The latest Newspoll from The Australian records only minor changes on three weeks ago on voting intention, with Labor’s two-party lead in from 58-42 to 57-43 from primary votes of Labor 37% (up one), Coalition 28% (up one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 11% (up one). Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 47% and down two on disapproval to 48%, while Sussan Ley is down one to 31% up two to 51%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is out from 51-31 to 52-30, The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1264.
Albo continues to roll on and get on with the job of governance while his opponents are fighting each other. MOE changes on 2PP and Ley is the LOTO in name only. The only question is when does Hastie strike, and does Angus have a strategy for an outside run to cut him off at the pass.
Scott – why do you say the real Lib vote is 17-18%? Where do you get this from. THe newspoll is saying 28%
Look’s like more trouble for the Libs with Sarah Henderson, a Senator, now joining the public shitfight, via the AFR. She’s also publicly canning Susan Ley.
I agree with Kirsdarke, in that her leadership will be over by the end of the year.
Does anyone here, Labor or Liberal, seriously believe this backgorunding can continue into 2026????
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-slams-dysfunctional-opposition-as-coalition-rifts-widen-20251005-p5n063
Also does anyone know if there are other polls tonight?
Click to Edit –
Scott
It’s not a disaster poll when they should be rebuilding, that will take time. The Liberal Party still haven’t even finish their election review, there shouldn’t be any real improvement until next year, if the Liberal Party is still polling in the 20% in 12 months that would be a disaster for them
Up one, down one, another poll that shows people aren’t really engaged less than 6 months since the last election
Sorry, are you seriously saying the Liberal vote will be around 12% by years end.
Can u explain your reasoning please, or am i missing something with your posts.
Thel C: The 28% includes the Queensland Liberal National Party and if that is excluded (i.e. most of them are nationals and not liberals) then the Liberals are closer to 20%.
So it does seem true that One Nation’s primary vote is in the double digits now.
And with this poll taken before Andrew Hastie quit the frontbench, that’s more likely than not to accelerate from here.
The federal lib/nats combined primary vote is 28%
The federal liberal party primary vote is 17/18%
The greens primary vote 12%
The final news poll for the year , next month or in December
could show
Federal Lib/nat combined primary vote 25%
which
The federal liberal party primary vote about 14% could be on level terms with the greens,
Thel C says:
Sunday, October 5, 2025 at 7:12 pm
Sorry, are you seriously saying the Liberal vote will be around 12% by years end.
Can u explain your reasoning please, or am i missing something with your posts.
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Fixed my post up , if the leadership speculation is growing the federal liberal party primary vote , could go lower , if not on equal but close to the greens primary vote
It is a bad poll for Ley, but it is not a dire poll. It could actually be worse. Remember Nelson scored 9% in the preferred PM category.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2008-05-05/nelsons-approval-rating-drops-poll/2426352
2008 was a crazy time.
Thel C says:
Sunday, October 5, 2025 at 7:09 pm
Scott – why do you say the real Lib vote is 17-18%? Where do you get this from. THe newspoll is saying 28%
———————–
The opinion polls add the lib/nats together
But the AEC
Counts
Liberal party
Liberal National party
Country liberal party
National Party
as official seperate political parties on election day
2025 federal election result
the liberal party primary vote was 20.69%
Polling in Ireland – little change 10 months after the election.
Fine Gael 21
Sinn Féin 21
Fianna Fáil 20
Soc Dem 8
Labour 4
Aontú 6
Greens 1
People before profits 3
Independents 15
The only real change is a rise for Aontú from 2 to 6 – this is basically a 1 man party. Paedar Tóibin was expelled from Sinn Féin when he crossed the floor against their pro-abortion amendments.
In Albo We Trust.
Meanwhile, the latest UK Opinium Poll, taken from 1-3 October.
Reform: 34% (+2)
Labour: 21% (-1)
Conservative: 16% (-1)
Lib Dems: 12% (-2)
Green: 10% (+3)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)
Others: 4% (=)
Preferred PM:
Starmer: 26% (-1), Farage: 31% (+2)
Starmer: 23% (-1), Badenoch: 14% (=)
Approval:
Starmer (LAB): 19% Approve (-1), 63% Disapprove (+2) (Net -44)
Badenoch (CON): 18% Approve (-1), 40% Disapprove (-1) (Net -22)
Farage (RFM): 35% Approve (+2), 43% Disapprove (+2) (Net -8)
Davey (LD): 21% Approve (-6), 25% Disapprove (+1) (Net -4)
Polanski (GRN): 18% Approve (+1), 19% Disapprove (-1) (Net -1)
Go the Broncos! The closest thing to South Sydney, with Adam Reynolds, that I’ve got tonight.
The way things are going, unless the Liberals are led by a reactionary white male, then it’s hard to see it stopping any time soon.
Unfortunately it looks like the populist right did well in the Czech elections over the weekend, with Andrej Babiš most likely to form government.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Czech_parliamentary_election
It does look like Czechia is going to join the Ukraine Ratfucking coalition along with Hungary and Slovakia as a result.
Scottsays:
Sunday, October 5, 2025 at 7:15 pm
Thel C says:
Sunday, October 5, 2025 at 7:12 pm
Sorry, are you seriously saying the Liberal vote will be around 12% by years end.
Can u explain your reasoning please, or am i missing something with your posts.
———————————–
Fixed my post up , if the leadership speculation is growing the federal liberal party primary vote , could go lower , if not on equal but close to the greens primary vote
*****************
Ok I’ve just seen your amended post at 7.13 pm.
Whoops from me – I get confused when some of you decide to disect the LNP vote into Lib & Nat, and subtract the QLD LNP vote from the equation.
I thought you meant today’s 28% was going to = 12% by years end.
Hastie was premature. The killing season traditionally is the last two sitting weeks. It should be on in November.
Confesions – Absolutely, it will last into 2026…. But I am guessing it will come to ahead in March or April.
The Right doesn’t quite have the numbers yet, so they will just keep white-anting because Ley doesn’t have the strength to stop it. And eventually, enough MPs will get feed up with the chaos and the change happens.
I don’t understand why Hastie has jumped the gun when Ley has so far yet to fall. Is it inexperience? The flattery from Sky After Dark? A bent towards impatience?
Confessions
It could be Hastie might be trying to drag out Angus Taylor to become the leader
Orders from Gina.
For the sake of family back in Brisbane I will also say go Broncos. Though I think it will be close.
On the polls, I’ll take 57/43 🙂
Considering that most of this was gathered in the aftermath of the delayed New Guinea treaty, there is no sign of any negative reaction here.
Albo going to New York and getting ignored by Trump might have been good for Albo.
I look forward to the next poll after the Liberals leadership squabbles.
The last scheduled Parliament sitting day this year is Thursday November 27. There might be a last minute kerfuffle over blocked legislation, so maybe it gets extended by a day, but probably not more.
https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/resource/download/post-election-calendar-2025_2.pdf
So Sussan Ley’s leadership will likely end around Monday November 24.
Angus Taylor: All tip and no iceberg.
Looking ahead, the next significant elections worldwide this month will be the Irish presidential election on 24 October, the Argentinian legislative election on the 26th, and the Dutch election on the 29th.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Irish_presidential_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Argentine_legislative_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Dutch_general_election
Kevin Bonham: Most Newspolls at 56 2PP or better in a row (includes derived estimates)
10 Labor (Rudd) Jan-Jun 08
6 Coalition (Howard) Mar-May 96
5 Labor (Rudd) Feb-Apr 09
4 Coalition (Howard) Oct-Nov 96
4 Labor (Rudd) July – Sep 08
4 LABOR (Albanese) JULY-OCT 25
The Liberals they stuff everything they touch.
Didn’t this happen the last time they were in government?
The margin on error on this poll is 2.8% (round to 3%) for 2PP and major party vote, about 2% for Green and One Nation vote.
Steve777 wow they’re working that one nation surge (within moe) angle pretty hard. Ham it up guys.
Socratessays:
Considering that most of this was gathered in the aftermath of the delayed New Guinea treaty, there is no sign of any negative reaction here.
_________________________
I haven’t heard any negative commentary about Australia having 10,000 foreign nationals under arms in Australia so it appears I’m alone in thinking this is the most bizarre and utterly stupid idea.
One Nation’s rise in support is concerning, of course but, right now, it seems to be at the expense of Coalition support, probably as a protest vote against an unpopular leader, similar to the surge in Green support when Gillard took over. When the Coalition get their shit together, get behind a stronger leader and, most importantly, when the Albanese Government has some visible vulnerability again, some might migrate back to the Coalition.
But, like with the Greens on the left, some of the more ideologically motivated voters in this cohort might decide to permanently park their vote in One Nation, regardless of what the Coalition’s policies are going forward, as they might take some comfort in being able to offer a hard right protest in their primary but still preference the Coalition down ballot. I mused on the possibility that in future closer elections, we might see Senate results that are 2 Labor, 2 Coalition, 1 Green and 1 One Nation become more normal.
And it should be pointed out that “surge to One Nation” = still less than the Greens, who we are told on a daily basis are an irrelevant fringe.
Will be an interesting week for the financial markets ahead – with the US shutdown all gov data publications are on pause.
https://www.bls.gov/bls/2025_october_shutdown.htm
https://www.bea.gov/
https://www.census.gov/
US Non-farm payrolls data was cancelled laat Friday, and job openings and international trade were to be this week.
For those that can stand it, highlights from today’s Bathsalt Addicts Hour from the SAD crew about the Liberal leadership.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKCxvfStu4E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0w5PTqSiPy4
Yeah, they’re out for blood.
Scott @ #22 Sunday, October 5th, 2025 – 7:40 pm
Very messy if so. Burning two leaders into the bargain? That seems a whole level of ineptitude that I didn’t think even the Liberals were capable of.
A post from a Hastie supporter appeared in my Facebook feed today, probably a paid ad.
Pleading with Hastie to save us from the “communist” Albanese.
Delusional isn’t a strong enough word.
If the lunar right think Albanese is a communist they really need to go and read some history books.
Just in case anyone has forgotten ……. Newspoll is the one our overlords listen to.
57;43 suggests Ley might be in a spot of bother.
Nath
As I said at the time, there is plenty of historical precedent for the NG treaty.
Diogenes, it beggars belief that there has not been a single charge for Robodebt afaik.
Any wonder politicians are held in such low esteem when they can hide behind the F%#king Minchin Protocol when they get caught with their metaphorical fingers in the till but woe betide any of the regular punters who look sideways at social security the wrong way.
Not to mention the corporate welfare doled out to companies that weren’t even entitled to it during covid. And no clawback mechanism.
Anyway I’ve sold my place. All happened very quickly and I’ve stuffed my back cleaning up and keeping it clean.
If anyone can suggest something other than huge quantities of alcohol to help me sleep tonight I’d appreciate it. Painkillers aren’t making much of an impact and apparently you shouldn’t lie down or sit down for long periods of time.
Confessions says:
Sunday, October 5, 2025 at 8:04 pm
Scott @ #22 Sunday, October 5th, 2025 – 7:40 pm
Confessions
It could be Hastie might be trying to drag out Angus Taylor to become the leader
————————————————————-
Very messy if so. Burning two leaders into the bargain? That seems a whole level of ineptitude that I didn’t think even the Liberals were capable of.
———————————————-
The federal Liberal party replaced Abbott before 2 years as prime minister, replaced Turnbull about 2.5 years, after Dutton challenged and Morrison was picked instead of Dutton
With foreign owned newsltd and newsltd hacks controlling the federal liberal party , incompetence looks like it has settled in for the federal liberal party
Seems to me the loud Sky after dark faction have shifted to PHON, but Ley still holds the large traditional Lib vote.
Hastie and Taylor are forging ahead with a ‘divide and conquer’ strategy, which will be promoted by the MSM.
Albo has got it easy with this going on. Andrews, McGowan and Malinauskis were and still are great beneficiaries of a similar internal battle for control.
The idea of recruiting Pacific Islanders into our armed forces has been around for a while. It has generally included a path to Australian citizenship, although I haven’t seen that mentioned in the context of the Pukpuk Treaty.
I don’t have a problem with it. The armed forces are having problems recruiting as it is. That would be exacerbated if we need to increase numbers in coming years, as seems likely. The military seems to be another job not many Australians want to do.
PNG and other Pacific nations are friends. The can’t threaten us in any significant way, except possibly by assisting a major potentially hostile power (who shall remain nameless). Anything that threatens the Pacific threatens us and vice versa. Finally, we now know that we can no longer rely on a certain big and powerful friend (also nameless).
Hastie’s content with comments.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9ijCvlCF7k
Sadly I think this poll confirms Australian politics as approximately 37% pro-wind farms vs 63% anti-wind farms.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-05/greens-leader-larissa-waters-unsure-about-tasmanian-wind-farm/105853456
Aqualung
Diogenes, it beggars belief that there has not been a single charge for Robodebt afaik.
_______________________________________________
If you are talking criminal charges, there actually need to be criminal offences on the statute book to charge people with. Certain people may have already justly been convicted in the court of public opinion, but that is quite different to actual criminal charges.
Sussan Ley faces emboldened conservative backbench after Hastie’s resignation, Liberal MPs warn
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/oct/05/sussan-ley-faces-emboldened-conservative-backbench-after-hasties-resignation-liberal-mps-warn?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Sussan will do well to survive this.
Bizzcan,
I watched that part of Insiders. Ms Waters was either:
a) distancing herself from her colleagues who have objected to the Robbins Island Wind Farm, or
b) not prepared for the question/not aware of the details.
In any case, it may not go ahead. The conditions are yet to be finalised – they may not be permitted to operate year round. Even if ACEN can do whatever they want I doubt that it makes financial sense.
Socratessays:
Sunday, October 5, 2025 at 8:05 pm
Nath
As I said at the time, there is plenty of historical precedent for the NG treaty.
_________________________________
I’ve got no problem with the treaty in general, or the integration of the armed forces, but this concept of having a large contingent of foreign nationals in our army is unprecedented.
The historical precedents you talk about were the British Empire employing subject races to do their dirty work. There is a whiff of that old Imperialism about this too.