Good news and bad news for both sides this evening courtesy of the latest ReachTEL polls for the Seven Network, which have Labor opening up a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred nationally, but trailing 54-46 in the fairly crucial Liberal-held Victorian marginal of Corangamite. The national poll has the Coalition down 1.5% to 41.1%, Labor down 0.1% to 36.5%, the Greens down 0.3% to 9.6% and the Nick Xenophon Team back up to 4.3% after an anomalous drop from 4.2% to 2.7% last time. This gives Labor a two-party lead of 52-48 after three successive results of 50-50. It should be noted that this was achieved from a heavy flow of respondent-allocated preferences to Labor: using preference flows from 2013, and folding the Nick Xenophon Team into a generic “others” category, the result would be around 50.6-49.4. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are stable: combined very good and good is up 0.8% to 29.4%, combined poor plus very poor is up 1.7% to 36.8%. Bill Shorten’s improving trend continues, with very good plus good up 1.2% to 29.1% and poor plus very poor down 1.5% to 36.9%. Preferred prime minister continues a slow narrowing trend, now at 54.9-45.1 in favour of Turnbull compared with 55.6-44.4 last time. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2700.
The Corangamite poll is quite a different matter, with Liberal member Sarah Henderson credited with 54-46 lead on two-party preferred, and 48.3% of the primary vote when a forced preference question for the 7.7% undecided is included with the result. Both numbers are exactly identical to the result in 2013, when she unseated Labor’s Darren Cheeseman with a 4.2% swing. The primary votes also record Labor losing ground to the Greens, with Labor on 27.1% and the Greens on 15.0%, compared with 32.0% and 11.9% at the election. This poll was also conducted last night, from a sample of 770.
Briefly:
How did your door-knocking go?
It seems the CPG has already figured out that they’ve misjudged the response to the debate and they’re already starting to use terms to underplay it or its impact.
I mean, 5 weeks out doesn’t mean much… but how many times do they need to get it wrong before they figure out they’re out of touch when it comes to the electorate this year?
Turnbot seemed jaded…and Shorten showed some vitality and passion…great contrast in desire and commitment…
Yes, totally ridiculous.
Briefly,
Exactly. Turnbull has been portrayed as the great communicator, Bill as a bit of a joke with the zingers etc.
If Turnbull cannot beat Bill then he has nowhere to hide.
The MSM did Turnbull no favours with the messiah worship when he took over. So much expectation, so far to fall.
For the MSM to be call it a dull draw tonight is a big result for Bill.
Cheers.
That’s fine if Labor is not going to be asked how it is going to do it and how much it will cost. The Liberals can get away with that shit; Labor can’t. It has to have the answers on display, even if they are not part of the selling of the case to the public.
Confessions….reposted from earlier on..
j341983 @ #1852 Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 9:47 pm
………………………………………………………………………….
Thats the same CPG that needed the world Press and how many million hits on YouTube to point out to them they were dead wRONg on Gillard’s misogyny HoR Speech.
…..the CPG have a paid-up lifetime subscription to *WRONG*.
Thats even before mentioning their failing/ death spiraling so called ”business model”.
doyley @ #1855 Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 9:50 pm
Shorten’s messaging is just great….clear, varied, lively, still succinct, animated…no aggro, no whinging…warm..direct…great eye contact (and that is incredibly hard to do into a camera)…he somehow manages to get “right through” the lens…very strong sense of physical presence or immediacy…he is getting better all the time
Shorten really warmed up the more the debate went.
He had turnbulls measure, no matter what Sky say.
As someone who did not watch it, but followed the blogs closely, there were only two take-aways from tonight. And both were huge winners for Bill Shorten.
The first and biggest was creating the soundbite of “I lead my party; your party leads you”. Can anyone think of any example where Turnbull’s leadership has been demonstrated since he took over? I certainly can’t.
The second was how Shorten finally moved from the defensive over boats. It’s been a very long time coming, but it was an accurate and telling riposte that must surely have rocked the Liberals who would think this is their only super weapon in their armory.
We have five weeks to go. I’ll be back for the last couple and very much look forward to it.
Voting on 9 MSN is about 63% to Malleabull http://www.ninemsn.com.au/#jhs6Y7XPgVsu8jsc.99
Thanks for that Briefly. Sounds like your door-knocking experience was a pleasant one.
Bluepill,
Mate, with tripe like that emanating from you keyboard I think I can safely conclude that you have disappeared so far up your fundament that you can’t see the light which you think shines from there. Because there is none!
Lots of heat. Producing lots of hot air. But no light.
And, as for this self-serving, self-referential claptrap about me being such a noob on this blog how could I possibly comprehend the nuances of your position, well, other than being factually incorrect, as I have contributed to this blog for a lot longer than you, but yes there was a hiatus in-between then and recently, frankly, the truth is, why should I engage thoughtfully with someone as aggro and condescending as you? I choose not to, therefore I don’t and won’t. In fact, I’ve wasted too much time on you already. Go find another rube.
Shorten will now feel that he can handle and beat Turnbot anywhere. The TownHall format is second nature to him by now. After tonight, he has proven he can out-run Turnbot at set-pieces. He really is a much better on-camera performer than Turnbot, who cannot manage more than a few seconds at a time. Turnbot has learned to do the 30 second grab. Shorten has learned how to use the lens to bring himself within reach of the viewer. It’s a very great advantage to have.
confessions @ #1863 Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 10:02 pm
I love it and would encourage anyone to have a go. It is really fascinating and rewarding.
The thing about ninemsn voting is it wasnt shown on 9. Only Sky and News 24
[Player One
Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 9:45 pm
Briefly
Nearly 2:1. The LNP must be wishing like hell they had a Plan B. …
Turnbull was “Plan B”!]
There’s always Plan C (Abbott to lead the Opposition after 2 July, Plan D (LNP to split into two or more parties) or Plan E (the LNP rump and fellow travellers to grab their assets and seek asylum in the Cayman Islands).
citizen @ #1868 Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 10:11 pm
I vote for Plan E.
And they should take BlueDill with them.
citizen @ #1868 Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 10:11 pm
lol
Hmm. On the whole, I thought Shorten came out the victor tonight, although neither really seemed to do particularly well or poorly in my opinion. Interesting though that some generally right-leaning media outlets are apparently calling it heavily in Shorten’s favor.
Shorten stumbled a bit arly on and sometimes seemed too awkward and rehearsed, but generally was calm, in control and enjoying himself, generally got his points across and avoiding tripping over tough questions, as well as throwing in some nice little digs at Turnbull on occasion. The answers on climate change were probably where he did best.
Turnbull seemed rather more prepared than he often is, and generallt managed to avoid going off on waffling tangents or digging himself into holes as he often does (though I had to wonder how wise it was to remind people how the Libs dumped him for his climate change views back in ’09) – but as a result also came across as very scripted. The content was all basically the same Lib talking points we’ve heard for months, but he delivered about as well as you would expect, with a minimum of verbosity (by Turnbull standards). And, gee, is it just me, or is he looking more miserable with every passing day? He genuinely looked as though he was in physical pain when giving his opening speech.
On the whole, a pretty dull and surprisingly short debate, occasionally livened up by Shorten’s “zingers.”
Final results on Sky 66-34 Shorten
I just spoke with a mate who tonight saw Shorten for the first time this year and he was very impressed. Of the debate he said he could understand how some would call it a draw but felt Bill exuded greater empathy and Malcolm came across as a bit of snake-oil salesman. He also thought the moderating was fine and if anything a bit tougher on Turnbull over-all. He was, in his words, blown away, by how much better Bill Shorten comes across since the last time he’d seen him. All positive stuff in my view.
The worry for Turnbull is that Sky is a right wing liberal supporting channel so that poll should have been in Turnbulls favour.
Lol! If Malcolm goes into witness protection he is well screwed. Shorten will challenge another go round in front of an interactive audience and do the ” turn up to speak to / debate the empty chair” thing. The Libs cannot let that happen. thnakyou for the advice Peta.
Whilst there could have been labor voters who widened the result in their favour after they saw where to vote, at 9.01pm it was still 56 to 44 in shortens favour.
What a great photo of Laura Tingle by Mike Bowers:
Sky news is full of Lib rejects and failures.No cred,helicopter,Reith,Kroger, list goes on.
If Abbott had left politics, he would be part of Sky News now alongside No cred and helicopter.
I thought tonight was a bit on the dull side. But having said that, Turnbull was his usual self, coming across like the CEO who knows what’s good for everyone, and they had better swallow it or the economy gets it. I think among other things that is a big part of what turns voters off him. Shorten on the other hand relates to people, talks their language and cuts through. Tonight probably won’t change a whole lot of votes, but it also will do nothing to reverse or even stop the current trend away from the Coalition.
A draw (actual or perceived) is effectively a win for Shorten, given his supposed underdog status.
All he had to do tonight was be seen to be competitive, and a draw is good enough to do that.
It means voters will pay more attention to him and Labor than they might have if he had ‘lost’.
As Credlin effectively conceded.
Malcolm has nothing in the locker as a big gun, Bill has the health policy and NBN policy still waiting in his locker.
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Great – hope they take her ‘advice’ – just like abbott did.
Even if turnbull fronts up again – thats even better.
Malcolms shown all his cards with his joke of a budget. Bill still has aces up his sleeve.
Malcolm Turnbull was an Oxford Rhodes Scholar back in the 1970s
Bill Shorten completed his MBA at Melbourne University in the 1990s
Shorten’s more recent and more rigorous academic studies shine through
CupidStunt
The Sky News poll was on Twitter which I would say is more left-leaning. The 9MSN poll came about about the same margin for Turnbull and they are definitely more of a right wing infotainment site.
What a great photo of Laura Tingle by Mike Bowers:
Looks like Laura was missing Paul Keating as well, dullest most boring lifeless non debate from both participants. Both seem to have had a passion by-pass .
The thing about the Sky News poll is it was linked to Paul Murrays show who is one of the biggest RWNJs in the country. If a paedophile stood for the Fibs he would vote for them.
imacca @10:22
As I said earlier tonight you’ll be able to tell how well the Libs marginal sandbagging tactic is going by how often Turnbull turns up for head to heads with Shorten.
If the Libs reckon they’ve got the seats locked down tight enough to win Turnbull will take Peta’s advice and maybe at best give him one more go in the last week when it is too late to have much effect.
I reckon we’ll get at least two more though.
If it gets to three forget it, Labor’s home and hosed.
Turnbull has nothing to campaign on just slogans and a policy vacuum.He will be sick to death of saying just JOBSON GROETHE and OUR ECONOMIC PLAN. This is what he has been reduced to by the right wing plebs that control him like a puppet on a string.
Any pundit would have to concede that Labor’s run has been perfectly timed. Just as a reluctant electorate begins to engage it’s pretty clear that Shorten’s trajectory is on the up and Turnbull’s isn’t. I’m guessing backroom Labor will be feeling a lot happier than their Coalition counterparts right about now… 🙂
All we need now is a 52-47 newspoll
Are we expecting a Newspoll tonight?
No – it was last week.
Major fwark up in the last week would be damaging though. The press seem to be doing the gutless thing at the moment, calling it a “draw”. Nope. I think the Credlin comment is telling and she wouldn’t be recommending putting Turnbull in the position of having to defend not fronting up (no ticker) if she though he’s won tonight.
silentmajority @ #1892 Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 10:52 pm
Or a 52:46 even!!
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/backgroundbriefing/the-inconvenient-scientists/7451660
As I said a few days back, if elected then the first act of a Shorten government – as far as they are legally able – should be to immediately sack Marshall and the entire board that appointed him.
Forget the political cost of defying the diplomatic niceties, or any notion of conventions and bipartisanship (which the LNP have ruthlessly and comprehensively trashed in recent years). Forget the financial cost of terminating their contracts. These are nothing compared to the broader real world cost of leaving these wreckers and their agenda in place. This is far too serious. We cannot play any more games with this stuff. These anti-science whores to Mammon can’t be trusted to boil an egg and must be removed ASAP.
I think Shorten is going to announce their NBN policy in the final week to hammer Turnbull and finish him off.
52:48 would be fine thanks. Don’t want to get greedy.
A 53 on the last poll before the big day would be nice though.
So guess it’s going to be a bit flat on the poling front this week? Maybe some marginal seat poling to fill the void; but like most I am very sceptical when it comes to individual seat poling. What I wouldn’t mind seeing is some whole state poling; that might give us a real guide on where the swings are and aren’t happening.