Morgan: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from a sample of 976, has a shocking headline figure for the government of 56.5-43.5 to the Coalition on two-party preferred. However, this uses the respondent-allocated preference measure, and I as always favour the previous-election method which has become the industry standard. In keeping with Morgan’s recent trend, this produces a substantially different result of 54-46. On either measure Labor has gone substantially backwards since the previous Morgan face-to-face poll which covered the weekends of May 21-22 and 28-29. On the primary vote, Labor is down 2.5 per cent to 33.5 per cent, and the Coalition up 1 per cent to 46.5 per cent with the Greens steady on 12 per cent. The Coalition’s two-party preferred leads last time were 54-46 on the previous-election preference measure and 51.5-48.5 on respondent-allocated.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,187 thoughts on “Morgan: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. It will be interesting to see how this transpires this morning, or whether the right can shut it down beforehand:

    Labor faces backbench rumblings
    The Government is bracing for a fiery caucus meeting this morning, after Labor backbenchers demanded they be involved in making decisions on the Malaysian deal, live cattle exports, and the mining tax.

    The Left faction’s Doug Cameron says caucus should have a say on the “big issues” rather than the decisions being handed down by ministers as a fait accompli.

    “One of the problems is the executive makes the decisions then lock in the minister, then the ministers then lock in other MPs, and away it goes,” Senator Cameron told ABC Radio’s AM.

    “There’s a need, I think, for more debate and a more robust caucus.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/06/14/3243160.htm?section=justin

  2. OPT:

    I’m fairly sure there was a time when long weekends were not polled

    On Insiders Niki Savva was sure that a Newspoll this week was the reason for government announcements last week, and no one else said there won’t be one. If even the press gallery doesn’t know, who does? Savva could have been right about the announcements, since maybe the government didn’t know either.

    Sossman:

    What happened to the old Censure Motion trick?

    Surely we’re overdue for a bit of pre-playschool ranting?

    It could well happen. It is a House day on ABC1.

  3. Paul J

    I watched the part you recommended. Good. Still was hard to listen to that Concetta woman. What an odious piece of work, and katter does nut job very well

  4. JAMESMASSOLA | 12 minutes ago

    dinner with @JuliaGillard now worth $7600 in @midwinter_ball auction, @TonyAbbottMHR on $4900, still no bids for @SenatorBobBrown

  5. dinner with @JuliaGillard now worth $7600 in @midwinter_ball auction, @TonyAbbottMHR on $4900, still no bids for @SenatorBobBrown

    Who wants to hand the hat around for a collection? We might get him cheap.

  6. FWIW I don’t know that Carlton has the kind of presence needed to host his own show. A regular appearance commentator by all means, but not sure about him as host.

  9. Dan Gullbery @ 2362:

    Re: Sedition & Alan Jones:

    When Ruddock appeared on Jones’ show on 14 Nov. 2005 he had this to say about sedition:

    ‘…the offence is one if the person urges by force or violence the overthrowing of a government, or interfering with an election, or encouraging other people to use – or groups of people – to use force or violence against other groups.’

    On the face of it some of Jones’ on air comments appear to be seditious. However, on closer examination of what he said (ie, ‘he cautioned his listeners not to take the law into their own hands.’), it’s unlikely that he would have been convicted if charges had been laid. Moreover, the charge of sedition requires the written approval of the Attorney-General. Need I say more.

    Historically the charge of sedition is a rare bird indeed, with only three convictions pursuant to the Crimes Act & the Customs Act in the period 1920 to 2005:

    1. In the late ’40s Frank Sharkey (Sec. of the CPA) was imprisoned for 18 months for supporting a Soviet invasion of Australia in certain circumstances;

    2. Again in the late ’40s Gilbert Burns (CPA member) was sentenced after appeal to 6 months gaol for declaring he’d support the USSR if there was war; and

    3. In 1951 William Burns was sentenced to six months imprisonment for ‘writing seditious articles.’

    There was also a successful prosecution brought under the Queensland Criminal Code. In 1960 Brian Cooper was imprisoned for two months for ‘urging the natives of PNG to demand independence from Australia.’ After having lost his appeal to the High Court, he suicided.

    At the end of 2005 the Howard Government enacted the Anti-Terrorism Act, which inter alia ‘repealed most of the existing provisions on sedition in the the Crimes Act’ and introduced new provisions into the Criminal Code.

    The new provisions as they relate to inciting violence are in section 80.2(5):

    ‘Urging Violence with the community

    Person commits an offence if:

    (a) the person urges a group or groups (whether distinguished by race, religion, nationality or political opinion) to use force or violence against another group or groups…; and

    (b) the use of force or violence would threaten the peace, order and good government of the Commonwealth.’

    The maximum penalty is imprisonment for 7 years and the Attorney-General’s approval in writing is required before a charge under this section is laid (s.80.5) Defences are found in s.80.5.

    Whether Jones’s comments would be caught by the new provisions is a moot point and also academic as the new provisions were given ascent very shortly after his tirade.

  11. Just listening to 2UE (for a change) and – surprise, surprise – it’s no better than 2GB.

    1. Overseas Aid
    Apparently Australia donated $200 million recently to a worldwide vaccination campaign. Caller after caller was on saying that they’re “completely in favour of giving overseas aid…” BUT, why does it have to be so much. We could have built hospitals and schools etc. with half of that money by giving only $100 million to the vaccination program.

    Question to Bludgers:
    What if we’d given only $100 million?

    (a) The callers would have said,

    “That’s fine. Congratulations to the government for sponsoring this vital program with the appropriate amount of foreign aid money. I’m in favour of foreign aid.”

    (b) The callers would have said,

    “A $100 million? That much?. Crikey, we need hospitals and schools here! People are homeless in Queensland! Gillard only gave $800 million to Queensland! Stingy! And all because they’re tanking in the Queensland polls! We should have only given $50 million to this crappy program where most of the money will be wasted anyway. Pink Batts. School Halls. Solar Rebates and now they’ve wrecked the lives and homes of Aussies who need help. But don’t think I’m not in favour of foreign aid. I am. However, my dear old dad used to say, ‘Charity begins at home’. We should petition the Governor-General and get her to sack this collection of incompetents.”

    2. The Beef Live Export Industry
    “Gillard is to blame for this happening. The government should have known. Now they’re equally to blame for shutting exports down. They acted too late and then they over-reacted. This mob can’t do anything right. They should give compensation to farmers. And they’ll probably stuff that up too. Pink Batts. School Halls. Solar Rebates… and now they’ve wrecked the meat industry.”

    3. The NBN
    “There’s already technology out there that’s faster than the NBN. Some German scientists have figured out a way to teleport matter. And it arrives before it was sent. OK so it’s only some weird particle whose name I can’t pronounce, and they needed a $25 billion cyclotron to do it, plus two nuclear power stations to provide the electricity, but if it follows the usual pathway to commercialization, we could be teleporting things down the internet within 10 years. Once again this bunch of clowns has dudded us, wasting taxpayer money on obsolete technology.

    CUE: Plummy voiced North Shore caller: “What I’d like to ask is what’s the objection to writing letters to each other? I always write a letter, on paper and it’s so much more personal and warm.”

    Shock-Jock: “You’re not wrong Cynthia. There’s nothing like a card or a letter to give that personal touch. I hate email. But think about this: if we all wrote letters, this mob would have to make Australia Post work. And they’ll probably stuff that up too. I received a letter the other day that was posted in April. Pink Batts. School Halls. Solar Rebates… and now they’ve wrecked Australia Post. Thanks for your call.

    (Note: that last one did leave me shaking at the idiocy of it.)

  13. Dan:

    Yes, i know. But radio is very different to television, as Bolt is discovering. I’ve only ever seen him on qanda, where he is the perfect foil for the multiple idiocies of the Liberals. I’m just not sure that if he had to carry his own TV show that it would work.

  15. Here is another article that counters the prevailing myth that all people smugglers are “evil”.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/tricked-boys-languish-in-adult-prison-20110613-1g0k0.html#poll

    Federal police have ignored Immigration Department assessments and extracts of birth certificates showing the boys are under 18, contravening federal government policy to return children apprehended on asylum seeker boats.

    Instead, the boys – aged 15 and 16 who were cooks and deck hands on an asylum-seeker boat – face five years’ jail in a high security adult jail under harsh mandatory sentencing laws.

    The real people smugglers, who received more than $10,000 per asylum seeker, left the boat before it entered Australian waters.

    Three children, living in poverty in an Indonesian village, duped by the real people smugglers, are now being treated as adult criminals in Australia and facing long mandatory sentences.

  18. It will be interesting to see how this transpires this morning, or whether the right can shut it down beforehand:

    Still on the right and left stuff jv and it’s people like yourself that advocate a peaceful internal reform agenda for Labor is possible. I’m afraid it isn’t when the ‘left’ seem to hate the ‘right’ with a vengeance and vice versa as clearly shown here by your good self.

  21. “One of the problems is the executive makes the decisions then lock in the minister, then the ministers then lock in other MPs, and away it goes,” Senator Cameron told ABC Radio’s AM.

    “There’s a need, I think, for more debate and a more robust caucus.”

    Funny, I thought all that was fixed when Labor sacked Rudd. He was the problem wasn’t he? If not, does this mean we will now see Feeney, Farrell, Arbib and Shorten sacked?

  22. The new Senator Fielding has arrived!:
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/new-senator-may-bring-dlp-back-to-life/story-fn59niix-1226074491080

    Global warming is not man made according to DLP Sneator-elect John Madigan. His evidence for this claim?

    He concludes that what is happening now with floods and fires and droughts is no different from what happened way back when. He cites Dorothea Mackellar’s epic poem My Country, published in 1908, as further evidence.

  23. However, Mr Ferguson says Andrew Forrest is simply tyring to pressure the Government to alter the tax to benefit his company.

    “We’ve always known that people like Andrew Forrest are threatening to take a constitutional challenge unless we designed a tax to suit his personal needs,” Mr Ferguson said.

    “That’s what this is all about – not about us designing a taxation system based on the record profits being made in the mining industry to suit the best needs of all of Australians, but designing a tax system to suit the needs of Andrew Forrest.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/06/14/3243216.htm

    Some might say that Forrest overplayed his hand. In being the public face of the anti-RSPT campaign he has played no small role in bringing about the revised policy by forcing the govt to backdown. It seems a bit rich now to be complaining that you don’t like the compromised version.

  25. I mean, on principle I support the depoliticisation (is that a even word?) of the ABC but I doubt the Coalition would continue with this approach in good faith when they take power again.

    ALP is continually hamstrung by its own morality, and the fact that it usually tries to follow-through on promises.

    LNP has no such concerns. Conscience, to them, only applies if and when it is poliically expedient.

    Otherwise: tobacco would be being phased out, and they certainly wouldn’t be taking such donations. AS policy would be good and bi-partisan. Mining tax would have been passed. Climate policy would simply flow through without ructions.

    But they ARE taking tobacco donations. AS policy is a political football. Big miners hold sway in LNP meeting room. Idiots like Minchin have influence on climate change policy. I could go on, and on, and on ….. ad infinitum.

  26. radio is very different to television, as Bolt is discovering

    Blot isn’t even cutting it on radio. Melbourne Talking Rednecks is a ratings flop.

  28. Gary

    I’m afraid it isn’t when the ‘left’ seem to hate the ‘right’ with a vengeance and vice versa as clearly shown here by your good self.

    It is the party doing this, not me. See the article and what Cameron said. It is clearly tied in with the current calls for fundamental party reform. And it will be interesting to gauge the attitude of the dominant faction. And least it will be for those who see fundamental reform as life or death for the party.

  29. More on Labor’s membership woes.

    Victorian branch members are deserting the ALP in droves, fed up with a party they say doesn’t know what it stands for any more.

    The party that does have the sense of a social movement about it – The Greens – is seen to have eroded Labor’s appeal, particularly in the inner city and particularly with the young.

    The latest membership figures show the rot is continuing. Raw numbers do not reveal how many members are active or how many are the work of branch stackers. A newsletter prepared by factionally unaligned members circulating among ALP branches recently pointed to strong evidence that the stackers remain busy.

    The signal was the proportion of members signed up on discounted memberships for students or those on incomes of less than $32,000 a year. These discounted memberships are the cheapest, most effective means of stacking.

    In three federal electorates – Holt, Gorton and Scullin – such discounts comprised more than 90 per cent of members. In Bruce, Calwell, Hotham and Isaacs they exceeded 80 per cent of memberships. In four other electorates they account for more than 70 per cent. So the full story of public abandonment may be worse than it appears.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/no-light-on-the-hill-20110613-1g09t.html

  30. FWIW I don’t know that Carlton has the kind of presence needed to host his own show. A regular appearance commentator by all means, but not sure about him as host.

    Fes, he’d a damn sight better than some of the tools on SKY (Kenny comes to mind)

  32. zoomster and Gary,

    Gotta love your spin 😉

    Three poor, duped Indonesian children detained as people smugglers by the Australian government are “evil” – Yeah, right.

  34. Maybe the big bidders are holding off: A private dinner with the PM at the Lodge or Kirribilli is a damn good prize and must be worth more than $7,600 to some people.

  36. Victorian branch members are deserting the ALP in droves, fed up with a party they say doesn’t know what it stands for any more.

    The party that does have the sense of a social movement about it – The Greens – is seen to have eroded Labor’s appeal, particularly in the inner city and particularly with the young.

    The latest membership figures show the rot is continuing. Raw numbers do not reveal how many members are active or how many are the work of branch stackers. A newsletter prepared by factionally unaligned members circulating among ALP branches recently pointed to strong evidence that the stackers remain busy.

    The signal was the proportion of members signed up on discounted memberships for students or those on incomes of less than $32,000 a year. These discounted memberships are the cheapest, most effective means of stacking.

    In three federal electorates – Holt, Gorton and Scullin – such discounts comprised more than 90 per cent of members. In Bruce, Calwell, Hotham and Isaacs they exceeded 80 per cent of memberships. In four other electorates they account for more than 70 per cent. So the full story of public abandonment may be worse than it appears.

    Did they mention anywhere in that article that this is not uniquely a Labor problem?

  38. I just had a read of the AM transcript with Senator Cameron this morning.

    He makes some really good points about Cattle export and Malaysia, praises Minister Bowen and talks about changes to the mining tax in the longer term.

    All those wetting themselves about “backbench revolt” should take a deep breath.

    It is just a lot of noise about nothing more than good realistic observations and statements by Senator Cameron.

  39. Three poor, duped Indonesian children detained as people smugglers by the Australian government are “evil” – Yeah, right.

    But who were the nasties that duped them? The bloody people smugglers. Come on!

  41. Public service workers are being pressured not to attend a rally against the NSW government’s industrial relations changes, unions say.

    Government agencies are using “intimidating tactics” to prevent workers from attending the rally on Wednesday, Unions NSW Secretary Mark Lennon said.

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/workers-intimidated-about-ir-rally-unions-20110614-1g0u7.html

    Elect a Liberal government, and the first thing they do is attack employees.

  42. People smugglers are evil ? Ask Mr Soccer Les Murray. He gave an interview on the ABC describing how his family escaped from behind the Iron Curtain by using people smugglers.

  43. Elect a Liberal government, and the first thing they do is attack employees.

    Maybe some of the employees in this country need another Liberal government to remind them which side of their bread is buttered.

  44. Gary,

    I have no idea as to the situation in Victoria but from reading that article you posted neither does the author.

    No figures, major assumptions about discounted memberships being all stackers etc.

    Nothing more than following the meme of labor in trouble. Perhaps it is at a branch level but geeze this article is based on nothing but the assumptions of the author.

    Once again those wetting themselves over this article should take a deep breath.

  47. Pegasus & James J

    I see Gillard attempted, as expected, to shut down dissent in the caucus this morning, rather than discuss the issues. Cameron was actually heckled by right-wing faction members when he rose to speak. That would sit with their generally puerile mentality, and gives good insight into their attitude to any change.

    It also supports Rod Cavalier’s pessimism from the end of the Age article:

    Cavalier holds out little hope. ”The Faulkner review is strongly supported by the party membership. It will be rejected because the people who control the ALP have overwhelming material cause to reject it,” he says.

    ”A democratic party means most senators and MLCs will have to look to a new career. The decline in the party will take another decade and more; in the meantime, this once great party will continue to harvest just enough votes to maintain their careers.

    ”Every other crisis of identity or sense of loss of purpose took place when we were in Opposition or immediately after going out of government. This crisis has coincided with Labor in government, so recently in six states and the Commonwealth. The great myth is that this is cyclical. This is not like anything we have seen before.”

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/no-light-on-the-hill-20110613-1g09t.html#ixzz1PD8bZA4F

  48. Gary,

    Did they mention anywhere in that article that this is not uniquely a Labor problem?

    In an article of around 45 paragraphs (quick count) there was this:

    Labor is not alone. Similar complaints have emerged from the Victorian Liberal Party…

    followed by 7 paragraphs about political disengagement in general that did not relate specifically to the Coalition or to the Victorian political scene.

    The overwhelming bulk of the article focussed on Labor in Victoria.

  49. He concludes that what is happening now with floods and fires and droughts is no different from what happened way back when. He cites Dorothea Mackellar’s epic poem My Country, published in 1908, as further evidence.

    I can go one better. The Bible was written thousands of years earlier, and it’s full of meteorological facts, mostly contained in the Old Testament. The cane toad invasion of Australia was presaged by the biblical plague of frogs. It’s all there.

    😉

  50. Fes, [Mike Carlton’s

    a damn sight better than some of the tools on SKY (Kenny comes to mind)]

    When he picked up Katter’s hat, raised it a foot or so and dropped it to the table, saying (to the Young Lib nong who made the comment that CC was “just another theory like ‘gravity'”)

    “Gravity? There’s gravity!”

    … it was a Golden Moment in Australian television, and maybe even in the debate at large.

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