Nine Newspapers has the final Resolve Strategic poll for the campaign, which credits Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, in from 53.5-46.5 at the last poll two weeks ago. The primary votes are Labor 31% (steady), Coalition 35% (up one), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation 7% (up one). As invariably occurs after the closure of nominations, when the response options reflect the ballot paper rather than generic categories, there has been a substantial drop for independents, down four to 8%. Anthony Albanese is up one on both approval and disapproval, to 46% and 44%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 33% and up four to 57%. The gap on preferred prime minister is unchanged, Albanese’s lead shifting from 46-30 to 47-31. The poll also found 30% holding that Donald Trump made them less likely to vote Coalition compared with 15% for more likely, compared with 21% apiece for Labor. It was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 2010 “using a combination of online and telephone polling of a representative sample of the broader voting public” — I believe the telephone component adds around 400 to its normal online sample of around 1600.
Elsewhere, the Financial Review leads today with a report that JWS Research seat polling shows right-wing minor party voters favouring the Coalition on preferences in far greater degree than usual, specifically by 90% in Whitlam and Werriwa and 85% in the rather different milieu of Ryan. Such numbers help explain the Coalition’s bullishness about “a certain demographic of seats — outer suburban, mortgage-belt electorates with blue-collar workforces, substantial commute times, high cost-of-living sensitivities, and, in some cases, high crime rates”, most notably Whitlam and Gorton, where the Liberals claim their polling recently had them slightly ahead. Right-wing minor parties are said to be “collectively polling above 10%” in such seats, a none too radical claim – at the last election, One Nation and the United Australia Party polled between 12.3% and 14.9% between them in Bruce, Holt, Gorton, Hawke, Whitlam and Werriwa.
Preference flows are another matter: across the six seats just mentioned, Labor received 45.0% of preferences from One Nation 41.7% from United Australia. Labor would lose around 3% from their margins if that were to drop to 20%, assuming a stable One Nation and United Australia vote. It may certainly be the case that factors are at play here specific to outer suburban demography, and One Nation preferences have certainly become stronger for the Coalition over time. However, the notion of a sudden seismic movement is discouraged by the findings of YouGov, which has been registering respondent-allocated preference flows as part of its massive MRP surveys and using them to project two-party preferred results from its regular national polling. On this basis, One Nation votes are being split 67-33 in the Coalition’s favour – only modestly wider than the 64.3-35.7 recorded at the 2022 election.
Today’s instalment of Chart of the Day is an update of last week’s effort tracking the volume of early voting in comparison with 2022. Impressive daily numbers have fuelled reportage of an historic upsurge, but this partly reflects the limitation of opportunities resulting from Easter Monday and Anzac Day. The third of these charts puts things in proper perspective by recording cumulative early voting as a share of enrolment, which stood at 19.2% as of the close of Monday, compared with 17.9% at the same point in 2022.
pied piper at 10.47 pm
The Greens overtook P. Dutton in the art of pretending there is “plenty of time” until voting, by holding their campaign launch in Wills today, fully 10 days after the Labor + Lib launches.
Hung Parliament ridden by A Bandt was an early favourite until the race.
India takes Taliban on its side, pushes Pak into corner after Pahalgam
As Pakistan is scrambling to shield itself diplomatically and militarily, India has quietly reached out to Kabul, Islamabad’s worst friend-turned-foe. With this smart tactical move, India further cornered Pakistan after the Pahalgam terror attack. The Taliban have condemned the dastardly terror attack.
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/india-diplomats-meet-afghanistan-taliban-kabul-takes-them-on-side-before-military-offensive-on-pakistan-2717428-2025-04-30
”
An Indian delegation visited Kabul on Monday, where it met the Taliban’s top leadership and discussed “recent regional developments”, pushing Pakistan further into the corner.
The Indian diplomatic trip to Kabul comes just days after Pakistan’s foreign minister Ishaq Dar visited Afghanistan following a year of strained ties marked by border disputes, terror allegations, and the mass deportation of Afghan refugees by Islamabad.
With Islamabad rushing its officials to world capitals, tucking terrorists into bunkers, pleading for neutral probes, shifting air defence to the border, and unleashing relentless cross-border fire, Pakistan has turned panicistan. Kabul’s overtures to New Delhi would add to Islamabad’s jitters.
Soc
Pyne chose his successor. Say what anyone likes about him but Pyne certainly turned up. Almost too much. Esp with all the opposition to him, his style etc. He is very smart. I’d have him with me in a war.
I’m surprised his successor has been so poor.
D&M
Trump was the magnifying glass for the media and voting public. That was fatal as it should have been. I genuinely believe Dutton would be favourite now if Harris won.
It’s getting ugly on the US futures last thing Dutton needs.Its overdue for a hit.
WA today has got a list of all parties /candidates Facebook spend this election.In WA.
Labor 2 libs 3 who was first?
Chaney By a long stretch.
Dow futures slide 300 points after data shows economy contracted last quarter: Live updates
https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/04/29/stock-market-today-live-updates.html?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17460194675963&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2025%2F04%2F29%2Fstock-market-today-live-updates.html
“Stock futures fell on Wednesday to wrap up a volatile April after data showed the U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter as President Donald Trump’s flurry of policy moves, especially on trade, weighed on business sentiment.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures shed 351 points, or 0.8%. S&P 500 futures were off 1.3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures lost 1.8%.
First quarter gross domestic product declined at a 0.3% rate, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday, a rapid reversal from a 2.4% increase in the fourth quarter. Imports surged by 41% in the last quarter, subtracting from GDP, as companies sought to get ahead of Trump’s global trade fight.
”
Dutton is Trump mini-me.
And the tariffs haven’t really kicked in yet.
Dio
Whilst I did not like Pyne’s politics and his various false promises about sub construction jobs still rankle me, he was intelligent and did as you say, turn up. He spoke publicly often. I heard him speak at public events. He defended policy.
Stevens was Pyne’s staffer (COS?) and is always well dressed and polite. But he simply does not get around the electorate. He has done nothing for it in six years. I have never once heard him speak at any public event in that time. I have met him at polling booths doing HTVs. He is always polite but completely un-engaged with the electorate. He is a bench warmer. I have never seen him door knocking either.
This sums up the LNP for me. After Dutton took over the leadership from Morrison in 2022 and stated that there would be no change in policy settings (ie we are staying out on the right and not retreating back to the centre) I thought that was political madness. Adopting a nuclear policy and going all the way Trump was signing his own political death warrant.
Amazed that USA GDP figure was negative 0.3 – Trump had to work really hard for that!
Now watch while he blames Biden’s first 20 days in January for this outcome.
Or I suppose just calls the number ‘fake news’ and demands the arrest and imprisonment or deportation to El Salvador of the public servants responsible for putting the figure together.
Re US GDP. The down factors were imports, due to pre tariff surge. And cuts to govt spending. So actually a surprisingly good figure for the domestic private economy.
Next Qtr imports will plummet (even if Trump flips again) reversing that drag on GDP, but domestic economy will start to sag as lack of imports hit importers, transport and retail.
And right on cue !!!
*****************
“President Donald Trump on Wednesday blamed his predecessor and defended his sweeping tariffs after new data showed the U.S. economy contracting last quarter, while warning that his promised “boom” will “take a while.”
“This is [former President Joe] Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s. I didn’t take over until January 20th,” Trump said in a Truth Social post.”
******************
bryon
So pencil in July 30, day of second quarter USA GDP figure release, as the day the ‘Trumpcession’ is officially called.
That’s an excellent table King O’Malley. You’re behind Social Change Media right? I’m looking forward to finding out the post election variant. (But I doubt it’s about keeping Gina happy. I’m convinced it’s because Dutton and Liberal hardliners are spending more time looking at American dynamics than the country in front of them.)
Felix, yes.
Slightly improved version.
King O’Malley – the thing with that nice logical table explanation of why the Libs are fucking electorally nuts to persist with hard right leaders is it runs up against something which came up in a conversation here on PB about religion on the weekend.
Right wingers aren’t interested in the opinions of left wingers and centrists on what principles they should espouse, just as Christians aren’t interested in the opinions of non-believers about how well they follow the teachings of Christ.
It also doesn’t help they have the very real example of Scott Morrison taking the party further right than Turnbull and then doing better than Turnbull
Update to my prediction:
2PP 50.8 to Labor
Result Majority Labor gov.
Will probably post a seat range update and maybe more later.
Christopher Pyne is a very virile and masculine man.
Arkysays:
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 12:22 am…
Agree. It’s the religious right (eg Alex Hawke in NSW) who took over the Liberal Party. It’s blind faith that keeps them out there on the right. They probably saw the Morrison win in 2019 as manifest destiny and their current travails as necessary to walk through the valley of death to reach the promised land where vengeance will be meted out to left infidels.
After 2022 I thought the Teals would be a reverse DLP for the LNP, potentially keeping them out of power for a long time. What’s happened since has only stregthened my view.
King OMalley
Great table – the pedant in me wants 12-15 on the left to line up with the same seats on the right!
I am hoping all those Independents win, plus a few more – hopefully Wannon, Cowper and Bradfield.
An insurmountable wall for the Coalition – eventually after more election losses they may realise they have to change. I’d be quite happy if, inspired by the likes of SkyNews, they don’t change course but instead keep going down further into their current rabbit hole.
PS – I also liked your analogy about ‘run rate required’. I think it has been shown that prepoll votes are roughly in line with what he current state of polling was at the time (relative to what those prepoll voters would have chosen). Thus Labor’s very late surge in the recent Queensland state election helped them on Election Day but not so much in prepolls. So Labor being 52-53 on TPP throughout the prepoll weeks this time can only help them.
Ven: link:”Stock futures fell on Wednesday to wrap up a volatile April after data showed the U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter as President Donald Trump’s flurry of policy moves, especially on trade, weighed on business sentiment.”
I hate it when they do that. No, actually, business sentiment isn’t down in the US. Yet. What happened is that there was a large import surplus because companies were filling their inventories before the tariffs took effect. Business investment actually grew quite significantly in the last quarter.
But. The tariffs haven’t even close to hit yet, because they haven’t really affected US consumers. Yet. They’re already contracting, but they might even get into a positive GDP next quarter, as that pre-tariff investment corrects. That’s when you start seeing people paying 5%, 10%, or 20% more for their business expenses as suppliers need to replace their inventories. Companies lay off people. Consumers spend less. This stuff doesn’t happen overnight. I remember the GFC staying up at night to watch the ‘crash’ and seeing the US fed lower interest rates by 0.75% in one emergency meeting. That announcement happened as the market opened right before it was expected to crash in epic proportions. This was January 2008. The first parts of the crisis were already underway in late 2007. Lehmans didn’t fail until another three months after, in March. The real crisis hit then, almost six months after it started.
But no, the GDP didn’t go down because of sentiment. It’s lazy reporting. It went down because of increased imports before the tariffs.
This is not good for Laxale.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-mp-s-dad-in-homophobic-outburst-at-polling-booth-20250430-p5lvj3.html
I mean what the fuck was his Dad thinking?
@Been There,
Jerome is not his father – voters will recognise that.
Scott Yung’s many faults (as aired in the media) are all his own.
King O’Malley……good analysis of the Liberal Party’s possible 2025 election fortunes….
Unfortunately in your seat tabulation I don’t see mention of the Victorian seat of Deakin held by Liberal member Michael Sukkar on a margin of 0.02% over the ALP. Given the bad opinion polling of the Liberals one would think Sukkar will be shown the door out of Parliament by voters in Deakin on 3 May 2025
King O’Malley……good analysis of the Liberal Party’s possible 2025 election fortunes….
Unfortunately in your seat tabulation I don’t see mention of the Victorian seat of Deakin held by Liberal member Michael Sukkar on a margin of 0.02% over the ALP. Given the bad opinion polling of the Liberals one would think Sukkar will be shown the door out of Parliament by voters in Deakin on 3 May 2025
The Reactionaries campaign to and for each other. They are divorced from the opinions, values, interests and experiences of most people in this country, and moreover have no wish to learn about them. Consequently they are concerned only with proving to each other how pure they are in doctrinal terms.
They are no longer a mass party, nor do they wish to be one. They are an ideological silo in possession of an aging and badly compromised brand.
This appears to have led them to the point where they no longer have a pathway to power. Whether or not this is the case will become clear on Saturday. If so, we will be able to conclude that the Liberal Party and its clones will have outlived their usefulness. There really will be no point to them at all.
Liberals don’t have much choice in moving to the centre. Just about every remaining leadership contendor would be from the far right. Angus Taylor would be as bad as Dutton. Hastie is Dutton just slightly “more handsome” so he might get back a fraction of a percent of the female vote. Who else? Susan Ley for next PM you’ve got to be kidding
Been there 12:44am 1 May.
Simon Yung has far more problems on multiple fronts than Jerome has with his father’s comments comments of 3 years. Living in the seat Yung lost this election 4 weeks ago. Most don’t like him, think he’s a spiv. I can tell you the Liberal booth captain said far worse things at the prepoll centre I voted at last week than the comments of Jerome’s father.
New thread.