Three new national voting intention results, plus a poll of marginal LNP seats in Brisbane:
• The Guardian reports Essential Research has chanced its hand at a conventional two-party reading, as distinct from its 2PP+ measure inclusive of an undecided component (which on this occasion comes in at Labor 49.6%, Coalition 45.6%). In common with Newspoll and DemosAU (see below), it credits Labor with a 52-48 lead. Primary vote results also seemingly dispense with the usual undecided component, putting Labor at 32%, the Coalition at 34%, the Greens at 13% and One Nation at 10%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are unchanged on a fortnight ago at 44% approval and 47% disapproval, while Peter Dutton is steady at 39% and up three to 51%. The poll had a larger than usual sample of 2163, and was presumably conducted Wednesday to Sunday. More to follow when the full report is published later today.
• DemosAU published two polls yesterday, one being a national voting intention result remarkable for its high non-major party vote: Labor 29%, down 3.6% from the 2022 election and four points from the last national DemosAU poll in early February; Coalition 31%, down 4.7% and six points; Greens 14%, up 1.8% and two points; and One Nation on 9%, up 4.0% and two points; 3% for Trumpet of Patriots; and 7% for independents. This leaves two-party preferred heavily dependent on the correctness of preference flows, which in this case were allocated according to the result in 2022, an approach most pollsters have judged to be too favourable to Labor. This pans out to a 52-48 Labor lead, though based on the primary votes it can’t have been far off 53-47 – applying YouGov’s more conservative preference formula still produces 52-48. The DemosAU release also includes a more favourable 54-46 result for Labor using only the first pass at the voting intention question, which pollsters routinely follow with a prompt in which undecided voters are asked which way they are leaning, rarely publishing results for the first question in isolation of it. The poll also found Anthony Albanese leading Peter Dutton 43-34 on preferred prime minister. It was conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 1073.
• The second DemosAU poll presents an aggregated result for the Brisbane marginals of Bonner, Dickson, Forde, Longman and Petrie. Consistent with the current Queensland trend reading of BludgerTrack, this records little change on 2022 in two-party terms, the LNP’s lead of 53-47 comparing with 53.4-46.6 across the five seats in 2022. The collective major party decline is in this case more modest, with Labor on 27%, down from 30.2% in 2022; LNP 40%, down from 41.0%; Greens 13%, up from 11.6%; and One Nation 7%, up from 6.5%. The poll was conducted April 18 to 23 from a sample of 1053.
• After a series of Labor blowouts over the past month or two, the weekly Roy Morgan poll records a moderation to a two-party lead of 53-47 on the headline respondent-allocated preferences measure, in from 55.5-44.5 last week. The primary votes are Labor 34% (down half), Coalition 34.5% (up half), Greens 13% (down one-and-a-half) and One Nation 7.5% (up one-and-a-half). Labor’s lead on preference flows from the 2022 election was 54-46, in from 55.5-44.5 The accompanying release says the survey found “the Coalition performing better among those who had already voted”, though the sample here would have been barely 200. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1524.
Today’s instalment of Chart of the Day looks at the under-examined seat of Lingiari, which covers the Northern Territory outside of Darwin. Labor has held the seat since the territory was first split into two electorates in 2001, but the margin fell below 1% on two occasions — including in 2022, when it recorded a 4.5% swing against the trend. The purpose of the exercise is to illustrate that there is little telling what might happen in a potentially decisive seat that Labor holds on a post-redistribution margin of 1.6%. Specifically, the charts show the two-party preferred results going back two decades for the “remote mobile” booths, which are largely though not entirely concerned with servicing the territory’s Indigenous communities.
Two elections stand out in recording a near-halving in the absolute number of Labor votes: 2010, which presumably related to the Rudd-Gillard government’s perpetuation of the Howard government’s sweeping “intervention” policy in remote communities, and 2022, which Anthony Albanese attributed to the Morrison government having “ripped resources out of the Electoral Commission” in a “deliberate policy of the former government to restrict people voting in the territory”. Labor was also hampered by the retirement of Warren Snowdon, whose career as a federal parliamentarian went back to 1987. Snowdon’s Country Liberal opponent at his last election in 2019 was Jacinta Price, who gained a 2.7% swing and entered the Senate in 2022.
Whatever the veracity of Albanese’s claim, the drop in the Labor vote from 12,318 to 7,100 broadly coincided with a cut in Labor’s final winning margin from 5,292 votes to 866. One of the feature of the result among many was a drop in the total formal vote from 48,434 to 45,812, and in the turnout rate from 72.85% to 66.83%. This was less than half the average formal vote across the country’s 151 lower house seats, as Northern Territory enrolment numbers are already substantially below the norm due to a population barely enough to entitle it to a second seat, and turnout in the electorate is low at the best of times. The situation only slightly improved at the 2023 Indigenous Voice referendum, at which the remote mobile booths recorded 12,204 formal votes (73.3% of which were for yes) compared with 10,223 in 2022 and 16,114 in 2019.
Kirsdarkes honestly made I don’t even think labour was going to get 80 plus seats I think the days of that are over I mean you got more independents now so that’s gonna be a problem for labour now to get those seats especially if they like the independent also think the thing with the Canadian campaign is that the liberals were spot on the conservatives was up 2% and that still didn’t win them anything in fact opposition leader lost so yeah in fact considering how Peter acted today be surprised of internal pollings isn’t as good as as it is that’s why I always laugh on people said oh liberals could win it I’m like minority maybe majority nope they need to get all the independent seats they lost back and that really happens
Simon Bementia-son in his latest copium column fanfic: attempt #524 to make Dutton ‘a thing’, uses an exclamation point to underscore his mental unravelling :
“Be prepared for some surprises!”
Before scribbling in tongues some seat predicting hallucinations induced by internal LNP polling helpfully shared by his buddies .
If we’re prepared for it, it’s not a surprise.
The only thing I wishcast for is the LNP with a 4 in front of it. They don’t deserve that many.
jt1983
Please go back to Williams headline a couple of weeks ago that Stated “Hard evidence” that Trump is effecting the Australian election, I think it was 33% of Australians stated they were more likely to vote ALP because of Trump.
But please go back to believing that everyone just finally saw the light and they had just been wrong about Albo and his Government over the last three years.
I want you to believe the Shy Tory vote is not real. I count on it and I get it…every Federal election.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-29/ex-nsw-cfmeu-darren-and-michael-greenfield-plead-guilty-bribery-/105229404
Remember the smarmy Chandler-Mather standing before a crowd from the construction arm of CFMEU in his black T-shirt, saying that the ACTU and the Government placing the construction arm into administration was “flagrant disregard for the rule of law”? From memory, Bandt also backed this absurd proposition.
What might be interesting from this election’s results is long term ramifications. I don’t mean the usual political ramification or consequences of policy. I mean, if a lot of the polling is true, it’s another election with a third of the country choosing neither major, which in itself is an interesting development. The other thing is the further rise of PHON, which might be a little muted because of competition with the likes of Trumpets but that consolidate down the track. What intrigues me about that is the sharp rise in polling over the last few weeks coinciding with a drop in Coalition support (although I do think some of it is from voters who are mostly low engagement or even have historically preferred Labor.)
Could One Nation be setting itself up as the Coalition’s version of the Greens? i.e. the ideological party whose growth can be attributed to those disaffected with a major party and could we see it become the norm that Senate elections, regardless of state, typically yield a 2 Coalition, 2 Labor, 1 Green, 1 One Nation result going forward? I know I am getting ahead of myself and it’s way too early to make such calls, regardless of this weekend’s results. This is just some late night pondering.
I’m thinking it’ll be
Labor 79
LNP 52
Green 3
OTH 16
Looks like I’m all the way with Mostly Interested!
Quentin
That is a cop out put it on the line. ALP will achieve at least the polling average or higher, go for it. Me the liberal party will surprise at least .5 to the upside as they nearly always do.
The best way to avoid disappointment is to lower your expectations!
Thanks Mostly Interested, I hope the result is better for the government than this but I’m going for..
Labor 74
LNP 60
Greens 3
Other 13
Labor 51.5
LNP 48.5
Much more than what Dutton and his campaign actually deserves.
Steelydan ok mate how many seats the liberals will get because I said the lab is only going to get around mid to high 70s so tell me how many are they going to get and don’t do that shy Tori stuff because Kevin Bonham said it’s not a thing
Converted todays data dump to csv file using ChatGPT (paid version)
https://easyupload.io/svu6ef
When will we get a final You Gov MRP Wednesday or Thursday? That is if we get 1 ?
It would be good to compare to the last 1 they did a month ago.
evadssays:
Wednesday, April 30, 2025 at 12:16 am
Thanks Mostly Interested, I hope the result is better for the government than this but I’m going for..
Labor 74
LNP 60
Greens 3
Other 13
Labor 51.5
LNP 48.5
Much more than what Dutton and his campaign actually deserves.
_______________________________________________________
We don’t have the same political strips but I agree with you on both accounts the seats and the campaign, truly piss poor. The LNP will probably do a tad worse than those 2pp but the seats are about right.
Interesting thought Wat. The only thing that screws with all of that is the ‘teal’ independents. I think the ALP will always be able to cobble together a consensus with the teals and/or greens. But I don’t think the LNP would be able to do that with the teals and one nation. The real problem is that the nationals and one nation are kinda the same people. As Turnbull would note, if you do anything they don’t like, they’ll cut you off at the knees.
This issue in the coalition isn’t about ON, it’s about the libs and the nats. It is becoming more and more of an issue as the liberals shrink and one nation grows. It’s that relationship that is the real thing that remains unresolved. It’s whether the liberals have anything to bargain with, with the nats and ON. They kinda don’t. It demonstrates why they don’t have a policy platform. It doesn’t matter what i think. It matters what they think. They can’t agree on anything.
Yes, the polls are always high on Labor at Federal elections except for 2022 when Resolve was too low, and 2016 when they were all either bang on or too low, and 2013 when the 2PP was 53.5 – 46.5 and half the polls were 54-46 and the other half 53-47, (apart from Morgan which has 54.5-45.5 to the Coalition, which is not exactly too high for Labor), do I really need to go on with this?
2019 is not every single election.
2019 was a shock specifically because it was unusual and the Australian polling industry had such a reputation for accuracy apart from Morgan. If the polls usually missed high on Labor, 2019 would not have been a shock.
Quinton
There you go beat you to it. It will be a Labor minority for sure but I am absolutely certain that Albo and the ALP will be even less effective as they were the first three years, with no Trump to throw them a life line next time.
Predictions
ALP 71
LNP 62
IND 13
Greens 4
TPP – ALP 52.2 LNP 47.8
Mostly Interested, I’m in for
Labor 74 (-3)
Liberal 62 (+4)
Greens 3 (-1)
Other 11 (-1)
2PP one point lower than final Newspoll, currently 51/49
At least I’ll be happy if I’m wrong.
Arky
Yes you will have to go on with it. Did you actually use individual polling companies and not averages. Did I get under your skin that much you had to research individual Polling companies to make your point. Why did you not use the Polling companies averages…oh I see why you needed to tell a bit of a fib. Just start with 2022
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/results/party-totals
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election
Now you do the rest and keep going back
“White House calls Amazon ‘hostile’ for reportedly planning to list tariff costs”
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/apr/29/amazon-trump-tariff-costs
The tech billionaires who bent the knee, kissed the ring and showed their ass to Trump really ballsed it up, eh?
jt1983 says Tuesday, April 29, 2025 at 11:43 pm
I’m a bit skeptical that votes to minor parties leak. I tend to think the PHON voters who preference the ALP before the LNP were probably ALP voters to begin with, and the Greens voters who preference the Liberals over the ALP where Liberal voters before. I think they’re generally just returning home.
@Steelydan: “Yes you will have to go on with it. Did you actually use individual polling companies and not averages. Did I get under your skin that much you had to research individual Polling companies to make your point.”
Oh, are YOU trying to get under MY skin? I’m not sure that’s what’s happening here. I think you’re kinda losing it at the fact that Labor is winning the campaign and just kinda spraying a mixture of shit and copium around, and I really enjoy watching Tories losing their shit in this fashion, it’s a failing I know.
I just used the Wikipedia polling page that you actually just listed there plus the equivalent ones for past elections (I could also have used Dr Bonham’s roundups, but the Wiki page was easier to Google), why would I research individual companies? Just to confirm the numbers as I already knew the general patterns from these past elections. And I told no fibs.
If I’m preoccupied with something on election eve, this is my 2PP prediction:
ALP 50.4%
LNP 49.6%
Will probably post later. Been busy.
(may change my prediction later)
My respect for Canada has increased. Aggression should always be defied, not appeased and rewarded.
I’ve read countless comments , and feedback has been taken on board.
And yet: if the tide is going out on the LNP, I think that seats like Petrie, Longman, Bonner, Bowman, Dickson, and Forde must come into play.
I understand commentators who are jaded from previous elections, but I’m looking at 52-53 2PP to Labor. At that level, all sorts of seats swing, and I’m choosing to be positive.
And also, as a voter on the left, I don’t really care about Labor taking seats off the greens. I want Labor to be ambitious : because if Brisbane seats fall, it’s hard to imagine a LNP government any time soon. And the representatives of those six seats are, in my opinion, very low-quality representatives….
Just because it hasn’t happened for awhile doesn’t mean it can’t happen.
I mean the ALP won a seat off the opposition ( Aston) for the first time in over 100 years whilst in government : you can’t just write off seats because of negative experiences in the past.
Also, I don’t get ALP supporters bagging Greens relentlessly. Seriously, know your real enemy ! And people are only giving major parties 65% of the vote.. now, and in the future, coalitions will be necessary because of how voters are voting.
That’s what people are deciding to do with their vote!! The faux outrage is too much at times, on this blog !
We all have to communicate with people that we don’t totally love in real life; why should political parties be different?
Arky
Also read a little while you are making up your numbers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election
Post-election, several well-known psephologists undertook assessments of accuracy for the voting results produced by each major pollster’s final poll. These employed differing methods of assessment, but generally determined that the polling industry was more accurate overall than in 2019, though still tended to overstate Labor’s primary vote share.
This is my point your just more groovy if you vote Labor, groovier still if you vote Green.
New thread.