Federal miscellany: election timing and latest polls (open thread)

Cyclone Alfred potentially to thwart April 12 election plans; federal polling for South Australia; and the regular Essential Research and Roy Morgan results.

A report in Nine Newspapers yesterday quoted “a pair of ministers” expressing the view that Cyclone Alfred may, depending on its severity, deter the Prime Minister from calling an April 12 election on Sunday. Simon Benson of The Australian notes the optics of an election announcement would be particularly troublesome if, as appears likely, the most heavily affected areas encompass Peter Dutton’s own seat of Dickson. That would lock the government into a March 25 budget and an election in May – unless, as Benson notes, it pursued the no less optically troublesome path of extending the campaign to six weeks and holding the election on May 3.

On the poll front, the fortnightly Essential Research records little change on voting intention, with an increased Coalition result among women cancelling out a drop among men. Labor is down a point to 29% with the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation down one to 8%. The Coalition nudges ahead on the 2PP+ measure, now leading 48-47 after a 48-48 result last time. Leadership ratings that normally come monthly are included for the second fortnight in a row, with Anthony Albanese down two on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 49%, while Peter Dutton is steady on 41% and down one to 44%.

A question on firmness of voting intention reflects other polling in finding Coalition voters more likely to profess certainty in their intention (65% compared with 31% for “might change my mind” and 4% for “not yet decided”) than Labor voters (52%, 39% and 9%). Respondents were divided on the likely outcome, 29% apiece expecting Labor the Coalition to win a majority, with 22% for a Labor minority and 21% for a Coalition minority. A regular pre-election question on voting method finds more than ever planning to vote early (31%, up from 24% in the May 2022 survey), with election day down three points to 35% and postal down five to 19%. A monthly national mood indicator is slightly improved on a weak result last time, 34% holding that the country is heading in the right direction (up three) compared with 49% for the wrong track (down two).

DemosAU now has federal results for the South Australian poll for which state results were published earlier in the week. The poll shows Labor with a two-party lead in the state of 53-47, a swing to the Coalition of 1% compared with 2022. The primary votes are Labor 34% (34.5% at the election), Coalition 35% (35.7%), Greens 11% (12.8%) and One Nation 6% (4.8%). Anthony Albanese leads Peter Dutton 39-33 on preferred prime minister; 39% agree and 46% disagree that Australia is headed in the right direction. As with the state poll, it was conducted February 18 to 23 from a sample of 1004, but evidently required substantial weighting, as the methodology statement reports an effective sample of 440 and a margin of error of 4.8%.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll did not replicate the surge to Labor it recorded last week, with the Coalition recording a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 51-49 Labor lead last time. The primary vote were Labor 28.5% (down three), Coalition 40% (up three-and-a-half), Greens 13.5% (steady) and One Nation 4% (down one). The result on previous election preference flows was 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 last week. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1673.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,066 comments on “Federal miscellany: election timing and latest polls (open thread)”

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  1. Boerwar says Friday, March 7, 2025 at 9:26 pm

    Yep. All upside for Albanese. Dutton will find it difficult to get people to concentrate on his policies during the Easter Holidays and on ANZAC Day.

    Considering how empty his policy cupboard is, that might be a good thing for Dutton.

  2. I think too many people, on both sides of the argument, confuse climate with the weather. An unseasonably hot day does not prove climate change is real just as an unseasonably cold day doesn’t prove it to be false.

    Too many people also seem to see the issue through the one eye lens of ideology.

    The science and observations do point to climate change being real and I accept the science.

  3. Steve777 says:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 9:35 pm

    Few say nothing has been happening. The climate is always naturally changing.

  4. AUKUS is a dangerous joke that leaves the future of Australias submarines at the whim of Trump and any future US president.
    Australia must build our own conventionally powered subs which will cost half the cost of second hand US Virginia subs and be much more useful for Australias regional defence.
    The USA only wants to use Australia as their sacrificial front line in their battle to stop Chinas development.

  5. Don’t waste your time arguing climate change with deniers. They cannot be reasoned with.

    And don’t waste your time arguing politics with bipartisans. They also cannot be reasoned with.

  6. Strumpet of politicianssays:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:07 pm
    AUKUS is a dangerous joke that leaves the future of Australias submarines at the whim of Trump and any future US president.
    Australia must build our own conventionally powered subs which will cost half the cost of second hand US Virginia subs and be much more useful for Australias regional defence.
    The USA only wants to use Australia as their sacrificial front line in their battle to stop Chinas development.
    ====================================================

    A new player, or has GE just gone out the window and been replaced?


  7. FUBARsays:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:03 pm
    Steve777 says:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 9:35 pm

    Few say nothing has been happening. The climate is always naturally changing

    Here we go and I am supposed to be ‘smart arsey’. 🙂

  8. Peter C says:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 6:27 pm
    Yield up, price down you FOOL

    And Yield down, price up you FOOL

    That’s not what you wrote.

    This is precisely what you wrote:

    “The 10 Year Bond Yield is up 11 Basis points on the week,

    The rates are being reduced”

    No mention of price. Just two completely opposite statements.

    You continue to not correct the massive disinformation you have posted multiple times about Banks being forced to divest funds management businesses. The Royal Commission never made any such recommendation.

    Why haven’t you corrected the record?

  9. FUBAR says:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:03 pm
    Steve777 says:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 9:35 pm

    Few say nothing has been happening. The climate is always naturally changing.

    The change in the energy load in the planetary system we are observing is ‘natural’. It is a direct consequence of an increase in greenhouse gases – particularly CO2 – in the atmosphere. The heating is not ‘supernatural’. It is explicable scientifically. The earth has next to no heat of its own at the surface. The heat we can measure arises because the atmosphere is in contact with the earth surface and because the gases in the atmosphere interact with a part of the electro-magnetic spectrum – with infrared light. Now, the amount of solar radiation reaching the earth has not changed a lot, if at all, in the last 100 years. But the concentration of gases that interact with infrared light has been very rapidly and significantly increased. Consequently more light is interacting with atmospheric gases. More gases, same light, more heat capture. Of course, a significant share of infrared light reflected away by the planet does not interact with greenhouse gas. There’s still not a lot of gas. But as the amount of gas increases so will the rate of interaction with light. It follows that more gas concentration will drive further heating. Light and gases. These are present ‘naturally’. As they fluctuate so will the temperature. This is absolutely obvious.

    This is an entirely ‘natural’ process. It will profoundly change everything on earth. It already is. The gases that have been added to atmosphere have been released by us…by humans. We are changing the atmosphere and we are by that means also changing the climate.

    We are very numerous and our technologies are forcing rapid change to the atmosphere. This is so very simple. And yet the reactionaries deny it. They lie to themselves and to the rest of us. However, their lies cannot alter the physics. Eventually the physics will alter their lives. This is inexorable.

  10. Yes Hack

    It is not the debt but the performance of the asset that debt is invested into

    Further governments and Companies are perpetual

    Human beings are not

    So Companies with a history of over 100 years carry debt, ever increasing debt given the growth of their business model

    Governments ditto, the measure being debt to GDP (so the economy doing what it does)

    So government invests into infrastructure and performance (so they build hospitals and schools etc etc then employ plus they invest into assets for the amenity of future generations – this is their responsibility, so logistics)

    We have progressed past horses and carts

    As with Companies this debt is carried time in memorial – and the old story is that in regards cost it will never again be as cheap as it is today

    In regard banking, housing loans are repaid by principal plus interest repayments over 25/30 years (so set and forget)

    Company facilities are subject to Annual Review, the facilities extended for a further 12 months (noting applications for increases can be submitted at any time)

    So there you go

    And governments borrow by issuing paper, paper which can be traded

    In regards China it has the population it has, so a self sufficient economy creating its own demand (and housing business models housed other than in China so brand names)

    And it is upwardly mobile – in fact if it was not that would be the catalyst for revolution (again)

    There are just too many people (as our tourist industry attests by way of Chinese visitors to our shores – and our lesser population to China (who encourage)

    And Fuckabottle, the AUD 10 Year Bond Yield Friday closing quote to Friday closing quote is UP 11 Basis Points

    So Yield up price down

    The upshot being the contributor to Fund Managers being positive last week (falling yields price up) in falling markets is not present this week

  11. Geoffrey Epstein says:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:17 pm

    What corruption are you alleging?

    Here’s a tip – it helps if you have evidence rather than making up shit.

  12. FUBARsays:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:23 pm
    Geoffrey Epstein says:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:17 pm

    What corruption are you alleging?

    Here’s a tip – it helps if you have evidence rather than making up shit.
    ==================================================

    You never apply those rules to yourself though. So not sure why anyone else should follow on your say so.

  13. Hack, woke, Partisan says:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:21 pm

    A few hundred extra parts per million of a trace gas that has always lagged climate temperature change is not enough to create massive climate change.

    A decade or so ago Antarctic Sea Ice was at record levels for the Satellite era. We were told that was somehow due to extra CO2. Now it’s at record lows for the satellite era (which is a mere blip in global climate) and we are told it is caused by humans.

    Which is it?

    Don’t tell me they are just making it up as they go along. No?

    The Arctic was suppposed to be ice free by now. No?

  14. Ahh the poor climate cult, brainwashed by their sheer ideology and stupidity. According to them, every extreme weather event is attributed to global frying.

    The so-called climate scientists haven’t picked a winner since the Rudd campaign in 2007. There is more science in acupuncture and reflexology.

    Open Your Eyes

    (to anyone reading this from another country – not all Australians are stupid)

  15. FUBAR and the other Reactionaries are involved in an historic deception. They lie. They lie and lie and lie. They quite possibly believe their own lies. But this does not exempt them. They are still liars. They still refuse to address the failure of their reasoning. They are intellectual cheats. The worst thing is, they cheat for gain. They cheat for money or power or position. They prostitute themselves by lying. They are utterly disingenuous and they are completely contemptible.

  16. “You’re ok with politicising the Cyclone?”

    yup, given the timing a disaster and peoples responses to it have political implications.

  17. FUBAR says:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:30 pm

    You are gaslighting. You are engaged in deception. You are a liar.

  18. The climate is always changing, la lala la la (mocking voice)

    Yes, the climate is always changing, as a result on various natural cycles affecting the Earth’s orbit, axial tilt, solar activity and so forth. Also events like vulcanism and bolide impacts. There is no evidence that any of these have been operating to consistently warm the earth nearly everywhere over the past century.

    Why would seas be warm nearly everywhere? Why aren’t roughly equal numbers of glaciers advancing and retreating? Why are heat records outnumbering cold records by over 5 to 1? Because something else is warming the atmosphere in addition to any of these underlaying cycles.

  19. “FUBARsays:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:33 pm
    imacca says:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:32 pm

    You’re ok with politicising the Cyclone?

    Noted.”

    Get ready to suck it up clown

    Dutton’s reputation is about to get slapped around like a fascist pinata over the next two months from what I am hearing!

    The fact he did a billionaires fundraiser while everyone in his city were sandbagging their houses just feeds the strategy deliciously

    Please hang around here so I can consume your pain

  20. CO2 levels of 180ppm had the average temperature of the planet circa 5-6°C less than pre industrial some 20k years before present Fubar, the current 420ppm is 50% greater than it has been in any of the other interstadial periods in the last million years. It is beyond delusional to think that the current 10k years of climate stability that has seen the rise of agriculture and civilisations is going to continue through this century of rapid climate change.

  21. What corruption are you alleging?

    Here’s a tip – it helps if you have evidence rather than making up shit.

    What do you call it when a someone foists hundreds of billions of dollars of new arms-expenditure commitments on his country, then jumps straight into a job “consulting” for arms-investment firms profiting from the deal (American Global Strategies and DYNE Maritime).

    Wasn’t there a royal commission into Gillard spending a few thousand dollars renovating her kitchen years before she was even a politician?

  22. Oh yeah, global sizzling deniers are lying.

    Who do you think we’re going to believe, a professor of physics at Princeton University for one or Grade 5 intellects here at PB?

    Too funny!

  23. Honestly it’d be more productive trying to talk to dogs than MAGA cultists.

    At least with dogs they at least try to get along productively with those they live with.

  24. Given the findings of the Kangaroo Court aimed at Industry Funds but exposing the Fund Managers in the (related) ownership of banks, the banks were embarrassed into divesting of their fund manager businesses

    And I do not and never have used Industry Funds, only International Funds starting with Black Rock

    You always use the largest because they are the largest for a reason

    There used to be a 6 Pillars policy stupidly amended by the suburban lawyer Costello to 4 pillars, allowing the banks to buy insurance business’ which had fund manager operations

    ANZ made an offer for NMRB, which included the Fund Manager Business

    Keating said no so ANZ got only the banking business

    Where are the Fund Manager businesses the banks owned (thru structure) now?

    And when were they divested of by process?

    You really are a very, very long way out of your depth

    And I would say baiting by presenting abject misinformation

  25. Centre says:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:31 pm
    Ahh the poor climate cult, brainwashed by their sheer ideology and stupidity.

    ———

    Have a look in the mirror you are guided by ideology before anything else.

  26. https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/03/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-establishes-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-u-s-digital-asset-stockpile/

    Like, i would break my keyboard to do sufficient LOL’s to do this justice.

    “The United States will not sell bitcoin deposited into this Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which will be maintained as a store of reserve assets.”

    so, given crypto has no actual inherent value, the point is to artificial and unsustainably inflate your balance sheet with hot air??

  27. Centresays:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:31 pm
    Ahh the poor climate cult, brainwashed by their sheer ideology and stupidity. According to them, every extreme weather event is attributed to global frying.
    =========================================================

    The right has been blocking climate action for 20 years, telling us there is no such thing as climate change. Yet everyone’s insurance premiums say something different. The right has cost the whole planet a lot, and not just in insurance premiums, though they are bad enough. Yet gullible center still believes there is no climate change, just as he believed an April 12th election was a sure thing. How many houses has he lost now?

    “Centresays:
    Sunday, March 2, 2025 at 6:31 pm
    The first story on channel 9 News in Sydney straight after the footy was that Albo would be going to the GG next Sunday for an April 12 election.
    Who would you rather believe Channel 9 or Entropy – sheezus!”

    The answer if anyone is interested is Entropy.

  28. Centre says:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:43 pm
    Oh yeah, global sizzling deniers are lying.

    Yup….absolutely. You are attempting to deceive yourself and others. You have clearly succeeded in tricking yourself. But you will not dupe those who look at the facts and the explanations offered by physics.

    Get used to it. You’re lying to yourself. This is voluntary. It is wilful self-deception.

  29. Hack, woke, partisan is typical of the leftist ecofascists. From the 1960s to 1991 the global left used the Peace and Nuclear Disarmament movements and the Useful
    Idiots sucked in by their message to try and break down Western societies and their ability to defend themselves against the USSR and Warsaw Pact Countries. With the collapse of the USSR, the global Left needed a new raison d’être and discovered the unprovable concept of human caused climate change. And hasn’t it served them well. The Lefts dominance in academia throughout the western world allowed for the new orthodoxy to become entrenched. Western economies are being destroyed by hugely expensive and inefficient renewables and the requirement to completely rebuild energy systems. Along with that massive transfers of wealth to select nations is demanded.

    They also continue to push their lines on inequality but continue to struggle to win the argument.

    It is one of the greatest scientific and economic frauds ever imposed on humanity.

  30. I think Bowen and Albo’s intermittent energy scam was the thought bubble. They had a majority in government. They had their chance. They promised CHEAPER (by $275) and RELIABLE power.

    They failed to deliver on both counts!

    It’s not Dutton’s policy that is the thought bubble. We know nuclear power is reliable, and by other comparisons around the globe, it is cheaper.

  31. Centresays:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:43 pm
    Oh yeah, global sizzling deniers are lying.

    Who do you think we’re going to believe, a professor of physics at Princeton University for one or Grade 5 intellects here at PB?

    Too funny!
    ===============================================

    The funny thing is you believing the single old retired and out-of-his-depth emeritus professor at Princeton and ignoring the consensus view of the current science professors at Princeton on this.

  32. A transition to renewable energy is prudent and a no brainer. It’s disturbing that this even needs to be explicitly stated.

  33. Geoffrey Epstein says:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:42 pm

    Any evidence to support your allegation that corruption has occurred?

    Nope.

    Didn’t think so.

  34. One way or another, the fossil fuel industry will die in coming decades. We may still use coal and oil to produce essential inputs to other industrial processes but we will no longer burn the stuff on a huge scale. And of course, no one will mourn the shutdown of the fossil fuel industry any more than they mourn they end of whaling, the end of the large scale use of horses and bullocks, the end of the the end of the large scale use of candles nor the end of slavery.

    The large scale use of coal, oil and gas will soon end. Fair transition for the workers in those industries. The investors can get stuffed.

  35. What a classic!

    Their reasoning for supporting males to compete against females in sports is that females can play against males in chess and card games.

    Brainwashed ideology at its best.

  36. Peter C says:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:43 pm

    You used to claim that the Royal Commission forced the banks to divest their fund managers. There is zero evidence of that.

    Now you claim they were embarrassed.

    By what?

    There wasn’t any inquiries into their funds management businesses.

    You are making it up.

  37. “FUBARsays:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 11:00 pm
    Geoffrey Epstein says:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:42 pm

    Any evidence to support your allegation that corruption has occurred?

    Nope.

    Didn’t think so.”

    Mate, Dutton is about to be smeared relentlessly……..varying levels of truthiness…….brace yourself!

  38. FUBARsays:

    It is one of the greatest scientific and economic frauds ever imposed on humanity.
    _____________________
    It’s all a plot to bring down western civilization? Sounds about right. Those academics with all their books and scientific instruments and shit. Makes me sick.

    Although, I’m not sure what the Chinese academic scientists are getting out of this. Why are they supporting this scientific fraud?

    I know! Chinese artsy fartsy academics want to destroy Chinese civilization!

  39. sustainable snailsays:
    Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:51 pm
    If you deny climate change you are an idiot
    ======================================================

    That’s well established; wait until he starts telling you about his next surefire bet, which I gather is that 2025 will be the coldest year on record, as the last 10 years have all been among the top 10 hottest years on record. So centre thinks this year is sure to be the coldest.

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