The Financial Review has a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll giving Labor a lead of 54-46, out from 53.5-46.5 at the last such poll a month ago, from primary votes of Labor 34% (down one), Coalition 29% (down one), Greens 11% (steady), and a surging One Nation on 14% (up three). The accompanying report reveals One Nation is at 13% among millennials, 15% among Gen-X and 17% among baby boomers – I hope to have more to offer in the way of demographic breakdowns later today.
The poll also finds an 37% for and against the notion that the Coalition should drop its support for net zero; 35% holding that the Albanese government has the right priorities, with 47% disagreeing; and 16% holding that Sussan Ley’s Coalition is ready for government, with 55% disagreeing. It was conducted September 25 to October 7 from a sample of 1997.
UPDATE: Full results here – unfortunately not including any state breakdowns on this occasion, but together with the One Nation age breakdowns cited above, we learn that its support among the youngest cohort (“Gen-Z”, presumably meaning 18-34) is well below the others at 6%.
Tony Abbott to lead the Liberals? Yes, please!! 😆
137.
Katich I just want you to know that you helped me to redefine, refine and expand what a wanker could be . :p
There’s nowhere for the Russians to hide their energy and transport infrastructure:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/12/ukraine-war-briefing-latest-refinery-strike-shows-no-safe-places-in-russias-deep-rear
Landlord of the Year says:
Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 1:45 pm
The idea of getting Abbott back is typical insider bubble talk, Abbott wouldn’t win any of the teal seats, after all he was the first to lose his seat to one. The Liberals might not want to admit it has to go back to being more feminine and less blokey.
________________________________________________
They have to get back to what the voters in their historic heartlands want – progressive, economically liberal policies like the commercial reality of adjusting to climate change energy demands. Going back to the guy who led the departure from sane, good government into niche culture wars is just what they don’t need if they want to remain relevant.
Meanwhile Labor delivers for the unions and for the workers, while not demonising the business and mining sectors.
Labor offers more to the traditional urban Liberal voter than the Liberal Party does now.
Kos always puts a left bias to his analysis, when I look at his numbers, I am not seeing becoming more left wing but that the next Liberal Party PM won’t be to the Liberal right but will be a younger woman, she could be moderate or conservative, but she won’t be like Jacinta Price and Pauline Hanson.
Many people call themselves left wing or right wing, only when you look at their background and values, they are not what political scientist would call left wing or right wing.
Trump should at least listen to his own voters:
“Over 75% of Americans support additional sanctions on Russia, poll finds”
https://kyivindependent.com/over-75-of-americans-support-additional-sanctions-on-russia-poll-finds/
People moving Greens to Labor aren’t becoming “more conservative”, they’re moving to vote for a party of government who are actually doing progressive things unlike the nimby, blocker Greens Political Party.
@Ghost Of Whitlam
I think a factor is also that some have families, and so they have new priorities in life. And the environment, asylum seekers, and international conflicts that were a priority when they were younger. It gets replaced with bread and butter issues, such as job security, healthcare, education, and the economy. If that is your priority, voting for a protest party isn’t really where you’re going to be drawn to.
TPOF
that is clear to everyone but the Liberal Party’s right and the RWNJ. The Liberal Party has to stop seeing the mainstream as labor-lite.
TPOFsays:
Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 10:13 am
At least the Nazis actually did surrender:
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Admiral Karl Dönitz became an honorary member of the Nazi party in 1944. He was more a fill though after the rest had suicided or fled. Though I thought the Israel/Gaza deal was suppose to be a peace deal and not a full unconditional surrender?
Dönitz time as Führer is often underestimated
https://youtu.be/BYz1ADttI1g?si=S3gLmfiY9C_ZT2z1
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 2:37 pm
Dönitz time as Führer is often underestimated
https://youtu.be/BYz1ADttI1g?si=S3gLmfiY9C_ZT2z1
===========================================
Fair enough, not just a patsy but one with ambitions.
Donitz didn’t find out enigma had been cracked until the 70s. He had refused to believe it during the war despite losing 700 submarines.
Political Nightwatchmansays:
Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 2:00 pm
People moving Greens to Labor aren’t becoming “more conservative”, they’re moving to vote for a party of government who are actually doing progressive things unlike the nimby, blocker Greens Political Party.
@Ghost Of Whitlam
I think a factor is also that some have families, and so they have new priorities in life. And the environment, asylum seekers, and international conflicts that were a priority when they were younger. It gets replaced with bread and butter issues, such as job security, healthcare, education, and the economy. If that is your priority, voting for a protest party isn’t really where you’re going to be drawn to.
_____________________
And the not insignificant issue of fiscal sustainability…
Trumps wife is in constant contact with Putin recently and now trying to find a way to end the war.
If she breaks through it will be interesting if Trumps ego takes the credit, me thinks she has him by the ballsies behind closed doors.
pied pipersays:
Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 2:55 pm
Trumps wife is in constant contact with Putin recently and now trying to find a way to end the war.
If she breaks through it will be interesting if Trumps ego takes the credit, me thinks she has him by the ballsies behind closed doors.
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This is a bit of a departure from your normal hero worshiping post of Trump as the strong alpha male.
FitzSimons interviews Abbott, perhaps signalling that something’s afoot, such as returning to politics. I don’t think the voters in Warringah will want him back, and who else in their right mind would make way for him? Perhaps he’s eyeing of Senate seat, and from there to do a Gorton. He’s also appearing on SAD (Monday thru Wednesday) to promote his book. Here’s one Q&A.
[‘Fitz: And yet, speaking of celebrating democracy, you and I are talking at a terrifying time. Will you join me in saying Donald Trump is a danger to world democracy?
TA: [Pause.] Well, I don’t really want to get too much into Trump in a discussion of my book about Australia. I mean, Trump is like the proverbial curate’s egg – he’s good in parts. I thought there was more good than bad in his speech at the UN last week.
Fitz: I thought it was appalling from first to last, but you and I have had opposing views on most things for 40 years. Nevertheless, I was happy to provide a partial endorsement for your book, saying myself for your cover, “It was not quite the white armband version of Australian history I was expecting in the first half, nor the Liberals’ highlight package in the second half.” I note you didn’t resile from things like the absolute horror of the Myall Creek massacre and the poisoning of flour and water holes by settlers. As you researched, were you shocked by just how horrific a lot of it was?’]
https://www.smh.com.au/national/tony-abbott-on-turnbull-keating-costello-morrison-and-the-misogyny-speech-20251009-p5n1by.html
pied pipersays:
Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 2:55 pm
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It would be ironic if Melania runs the Trump household. As someone with her background running a Government Department would probably be accused of being a DEI hire.
Melania IS a genius after all. 😉
Trump has no interest solving the world’s problems. He just wants the stage, by Cory Alpert.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/the-world-looks-to-trump-for-peace-instead-we-get-volatility-and-grift-20251012-p5n1tu.html
Kos always puts a left bias to his analysis
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No where near as bad as the Democrat version of the Comical Ali, Simon Rosenberg, who seemed to find endless optimism for Biden in polls saying the exact opposite.
Let’s hope the Reactionaries try to restore Abbott. What a hoot. He would certainly fail yet again, and in choosing him the Reactionaries would exemplify their complete irrelevance to contemporary Australia.
It’s not necessarily one or the other. It can be both.
Bystander @ #523 Sunday, October 12th, 2025 – 3:37 pm
I suppose we’ll have to wait and see. Will he continue to be interested in a final peace in the I/P conflict (without the outcome of one side genociding the other) or will he just throw the toys out of the cot that he didn’t win the peace prize and be like “I don’t give a damn about them, they can fight forever as much as I care.”
I’m thinking it’ll be the latter.
Probably. I can’t see him standing in a Teal seat.
@Landlord
“Uni is more about exams than a real test of intelligence. Take law, it’s open book but other degree units run closed book exams.”
I have always found it ironic that the main subjects which dont do this are the humanities, and they are the one’s always on the chopping block.
pied piper says:
Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 2:55 pm
Trumps wife is in constant contact with Putin recently and now trying to find a way to end the war.
The war will be ended my military means when Russia is defeated. They cannot succeed in Ukraine. They have already clearly failed. The Russian position – strategically, diplomatically, economically – is far worse now than prior to their invasion.
While Russia cannot prevail in Ukraine the reverse does not apply. Ukraine can denude Russia’s military capacities almost unimpeded and with almost no losses on their side. They have commenced the systematic debilitation of the Russian machine, from its economic/industrial foundations up.
Russia cannot denude Ukraine’s rear, which lies outside Ukraine in the territories of Central and Western Europe. Russia cannot intrude there without endangering itself existentially.
This war is the first to be fought with unmanned craft and with AI. It’s also now being waged without US technical and political oversight. This has freed Ukraine both strategically and tactically. Counter-intuitively perhaps, by withholding US support from Ukraine Trump has ensured that Putin will lose. These facts will not be lost on the Europeans, who will be glad to see the US retrench itself from Europe for good.
Meantime, what will China do? Will Xi throw Putin under a Ukrainian tank….perhaps under a Russian tank that’s been captured and re-purposed by Ukraine?
Let’s hope so. Let’s hope the war criminal, Putin, faces justice.
The Russo-Ukraine war must be won by Ukraine both for their own sake and for the sake of peace and sovereignty in Europe more widely. Russian success in Ukraine would embolden Putin…encourage him to attempt to restore the subjugation of the Baltic, the Black Sea and the other countries of Central Europe.
Hopefully Xi will come to see that China’s best interests coincide with Europe’s. On that note, of course US retrenchment from Europe would also advantage China. The US has already obviously concluded it will not fight China in the Pacific or North Asia. It’s making no preparations for that and clearly has no plans to do so. A world from which the US has retreated and in which Russia has been subdued is very likely to be a much more peaceful one. This would be to close the book on the Imperialist wars of the last 500 years.
In another twist, precisely because it does not possess nuclear weapons Ukraine is free to attack Russia wherever it likes. Ukraine has exactly nothing to lose and everything to gain by taking the war into Russia itself. This strategic freedom creates the conditions for a Ukrainian victory. Russia – isolated, depleted, bankrupted – will eventually concede. Hopefully Putin will be surrendered for trial for his crimes.
China will be pleased. It’s historic rival in the Eurasian landmass will be reduced to impotence by a campaign of national resistance launched from the shores of the Black Sea…a very long way from Beijing.
This will also be a blow to MAGA prestige. An unofficial Trump protectorate, Russia, will have been humiliated. Good. I hope Australia does everything it can to help Zelenskyy.
Falcon feeding: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oibsohQ14cY
Latest Resolve national Poll:
* ALP 34% (down 1)
* LNP 28% (up 1)
* GRN 11% (even)
* PHON 12% (even)
* Others/Indies 15% (even)
No 2PP. Will leave WB or others to calc.
PPM – ALBO 40% (up 2). LEY 23% (down 3). This is a new low for her. She’s heading into Brendan Nelson territory me thinks
Link: https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
If you scroll down that page, it will give you the Federal Primaries for each of NSW, VIC & QLD.
With the PHON vote, it’s down 2 in NSW to 14%, up 1 in VIC to 10% & up 1 in QLD to 13%.
Nothing really major with these changes, and it hasn’t impacted the overall national vote.
The 3 big states have the ALP leading on Primaries, with QLD in particular having the following;
* ALP 35% (down 2)
* LNP 23% (down 4) That’s a very low LNP primary coming out of QLD. Haven’t seen QLD in the low 20’s for quite some time. Must be a bit of “Albo fever” going on here, or possibly Chrisafulli is wearing out his honeymoon period.
With the “rest of Australia” tab, the LNP has just taken the lead.
It’s showing a massive correction on their poll from 4 weeks ago.
I’m guessing this may be a small sample. I’ll wait till someone can dig up the sample size. The accompanying journo’s article should drop around 6.15pm PB time.
Often resolve doesn’t provide their state sample size breakdowns.
So Rest of Oz…
* ALP 30% (down 9)
* LNP 31% (up 9)
* GRN 10% (down 2)
* PHON 11% (even)
* Others/Indies 18% (up 2)
The federal Liberal party primary vote is stuck at 16/17% in the opinion polling ,5+ months since the 2025 federal election
Overall, Labor holds a commanding and unchanged 10 percentage point lead in the two-party preferred vote at 55-45, based on the stated preferences of people surveyed, which is the same margin as the national vote in the May 3 election when Anthony Albanese won a landslide victory, but a drop from the stratospheric 59-41 post-victory glow recorded for the government in August. Labor’s primary vote fell from 35 per cent to 34 per cent over the past month – a movement within the margin of error but the second month in a row the government lost ground – while the Coalition’s vote rose by one percentage point from 27 to 28 per cent this month after falling by two points last month.
On immigration, respondents to the survey were told that Australia’s current net migration is 316,000 people and the permanent intake is 185,000 people per year and that the Coalition wanted to cut it. They were then asked whether they “support or oppose a significant reduction in Australia’s immigration numbers?” Most voters from across the political spectrum supported a cut, including 57 per cent of Labor voters, 65 per cent of Coalition voters, 50 per cent of people who voted independent and 77 per cent of One Nation voters. Even a slim majority of Greens voters (35 per cent support, 32 per cent oppose and 33 per cent undecided) wanted immigration cut, while every age cohort backed a cut, too.
Re Nadia above – Latest Resolve national Poll:
ALP 2PP ≈
34 + 0 + 9 + 3 + 8 —> 54%.
nadia88 says:
Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 6:03 pm
With the “rest of Australia” tab, the LNP has just taken the lead.
It’s showing a massive correction on their poll from 4 weeks ago.
I’m guessing this may be a small sample. I’ll wait till someone can dig up the sample size. The accompanying journo’s article should drop around 6.15pm PB time.
Often resolve doesn’t provide their state sample size breakdowns.
So Rest of Oz…
* ALP 30% (down 9)
* LNP 31% (up 9)
* GRN 10% (down 2)
* PHON 11% (even)
* Others/Indies 18% (up 2)
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That resolve poll for rest
goes In the bin , like its Labor on 25% primary vote , month or so before the 2025 federal election went into the bin
And if you were actually asked to vote for a party today all the protest vote noise in the poll would evaporate.
Interesting numbers:
Overall, 25 per cent of voters said the Coalition should be more right-wing, 32 per cent said the Coalition should move to the political centre ground – which the moderate Ley is attempting to do – 11 per cent said they wanted no change and 32 per cent said they were unsure.
Among Coalition voters, 32 per cent wanted them to be more conservative and 33 per cent wanted them to move to the centre ground, with 23 per cent unsure and 12 per cent wanting no change.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ley-s-approval-ratings-tank-after-month-of-liberal-chaos-and-disunity-20251011-p5n1sh.html
Assuming that the “rest of Australia” is everywhere than isn’t Qld, NSW/ACT or Vic, that would be about a quarter of the sample, so about 250-500 responders, depending upon the size of the full sample. The margin of error would be about 5-7%.
So a 9% shift in the vote from ALP to the Coalition would be significant, if one believes it. However, had there been such a massive movement in support, we would have had some inkling about it. There’s been nothing that I can think of that would have turned large numbers of votes West of Broken Hill in such a short time. I don’t buy it.
I don’t buy it.
So a 9% shift in the vote from ALP to the Coalition would be significant, if one believes it. However, had there been such a massive movement in support, we would have had some inkling about it.
Especially if it hasn’t been reflected elsewhere where we do have state breakdowns.
AusPoll@AusPoll6 : How Australians describe themselves politically.
RedBridge | 25 Sep-7 Oct | n=1997
Socialist: 3%
Left-wing: 5%
Progressive: 8%
Centre-left: 9%
Moderate: 19%
Centre-right: 8%
Conservative: 13%
Right-wing: 6%
Libertarian: 2%
⚪️ None of these: 27%
It’s a huge swing mind you WA and SA housing and rental markets are mega tough to buy and rent now and immigration numbers have been all over the news during this period.
Next poll from this mob will be interesting if it holds as is.Hastie was onto the right subject me thinks he’s been in the news as well about his views on the above.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 6:38 pm
So a 9% shift in the vote from ALP to the Coalition would be significant, if one believes it. However, had there been such a massive movement in support, we would have had some inkling about it.
Especially if it hasn’t been reflected elsewhere where we do have state breakdowns.
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Look like resolve didn’t learn anything from
disaster before the 2025 federal election , when the opinion poll companies kept on assuming with no political or real time voting evidence there were swings against Labor going to the liberal party
despite the real time federal by-elections voting was showing no swing against Labor but swings to them , but there were swings against the liberal party
New thread.
Abbott? Lazarus with a quadruple bypass.
https://newpolitics.substack.com/p/the-paralysis-in-australias-communications
I’ve only ever been a Labor supporter, I’d stop if there was a realistic alternative that wasn’t on the take from Developer & Gambling industry
SMH
From leader to lobbyist: How Morris Iemma opens doors for Sydney property developers
Michael McGowanOctober 18, 2025 — 5.00am
Former Labor premier turned lobbyist Morris Iemma had a “regular catch-up” scheduled with a senior adviser to Chris Minns, who he petitioned over a stalled housing development in Menangle which later received provisional go-ahead from the NSW Planning Department.
A trove of documents obtained by The Sydney Morning Herald also reveals Minns did not disclose a meeting with Iemma that occurred just a week before the former premier sought to lobby his office over two major housing developments.
There has long been a “housing crisis ” in Australia it will never be solved by labor or the LNP.. never.
It requires good town planning.. it requires the approach adopted by Sydney City Council.. get good town planning advise from Scandinavia.. people not Developer focused