Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
The Canadian federal election will be held on April 28, with first past the post used to elect the 343 MPs; 172 seats are required for a majority. The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Friday, and it gives the governing centre-left Liberals 43.7% of the vote (down 0.3 since my previous Canadian article on April 10), the Conservatives 37.7% (up 0.6), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 8.5% (steady), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 5.4% (steady) (23.7% in Quebec), the Greens 2.4% (steady) and the far-right People’s 1.7% (steady).
Seat point estimates are 197 Liberals (down four since my April 10 article), 122 Conservatives (up six), 18 BQ (down two), five NDP (steady) and one Green (steady). The Tracker now gives the Liberals an 88% chance of a majority if the election were held now, up from 87% previously. The Liberal lead had dropped to 5.3 points in Thursday’s Tracker update before recovering on Friday.
The Liberal vote is more efficiently distributed than the Conservative vote owing to Conservative vote wastage in very safe rural seats. At the 2021 election, the Liberals won 160 of the then 338 seats on 32.6%, with the Conservatives winning 119 seats on 33.7%.
There were two leaders’ debates: a French debate on Wednesday and an English debate on Thursday. Both debates had the leaders of the NDP and BQ as well as the Liberal and Conservative leaders. A snap Abacus Data poll, taken after the English debate, gave Liberal leader and PM Mark Carney a net +37 positive rating, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre had a net +23 positive rating. The NDP and BQ leaders did not impress voters.
We will need to wait three more days for voting intention polls to be fully taken after both debates. These debates were probably the last opportunity for a Conservative revival before the election. Unless the polls are significantly overstating the Liberals, the Liberals should win.
In an early April YouGov Canadian poll, by 64-25, respondents said the US was unfriendly or an enemy (50-33 in February). By 84-11, they opposed Canada becoming part of the US. If they had been able to vote in the 2024 US presidential election, Kamala Harris would have defeated Donald Trump by 57-18 among Canadians.
UK local elections and parliamentary by-election
UK local government elections will be held on May 1. These are held every May, but on a four-year cycle, so most seats up at these elections last faced election in 2021. The BBC calculates a Projected National Share (PNS) for each year’s elections, which allows results for a particular election to be compared to the previous year’s election, and also to the election four years ago. Only English councils are included in this year’s elections.
In 2021, the last time these seats were contested, Boris Johnson was popular, and the Conservatives won the PNS by 36-29 over Labour with 17% for the Liberal Democrats. In the 2024 local elections, held two months before the general election where Labour won a landslide, Labour won the PNS by 34-25 over the Conservatives, with 17% for the Lib Dems and 12% for the Greens. Usually PNS only gives vote shares for Labour, the Conservatives and Lib Dems, but the far-right Reform should be included this year.
The Election Maps UK national poll aggregate gives Labour 24.4% of the vote, Reform 23.9%, the Conservatives 22.5%, the Lib Dems 13.6% and the Greens 9.0%. If these vote shares are reflected at the local elections, Reform will make massive gains at the expense of the Conservatives, with Labour also slumping. Polls conducted in April give Labour leader and PM Keir Starmer a net approval below -30.
There will also be a parliamentary by-election on May 1 for the Labour-held Runcorn and Helsby. Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigned in March after being sentenced for assault. At the 2024 election, Labour defeated Reform in this seat by 52.9-18.1 with 16.0% for the Conservatives, 6.4% for the Greens and 5.1% for the Lib Dems. Two seat polls conducted in March gave Reform 3-5 point leads over Labour.
I see Mainstreet Research April 23 rd poll shows Lib 42 and Cons 39. So i would say it was back to where it was before the Easter polling period. Which really suggests there has been little change over the last few weeks.
Entropy
“Which really suggests there has been little change over the last few weeks.”
That’s a very selective reading!
If you’d said “…over the public holiday weekend” I might have agreed with you – although even that’s not quite clear.
FWIW, MAINSTREET today is 43-40 not 42-39 (same size lead either way), full numbers below:
43-40-9-5 (42-41-6-6) – most notable point is the big jump for NDP, who seem all over the place in polls atm, another indication of the large volatility at this election underneath relatively incremental overall polling changes.
Worse favourability numbers for Poilievre as well, so clearly yesterday’s part of the poll was not a good one for Cons.
NANOS
43-39-7-6 (44-39-8-5) – perhaps worth noting that, were it not for rounding, you would see that today’s numbers are a full 2% better for Cons (up 0.8, Lib down 1.2).
* Although today’s changes by themselves are within MOE, Nik Nanos notes that these are their best figures for Cons, and for Poilievre as preferred PM (up 4% since yesterday, gap now 9.4%) since the campaign begun.
As usual, no Liaison has appeared yet.
It’s a shame that that Innovative detailed report didn’t include seat projections, but you can’t have everything. . . the thing that stands out to me as much as anything else is the statistical dead heat they claim is now the case in Ontario on VI. A tie in Ontario would be a 2% Lib to Con swing since the 2021 election.
The other fascinating possibility at next Monday’s election is that it could be the election where more seats have been gained by both Lib from Con and Con from Lib, than ever before – a reasonable likelihood that this will be double digit numbers being swapped in both directions (that’s what the YouGov MRP predicts). This, of course, would mean that Conservatives were a long way off the overall seat gains required and that Liberals would have at least a minority, if not a majority, victory.
BTSays says:
Thursday, April 24, 2025 at 4:21 pm
I don’t think I’m going to be able to keep up with putting all the polls on PB, although I enjoy doing the analysis for myself anyway. I hope it hasn’t been taking up more of the thread / been less useful, than people wanted/I hoped.
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Not at all BT Says. Great input.
I’d forgotten about this thread myself.
I think it may be a Conservative minority win come Monday (Tues OZ time).
The first polls close at 8.30pm Atlantic Time (Eastern Canada) which will be around 9.30am AEST Tues.
BTSayssays:
Friday, April 25, 2025 at 12:58 am
Entropy
“Which really suggests there has been little change over the last few weeks.”
That’s a very selective reading!
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Possibly it is but when i look back through the poll data. I think the Liberal lead has been overestimated at times by Ekos and Nanos. While Mainstream and others have at times have somewhat overestimated the Cons vote. Which made the polls jump around more than they should of. I think for all of April there was pretty much a 4-5% percentage lead to Canadian Liberals and there still is.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_Canadian_federal_election
If you think my reading is selective what do you think of the claim of this poster? Which appears to have no alignment at all with what the polls are currently suggesting.
“I think it may be a Conservative minority win come Monday (Tues OZ time).”
I’m sorry – anyone who thinks the Conservatives are going to be within cooee of government really doesn’t know what they’re talking about.
The core problem is vote inefficiency- the CPC have deep vote sinks in the Prairies and what seems to be happening is the LPC sugar hit is coming off in places like SK, AB and MB.
If the LPC has the highest vote share – they will likely not only win, but be in majority.
Theres no suggestion of a serious NDP recovery nor any clear resurgence of the CPC in Ontario which is what they need to have a shot.
Hello Nadia
Thanks for your comments. See also my reply to Entropy below.
“If you think my reading is selective what do you think of the claim of this poster? Which appears to have no alignment at all with what the polls are currently suggesting.
“I think it may be a Conservative minority win come Monday (Tues OZ time).””
Well firstly tbf Nadia wasn’t attempting to say polls were going one way or another like you, she was giving a (presumably gut feel) prediction, caveated by a ‘may be’.
4 things on this:
1. I can see how a reading of the detail of various of this week’s polls – including YouGov (indicating where votes are rising / falling, which is even more interesting to me than their specific seat projections) and the very detailed 3 Innovative polls – might lead someone to ‘sense’ or predict this outcome. Political instinct is important in the game of predictions of what WILL YET happen as part of the overall reading of the numbers.
2. Having said that, I do suspect that Trump’s re-entrance into the Canada MSM with his fresh 51st state comments may put paid to any possibility of the Conservative revival continuing. I was surprised that Poilievre did’t try and jump in first and steal the thunder on this topic as Carney was a bit slow before milking it as usual, but I suppose the worry for PP there is that it gives it even more oxygen to Trump – but I think he had the ‘oxygen’ anyway tbh. But it’s not PP’s style to veer away from the key challenges facing Canadians today.
3. A counter to 2. above might be that if the remaining undecideds haven’t gone for Liberals already – who were deeply unpopular as recently as January, based on a whole host of economic issues mainly – what reason would make them now? But maybe they are just ditherers who mistrust their choice even after they’ve made it and will still vote Lib.
4. Finally, even if Conservatives did win a minority, it’s probably slightly more likely that it remains a Lib-led government post election. Unlike the last couple of elections, there will be so few ridings won by other parties that the 2nd-placed party won’t be far behind the winner (in the event of a hung parliament, I mean). Although that’s by no means a certainty, as BQ will be in the driving seat and they are not far left like NDP – their roots came from Conservative politicians as well as others, and they are hard to put in a box although they are quite left-wing socially (remember, too, that BQ is, as the name, a ‘Bloc’ of a range of separatist-supporting entities across the political spectrum – these people then fight as separate parties at provincial elections, against each other).
To finish off yesterday’s published rolling trackers:
Liaison 21-23 April
43-38-8-6 (42-39-8-6)
I quote from report:
“The Liberals continue to post the regional leads they need: up by 11 points in Atlantic Canada, 15 points ahead of the Bloc Québécois in Quebec (with the Conservatives at 23%), holding an 8-point lead in Ontario (unchanged from yesterday), and leading by 4 points in British Columbia.
With these regionals we would expect the Liberals to win a majority government.
There’s still time for the race to tighten further, and Ontario remains the key battleground to watch. If the Conservatives hope to prevent a Liberal majority, they’ll need to make gains there.”
Notable that Ontario didn’t change, but 8% was a decent lead anyway, however in line with other signals/pollsters suggesting a close-ish race here.
BTSayssays:
Friday, April 25, 2025 at 4:41 pm
Hello Nadia
Thanks for your comments. See also my reply to Entropy below.
“If you think my reading is selective what do you think of the claim of this poster? Which appears to have no alignment at all with what the polls are currently suggesting.
“I think it may be a Conservative minority win come Monday (Tues OZ time).””
Well firstly tbf Nadia wasn’t attempting to say polls were going one way or another like you, she was giving a (presumably gut feel) prediction, caveated by a ‘may be’.
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Actually i didn’t claim the polls were “going one way or another”. I was claiming they had been pretty stagnant for sometime.
Though my caveat was “suggests” not “may be”.
“Which really suggests there has been little change over the last few weeks.”
Suggest: “put forward for consideration.”
Has there been any significant poll movement in the last say 20 days?
Take Mainstream last two polls: 23rd CLP 43 Con 40 24th CLP 43 Con 41.
While 20 days ago on the 4th CLP 43 Con 40 5th CLP 42 Con 40
The pollsters are still polling similar numbers as they did in early April.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_Canadian_federal_election
Liberal won 160/338 seats in 2021, and Conservative For quick ref, here are provincial averages according to Eric Grenier for CBC (last updated 24 hours ago), against 2021 % and ridings won, by province:
ONTARIO (122 ridings)
Lib 47.2% (39.3%, 78/121 seats)
Con 39.4% (34.9%, 37 seats)
NDP 8.7% (17.8%, 5 seats)
Green 2.4% (2.2%, 1 seat)
PPC 1.6% (5.5%)
QUEBEC (78 ridings)
Lib 39.4% (33.6%, 35/78 seats)
Con 24.7% (18.6%, 10 seats)
NDP 8.7% (9.8%, 1 seat)
BQ 25.7% (32.1%, 32 seats)
Green 2.2% (1.5%, 0 seats)
PPC 1.3% (2.7%)
BRITISH COLUMBIA (43 ridings)
Lib 42.2% (27%, 15/42 seats)
Con 38.5% (33.2%, 13 seats)
NDP 13.3% (29.2%, 13 seats)
Green 3.9% (5.3%, 1 seat)
PPC 1.4% (4.9%)
ALBERTA (37 ridings)
Lib 28.6% (15.5%, 2/34 seats)
Con 59.0% (55.3%, 30 seats)
NDP 9.3% (19.1%, 2 seats)
Green 1.1% (0.9%, 0 seats)
PPC 1.7% (7.4%)
MANITOBA (14 ridings) and SASKATCHEWAN (14 ridings)
Lib 36.3% (27.9%, 4/14 seats AND 10.6%, 0/14 seats)
Con 46.8% (39.2%, 7 seats AND 59.0%, 14 seats)
NDP 11.1% (23.0%, 3 seats AND 21.1%, 0 seats)
Green 1.7% (1.7%/1.1%, 0 seats)
PPC 1.9% (7.6%/6.6%)
ATLANTIC CANADA – I can’t do 4 provinces in 1 line here! – so I’ll give the combined polling for ‘Atlantic’ followed by the 2021 results for each province:
Lib 55.5%
Con 35.0%
NDP 6.3%
Green 1.9%
PPC 0.9%
NOVA SCOTIA 2021 result:
Lib 42.3%, 8/11 seats
Con 29.4%, 3 seats
NDP 22.1%
Green 1.9%
PPC 4.0%
NEW BRUNSWICK 2021 result:
Lib 42.4%, 6/10 seats
Con 33.6%, 4 seats
NDP 11.9%
Green 5.2%
PPC 6.1%
NEWFOUNDLAND and LABRADOR 2021 result:
Lib 47.7%, 6/7 seats
Con 32.1%, 1 seat
NDP 17.4%
Green 0.0%
PPC 2.4%
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND 2021 result:
Lib 46.2%, 4/4 seats
Con 31.6%
NDP 9.2%
Green 9.6%
PPC 3.2%
NORTHERN CANADA (no polling) – results below:
Nunavut 36-17-48% (NDP win)
Yukon 33-26-22-4-14 (Lib win)
N-W Territories 38-14-32-2-12 (Lib win)
Entropy
You really are getting pernickety and making an offender for a word! My point was that Nadia wasn’t commenting on whether the polls were stagnant or had moved (that better for you?) she was making a quasi-prediction, presumably based on gut feel. That doesn’t mean she’s right, obviously.
Mainstreet is, well, Mainstreet – but there’s lots of other polls.
Have a good weekend. Be interesting to see final polls from everyone the next couple of days.
EDIT: sorry, beginning of my 6.02pm post should have said that Conservatives won 119 seats in 2021.
NDP won 25, Greens 2 and BQ 32.
Nadia et al
I think if Conservatives were going to pull out a winning minority strong enough to put them into government, against the odds / current polling averages, it would look something like the below (I have leant into the YouGov MRP heavily for assistance).
Ontario 65 seats (+28)
Quebec 14 seats (+ 4)
Nova Scotia 2 seats (-1)
New Brunswick 6 seats (+2)
PE Island 0 seats (NC)
Newf/Lab 3 seats (+2)
Manitoba 7 seats (NC)
Sask 13 seats (-1)
Alberta 34 seats (+4)
Brit Columbia 22 seats (+9)
= Canada 167 seats (+ 58, out of 343 not 338 this time)
This could be partly achieved by less inefficient vote spread that the MRP hints at, and partly by a slightly better polling showing than current averages.
But it’s hard to convince oneself that there could still be a race when I believe Trump may have just killed it off. Most likely scenario still Libs with 180+ seats and Cons up to 135 seats.
BTSayssays:
Friday, April 25, 2025 at 6:08 pm
Entropy
You really are getting pernickety and making an offender for a word! My point was that Nadia wasn’t commenting on whether the polls were stagnant or had moved (that better for you?) she was making a quasi-prediction, presumably based on gut feel. That doesn’t mean she’s right, obviously.
Mainstreet is, well, Mainstreet – but there’s lots of other polls.
Have a good weekend. Be interesting to see final polls from everyone the next couple of days.
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True, there are many polling companies in Canada. However, when I look at any of the ones that conduct regular polls, I don’t see any showing polling figures now that can’t be found similar for that polling company early in April. Obviously, their figures have jumped around, but it is hard to see any polling company that has shown any sustained, reliable movement in any direction during April.
Entropy
I agree, poll movements have rarely been dramatic during the campaign itself.
UK Mayor polling by YouGov 9-23 April
GREATER LINCOLNSHIRE
Andrea Jenkyns, Reform UK 40%
Rob Waltham, Conservative 25%
Jason Stockwood, Labour 15%
Sally Horscroft, Green 8%
Marianne Overton, Lincolnshire Independents 7%
Trevor Young, Lib Dem 5%
HULL and EAST YORKSHIRE
Luke Campbell, Reform UK 35%
Mike Ross, Lib Dem 21%
Margaret Pinder, Labour 20%
Anne Handley, Conservative 15%
Kerry Harrison, Green 7%
Rowan Halstead, Yorkshire Party 3%
WEST of ENGLAND
Mary Page, Green 27%
Helen Godwin, Labour 23%
Arron Banks, Reform UK 18%
Steve Smith, Conservative 17%
Oli Henman, Lib Dem 13%
Ian Scott, Independent 2%
CAMBRIDGESHIRE & PETERBOROUGH
Paul Bristow, Conservative 32%
Ryan Coogan, Reform UK 20%
Anna Smith, Labour 19%
Lorna Dupre, Lib Dem 18%
Bob Ensch, Green 10%
So, clear leads for Reform in 2 and Conservative in 1, and a narrower Green lead over three other parties in the other. I can’t see Conservative winning West of Eng but none of the other three above him would amaze me, although I expect Greens will actually win and it would cause shockwaves if Reform actually won that one due to differential turnout or something.
Yesterday’s published daily trackers for 22-24 April:
MAINSTREET 43-41-7-6 (43-40-9-5)
NANOS 43-38-8-6 (43-39-7-6)
LIAISON 44-39-8-6 (43-38-8-6)
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/52070-final-yougov-mrp-for-2025-canadian-federal-election-liberals-likely-to-win-majority-poll
I’m not particularly waving the flag for MRP polls, as their accuracy record is spotty (although improving over the years), but they are very interesting giving some intel you can’t get without specific seat polls – and their record is pretty spotty at times too! – more so at General Elections than by-elections for some reason (in the UK anyway), you’d think it’d be the other way round.
This final YouGov call gives (changes from 2021):
Lib 185 (+25)
Con 135 (+16)
NDP 3 (-22)
BQ 18 (-14)
Green 2 (NC)
Having had a detailed look at the excel again, points to note in terms of changes from the one earlier in the week:
* Overall picture very similar but. . .
* Vote is largely coalescing around the ‘big 2’ – it won’t be amazing if NDP and BQ both do even worse than the above numbers come election night. Greens vote seems a bit more unique where they hold seats, they seem more able to withstand change elections – this is very similar to FPTP elections in the UK as well, I guess they’re fairly similar entities. (I may get egg on my face when Greens lose both seats on election night)
* Lots of churn in swing seats in Ontario, but no decisive further swing to Conservatives. Their silver lining is that there are still 20 ridings where Lib are predicted to win by 6% or lower margin, so a relatively minor poll miss could put most of this in the Con column on top of the 42 Ontario seats they’re projected to win. NB There are also 11 ridings where Con are projected to win by 6% or lower margin, so they could fall as low as 30 / 122 in Ontario.
* Although there has been lots of news about Poilievre being in danger in his seat of Carleton and nothing about Carney’s seat of Nepean, this MRP suggests Poilievre is up by 19% whereas Carney (in the next door seat!) is only leading Con by 8% so is more under threat of not winning his seat. Jagmeet Singh has no realistic chance of holding Burnaby Central for NDP (stand by for more egg on face. . .). Greens c0-leader Elizabeth May now predicted to hold her seat.
* Cons are definitely up a bit in Quebec, with Lib and BQ swinging around all over the place – but there are limited gains to be had in seats for Cons without a further big jump up.
* Cons definitely up a bit where it matters in Atlantic, still well behind Lib but could now make gains vs. 2021.
* Definitely a bit of Con to Lib movement in BC, as well as further NDP to Lib. Fewer seats now look ‘in reach’ for Cons. Maybe Carney’s latest visit there has been fruitful.
* Alberta – Libs now projected up to win one more riding – but there is also enough movement to Cons in the other 3 ridings that Cons are NOT projected to win, that a clean sweep of 37/37 for Cons in Alberta is not implausible – the furthest behind is 10% in one Edmonton seat, an improvement on earlier in the week.