Morgan: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from a sample of 976, has a shocking headline figure for the government of 56.5-43.5 to the Coalition on two-party preferred. However, this uses the respondent-allocated preference measure, and I as always favour the previous-election method which has become the industry standard. In keeping with Morgan’s recent trend, this produces a substantially different result of 54-46. On either measure Labor has gone substantially backwards since the previous Morgan face-to-face poll which covered the weekends of May 21-22 and 28-29. On the primary vote, Labor is down 2.5 per cent to 33.5 per cent, and the Coalition up 1 per cent to 46.5 per cent with the Greens steady on 12 per cent. The Coalition’s two-party preferred leads last time were 54-46 on the previous-election preference measure and 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,187 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 1 of 64
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  3. BW

    I think the coroner should be able to investigate deaths during delivery. To say a baby dying during birth was never a person is a perversion designed to avoid scrutiny.

  4. j6p (repeated just in case you missed in the last thread)

    Peace, brother.

    I have had direct experience of both the public and the private sector and the risks inherent in each. Not easy.

    The reason that the Government has not announced the details of the financial arrangments is because the Government cannot dictate these – it has to reach compromise agreements with Independents and the Greens. In the process the Government is conducting extensive discussions with industry sectors.

    If you are a transport company then I assume that the single biggest risk would be a change to the petrol tax. The other risk is that your partners or signatories might be particularly affected by a change in electricity prices. Since these are very likely to go up regardless of what the Gillard Government does (pretty well the entire power transmission system in Australia needs replacing and some of the older power stations will be replaced by gas-fired power stations) I assume that you would have built in some sort of price increase in your forward planning. This might be addressed by including a sliding scale in the cost structure of the contract to reflect changes in power bills.

    Perhaps you could deal with your major risk by negotiating a clause to the contract that includes floating adjustment rates to reflect any changes to the petrol tax and or electricity costs as a consequence of the Government’s climate change schemes?

    Anyway, best wishes with the contract.

  7. Joe6pack
    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 7:14 pm | Permalink

    [ george
    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 7:05 pm | Permalink

    Joe6Pack…. what on earth are you on about? Are you building a coal fired station, or starting a new mine? What possible problems will arise for your tiny project?

    Good grief some pbers here are such complete Drama Queens

    Give me $1,750,000 to risk and see how you feel before you you call me a queen]

  9. Frank

    [It’s Morgan with an ever decreasing voting sample.]

    A poll of 976 has a MOE of 3.1%. It’s a reasonable sample and it fits very well with a very stable trend.

  10. 1.7Million? As I said, drama queen. What’s your profit on that, 10%, 20%? so a small percentage either way from what will have probably a negligible effect on your service will mean nothing. Again, drama queen.

  11. 5101 janice2
    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 6:51 pm | Permalink

    [Great to hear – one very lucky budgie to survive the lice spray For future reference, there’s a product you can buy called “Pestene” which is a sulphur based powder for lice, fleas, mites etc. that birds tolerate very well. Also good for cats, dogs, chooks, goats, sheep and calves]

    janice2, thanks for your comments. I’m hoping it’s the lice stuff that caused it (in a way). Yesterday, for the first time, Budget got on the high perch in the cage. S/he’s slowly coming good. The problem is we’ve never been able to handle it (I’m going to say “it” for simplicity’s sake) but after it got on the high perch last night and had its head straight for a millisecond, I saw that the eye it keeps hiding looks very weepy.

    I can’t take it to the vet (aside from cost) because I reckon it would have a heart attack if it’s handled. I’d love to get it out, and bathe its eye. Someone suggested the lice spray got in its ear as well! But, I can tell you this, it is a lot happier (although I feel like letting it go – isn’t that awful).

    PS. I’m whispering this so other Bludgers don’t get upset about not talking politics.
    Ciao

  12. There’s no doubt the Labor Party exists for the amusement of the better classes, however, when is enough, enough? This particular government are worse than useless. They’ve become a shamful spectacle, that unfortunately shows the working man in a terrible light.

    I ask that the people here see this disgusting group for what they are, and reform. There is help, and you can become better people and better Australians. Please, please stop hating your fellow Australian.

  13. J6P,

    Multiply your 1.75 Million by 1000 (and maybe 10000) and you have why pwoer generators are not doing anything towards building capacity in Australia currently.

    Had the Coalition not reneged a few years ago, there would not be uncertainty now.

    As the Government has to negotiate this through quite a tricky path, it will take time to announce details.

    You, like many others, are stuck with the consequences of the opposition in Australia being utterly untrustworthy.

    It really isn’t this government’s fault – it is the cards they have been dealt.

  14. Boerwar

    Peace out. I apologies for the real world comment if it offended you but sometimes this is how i feel some here behave. I only went to grade 9 ,no un,i and have worked hard for what we have so sometimes as I said I fell a little cranky. maybe it is a psych problem trying to talk to you all more educated people.

  15. [strawman

    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 7:23 pm | Permalink

    There’s no doubt the Labor Party exists for the amusement of the better classes, however, when is enough, enough? This particular government are worse than useless. They’ve become a shamful spectacle, that unfortunately shows the working man in a terrible light.

    I ask that the people here see this disgusting group for what they are, and reform. There is help, and you can become better people and better Australians. Please, please stop hating your fellow Australian.
    ]

    Another Conservative Clown.

    Joined us cos your mate Rupert is going to force you to pay for rteading Liberal Taling points ??

    Well Yor BS ain’t going to fly here sunshine.

  17. [osted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 7:21 pm | Permalink

    1.7Million? As I said, drama queen. What’s your profit on that, 10%, 20%? so a small percentage either way from what will have probably a negligible effect on your service will mean nothing. Again, drama queen.]

    Well then you wanker give me 1.7 mill and see how you feel taking the risk without all the info. Or are you J.Packer.? George

  19. [Well then you wanker give me 1.7 mill and see how you feel taking the risk without all the info. Or are you J.Packer.? George]

    Topical Liberal voter – you want me to give you 1.7Million and then you want the government to guarantee you a profit 😉

  22. Joe6pack

    Dad only went to Grade 8 and he was a wonderful inventor. And a wonderful father and provider for us. Mum was a schoolteacher. Whatever, you should be proud of yourself. And I’m sure you are.

    It’s difficult making business decisions when there is uncertainty. You have to take a risk. And it’s hard when you’re in the process of selling/buying a house as well. But, to me, it seems that your decision would involve risk anyway.

    I work in an industry that finds housing for the disadvantaged, the very disadvantaged. I’m sure many of them would like to be in your shoes. While your problem seems great at the moment, at least you are in a position to make this type of decision. Others are not so fortunate.

    In fact, if you keep in mind the very disadvantaged, it might make your decision easier.

  23. [george

    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 7:32 pm | Permalink

    Well then you wanker give me 1.7 mill and see how you feel taking the risk without all the info. Or are you J.Packer.? George

    Topical Liberal voter – you want me to give you 1.7Million and then you want the government to guarantee you a profit
    ]

    Try Cashed Up Bogan like this:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1x51CEzp0uA

    Note the bloke being educated to the stand as Joe6Pack – no Uni for them.

  24. [It’s difficult making business decisions when there is uncertainty]

    The Libs are doing a great job of making sure there is that

  25. Oh my, this is just so depressing. The Morgan Poll, I mean. I keep thinking as each new, awful poll comes out, surely Australians aren’t so stupid as to think Tony Abott et al. could possibly be a viable government, and then I remember the 11.5 years of Howard and my heart sinks a little further.

  26. I think it’s about time people laid off Joe.

    He has the right to voice his misgivings – logic and calm discussion is better than letting fly with insults and the like.

  27. I thought labor only represented a few right wing factional hacks and one selected seat in nsw.

    Seems saying we should be x and breathing us for being y is easier than actually looking at who we are and what we do. And remember it is our fault if they are pig ignorant, especially if they are old journos with a pointless show.

  28. [Oh my, this is just so depressing. The Morgan Poll, I mean. I keep thinking as each new, awful poll comes out, surely Australians aren’t so stupid as to think Tony Abott et al. could possibly be a viable government, and then I remember the 11.5 years of Howard and my heart sinks a little further.]

    Harry, we’re a long way from the next election and many of Labor’s plans are still being implemented. These polls are little more than a sideshow until then

  29. [Frank Calabrese
    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 7:34 pm | Permalink

    george

    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 7:32 pm | Permalink

    Well then you wanker give me 1.7 mill and see how you feel taking the risk without all the info. Or are you J.Packer.? George

    Topical Liberal voter – you want me to give you 1.7Million and then you want the government to guarantee you a profit

    Try Cashed Up Bogan like this:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1x51CEzp0uA

    Note the bloke being educated to the stand as Joe6Pack – no Uni for them.]

    Are you not happy Frank, that thru my and my wife’s efforts we employ 5 other people who are well paid and there families are supported?

  31. Misfit,

    (I’m whispering 🙂 I think the culprit would have been the lice spray. As for the eye, I think you should take the risk and treat it – A smear of (human chloromycetin) eye ointment will fix it in one application. Some of the spray may have got into the eye and if it is sore that would make it hold its head to the side. What it doesn’t need now is an infection so the eye ointment will prevent that. Birds heal rather quickly so I think your little one looks like being tough enough to come through.

    I hope our fellow Bludgers will give us a little indulgence in this “vet” session. 🙂
    BTW something else you might find handy for future reference: You can buy a product called “Otoderm” or “Oti-clean” (the name depends on the brand) which is a clear fluid that is a cleanser for eyes and ears. This stuff is magic for cleaning wounds on animals, for ear and eye infections. A small bottle costs about $12 from the vet and you can buy it over the counter.

  32. 24 Dario
    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 7:36 pm | Permalink
    [It’s difficult making business decisions when there is uncertainty

    The Libs are doing a great job of making sure there is that]

    Dario, there’s always uncertainty. I obviously didn’t make my point very well.
    The uncertainty is always from a personal perspective. Not what is going on politically.

    Although, I agree whole-heartedly re the LNP “doing a great job of making sure there is that.”

    They are so irresponsible, I can’t work out why no-one (i.e. not one responsible economic commentator) is taking them to task over this.

    Talk about talk down our economy.
    They should be taken out and …..

  33. I agree, leave off Joe6p. He takes the time to share his thoughts and what confronts him in his life and therefore, how he thinks about politics. You can learn a lot from listening.

  34. HSO,

    Exactly – he doesn’t arc up unless provoked.

    There are some people here who should learn to accept that people’s opinions are different to their own.

  35. [Are you not happy Frank, that thru my and my wife’s efforts we employ 5 other people who are well paid and there families are supported?]

    So do many of us Joe, but we don’t whine about the fact that we are in the blessed position to run our own business and make more money than many underprivileged people see in a lifetime. There’s risk in running a business, any business. Maybe you need to seek advice and guidance from people who can help you in minimizing that risk. Otherwise 6-7% in managed funds isn’t that bad at the moment.

  36. strawman, the so called better classes are amused by almost anything ,bright colours reflections and distortions of all kinds

  37. Misfit

    [Although, I agree whole-heartedly re the LNP “doing a great job of making sure there is that.”

    They are so irresponsible, I can’t work out why no-one (i.e. not one responsible economic commentator) is taking them to task over this.]

    That raises an interesting point.

    Who should the Opposition be responsible to? Should they do their best to get in to Government or should they do the best for the country?

  38. [There are some people here who should learn to accept that people’s opinions are different to their own.]
    amen to that brother 🙂

  39. Thanks, George. BTW, I love your avatar. I am of the view that Labor need to hold their nerve and stick to getting through the significant legislation on CT, the MRRT and so on, and let the cards fall where they may. The thing that gets my goat is the ABC.

  43. strawman

    I’m pretty good at predicting this and I’m putting good money on that being your last comment here.

  44. [george
    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 7:43 pm | Permalink

    Are you not happy Frank, that thru my and my wife’s efforts we employ 5 other people who are well paid and there families are supported?

    So do many of us Joe, but we don’t whine about the fact that we are in the blessed position to run our own business and make more money than many underprivileged people see in a lifetime. There’s risk in running a business, any business. Maybe you need to seek advice and guidance from people who can help you in minimizing that risk. Otherwise 6-7% in managed funds isn’t that bad at the moment.]

    Righto smart ass– tell me now what the carbon tax will be and if it includes fuel and parts as well as servicing oils etc. by next wed at the latest. otherwise stfu about nothing you understand.
    Or are you a kid just being a wanker?

  46. Dio,

    I suppose that depends on whether you think politics is a sport or is about delivering the best outcomes for those being governed.

    The balance is somewhere in between, of course, as you can’t deliver much as Opposition.

  47. William, if you’re about. I don’t think I’ve ever complained about another poster, but I would draw your attention to strawman @ 38. Contravenes guidelines for posters, I would have thought?

  48. does anyone know what this is about?

    LATIKAMBOURKE | 1 hour 23 minutes ago
    [Go Albo!!! RT @AlboMP: Good on Simon Katich for speaking his mind]

  49. [Police also used tear gas and beanbag bullets to quell detainees who torched tented accommodation during the riot in March.]

    What’s a “beanbag bullet”?

  50. Harry 25,

    Try to stay upbeat.

    Next two months are going to be action packed with policy announcement. Plus economy pick up, budget initiatives etc coming in over the next six.

    See how things are in 6 months. Until then, as hard as it is, all we can do is hold on for the ride.

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