The road ahead: Dunkley, Inala and more

With dates set for a federal and a Queensland state by-election, a review of looming electoral events.

House of Representatives Speaker Milton Dick has announced the Dunkley by-election will be held on March 2, with nominations to close on February 8 and be decared the following day, and the Poll Bludger’s guide to the by-election is now up and running. It is the first of my guides to feature historical results charts for the primary vote as well as two-party preferred (among many other things), which I hope is of use to somebody because it involved a lot of work.

In a report on the by-election in The Age yesterday, David Crowe related that “this masthead reported last week that Labor officials privately believe the Coalition has the edge”. I am not clear if this refers to a report from Broede Carmody, saying only that the officials “expect a swing against them”, or one from Paul Sakkal saying “both parties are privately downplaying their chances”.

The other by-election on the way is in Queensland for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s safe Labor seat of Inala, which Premier Steven Miles has confirmed will be held simultaneously with the local government elections on March 16. Seemingly assured of Labor endorsement is Margie Nightingale, former teacher and policy adviser to Treasurer Cameron Dick, who has the support of the Right. Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports the Liberal National Party is “due to preselect its candidate within a fortnight” – I will hold off doing an election guide until then.

The council elections are of substantial interest in their own right, with Brisbane City Council in particular being both the most powerful and the most partisan local government jurisdiction in the country. The conservatives have been dominant since Campbell Newman became Lord Mayor in 2004. The current incumbent, Adrian Schrinner, won by 56.3-43.7 after preferences in 2020, a swing to Labor of 3.0% from 2016. His Labor opponent this time is Tracey Price, a lawyer and sewing shop owner.

The Liberal National Party’s dominance on council reached new heights with the elections of 2016 and 2020, both of which saw them win 19 out of 26 council wards, leaving five for Labor and one each for Greens and an independent. The Greens have high hopes of expanding their footprint after their federal breakthrough in 2022, to the extent of talking up the possibility of displacing Labor as the council opposition. Considerably more detail on the elections is available courtesy of Ben Raue at the Tally Room.

Also looming are Tasmania’s periodic Legislative Council elections, presumably to be held on May 4, which this year encompass two of the chamber’s fifteen seats: Prosser, covering rural territory immediately north of Hobart, and the self-explanatory seat of Hobart. These are of particular interest this year because former Greens leader Cassy O’Connor has abandoned her seat in the lower house to run for Hobart, which if successful will win the Greens its first ever seat in the chamber. The seat will be vacated with the retirement of Rob Valentine, who has held it as an independent since 2012. Prosser is held for the Liberals by Jane Howlett, one of the chamber’s four Liberal members, who won narrowly in 2018 and may struggle amid the government’s declining fortunes. Labor likewise holds four seats, the remaining seven being independents.

Freshwater Strategy: 50-50 (open thread)

As Labor and Liberal get candidates in place for the Dunkley by-election, Freshwater Strategy all but repeats its poll result from a month ago.

The News Corp Sunday papers yesterday carried a Freshwater Strategy poll showing 50-50 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 31%, Coalition 39%, Greens 14% and others 15%. This is very similar to results the same pollster produced for the Financial Review last month, differing only in that the Greens were on 13% and others 16%. The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1007.

News Corp’s coverage was incomplete with respect to voting intention and focused on attitudinal findings: that 81% said the government was not doing enough about the cost of living, 51% said the country was headed in the wrong direction, 51% expected “green measures” would increase power costs, and that while 52% said they would vote yes to a republic, 55% did not think a referendum should be held “now”. The utility of these numbers is limited by the News Corp report’s lack of detail on contrary and uncommitted responses, on which I can shed no further light.

In other news, Labor and Liberal have both confirmed their candidates for the Dunkley by-election, expected to be held late February at the soonest. Labor’s candidate is Jodie Belyea, manager of a foundation that provides tertiary scholarships for disadvantaged women, who was endorsed by the party’s national executive with backing from the Socialist Left faction. For the Liberals, Frankston mayor Nathan Conroy was chosen yesterday from a ballot of local party members with a reported 89 votes, against 40 for former state MP Donna Hope and 25 for Bec Buchanan.

New Year miscellany: Dunkley by-election, preselection and polling round-up (open thread)

First reports emerge of preselection contenders for the looming Dunkley by-election, plus state polls from Victoria and Queensland and much else besides.

First up, developments ahead of the Dunkley by-election, which Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reported yesterday was “unlikely to be held before late February”:

• A Liberal preselection ballot scheduled for January 14 is expected to include Frankston mayor Nathan Conroy; Donna Hope, who as Donna Bauer held the state seat of Carrum from 2010 to 2014 and is now an electorate officer to Chris Crewther, former federal member for Dunkley and now state member for Mornington; Bec Buchanan, another staffer to Crewther and the party’s state candidate for Carrum in 2022; and Sorrento real estate agent David Burgess, who was on the party’s Legislative Council ticket for Eastern Victoria in 2022.

Paul Sakkal of The Age today reports the widower of the late Labor member Peta Murphy, Rod Glover, is being encouraged to seek preselection by “senior Labor figures”. The report describes Glover as a “respected former staffer to Kevin Rudd, university professor and public policy expert”. Also mentioned in Rachel Baxendale’s report were Madison Child, an “international relations and public policy graduate in her mid twenties who grew up in Frankston”, and has lately worked as an electorate officer to Murphy; Georgia Fowler, a local nurse who ran in Mornington at the November 2022 state election; and Joshua Sinclair, chief executive of the Committee for Frankston and Mornington Peninsula.

Other preselection news:

• Tim Wilson has confirmed he will seek Liberal preselection to recover the Melbourne seat of Goldstein following his defeat at the hands of teal independent Zoe Daniel in 2022. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports he is “unlikely to face a challenger”.

Lydia Lynch of The Australian today reports nominations for Liberal National Party preselection will close on January 15 in the inner Brisbane seat of Ryan, which the party lost to Elizabeth Watson-Brown of the Greens in 2022, and the Gold Coast seat of McPherson, which will be vacated with the retirement of Karen Andrews. The front-runner in the former case is said to be Maggie Forrest, barrister and the party’s honorary legal adviser. In addition to the previously identified Ben Naday, Leon Rebello and David Stevens in McPherson (the first two being rated the front-runners) is Adam Fitzgibbons, head of public affairs at Coles. Party insiders are said to be “increasingly concerned” about the emergence of a “McPherson Matters” group that is preparing a teal independent bid for the seat.

Lily McCaffrey of the Herald-Sun reports Emanuele Cicchiello, deputy principal Lighthouse Christian College deputy principal, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Aston, the Melbourne seat that was lost to the party in a historic by-election result on April 1. Cicchiello ran unsuccessfully in Bruce in 2013 and has made numerous other bids for preselection.

• Rochelle Pattison, chair of Transgender Victoria and director of corporate finance firm Chimaera Capital, has nominated for Liberal preselection in Kooyong, joining an existing field consisting of Amelia Hamer, Susan Morris and Michael Flynn.

• The New South Wales Liberal Party website records two unheralded federal election candidates in Sam Kayal, a local accountant who will again run in Werriwa following an unsuccessful bid in 2022, and Katie Mullens, conservative-aligned solicitor at Barrak Lawyers who ran for the state seat of Parramatta in March and has now been preselected for the federal seat of the same name.

Polling news:

• The Courier-Mail sought to read the temperature of Queensland politics post-Annastacia Palaszczuk without breaking the budget by commissioning a uComms robopoll, crediting the Liberal National Party opposition with a two-party lead of 51-49. The only detail provided on primary votes was that the LNP was on 36.2% and Labor 34.4% – no indication was provided as to whether this was exclusive of the uncommitted, which is often not the case withuComms. Steven Miles was viewed positively by 42.7% and negatively by 27.6%, with only the positive rating of 37.8% provided for David Crisafulli. A forced response question on preferred premier had Crisafulli leading Miles by 52.2-47.8. True to the Courier-Mail style guide, the report on this unremarkable set of numbers included the words “startling”, “explosive”, “whopping” and “stunning”. The initial report on Tuesday was accompanied by a hook to a follow-up that promised to tell “who Queenslanders really wanted as Annastacia Palaszczuk’s replacement”. The answer was revealed the next day to be Steven Miles, favoured by 37.8% over Shannon Fentiman on 35.0% and Cameron Dick on 27.1%. The poll was conducted December 21 and 22 from a sample of 1911.

• RedBridge Group has a poll of Victorian state voting intention showing Labor leading 55.9-44.1, little different to the 55.0-45.0 result at the November 2022 election. The primary votes are Labor 37% (36.7% at the election), Coalition 36% (34.5%) and Greens 13% (11.5%). Extensive further results include leadership ratings inclusive of “neither approve nor disapprove” option that find Jacinta Allan viewed positively by 24%, negatively by 30% and neutrally by 32%, John Pesutto at 16% positive, 36% neutral and 29% negative, and Greens leader Samantha Ratnam at 14% positive, 29% neutral and 35% negative. The poll was conducted December 2 to 12 from a sample of 2026.

• Nine Newspapers published results from Resolve Strategic on Thursday on whether various politicians were viewed positively, neutrally, negatively or not at all, which it had held back from its last national poll nearly a month ago. Whereas a similar recent exercise by Roy Morgan simply invited respondents to identify politicians they did and didn’t trust, this one took the to-my-mind more useful approach of presenting respondents with a set list of forty names. In the federal sphere, the five most positively rated were Penny Wong (net 14%, meaning the difference between her positive and negative results), Jacqui Lambie (10%), Jacinta Price (6%), David Pocock (5%) and Tanya Plibersek (3%). The lowest were Scott Morrison (minus 35%), Lidia Thorpe (minus 29%, a particularly remarkable result given what was presumably modest name recognition), Barnaby Joyce (minus 27%), Pauline Hanson (minus 25%) and, interestingly, Bob Katter (minus 15%). Of state leaders, Chris Minns (plus 14%) and David Crisafulli (plus 9%) did notably well, and John Pesutto (minus 7%) and the since-departed Annastacia Palaszczuk (minus 17%) notably poorly. The poll was conducted November 29 to December 3 from a sample of 1605.

Weekend miscellany: Liberal preselection argybargy and by-election results (open thread)

Liberal preselection turbulence across four states, and a look at the final results from Fadden and Rockingham.

It’s been three weeks since Newspoll, which more often than not means another one should be along tonight. On that note, academic Murray Goot writes in Inside Story that there has been an “unreported upheaval” at YouGov’s Australian operation, which conducts the poll, in which “virtually all of those working in the public affairs and polling unit” have left – including Campbell White, who had been its head since it took over Newspoll in the wake of the 2019 election.

Until then, here’s the usual weekly assembly of federally relevant preselection news:

Paul Karp of The Guardian reports factional conservatives consider their preselection challengers “likely” to defeat Melissa McIntosh in Lindsay and a “good chance” against Sussan Ley in Farrer. Alex Hawke “may require support from moderate Liberals” in Mitchell, and the move against Paul Fletcher in Bradfield is “considered unlikely to succeed”.

Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Brendan Blomeley’s bid for the state presidency of the Tasmanian Liberal Party marks part of an effort by Eric Abetz’s conservative faction to gain control of the state executive with a view to placing Blomeley on the Senate ticket at the expense of Richard Colbeck, securing a political comeback for Abetz in state parliament, and potentially undermining the preselection of arch-moderate Bass MP Bridget Archer.

Eli Greenblat of The Australian reports the front-runners for Liberal preselection in Higgins are William Stoltz, senior manager at cybersecurity firm CyberCX and associate at the Australian National University’s National Security College, and Marcus Pearl, Port Phillip councillor and former mayor and chief executive of financial advisory and consulting services firm QMV. Katie Allen, who lost the seat to Labor’s Michelle Ananda-Rajah last year, is reportedly keen to run again, but faces resistance because she crossed the floor to oppose the Morrison government’s amendments to religious discrimination laws.

• Party sources cited by The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column report that a disputes committee of the Liberal National Party in Queensland is likely to rule in favour of Senator Gerard Rennick’s challenge to his narrow preselection defeat last month, resulting in the process being repeated.

By-election latest:

• Quicker than I would have expected, the Western Australian Electoral Commission has conducted its full preference count from last Saturday’s Rockingham by-election. This showed Liberal candidate Peter Hudson finished third behind independent Hayley Edwards, the latter overcoming a primary vote deficit of 17.7% to 15.9% on preferences to lead by 22.1% to 21.0% at the final exclusion. Labor’s Magenta Marshall went on to win at the final count with 13,412 votes (61.4%) to Edwards’ 8443 (38.6%).

• While the preference distribution is still to be conducted, the last remaining postal votes have been added for the Fadden by-election, confirming a two-party swing to the LNP of 2.72%. On Thursday, Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review related a bullish take on the result presented to the Coalition party room by Senator James McGrath, which noted an elevated swing of 9% in “booths where there was a high rate of mortgages”. However, this was selectively based on the LNP primary vote in two booths – taking the newly developed Coomera and Pimpama area in total, the two-party swing was 5.5%. Further, the suburbs in question are dominated not so much by mortgage payers (32.8% of private dwellings as of the 2021 census, compared with 35.0% nationwide) as renters (55.5% compared with 30.6%). McGrath also claimed a 3.5% drop in independent Stewart Brooker’s vote was a measure of how much Labor benefited from top position on the ballot paper, which at least triples more judicious estimates of the donkey vote effect. Overlooked was the fact that Brooker was part of a field of thirteen this time and seven last time, and went from being the only independent to one of three.

Fadden by-election live

Live coverage of the count for the Fadden federal by-election.

Click here for full display of Fadden by-election results.

Monday
Along with rechecking, a further batch of postals today broke 699-271 to the LNP.

Sunday
A second batch of postals was added today, breaking 1289-602 compared with 5601-2247 for the election night batch, or 68.2% for the LNP compared with 71.4%. Also added were 262 Special Hospital Team votes, which broke about evenly.

Saturday night
12.05am. End of counting for the evening, with the AEC having accounted for all available results on primary and two-party by the close of business. Around half of a likely final total of 16,000 or so postals have been counted, with the remainder accounting for all of a few of the votes still to come. Unless I’m missing something, that suggests a rather meagre turnout in the low seventies, compared with 85.6% in Aston. To that can be added an increase in the informal vote share from 4.4% to 6.2%, as compared with a stable 3.3% in Aston.

10.23pm. Large Helensvale pre-poll, with 11,918 formal votes, reports with par-for-the-course swings on the primary vote.

10.08pm. Labrador pre-poll has reported its TPP: 2.7% swing to LNP.

9.35pm. The Gold Coast North pre-poll booth — the one that did well for the LNP — is now in on two-party, showing a 6.3% swing to the LNP.

9.30pm. The Runaway Bay pre-poll becomes the third to report on the primary vote, and it’s a big one — 14,432 formal votes. Like Labrador (2544 formal votes) and unlike Gold Coast North (3435), the swings are more or less the same as the election day booths.

9.16pm. A second pre-poll centre, Labrador, has reported on the primary vote — whereas the Gold Coast North centre was better for the LNP than the election day vote in swing terms, this one is basically the same.

9.02pm. Bug fixed — no new results of consequence came in while I was doing it.

8.46pm. A minor bug in my results page: the projected swing is rounding to full (percentage) numbers and not the first decimal place as intended, so it flips between 2.0% and 3.0% as the projection falls below and above 2.5%. The actual projection is 2.51%.

8.45pm. The first pre-poll voting centre (Gold Coast North) is in, and the result is above-par for the LNP, their primary vote up 8.3% with Labor little changed.

8.15pm. After being solid for quite a while on 3.0%, my projection of the LNP two-party swing just fell to 2.0%.

8.10pm. David Speers on the ABC says Labor are projecting a 2.1% two-party swing, compared with my 3.0%.

7.56pm. Looking like a high informal vote rate of approaching 7%. This isn’t booth matched, but the informal vote for ordinary votes in 2022 was 4.6%. Compare and contrast Aston, where the informal vote was 3.3% at both the election and the by-election.

7.46pm. As Murray Watt points out on the ABC, the absence of the United Australia Party, who were worth 6.3% last year, needs to be taken into account in looking at primary vote swings. No doubt this explains the One Nation vote holding up, and probably hasn’t done the LNP any harm either.

7.38pm. Things seem to be settling in now: the LNP is up on the primary vote, Labor little changed, One Nation doing well to hold even amid a bigger field of candidates, Legalise Cannabis doing well to knock on the door of double figures, and a poor result for the Greens, who are probably losing vote share to Legalise Cannabis (who weren’t in the field last time). What might change all this is a different dynamic on pre-poll voting, which we won’t know about until a fair bit later in the night.

7.25pm. Good results for the LNP from Sanctuary Cove and Coombabah South push the swing out further, to what I’m projecting at 4.0% on two-party.

7.18pm. Now it’s clear everything is running smoothly, my obligatory request for donations, which you can make my clicking “Become a Supporter” in the blue band at the top of the page.

7.16pm. Four booths in now on TCP and my system is calling it for the LNP.

7.15pm. Six booths in now on the primary vote, coming in quick enough that I won’t be able to offer comment on them individually. The LNP’s good result at Pimpama East looks like an outlier amid an overall status quo result.

7.12pm. Studio Village in on TPP — 0.6% swing to LNP.

7.11pm. Greens running fifth, behind One Nation and Legalise Cannabis, both on double figures. Gold Coast not exactly a happy hunting ground for them.

7.09pm. Pimpama East booth is in, and it’s a bad result for Labor, who are down nearly 5% with the LNP up nearly 10%. My LNP win probability estimate is now out to 95%.

7.03pm. Another plug for the map display on my results page, which you can activate by clicking on the button at the bottom of the page. Numbers indicate the booth has recorded two-party preferred numbers, with the colour recording the party that won the booth (teal for LNP, red for Labor) and the number their share of TPP. Where only the primary vote is in, the dot is coloured to indicate the leading party. White dots denote no result yet. Click on whatever it is and a table will pop up showing full results.

6.59pm. Legalise Cannabis are on double figures, and One Nation are more than holding up despite more competition for the minor party vote.

6.55pm. The second booth to report on the primary vote is Studio Village at the southern end of the electorate, and like Alberton, it records little primary vote swing for either major party.

6.30pm. The TCP booth is now in from the Alberton booth (highly efficient work there) and it’s a 1.6% swing to the LNP. My projections will continue to work off estimates until the TCP count reaches 1%.

6.28pm. The booth interestingly has One Nation level with Labor, but this is a particularly weak booth for Labor.

6.24pm. Was being a bit conservative with my estimates of when results would start — there are actually some very small booths in the seat, and one, Alberton, has primary votes for us already. These show both major parties up slightly on the primary vote.

5.30pm. With half an hour to go before polls close, welcome to the Poll Bludger’s coverage of the Fadden by-election count. After polls close at 6pm, you will find through the above link live updated results, including full booth details in both tabular and map display (click on the button at the bottom of the page) and swing-based projections and probability estimates. This post will offer live commentary as the results come through, the first of which I imagine will be in a bit before 7pm.

Fadden and other by-elections

All the news that’s fit to print about tomorrow’s Fadden by-election, plus timetable details for the Warrandyte by-election in Victoria.

The Fadden by-election is upon us tomorrow, and the Poll Bludger’s results page stands ready for action, to provide live updates of results down to booth level in tabular and map form (the latter viewable by clicking the “activate” button at the bottom of the page) together with projections, probability estimates and data on preference flows.

News from the front:

• Queensland Labor Senator Murray Watt candidly stated yesterday that his party had “zero chance” of overcoming the 10.6% margin, and no word coming out of the Coalition camp has indicated otherwise.

Paul Karp of The Guardian reports that the Liberal National Party has been concerned enough about the Aston precedent to have sent a six-figure sum on digital, billboard and television advertising, whereas Labor has conducted a digital-only campaign costing about $30,000, much of it targeting outgoing member Stuart Robert over robodebt.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has expressed concern about low turnout for early voting, with only 16,000 votes cast as of Monday compared with 22,000 at the same stage at the 2022 election. Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group told the Age/Herald that a low turnout would likely hamper Labor, as the effect would be concentrated among younger voters.

Maggie Perry of 6News has helpfully assembled a table summarising how-to-vote card recommendations, the most significant feature of which is an active recommendation by One Nation that LNP candidate Cameron Caldwell go well ahead of Labor’s Letitia Del Fabbro.

In other by-election news, the timetable for Warrandyte has been revealed, with the closure of nominations and ballot paper draw set for Thursday, August 10, early voting to open on Monday, August 14, and polling day on Saturday, August 24. The big question of whether Labor will be taking the field remains unanswered. The other by-election on the horizon, for Mark McGowan’s seat of Rockingham in Western Australia, will be held a fortnight from tomorrow.

By-election latest: Fadden, Rockingham, Warrandyte

Candidates confirmed and ballot papers drawn for Fadden and Rockingham, and Liberal preselection determined for Warrandyte.

Candidates were announced and ballot paper orders drawn for two of the three looming by-elections, an occasion I have marked with guides to the two in question — the federal by-election for Fadden on July 15, and the Western Australian state by-election for Rockingham on July 29. As well as providing a dedicated comments thread for discussion of the by-election, this post offers a summary of the most recent developments from all three, the most notable of which are for the Victorian state by-election for Warrandyte, for which a date is yet to be determined:

• A Liberal preselection held on Sunday to choose a candidate for the Warrandyte state by-election in Victoria was won by Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, who ran unsuccessfully for the party in Box Hill at the November state election. Werner is the daughter of Malaysian Chinese migrants and a former youth pastor with Pentecostal church Planetshakers, who now works as the business development for Empower Australia, a food relief centre run by the church. She prevailed in the preselection vote amid a field of nine, which after progressive rounds winnowed the field down to Werner, Institute of Public Affairs director John Roskam, and 22-year-old law student Antonietta di Cosmo. Werner and Roskam were at this point tied for second, which was resolved with a special round of voting that determined the result for Werner. The majority of Roskam’s backers then fell in behind Werner, who defeated di Cosmo in the final round with 55 votes to 50 (with “some members leaving early”, according to The Age). Labor sources cited by The Age on Monday said Labor would decide if it would field a candidate by the end of the week, but I have yet to hear any further.

• Nine candidates have nominated for Rockingham, the Liberal candidate being Peter Hudson, a 21-year-old resources sector recruitment consultant who ran for the party in Brand at last year’s federal election, and was the only nominee for preselection. Also in the field is Rockingham deputy mayor Hayley Edwards, who was mentioned as a potential candidate for Labor but will instead run as an independent.

• With a crowded field of 13 candidates, Labor has had rather the better of the ballot paper draw in Fadden, their candidate Letitia Del Fabbro placed at the top while Cameron Caldwell of the Liberal National Party is second last.

Miscellany: by-elections latest (open thread)

Major party starters in place for Fadden, a date set for Rockingham, and nine candidates emerge for Liberal preselection in Warrandyte.

News to report on the three by-elections presently in view – one federal and two state, two with dates confirmed and one to be announced:

• The Liberal National Party candidate for the Fadden by-election on July 15 will be long-serving Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell, who won a final round vote of 153 preselectors over Dinesh Palipana, with Fran Ward, Owen Caterer and Craig Hobart falling by the wayside in earlier rounds. Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports a meeting of Labor’s administrative committee last Friday unanimously endorsed Letitia Del Fabbro, a nurse educator who was also the candidate at the May 2022 election.

• Nine candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection in Warrandyte, expected to be held in about a fortnight, controversial former Kew MP Tim Smith not being among them. As reported by Rachel Baxendale in The Australian, they are John Roskam, former executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs; Sarah Overton, KPMG director; Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, who ran in Box Hill at the November state election; Jason McClintock, a tech business founder who ran in Eltham (and who donated heavily to the party’s state election campaign); David Farrelly, who ran in Pakenham; Jemma Townson, “energy industry communications director and former Matthew Guy and Katie Allen staffer”; Antonietta di Cosmo, 22-year-old “Ryan Smith staffer, champion rower and law student”; Allison Troth, “cancer campaigner and former John Howard staffer”; and Andrew Conlon, “Manningham councillor and maths teacher”. The report says factional conservatives are likely to back Roskam or Werner, while “an opposing factional grouping that coalesces around powerbrokers Frank Greenstein and Holly Byrne” might support Overton, McClintock or Townson.

• The Rockingham by-election to replace Mark McGowan has been set for July 29. The West Australian reports that Labor’s candidate will likely be Magenta Marshall, who has won backing from the Right, despite last week saying she was “not sure it’s my time”. Marshall is in her late twenties and works in a “specialised campaigning role” in party headquarters, having previously been an electorate officer to Balcatta MP David Michael.