Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor (open thread)

Such changes as the latest Newspoll records maintain a pattern of rising support for One Nation and weakening personal ratings for Sussan Ley.

The latest Newspoll from The Australian records only minor changes on three weeks ago on voting intention, with Labor’s two-party lead in from 58-42 to 57-43 from primary votes of Labor 37% (up one), Coalition 28% (up one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 11% (up one). Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 47% and down two on disapproval to 48%, while Sussan Ley is down one to 31% up two to 51%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is out from 51-31 to 52-30, The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1264.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,670 thoughts on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Shogun @ #1531 Friday, October 10th, 2025 – 7:32 pm

    Hack:
    I admire Greta. She’s living her life according to her values and – seemingly – without malice for those whom she seeks to persuade. In one still very young, this is something that has to be respected.

    Nothing against Ms Thunberg personally. Her heart is in the right place. But her activism is more performative than substantive. Whatever her cause is, I doubt she is advancing it.

    And … we have a winner!

  2. Boerwar says:
    Friday, October 10, 2025 at 9:14 pm
    Nadia
    The original Greens had a higher proportion of members who actually cared a lot about biodiversity. Not so much any more, it seems.
    ======
    Yes Boer, I was just going to respond to c@t @ 9.07pm, but you’ve touched on the same thing.

    The Greens made a big mistake (IMO) last Sept with the HECS write-off.

    Today, in Brisbane one of the Greens co-founders is being dragged over the coals for alleged “anti Trans” commentary. The environment is not transexual. It’s the environment, so I’m not too sure why the Greens are bogged down with this issue atm. They need to focus on the environment and not worrying about whether men are wearing stockings/bra’s at home or women are pretending to be men etc etc.
    I’m not too sure what is going on in their party room.

    Their core is the environment. They’ve moved away from this and I think the polls are simply reflecting this.

  3. Boerwarsays:
    Friday, October 10, 2025 at 9:14 pm
    Nadia
    The original Greens had a higher proportion of members who actually cared a lot about biodiversity. Not so much any more, it seems
    _________

    And, of course, the WA Greens, emerging from the nuclear disarmament party.

  4. Dead right C@t, I think I read somewhere that the nominations for this year’s peace prize closed last February. Even if Chump stopped every war since then it wouldn’t make any difference.

    I heard a bloke on wireless today listing all the reasons Chump wouldn’t get a peace prize. It took him some time to go through the list.

  5. I’d go back to preferencing the Greens if I thought it would be productive. If they were actually interested in policy making and pushing Labor to do better, and prepared to take on responsibilities of government, whether in coalition or not. I’ve no problem with pushing for better outcomes, but they are just too into Lib-style bullshit games at the moment

  6. The privacy of the ballot box?

    I suspect Young liberals are capable of almost anything but the ballot boxes I supervised in my AEC polling official days would challenge even the most perverted.

  7. Nadia I would have thought that if the Libs can’t recruit the younger voters into these types of organisations, they would not be able to get their message to the younger groups. A lot of them would go on to careers in business, politics, media and other positions of influence, which would further diminish their ability to spread the conservative ideas throughout communities.

  8. The only people left in the Young Libs and Young Tories in the UK are the most extreme devotees to the cause who need to stay in because joining far-right parties is too low brow. Saw an interview with some young tories at their conference and one turned out to be a pro-incest nonce.

    It also shouldn’t surprise them that other young people would find their views abhorrent. Pro-racism (you have the right to be a bigot), pro-sexism (anti-choice, pro-divorce bans), anti-education, anti-lgbt, anti-environment (taking coal into parliament) and wanting to shove Christian nationalism and prosperity gospel down Australia’s throat.

  9. On a day where I’m in the mood for speaking my mind: Player One, subgeometer is right. That last comment exemplifies everything that’s wrong with you. Also, the joke about you being a woman isn’t funny.


  10. Mostly Interestedsays:
    Friday, October 10, 2025 at 9:05 pm
    Well I see news.com.au didnt sensationalize it a all

    “TRUMP SNUBBED: Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Venezuelan politician

    Despite brokering a historic peace deal in Gaza, US President Donald Trump has not been chosen for the Nobel Peace Prize.”

    You beauty. Now I want to see Trump commitment to Israel – Gaza peace deal.

  11. Ghost Of Whitlam @ #1609 Friday, October 10th, 2025 – 9:39 pm

    The only people left in the Young Libs and Young Tories in the UK are the most extreme devotees to the cause who need to stay in because joining far-right parties is too low brow. Saw an interview with some young tories at their conference and one turned out to be a pro-incest nonce.

    I picture this scene from classic Family Guy in how Young Libs are these days.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Zfs5s-VQA0


  12. subgeometersays:
    Friday, October 10, 2025 at 8:11 pm
    That’s even more nuts than giving the Peace prize to Trump. How has Maria Corina Machado advanced any of the objectives?. It’s as bad as the Archibald prize got when they were hanging the artists studio model as a significant person in Australian life

    She is better because she is not Trump.

  13. Fastwheels,
    I’ve never been to University, but I understand that “campus life” skews left.
    ie: If you’re with us you’ll be ok. If you’re one of “them”, then you’re going to struggle.

    I am assuming from the article you linked that being a “liberal or Conservative” means you are ostracised at Uni. Possibly also means that you are restricted in what sort of jobs you can get down the track. I’m assuming that most Conservative’s therefore keep their heads down during their 3 years of Uni life.

    Put it this way, if you have avowed Conservative views, you may struggle to get a job within certain industries (eg: The Victorian public Sector workforce)

    Discrimination – yes of course it is. It’s a breach of the 1986 Human Rights Commission Act
    Proving Discrimination – very difficult.

    This causes resentment.

    Whilst it might be fun to smash Liberals (or Tories) via juvenile University nonsense, it has a political backlash down the track.

    * Brexit
    * AfD
    * Tea party
    * Trump
    * Reform & Farage
    * Marine Le Pen and her political party

    Politics is always yin and yang.

  14. “Boerwar says:
    Friday, October 10, 2025 at 9:05 pm
    54?
    It’s The Narrowing!”

    _______

    Any day now the Cassandra of the blog will regain his courage to remind us all that we have passed ‘peak Albo’ (I think we are up to Mk 3.0 now) and Pasokification. He may even start quoting Cato the Elder, like one of his old avatar’s used to a few years ago, when describing the inevitable – and imminent – demise of the ALP : “Carthago delenda est”.

    Any day. … No doubt naff, OC and even Nadia will start making seal like noises when he does show up again.

  15. Ven

    She is better because she is not Trump.

    and because she sucks Repug Ass. It’s backing Trump’s mob without backing him. I can’t imagine that assuages his deep feelings of worthlessness, or his desire to get into some heaven as he feels sunset drawing in

  16. nadia88says:
    Friday, October 10, 2025 at 10:16 pm
    How’s the dog bite going Andrew?
    You OK
    _____________________
    Personally, I’m glad it appears that Earlwood hasn’t contracted Rabies, but if he did, how would you tell the difference?


  17. nadia88says:
    Friday, October 10, 2025 at 7:43 pm
    Thanks HH, Fastwheels, Leroy @ Steve777 for the poll drop.

    That PHON vote of 14% – I believe this eclipses her peak way, way, way, back in 1998.

    Nadia
    I think that number will come down when Trump drags down US to pits.

  18. “nadia88 says:
    Friday, October 10, 2025 at 10:16 pm
    How’s the dog bite going Andrew?
    You OK”

    ______

    The frothing at the mouth is barely noticeable 😉

  19. Rabies takes a while to set in. So there’s a window where you can take the vaccine and be protected. Wishing all the best for A_E, but he should be OK

    EDIT: frothing at the mouth notwithstanding. Looking forward to your next submarine excursion

  20. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Friday, October 10, 2025 at 10:20 pm
    “nadia88 says:
    Friday, October 10, 2025 at 10:16 pm
    How’s the dog bite going Andrew?
    You OK”

    ______

    The frothing at the mouth is barely noticeable
    ===============
    Glad to hear. I was getting worried.

    Good job with your swim btw.

  21. All is good so far. … and a genuine thanks to everyone for your concerns. Back in Sydney today. Had my second vaccination, a tetanus booster and also 11mg of immunoglobulin injected directly into the wounds.

    And now to bed.

  22. As long as you were treated before any symptoms set in, you’ll be fine (assuming the dog was rabid at all.)

    You made the right call. Better safe than sorry.

    Even in countries that are rabies free, you should always have any wild/feral/stray animal bite treated as soon as possible, to avoid any diseases. And that is especially true for all bats and flying foxes who can carry lyssavirus (related to rabies) which is also fatal if left untreated.

  23. nath says:
    Friday, October 10, 2025 at 10:16 pm
    Earlwood, I think Lars moved to Morrocco where he has a little spot on the beach and keeps a pack of dogs
    =============================
    I always got along OK with Lars Von Trier, or at least he left me in peace & didn’t taunt me.
    He has a supreme wit, at the same cutting level as Mavis.
    Best to keep on the right side of these sorts of posters.

    I think Lars has gone for good. He may return again as Edwina St John. He may come back as Lars.

    Probably the best way to get Lars to return would be to type his favourite post, and when you press “enter”, you really need to mean it.

    I’ll start first.

    “Lars is and always was, correct”.

    …. Earlwood, your turn.

  24. Nadia

    Undergraduate lefties are a lot of things, many of them annoying(I know I once was one), but blaming Brexit on them is a long bow to draw. I think it has more to do with the eradication of hope for personal economic advancement through the insane (unless you are heavily capitalised) economic programs of Thatcher, Reagan and their followers, that destroyed the discretionary income of working and middle class punters, who I had naively hoped would be able to employ me to create various artworks. That is what’s driving the whole politics of resentment, with its aim of even further enriching the wealthy, and F everyone else

  25. The junior partner in the Japanese government, Komeito, has left the coalition with LDP. This has left the LDP with just 196 seats out of 465 seats in the House of Representatives. So I suspect they are head for a new election very soon. And that will be a test for the new female PM.

  26. subgeometer says:
    Friday, October 10, 2025 at 7:49 pm
    If Greta Thunberg was ineffective noone would be hating on her like they do. What some dismiss as performative, other would call ‘consciousness raising’. And what non-performative options are open to her anyway? Something Israel could learn from, rather than taking pride in driving global opinion away. TPOFs eternal state won’t survive that way

    ___________________________________________

    I’m not hating on GT. I mentioned her because she was the most high profile person by far on the flotilla and her complaints about her treatment got a lot of press.

    My problem is the performative nature of the flotilla and other mass events in support of the Palestinian cause, which I think make the participants feel good about the issue but actually do not make a serious difference to the situation. For example, the SHB march probably did nothing towards the Government’s recognition of Palestine, other than for it to drop earlier hints about its intentions. The recognition of Palestine was much more about an international response/pushback to the Netanyahu government’s actions in creating more “colonies” on the West Bank in an attempt to kill the possibility of a two state solution.

    As for global opinion, if that mattered as much as people seem to think North Korea would not still be there.

  27. Ven says:
    Friday, October 10, 2025 at 10:19 pm

    nadia88 says:
    Friday, October 10, 2025 at 7:43 pm
    Thanks HH, Fastwheels, Leroy @ Steve777 for the poll drop.

    That PHON vote of 14% – I believe this eclipses her peak way, way, way, back in 1998.

    Nadia
    I think that number will come down when Trump drags down US to pits.
    ========
    Could be Ven. It’s more the headwinds coming out of Europe and the U.S. (although the recent U.S. sub-elections are showing a fairly consistent swing to the Dems of around 6-8%).

    I’m fairly confident she’s eclipsed her peak of 13% back in 1998. Kirsdarke dropped a link a month ago but I can’t find it & there is nothing on wiki re polling leading up to the 1998 Oz election.

    We should have another National poll from Resolve within 2 days, so I’ll check the PHON vote then.
    Last resolve had it at 12% (first time ahead of the Greens) . I’m guessing that will tick up another notch.

  28. Sweet Jebus in what world did Trump think he was in with a chance to win the Nobel peace prize. He has been waging war on his own citizens and who he deems his adversaries.

    Ffs

  29. “Machado supports the privatization of state-run entities in Venezuela, including oil company PDVSA.”

    It is interesting that the Norway Nobel Prize committee gave the award to someone who wants to privatise Venezuela’s oil reserves (to whom?). When Norway does very well due to the fact they kept strong state control over their own oil reserves.

    “On social media, her views are defended by the unrestrained expressions of the national right (the so-called “MAGAzuelans”). In 2012 she founded the Vente Venezuela party and tried to give it programmatic foundations: market economy, minimal state, social guarantees, privatization and business leadership, with a nationalist discourse that is deeply rooted in the country’s traditional upper classes.”
    https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-02-28/what-is-in-store-for-maria-corina-machado-the-iron-lady-of-the-venezuelan-opposition.html

  30. On Japan, of course, the new Japan PM needs to be approved by the Diet. And with those numbers now there is no guarantee that will actually happen.

  31. Asha says:
    Friday, October 10, 2025 at 11:07 pm
    TPOF:

    For those who think anti-Israel is NEVER antisemitic
    Who here has ever said that?

    _______________________________________________

    Most of the posters here who support Palestine simply don’t want to engage with the issue of actual antisemitism in Australia. Hack is an outstanding exception. The problem is that when one raises the issue of antisemitism in Australia people like you squeal that that opposing Israel is not antisemitism, but don’t actually engage with the issue in Australia. You weasel around it.

  32. How does South Park, of all things, manage to do the nuance on this topic better than most of the people who recreationally argue about it all the time on here?

  33. Dear Lars will return at some point. He will remain my most loyal offsider and adjutant.
    ————————————
    Like Piggy and Ralph?

    Or Potsie and Ralph?

  34. “It is interesting that the Norway Nobel Prize committee gave the award to someone who wants to privatise Venezuela’s oil reserves”
    I think her coup plotting and desire to murder citizens who voted against her party using CIA funded death squads is worse.

    On Greta, as long as she keeps to fashionable causes like Palestinians and wind farms she’ll have a long career as a liberal grifter. If she starts talking about socialism, class solidarity & the devastating impact religion has on the working class then the neolibs paying for her globe spanning jetset lifestyle will move on and she’ll vanish from public view like Malala Yousafzai.

  35. Team Katichsays:
    Friday, October 10, 2025 at 11:40 pm
    Dear Lars will return at some point. He will remain my most loyal offsider and adjutant.
    ————————————
    Like Piggy and Ralph?

    Or Potsie and Ralph?
    —————————-

    I’ll go with Saruman and Wormtongue.

  36. I think her coup plotting and desire to murder citizens who voted against her party using CIA funded death squads is worse.

    Christ, imagine being stupid enough to believe one word of this bullshit.

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