A report in Nine Newspapers yesterday quoted “a pair of ministers” expressing the view that Cyclone Alfred may, depending on its severity, deter the Prime Minister from calling an April 12 election on Sunday. Simon Benson of The Australian notes the optics of an election announcement would be particularly troublesome if, as appears likely, the most heavily affected areas encompass Peter Dutton’s own seat of Dickson. That would lock the government into a March 25 budget and an election in May – unless, as Benson notes, it pursued the no less optically troublesome path of extending the campaign to six weeks and holding the election on May 3.
On the poll front, the fortnightly Essential Research records little change on voting intention, with an increased Coalition result among women cancelling out a drop among men. Labor is down a point to 29% with the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation down one to 8%. The Coalition nudges ahead on the 2PP+ measure, now leading 48-47 after a 48-48 result last time. Leadership ratings that normally come monthly are included for the second fortnight in a row, with Anthony Albanese down two on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 49%, while Peter Dutton is steady on 41% and down one to 44%.
A question on firmness of voting intention reflects other polling in finding Coalition voters more likely to profess certainty in their intention (65% compared with 31% for “might change my mind” and 4% for “not yet decided”) than Labor voters (52%, 39% and 9%). Respondents were divided on the likely outcome, 29% apiece expecting Labor the Coalition to win a majority, with 22% for a Labor minority and 21% for a Coalition minority. A regular pre-election question on voting method finds more than ever planning to vote early (31%, up from 24% in the May 2022 survey), with election day down three points to 35% and postal down five to 19%. A monthly national mood indicator is slightly improved on a weak result last time, 34% holding that the country is heading in the right direction (up three) compared with 49% for the wrong track (down two).
DemosAU now has federal results for the South Australian poll for which state results were published earlier in the week. The poll shows Labor with a two-party lead in the state of 53-47, a swing to the Coalition of 1% compared with 2022. The primary votes are Labor 34% (34.5% at the election), Coalition 35% (35.7%), Greens 11% (12.8%) and One Nation 6% (4.8%). Anthony Albanese leads Peter Dutton 39-33 on preferred prime minister; 39% agree and 46% disagree that Australia is headed in the right direction. As with the state poll, it was conducted February 18 to 23 from a sample of 1004, but evidently required substantial weighting, as the methodology statement reports an effective sample of 440 and a margin of error of 4.8%.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll did not replicate the surge to Labor it recorded last week, with the Coalition recording a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 51-49 Labor lead last time. The primary vote were Labor 28.5% (down three), Coalition 40% (up three-and-a-half), Greens 13.5% (steady) and One Nation 4% (down one). The result on previous election preference flows was 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 last week. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1673.
dave says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 11:07 pm
China are laughing at us as they massively increase their emissions.
Lars Von Triersays:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 7:23 pm
[Good one Alastair!]
Lars Von Triersays
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 7:32 pm
[Good one Alastair !]
The Negroni Spritz kicked in and LVT disappears!
Climate change don’t care what some idiot on the internet reckons.
FUBARsays:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 11:10 pm
dave says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 11:07 pm
China are laughing at us as they massively increase their emissions.
______________________________________
They are massively increasing their renewable power too. 16% of Chinese electricity is solar and wind.
I suppose you think this is just a ruse!
Google Australian Banks owning fund manager businesses
It is not hard to find, starting with CBA and Colonial in 2000, and the other banks following over the next 2 years
And who owns these Fund Managers businesses now (signed off by Courts)?
When did the banks exit this Funds Management businesses?
And when was the so called RC into the banking industry – and what did it find?
The Terms of Reference were the work of Lindsay Maxstead who was Chair of Westpac (from partner in a big 4 accounting firm) and Costello
The adverse publicity the banks were attracting at that time saw a meeting of CEO’d to stem the bleeding, Lindsay tapped on the shoulder to go to Costello saying the banks agreed the needs for a RC
The evidence tendered under the very tight Terms of Reference were what was tendered – and delivered the ultimate outcome of the banks divesting
All fact
So yes, they were forced from the Industry by what was before the RC
They couldn’t get out quick enough – except Court sign off delayed the break up of ING and ANZ (to One Path with its now proprietor)
Actually I believe in the 80s the Chinese leadership heard about Global Warming and went to the leading Chinese scientists and asked them whether this ‘Western’ idea was really true.
Yes, the Chinese scientists said in response, and it hasn’t really been a controversial issue in China since.
sustainable snailsays:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 11:12 pm
Climate change don’t care what some idiot on the internet reckons.
========================================================
Idiots like Centre are nearly always wrong. Anyone on here that has followed his gambling tips can tell you that.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/30/world-endures-decade-of-deadly-heat-as-2024-caps-hottest-years-on-record-un-antonio-guterres
“There wasn’t any inquiries into their funds management businesses.
You are making it up.”
https://www.royalcommission.gov.au/banking
mjsays:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:21 pm
[The NACC is a toothless tiger by design.]
The new fangled dentures will be fitted at the correct time.
It’s a process, it’s established and will be as early as before the election.
There’s a bit of bite coming for the buck!
Re Peter C @11:13. Labor was widely expected to win the 2019 Federal election. Back then, I had assumed that the banks had decided that a banking Royal Commission was inevitable so they decided to bite the bullet and get it done while their friends were still in power.
Centre says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:31 pm
Ahh the poor climate cult, brainwashed by their sheer ideology and stupidity
———–
Sky News weather presenter says SE Queensland waters are unseasonably warm.
The waters off nearly everywhere are unseasonably warm.
FUBAR 10.54pm
[It is one of the greatest scientific and economic frauds ever imposed on humanity.]
No wonder the kids throw rocks at you.
FUBARsays:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 11:10 pm
dave says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 11:07 pm
[China are laughing at us as they massively increase their emissions.]
Is it something they ate ?
I think FUBAR believes in the Great Replacement Theory. He never mentions it, but this paranoia about academics wanting to destroy Western Civilization is straight out of the same conservative crackpot manual.
Looking back since 2007, John Howard, Tony Abbott, Andrew Bolt, Chris Kenny, and Peta Credlin were right.
The last 17.5 years is long enough to make an observation. Professor Happer and many other experts who have been gagged were also right. Climate change is exaggerated.
*two good games of footy, South Sydney will improve, the other three tonight will struggle to make the eight… in the black and on track
And Maxstead left Westpac courtesy of AUSTRAK non compliance
Google it
There is rotten behaviour on both sides of the fence
As my wife says “we are born bad and have to work at being good”
No Steve
It was the mounting negative publicity (I knew Lindsay well from his KPMG days as partner then CEO)
Thank you imacca
We will see of that shuts the idiot up, hey?
Albo wants to make climate change a major election issue. It will end in tears like the voice.
“It seems likely the U.S. entered recession this month, marking the end of a 4 1/2-year post-pandemic recovery. Policy mistakes caused this downturn — an unforced error of first order. It is possible we’ll see a rapid reversal of these policies, which could avert a deep recession. But enough damage appears to have been done to push us into one.
Economic data through January was strong. Inflation-adjusted GDP growth in 2024 was a solid 2.8%, only slightly below the 2.9% from 2023. Labor markets in January continued an expansion of 143,000 jobs, cutting the unemployment rate to 4%. This marks the strongest four-year labor market conditions since the late 1960s and early 1970s.”
https://www.indystar.com/story/opinion/columnists/2025/03/06/trump-tariffs-doge-recession/81684786007/
michaelsays:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 11:29 pm
Albo wants to make climate change a major election issue. It will end in tears like the voice.
===================================================
The only tears will be those of Trumpian Dutton. The emperor has been shown to have no clothes. So will Dutton’s nuclear policy when laid bare in this election.
michael says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 11:29 pm
Albo wants to make climate change a major election issue. It will end in tears like the voice.
———
When Albo is asked what his legacy will be he likes to drop this as his main legacy which to me highlights his lack of ambition. Apparently this guy was once from the hard left of Labor. He has definitely forgotten where he came from.
Centre said at 11:26pm:
“ Looking back since 2007, John Howard, Tony Abbott, Andrew Bolt, Chris Kenny, and Peta Credlin were right.
The last 17.5 years is long enough to make an observation. Professor Happer and many other experts who have been gagged were also right. Climate change is exaggerated.”
Exaggerated, huh?
Ok, so tell me why our house insurance costs are increasing faster than the inflation rate.
No, it’s not profiteering this time.
Why are so many houses declared uninsurable.
I’ll wait…
imacca says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 11:15 pm
I’ve read it. Multiple times. Funds Management was not the subject of any recommendations.
An interesting hypothesis I’ve been hearing lately is that the US Republicans fear their voters, while the US Democrats despise their voters.
I mean it’s been played out in real time, Republicans are running away from their town hall meetings while Democrats tend to show up and be like “No, shut up, I’ve been elected for 20 years, I decide what the issues are, stop complaining.”
Democratic politicians tend to toe the line between what their lobbyists want and what their voters will tolerate. Meanwhile Republican politicians tend to be like “N-no, I won’t oppose the rule of God-Emperor-King-President Donald J. Trump, First of His Name, please don’t throw me into the oubliette.”
Democratic politicians who just want to continue a convenient life of being technocratic administrators view their voters the same way as DMV workers (the US equivalent of VicRoads and such) view people waiting in line, with contempt. Ultimately they report to their bosses (the consultants and lobbyists), but in the meantime they have to deal with these customers (their voters) and most of them resent them for that.
Maude Lynne says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 11:51 pm
Building costs have skyrocketed. Nothing to do with climate change. It costs about $300 just to get a single double power point replacement or installation.
As for uninsurable – they’ve built lots of houses in flood prone areas. More houses equals more risk and costs.
Entropy says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 11:32 pm
Look up the definition of a recession.
It takes six months of negative growth to enter one.
No FUBAR, that would only account for inflation rate increases.
Insurance cost increases are much greater than that.
And
Why are previously insurable houses now uninsurable?
I’m not talking about new areas.
Steve777 says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 11:19 pm
The commission was established in December 2017, years before the 2019 election.
FUBAR says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:54 pm
More gaslighting by a thoroughly disingenuous reactionary trickster.
The sudden increase in global mean temperatures is entirely attributable to changes in the composition of the atmosphere. This is indisputable. The mechanism by which this occurs is entirely understood and testable.
Only a liar would pretend otherwise.
Would that it were not so. But it is just so. It is deceitful reactionary posturing to deny it.
Maude Lynne says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 12:07 am
Previously insured houses become uninsurable because the pool of high risk homes increased significantly relative to the rest of the pool. They can’t have two houses next to each other and say an old one can be insured and the other can’t.
The same happens in health insurance. Previously claimable conditions suddenly become uninsurable because the increase in claims. Same for Income Protection insurance – as an example mental health is either getting excluded or massive premiums are required.
Hack, woke, Partisan says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 12:12 am
It’s not sudden. It’s been happening since the 1750s.
Historical temperature estimates based on proxy measures do not have the granularity or accuracy to prove whether temperatures have or have not risen as fast in the past.
Hack, woke, Partisan says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 12:12 am
It’s not testable. There is no experiment that can accurately replicate the earth’s climate system let alone have a control planet.
FUBAR says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 12:17 am
Hack, woke, Partisan says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 12:12 am
It’s not sudden. It’s been happening since the 1750s.
This is a disingenuous distortion of the data. This is yet more lying by a professional political fraudster.
I haven’t had a chance to check in here since yesterday morning.
You can rant and rave about the latest 2pp polling, rejoice or go into denial etc etc etc.
The simple fact of the matter is we have a preferential voting system here. Any swing to Dutton will not be uniform- if it was Beazely would have become prime minister in 1998 etc.
If labor got to majority with 32.6% in 2022 I can’t see how they could leave the parlour with anything less than minority backed by a solid green/teal dominated cross bench providing confidence and supply.
The cyclone will work very well for the incumbent, as will the continued Trump lunacy every day the drive to yarralumla is delayed. Labor majority may still be in play. Dutton is just too unpopular and the cross bench both too big and progressive.
In the meantime let the likes of pied piper and P1 have their day in the sun.
dave says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 11:15 pm
Strange that China chose to keep increasing emissions at such a high rate to become by far the biggest polluter in the world.
Hack, woke, Partisan says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 12:20 am
The temperature record clearly shows the current phase of increases commenced in the 1750s.
FUBAR says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 12:19 am
Hack, woke, Partisan says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 12:12 am
It’s not testable. There is no experiment that can accurately replicate the earth’s climate system let alone have a control planet.
This is gaslighting.
The undeniable truth is that the physical process by which CO2 reacts with infrared light to capture energy and release it as heat is thoroughly testable. It has been tested. It has been proven. The increased concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere mean that more light is caught as it travels through the atmosphere. More gas….more heat capture. This is absolutely beyond dispute.
Only an idiot or a liar would deny it. Since I doubt you are an idiot, it’s safe to conclude you are a liar.
FUBARsays:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 12:23 am
dave says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 11:15 pm
Strange that China chose to keep increasing emissions at such a high rate to become by far the biggest polluter in the world.
_____________________
Not really when you consider they have undergone the greatest shift to urbanism and manufacturing in history. Clearly they have tried to implement renewables alongside their other goals. No country has had a brilliant response to Global Warming.
But tell us about the Great Replacement Theory. Why hide your views about it?
The Banking Royal Commission was established in 2017. I’ll go out on a limb and say that a decision 16!years before the Banking Royal Commission is probably unrelated to the commission.
How in dog’s name has the business decisions of banks in relation to funds management got anything to do with the Banking Royal Commission? It isn’t even mentioned in the Reports.
FUBAR says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 12:25 am
Hack, woke, Partisan says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 12:20 am
The temperature record clearly shows the current phase of increases commenced in the 1750s.
This is a disingenuous distortion of the data. This defines you as a serial liar.
High Street says Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:40 pm
Well the power outages were caused by the wind, and wind power is a key component of renewables, so drawing a bow the size of the planet…..
FUBARsays:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 12:05 am
Entropy says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 11:32 pm
Look up the definition of a recession.
It takes six months of negative growth to enter one.
===================================================
Poor old dumb Fubar. The first of those 6 months is when you enter a recession. You just don’t know you have for sure until the second successive Qtr GDP figures come out. Though it pretty definite USA has. As the negative GDP level they have reached makes that nearly a certainty.
Clearly India are building massive solar power farms because they are in on the plot to destroy Western civilization. How does it work? The more solar panels in the world, the greater the moral decay in the West? Some kind of interaction between Christianity and silicon?
Hack, woke, Partisan says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 12:28 am
Where did I say that the thermal properties of CO2 are not testable? Those properties has been known for centuries.
The theory that the thermal properties of CO2 in a gaseous concentration of a few hundred parts per million is enough to drive catastrophic global climate change is what is completely untestable.
Even those who believe in the science and are trying to get Australian coal mines and gas fields shut down or not started can’t give scientific answers to how much temperatures and climate will change and over what time frames if their recommendations are followed.
A few thousand years ago a man was frozen in the Italian Alps and then entombed in a glacier as the planet cooled. And now he has been discovered as the planet warms. Why was the previous warm period OK but this one isn’t?
dave says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 12:39 am
Well done. Now show it to your Mum.
dave says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 12:28 am
Isn’t it an existential threat? And they, who have the power to do whatever they want to do, just said, bugger it.
Completely logical.
The greenhouse effect is observed on other planets and moons in the solar system and works according to the well-understood physics and chemistry of atmospheric molecules.
But you can’t replicate planet Earth which means the theories of Darwinian evolution and plate tectonics must also be wrong.
The US Defense, DOD has spent a shitload of time working out strategies to deal with the biggest threat to national security, Climate Change.
They’ve also addressed mitigating carbon emissions/accelerated climate change.
https://www.globalchange.gov/agencies/department-defense#:~:text=In%20alignment%20with%20the%20National,impact%20of%20global%20environmental%20changes.
Does anybody know that maths puzzle on youtube where there’s an exclamation mark at the end of the line that turns out to be a factorial indicator? I want to post it here to try to fool everyone*.
While we’re waiting, let’s have some music.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3W1Jm2jF8MI&list=RD_bFMnw3LzRc&index=3
* Yeah, I know. The element of surprise might have been lost. But you never know.
You can check the links.
https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/