Federal miscellany: election timing and latest polls (open thread)

Cyclone Alfred potentially to thwart April 12 election plans; federal polling for South Australia; and the regular Essential Research and Roy Morgan results.

A report in Nine Newspapers yesterday quoted “a pair of ministers” expressing the view that Cyclone Alfred may, depending on its severity, deter the Prime Minister from calling an April 12 election on Sunday. Simon Benson of The Australian notes the optics of an election announcement would be particularly troublesome if, as appears likely, the most heavily affected areas encompass Peter Dutton’s own seat of Dickson. That would lock the government into a March 25 budget and an election in May – unless, as Benson notes, it pursued the no less optically troublesome path of extending the campaign to six weeks and holding the election on May 3.

On the poll front, the fortnightly Essential Research records little change on voting intention, with an increased Coalition result among women cancelling out a drop among men. Labor is down a point to 29% with the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation down one to 8%. The Coalition nudges ahead on the 2PP+ measure, now leading 48-47 after a 48-48 result last time. Leadership ratings that normally come monthly are included for the second fortnight in a row, with Anthony Albanese down two on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 49%, while Peter Dutton is steady on 41% and down one to 44%.

A question on firmness of voting intention reflects other polling in finding Coalition voters more likely to profess certainty in their intention (65% compared with 31% for “might change my mind” and 4% for “not yet decided”) than Labor voters (52%, 39% and 9%). Respondents were divided on the likely outcome, 29% apiece expecting Labor the Coalition to win a majority, with 22% for a Labor minority and 21% for a Coalition minority. A regular pre-election question on voting method finds more than ever planning to vote early (31%, up from 24% in the May 2022 survey), with election day down three points to 35% and postal down five to 19%. A monthly national mood indicator is slightly improved on a weak result last time, 34% holding that the country is heading in the right direction (up three) compared with 49% for the wrong track (down two).

DemosAU now has federal results for the South Australian poll for which state results were published earlier in the week. The poll shows Labor with a two-party lead in the state of 53-47, a swing to the Coalition of 1% compared with 2022. The primary votes are Labor 34% (34.5% at the election), Coalition 35% (35.7%), Greens 11% (12.8%) and One Nation 6% (4.8%). Anthony Albanese leads Peter Dutton 39-33 on preferred prime minister; 39% agree and 46% disagree that Australia is headed in the right direction. As with the state poll, it was conducted February 18 to 23 from a sample of 1004, but evidently required substantial weighting, as the methodology statement reports an effective sample of 440 and a margin of error of 4.8%.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll did not replicate the surge to Labor it recorded last week, with the Coalition recording a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 51-49 Labor lead last time. The primary vote were Labor 28.5% (down three), Coalition 40% (up three-and-a-half), Greens 13.5% (steady) and One Nation 4% (down one). The result on previous election preference flows was 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 last week. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1673.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,066 comments on “Federal miscellany: election timing and latest polls (open thread)”

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  1. That’s another two polls with federal Labor below 30%. Yet I can’t see the soul-searching you would expect within the ALP as to how they have ended up in this situation. It’s a similar inability for introspection as we’ve seen amongst the Democrats in the US. It’s the “they are all too stupid to appreciate our genius” approach to politics exhibited by so much of the left in politics these days.

  2. The federal election was called for May 21st on April 10th 2022, the Labor federal government wanted to follow a similar federal election pathway , so the federal election will be called around April 4/5th or 12/13th for likely a May 17th federal election

    The 2022 federal budget was held on 29th March 2022
    The 2025 federal budget will be held on 25th March 2025

  3. The Wombat,
    Where’s the introspection from your side that the Coalition(2+ parties not 1 like Labor), can’t ever seem to get high enough in the polls to lead anyone to believe that they will form majority government? 😐

  4. Nikki Savva has some excellent insights this morning… with this own goal by Dutton and his team demonstrating poor judgement.

    Trump already dominates the campaign. He sucks up oxygen. Leaders are forced to respond to whatever daily atrocity spews out of the Oval Office.

    The Left wants Albanese to shirtfront him. The Right pressures Dutton to be even more like him.

    That misguided desire, with Dutton’s early, effusive praise of Trump and the appropriation of his rhetoric and initiatives, threatens to wreck the Coalition’s chances of forging a minority government. Liberal campaign workers report that former Liberal voters have expressed reluctance to return to the fold because of the “Trumpification” of the party.

    This feedback supports Labor research that people alarmed by Trump are having second thoughts about voting for Dutton. For some, even the Liberals’ campaign slogan – “Let’s Get Australia Back on Track” – sounds too much like Trump’s “Make America Great Again”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/teals-set-to-seize-balance-of-power-in-sink-or-swim-election-20250304-p5lgwh.html

  5. NYT
    Tesla February sales in Europe have fallen between 40 & 70%, 50% in China & in Australia …….. 70%… keep it up Elon

  6. Lars Von Trier says:
    Thursday, March 6, 2025 at 6:40 am
    Out of time, Out of luck given the cyclone.

    Guess I better dust off those January predictions soon.
    —————————–
    So you are saying the federal opposition leader Angus Taylor/ another federal liberal party member will face a federal liberal party leadership spill in January 2026

  7. Disaster for Albanese who is heading at best for minority gov with Greens.

    Have you seen the Greens demands they want to tax massively US tech giants and smash USA corporations.

    Now that’s a trade war for sure that Albanese is heading into if he does form government.

    Small government is back Musk sorting out billions of waste his cars were always going to struggle against Chinas gov subsidies .

    2 days before WA decides a third term first ever for labor a big question will state labor be smashed for the housing and rental cost disaster in WA ?

  8. “ That’s another two polls with federal Labor below 30%. ”

    Wrong. Essential gives Labor a primary of 29 … out of 95 (with 5% undecided left in). That is a primary of over 30%.

  9. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Thursday, March 6, 2025 at 7:47 am
    “ That’s another two polls with federal Labor below 30%. ”

    Wrong. Essential gives Labor a primary of 29 … out of 95 (with 5% undecided left in). That is a primary of over 30%.

    ___________

    Perhaps someone failed their epi classes 🙂

  10. The only thing Peter Dutton and the federal lib/nat have done in the last week , was all about businesses
    How the federal lib/nats
    Will force people back to the offices and get rid of employees being able to disengage with their bosses

    The federal lib/nats do not care about majority of Australians

  11. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Thursday, March 6, 2025 at 7:47 am
    “ That’s another two polls with federal Labor below 30%. ”
    Wrong. Essential gives Labor a primary of 29 … out of 95 (with 5% undecided left in). That is a primary of over 30%.
    _____________________
    You look desperate when you have to use the undecideds to prove your point.

  12. Taylormade says:
    Thursday, March 6, 2025 at 8:03 am
    Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Thursday, March 6, 2025 at 7:47 am
    “ That’s another two polls with federal Labor below 30%. ”
    Wrong. Essential gives Labor a primary of 29 … out of 95 (with 5% undecided left in). That is a primary of over 30%.
    _____________________
    You look desperate when you have to use facts to prove your point.

    _________

    Fixed it for you 🙂

  13. Good Morning! Here’s your Daily News and Views Roundup.

    Good news first. The longest hit to Australians’ living standards since World War II has finally come to an end, with households showing signs of life and delivering Prime Minister Anthony Albanese the chance to use the coming election campaign to focus on his economic record.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/economy-turns-a-corner-as-shoppers-open-wallets-and-go-to-the-cricket-20250305-p5lh05.html

    Greg Jericho looks at the numbers. The Reserve Bank should be looking at these numbers and wondering why it waited until February to act. Yes, the worst may be behind us, but GDP figures provide little sense of an economy powering ahead at full steam.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2025/mar/06/rba-interest-rates-australia-inflation-data-gdp-growth

    Australia’s economy has turned the corner, and consumer spending was a big help By Stephen Bartos
    https://theconversation.com/australias-economy-has-turned-the-corner-and-consumer-spending-was-a-big-help-251262

    Chalmers accuses Coalition of ‘horrendous contradiction’ as Taylor appears to backflip on insurance crackdown. Despite Peter Dutton’s February proposal, shadow treasurer says divestment will be ‘confined to supermarkets and hardware’. You can’t trust the Coalition.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/05/chalmers-accuses-coalition-of-horrendous-contradiction-as-taylor-appears-to-backflip-on-insurance-crackdown

    A $1.1 billion pledge to fix the pothole-ridden Western Freeway will cut travel times for outer suburban voters as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese works to counter perceptions that Labor has taken its traditional support base for granted.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-tips-1-1-billion-into-pothole-ridden-freeway-20250305-p5lh6m.html

    Ousted CFMEU officials funding ads attacking Labor in marginal seats. Thugs.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-06/your-union-your-voice-funding-ads-targeting-labor-over-cfmeu/105014814

    Victorian independent candidate Alex Dyson has amassed a campaign war chest of more than half a million dollars since June 2024, forcing Liberal shadow immigration minister Dan Tehan to stay at home in his electorate and fight to hang on to his seat of Wannon. Will Dyson vacuum up Tehan?
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/from-5525-to-540-000-ex-radio-host-s-whopping-campaign-war-chest-in-third-tilt-against-liberals-20250304-p5lgta.html

    Niki Savva’s back with a prediction. Teals set to seize balance of power in sink-or-swim election.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/teals-set-to-seize-balance-of-power-in-sink-or-swim-election-20250304-p5lgwh.html

    Data from the long-run HILDA (House Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia) survey conducted by the University of Melbourne and the Melbourne Institute, which has been tracking 17,000 people since 2001, shows the end of pandemic-era financial support to the nation’s less well-off has been the driving force behind a lift in inequality.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/lucky-for-some-the-older-get-richer-in-the-worst-wealth-divide-in-two-decades-20250304-p5lguv.html

    Scott Yung, the Eddie Everywhere Chinese-Australian candidate for the NSW Liberals, has some questions to answer. The Liberal candidate, the mysterious $60,000 and the deleted podcast.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/the-liberal-candidate-the-mysterious-60-000-and-the-deleted-podcast-20250303-p5lgis.html

    A sudden, catastrophic loss helped shape Katy Gallagher. Today, she’s a crucial member of Anthony Albanese’s inner circle. With four portfolios, she’s also in the Coalition’s crosshairs.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-just-started-screaming-the-finance-minister-on-the-tragedy-that-changed-her-life-20250116-p5l4vb.html

    The Trump administration is pushing Australia to dramatically increase defence spending to counter China’s rise, with one of the US president’s top Pentagon picks calling for military spending to rise to at least 3 per cent of gross domestic product.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/trump-admin-to-australia-spending-56-billion-on-defence-isn-t-enough-by-half-20250305-p5lh23.html

    The dangerous folly of Australia’s come-what-may sycophancy towards Trump is on full display. A cloak of major party bipartisanship ensures no mainstream political challenge to the sanctified US-Australia relationship. By Paul Daley
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/mar/05/the-dangerous-folly-of-australias-come-what-may-sycophancy-towards-trump-is-on-full-display

    It has taken three years, but Europe is at last putting its collective economy on an industrial war footing. The sums of money are eye-watering. By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/europe-s-on-a-war-footing-and-it-s-going-to-turn-the-world-upside-down-20250305-p5lgzt.html

    Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese can learn three lessons from WA’s election results.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-06/western-australia-election-results-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton/100020814

    Minority government: what will it look like? By Michael Keating
    https://johnmenadue.com/minority-government-what-will-it-look-like/

    West Australian Premier Roger Cook has hinted that Labor’s long-held vision to build a circle route train line around the city could be acted on during the next term of his government.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/western-australia/metronet-circle-line-could-rise-from-ashes-if-labor-wins-another-term-20250305-p5lh92.html

    Major parties score poorly on environmental promises ahead of WA election.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/western-australia/major-parties-score-poorly-on-environmental-promises-ahead-of-wa-election-20250305-p5lh62.html

    Roger Cook is ‘hungry for government’.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/western-australia/roger-cook-is-hungry-for-government-20250305-p5lgxw.html

    Western Australia has one story about the gas industry. It won’t accept dissent from ‘over east’
    Saturday’s state election is unlikely to unseat Labor premier Roger Cook but, with both major parties supporting gas expansion, WA’s record threatens any national progress on emissions
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/06/wa-state-election-2025-gas-industry-impact

    This New York train station was the world’s most expensive. Sunshine in Victoria may have it beat.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/this-new-york-train-station-was-the-world-s-most-expensive-sunshine-may-have-it-beat-20250303-p5lgfl.html

    The key election promise NSW Labor has walked away from.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/the-key-election-promise-nsw-labor-has-walked-away-from-20250305-p5lh3l.html

    Australians lose more money to gambling in a year than government spends on aged care, report finds
    The $31.5bn lost each year likened to a ‘hidden, unspoken black hole’ that cost-of-living policies have not addressed.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/05/australia-gambling-losses-data-statistics

    We’re flying blind, now they’ve quietly buried our vital NSW Six Cities blueprint.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/we-re-flying-blind-now-they-ve-quietly-buried-our-vital-six-cities-blueprint-20250305-p5lgzj.html

    A child’s NAPLAN results will be fast-tracked to give teachers almost instant access to test scores under a plan outlined by the boss of the national curriculum authority.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-major-naplan-change-coming-to-schools-20250305-p5lh6g.html

    Promised mobile disaster alert system overdue and not operational as Cyclone Alfred approaches
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-05/new-disaster-mobile-alert-system-overdue-not-operational-alfred/105013644

    Cyclone Alfred: Everything Queensland and NSW residents need to know
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/queensland/cyclone-alfred-everything-queensland-and-nsw-residents-need-to-know-20250303-p5lgky.html

    Explainer: When and where is Tropical Cyclone Alfred likely to hit? Here’s what you need to know
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/05/where-when-will-tropical-cyclone-alfred-2025-make-landfall-predicted-to-hit-brisbane-cyclone-alfred-update-today-qld-queensland-nsw

    Brisbane on alert: these maps show the suburbs most likely to flood during Cyclone Alfred
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/05/cyclone-alfred-update-queensland-brisbane-flood-suburbs-risk-maps

    Evacuation warnings as delayed Tropical Cyclone Alfred starts to lash coast.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/evacuation-warnings-as-delayed-tropical-cyclone-alfred-starts-to-lash-coast-20250306-p5lha6.html

    Man waits ‘unacceptable’ 15 hours for treatment at Lyell McEwin Hospital’s emergency department in SA
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-05/lyell-mcewin-hospital-wait-time/105013378

    Wall Street has been betting on the “Trump put” – predicting that a potential backlash from financial markets would discipline the US president’s use of his beloved tariffs. It may have lost the bet, or perhaps not. By Stephen Bartholomeusz
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/has-the-market-s-trump-bet-been-wiped-out-maybe-or-maybe-not-20250305-p5lh0e.html

    ASX posts lowest close of the year as trade war kicks off.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/asx-set-to-fall-wall-street-dives-as-trump-sparks-trade-war-20250305-p5lgya.html

    Karen Middleton, who joined the Australian outpost of the historic British newspaper less than a year ago, is approaching three months without appearing at work, with staff stonewalled by editors and managers over the status of her return.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/guardian-staff-stonewalled-over-status-of-absent-political-editor-20250305-p5lh3t.html

    Trump turns Congress speech into a sordid campaign rally, igniting a Democrat fightback. In a long and menacing – but also boring – speech to Congress, Trump mocked his opponents. Across the aisle the resistance was stirring.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/05/trump-turns-congress-speech-into-a-sordid-campaign-rally-igniting-a-democrat-fightback

    ‘Somebody slap me and wake me up’: Democrats react to Trump’s speech. Sign waving in the chamber and a fiery outburst was followed by more forceful statements after the speech.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/05/democrats-reaction-trump-address

    United States cuts off intelligence sharing with Ukraine, CIA director confirms. Bastards.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-06/trump-zelenskyy-intelligence-sharing-war-ukraine-putin-russia/105016086

    Europe must stand firm against the unchecked power of U.S. digital giants By Paul Budde
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/europe-must-stand-firm-against-the-unchecked-power-of-us-digital-giants,19490

    Donald Trump’s relationship with Russia, particularly with Vladimir Putin, has been a subject of intense scrutiny and debate throughout his political career, and it remains a complex and evolving dynamic. Intrenched in decades of business ties, shaped by controversial statements, and punctuated by policy shifts in his second term as president, this relationship blends personal admiration, strategic alignment, and geopolitical consequences. Here’s a look:
    https://theaimn.net/sleeping-with-the-enemy/

    China has defiantly warned it is ready to fight any “type of war” with the US as tensions escalate between the two mighty economies over tit-for-tat tariffs.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/preview

    The world needs to act to inoculate ourselves from the slow burn effect of a world made safe for autocracy rather than democracy. What does an ideal world look like for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump? In a word: ugly.
    https://theconversation.com/safe-for-autocracy-the-world-according-to-putin-and-trump-251246

    Trump is turning the media into a mouthpiece of the regime. As the White House handpicks members of the press pool, questions for the president amount to fluffy valentines. By Lawrence Douglas
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/mar/05/trump-press-media-zelenskyy

    ‘Greenland is ours’: Greenland prime minister rebukes Trump pledge to acquire the territory
    President Donald Trump said during his joint address to Congress Tuesday night that the U.S. will have Greenland “one way or another.”
    https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/05/greenland-trump-purchase-reaction-024714

    Keir Starmer, unlikely leader of the free world. The British prime minister has had a shaky start at home — but is winning grudging praise for his response to Trump’s Ukraine pivot.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/keir-starmer-donald-trump-war-in-ukraine-diplomacy-volodymyr-zelenskyy/

    Cartoon Time!

    Alan Moir

    Matt Golding

    Dionne Gain

    Mark David

    Nicola Jennings on Europe’s age of rearmament

    From the Internet


    Seen yesterday on a public bus in Heidelberg, Germany.

    Enjoy!

  14. World News & Politics Patrol:

    Greenland PM rebuffs Trump: We do not want to be Americans: https://www.reuters.com/world/significant-that-trump-recognised-greenland-self-determination-denmark-says-2025-03-05/

    Ukrainian government sells T-shirts with viral Zelensky quote from disastrous Trump meeting: https://uk.news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-government-sells-t-shirts-112306585.html

    Canada won’t scrap tariffs unless all U.S. levies are lifted, official says: https://financialpost.com/news/economy/canada-wont-scrap-tariffs-unless-all-us-levies-lifted

    Trump officials say US paused intelligence sharing with Ukraine but signal it may not last long after fiery meeting : https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/05/politics/us-pause-intelligence-support-ukraine

    US stops intelligence sharing with Ukraine: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn52k5n5w24o

    French President Emmanuel Macron says ‘Russia is a threat to France and to Europe’: https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/03/05/french-president-emmanuel-macron-says-russia-is-a-threat-to-france-and-to-europe

    Starmer and Macron consider accompanying Zelensky to White House: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/03/05/starmer-and-macron-plan-to-accompany-zelensky/

    US Rep. Jasmine Crockett labeled ‘an icon’ for calling President Trump ‘Putin’s ho’: https://www.lonestarlive.com/politics/2025/03/us-rep-jasmine-crockett-labeled-an-icon-for-calling-president-trump-putins-ho.html

    Elon Musk’s AI chatbot says a ‘Russian asset’ delivered the State of the Union: https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/op-ed/ej-montini/2025/03/05/trump-speech-state-union-russia-elon-musk-grok/81507335007/

    Donald Trump Approval Rating Goes Negative For First Time in Presidency: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-negative-first-time-presidency-2039743

    Supreme Court tells Trump to pay out $2 billion to USAID after rejecting his bid to pause spending: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/supreme-court-usaid-funding-trump-b2709492.html

    ‘Amy Coney Barrett was a mistake’: Conservatives and MAGA influencers fume over Trump-appointed justice siding against president on foreign funding freeze: https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/amy-coney-barrett-was-a-mistake-conservatives-and-maga-influencers-fume-over-trump-appointed-justice-siding-against-president-on-foreign-funding-freeze/

    Trump admin plans to cut more than 70,000 jobs at Department of Veterans Affairs, memo says: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/05/politics/trump-admin-veteran-affairs-cuts/index.html

    Tariffs on cars from Mexico and Canada delayed by one month: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/05/business/tariffs-autos-mexico-canada-paused/index.html

    China says it is ready for ‘any type of war’ with US: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gmd3g2nzqo

    Russia’s river gamble fails near Kupyansk as Ukrainian forces hold the line: https://english.nv.ua/russian-war/russian-troops-fail-to-cross-oskil-river-near-kupyansk-as-ukrainian-forces-hold-the-line-50495280.html

  15. @Griff:

    “ You look reasonable when you use facts to prove your point.

    _________

    Fixed it for you ”

    #TheEnlightenment

  16. “Cyclone Alfred has slowed down considerably as it moves towards the Queensland coast, and could make landfall much later than previously predicted.” Now looking at Friday afternoon/ evening.

    “NSW SES issued a flood evacuation warning on Wednesday night for residents of northern NSW.
    The warning encompasses Tweed Heads, Ballina, South Golden Beach, Potsville and Hastings Point.”

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/cyclone-alfred-live-updates-bom-confirm-storm-to-hit-south-east-queensland-chance-alfred-could-become-category-3-more-sandbag-sites-open-in-brisbane-20250304-p5lgv5.html

    Good luck to Nadia, davidwh and Mavis and any others from SEQ / N.NSW.

  17. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Thursday, March 6, 2025 at 7:50 am
    The Pooper is back for an early morning dump.
    _________________________
    Intellectual Andy has turned up.

  18. More than 4,300 people are without power on the NSW north coast as Cyclone Alfred approaches.

    In Lennox Head and Ballina, more than 2,200 residents have lost power, while more than 1,500 have been affected at Tweed Heads. (per ABC).

    It is deceptively still here in Brisbane at present, with patches of blue sky.

  19. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Thursday, March 6, 2025 at 8:15 am
    @Griff:

    “ You look reasonable when you use facts to prove your point.

    _________

    Fixed it for you ”

    #TheEnlightenment

    ________

    The Enlightenment has been and gone. We now live in the Misinformation Age. Facts are an anathema to a large proportion of modern society, including quite a few new Bludgers we have picked up this electoral term 🙂

  20. The Trumperteers on PB this morning have a bit of the “blow your house down” going early, a little disappointed that the Mickey Mouse Clubs prediction that they were the leaders of the twenty first century is not working out.

    That Dutton and the Trumperteers haven’t come out this morning condemning the Congressional Shemozzle yesterday, as Dutton’s hero spent a few hours dividing the USA, openly mocking half the members of Congress, behaving with with textbook
    dictator decrees, destroying the world order and plainly lying, says everything about Dutton and the bogan opposition ministry and their unsuitability for forming a government.
    Senator Cash should come out from behind the whiteboard and apologise for her admiration for the similarly “buffooned hair apparent” making a fool of democracy in the USA.
    Good luck to the Australians awaiting the brunt of another of Australia’s natural disasters in the form of Cyclone Alfred.

    Once the natural disaster is mopped up, common sense will dictate another term of Labor with a significant input from the Teals, the Greens and independents.
    Albanese will support the Premier of Qld as is expected in an often ravaged Australia.

    Dutton and the LNP have used the cyclone to hide their election prophecy and now allowing the cyclone to camoflauge their Trump like adoration for the Orange dictator.

  21. Fargo61 @ #26 Thursday, March 6th, 2025 – 8:25 am

    More than 4,300 people are without power on the NSW north coast as Cyclone Alfred approaches.

    In Lennox Head and Ballina, more than 2,200 residents have lost power, while more than 1,500 have been affected at Tweed Heads. (per ABC).

    It is deceptively still here in Brisbane at present, with patches of blue sky.

    Aren’t the areas around Brisbane in the eye of the storm?

  22. Winds around a cyclone are clockwise. On the South side of the cyclone, the winds will be onshore, having passed over hundreds or thousands of kilometers of warm open ocean. To the North, the winds are offshore. Winds, rain and waves are worst on the Southern side of a cyclone on the East Coast. They lose intensity as they pass over land and emerge on the Northern side of the system.

    Also, Northern NSW doesn’t have a chain of islands to buffer the impact.

  23. Is William factoring in the undecided? Does it mean the LNP primary could be 40? Opinion polling has been upended because the stooges can’t face sub 30.

  24. CNN poll had 69% as very good or ok for Trump speech yesterday.

    Cyclone is coming as Trump has not really gone China yet.

    He blames them for costing him the election via covid and Australia this time will need to choose communists or democracy or get hit with Tariffs me thinks.

    Lefties around the world are walking around like stunned mullets they arrogantly thought Trump was never going to be president again.

    Geez if that bullet was a fraction straighter mind you I think Vance would be president anyhow .

  25. C@tmomma

    Aren’t the areas around Brisbane in the eye of the storm?
    ——-+—-
    The eye of the storm is still a couple of 100 kilometres east of Brisbane.

    It’s moving very slowly which is bad news as it will prolong the time of destruction.

  26. C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, March 6, 2025 at 8:51 am
    Am I right in thinking that if the cyclone is slowing down that means it is gathering in intensity?
    #notagoodthing
    _______________________
    Yes…
    More rain will get dumped on coastal areas before the cyclone hits.

    If the cyclone slows down as it approaches the coast, this would also see higher rainfall. “The highest mortality from tropical cyclones is associated with the rainfall,” he said. “Wind speed in this instance might not be the most damaging.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/05/where-when-will-tropical-cyclone-alfred-2025-make-landfall-predicted-to-hit-brisbane-cyclone-alfred-update-today-qld-queensland-nsw#:~:text=If%20the%20cyclone%20slows%20down,not%20be%20the%20most%20damaging.%E2%80%9D

  27. With the lib/ nats combined primary vote stuck at 37/38%
    The liberal party primary vote is under 30% nationwide

    Why the federal lib/ nats are not likely getting more than the 55 seats they currently hold

  28. I think it’s fun to watch the Liberal/Coalition goons refuse to discuss the fact that they haven’t been able to get to 45 yet. They’re going nowhere if they can’t. 😀

    Also, refusing to discuss the dodgy Liberal candidates like Scott Yung.

  29. 55-45 resolve coalition leading so labor how can you losers get above 45?

    Gov spending abc reports now is the same level as libs covid spending but there is no covid!

    Big government does not work.

  30. From C@tmomma DP

    If you look at job approval rating of US Presidents, Trump has lowest and second lowest in first 100 days.
    Until Jimmy Carter presidency, Job approval ratings were relatively high.
    From Reagan onwards and advent of operatives like Atwater, the country started getting divided into liberals and conservatives and not as Americans.
    From then onwards, US debt started to increase exponentially.

  31. Maybe Ukraine can replace the insubstantial Europeans and the Russian captured Americans with the more robust Ottomans.

    “ Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said (on) Tuesday that Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty are nonnegotiable for Turkey, as Ankara positions itself as a potential host for talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States. Turkey’s state-run Anadolu news agency reported.”

    https://www.turkishminute.com/2025/02/18/ukraines-territorial-integrity-is-nonnegotiable-for-turkey-erdogan-says4/

  32. Taylormade @ #19 Thursday, March 6th, 2025 – 8:03 am

    Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Thursday, March 6, 2025 at 7:47 am
    Wrong. Essential gives Labor a primary of 29 … out of 95 (with 5% undecided left in). That is a primary of over 30%.
    _____________________
    You look desperate when you have to use the undecideds to prove your point.

    You are desperate when you have to use pig-ignorant false arithmetic to attempt to mislead.

    Typical TailoredMerde.

  33. PP says
    “ Big government does not work.”

    I agree-small government works well for…….. big business, big miners, big money.
    But…
    Show me where it works for the little guy.

  34. CNN poll had 69% as very good or ok for Trump speech yesterday.
    ————————————–
    These polls are always positive for an address like this. The poll is specifically ONLY for those who watched the speech – the sample is heavily weighted to followers/voters of the party or the president that watch.

  35. The little guys aka small business on mass always vote libs so the little guys agree big government does not work.

    Simples…

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