Live Commentary
6:57am Wednesday The Liberals will hold a minority government after winning 169 of the 343 seats, three short of a majority. The Conservatives won 144 seats, the BQ 22, the NDP seven and the Greens one. National vote shares were 43.7% Liberals, 41.3% Conservatives, 6.3% BQ, 6.3% NDP 1.3% Greens and just 0.7% for the far-right People’s.
9:06pm There are still special ballots remaining to be counted, which are cast by mail by voters who will be away from their home divisions on election day. I expect these to favour the Liberals just like absent votes favour Labor in Aus. Counting will resume at 11:30pm AEST tonight. On current figures, the Liberals will be just short of a majority of seats. They’ve won or are leading in 168 (172 is needed for a majority). Poilievre lost his seat.
5:33pm NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has announced he will resign. The Liberals won Singh’s seat.
4:25pm I’ve done a write-up for The Conversation on the Canadian results, and also covered Trump’s slumping US ratings. Tory leader Pierre Poilievre is looking gone in his own seat of Carleton.
2:57pm Tory leader Pierre Poilievre is trailing the Libs by 51.6-45.1 in his own seat of Carleton with 145 of 266 booths in.
2:47pm The Tories have made a number of gains in British Columbia from the collapse of the NDP vote as it hasn’t all gone to the Libs in NDP-held seats.
1:52pm The Tories have gained Windsor West from the NDP because the Lib surge meant the anti-Tory vote in that seat was split between the Libs and NDP.
1:45pm The Liberals have won or are leading in 163 seats, the Tories in 147, the BQ in 24, the NDP in 10 and the Greens in one. Popular votes are 42.6% Libs to 41.7% Tories, 7.9% BQ and 5.4% NDP. With such a high two-party share, the smaller parties are doing well to win as many seats as they are. It looks as if the Lib vote was not as efficiently distributed as in 2021, as I predicted.
1:02pm The CBC’s results are back. The Libs lead by 44.0-40.9 on popular votes with 8% for the BQ and 4.9% NDP. Seats are 159 Libs, 143 Tories, 24 BQ, 10 NDP and one Green. On current counts, the Libs will be short of a majority.
12:40pm With some results from 319 of the 343 seats, it’s 158 Libs, 130 Tories, 23 BQ and eight NDP. If this holds, it wouldn’t quite be a majority for the Libs.
12:27pm CTV News results has the Libs leading or elected in 146 seats, the Tories in 113, the BQ in 24 and the NDP in five.
12:20pm The CBC’s results site has crashed! But they project the Liberals will form the next government, no projection yet for whether it’s minority or majority.
12:07pm The Libs are leading the seat count now by 108-79 with 16 BQ and 3 NDP. They lead the popular vote by 50.6-38.5. This is now looking like a Liberal landslide.
12:04pm The CBC has called a Lib GAIN from Tory in a Nova Scotia seat.
11:58am So far in Ontario, the most populous province with 121 seats, the Libs lead the Tories by 32-22 in seats although the Tories are leading on popular votes by 47.5-45.7. Rural booths are probably reporting first, so it’s likely there’s a pro-Tory bias in votes counted so far.
11:52am Libs leading in seats by 72-52 over Tories with 10 BQ and 1 NDP.
11:40am Libs now leading the seat count over the Tories by 37-26 on popular votes of 51.5-40.1. BQ leading in 12 seats and NDP in one.
11:29am With polls about to close in the large majority of Canada, Libs lead in seats by 22-10 and in popular votes by 52.2-40.4. Two Quebec seats were in Atlantic time and have reported results, with the BQ leading in both.
11:08am Liberal popular vote lead now just over ten points.
10:52am Liberals’ popular vote margin over the Tories up to eight points. I’ve read comments here from BTsays that pollsters had the Libs doing better with early votes than on election day. These votes won’t appear until later.
10:32am The CBC has called a GAIN for the Tories from the Libs in Long Range Mountain.
10:29am The Liberals are now leading the seat count by 22-9 and the vote count by 50-44. But they’re NOT 21 points ahead in Atlantic Canada.
10:06am The Liberals have now taken a three-point lead in popular votes.
10:01am The Liberals lead the Tories by 16 seats to 5, but the Tories lead in popular votes currently by 48-46. This isn’t looking like a 21-point Liberal popular vote margin in Atlantic Canada, but perhaps votes counted are mostly rural and/or the Liberals will do better once the pre-poll votes are counted.
9:44am In Newfoundland, the 2021 result was a Liberal win by 47.7-32.5 in popular votes over the Tories and the Liberals won six of the seven seats. Currently the Tories are leading by 52.1-42.5 in popular votes, although the Liberals are leading in four of the seven seats. Perhaps votes counted so far are more rural.
9:07am The first polls have closed in one of the small Atlantic provinces that’s 30 minutes ahead of the rest of Atl Can. The CBC results are here.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
Results for the Canadian federal election will be out today. First past the post is used to elect the 343 MPs, with 172 seats required for a majority. Polls in the 32 Atlantic Canada seats close by 9:30am AEST. At 11:30am AEST, the large majority of polls close simultaneously owing to staggered polling hours across three time zones. At 12pm AEST, the final polls close in British Columbia (43 seats).
Vote counting will initially be fast, but will slow down as election-day booths are exhausted, with the final booths being early voting centres, like in Australia. Elections Canada said 7.3 million had voted during the advance voting period from April 18-21, an increase of 25% from 2021. This represents about 25% of all eligible voters. Canadian media don’t attempt to use booth-matched results. Seat totals are reported as “won” (called for a candidate) and “leading”.
The CBC Poll Tracker was updated for the final time late Sunday (the last pre-election day), and it gives the governing centre-left Liberals 42.8% of the vote (up 0.5 since my previous Canadian article on Saturday), the Conservatives 39.2% (up 0.6), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 8.1% (down 0.5), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 6.0% (steady) (26.1% in Quebec), the Greens 1.8% (down 0.5) and the far-right People’s 1.3% (down 0.1).
Seat point estimates are 189 Liberals (down one since Saturday), 125 Conservatives (steady), 23 BQ (up one), five NDP (steady) and one Green (steady). The Tracker now gives the Liberals a 70% chance of a majority, down from 73% previously. They have a 19% chance to win the most seats but not a majority. The Conservatives have a 10% chance to win the most seats and just a 1% chance of a majority. The polls would need to be very wrong for this to occur.
The Liberal lead over the Conservatives in the Tracker has fallen from its peak of 7.1 points on April 8 to 3.6 points now. The most likely reason for this movement is that Mark Carney’s honeymoon from replacing Justin Trudeau on March 14 as Liberal leader and PM has faded.
On Saturday night, at least 11 people were killed when an SUV drove into a crowd of Filipinos in Vancouver. This was likely a racist attack against Filipinos, so it shouldn’t hurt the Liberals. In Liaison, Nanos and Forum polls conducted Sunday (one-day polls), the Liberal lead was respectively 2, 2.7 and 4 points.
Atlantic Canada has four low-population provinces, and the Liberals hold a 21-point lead over the Conservatives in this region in the Tracker. The early results from Atlantic Canada could give clues about how accurate the polls are.
The Liberal vote is more efficiently distributed than the Conservative vote owing to Conservative vote wastage in safe rural seats. At the 2021 election, the Liberals won 160 of the then 338 seats on 32.6%, with the Conservatives winning 119 seats on 33.7%.
However, there would have been many seats in 2021 where the Liberal’s margin was relatively low owing to a high NDP or BQ vote. With support for the NDP halved from 17.8% in 2021, the Liberal margin in these seats will increase, leading to more Liberal vote wastage and a less efficiently distributed vote.
UK local elections and a parliamentary by-election on Thursday
UK local government elections and aparliamentary by-election in Labour-held Runcorn and Helsby will be held on Thursday, with polls closing at 7am AEST Friday. I don’t expect results from the by-election for several hours after polls close. I previously covered these elections on April 19.
Also a dramatic victory for the Liberals in Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, which takes up most of northern Saskatchewan. So far a 65-26 result, flipping a 27-49 result to the Conservatives from 2021.
I have to say the reporting and analysis by Canadian media outlets on this election is terrible.
The CBC which if it were anything like the ABC would have the best coverage, doesn’t have any information about:
*Swings overall or in ridings relative to last election
*Summary of seats changing hands
*% of expected vote counted/turnout etc.
They need a kick up the backside.
Surely Dupont’s mother voted for him. He should demand a recount.
Outsider @
Tuesday, April 29, 2025 at 5:05 pm
That’s the riding with 91 candidates. Even so, there is something quite Monty Pythonesque about receiving no votes at all after not voting for yourself.
Appreciate your coverage of the election Monsieur Beaumont
Yes, Adrian Beaumont’s efforts are much appreciated. I’ve only looked at Canadian online print media reporting, but it makes me realise how fortunate we are in Australia with high quality election data and analysis – testimony to people like Antony Green, Kevin Bonham and William Bowe. Each special in his own way. We are very privileged.
Even so, there is something quite Monty Pythonesque about receiving no votes at all after not voting for yourself.
==========
More than slightly.
Kevin Phillips-Bong of the Slightly Silly Party got 0 votes in Luton where Tarquin Fin-tim-lin-bin-whin-bim-lim-bus-stop-F’tang-F’tang-Olé-Biscuitbarrel of the Silly Party easily defeated Alan Jones of the Sensibles
https://youtu.be/dVI5ZOT5QEM?si=P4DN2Z47E_2idMoA
CBC is now reporting that the Opposition Leader has lost his seat. https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2025/results/
Let me add my appreciation of all your good work, Adrian. Very sound analysis, I’ve learnt a fair bit now about Canadian elections. I look forward to reading your thoughts on the final results later.
Now there’s a worthy handle. Sorry – had to :p
Outsider
+1
I think you don’t have to live in a riding to run in it. So Ysack Dupont might not have been able to vote for themselves.
Ysack Dupont deserves some lasting recognition for his glorious achievement!
“Also a dramatic victory for the Liberals in Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, which takes up most of northern Saskatchewan. So far a 65-26 result, flipping a 27-49 result to the Conservatives from 2021.”
Different seat/boundaries since 2021, not sure what the ‘notional’ figure was for the newly drawn riding pre-election.
Michaelsays:
Tuesday, April 29, 2025 at 7:44 pm
CBC is now reporting that the Opposition Leader has lost his seat. https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2025/results/
===================================================
Thanks Michael, i think i owe you apology for my making a remark about Menzies house in response to one of your post the other day. There is another poster that posts under “michael” but with a small m. Who is a very rusted on LNP supporter. I have only just realised that he posts with a lower caps m.
BTSays @ #211 Tuesday, April 29th, 2025 – 8:45 pm
Oh, that’s a pretty dramatic redistribution they had there then.
B. S. Fairman says:
Tuesday, April 29, 2025 at 8:11 pm
I think you don’t have to live in a riding to run in it. So Ysack Dupont might not have been able to vote for themselves.
**********
Correct. No residential requirement.
Carney lives in another Ottawa Riding for example.
If I recall from the article on the 90+ candidates in the riding I posted a couple of weeks ago voters in a riding can nominate more than one candidate so not even his nominators voted for him.
I think the Long Ballot campaign must have had some sort of mass signing session to enable them to get so many ‘independents’ onto the ballot.
They were going to do the same to Carney but didn’t have the time to get organised.
Thanks for the coverage, Adrian.
@ Kirsdarke re the Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River riding
The map on wiki shows some change to the boundaries
And this explanation
“The 2023 redistribution order removed most of the territory outside of the Northern Saskatchewan Administration District from the riding, reducing its population considerably. That will have the effect of creating an overwhelmingly Indigenous riding more similar to the territorial ridings.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desneth%C3%A9%E2%80%94Missinippi%E2%80%94Churchill_River
And ridings with similar demographics tend to vote liberal.
David Beckham lost to the Greens in the Saanich-Gulf Islands. Couldn’t bend the votes well enough it appears.
ChrisC @ #215 Tuesday, April 29th, 2025 – 9:21 pm
Ah, okay, cheers for the explanation.
Sverik says:
Tuesday, April 29, 2025 at 6:55 pm
I have to say the reporting and analysis by Canadian media outlets on this election is terrible.
The CBC which if it were anything like the ABC would have the best coverage, doesn’t have any information about:
(snip)
They need a kick up the backside.
*******
I’ve followed Canadian Elections for 20 years and this is just how they do it there.
Just because they do it differently doesn’t mean it’s wrong!
Outsider says:
Tuesday, April 29, 2025 at 8:35 pm
Maybe someone could start a Go-Fund Me for for Ysack Dupont’s amazing achievement. No statue, just a plinth.
Outsider says:
Tuesday, April 29, 2025 at 8:35 pm
Maybe someone could start a Go-Fund Me for for Ysack Dupont’s amazing achievement. No statue, just a plinth.
I have to agree that the CBC coverage is just poor. It’s not that there’s not much of it, there is – it’s the quality.
Where’s the bar charts showing changes from previous time in the seats being looked at, for one thing, instead of random numbers being thrown at us which aren’t actually anything meaningful but mere talking point.
Even the BBC is better in UK elections than this, though it’s a bit different of course because counting doesn’t get disclosed until all the votes in a seat are counted so there’s less live info. But they do have Professor John Curtice explaining what the data means, and what the implications of the results in one seat mean for a whole bunch of others for which we don’t yet have the results.
But ABC in Australia is definitely the best of the 3 – Antony Green etc. actually talk meaningful numbers.
All countries have a bunch of talking heads and politicos in the studio that are a mixed bag – I hope I never have to hear that Liberal ex-MP guy on the CBC panel at the start of the evening ever again! – clearly had no idea that the campaign was over and thought he needed to keep plugging for Liberals and Carney and against Poilievre etc. – was no subtlety to us nerds but thought it was below the belt given innocent and susceptible viewers listening. Whereas the NDP and Conservative guys that came on at different points seemed much more balanced and sensible.
Adrian – conservative and ndp votes reversed in your update. Thanks for your columns.
”
Sveriksays:
Tuesday, April 29, 2025 at 6:55 pm
I have to say the reporting and analysis by Canadian media outlets on this election is terrible.
The CBC which if it were anything like the ABC would have the best coverage, doesn’t have any information about:
*Swings overall or in ridings relative to last election
*Summary of seats changing hands
*% of expected vote counted/turnout etc.
They need a kick up the backside.
”
”
Douglas and Milkosays:
Tuesday, April 29, 2025 at 8:10 pm
Outsider
Yes, Adrian Beaumont’s efforts are much appreciated. I’ve only looked at Canadian online print media reporting, but it makes me realise how fortunate we are in Australia with high quality election data and analysis – testimony to people like Antony Green, Kevin Bonham and William Bowe. Each special in his own way. We are very privileged.
+1
”
Look at the print media of CNC as posted by Michael. It gives breakdowns of seats and percentage as per states.
”
Michaelsays:
Tuesday, April 29, 2025 at 7:44 pm
CBC is now reporting that the Opposition Leader has lost his seat. https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2025/results/
“
Was gonna post this last night but had a
think about what went wrong.
No idea how the Canadian Liberals won the popular vote. Dumbfounded.
Possibly real voting intention closely follows the keys, but not exactly the same as what the keys say, and therefore a major news event (trump tariffs) had more of an impact in the short-term than the keys suggested, and the short-term over performance carried on to the election. Either that or Canadian Liberal turnout was high and Conservative turnout was low, but turnout as a whole was high, so maybe not.
Woah, Entropy was actually accurate
Entropysays:
Sunday, March 2, 2025 at 5:36 pm
“The existential threat to Canada that caused that bounce is not going away anytime soon. The Canadian Liberals will ride the Trump bounce all the way to the election . Meanwhile, the Canadian Conservatives will spend that time trying in vain to distance themselves from the Trumpian menace that lies to the south.”
Entropysays:
Sunday, March 2, 2025 at 4:59 pm
“I predict the election will be held on October 20th 2025. It will result in a Canadian Liberal minority Government.”
Too bad they predicted the wrong date or it would’ve been spot-on (though quite biased)
Canadian Liberals won the popular vote due to the current deadshit in the White House. That is the main reason, Trump is a selfish dumbass. And Trump is affecting the Aussie election, just not to the same level as Canada, without Trump Dutton would have had an outside chance of minority government.
Which party will guarantee confidence, and what concessions if any will they get?
herman the germansays:
Wednesday, April 30, 2025 at 12:26 pm
Which party will guarantee confidence, and what concessions if any will they get?
======================================================
The 7 NDP seats will be enough, so it will be them. Seeing the NDP was routed, I doubt they will ask for much. Though I think there is a slim chance they might ask for the official recognition of party status in the parliament to go from 12 to 6.
If the Liberals are on 169 seats, only 3 short of a majority, they don’t really need to make any formal arrangements. Between Bloc Quebecois, NDP and the Green there’s over 30 votes for support on a broad range of issues wherever the Conservatives don’t agree. Though that’s not to say they will go a full term before attrition (or a potential if unlikely poll rebound) leads to a new election.
Arange – I don’t really have any doubt myself that without Trump’s further late interventions on:
a) The Wednesday before the Monday election; and
b) On the morning of election day itself – a worse one in fact
caused more than a 2.4% difference between the 2 major parties – and with it the election, as Conservatives would likely have won another 12-18 seats in Ontario and a bunch of close ones elsewhere.
Not entirely sure it would have saved Poilievre himself, as the swing in his seat was AGAINST the Tories and for Libs – Ontario had this mixed pattern across its province, with significant swings to Lib-Con in S-W Ontario (where they hoovered up the NDP seats that everyone assumed Libs would win) and large parts of the GTA, but Con-Lib swings elsewhere.
Libs had at least as big a vote lead over Cons in Ontario overall as in 2021 but Cons gained 14 seats net and Libs lost 10.
Although there were a smattering of seat polls, national pollsters didn’t pick up that the vote spread wasn’t going to favour Libs in the way that it usually does, this time. Post-election, this factor is now much more even between Libs and Cons.
I have to say, that where Poilievre was campaigning was clearly spot on – and generally saved/won seats in exactly those places, where some of the commentariat were criticising him for going- although his late rally in Carleton couldn’t save his own seat.
NB Conservatives lost 4 seats in Ontario to Libs where incumbents were standing, including Carleton, and 1 of the 4 was a reversion to normal after the Cons narrowly won a Toronto riding at a by-election when Libs were at a low ebb – so strictly it wasn’t a loss from 2021 anyway.
I’m just not sure how many others they might have lost in Ontario where incumbents weren’t standing.
Popular vote shares in Ontario vs. 2021:
Lib 49.6% (+10.3)
Con 44.3% (+9.4)
NDP 4.9% (-12.9)
Green 1.2% (-1.0)
Seat count in Ontario vs. 2021 (122 total vs. 121 in 2021)
Lib 69 (-9)
Con 53 (+16)
NDP 0 (-5)
Green 0 (-1)
So a 25-seat turnaround for Cons against Libs even though they fell another % behind Libs on the popular vote and Libs topped at nearly 50%.
Ontario again
I’ve been right through the 122 ridings and noted the numbers of ridings that now have a 0-5% margin (toss-up if you will) and those that have a 5-10% margin (leaning one way or another).
I don’t have any detailed data on regional swings within Ontario other than the seat data, let alone a formula to calculate changes in each of these sub-regions for each 1% Lib and Con move closer/further away from each other. Though we can reiterate: some Ontario regions/demographics swung Lib-Con and others swung Con-Lib – it was as far removed from uniform swing as you can get just about.
So it’s not hyper-accurate but let me share the following:
* Liberals, overall, had more seats where they had >60% and more vote ‘wastage’ than Cons this time, including inner Toronto and Ottawa.
* There are 12 Lib seats with 0-5%, and 12 with 5-10%, margin. Because of the differential swings mentioned above, I believe most of the 0-5% bunch would have been won by Cons if they had been 2% closer to Libs in the province, though not Carleton (Poilievre’s seat, 5.0% margin), and maybe some of the 5-10% bunch. Certainly the city of Brampton would have completed its switch to Cons.
* Conversely, some of the 15 Con seats with 0-5% margin (and some of the 15 Con 5-10% margins) would also fall to Lib on a smaller province-wide swing than the margin in these seats – BUT not as many as the other way round because they are seats that have swung to Cons this election not the other way round.
* Ontario was moving back to Cons whilst other provinces weren’t, or weren’t at the same rate. If the Conservatives had got this extra couple of % in Ontario, it might have been just 0.5% average in the rest of the country (again, with bigger sub-regional swings and no swing to Cons in Quebec), meaning Libs still had a >1% lead in popular vote nationally. . . whilst Cons WON THE ELECTION. Including the handful of extra seats they’d have won outside of Ontario, you’d have been looking at:
a) A reversal of the 169-144 Lib-Con seats won; and
b) A reversal of the situation of the last two elections, where Cons won the popular vote but Libs were way in front in number of seats won.
This might sound like a lot of ‘what ifs’ but the point is simple: Conservative really did come very, very close to winning this election against expectations, and likely would have done were it not for Trump’s 11th hour interventions on the closing days. And probably their leader would still have lost his seat in the process! So it would have been remarkable.
This is a sad result for science-based health care for adolescents.
The election of Donald Trump really saved the Liberals’ bacon. A thoroughly undeserved win on their part.
There is still a chance Liberals will get a majority.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMETGFxXZYo