A report in Nine Newspapers yesterday quoted “a pair of ministers” expressing the view that Cyclone Alfred may, depending on its severity, deter the Prime Minister from calling an April 12 election on Sunday. Simon Benson of The Australian notes the optics of an election announcement would be particularly troublesome if, as appears likely, the most heavily affected areas encompass Peter Dutton’s own seat of Dickson. That would lock the government into a March 25 budget and an election in May – unless, as Benson notes, it pursued the no less optically troublesome path of extending the campaign to six weeks and holding the election on May 3.
On the poll front, the fortnightly Essential Research records little change on voting intention, with an increased Coalition result among women cancelling out a drop among men. Labor is down a point to 29% with the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation down one to 8%. The Coalition nudges ahead on the 2PP+ measure, now leading 48-47 after a 48-48 result last time. Leadership ratings that normally come monthly are included for the second fortnight in a row, with Anthony Albanese down two on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 49%, while Peter Dutton is steady on 41% and down one to 44%.
A question on firmness of voting intention reflects other polling in finding Coalition voters more likely to profess certainty in their intention (65% compared with 31% for “might change my mind” and 4% for “not yet decided”) than Labor voters (52%, 39% and 9%). Respondents were divided on the likely outcome, 29% apiece expecting Labor the Coalition to win a majority, with 22% for a Labor minority and 21% for a Coalition minority. A regular pre-election question on voting method finds more than ever planning to vote early (31%, up from 24% in the May 2022 survey), with election day down three points to 35% and postal down five to 19%. A monthly national mood indicator is slightly improved on a weak result last time, 34% holding that the country is heading in the right direction (up three) compared with 49% for the wrong track (down two).
DemosAU now has federal results for the South Australian poll for which state results were published earlier in the week. The poll shows Labor with a two-party lead in the state of 53-47, a swing to the Coalition of 1% compared with 2022. The primary votes are Labor 34% (34.5% at the election), Coalition 35% (35.7%), Greens 11% (12.8%) and One Nation 6% (4.8%). Anthony Albanese leads Peter Dutton 39-33 on preferred prime minister; 39% agree and 46% disagree that Australia is headed in the right direction. As with the state poll, it was conducted February 18 to 23 from a sample of 1004, but evidently required substantial weighting, as the methodology statement reports an effective sample of 440 and a margin of error of 4.8%.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll did not replicate the surge to Labor it recorded last week, with the Coalition recording a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 51-49 Labor lead last time. The primary vote were Labor 28.5% (down three), Coalition 40% (up three-and-a-half), Greens 13.5% (steady) and One Nation 4% (down one). The result on previous election preference flows was 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 last week. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1673.
FUBARsays:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 12:45 am
dave says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 12:28 am
Isn’t it an existential threat? And they, who have the power to do whatever they want to do, just said, bugger it.
Completely logical.
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So you admit it you are a White Nationalist.
Europes welfare state is going to change they are now forced to spend massive money to defend themselves rather than sponge off Americans.
Well done Trump.
TC Alfred downgraded to Cat 1, running faster towards the coast.
Stay safe, folks!
FUBAR says Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 12:19 am
Exactly! Which means there’s no second chance if we stuff things up.
“How’s that early election going now?”
LOL. Albo always said he’d go full term.
The partisan hacks are trying to blame TC Alfred for their poor judgement and attempted meddling.
Face, meet egg.
It is pretty windy here now in the north of Brisbane near North Lakes. The wind is blowing at 45kph and we are now Category 1. So not too bad so far.
OK here on Bribie with Albert about to pass close to here. Winds around 60-70kmh.
All the best Davidwh
“Inside Trump and DOGE’s chaotic effort to release billions of gallons of California’s water”: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/07/climate/trump-doge-california-water/index.html
Wasted water and photo ops.
All the best for those in the cyclone’s path. My one piece of advice, don’t go outside if at all possible. Flying debris can be deadly.
bc agree wouldn’t recommend going outside at present. Albert is passing overhead as I write. Very lucky only a Cat1 cyclone now. We have been hit by eastern lows which had similar conditions to what we are currently experiencing.
Basically I think those folks south of us had it much worse than us.
New thread.
Great, it is official because an unknown source in the ABC has stated; “there will be no April 4th Election”.
Really folks. There was never ever going to be an earlier than May Federal Election.
A slight rise in Opinion Polling, lately, wasn’t the trigger for an early election.
The Prime Minister has consistently stated, from the election of his Government, that the parliamentary term would be the “full term”.
As encouraging as the recent polling suggests, why would any PM call an election, unnecessarily early and risk defeat.
Furthermore, the Opposition and the right-wing media which dominates Australia, would enjoy running a campaign based on the fact that the PM can’t be trusted because he had stated, on numerous occasions, that the Government would govern for the full term.
David Rowe
“Idiotus”
Mostly Interestedsays:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 8:17 pm
I’m clearly a plant, shh don’t tell anyone.
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Daisy, Snap Dragon or Titan Arum?
Canada’s Liberal party leadership vote closes today at 3pm Ottawa time (7am AEDT). And the result won’t take too long either. CTVNews should have coverage live but it might be geoblocked.