Federal polls: Essential Research and YouGov (open thread)

Two new pollsters have just provided their first federal voting intention numbers since the election, one being Essential Research, which has Labor on 35%, the Coalition on 27% and the Greens on 11%, and goes further than any other pollster yet in having One Nation at 13% – together with an undecided component of 6%, so the numbers for each should be considered slightly higher in practice. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor leading the Coalition 51% to 44%, with the balance undecided. Leadership ratings have Anthony Albanese falling back to where he was pre-election, down five on approval over the past month to 44% and up three on disapproval to 46%, while Sussan Ley is down three on approval to 32% and up four on disapproval to 41%.

The poll also finds a four-point drop since last month in the view that the country is headed in the right direction to 34%, with wrong direction up three to 50%; 53% rating the immigration rate too high, 40% about right and 7% too low; 17% believing Australia should be more like the United States and 58% less; 39% rating the government’s 2035 emissions target too ambitious, 13% not ambitious enough and 48% about right; 34% supportive of Australia’s recognition of Palestine with 30% opposed (both unchanged on a month ago); and negative attitudes across the board to Donald Trump. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1001.

Amir Daftari of YouGov relates via X that the voting intention result from the pollster’s weekly omnibus survey had Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 27%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 12%, with Labor leading 56-44 on two-party preferred and Anthony Albanese leading Sussan Ley by 50% to 28% on preferred prime minister. Breakdowns by vote at the May election support the contention that the One Nation surge is coming largely at the expense of the Coalition. The poll was conducted Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of 1329.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe