The latest Newspoll from The Australian records only minor changes on three weeks ago on voting intention, with Labor’s two-party lead in from 58-42 to 57-43 from primary votes of Labor 37% (up one), Coalition 28% (up one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 11% (up one). Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 47% and down two on disapproval to 48%, while Sussan Ley is down one to 31% up two to 51%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is out from 51-31 to 52-30, The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1264.
Also, big shout out to William Bowe for allowing dissenting voices on the blog. I for one think it’s great that he says his piece and doesn’t instaban people who disagree. Good show.
Omar you are a real kiss-arse. It’s nauseating.
Newy Boy
For what it’s worth I don’t like the idea of a poster who thinks their role is to take the piss and wind other posters up about things they care about when they don’t give a shit about the issue. Some people call them gadflies and contrarians. I have other names.
zombie nath I don’t need William Bowe’s help to fight wild dogs
(did I get that right?)
let’s see if that cringefest is still up
Here it is
weak as piss
The cases collated by Operation Shelter do include antisemitic incidents – such as alleged threatening behaviour, offensive graffiti and Nazi salutes – and several examples of students at Jewish schools or businesses being targeted by antisemitic conduct. Police have said 232 people have been charged as a result of the taskforce.
However, dozens of incidents captured by Shelter were not antisemitic. They include pro-Palestinian protest activity or graffiti, alleged attacks against people aligned to Palestinian protests, or in some cases incidents entirely unrelated to the conflict in the Middle East.’
______________________________________
232 people charged versus “dozens of incidents” that were not antisemitic. I’ll leave that there.
TPOF, I agree 100%. Contrarianism is a large part of what has led to the rise of the populist and anti-intellectual Right, and the concomitant decline of the liberal and technocratic centre, in so many places across the West, in my view.
Omar, yep thats my mo if I’m pissed off.
Terminator he’s been paying out like an atm for days, I don’t know if I’ve ever seen such total psychological disintegration.
I thought this was a good summary of the situation.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/09/how-the-gaza-ceasefire-deal-was-done-donald-trump
I think most Israelis and Palestinians want the killing and kidnapping to stop now.
Omar Comin’, Friday, October 10, 2025 at 6:39 pm:
———————–
That’s a bit of un-self-aware irony from our mate.
😆
yeah it’s quite a picture eh newy boy, sums up this whole saga rather nicely I’d say
his wild dog fighting days are over now btw
…true and not forgetting the genocidal intent, the ethnic cleansing, the serial land grabs, the torture in custody… so many things that some or many people want to stop…
TPOF @ #1503 Friday, October 10th, 2025 – 6:39 pm
TPOF it’s worth a lot. Good on you.
Alicia Payne, MP, has given birth.
Did Pocock resign from the Sports Club as a matter of principle?
There’s a growing divide in our household.
It turns out my 3yo daughter is forming into a staunch monarchist. Nothing can take place in our home until the coronation.
Everyday, it’s coronation this, coronation that. When asked her position on an Australian republic, her response is that she has to get to Arendelle for Queen Elsa’s coronation.
I blame the parents of course.
Boerwar, Friday, October 10, 2025 at 7:05 pm:
No. They banned him, for expressing his principles:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/oct/10/former-wallabies-david-pocock-banned-parliamentary-sports-club-gambling
“The Ukraine” was a common way of referring to the country during Soviet times. Ukraine does not use that designation and urges Western media not to use it. The name of the country is simply “Ukraine”, with no longer form.
TPOF says:
Friday, October 10, 2025 at 6:50 pm
I thought this was a good summary of the situation.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/09/how-the-gaza-ceasefire-deal-was-done-donald-trump
I think most Israelis and Palestinians want the killing and kidnapping to stop now.
I think the increasing and very widespread diplomatic isolation of Israel played a significant part in their willingness to accept a peace proposal. From the viewpoint of the Palestinian cause, if this war results in the creation of a State then the losses will seem less pointless.
For Jews everywhere, the killing cannot end soon enough. Perhaps against all odds a peaceful and secure life is possible for everyone in Israel and Palestine. I certainly hope so.
There are many further matters to be resolved. None of them can be addressed without peace.
Sounds very cute MI.
Bystander,
I guess the Jewish people are a subset of the Arab people, the Sephardis who have always been there, or maybe vice versa, if you prefer
Steve777, Friday, October 10, 2025 at 7:09 pm:
Correct. Since 1991, it has been known as ‘Ukraine’. This is how it is officially known in the UN. Ukrainians themselves refer to it as ‘Ukraine’. The Russians persist in calling it ‘The Ukraine’, though, in an attempt to reframe its identity back towards its former Soviet status of subservience to Moscow.
newy boy I’m reminded of this for some reason
There we go, a proper wojak. That’s an improvement over second rate Seinfeld memes imo.
The name “Ukraine” was initially derived from an old term meaning “frontier” or “borderlands”, and that’s how Russia still sees it – their Southern border land. No wonder they like to refer Southern neighbour as “the Ukraine”. That designation should be avoided – Ukraine doesn’t want it used.
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham
#Redbridge ALP 34 L-NP 29 Grn 11 ON 14 IND/other 12
Their 2PP 54.0 to ALP (+0.5)
My estimate for these primaries 53.9 (-0.8) which is the lowest for this term from anyone
Mostly Interested @ #1517 Friday, October 10th, 2025 – 7:08 pm
It’s her age. They all want to be princesses or queens at that age.
When she’s older and discovers Barbie (the awesome Barbie of today, not the plastic Barbie of my generation) she’ll feel differently.
Player One:
It always says a lot about a person when they are so triggered by Greta
I admire Greta. She’s living her life according to her values and – seemingly – without malice for those whom she seeks to persuade. In one still very young, this is something that has to be respected.
Non-violent protest. The more we hear of her the more I like it.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/social-suicide-uni-liberal-club-laments-failure-to-attract-new-members-as-political-party-taints-image-20251008-p5n0x8.html
Who would have known that Young MAGA would be so toxic for university social circles?
Redbridge federal poll in AFR
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/coalition-s-catch-22-caught-between-teals-and-one-nation-surge-20251009-p5n1ex
https://archive.is/u7zN1 (no paywall archive version, probably loses some graphics)
TPP: ALP 54 (+0.5) L/NP 46 (-0.5)
Primary: ALP 34 L/NP 28 (-1) GRN 11 (0) ON 14 (+3)
sample is 1,997 done from 25 Sep to 7 Oct.
(+/-) changes from last poll completed 8 Sep which had respondent allocated preferences, don’t know if the new TPP mentioned is using the same method or last election preferences.
William had a copy of the Redbridge poll from September, maybe we will get another pdf like this later for the new poll?
https://www.pollbludger.net/wp-content/blogs.dir/6/files/2025/09/RedBridge-report-Shifts-in-Federal-vote-intention-since-the-May-election-Sept-2025.pdf
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham
#Redbridge ALP 34 L-NP 29 Grn 11 ON 14 IND/other 12
Official Reactionary PV 29
Ratbag Reactionary PV 14
Reactionary PV @ 43…..
2 high for my liking
Hack:
I admire Greta. She’s living her life according to her values and – seemingly – without malice for those whom she seeks to persuade. In one still very young, this is something that has to be respected.
Nothing against Ms Thunberg personally. Her heart is in the right place. But her activism is more performative than substantive. Whatever her cause is, I doubt she is advancing it.
Holdenhillbilly @ #1525 Friday, October 10th, 2025 – 6:48 pm
Oh my god, we’re all going to die!
I get ALP 2PP = 34 + 0*28 + 0.83*11 + 0.25*14 + 0.58*12 = 53.59%, which you’d round to 54%.
The margin of error would be about 2% if the sample size is about 2,000, or about 3% if about 1,000.
Steve777, Friday, October 10, 2025 at 7:17 pm:
Fun fact: the term ‘Ukraine’ was not originally Russian, but rather from an older, pre-Russian form of Slavic. It was also not first applied to the region by Russians at all. It was first used (to refer to basically all of the territory of the current Ukraine, as opposed to smaller units of territory) within the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, who were enemies of the (Russian) Grand Duchy of Muscovy at the time.
So what if Russia refers to somewhere as the borderlands? A plaything for military and dynastic games. Is there anywhere else still referred to as the Marches – the analogous term in English – like say the borderlands between Wales and England as they were once referred to? And Ukraine is a country of 40 million people. Although it’s still weird the Russians have to use the Germanic ‘the’ to insult their neighbours, there is no ‘the’ in Russian
Shogun @ #1531 Friday, October 10th, 2025 – 7:32 pm
Well, she sure pisses off the gammon boomers no matter what she does, so, that’s something she can probably use in the long term.
So many of them want to hammer-throw her by her pigtails like Miss Trunchbull in Matilda that it angers them into revealing their true feelings that they probably shouldn’t really say in public if they want to keep most sane people on-side.
Thanks HH, Fastwheels, Leroy @ Steve777 for the poll drop.
That PHON vote of 14% – I believe this eclipses her peak way, way, way, back in 1998.
Steve777 says:
Friday, October 10, 2025 at 7:35 pm
I get ALP 2PP = 34 + 0*28 + 0.83*11 + 0.25*14 + 0.58*12 = 53.59%, which you’d round to 54%.
The margin of error would be about 2% if the sample size is about 2,000, or about 3% if about 1,000.
=======
Mega sample. 1997
Millenials – 13% for PHON. Where the heck this come from? This is my age group
Steve777 – per your Green calc. I believe it should be 88.12% to Labor (not 83%)
subgeometer, exactly. Ukrainians get touchy when people refer to it the Russian way, though, because the Russians have shown themselves willing and able to back that language up with the actual application of real military force. And the consequences of that military invasion, as we have seen in so many ways, has been acutely and deeply painful for Ukrainians to have to bear.
Apologies to everyone if this comes across as ‘sanctimonious’.
If Greta Thunberg was ineffective noone would be hating on her like they do. What some dismiss as performative, other would call ‘consciousness raising’. And what non-performative options are open to her anyway? Something Israel could learn from, rather than taking pride in driving global opinion away. TPOFs eternal state won’t survive that way
Now that PHON has eclipsed The Greens’ PV, can some journalist with an ounce of integrity get on the phone and ask them for their complete suite of policies, like they routinely do for The Greens? As far as I can make out PHON is a Potemkin party. It’s all about ‘the vibe’.
Tim Minchin’s version of Matilda at the casino was so efffin’ awful, talk about turning a story(or the Danny de Vito movie adaptation) on its head. But with all the dance costumes backstage,what could they do, but have the librarian and the parents do a big ol’ routine that would have the orange turdmeister rockin’ in his seat
Anti-establishment?
Perhaps if the Liberals were a genuine going concern homemakers would feel more comfortable parking their vote with them.
I dunno. It’s just one poll.
I had to reread that.
FMD when PHON becomes the legit minor party you have to wonder where the Greens have gone wrong.
Finally. RFK Junior has solved autism.
No Tylenol.
No circumcision.
https://www.9news.com.au/world/robert-f-kennedy-links-circumcision-to-autism-in-wild-claim/a6affe20-4b60-4e13-8da4-fa9a7fb8caa3
US Health Secretary Robert F Kennedy has made a shock claim linking circumcision to autism, building on his recent controversial and unproven declaration that a common painkiller caused the condition.
“FMD when PHON becomes the legit minor party you have to wonder where the Greens have gone wrong.”
When you become blocker, nimby & reactionary, don’t be surprised when people move to the most reactionary.
Greta v Gina.
And the winner is…
”Steve777 – per your Green calc. I believe it should be 88.12% to Labor (not 83%)”
83% (⅚) is a fraction I’ve been using for ages. It’s crept up over the last few elections. Maybe it’s now out of date.
A flow of 88% would mean Green preferences favour Labor almost as strongly as the old DLP favoured the Coalition. It would increase my Labor 2PP by about half a percent (which would still round to 54%).
Hanson v Waters.
And the winner is…
Much as I’d like to mock the RFK circumcision thing, he specifically referred to it being because of circumcised babies being given Tylenol, so it’s just an extension of that junk not some new even more insane theory.