Category: Irish politics

German election minus eight days

Polls remain bleak for the left shortly before the February 23 election. Also covered: the Canadian Liberal leadership contest, federal election polls and provincial elections.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

I covered the February 23 German federal election in late December and late January. To qualify for a proportional allocation of the 630 seats, parties must either win at least 5% of the national “party” vote, or win at least three single-member electorates, which are elected by first past the post,

Polls give the conservative CDU/CSU about 30%, the far-right AfD 20%, the centre-left SPD 15%, the Greens 13%, the Left 6%, the economically left but socially conservative BSW 4.5% and the pro-business FDP 4%. In the last few weeks, there has been some movement to the Left and against BSW, so the Left is likely to clear the 5% threshold, while BSW may fall short.

The SPD, Greens and FDP had formed a coalition government after the September 2021 election, but this coalition broke down in early November, leading to this election being held seven months early. The CDU/CSU has said it won’t form a government with the AfD, but they may need both the SPD and Greens to form a government without the AfD.

Canadian Liberal leadership and federal polls

A new leader of the governing centre-left Liberals to replace Justin Trudeau will be elected on March 9. Preferential voting is used, with each of Canada’s electorates having 100 points and those points assigned in proportion to votes in that electorate. The overwhelming favourite to be next Liberal leader and PM is former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney. Carney has surged from 27% among Liberal supporters in the first Léger poll on January 13 to 57% on January 25 and 68% on February 10.

All Canadian general elections use FPTP. The federal election is due by October, though it could be held earlier if the Liberals are defeated after parliament resumes on March 23. The CBC Poll Tracker was last updated Monday, and it has the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 42.4-25.5 with 16.4% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP), 8.1% for the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) (33.3% in Quebec), 4.1% for the Greens and 2.8% for the far-right People’s.

On these vote shares, the Conservatives are expected to win 205 of the 343 seats, the Liberals 79, the BQ 39 and NDP 18, with the Conservatives well above the 172 needed for a majority. In the last month, the Liberals’ vote share has increased from a low of 20.1% and the Conservatives have dropped from a high of 44.8%.

Conservative landslide likely at Ontario election

Ontario is Canada’s most populous province. Conservative Premier Doug Ford called an election for February 27, about 15 months early. The Writ’s current Ontario forecast is for the Conservatives to win 97 of the 124 seats on 44.6% of votes, the Liberals 14 seats on 28.3%, the NDP ten seats on 17.9% and the Greens two seats on 6.2%. This would be the Conservatives’ third successive term.

At the November 26 Nova Scotia election, the incumbent Conservatives were easily re-elected with 43 of the 55 seats (up 12 since 2021). The NDP won nine seats (up three) and the Liberals two (down 15). Vote shares were 52.5% Conservatives (up 14.1%), 22.2% NDP (up 1.2%) and 22.7% Liberals (down 14.0%).

US, UK and Ireland

In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, Donald Trump’s net approval in US national polls is currently +3.4, with 49.0% approving and 45.7% disapproving. His net approval has dropped from a peak of +8.2 at the start of his term.

The far-right Reform has surged into a tie for the lead with Labour in UK national polls with the Conservatives further behind. The Find Out Now poll, which has a pro-Reform lean, has Reform six points ahead of Labour in its latest poll. Keir Starmer’s net favourability is -33 or worse in most recent polls.

At the November 29 Irish election, the two main conservative parties (Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael) won a combined 86 of the 174 seats, two short of a majority. On January 15, a coalition government was agreed between these two parties and nine of the 16 independents. Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin was elected Taoiseach (PM) after winning a parliamentary vote on January 23.

South Korean and French government crises

South Korea’s conservative president not impeached after declaring martial law, while France’s PM loses no-confidence motion. Also: Romania’s presidential election annulled

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

On Tuesday night, South Korean conservative president Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law, a move that got international media coverage.  Hours later, Yoon was forced to withdraw this declaration.

A two-thirds majority of parliament’s 300 seats was needed to impeach Yoon.  The opposition centre-left Democrats and allies hold a 192-108 majority, so they needed eight MPs from Yoon’s People Power Party (PPP) to support impeachment.  But PPP MPs boycotted Saturday’s vote, and it was declared invalid with only 195 MPs voting, short of the 200 needed to impeach.  Impeachment required 200 votes, with abstentions effectively No votes.

If Yoon had been impeached, he would have been suspended and replaced by the PM, Han Duck-soo, a Yoon appointee.  If six of the nine judges of South Korea’s highest court agreed with the impeachment or Yoon resigned, new presidential elections would be required within 60 days.

Yoon won the March 2022 presidential election by a 48.6-47.8 margin over the Democratic candidate, and his five-year term ends in 2027.  Even before the current crisis, Yoon was very unpopular with over 70% disapproving of his performance.  At April 2024 parliamentary elections, the PPP was thumped.  A poll had 73.6% of South Koreans favouring impeachment.

French PM ousted after losing no-confidence vote

French President Emmanuel Macron called parliamentary elections for early July, three years before they were due.  The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) won 180 of the 677 seats, Macron’s centrist Ensemble 159, the far-right National Rally (RN) and allies 142 and the conservative Republicans 39.  After the 2022 elections, Ensemble was easily the largest party with 245 seats, though well short of the 289 needed for a majority.

In September Macron appointed the conservative Michel Barnier PM.  With the NFP hostile to him, Barnier depended on RN not supporting a no-confidence motion.  Barnier used a French parliamentary procedure to force through an unpopular budget measure without a vote last Monday, so the only way to block this measure was by a no-confidence motion.  The RN supported the NFP’s no-confidence motion.  On Wednesday Barnier’s government was defeated by 331 votes to 244 after only three months.  It was the first successful no-confidence motion since 1962.

Macron cannot call new parliamentary elections until July 2025.  A centrist or conservative PM would be likely to suffer Barnier’s fate.  Whoever Macron appoints as his new PM will need to be someone who can keep the support of either the NFP or RN.  Either of these blocs combined with Ensemble would be enough for a governing majority.

Romanian court annuls presidential election

On November 24, a far-right and pro-Russia independent topped the first round of the Romanian presidential election with 22.9%, followed by a pro-EU candidate on 19.18%, a centre-left candidate on 19.15% and another right-wing candidate on 13.9%.  The runoff was to be held today, but on Friday a Romanian court annulled the election owing to Russian influence, so the first round will need to be rerun.

Romanian parliamentary elections occurred on December 1.  The 331 lower house MPs and 136 senators were elected by proportional representation in 43 multi-member electorates based on Romania’s counties with a 5% national threshold.  After the fall of the previous government in September 2021, the centre-left PSD and conservative PNL had formed a grand coalition.  At this election, the PSD and PNL lost their combined majority, with big gains for three right-wing to far-right parties.  The PSD and PNL will need the cnetre to centre-right USR to form a majority.

Irish election results wrap

At the November 29 Irish election, there were 174 seats in 43 multi-member electorates that used the Hare-Clark system with three to five members per electorate.  There were 14 more total seats than at the March 2020 election.

The conservative Fianna Fáil won 48 seats (up ten from 2020), the left-wing Sinn Féin 39 (up two), the conservative Fine Gael 38 (up three), the Social Democrats 11 (up five), Labour 11 (up five), the right-wing Independent Ireland four (new) and independents 16 (down three).  The Greens were reduced to just one seat (down 11) after being part of the previous FF/FG government.  FF and FG combined have 86 seats, only two short of a majority.

Irish election vote counting live

Updates on the Irish vote counting from tonight. Also covered: near-final US election results, UK news and polls and other recent European elections.

9:41am Tuesday With all 174 seats declared, it’s 48 FF, 39 SF, 38 FG, 11 Labour, 11 Social Democrats, four Independent Ireland, three People Before Profit, two Aontu, one Green, 16 independents and one other. Adding FF and FG gives 86 seats for the two main conservative parties, only two short of a majority. They’ll retain their governing coalition with support from either Independent Ireland or some of the independents.

9:16am Monday With 130 of 174 seats declared it’s 34 FF, 30 SF, 29 FG, nine Social Democrats, eight Labour, three Independent Ireland (right-wing), three People before Profit, two Aontu (conservative, anti-abortion), one Green and 11 independents. Final vote shares were 21.9% FF, 20.8% FG, 19.0% SF, under 5% for various other parties and 13.2% for independents.

10:50pm There’s still one electorate that hasn’t yet reported its first preference count. So far 46 of the 174 seats have been declared, with FF and FG both doing better than SF.

10:40am It’s now 11:40pm Saturday in Ireland, and nearly 15 hours after counting started there are still four of 43 electorates that haven’t yet completed their first preference counts. I don’t think pre-poll or postal votes were allowed, so this is slow progress.

9:53am With 36 of 43 electorates having completed their first preference count, SF is down 6.0% from 2020 and the Greens down 4.5%. The biggest gainer is the right-wing Independent Ireland (up 3.6%, new), with the Social Democrats up 2.4% and the conservative Aontu up 2.1%. The two main conservative parties, FF and FG, are roughly flat compared with 2020.

6:49am Sunday With 20 of 43 electorates having completed their first preference counts, SF is down 6.9% from 2020 on a matched electorate basis and the Greens are down 4.9%. The gains are going to independents (up 4.0%) and other small parties, with FF and FG both down 1%. Completed electorates so far are mainly in Dublin, so overall vote shares still look close between the top three parties. But a 6.9% swing against SF from 2020 would give them only 17.6%.

11:02pm With all votes counted in Dublin Central, SF leader Mary Lou McDonald has 20%, which is down 16% from what she got in this seat in 2020. If this is repeated in other seats, SF will do much worse than polls indicate. There won’t be official results posted until all first preference counting has been completed in an electorate.

9:46pm Irish broadcaster RTE has a live blog with reports of counts of ballot boxes that have been opened so far. However, I can’t see any information about the overall totals, only information on particular electorates presented without any swing info.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The Irish election was held on Friday, but vote counting doesn’t start until 9am Saturday in Ireland (8pm AEDT). Ireland uses the Hare-Clark proportional system that is used in Australia for Tasmanian and ACT elections. At this election there will be 174 members elected in 43 multi-member electorates, with three to five members per electorate. It will take at least a few days to get the final number of MPs for each party.

Ireland has been governed for most of its history by one of two rival conservative parties: Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. After the 2020 election, these two parties formed a coalition government for the first time in Ireland’s history, with the Greens also included. The left-wing Sinn Féin had won the most votes in 2020 with 24.5%, the first time in almost a century that neither FG nor FF had won the most votes.

In Irish polls, SF support had surged to a peak of about 35% in May 2022, but since November 2023, SF support has slumped back to about 18%, behind both FF and FG. Pre-election polls suggest SF support has recovered slightly, and there’s a three-way tie between the leading parties, but the two conservative parties are likely to form a coalition government.

US election near-final results

With nearly all votes counted for the November 5 US election, Donald Trump won the presidency by 312 electoral votes to 226 for Kamala Harris. Trump swept the seven key states of Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Michigan. He won the popular vote by 49.8-48.3 (77.15 million votes to 74.75 million). In 2020 Joe Biden had defeated Trump by 306 electoral votes to 232 on a popular vote margin of 51.3-46.8 (81.3 million votes to 74.2 million).

All 435 House of Representatives seats are up for election every two years. Republicans won the House by a narrow 220-215 margin, a two-seat gain for Democrats since the 2022 midterms.

Each of the 50 states has two senators, with one-third up for election every two years. Before this election, Democrats and allied independents held a 51-49 Senate majority, but they were defending 23 of the 33 seats up, including three in states Trump won easily. Republicans gained these three seats and also Pennsylvania, to take a 53-47 Senate majority. But Democrats defended their seats in four of the five presidential key states that also held Senate elections.

UK news and polls

On November 2, Kemi Badenoch was elected Conservative leader, defeating Robert Jenrick in a Conservative members’ vote by 56.5-43.5. Both candidates had qualified by not getting eliminated in the rounds of Conservative MPs’ votes.

Labour’s lead has dropped quickly, and they’re in a rough tie with the Conservatives, with two recent polls giving the Conservatives a lead. Reform has about 18%, the Liberal Democrats 12% and the Greens 8%. In other news, there’s a push by Labour MPs to change the electoral system from first past the post to proportional representation.

Lithuania, Moldova, Bulgaria and Romania

Of the 141 Lithuanian seats, 71 are elected in single-member electorates using a two-round system and the remaining 70 by national PR. At October 13 and 27 elections, the centre-left LSDP won 52 seats (up 39 since 2020), the conservative TS-LKD 28 (down 22), the populist PPNA 20 (new), the green DSVL 14 (new) and a green-conservative party eight (down 24). The LSDP formed a governing coalition with the PPNA and DSVL.

At the November 3 Moldovan presidential runoff, the pro-western incumbent defeated the pro-Russian candidate by a 55.4-44.6 margin.

Owing to failure to form a lasting government, there have been six elections in Bulgaria since 2021, with the latest on October 27. PR in multi-member electorates was used to allocate the 240 seats with a 4% national threshold. It appears unlikely that a government will be formed after this election.

In the first round of the Romanian presidential election on November 24, a far-right and pro-Russsia independent topped the poll with 22.9%, followed by a pro-EU candidate on 19.18%, a centre-left candidate on 19.15% and another right-wing candidate on 13.9%. A recount is being held to determine who finishes second and proceeds to the December 8 runoff.

US election late counting

Democrats are still a slight chance to gain control of the House despite a popular vote deficit. Also covered: upcoming Irish and German elections.

12:13pm Sunday The Dem has taken the lead in California’s 45th by just 0.01%. But with late counting favouring the Dem heavily, he should increase his lead. I think this will be my last post on this thread.

1:47pm Saturday Small vote numbers today further reduced the Rep’s lead in California’s 45th to just 0.02%, while the Rep’s lead slightly increased to 1.1% in the 13th, but Dem-favouring counties in that district are undercounted. Overall, Reps lead in called races by 218-212. In the remaining five, Dems should win Ohio’s ninth and California’s 45th, the Reps should win Iowa’s first and Alaska’s only, with California’s 13th still undecided.

2:04pm Friday November 15 Today’s counting in California’s 13th broke heavily to the Dem, with the Rep lead reduced from 2.4% to 1.0% with 84% in. In the 45th, few votes were counted today, with the Rep holding a 0.08% lead with 93% in. If Reps lose both these seats, their House margin would be 220-215.

4:53pm The Reps have hit the 218 called seats needed for a House majority. But Trump wants three House Reps to serve in his administration, and Rep Matt Gaetz has already resigned, so there’ll need to be three by-elections in Rep-held seats. In most states, by-elections require a primary at which major party candidates are selected before the by-election itself, so it takes months to elect a new member.

12:36pm Thursday Reps lead in called House seats by 217-208. But one Rep seat lead in California is close to flipping to a Dem lead, with the Rep lead falling from 4% to 0.12% and 7% still remaining to be counted. Reps are likely to win all other seats they lead in, for a 221-214 majority.

2:56pm Wednesday The Reps lead in called House races by 216-207, with 218 needed for a majority. In Californian counting today, the 41st moved to the Dems, with Reps now only ahead by 0.8% after they led by 4% after election night. But other seats have the Reps holding steady. The Reps are virtually certain to win a House majority.

4:06pm Tuesday CNN has called the Arizona Senate contest for the Dem, giving the Reps a 52-47 lead. The Reps are very likely to win the last undecided Senate seat in Pennsylvania, where they have a 0.5% lead with 98% in.

In the House, Reps have a 214-205 lead in called races and an overall 222-213 lead. However, two Californian seats with narrow Rep leads moved to Dems in counting today. If Dems win both these seats, Reps would win the House by just a 220-215 margin.

2:26pm Monday The Dem will win the Arizona Senate contest, where he leads by 50.0-47.8 with 91% in. There hasn’t been much counting for the House today as it’s Sunday US time. Reps lead in called seats by 214-203, and they maintain a 222-213 overall lead.

In my Conversation article today on Newspoll, I said that Kamala Harris should have emphasised health care more, particularly Trump’s nearly successful attempt to repeal Obamacare in his first term.

3:43pm Sunday CNN has called Arizona for Trump, so he officially wins the Electoral College by 312 to 226. In the Arizona Senate, the Dem has increased his lead to 49.7-48.2 with 86% in. In the House, Reps lead in called races by 213-202. Today, Dems gained a lead in a Calif seat that Reps had previously led in, so Reps now lead in 222 seats to 213 for Dems. There are three more seats in Calif with current Rep leads by about 3%, which could be won by Dems.

4:42pm Saturday: CNN has called the Nevada Senate contest for the Democrat. In Arizona, the Dem leads by 49.5-48.4 with 82% in. In the House, Reps lead in called seats by 212-200. While a Californian seat has flipped to a Dem lead since yesterday, an Arizonan seat has flipped to a Rep lead. Reps still lead the House by 223-212.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

This post will be used to follow late counting in the US election.  Donald Trump will win the last uncalled state in Arizona, and win 312 electoral votes to 226 for Kamala Harris.  Trump leads the national popular vote by 50.7-47.7, with many more votes outstanding in Democratic strongholds like California.  Before The New York Times Needle was turned off, its forecast was for Trump to win the popular vote by 1.5%.

You can read my latest on the big swings to Trump among Hispanics and young men at The Conversation.  The Cook Political Report’s popular vote tracker shows the swings since 2020 by each state.  Racially diverse states had the biggest swings to Trump.

In the Senate, Republicans have a 52-45 lead over Democrats (including allied independents) after gaining Ohio, Montana and West Virginia.  Democrats have won or are leading in four of the five presidential swing states that held Senate elections (Pennsylvania the exception).  If Republicans win the Senate by 53-47, Democrats could hope to recover it in 2026, when Republicans will be defending 21 of the 34 seats up.

Of the remaining contests, Republicans hold a 0.5% lead in Pennsylvania with 98% in, and Democrats hold a 1.3% lead in Nevada with 96% in.  Arizona is the most interesting with Democrats holding a 1.7% lead with 74% in.

In the House of Representatives, Republicans lead Democrats in called races by 211 seats to 199.  If Republicans win all the seats the currently lead in, they will win the House by 223-212.  However, there are five seats Republicans lead by four points or less in California, where there is much late counting.  So far California’s late counting has been good for Democrats.

If Democrats win the House or even get close, it would be despite a popular vote deficit in the Cook Political Report tracker of 51.6-46.9.  While that gap will close on late counting, Republicans should still win by about 3%.

Irish election: November 29

Ireland uses the Hare-Clark proportional system that is used in Australia for Tasmanian and ACT elections.  At this election there will be 174 members elected in 43 multi-member electorates.  This election was called before it was due in March 2025.

Ireland has been governed for most of its history by one of two rival conservative parties: Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.  After the 2020 election, these two parties formed a coalition government for the first time in Ireland’s history, with the Greens also included.  The left-wing Sinn Féin had won the most votes in 2020 with 24.5%, the first time in almost a century that neither FG nor FF had won the most votes.

In Irish polls, SF support had surged to a peak of about 35% in May 2022, but since November 3023, SF support has slumped back to about 18%, behind both FF and FG.  This election is likely to return the two conservative parties to a coalition government.

Left-wing parties to be routed at likely March German election

After the last federal German election in September 2021, a governing coalition was formed by the centre-left Social Democrats, the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats.  However, this government has now collapsed, and it’s likely the next German election will be held in March 2025, rather than September.

German polls have been terrible for the governing parties for a long time, and the conservative Christian Democrats are virtually certain to win the most seats.  But they are unlikely to be able to form a coalition easily, given their opposition to dealing with the far-right Alternative for Germany.

UK local elections minus three weeks

The Conservatives are set to suffer large losses at UK local elections. Also covered: other recent and upcoming elections.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

UK local government elections will be held on May 2. Owing to COVID, there were no elections in 2020, so the large majority of the seats up were last contested in 2021. At the 2021 local elections, the Conservatives under Boris Johnson had a big win. With national polls now showing a huge Labour lead, the Conservatives are virtually certain to suffer large losses.

Local elections are contested on a four-year cycle, with different wards up every year. Some years are more Conservative-leaning and others Labour-leaning. The BBC’s Projected National Share (PNS) attempts to correct for bias in the particular year. In 2021, the Conservatives won the PNS by 36-29 over Labour with 17% for the Liberal Democrats. In 2023, Labour won by 35-26 with 20% Lib Dems.

The biggest prize at these elections is the London mayoralty. Previously, mayors were elected by preferential voting, but the Conservative government regressed to first-past-the-post. Labour incumbent Sadiq Khan, who is running for a third term, has a large lead over Conservative Susan Hall. These local elections will be the last before the general election, which is likely to be held in late 2024, though it could be delayed until January 2025.

There will also be a parliamentary by-election on May 2 in Conservative-held Blackpool South. Former Conservative MP Scott Benton resigned on March 25, while a six-week petition to recall him after he was suspended from parliament for 35 days was ongoing. The recall petition was to close on April 22, with at least 10% of registered voters needed. The Conservatives gained Blackpool South from Labour at the 2019 election, winning by a 49.6-38.3 margin with 6.1% for the Brexit Party.

Other upcoming elections

The US general election will be held on November 5. I covered the upcoming US and UK elections for The Conversation on March 19. Since this article, Joe Biden’s net approval in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate has improved from -16.8 to -15.4, while Donald Trump’s net favourability has slipped from -9.7 to -10.2. National general election polls are close to even between Trump and Biden, an improvement for Biden. However, Trump is probably advantaged by the Electoral College system.

The Indian election takes place in seven stages, from April 19 to June 1. No interim results will be released, with vote counting set for June 4. The 543 MPs are elected by FPTP. The right-wing alliance of PM Narendra Modi, who is running for a third successive term, has a high-single to double-digit lead in polls.

The European parliament election will be held from June 6-9, with vote counting starting once all countries have finished voting. The 720 seats are elected using proportional representation in each EU country. Far-right parties are expected to make gains.

Recent elections

The 230 Portuguese MPs are elected by PR in multi-member electorates. At the March 10 election, which was held early owing to scandals in the governing Socialists, the conservative AD won 80 seats (up three since the last election in 2022), the centre-left Socialists 78 seats (down 42) and the far-right Chega 50 seats (up 38). The AD has formed a minority government.

The final results for the February 14 Indonesian election have been released. In the presidential election, Prabowa Subianto, who represented an alliance of right-wing and Islamist parties, won 58.6% of the vote, far ahead of his nearest opponent who had 25.0%. By winning a majority, Prabowa avoided a runoff.

In legislative elections, the 580 seats were elected by PR in multi-member electorates with a 4% national threshold. While the centre-left Democratic Party of Struggle won the most seats, it lost 18 seats to fall to 110, while right-wing and Islamist parties all made gains. There’s a clear majority for right-wing and Islamist parties.

Two Irish referendums were held on March 8, and both were heavily defeated. The first referendum proposed to expand the definition of family to include durable relationships outside marriage, and it lost by 67.7-32.3. The second referendum proposed to replace references to women’s “life within the home” with gender-neutral language on supporting care within the family; this lost by 73.9-26.1.  Perhaps as a result of these defeats, Leo Varadkar announced on March 20 that he would resign as Taoiseach (PM).

Is Trump’s ratings improvement sustainable?

Trump’s ratings have improved to near-record highs, but his improvement is far less than other leaders. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, Donald Trump’s current ratings with all polls are 45.8% approve, 49.7% disapprove (net -3.9%). With polls of registered or likely voters, Trump’s ratings are 46.3% approve, 50.3% disapprove (net -4.0%). Trump’s ratings have improved 5-6 points in the last two weeks, and are the highest they have been since early in his term.

Despite the rise in Trump’s approval, the RealClearPolitics average of national polls gave virtually certain Democratic nominee Joe Biden a 6.1% lead over Trump, down only a little from 8.5% last fortnight.

A recent Fox News national poll gave Trump a 51-48 disapproval rating. However, 53% thought a quicker response from the federal government could have slowed the spread of coronavirus, while 34% said it was so contagious nothing could stop it spreading. Despite the higher rating for Trump, the same poll gave Biden a 49-40 lead.

Major crises tend to produce a “rally round the flag” effect for incumbents. Trump’s gains so far are dwarfed by George W. Bush’s gains in approval of over 30 points after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

Other current leaders and governing parties have had far bigger bounces in their ratings than Trump. In Britain, two recent polls gave the Conservatives 54%, up from the mid to high 40s. In Germany, the conservative Union parties are currently in the mid-30s, up from the mid-20s before the crisis. The latest French poll gave President Emmanuel Macron a -8 net approval, up 26 points.

Even in the US, Trump’s bounce is far less than the bounce for New York’s Democratic governor Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo’s net favourable rating improved from -6 to +48 in a New York Siena College poll. New York has the most US coronavirus cases so far.

An example of a major crisis that produced an initial rally round the flag effect, but nothing else, is the December 2010 to January 2011 Queensland floods, during which over three-quarters of the state was affected.

I obtained old Newspoll data on request from Kevin Bonham. In October to December 2010, the Labor state government was trailing the opposition LNP by a landslide 59-41 margin. In January to March 2011, Labor surged ahead by 52-48, but then fell immediately back to a 60-40 deficit in April to June 2011. Labor never recovered, and was reduced to just seven of 89 seats at the March 2012 state election.

The Queensland polling indicates that, if the coronavirus crisis is resolved relatively quickly, people will be more focussed on other factors by the November election. In that case, how much damage the economy takes and whether it is clearly recovering are likely to be key factors in the election.

The more likely scenario is that coronavirus will damage the US both economically and in health terms for a long time. The US already has far more cases than any other country. I do not believe Trump’s ratings gains will be sustained if the US falls into a massive health and economic crisis.

The crisis has already had an economic impact: in the week ending March 21, almost 3.3 million new jobless claims were submitted, far exceeding the previous record of 695,000. Weekly jobless claims are published every Thursday, and this Friday we get the March US jobs report.

Israel and Ireland election updates

At the March 2 Israeli election, Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc won 58 of the 120 Knesset seats, while more left-wing parties won 55 seats. Yisrael Beiteinu, which had failed to work with either side at the previous two elections, won the remaining seven seats. Owing to the coronavirus crisis, Blue & White leader Benny Gantz has opted to attempt to form a national unity government with Netanyahu.

At the February 8 Irish election, the two traditional conservative parties – Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael – combined won 73 of the 160 seats, eight short of a majority, with the far-left Sinn Féin winning 37 seats. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are attempting to form a coalition government, which would require either another party or independents.

Israeli election minus four days, Germany and Ireland

Monday’s third Israeli election in a year will probably result in another stalemate. Also covered: the recent German political crisis and Sinn Féin surges in an Irish poll. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

There are global electoral events happening outside the US. On Monday, the day before the US Super Tuesday primaries, Israel will hold its third election in a year, after no government could be formed following April and September 2019 elections. This was due to Yisrael Beiteinu leaving right-wing PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition. While Yisrael Beiteinu will not govern with the religious right parties (Shas and the UTJ), neither will they form a government with the Arab parties (the Joint List).

The 120 members of Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, are elected by national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold. For most of this election campaign, polls gave the left-leaning Blue & White (B&W) a lead over Netanyahu’s Likud, but three of the last four polls have given Likud a narrow lead.

In Israel, overall alliances are more important than major party support. Even with the recent increase for Likud, the right bloc has 56-57 seats, short of the 61 needed for a majority. The left bloc (B&W, Labor and the Joint List) has 55-57 seats. The most likely outcome is therefore that Yisreal Beiteinu again holds the balance of power, but cannot work with either side.

Many people on the Israeli left thought this election would be different after Netanyahu’s indictment in November on fraud and bribery charges. But there have been many scandals involving Donald Trump and Boris Johnson that have had no impact on their popularity. It appears that the economy and other factors are more important to most voters than political scandals.

Israeli polls close at 7am Tuesday AEDT.

German political crisis in Thuringia

On my personal website, I covered the recent German political crisis in Thuringia, in which the far-right AfD and conservative CDU supported a small pro-business party’s leader to become state president. It is the first time that any German party has cooperated with the AfD to form government. While it caused the resignation of the CDU’s presumed candidate for Chancellor at the next federal election, there has been little impact on German federal polling.

I also covered two late January regional elections in Italy. The left held one region, but the right gained control of the other. In Taiwan, the centre-left candidate won a landslide at January’s presidential election.

Left-wing parties had a massive victory at the German Hamburg state election on Sunday, with a combined 72% of the vote. Hamburg was left-skewed compared to the overall German results at the last federal election.

Sinn Féin surges to 35% in an Irish poll

An Irish poll, taken after the February 8 election gave Sinn Féin a shock popular vote lead, suggests the party would win 35% if no government can be formed and a new election is required. The two conservative parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, that have dominated Irish politics, would respectively win just 17% and 18%. This would be a swing of over 10% to Sinn Féin. If replicated at an election, Ireland would have its first left-wing government.

New Hampshire Democratic primary live commentary

Live commentary on today’s New Hampshire primary. Also: Sinn Féin upsets the conservative duopoly at Saturday’s Irish election. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont

4:05pm Thursday With all precincts reporting, there were almost 297,000 votes in this year’s Democratic primary, up from just over 253,000 in 2016.  So Democratic turnout in New Hampshire was well up on 2016, but this is partly explained by having an uncontested Republican race.

The final outcome is Sanders 25.7%, Buttigieg 24.4%, Klobuchar 19.8%, Warren 9.2% and Biden 8.4%.

8:18pm Conversation article up.  I argue that Klobuchar has a good case for being electable.  She won her three Minnesota Senate races by at least 20 points, far exceeding the presidential lean of Minnesota.  She’s 59, so she doesn’t fall into the 70+ category.

Also, the FiveThirtyEight forecast has the chance that nobody wins a pledged delegate majority up to 33% (one in three).  We could be heading for the first contested convention since 1952.  The next two contests are the Feb 22 Nevada caucus and Feb 29 South Carolina primary.  Then it’s Super Tuesday on March 3.

3:05pm Two US TV networks have CALLED the New Hampshire primary for Bernie Sanders.

2:50pm With 82% in, Sanders’ lead over Buttigieg down to 1.7%.  The NY Times Needle gives him a 68% chance to win.  Hardly a convincing victory in a state where he crushed Clinton 60-38 in 2016.

2:22pm Sanders’ lead over Buttigieg down to 2.1% with 69% in.  The NY Times Needle gives Sanders a 59% chance to win.

2:07pm Took a break for lunch, but didn’t miss much.  Sanders 2.5% ahead of Buttigieg with 64% in (26.4% to 23.9%).  Klobuchar has 20.1%, and both Biden and Warren have less than 10%, and will both miss the 15% threshold to win any NH delegates.

1:02pm CNN has Sanders still ahead in NH by 4.4% over Buttigieg with 41% in.

1pm The NY Times needle is now giving Sanders just a 53% chance to win, with 33% for Buttigieg and 14% Klobuchar.  However, Wasserman on Twitter is projecting Klobuchar will finish third.

12:47pm The NY Times needle is giving Sanders a 59% chance of winning, with Buttigieg a 33% chance and Klobuchar 8%.  But for some reason, CNN’s results are more up to date than the NY Times.

12:37pm With 32% in in the Dem primary, 27.8% Sanders, 23.5% Buttigieg, 20.0% Klobuchar.  Gap opening up between Buttigieg and Klobuchar for 2nd place.  Warren and Biden still at less than 10%.

12:35pm In the Republican primary, Trump has 85%.

12:25pm Dave Wasserman on Twitter

12:17pm 28% Sanders, 23% Buttigieg, 21% Klobuchar with 20% in on the CNN results.

12:12pm 28% Sanders, 22.5% Buttigieg, 20.5% Klobuchar, less than 10% for both Warren and Biden in CNN results with 17% in.

12:05pm CNN is back ahead of the NY Times, and has 28% Sanders, 22% Buttigieg, 20% Klobuchar, 9% Warren, 9% Biden with 14% in.

12pm With 7% in, 28% Sanders, 22% Buttigieg, 20% Klobuchar, 12% Warren, 7.5% Biden.  US election analysts on Twitter are saying Sanders should win.

11:50am With 5% reporting, the NY Times has 30% Sanders, 22% Buttigieg, 18% Klobuchar, 12% Warren and just 7% Biden.

11:40am The CNN New Hampshire results give Sanders 27%, Klobuchar 22%, Buttigieg 21%, Warren just 11% and Biden 8%.  That’s with an estimated 3% in.  So Klobuchar has had a massive surge in New Hampshire.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The final RealClearPolitics poll average for today’s New Hampshire Democratic primary gives Bernie Sanders 28.7%, Pete Buttigieg 21.3%, Amy Klobuchar 11.7%, and Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren both 11.0%. Most polls close at 11am AEDT, with some staying open until 12pm. Unlike Iowa, New Hampshire is a primary, not a caucus. Primaries are administered by the state’s election authorities, not by a party. Counting is slow in New Hampshire.

 Sinn Féin comes first in Irish election

 Irish politics has been dominated by two conservative parties: Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. But at Saturday’s election, the far-left Sinn Féin upset this order by coming first on first preferences with 24.5% (up a massive 10.7% since the 2016 election). Fianna Fáil was second with 22.2% (down 2.1%) and the governing Fine Gael third with 20.9% (down 4.7%). The Greens won 7.1% (up 4.4%). Irish Labour has never been a strong party, and won just 4.4% (down 2.2%).

While Sinn Féin advocates a united Ireland, its success at this election appears to be the result of a campaign focused on homelessness and hospital waiting lists.

Despite winning the popular vote, Sinn Féin was second in lower house seats with 37 of the 160 (up 14). Fianna Fáil won 38 (down six), Fine Gael 35 (down 14), the Greens 12 (up ten), other left-wing parties 17 (up one) and independents 19 (steady). There were two more total seats than in 2016. A Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael grand coalition would have 73 seats, short of the 81 needed for a majority. Government formation is likely to be difficult.

In Tasmania’s Hare-Clark system, which is used in Ireland, leakage from within parties has occasionally cost seats. In Ireland, leakage is a bigger problem, as the ballot paper lists candidates alphabetically, not by party grouping (see Antony Green). To reduce leakage, Sinn Féin only nominated 42 candidates, and were unable to benefit as much as they should have from their late campaign surge.

Previous Irish elections have been held during the working week, but this one was on Saturday. Turnout was expected to increase, but it actually fell 2.2% to 62.9%.

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