Nine Newspapers has the final Resolve Strategic poll for the campaign, which credits Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, in from 53.5-46.5 at the last poll two weeks ago. The primary votes are Labor 31% (steady), Coalition 35% (up one), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation 7% (up one). As invariably occurs after the closure of nominations, when the response options reflect the ballot paper rather than generic categories, there has been a substantial drop for independents, down four to 8%. Anthony Albanese is up one on both approval and disapproval, to 46% and 44%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 33% and up four to 57%. The gap on preferred prime minister is unchanged, Albanese’s lead shifting from 46-30 to 47-31. The poll also found 30% holding that Donald Trump made them less likely to vote Coalition compared with 15% for more likely, compared with 21% apiece for Labor. It was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 2010 “using a combination of online and telephone polling of a representative sample of the broader voting public” — I believe the telephone component adds around 400 to its normal online sample of around 1600.
Elsewhere, the Financial Review leads today with a report that JWS Research seat polling shows right-wing minor party voters favouring the Coalition on preferences in far greater degree than usual, specifically by 90% in Whitlam and Werriwa and 85% in the rather different milieu of Ryan. Such numbers help explain the Coalition’s bullishness about “a certain demographic of seats — outer suburban, mortgage-belt electorates with blue-collar workforces, substantial commute times, high cost-of-living sensitivities, and, in some cases, high crime rates”, most notably Whitlam and Gorton, where the Liberals claim their polling recently had them slightly ahead. Right-wing minor parties are said to be “collectively polling above 10%” in such seats, a none too radical claim – at the last election, One Nation and the United Australia Party polled between 12.3% and 14.9% between them in Bruce, Holt, Gorton, Hawke, Whitlam and Werriwa.
Preference flows are another matter: across the six seats just mentioned, Labor received 45.0% of preferences from One Nation 41.7% from United Australia. Labor would lose around 3% from their margins if that were to drop to 20%, assuming a stable One Nation and United Australia vote. It may certainly be the case that factors are at play here specific to outer suburban demography, and One Nation preferences have certainly become stronger for the Coalition over time. However, the notion of a sudden seismic movement is discouraged by the findings of YouGov, which has been registering respondent-allocated preference flows as part of its massive MRP surveys and using them to project two-party preferred results from its regular national polling. On this basis, One Nation votes are being split 67-33 in the Coalition’s favour – only modestly wider than the 64.3-35.7 recorded at the 2022 election.
Today’s instalment of Chart of the Day is an update of last week’s effort tracking the volume of early voting in comparison with 2022. Impressive daily numbers have fuelled reportage of an historic upsurge, but this partly reflects the limitation of opportunities resulting from Easter Monday and Anzac Day. The third of these charts puts things in proper perspective by recording cumulative early voting as a share of enrolment, which stood at 19.2% as of the close of Monday, compared with 17.9% at the same point in 2022.
Steve777 – It is not exactly get a wide run in much of the international press either. Nothing in the UK guardian, FT, NY times…
Perhaps it is because it happens to flare up every 5 years or so and then calms down.
Upnorth at 8.53 pm
Re LDL it is more complex since it comprises two different types.
See the book by Dr Robert Lustig, Metabolical, for an explanation.
Re Leichhardt, there was a segment on 7.30 tonight. Entsch said he is retiring because he can’t handle the new technology- phones and all that.
The Lib candidate is a RW nutter who is as comfortable with the media as a pineapple is to sit on.
Matt Smith by contrast has a serious profile and should win it for Labor.
It’s fifty years ago today since the fall of South Vietnam. It’s 60 years and one day since Robert Menzies announced that Australia would be sending a battalion (~ 800 troops) to Vietnam.
Pakistan-India getting a WIDE run in the last 24 hours (via a google search):
CNN
BBC
Reuters
Guardian
New York Times
Al Jazeera
South China Morning Post
CBS
clem attleesays:
Wednesday, April 30, 2025 at 8:09 pm
Entropy wrote, “Yes , in the state TPP, the 30% line should be the 50% line. It is also a very interesting result for Victoria, which seems to show a TPP for Victoria above 55%. This would indicate a swing to Labor in Victoria from the 2022 results of around 1%. It is very bad for the LNP, who will lose seats if that occurs . Additionally, the trend in Victoria has been to swing more to Labor in the inner city than in the outer city in recent times . This means Deakin and Menzies are much at risk, and Labor could hold Aston.”
Aston is an eastern outer suburban seat.
====================================================
Maybe I worded it badly. By “inner city,” I meant well-established suburbs versus new growth corridors. If you look at the last Victorian election, Dan Andrews actually had a swing against him but picked up more seats, as he received a small swing in areas where the Federal seats of Aston, Menzies, and Deakin are located. Meanwhile, he experienced a bigger swing against him in areas with Federal seats like McEwan and Casey.
Dr D, any views on India v Pakistan.
Fro me the worrying thing about India v Pakistan this time has been the speed and thoroughness of the escalation on both sides.
India is using the retention of Indus water as a major hit which will directly affect food production in a country which already suffers from widespread hunger.
There have been performative exchanges of cross border fire but neither side appears to have been willing to allow these to escalate beyond the public performance level.
Of considerable interest would be to know what back-channel work is being done by Xi, ATM. Trump and the US are obviously out of the picture.
That would be Tony Blair. The former Labour PM.
Open your eyes bludgers..
. is that the same Tony Blair.. born again christian, with sex legs, that shaged Rupert’s wife?
A man of impeccable credentials & expertise.. NOT
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, April 30, 2025 at 9:14 pm
Hi Upnorth, welcome back. I trust that the Trump tariffs are not going to stuff Thailand up too badly and I also trust your brief return augurs well for Saturday night.
The booing of Dutton was, IMO, good natured. He was in among a mob of lubricated blokes in the RSL who were obviously favourably disposed to Dutton.
They started chanting for Dutton to do a shooey. Dutton probably had flashes of Abbott chewing an onion and wisely refused to do a shooey. This triggered a bit of booing.
中华人民共和国
Hi Mr Boerwar – trust your doing well. Thailand has been hit with a 36% tariff and frankly it will hurt many poor people.
I understand the Townsville RSL was more in jest but my Old Man who was there and of course he likes to put the boot in.
Welcome back Upnorth.
Re India and Pakistan, it’s not the first time they’ve had skirmishes over that border and neither is insane enough to want to throw nukes into it. Not for Kashmir.
Upnorth – A Labor Partisan @ #680 Wednesday, April 30th, 2025 – 8:53 pm
Well it sounds like you’re fighting fit and well up to a trip south to throw a few back with us.
Shame you’ve lost your voting rights though. WTF? That is seriously whacked.
I didn’t think Boothby would flip. I hope not. That would be disappointing.
Teals could be a chance in Flinders too.
Upnorth
Haha. More strength to his kicking leg.
Boerwar
I’d agree with your points on India Pakistan and add the following – there are far fewer constraints on India now than in the past. Likewise Modi has made a career out of posturing as India’s nationalist leader. Very hard for him to back down.
US power relative to India has shrunk considerably. India has probably realised that if USA can’t stop the Houthis in the Red Sea, there is very little they could do to stop India, which is orders of magnitude more powerful. And they would certainly ignore China.
If Pakistan is smart they should hand over any terrorists they have in their possession on their side of the border ASAP. But nationalistic politicians are in plentiful supply on the Pakistani side of the border too.
AFR: Liberal candidate for Bennelong Scott Yung has distanced himself from Peter Dutton, as revealed in online messages from his mother to supporters and at a pre-polling site where witnesses heard him tell at least one voter the opposition leader would “not be there forever”.
Hh
A bit of a wild card is candidate Yung.
Yung is the “hey little girl want a choccy” one yeah
Is he still living at home? How bizarre.
Upnorth – A Labor Partisansays:
Wednesday, April 30, 2025 at 8:25 pm
ScromoII says:
Wednesday, April 30, 2025 at 8:20 pm
SNIP
*****
Geez cobber what rock did you crawl out from under? William going soft in his old age with racial bigots and homophobes?
===================================================
WB is probably very busy at the moment, though he has deleted the offending post.
Not like Bennelong is an important seat for ’em or anything
Dio
Always, and I cannot think of a single instance where the destruction of a democracy has not led to a totalitarian or autocratic regime – and these always turn into kleptocracies (and worse), because, no checks and balances.
I was going to add a list from the 20th century, but most of us here know all about these coups / revolutions.
Now to your first comment
I think Trump just focussed peoples minds on the fact that elections do have consequences, and that you cannot assume that each side will expect the conventions of democracy, as in the past.
But I also think that when people looked at Dutton, once he came into view as the alternative PM, they became concerned on a number of grounds, and trustworthiness was a big one. They looked at his record, rather than what he was saying now to be expedient (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-30/coalition-bus-whitlam-aged-care-soft-voters-peter-dutton/105228352), and did not trust his current utterances.
It was not nuclear per se, I think, but his insistence that it would be cheaper than the renewable transition that is well underway, that turned people off.
And, of course, it was pretty obvious that severe spending cuts would be needed, which might affect health and education.
But the big one: No more woking from home. Most people with a young family and two working parents rely on this. And if it disappears, they are up for more costs in childcare and travel than they can sustain in a high-cost-of-living environment. They would lose their houses.
Was it only the Public Service that would be affected? Jane Hume said “No” when she introduced this policy. She wanted it applied to every sector:
Unveiling a Liberal proposal to end work from home for public servants made Jane Hume think of her son.
Over summer, when she was passing the city building of the major company where he was doing an internship, she had texted to see if he could meet her for a coffee.
He couldn’t: He was working from home.
“What? It’s an internship. Who works at home in an internship?” she had asked.
At the unnamed company, it turned out, nobody worked from the office on a Monday.
“Let’s hope that that’s one of the organisations that instils the sense of discipline that we want to instil in the public service,” she joked to the audience at the Liberal-aligned Menzies think tank.
The Coalition’s policy, which it dumped on Monday, was limited to the public service.
But Labor would draw the same link as Hume had between public and private, telling voters that work from home would be at risk for everybody if a Dutton government followed through on its promise.
That link resonated with voters, according to YouGov polling, Liberal Party internal research and the perception of Liberal candidates and volunteers.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-08/work-from-home-created-trouble-in-dozens-of-seats/105146686
My impression of the Australian Electorate now is that it is well educated – probably thanks to most people completing six years of high school.
The “low information voter” cohort – they were real – are disappearing with the boomers. They exist in other age cohorts, but they became a smaller and smaller percentage as the years pass.
And this is also why younger voters are looking for more choice, and deciding on factors other than how their parents voted.
As everyone here knows, I still think Labor offers the best outcomes for what is important to me, and I will be handing out for Tanya P on polling day.
But I am sure that our more sophisticated and better educated electorate is a plus for democracy.
Trump Says He Could Free Abrego Garcia From El Salvador, but Won’t
Trump’s comments undermined previous statements by his top aides and were a blunt sign of his administration’s intention to double down and defy the courts.
Meanwhile everyone including SCOTUS is trying to define “ facilitate” what a bunch of idiots
Now watch the Supreme Court turn to jelly & say yes Mt President do as you please , where do you want us to tickle you
Dr Doolittle says:
Wednesday, April 30, 2025 at 9:17 pm
Upnorth at 8.53 pm
Re LDL it is more complex since it comprises two different types.
See the book by Dr Robert Lustig, Metabolical, for an explanation.
Re Leichhardt, there was a segment on 7.30 tonight. Entsch said he is retiring because he can’t handle the new technology- phones and all that.
The Lib candidate is a RW nutter who is as comfortable with the media as a pineapple is to sit on.
Matt Smith by contrast has a serious profile and should win it for Labor.
中华人民共和国
Dr D. Yes. There is the little LDL and the bigger one – I think the little one is more bad. Sorry for my inprecise terms. But my HDL is good and LDL now at 60. 20 mg Statin at night and 10 mg Ezetimibe in the morning (combination was making my stomach a bit painful). Lots of advocados, green vegies some nuts and less meat (and grog).
On Leichhardt looking close and veery good chance. The Labor Candidate is a big tall guy who plays Basketball for the Taipans – think Dan Repacholi.
Herbert is a big no no. No real Labor campaign and they were surprised Dutton was there ANZAC Day. Crisafulli was there also for the Dawn Service.
Boerwar at 8:58 pm
I think the ALP needs to shift its thinking away from viewing the Teals as a problem to be mitigated by one on one negotiation, and instead view them as a tremendous potential asset, as the DLP was for the coalition from 1955 to the demise of the party at the 1974 election. If the Teals become a more or less permanent bloc in the House of Representatives, it’s going to be as hard for the coalition to get back into power in its own right as it was for Labor from 1949 to 1972. And if Labor treats the Teals really well, they will be much more likely to be helpful if Labor needs their support to sustain government in the future. And the consolidation of the Teals, if it happens, will give rise to an almighty internal brawl in the coalition, as they fight over whether Dutton took them too far the to right, or not far enough. (I’m looking forward to hearing what Malcolm Turnbull will have to say on this.)
I’d add that that Teals and the Greens are different kettles of fish. I’ve seen far less evidence of game playing by the Teals. But the ALP doesn’t help the country when it shows a preference for bad policy agreed with the coalition, such as a toothless, opaque NACC, rather than good policy which the independents would support.
One more thing to note is that because of the inroads made by the Teals, the Liberals are now terribly short of safe seats (TPPV > 60%). As distinct from the NP, QLD LNP and NT CLP, there are only five safe Liberal seats nationwide, and only two in metropolitan areas (both in Sydney: Mitchell and Cook). That makes it very difficult to bring in top flight recruits like Bob Ellicott. Labor has 36 safe seats.
UpNorth, welcome back mate!
I will certainly down more than a few beers if the good guys win on Saturday.
Commercial TV tonight – swamped with Dutton ads. All quite forgettable.
The Libs are clearly trying to keep the base intact and combine that with the One Nation idiots, gone are the days when John Howard told voters to put Pauline Hanson last.
Mostly Interested
Thanks a million for running the book
Labor 78 Coalition 54 Greens 4 Independents 14
2PP Labor 52.6 Coalition 47.4
Very happy to find the Aus Embassy in Tokyo today to help get Fiona Phillips across the line, so as she is number 77, I reckon ALP will go at least one better.
Hey Upnorth old cobber.
Good to see you again.
What would a Federal election be like without your insights?
I’ve got my bottle of sugar cane champagne ready for Saturday night as well.
It’s going to be a good one!
Entropy says:
Wednesday, April 30, 2025 at 9:39 pm
Upnorth – A Labor Partisansays:
Wednesday, April 30, 2025 at 8:25 pm
ScromoII says:
Wednesday, April 30, 2025 at 8:20 pm
SNIP
*****
Geez cobber what rock did you crawl out from under? William going soft in his old age with racial bigots and homophobes?
===================================================
WB is probably very busy at the moment, though he has deleted the offending post.
中华人民共和国
WB is a good stick and he runs a tight ship. I’m forever thankful to him for keeping this site afloat.
Aston is an eastern outer suburban seat.
_______________________________
more like middle ring suburbs these days. These AEC geographic codes are a little all over the place. Flinders is classified as rural. Which it probably is for the 500 hobby farmers. I suggest a new classification ‘Coastal’. Not outer suburban, not rural or provincial.
I am guessing Scott Yung will be abandoned now by Dutton HQ
Like many Liberal candidates, candidate Scott Yung for Bennelong has a huge ad strategically place near a main road, or in his case across it, attached to a pedestrian bridge across the main road through Ryde.
good to see you upNorth. Hope all is well.
Confessions @ #665 Wednesday, April 30th, 2025 – 8:34 pm
Yes we do! It was an epic day! 😀
Upnorth – A Labor Partisan @ #657 Wednesday, April 30th, 2025 – 8:28 pm
Definitely! You may need to be around for an epic wedding celebration. 😉
Upnorth
A PB excursion! I am definitely in on that.
Democracy Sausage – have a snag and a beer cobber. Bloody Tory ads. Remeber my Nana would only swear on two occasions- playing Canasta being one and see a Joh ad being the other.
Night all – I’m off to Kanchanaburi tomorrow. The River Kwai (Kwai in Thai actually means “River” so we Farangs are calling it River River which does confuse the locals).
Thanks for everyone saying G’Day. I will try to check in during the week but Saturday night will be a goer – win lose or draw.
Confessions @ #676 Wednesday, April 30th, 2025 – 8:43 pm
Late June + special guest 😉
Nath old mate how are you? Still owe you a Crownie. I
Tried the Ganja for me sleep – went to a Traditional Thai Medicine Quack. Gave me the hee bee jee bees . But plenty of it around matey for when you get up. Thanks for the shout out cobber. Be starting to get cold in Melbourne I guess.
Omar Comin’
Well, that qualifies as a train wreck.
Thanks!!
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, April 30, 2025 at 9:55 pm
Confessions @ #676 Wednesday, April 30th, 2025 – 8:43 pm
Fess’ (despite her faux protestations).
Hey!
C@t is organising the next catch up for after the election – probably June or July. Meher baba has also said he will come if it suits his schedule.
Late June + special guest
中华人民共和国
Strewth – looks like I’ll be down late June – the special guest and wedding talk has me intrigued.
Talking about weddings, Edwina St John never took me up on the visit to Bobawabba – setting for Chad Morgans’ famous “Bobawabba Wedding”. Chad sadly passing on the first day of this year aged 91.
Q: I’m not convinced LMF is home in Boothby.
Can someone please explain why Louise Miller Frost is a ‘hopeless’ candidate?
She has a undergraduate and 2 Masters degrees, has a history as CE of a homeless women service and is a former CEO of St Vincent de Paul SA…and is on numerous boards.
When my partner had immigration issues, her office sorted it out quickly and tirelessly.
Would of thought she was an ideal candidate for any party?
BT at 11.28 am, Mostly Interested at 12.46 pm
Very significant point re the margin in Braddon. Also relevant there is that C Garland is now in Tassie parliament and Lambie network has vacated the Reps contest, meaning a lot of voters who went elsewhere in 2022 are now looking to choose between Lib or Lab more directly than they did in 2022.
There was a segment on News 24 from an ABC journo who pointed out two things: Braddon is the poorest electorate by average in Tassie, and also the least educated by a mile.
First of those factors favours Labor. The second is a complicating factor for Labor but Dutton is born to rule, in terms of his attitude toward others.
As the campaign concludes, only the two southern Tassie seats are safe.
Wilkie is obviously safe in Clark. Julie Collins is most probably safe because of enough Lib prefs if it looks close, i.e. if P George gets a lot of votes.
Many people have regarded Lyons as the most marginal seat, but that view ignores Rebecca White’s standing as an incumbent and the general trend toward Labor on the mainland. No reason why that trend is not in Tassie.
Historically the two most volatile seats have been Bass and Braddon. While Braddon is more likely to go to Labor, because the margin is inflated, and the Labor candidate has more credibility than the Liberal one there, the shambles of Dutton’s campaign means Archer is not safe in Bass.
Usually the trends in Tassie become clearer earlier (since less electors). Lib problems in both Braddon and Bass could be an early sign of an impending Labor majority, although that could occur with only one win.
d-money par avion comrade
Holdenhillbilly @ #715 Wednesday, April 30th, 2025 – 9:27 pm
And neither will Scott Yung. 😐
Simon Yung is also claiming the campaign against him by the SMH is borderline racist. Well when you can’t say where the money is from a fund-raiser and don’t declare it. Buddy up to a CCP operative with links to Huang Xaingno, call someone with more than diverse findings at ICAC hard done by, refuse to answer questions at a rally then leve by the back door to avoid scrutiny. Hand out easter eggs outside a school gate but not seek permission first. None of that is racist, they are serious questions on how he operates. We could add the proud Ryde resident whe he only moved into the area after he was preselected and had no links to the area beforehand.
His campaign has been telling people what they want him to have him believe about him even though little of it is true. To be honest, his campaign was unravelling about four weeks ago. His spiv in a suit routine is not impressing anyone both Labor and Liberal voters. He has been distancing himself from Dutton for while even though he was his captains pick. Hopefully on Saturday it will be the last we see of him in Bennelong.
“Well, that qualifies as a train wreck. Thanks!!”
Typical Win-news Hate Media.
lol, Olivia Blunden from the newsroom will go far.
Peter Dutton, an small egg that dreamed of being a fierce eagle and leader of little birds, but will remain forever just a stinking rotting hard boiled egg.
Albo overtook Whitlam today for PM Longevity.
USA economy just announced shrank in first three months of this year.
Thank goodness for the media blackout! No more Trumpet of Trump Parrots ads!