Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing slightly from 54-46 to 53-47, although the primary votes are little changed: the Coalition is down one to 46 per cent, while Labor and the Greens are steady on 34 per cent and 12 per cent. As Bernard Keane reports, voters were also asked who was to blame for rising cost of living, which produced results dramatically polarised by voting intention, with Liberal supporters blaming the government. There are also questions on which party is most trusted to handle various issues, which finds Labor going further backwards on economic management but the results otherwise showing little change since January. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents say the minority government arrangement has been bad for the country against 28 per cent good, with Liberal supporters predictably being most negative. I should have the full report up within the hour.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,142 thoughts on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition”

  1. Misfit,
    [budgie: Still surviving (found out that one of the kids sprayed him/her with lice stuff the day before the head drooping) although still spends most of time with head to one side]

    Great to hear – one very lucky budgie to survive the lice spray 🙂 For future reference, there’s a product you can buy called “Pestene” which is a sulphur based powder for lice, fleas, mites etc. that birds tolerate very well. Also good for cats, dogs, chooks, goats, sheep and calves :D:

  2. [In WA for instance, Labor only needs some solid leadership and it is within 2-3 seats of gaining power from CB.]

    It is the same in Victoria, where I think the coalition has a one seat majority(?). Entirely winnable.

  3. Charlton

    Despite Mr Howard’s silly attempt (and, to the US, rather embarrassing) attempt to implicate ANZUS, that treaty has nothing to do with our presence in Afghanistan.

    You will have noticed that neither Mr Abbott nor Ms Gillard ever refers to the ANZUS Treaty as a reason why we are in this war.

  4. Amigo Finns :kiss:

    There was a young dolphin from the coast
    Who everyone loved the most
    He was a great entertainer
    And animal trainer
    But that mean Diog ate him on toast

  5. Big Ship 5083,
    Agree 100%. Know some footy players back in those Kings Days and they were from the conservative country”cockie” background. They were loyal to Kings but gee didn’t they bag Jones.
    On another level a relly of mine went to dinner at Jones house. Can’t go into too much detail suffice to say can you imagine a room with say 30 at the dinner table waited on by handsome butlers( if right word ) dressed in full livery( never really understood the word livery but always wanted to use it somewhere).
    Piano player starts some piece of a triumphal march and all 30 heads at the table as AJ makes a grand entrance in flowing gowns to the accompaniament(sp?) of said triumphal march. The verbal description relayed to me is streets ahead of what I’ve tried to describe to you. Make of it what you will.

  6. mytwobobs worth

    no ones scared here; no fear . have no idea what you are talking about.

    fear is ABBOTT of course United we stand Ununited we fall.

    time to watch the footy with my beloved.

  7. Dio
    Why are you pleased with the midwife decision? Is it because of the when life starts issue or is it because she needs to be accountable at law for what may have been malpractice? Or is there something else you are interested in?

  8. Charlton # 4921

    [I don’t think reference to Gallipoli and the Vietnam conflict is very helpful in the debate over of our invovlement in Afghanistan.]

    Probably not Gallipoli. But Vietnam and Afghanistan, absolutely, with huge sets of bells ringing! Big Power defeated by guerillas using the Fabian strategy – and believe me, given Ho Chi Minh’s education as well as his understanding Fabian Socialism, he certainly knew what he was doing. Probably used relevant parts of Livy’s account of the strategy as a primmer! See #4688 page 94.

    [We have an emerging military and extant economic superpower to the north of us and we are a nation of some 21 million.

    If China was to look further afield for say its supply of natural resources free of any encumbrance, I wonder which country they’d have in mind?

    Maintaining close relations with the US is arguably crucial for our national security and possibly our survival.]

    Not blo#dy Yellow Peril and Great and Powerful Friends again! I thought Australians got over the former, if not in December 1969, when

    Following the withdrawal of 25,000 US troops from South Vietnam, and plans by the US Government to withdraw another 50,000, the Prime Minister (Sir John Gorton) advises any further substantial reductions will include Australian forces.
    http://www.vvaa.org.au/calendar.htm

    at least during the 1983 election campaign when Hawkie quipped “Isn’t that where the Reds are?” in reply to Fraser’s advice to Australians to hide their savings under the bed if labor won the election.

    Gawd. Some Australians and their The …. are coming! The …. are coming

    Starts with The convicts are coming – again! dockside protests (encoraged by Bourke & WC Wentworth) against an attempt by some Sydney colonists (1840s) to land convicts for labour after transportation had ceased c1840. Switches to The Chinese are coming during the early Gold Rushes. From there, Yellow Peril just keeps on keeping on!

    Just for a while, there, around the Crimean War, lo & behold, The Russians are coming! The Russians are coming! That one was hysterical enough for colonial governments (inc Q) to build forts!

    [Anti-Russian sentiment began to take hold in the Australian media in November 1864 after the publication by The Times in London of an article which asserted that the Colonies were on the edge of a Russian invasion. … Australian newspapers, including The Age and Argus, took The Times’ claims more seriously and began to write on the need to increase defence capabilities to protect against the threat of a Russian invasion]

    Nor did it stop there! The Russians are coming hysteria reoccurred like malaria bouts, as the link above details -“hysteria” is not an hyperbole by any means! – until Russia lost the Battle of Tsushima Strait, reviving The Japs are coming! The Japs are coming! There was a slight slew of The Germans are coming after Germany annexed NE New Guinea, which Qld had annexed, but the Brits made it unannex it – now that was a Great Big Qld To-do; that was!

    Then the Chinese were coming again (N Q, inc Palmer River Gold Fields) before The Japs are coming! The Japs are coming! after the British coerced the Qld Government into accepting Japanese migrants, mainly pearlers. That spate of The … are coming! so hysterical (even by Lambing Flats standards) it’s considered to have provided the final impetus to Federation!

    In the 1890s there was growing opposition to Japanese pearl-shellers in Northern Australian ports. The Queensland government signed the Anglo-Japanese Naval Treaty of 1894, which gave Japanese citizens unrestricted entry into Queensland. The other colonies during the Federation movement forced Queensland to exclude the Japanese.

    Indeed, in newly Federated Oz, Britain’s raft of Anglo-Japanese Trade/ Military treaties created so much hysteria, even at parliamentary level; resulting not only in a bigger Oz army & well-trained militia, and the establishment of the Oz Navy, but the first moves to swap The USA for the UK as Australia’s Great and Powerful Friend

    And that, Folks, only takes us to around 1914. C Class Mandates, Oz’s invention of “appeasement” as a policy around the time Japan invaded Manchuria (1931) – keep appeasing the Japanese in the hope they’ll buy whatever they want off us, not invade us. 48 years later, with Japan tamed, blow me down if Mao’s victory didn’t creat Yellow Peril hysteria again, adding Domino Effect and Forward Defence to YP & GaPF

    Damned if I know what about Australia and some Australians create a great need to live in a near constant state of hysteria about imminent invasion. Here we are, over160 years since the Sydney Dock demos, and exactly how many of them have invaded the Island Continent?

    Australians all chuck hissy fits! Gawd!

  9. RNM

    [AJ makes a grand entrance in flowing gowns to the accompaniament(sp?) of said triumphal march.]

    As you do!

  10. [time to watch the footy with my beloved.]

    All the best My Say!

    Don’t let the negative Nellys get you down!

    Julia Gillard is our Prime Minister — no matter what Jones, Murdoch, their ABC and Thomas “I hate Gillard” Paine say!

    Stuff ’em all I say. Go Gillard Labor, long may she reign over us. God (Dawkins) save our Gillard!

  11. 5080 Mytwobobsworth
    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 6:38 pm | Permalink

    [No he is in Sydney and he did tell me to go and buy one at Coles is that right?]

    Yep, Coles. Must be east-coast-wide (if not Australia-wide) – I’m in country Victoria.
    Makes you wonder about inflated coffee prices though.

  12. ” ….even at the last election, with an ounce of luck, at least two more seats could have come to Labor. If that had been the case we would have heard zilch about “minority government” for the ever complaining conservatives.”

    So true Mark and remember Victoria is within a seat or two of a Labor government. If you believe the crikey rumour things might be very interesting in that state soon. From my point of view this minority government thing has been the best ever. Just like the first Bracks government that was really on it’s toes and progressive.

  13. okay, after reflection i feel maybe i have voiced my concern overt the carbon tax to strongly for some here so I will give just a short explanation why.

    Next Friday I have to sign ,or not, the biggest contract in my life which will in the long run be great for my little operation if it all works out well.

    Now this will also involve some risk and expenditure at the start which is also fine in the normal run of things, and one which in the pass I, or i should say My wife and i have taken and generally we have done well.

    The Problem now is I have 1 more week to decide and I do not have all the facts for me to make a complete informed decision re. costs etc.

    So do i trust the govt., not trust them, Hope for the best or what?

    We will make the decision and live by it but I hope this little explanation might help a few here think, and realize by announcing a carbon tax but with no details is why at the moment I oppose it.

    This as well as selling/buying a new house and the associated hassles that involves is my reasoning for why I am some times cranky and now having Valium and scotch to sleep. which by the wat is working but I am not sure that it altogether good for me:)

  14. Joe6Pack…. what on earth are you on about? Are you building a coal fired station, or starting a new mine? What possible problems will arise for your tiny project?

    Good grief some pbers here are such complete Drama Queens

  15. George 5094

    Well, I think it is important that the progressive side of politics – especially here – does not become an echo chamber for our hopes and dreams and self-delusion.

    The conservatives – metaphorically speaking – would eat their own children to (a) get into power and (b) stay there. However, that does not mean to say they are stupid or they occasionally do get things right.

    So, when our conservative friends who come here, come up with vapid comments we should hammer them. On the other hand, when they have a point, we should acknowledge same.

    An earlier conservative blogger came up with vapid rubbish!

  16. [The conservatives – metaphorically speaking – would eat their own children to (a) get into power and (b) stay there. However, that does not mean to say they are stupid or they occasionally do get things right.]

    On I don’t think they’re stupid at all… far far from it

  17. Doyley

    The article made that point.

    [“There are other options,” he said.

    “Community detention is an option that the government has been able to access before.”]

  18. [george

    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 7:09 pm | Permalink

    The conservatives – metaphorically speaking – would eat their own children to (a) get into power and (b) stay there. However, that does not mean to say they are stupid or they occasionally do get things right.

    On I don’t think they’re stupid at all… far far from it
    ]

    Especially with their response to the Malaysia Solution which has managed to con so called “Progressives” to believe that Nauru is more humane.

    Now that is a political masterstroke.

  19. j6p

    Peace, brother.

    I have had direct experience of both the public and the private sector and the risks inherent in each. Not easy.

    The reason that the Government has not announced the details of the financial arrangments is because the Government cannot dictate these – it has to reach compromise agreements with Independents and the Greens. In the process the Government is conducting extensive discussions with industry sectors.

    If you are a transport company then I assume that the single biggest risk would be a change to the petrol tax. The other risk is that your partners or signatories might be particularly affected by a change in electricity prices. Since these are very likely to go up regardless of what the Gillard Government does (pretty well the entire power transmission system in Australia needs replacing and some of the older power stations will be replaced by gas-fired power stations) I assume that you would have built in some sort of price increase in your forward planning. This might be addressed by including a sliding scale in the cost structure of the contract to reflect changes in power bills.

    Perhaps you could deal with your major risk by negotiating a clause to the contract that includes floating adjustment rates to reflect any changes to the petrol tax and or electricity costs as a consequence of the Government’s climate change schemes?

    Anyway, best wishes with the contract.

  20. [george
    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 7:05 pm | Permalink

    Joe6Pack…. what on earth are you on about? Are you building a coal fired station, or starting a new mine? What possible problems will arise for your tiny project?

    Good grief some pbers here are such complete Drama Queens]

    Give me $1,750,000 to risk and see how you feel before you you call me a queen

  21. imacca @ 4727

    [Yup. coalition will have to ramp up the hysteria now about just about anything else they can find and distract distract distract.

    Not sure what they can do on Carbon now? They have just about zero credibility on this issue and seem to be going into last ditch defense mode of their already stated positions. wonder how long that will last?

    Given the whole reason that Abbott was appointed LOTO was to oppose action on carbon pollution, whats his purpose now??]

    Quite so. The Productivity Commission Report, focussing as it does on the economic benefits to Australia to be derived from an early intervention in addressing and mitigating the worst effects of AGW, moves past the ‘disputed’ science and effectively bypasses that entire hysterical circus of lies and fear mongering, taking as a given that action will be undertaken and focussing on the best means to deliver this.

    Half of Abbott’s ammunition has therefore been rendered into duds, as he now has no choice but to address the question of which economic mechanism is best able to deal with AGW, not the subliminal question of ‘whether’ which underlies what we know is a never to be implemented ‘direct action’ plan.

    Having said all of that in defence of logic and commonsense, we can be sure that Abbott will do the opposite, as he has committed the Coalition to a course of total negativity on so many issues that the downward momentum cannot now be reversed without the complete collapse of his entire reason for being LOTO and the end of his career in politics.

    As I commented in an earlier post, it is ‘crash through, or crash’ for Abbott now on this and the many other fear and hatred issues on which he has nailed his colours to the mast.

    “Forward, the Light Brigade!”
    Was there a man dismay’d?
    Not tho’ the soldier knew
    Someone had blunder’d:
    Theirs not to make reply,
    Theirs not to reason why,
    Theirs but to do and die:
    Into the valley of Death
    Rode the six hundred.

  22. Hi Boerwar, had an ADO today and have had a proper bludge catching up with Pollbludger. We’ve got accreditation happening this year and feel some affinity with the pine bark beetles in relation to having to assemble, disassemble and reassemble vast quantities of information across an enormous organisation. I see that the Middle East is going tremendously well and some locals have decided similar tactics could be usefully used against climate scientists. Sophie Mirabella, if she happened to inhale a sausage roll incorrectly,would surely be up for a Darwin Award.

  23. Diogenes @5123,

    Agreed.

    However, I cannot see how that has any significance.

    Labor is placing children in community care. Approx. another 125 will be removed from detention in the next week or so and placement is being followed up for the rest.

    Again, I ask how should the children be placed ? With due care, as the government and welfare groups are doing now or just throw them out to anyone ?

  24. 1.7Million? As I said, drama queen. What’s your profit on that, 10%, 20%? so a small percentage either way from what will have probably a negligible effect on your service will mean nothing. Again, drama queen.

  25. Doyley

    They should put more resources into speeding up the process. 1000 kids in detention is pretty bad esp when Labor made a big deal of the kids in detention under Howie.

  26. [Diogenes

    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

    Doyley

    They should put more resources into speeding up the process. 1000 kids in detention is pretty bad esp when Labor made a big deal of the kids in detention under Howie.
    ]

    And then cop flak when a child is then discovered to be placed with a ssex offender, and or suffers some sort of harm ?

  27. Joe6,

    Serious question.

    Assume no Carbon pricing on the agenda.

    Before making a business decision such as the one you now must make what cost analysis would you normally take and how far into the future would you project any such analysis ?

    Would you factor in any cost/ revenue increases over say a forward estimate of one – two years ?

    Fuel increases, wage increases, other costs etc on one side and revenue increases on the other. If you do how would you quantify such projections without actual dollar figures available now?

    Really interested in how you do your projections as I would assume such analysis would be based on “anticipated” costs and returns.

  28. Frank

    [And then cop flak when a child is then discovered to be placed with a ssex offender, and or suffers some sort of harm ?]

    Most are with their family so the whole family goes there. And is there are more resources, they can make the process go faster with the same checks and balances.

  29. Diogenes @5131,

    Once again , fair enough.

    But how do you know the problem does not lie with the fact safe and acceptable homes and care are difficult to access rather than lack of effort?

    I have no idea what the situation is but I would think welfare groups such as red cross are doing everything they can in partnership with the government.

  30. [5134

    Diogenes

    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 7:28 pm | Permalink

    Frank

    And then cop flak when a child is then discovered to be placed with a ssex offender, and or suffers some sort of harm ?

    Most are with their family so the whole family goes there. And is there are more resources, they can make the process go faster with the same checks and balances.
    ]

    Dio,

    Most cases of Child Abuse occour where the pperson is abused by a Family Member, or is known to the person – there are such checks and Balances for a reason.

    And you want them to be thrown out so you can feel good.

    Sorry.

    I prefer to err on the side of caution.

  31. Doyley

    [I think you will find a significant number are on their own.]

    I don’t have the numbers but it’s about 10% who aren’t with any family.

  32. OzPol Tragic @ 4975

    [We saw a change between 7.30?s Uhlmann’s early, aggressive, talk-over-the-top attempts to monster senior ALP figures; then a quite sudden tempering to something approaching good manners – so stark people noted on a number of blogs & comment columns that he must have been hauled over the coals.

    Last night, we saw the opposite when the normally courteous tried to monster Greg Combet – silly choice! Read the transcript, then watch the video, on the same page! http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2011/s3240275.htm The printed transcript does little to convey the video’s feeling, tone and possibly intention

    No way bias can be judged by “balancing” statistics, like counting the number of complaints!]

    Spot on! The hitherto bellicose Uhlmann has obviously been given the tap on the shoulder by the ABC bean counters toting up the less than impressive ratings he has garnered since he plucked up the orb and sceptre from Communist Kerry’s palsied grasp. This kinder, gentler incarnation of Uhlmann will have no effect on the plummeting ratings for 7.30, as the problems there go a lot deeper than the inept host.

    This partisan and unprofessional style is now an ABC news and current affairs-wide affliction, a pandemic that can only be addressed by the removal of the malignancy responsible for the infection – the ‘Typhoid Mary’ of public broadcasting, Mark Scott.

    My Dad says that “a fish stinks from the head”, so in my view it’s high time for the failed experiment into the sordid race for tabloid ratings to be terminated and for Mr Scott’s cranium to be delivered to Julia Gillard’s office on a platter.

  33. The Big Ship 5083:

    I enjoyed reading your recollections of Jones during your formative years.

    Without meaning to make an untoward reference to his sexuality, I do think the words “a bit suss” are appropriate in the circumstances.

    I guess in his day coming out would have been extremely difficult; and even now, those whom regard him as a demigod would almost certainly puke at the thought that their man may not be what he publically portrays. These mitigating factors notwithstanding, this for me is the reason why I have little respect for him. In short, I think he’s a fraud in the moral sense.

    I will, say, however, that I once wrote to him complaining of his dribble and he responded with a very polite letter, obviously penned by him.

    It may be uncharitable but he’s now seventy and has suffered headaches. Maybe it won’t be too long before he hangs up his microphone, or even worse. And ‘Scabbie’ will also be due for another bout of retirement if his ratings don’t lift. Then the airways will be free of these two self-important, pompous windbags.

  34. my say @ 5090:

    Yes I have observed the Rudd brigade coming out in force especially when there’s bad polling news.

    One particular poster whom I shan’t name does appear to be a genuine Labor supporter, whose family is woven in the Labor tradition. In my view I think she – like many – were shocked at the suddenness of Rudd’s demise.

    As for the rest of them they need to get over it if, as some of them say, they are true to the Labor tradition.

    We have a new leader – well not new, she’s been leader 12 months now – and she should be supported by all those who claim allegiance to the grand Labor cause.

  35. [Joe6pack
    Posted Friday, June 10, 2011 at 6:23 pm | Permalink

    I can remember not that long ago that to say anything against senator Faulkner would be sacrilege. Now when he is speaking not in tune with the factions he is getting dissed.
    Seems he must be on the money.]

    Not so, Joe. One or two have questioned the timing and whether it was the right forum but I haven’t seen any evidence of him getting dissed. Quite the reverse. He makes excellent points which most ALP supporters can relate to.

    Where there has been a storm had been the way various supporters have reacted. The Rudd loyalists have seen it as a vindication of their views. To the extent that it condemns the Arbib-Sitar-NSW Right management it is. But that is barely half of what Faulkner complains about.

    Faulkner has rightly avoided naming individuals -so I suppose you can read it how you like. It could just as easily be read as a condemnation of the Rudd style. The obsessions with polls and TV news grabs and centralising and controlling the message were very much part of the Rudd style. Again I doubt whether Faulkner is blaming Rudd’s style any more than he is vindicating it.

    Trusting that your front-benchers know enough to get it right when talking to reporters or the public is one of the key things I took out of the address. I have to say that a lot more of that has occurred in the last 6 months than previously. Combet, Smith, Roxon and Bowen have all done pretty well since being released a bit to be themselves. Juniors we’d hardly heard of such as Butler and Clare are impressing.

    On that evidence Gillard is surely doing something right.

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