Morgan: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from a sample of 976, has a shocking headline figure for the government of 56.5-43.5 to the Coalition on two-party preferred. However, this uses the respondent-allocated preference measure, and I as always favour the previous-election method which has become the industry standard. In keeping with Morgan’s recent trend, this produces a substantially different result of 54-46. On either measure Labor has gone substantially backwards since the previous Morgan face-to-face poll which covered the weekends of May 21-22 and 28-29. On the primary vote, Labor is down 2.5 per cent to 33.5 per cent, and the Coalition up 1 per cent to 46.5 per cent with the Greens steady on 12 per cent. The Coalition’s two-party preferred leads last time were 54-46 on the previous-election preference measure and 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,187 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Carlton said

    “the use of force or violence would threaten the peace, order and good government of the Commonwealth.”

    Since you cannot call today’s government good, Jones would be clear of all charges

  2. [Labor is not alone. Similar complaints have emerged from the Victorian Liberal Party…]
    Thanks Peg. It shows that it is not necesaarily what Labor is doing that is the problem but what all parties face it seems due to changing social circumstances I would suggest.

  3. shellbell @ 3001:

    If Vince Bruce’s outcome is anything to go by, I think Magistrate Maloney is looking reasonably good – Parliament having found 24:16 in the former’s favour. I did hear, however, that Bruce retired from the Bench shortly thereafter(?).

    I also see that that old queen and Queen lover David Flint criticised Bruce for going to the media to support his campaign to stay of the Bench.

    If Maloney does succeed he should draw strength from former Queensland Justice Angelo Vasta, who, after being dismissed for an adverse finding by the Fitzgerald Inquiry, resumed his career at the Queensland bar, seemingly oblivious to the fact that he now he appears before judges who were formerly his brothers in law.

  4. Gary

    I realise that but you are clearly supporting one side over another aren’t you?

    I support the party review recommendations being accepted by the party leadership as a starting point. I support the current numbers men being turfed out asap; and a swathe of members and senators being turfed out later by a rejuvenated and powerful membership. I support a progressive philosophy and platform devised by that active membership.

    In short, I support the survival by renewal of the party, which I believe is doomed if it doesn’t do these things.

    I support Faulkner and Cavalier. I support whatever ‘side’ supports fundamental change in the party over whatever ‘side’ supports the current hollowing out and slide into moral and political decay.

  5. Gary,
    [It shows that it is not necesaarily what Labor is doing that is the problem but what all parties face it seems due to changing social circumstances I would suggest.]
    And yet, the membership of the Greens Party is increasing 🙂

  6. Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    PM and Combet Presser on #Climate Change Factsheets to dispel the lies #auspol
    8 seconds ago

  7. [MsAdventure
    Posted Tuesday, June 14, 2011 at 9:20 am | Permalink

    Some days ago a link was posted to a page where one could email their Climate Tax Change Myth questions, I thought I had bookmarked it now can’t find it anywhere.

    Would some kind Bludger remember the site, I am interested in posting it on another forum where there is a discussion currently taking place complete with all the usual furphies.]

    I’m not sure if this is the one, but I found it pretty good,
    http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/03/08/academy-of-science-how-has-climate-changed-during-the-recent-past/

  8. Pegasus

    Extremist always get high memberships, just look at One Nation and Sarah Palin, crazy people finds it easier to get their message accross

  9. Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    Abbott is rumoured to be planning his 3 LieSheets to counter the Govt’s Factsheets on #climatechange #auspol
    8 seconds ago

  10. [Carlton said

    “the use of force or violence would threaten the peace, order and good government of the Commonwealth.”

    Since you cannot call today’s government good, Jones would be clear of all charges]

    Wrong on two points:

    First, ‘Carlton’ did not say it, charlton did; and

    Second, although charlton did say it, it was quoted from the subject Act.

    But be that is it may, touche anyway.

  11. jv,

    Well said.

    I agree absolutely. Being a realist I know that the Greens will probably (forever the optimist though) never be in government in its own right. Therefore it is crucial we have a strong Labor Party that has a progressive policy platform.

  12. Dario and my say,

    Yep, the more Laborites who come out with the ad hominem comments and bay as one, I know I am having an effect 🙂

    By all means continue to stick your heads in the sand 🙂

  13. [Dan_Gulberry Dan Gulberry
    @jamesmassola @JuliaGillard @midwinter_ball @TonyAbbottMHR @SenatorBobBrown How much does @SMirabellaMP pay people to have dinner with her?]
    Dan
    Poetry. Sheer poetry!

  14. I wish one of the Government ministers would drive it in to these thick skulled idiots masquarading as journalists by asking them if they think it is a good idea for Qantas passengers being hit with carbon Taxes in Europe because we don’t have a price on carbon.
    Do they want everything that goes overseas from australia to cost more because we have no price on carbon.

  15. [The signal was the proportion of members signed up on discounted memberships for students or those on incomes of less than $32,000 a year. These discounted memberships are the cheapest, most effective means of stacking.]

    Um, we have an ageing membership.

    It might surprise people to learn that retirees aren’t big earners.

    My branch isn’t very big – there’s about a dozen of us – and only about two would be paying more than minimum membership, because the rest are over sixty.

    Of course, I could have cunningly stacked it with geriatrics…..

  16. Hello all.

    During QT, I’ll be at a medical appointment I can’t re-schedule (nothing serious; but Howie left us very short of some medical personnel), so I’ll appreciate your comments!

  17. Why boycott the Dalia Lama ???
    But we know the answer to that don’t we !!
    _______________________
    Rudd and Gillard both seem so scared of the Chinese that it’s almost a joke.
    ………even Obama say him recently
    In the Chinese Embassy they must be laughing over their sweet and sour lunch,at having bluffed two weak leaders so easily
    Shame Julia Shame Kevin
    …and it’s dumb electoral politics…as the man has many admirers who will be very shocked .

  18. charlton @ 3059:

    Erratum: defences to the charge of sedition are found at s 80.3, not s 80.5.

    Apologies to anyone was who was charged between posts.

  19. Spot on Gaffhood: the world is acting – against us becuas we have no CO2price.

    Thats the sound of the “exports will be uncompetitive” argument being flushed down the toilet. They sure will be – if we DONT have a CO2 price.

  20. dovif,
    [Extremist always get high memberships, just look at One Nation and Sarah Palin, crazy people finds it easier to get their message accross]
    Coalition and Labor – pushing the same meme.

    By all means keep sticking your heads in the sand.

    Which Party is still around and will soon have the BoP, despite being considered irrelevant for so long and receiving very little objective coverage in the MSM?

  21. Come on OZ journos – does ANY SINGLE ONE of you have the guts to ask Abbott about the EU levy being imposed on QANTAS becuase we dont have a CO2 price?

    Your integrity is definitely at stake.

  22. Julia smacked that whacko down.

    Asked about average carbon prices etc o/seas she said boy haven’t you got some heavy work in front of you working your way through the PC report where it is all spelt out.

    Whack, idiot.

  23. “Which Party is still around and will soon have the BoP, despite being considered irrelevant for so long and receiving very little objective coverage in the MSM?”

    The answer is the ALP.

    It will have the BOP in a few weeks, able to choose to get support from either the Greens or the LNP, to pass its legislation.

  24. ASHGHEBRANIOUS | 2 minutes ago
    [#abcnews24 Be interesting how they write up this presser. PM seems to be refreshed and ready for #qt #auspol]

  25. did u all hear joe say trying on abc 24 if the abc gave us more of both sides then
    well rang the abc and remined them that if they tried harder to give the both sides.
    the gov, would not have to to TRY

  26. Dr Good,
    [It will have the BOP in a few weeks, able to choose to get support from either the Greens or the LNP, to pass its legislation.]
    Well then, business as usual with Labor and the Coalition combining to vote down progressive bills of the Greens that are in the interests of the workers instead of the interests of big business 😉

  27. Can someone tweet Phil Coorey and challenge him to be a proper journalist and describe precisely what he saw – and didn’t see – in Nauru.

  28. [Julia smacked that whacko down.

    Asked about average carbon prices etc o/seas she said boy haven’t you got some heavy work in front of you working your way through the PC report where it is all spelt out.

    Whack, idiot.]

    did you also notice she is using names of reporters, so we know who asks what

  29. &imgrefurl=http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1556906/Nauru-to-sign-refugee-convention-Abbott&h=225&w=300&sz=66&tbnid=Gt1gtzHTcQQ7vM:&tbnh=87&tbnw=116&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dpictures%2Bof%2Bnauru%2Band%2Bthe%2Bdetention%2Bcenter%26tbm%3Disch%26tbo%3Du&zoom=1&q=pictures+of+nauru+and+the+detention+center&hl=en&usg=__LvWsqhom1W6_zJ_m0clTxj7u4EM=&sa=X&ei=rMr2TeiOEsKxrAek-7WHCA&ved=0CCMQ9QEwAw

    not sure if this will work

  30. [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Tuesday, June 14, 2011 at 12:02 pm | Permalink

    Fes, (Mike Carlton’s) a damn sight better than some of the tools on SKY (Kenny comes to mind)

    When he picked up Katter’s hat, raised it a foot or so and dropped it to the table, saying (to the Young Lib nong who made the comment that CC was “just another theory like ‘gravity’”)

    “Gravity? There’s gravity!”

    … it was a Golden Moment in Australian television, and maybe even in the debate at large. ]

    It was indeed, BB. As was the nong’s admission about CC being just another scientific theory like gravity.

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