As reported in The Advertiser on Thursday, DemosAU has a poll of state voting intention for South Australia crediting Labor with a lead of 59-41, compared with 55.6-44.4 at the 2022 election, from primary votes of Labor 43% (40.0% in 2022), Liberal 30% (35.6%) and Greens 10% (9.1%). Peter Malinauskas holds a 51-23 lead over Vincent Tarzia as preferred premier. Fifty-three per cent agree the state is headed in the right direction, compared with 33% for disagree. The poll was conducted February 18 to 23 from a sample of 1004, but evidently required substantial weighting, as the methodology statement reports an effective sample of 440 and a margin of error of 4.8%.
The poll presents a rare opportunity for a South Australian politics post, in which to unload information accumulated of late about a state election now little more than a year away.
• The tenure of Mount Gambier independent Troy Bell has been in question since he was convicted in September on charges of stealing from a not-for-profit he was running during his former career as a teacher. Appeal and sentencing processes still in train could end with a lengthy jail sentence and the vacation of the seat. Thomas Kelsall of InDaily relates the likely Liberal candidate in that case would be Ben Hood, who ran unsuccessfully against Bell in 2022 and filled an upper house vacancy in February 2023. Parliament decided in August not to pursue the expulsion of Narungga independent Fraser Ellis, who was convicted on lesser charges of deception of his use of a parliamentary allowance.
• Tony Piccolo, long-serving member for the seat of Light around Gawler, confirmed last week he would seek to expand Labor’s footprint at the next election by contesting the largely rural neighbouring seat of Ngadjuri, as the existing seat of Frome will become known. The seat is held for the Liberals by Penny Pratt, whose margin has been cut from 8.2% to 3.3% in the redistribution, which transfers Gawler’s outskirts to the seat from Light.
• The Liberals have preselected data consultant Scott Kennedy for the seat of Morialta, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of former deputy leader John Gardner. InDaily reports Kennedy is a former staffer to Gardner and Steven Marshall, and shares their moderate factional alignment. The Advertiser reports Matthew Marozzi, adviser to Tourism Minister Zoe Bettison and “best mate of Liberal leader Vincent Tarzia”, will again be Labor’s candidate in Morialta, where he also ran in 2022.
• The Advertiser reports Holdfast Bay mayor Jane Fleming will be the Liberal candidate for Gibson.
• The ABC reports Tim Whetstone, Liberal member for the Riverland seat of Chaffey, survived a preselection challenge last month from Nicolle Jachmann, chief executive of the Riverview Lutheran Rest Home, by 40 votes to 25.
• Anna Finizio will again be the Liberal candidate for Dunstan, which she failed to carry for the party at a by-election held last March after Steven Marshall’s retirement. Finizio is a former solicitor, state government media adviser, public policy and economics manager at PwC, and the party’s candidate for Hindmarsh at the 2022 election.
• David Pisoni, who has held Unley for the Liberals since 2006, announced in October that he will not contest the next election. The Advertiser reports he is likely to be succeeded as Liberal candidate by Rosalie Rotolo-Hassan, an entrepreneur formerly noted as the proprietor of a gourmet food store.
• Liberal-turned-independent member Dan Cregan announced in late January that he would not seek re-election in his seat of Kavel, citing his need to care for a family member who had suffered a stroke. Cregan also stepped down from his position in the ministry he assumed in April 2024 after Sturt MP Geoff Brock, who had hitherto held the spot the government generously allocates to an independent, resigned for health reasons. Labor’s member for Mawson, Leon Bignell, resigned from Labor to replace Brock as Speaker, consistent with a rule familiar from British practice but unique in Australia.
• Tammy Franks, who has been a Greens member of the upper house since 2010, announced in September that she will retire at the election.
• Upper house member Jing Lee resigned from the Liberal Party in January, ahead of what colleagues quoted by The Advertiser said was a looming preselection defeat. Reports has far back as 2022 suggested her position was jeopardised by the state party’s growing conservative ascendancy and her involvement in the pro-Beijing SA Xinjiang Association. Support for Lee further tanked in September after she unexpectedly failed to support a bill advanced by conservative Liberal member Ben Hood to limit access to abortion. InDaily reports that Lee was the only moderate out of the four Liberal upper house members whose terms end next year, Hood, Heidi Girolamo and Terry Stephens all being conservatives.
• The government’s sweeping bill to ban political donations, cap spending and increase public funding was passed in November, to take effect at the next election. The donations ban does not apply to newly registered candidates and parties, which are instead subject to a donations cap of $5000. A spending cap regime that was formerly on an opt-in basis for those taking advantage of public funding is now mandatory, effectively limiting major parties’ campaign spends to $4 million. The government responded to concerns that campaign activities would be redirected to US-style political action committees by imposing a $450,000 cap for third parties over a four-year electoral cycle, with donations capped at $5000 for non-charities. Public funding has been increased and will mostly be available now as advance funding rather than reimbursement.
• A further set of electoral reforms catches up with other jurisdictions in removing the theoretical limitations on pre-poll voting, but reduces the pre-poll period from two weeks to one; allows for pre-poll and postal votes to be counted on election night; ends the practice of political parties sending out postal vote applications; allows for election day enrolment; prohibits the use of AI deep-fakes in election communications; bans parties from automated phone calls, including robopolling; and removes the state’s distinctive practice of allowing independents three-word identifiers to sell themselves on the ballot paper.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of South Australian politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
There is a feeling of positivity here in SA; good leadership, things getting done, excellent major projects up and running, and many indicators like growth, unemployment and housing prices looking pretty healthy.
That, and the Liberals are a trainwreck.
+1 Torchbearer
The SA Labor government is going well. Positive, decisive and making sensible decisions like Whyalla. They are perceived as problem solvers.
Worth noting that this poll was taken largely before the Whyalla decision, which has been popular. I doubt the current position is any worse; it may be better.
Dan Cregan is a Liberal-turned- Independent, not the other way round.
Halfway down the Jing Lee par I think it should be “Support for HER etc”
(Pedantic old sub-editors never die).
Can Victorian Labor recruit Malinauskas?
I currently expect a re-elected majority Labor Government at the 2026 SA state-election.
Jane Fleming will contest Gibson, Alex Dighton won the by election in neighbouring Black from Speirs
Slight error – Alex Dighton won black at the by election, not Gibson.
Labor is obviously going to win the next election easily. Tarzia can hand over to Ashton Hurn after that who rattled Labor over ramping and the hospital system.
But the Libs are so divided and Antic keeps them in permacrisis.
Labor has done poorly on delivering projects.
Hydrogen plant is gratefully dead.
The nWCH is bad to the drawing board and will be lucky to be built in ten years.
The Bragg Proton centre is a vacant $500m white elephant that doesn’t have a business case.
The Aboriginal Art Museum looks like joining the abandoned project list.
The question is whether the good feelings towards Labor at state level will flow into the federal election (cf. WA last time around). Not much for Labor to pick up Federally except perhaps Sturt but with a good community independent running there, and a lacklustre local member that even Dutton forgot about when he appointed Price as his DOGE minister, it could be an interesting three way contest.
Thanks to the error correctors (and indeed all of you).
Labor cannot be trusted. In addition to breaking its promise to “fix ramping” they have also broken their promise to deliver their flagship hydrogen hoax and lower power prices for South Australians. Labor can try and spin it but facts are facts – South Australia will be a better place under the Liberals. LABOR NEEDS TO GO!!
Q: South Australia will be a better place under the Liberals
That’s why they were turfed out after one term- half a dozen of them having been found to have rorted entitlements or having undeclared conflict of interests.
Major projects are complex and expensive- Labor is being upfront about the challenges, costs and time-frames. The liberals under speced and under funded major projects- many had to go back to the drawing board.
I think it’s probably rare for the question relating to ‘are we going in the right direction’ to have a positive number just about anywhere in the world.
It’s a remarkable result for SA to have such a strong positive on that question, but Malinauskas just looks all over his brief and he’s trusted to do the right thing.
Tarzia has an impossible job, short of a major scandal.
Mali is excellent and Mulligan is sensible. There isn’t a lot else in the Labor cupboard though.
There is even less in the Libs and they are being white anted by Antic.
Torchblower
The Libs were turfed because of ramping and having a weak leader who let Grant and Nicola run the state.
Done some good things but for a Labor man he sure dislikes the unions.
Overall though compared to the shambolic Liberal party he is a clear choice.
V
He loves the Ambos Union. He doesn’t like many others though, esp anything to do with construction.
He hates the doctors union.
Nicole – I think Antic frightens a lot of people with his extreme views. For example, from what I can glean talking to people even in the more conservative Eastern suburbs, people in SA are actually quite proud of their renewables, the solar panels on their homes etc. and are scared when Dutton says they may have to be curtailed to make way for a nuclear power station. The last premier, Steven Marshall, actually extended Jay Weatherill’s renewable initiatives. The Libs are actually driving people to Labor. If they stopped frightening folk then things might normalise a bit.
Peter Malinaukas is probably the best retail politican in the country at present.
What are the odds on Labor picking up the seat of Sturt and retaining Boothby in the imminent federal election?
Democracy Sausage @ #21 Monday, March 3rd, 2025 – 4:40 pm
I have often thought Malinauskas and Albanese to be very similar in their politics (I seem to like and dislike the same things about them) and miles apart in just about everything else. It isnt just presentation and verbal capability. And it isnt just the vibe. Malinauskus knows how to feed the chickens with a straight face.
Obviously, they play in very different leagues. So comparisons are pinches of salt.
I think Labor will hold Boothby because Flint is too like Antic (although Miller-Frost is a lightweight).
They would be 50/50 in Sturt. Expect to see Mali about a lot. Tarzia not so much.
If Labor ends up doing this well in the election next year, they’d end up with a more favourable Legislative Council as well, albeit barely. The 2026 election puts the members elected in 2018 up for the vote, including the 2 SA-Best MLC’s Connie Bonaros and Frank Pangallo (now an Independent), who probably will lose both their seats.
A majority of 12/22 seats is out of the question since they’d need to win 7/11 seats for that (they won 5 on the last election and 7 isn’t happening unless it’s a blowout like WA 2021). More likely is 5/11 seats so they’d hold 10/22 seats and would only need 2 crossbenchers to pass legislation.
The Liberals meanwhile would probably only win 3 seats. Jing Lee resigned from the party so she’s definitely out, and that would put them down to 7 seats.
Given the quota for a seat in the SA Upper House is 8.33%, it’s probably unlikely that the Greens will win more than 1 seat, but their preferences would help an adjacent party over the line such as Legalise Cannabis or Animal Justice. Lastly One Nation will probably win the last seat.
So that would make my estimate of the Legislative Council be 10 Labor, 7 Liberal, 2 Greens and 2 One Nation, with 1 other crossbencher.
Whatever happened to Lucy Gichui? I thought she was a SA Liberal of good standing? The sort who would get a state seat after a federal stint? Or even that Family First would put her up for an Upper House run?
Jane Fleming is the Deputy Mayor Holdfast Bay Council, FWIW.
Moving on, there IS a general air of optimism in SA at the moment, and Mali is a master at promoting this. He is remarkably well liked by the middle and non-engaged and is arguably still in his honeymoon. The ALP team are generally young and hungry, and work their electorates hard. Opposition Leader Vincent Tarzia is leading a pit of vipers who are more likely to bite each other than the Government. They are also remarkably lacking in talent. Antic is the biggest fish in a shrinking SA pond. Good luck with that, Vince.
That the ALP will retain Government next year, save for a State Bank sized scandal, is a foregone conclusion, and the only question will be how many MORE seats the ALP will squeeze from the hapless Libs. Cregan’s seat could go to another (as for now, unknown) Independent, the Libs, ALP or Greens.
As for the Federal Election, Sturt will fall to Labor. The Liberal incumbent has a very poor name in the electorate, the seat’s demographics have swung very young, and out of the four major candidates, his campaign is the worst by far. He is rarely seen north of Norwood let alone the generally ALP supporting north of the Torrens where his name recognition would be less than that of the singer who came 13th on Australian Idol – last year.
The local ALP campaign has been comprehensive and en pointe, the Greens have thrown the kitchen sink here but have no chance of winning it, and the teal Independent is gaining traction in a seat not unlike some where the teals did well in 2022. I really think this will be a 4% swing to ALP 2PP territory.
As for Boothby, LMF is one of the lesser lights of the ALP, but again, thanks to a change in demographics I think she will squeak back despite a tiny swing against.
I am also predicting a swing to the Libs in Spence even if they put up a no-name no money campaign there. Grey will remain Liberal, and I can’t see any other change in the other seats.
For the Senate, I think it will be 2 ALP 2 Lib 1 Grn and the last seat as a fight between One Nation and Rex Patrick. If ON prevails, it will create what is surely the unique situation where the State Party Leader in SA Parliament, Sarah Game, will complement the State Senator, Jennifer Game, her mother. Though remarkable, I hope it doesn’t happen, but I think it will.
Finally, I also think Trumpet of Patriots will bomb across the country and get no one elected at all.
Independently Thinking: Agree with most of what you have to say except Sturt where I think a Teal will win. Dr Verity Cooper has been running a low-key but extensive grass-roots campaign and the Labor candidate is just about invisible (mind you, the Liberal MP has been invisible for six years).
This is remarkable polling for SA Labor given trends elsewhere in Australia – and particularly wonderful given how awful Antic and friends are on the Liberal side. I’d be worried they might catch some of the Trump momentum, but Malinauskas really seems to have their number.
I agree with Team Katich above about Malinauskas’ politics and his skills.
Re Gichuhi – the Libs never embraced her, she was just a convenient extra vote in the party rather than on the crossbench for so long as he held the old FF seat, who was then replaced by one of their own up and comers. I’m zero percent surprised that she was never heard from again and is now apparently working as a mortgage broker.
IT
I’ve had a big to do with LMF and she is really poor, which is not at all what I expected with her pedigree. At best she is a seat warmer.
Antic is such a f-wit that I can’t see Flint getting in. We stuffed up as an electorate not voting in Rachel Swift who is actually very intelligent, down to Earth and likeable.
Thanks Dio.
The ALP should be using the pic of Antic and Trump, and the pic of Antic and Flint, in their campaigning in Boothby – that should see Flint off.
I agree with you re Swift as someone who would have been a solid local MP other than also being another Coalition pawn in the House. As it is, you’re stuck with a poor local MP who is another ALP pawn in the House.
As I used to work with LMF, I shall leave it there.
IT
An awful lot of embarrassed Tesla owners I our electorate!!