ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

ReachTEL records a break to Labor after a period of stasis – yet also finds them trailing badly in a crucial Victorian marginal seat.

Good news and bad news for both sides this evening courtesy of the latest ReachTEL polls for the Seven Network, which have Labor opening up a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred nationally, but trailing 54-46 in the fairly crucial Liberal-held Victorian marginal of Corangamite. The national poll has the Coalition down 1.5% to 41.1%, Labor down 0.1% to 36.5%, the Greens down 0.3% to 9.6% and the Nick Xenophon Team back up to 4.3% after an anomalous drop from 4.2% to 2.7% last time. This gives Labor a two-party lead of 52-48 after three successive results of 50-50. It should be noted that this was achieved from a heavy flow of respondent-allocated preferences to Labor: using preference flows from 2013, and folding the Nick Xenophon Team into a generic “others” category, the result would be around 50.6-49.4. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are stable: combined very good and good is up 0.8% to 29.4%, combined poor plus very poor is up 1.7% to 36.8%. Bill Shorten’s improving trend continues, with very good plus good up 1.2% to 29.1% and poor plus very poor down 1.5% to 36.9%. Preferred prime minister continues a slow narrowing trend, now at 54.9-45.1 in favour of Turnbull compared with 55.6-44.4 last time. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2700.

The Corangamite poll is quite a different matter, with Liberal member Sarah Henderson credited with 54-46 lead on two-party preferred, and 48.3% of the primary vote when a forced preference question for the 7.7% undecided is included with the result. Both numbers are exactly identical to the result in 2013, when she unseated Labor’s Darren Cheeseman with a 4.2% swing. The primary votes also record Labor losing ground to the Greens, with Labor on 27.1% and the Greens on 15.0%, compared with 32.0% and 11.9% at the election. This poll was also conducted last night, from a sample of 770.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,950 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  5. cupidstunt @ #1898 Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 10:56 pm

    I think Shorten is going to announce their NBN policy in the final week to hammer Turnbull and finish him off.

    There are a number of threads that need to be drawn together and the last week is too late to do it.

    The LNP through their attack on our manufacturing base (car industry, clean energy), scientific base (CSIRO), education base (Gonski, deregulation of uni-fees) and NBN are completely undermining the scientific, industrial and knowledge base that our future depends on.

    And they have the audacity to talk about Jobs and Growth? They are the great destroyers. Vandals writ large.

    It is Labor which is in fact proposing the policies that will lead to future technological progress, economic growth and jobs.

  8. Bemused
    Was just making the point that the electorate could be fully engaged at that point and a great NBN policy by Labor could put the final nail in Malcolms coffin.

  9. cupidstunt @ #1908 Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 11:18 pm

    Bemused
    Was just making the point that the electorate could be fully engaged at that point and a great NBN policy by Labor could put the final nail in Malcolms coffin.

    And I was making the point that there is a bigger picture into which the NBN fits and it has a much more powerful narrative.

  10. I suspect we’ll see a Morgan and an Essential this week. If Fairfax is planning to go fortnightly with Ipsos during the election campaign, then a poll would be due from them this coming Saturday. And who knows, there might be some other, smaller polling companies in the field (e.g. Lonergan).

  11. Solid from Shorten, and got one or two good hits in too on his opponent.
    Turnball? The more I see of this blowhard, the more I dislike him, he even makes Abbott look less repulsive in comparison.
    Of course the CPG would call it a dull, boring draw – after all, they still want their Messiah Malcolm to win.
    I’d still put the Liberals in front, overall, on the basis of the number of seats they’d need to lose, to be out of office, BUT Shorten is a worthy challenger and he could make this thing agonisingly close

  12. Shorten needs something big for the campaign launch – nothing better than an NBN policy, or a big health announcement.

  13. “Shorten needs something big for the campaign launch – nothing better than an NBN policy, or a big health announcement.”

    Or both.

  14. Adrian back at 9.15pm: Of course Turnbull has a plan – it’s to give a $50 bill tax cut to business, cross their fingers, and hope that that will lead to jobs’n’growth. Not what I’d call a plan, but it’s what they call one.

  15. Bemused.
    Thats why I am a bit surprised that Shorten doesnt hammer Turnbull more on the closure of the car industry,clean energy,renewable energy job losses to prove its the Fibs who are the job destroyers.

  16. bemused @ #1909 Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 11:20 pm

    cupidstunt @ #1908 Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 11:18 pm

    Bemused
    Was just making the point that the electorate could be fully engaged at that point and a great NBN policy by Labor could put the final nail in Malcolms coffin.

    And I was making the point that there is a bigger picture into which the NBN fits and it has a much more powerful narrative.

    The narrative I only sketched is the basis of a much more credible plan to produce technological progress, industrial development, a more skilled workforce, economic growth and jobs than is a ‘plan’ that is nothing more than a company tax cut. It can be sold and would blow Turnbull completely out of the water.

  17. The Murdoch media have all called it a ‘narrow win’ for Turnbull – as well as calling it boring (so readers don’t go an look at it for themselves) and accusing Labor of trying to ‘cheat’ by organising on-line voting on the result (as if both parties don’t do this) so as to explain why any on-line poll might give the result to Shorten.

    the hearld sun reporting is remedial english propaganda of the worst order.

    The debate was uninspiring, but I though shorten got in some very good and pithy points. the “I lead my party. Your party leads you” line is a goodie.

    More needs to be made of divisions/civil war within the LNP and the fact that Turnbull is hated by at least 30% of his own party and by nearly all of the Nationals.

  18. Sorry, but I thought the debate was appalling. Contrived , predictable, questions bringing out contrived responses from both. Boring as batsdroppings. The earlier SkyNews debate, based on audience questions was really far more informative as well as far more watchable and brought out the nature of the two protagonists far more effectively, Shorten especially. Afraid it’s the first ever such debate I’ve given up on before reaching the end. Almost made the treasurers’ debate look exciting by comparison.

    Appallingly staged too. The backdrop was ugly and distracting, and the camera placement did Shorten especially no favours at all. He seemed uncertain where to focus his eyes for a lot of it. Uhlman was bloody Uhlman and apart from Tingle the others weren’t any better.
    If the next one is the same format I doubt I’ll waste my time on it.

  19. Bemused.
    I agree with your statement for sure. It would be just a headline grabber after what happened with the raids over the NBN that the NBN could be more prominent in peoples minds as inevitably everyone will be connected to it at some point.

  20. Has anyone else noticed the wall-to-wall online national security advertising, not to mention TV ads? Report anything that looks suspicious? This is a blatant breach of the caretaker conventions. The advertising is designed to make people worried about their personal security. And that advantages one side of politics. How could the ads still be running?

  21. Canberra Boy
    I think with Terrorism etc both parties are in lock step with each other so i couldnt see any advantage to either side vote wise.

  22. “How could the ads still be running?”

    Because the conjobs have given up even the pretense of following rules and conventions.

    In their world view such restraints only apply to others, while they are entitled to do as they please.

  23. The MSM make a big deal of the debate before it happens and then says afterwards says”Was anybody listening?”. Why make a big deal of it in the first place then.F……..G idiots.

  24. rod hagen @ #1918 Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 11:37 pm

    Sorry, but I thought the debate was appalling. .

    I heard a comment saying it was like two people delivering press-conferences next to each other. I think that about nails it. That being said, there was something Turnbull did that wasn’t good at all. He didn’t know whether he was talking to the audience, the moderator, the camera, or the voter, and it showed.

  25. Apart from the audience members, Ive never met a single person who says a debate changed their vote. No one except you lot will even own to to watching one. They are a beltway issue.

  26. they designed the debate and it is Toolman and co who made it so damn plain and boring. And I bet it was the format Turnbull wanted.

  27. The format was not conducive to a good debate and neither leader was likely to use it for anything other than a good opportunity to engage with the television audience. At that Shorten was the hands down winner.

  28. I had a couple of friends message me and say they saw the debate and that Turnbull is an idiot who only sticks up for rich people.

  30. Cupid,

    Yes, the MSM beat the debate up beforehand and now are playing it down afterwards.
    It’s obvious they didn’t get the result they wanted.
    As if they would. They can’t admit which way the wind is blowing.

  33. canberra boy @ #1920 Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 11:48 pm

    Has anyone else noticed the wall-to-wall online national security advertising, not to mention TV ads? Report anything that looks suspicious? This is a blatant breach of the caretaker conventions. The advertising is designed to make people worried about their personal security. And that advantages one side of politics. How could the ads still be running?

    I haven’t seen em but it’s doubtful that making voters feel unsafe will necessarily advantage the LNP. While the intensity is obviously variable, I reckon nearly all voters feel a certain level of apprehension about their and their families’ well-being nearly all the time. The LNP have tried to tie this to fear of specific menaces. Refugees, terrorists and the stereotypical outsider are the most obvious examples. They have also tried to summon fear of unionists and of financial abstractions, such as “debt and deficits”. I think fear is a very commonly felt emotion and that it is cultivated by the media, by political outfits, by social story-telling . It extends to anxieties about the climate, the economy, “state” power, crime, the unemployed, the homeless and other out-groups, illness and “the future”.

    When viewed holistically, Labor are running themes that are all about personal and social well-being and security. At their most general level, Labor’s themes are about relief from anxiety. Even tonight, in the leaders’ debate, Shorten was at pains to reiterate the claim that voters can trust Labor. He must have used the word “trust” 10 times or more. He also very successfully conflated trust and economic growth in his closing remarks.

    Trust is an antidote to fear. It is also a truism that happiness is not possible without trust. It’s usual for the LNP try to invoke fear. However, right alongside them Labor are promoting security and trust. It follows that whenever the LNP raise fear they are actually campaigning for Labor.

    This was certainly a factor in Abbott’s decline. He very obviously tried to invoke fear. But he miscued. Voters felt afraid of Abbott himself. By contrast, Labor (the opposite in every sense to Abbott) represented a very convincing respite from that fear. In deposing Abbott, Turnbot also released voters from their anxiety about Abbott.

    However, the basic level of anxiety – a well-toughened substrate in our consciousness – has not been repealed. It persists. Labor speak to it all the time. Nearly everything they say and do is a response to this anxiety.

  37. Isn’t it about time for some white anting from the you beaut Abbott team… It might be a poll free week so a juicy scandal supplied by the Monkey Pod might liven the week up.

    Tom.

  38. On the Newspoll above, Antony Green’s gadget (allowing for sophomore effects) delivers a dead heat 73/73/4. Fascinatingly close.

    T’s net-sat @ -11…huge shift. Clearly, not up to the job!

  40. The prospective success of NXT in SA will be interesting to watch, especially if NXT draws support away from each one of Labor, Liberal and G. If Newspoll turns out to be right, the G’s may lose both their SA Senators. The rise of NXT must pose a some serious questions for the G’s. If a centrist outfit can rise from nothing to one-third of the PV in SA, how come the G’s are stuck on one-ninth or less, taken nationally? Will the G’s try to move from the left-populist margin to the centre? Will they attempt to merge with NXT? If they did, could they hope to win seats in the House?

  43. Xenophon first started out campaigning against poker machines. This happened after a vulnerable person he know flushed his whole compensation payout down the casino’s poker machines in one afternoon. I believe the person had some sort of brain injury or something, and the payment was gone before anyone could get to him at the casino to stop him from losing it.
    A lot of people including me supported that stance. He has expanded since then. He is not a front for the liberal party.

  44. I doubt Xenothon could have been as successful in the Eastern states and mostly I see interstaters being perplexed by him, or dismissing him with a bit of disdain. The fact is in South Australia he is a real alternative for people disenchanted with the majors and who would not touch The Greens with a barge-pole.

  47. matt31 @ #1900 Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 10:58 pm

    So guess it’s going to be a bit flat on the poling front this week? Maybe some marginal seat poling to fill the void; but like most I am very sceptical when it comes to individual seat poling. What I wouldn’t mind seeing is some whole state poling; that might give us a real guide on where the swings are and aren’t happening.

    Then you should look at Newspoll analysis in The Australian today.

  48. Or you could read William’s pdfs up thread.
    (Note to self: read all the posts you missed BEFORE you sally forth into print). 🙂

  49. enjaybee @ #1798 Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 9:07 pm

    Sorry to intrude in the aftermath of the debate but am after help.
    I use Firefox as my browser and up until Friday everything worked fine (including the post number and preview box). Since then however, when I try to get into Poll Bludger, the tab for pollbludger appears but the page won’t open. I have tried disabling grease monkey and CCCP and uninstalling and then re-installing Firefox but still have the same problem (i.e. the page will not open). Anybody with any ideas as to how to fix?

    This is caused by being logged out, and Crickey changing things again.

    New Ver fixes it: cccp

  50. I too was surprised that Shorten did not reference the massive trashing of CSIRO climate and rivers divisions when they were debating climate change.
    Listening to background briefing on the radio whilst driving yesterday – difficult to keep my anger in check!

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