A report in Nine Newspapers yesterday quoted “a pair of ministers” expressing the view that Cyclone Alfred may, depending on its severity, deter the Prime Minister from calling an April 12 election on Sunday. Simon Benson of The Australian notes the optics of an election announcement would be particularly troublesome if, as appears likely, the most heavily affected areas encompass Peter Dutton’s own seat of Dickson. That would lock the government into a March 25 budget and an election in May – unless, as Benson notes, it pursued the no less optically troublesome path of extending the campaign to six weeks and holding the election on May 3.
On the poll front, the fortnightly Essential Research records little change on voting intention, with an increased Coalition result among women cancelling out a drop among men. Labor is down a point to 29% with the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation down one to 8%. The Coalition nudges ahead on the 2PP+ measure, now leading 48-47 after a 48-48 result last time. Leadership ratings that normally come monthly are included for the second fortnight in a row, with Anthony Albanese down two on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 49%, while Peter Dutton is steady on 41% and down one to 44%.
A question on firmness of voting intention reflects other polling in finding Coalition voters more likely to profess certainty in their intention (65% compared with 31% for “might change my mind” and 4% for “not yet decided”) than Labor voters (52%, 39% and 9%). Respondents were divided on the likely outcome, 29% apiece expecting Labor the Coalition to win a majority, with 22% for a Labor minority and 21% for a Coalition minority. A regular pre-election question on voting method finds more than ever planning to vote early (31%, up from 24% in the May 2022 survey), with election day down three points to 35% and postal down five to 19%. A monthly national mood indicator is slightly improved on a weak result last time, 34% holding that the country is heading in the right direction (up three) compared with 49% for the wrong track (down two).
DemosAU now has federal results for the South Australian poll for which state results were published earlier in the week. The poll shows Labor with a two-party lead in the state of 53-47, a swing to the Coalition of 1% compared with 2022. The primary votes are Labor 34% (34.5% at the election), Coalition 35% (35.7%), Greens 11% (12.8%) and One Nation 6% (4.8%). Anthony Albanese leads Peter Dutton 39-33 on preferred prime minister; 39% agree and 46% disagree that Australia is headed in the right direction. As with the state poll, it was conducted February 18 to 23 from a sample of 1004, but evidently required substantial weighting, as the methodology statement reports an effective sample of 440 and a margin of error of 4.8%.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll did not replicate the surge to Labor it recorded last week, with the Coalition recording a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 51-49 Labor lead last time. The primary vote were Labor 28.5% (down three), Coalition 40% (up three-and-a-half), Greens 13.5% (steady) and One Nation 4% (down one). The result on previous election preference flows was 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 last week. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1673.
What happens when your choice for PM is between “Peter Dutton” and “Peter Principle”? …
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/teals-set-to-seize-balance-of-power-in-sink-or-swim-election-20250304-p5lgwh.html
You look for another option …
Australians appear set to hand decisive power to a group of raw (mostly) female MPs.
——————————————————————–
Sharkie has already announced she would lean to the Liberals and speak to Dutton first – stating the historical voting patterns of her electorate as the reason.
What have the others said?
In mid-2023, text messages surfaced between Higgins and Sharaz, which seemingly contradicted Gallagher’s assertion that “no one knew anything”. “Katy is going to come to me with some questions you need to prepare for,” Sharaz texted Higgins four days before the interview with Wilkinson went to air on Network Ten’s Th “She’s really invested now, ha ha.” He described Gallagher as an “old friend” and said he’d sent her an advance copy of the interview.
_____________________
Says it all for me.
An “old friend”.
You can’t get much clearer than that.
”
The world needs to act to inoculate ourselves from the slow burn effect of a world made safe for autocracy rather than democracy. What does an ideal world look like for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump? In a word: ugly.
https://theconversation.com/safe-for-autocracy-the-world-according-to-putin-and-trump-251246
”
What does an ideal world look like for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump? In a word: Evil.
Thanks for the DP’s c@t and HH.
I think LVT suggested utilising the euphemism “sub _ _” way back in Nov.
Having said that, BT was updated yesterday.
WB – if you have time – the recipe pls, or an explanation for the ALP primary falling 0.8% during Feb, and now settling at 30.1% on the BT computer. I sort of felt there was a bit of an uptick for the ALP during Feb after a static Jan.
* I note the Fed ALP primary in NSW fell to 24% (Resolve) & 27% (YouGov) in late feb. Has that been plugged in and because NSW is the largest state, it gets a bigger rating. I figure this is the case.
* I note also the Fed ALP primary in VIC jumped up on Yougov from 27 to 31 b/w Nov and Feb.
(References- the poll data tab – NSW & VIC tabs).
Anyway, I know you’re busy. If you have time for a quick comment on the BT meth, would be good.
.. and weather update in QLD. Very quiet and sunny here. A bit windy, but nothing to suggest there is a cyclone sitting 300 kms East off the SEQ Coast. Looks like it will hit now tomorrow evening.
”
Western Australia has one story about the gas industry. It won’t accept dissent from ‘over east’
Saturday’s state election is unlikely to unseat Labor premier Roger Cook but, with both major parties supporting gas expansion, WA’s record threatens any national progress on emissions
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/06/wa-state-election-2025-gas-industry-impact
”
Progress on emissions can only be made if LNP shows any willingness to cut emissions. Otherwise, Labor is writing political suicide note if it agrees to reduce emissions on its own.
People like Rex, Pageboi, mj and P1 saying it is all ALP fault is disingenuous.
And intelligent people like Diogenes saying that Dutton is only 5% worse than Albanese doesn’t help either.
The Wombat saying that only ALP has to do introspection and LNP is dandy is beyond my understanding. What I don’t understand is that Wombat heavily criticises Trump but is ok with Dutton although Dutton is Trump mini-me.
I am pleased the LOTO seems to be a Temu Trump, after all a quarter of Australians seem to think of TDJT 2.0 as favorable (WWAmericanAmericaThinking)
But just so we’re clear, bring on the downunder election where I’ll put crossbenchers above ALP above LN(C)P above religious/ fascist/ conspiracy nuts
(Given Nbnco just picked Bezos’ over Musk’s, well expect … ‘reciprocal tariffs’, another great reason to review AUKU$, meanwhile arsenal planes are closer than ever, https://www.twz.com/air/lockheeds-low-cost-cruise-missile-truck-is-now-in-testing)
Team Katich says:
Thursday, March 6, 2025 at 9:25 am
CNN poll had 69% as very good or ok for Trump speech yesterday.
————————————–
These polls are always positive for an address like this. The poll is specifically ONLY for those who watched the speech – the sample is heavily weighted to followers/voters of the party or the president that watch.
____________________________________________
It was CBS. The troll couldn’t even get that right. And you’re dead right about respondents TK.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-speech-joint-address-congress-poll-2025/
“ I’ll put crossbenchers above ALP above LN(C)P above religious/ fascist/ conspiracy nuts”
The only problem with that is that the LN(C)P is full of religious/fascist/conspiracy nuts. … It’s a pickle.
Is P1 running as female candidate for the trumpet of patriots party to break the strangle hold of male leaders?.
Thanks, Fargo. It’s fairly calm on the Goldie this morning, though the wind is
gusty. Good luck in your neck-of-the-woods.
_____________________________________________
I rang a friend in Wardell, just south of Ballina this morning. Her property is on the banks of the Richmond River, which broke its banks in Feb/March ’22.
Her house was a write-off. She’s gone to higher ground today in case Alfred causes the same or worse damage as the earlier flooding.
dave says:
Thursday, March 6, 2025 at 8:46 am
Lars was and is right about sub 30 triggering the stooges. Even Griff, an independent, has been badly triggered.
__________
Close, but no cigar, nath 🙂
Actually, I can be triggered by people not providing the sample size when reporting a percentage in surveys. Bit of a bugbear of mine. Especially when there is missing data. It happens too often in lower quality journal submissions one is asked to review.
Ignoring the undecided is not dissimilar. You are comparing apples and oranges.
One of the labor mean girls gets a puff piece in the Age today election is here!
Err labor led 57-43 now behind 49-51 what’s to not be triggered about?
That’s a first term gov as well going to an election with a hated leader and a band of misfit ministers.
Trend is not your friend maybe further behind me thinks they are waiting with their baseball bats.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2024/10/10/rebekha-sharkie-mayo-seat-centre-alliance-forget-the-frontbench/
Above is the article from October 2024, where Sharkie suggests she’d be “inclined” to deal with Dutton first. Katter would go with the Coalition no doubt. Haines possibly (given she’s in a regional seat).
I think the def “no ways” are Ryan, Steggall & Daniel. The others, not sure.
I don’t think Dai Le will hang on, but if she does it would be very risky for her to side with the LNP given her seat usually pulls a Labor primary > 55%
Hemmes Why he?
Peter Dutton has been accused of secretly jetting out of Queensland attend a fundraiser at billionaire hospitality mogul Justin Hemmes’ Sydney mansion.
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/peter-dutton-flew-from-brisbane-to-attend-fundraiser-at-justin-hemmes-sydney-mansion-amid-cyclone-alfred/news-story/2764516c726c5cf1fb1170cfe0c01f08
I don’t hold a bucket and spade…
I’m only triggered by folk saying that something is a fact, when it is not.
Nadia and her congaline of RWNJ fans (the company you keep, Nadia) only do this because they are mimicking the LNP/MSM game of substituting reporting and commentary with ‘influencing’.
Sub 30 is not, nor ever has been ‘baked in’. L’twit loves it, because it pisses folk around here who still adhere to basic principles of the enlightenment, and because he is a Liberal cypher. Nadia loves it, because of the likes she gets from L’twit and the cookers.
nadia88
2022 2PP in Fowler:
ALP 55.7% (down 8.3%)
LIB 44.3% (up 8.3%)
(Source: ABC news)
Morning all and thanks to Holden Hillbilly and Cat for the roundups.
The USA are callous betrayers cutting off intelligence to Ukraine. That costs them nothing so their arguments about US taxpayers paying for Ukraine fall flat. It is purely to put pressure on Zelensky to give in to Russia.
I look forward to the next opinion poll on the popularity of AUKUS. Maybe then Labor will dump this toxic Morrison idea.
Has Trump asked anything of Putin, the frickin aggressor, to end this war??
Anything at all?
Yep, not a good look for Dutton being a QLD’er, heading down to a fundraiser in Sydney
If you polled a thousand Australian voters at random and asked them, what achievement do you most associate with the Albanese Government, I am confident that by far the most common response would be “Nothing”. They would not be able to name anything specific. The Albanese Government broke the rule laid down by the film “Tropic Thunder”, which is “Never go full centrist.”
The Hawke Government was centrist but it also enacted Medicare.
The Keating Government was centrist but it also had the Native Title Act and the Redfern Speech.
The Rudd Government was centrist but it did a lot of stimulus spending during a recession.
The Gillard Government was centrist but it also legislated the NDIS.
The Albanese government has no major achievements and no sign of spine or principles that a typical voter would notice. You can’t say the same thing about the previous centrist Labor Governments. Even the governments that became unpopular were associated with specific achievements in the minds of voters.
Never go full centrist. It’s one of the Golden Rules of Australian politics.
van Badham has a response to Nicholas:
‘– are you disappointed in the increased spending for public health and public education…
… or the increase to working people’s take-home pay?
Was it delivering what economists have agreed is second only to Canada as the best counter-inflationary economic policy response in the world?
Is it the complete absence of corruption and sexual misconduct scandals that bothers you?
What about the life-changing women’s healthcare investment and system-wide redress of medical misogyny?
The achievement of gender parity in representation?
Show me where the anti-deepfake legislation hurt you.
Or was it free TAFE?
Or subsidised and free childcare?
What about not approving a single new coal mine in 2024?
Is it the increased arts funding?
What about the support for independent media and the respect for non-interference at the ABC?
What about their massive housing package, addressing 30 years of structural neglect?
Was it keeping the pre-election promise to the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander community to hold the Voice referendum, despite the enormous political risk?
Was it their solidarity with Ukraine?
Was it their ongoing support for a two-state solution?
Or their active commitment to addressing both Islamophobia AND anti-semitism?
Was it the emergency funding they expedited for flood disaster relief in North Queensland AS the floods were in progress?
What about revoking the Stage 3 tax cuts for the rich, to make the tax system more fair?
Is it the physical renewables infrastructure under construction right now that will power 8 million homes?
The Aged Care reforms ensuring 24/7 nursing care, expanded services and improved pay for workers?
Rebuilding our relationships with Pacific nations?
What about the transparency reforms and crackdown on labour exploitation and fraud in the NDIS?
The refusal of visas to fascists?
Historically low unemployment?
Great Barrier Reef funding?
The urgent care clinics?
The increased mental healthcare services?
That there are no longer children in detention, is that a disappointment for you?
Are you disappointed that they banned hate symbols?
The cheaper medicines?
The student debt reduction?
NBN upgrades?
The construction of new homes in Australia’s remotest communities?
The fair trade agreements?
The major road and rail developments?
What about achieving landmark campaign finance reform to ensure Gina Rinehart, Clive Palmer and a bunch of apartheid-curious cryptocurrency incels can’t buy themselves a government like Musk did.
And – despite doing all these things – Labor delivered a budget surplus.
Is that disappointing?
Our country is safe, we are not at war.’
Nicholassays:
Thursday, March 6, 2025 at 10:40 am
The Albanese government has no major achievements and no sign of spine or principles that a typical voter would notice. You can’t say the same thing about the previous centrist Labor Governments. Even the governments that became unpopular were associated with specific achievements in the minds of voters.
Never go full centrist. It’s one of the Golden Rules of Australian politics.
The Keys agree; if they had a Major Policy Change, they would be favoured to win the national 2PP
I can feel a Boerwar listicle coming on, given Propeller Cap Boy Nikki’s pile of merde (10:40am).
Never go full P1, Nikki.
Ps. You also forget: the Whitlam government was centrist but also implemented as much of the Whitlam Program as was possible in 2 years and 10 months.
PPS. @Boer (10:24am):
Oh Snap!
Nadia
“Yep, not a good look for Dutton being a QLD’er, heading down to a fundraiser in Sydney”
———————————–
I missed that. Dutton has a house in a threatened area and has still cut and run! Even after the PM, Premier and BCC Mayor all fronted media conferences. Shameful.
Shades of Morrison dashing off to Hawaii. How embarrassing.
Its March, not Christmas holidays. No excuses.
Trump has set off a series of actions that will very likely cause a severe contraction in the US economy. Because of the dysfunction in the Republican-dominated Congress, it’s likely that nothing much will be done to reverse or mitigate any economic shocks. On the contrary, the reflexes of the Republicans will likely make things worse.
There will be knock-on effects elsewhere. Whether these will include spreading recession to the rest of the world is uncertain. Certainly, any country that tries to emulate Trump will soon enough end up with the same results….economic disruption, real wage destruction and economic contraction.
We live in very uncertain times.
Regarding the demand from Trump that Australia increase its defence spend to 3% of GDP….we should ask a few questions: first of all….why? And second…how?
For mine, I’m absolutely opposed to spending anything for purposes that are designed by Trump. He is no friend of this country or of democracy. He is a tyrant in the making. Far from further deepening our connections with the US we should be doing whatever is necessary to detach ourselves from the US .
Nadia88,
I find it interesting that you use historical stuff to make current projections. Like Rebekha Sharkie’s statement that she would be inclined to support the Coalition, therefore you put her in the Coalition column. Maybe you should ask Team Katich or BK before you jump to conclusions about Mayo?
Also, you appear to grant Dai Le, another likely Coalition supporter, a sophomore surge but none of the other Teals. Is there a reason for this?
Excuse me but you must be forgetting the historic Voice referendum, one of the proudest moments in Australian (and ALP) history
Geoffrey Epsteinsays:
Thursday, March 6, 2025 at 10:50 am
“Excuse me but you must be forgetting the historic Voice referendum, one of the proudest moments in Australian (and ALP) history”
Someone appears to have completely forgotten about 60.06% of the electorate.
Victoria
“Has Trump asked anything of Putin, the frickin aggressor, to end this war??
Anything at all?”
———————————-
AFAIK nothing at all. Nothing I recall being reported since the Russia- USA talks in Saudi Arabia. This is why a lot of people are saying Trump really is a Russian asset.
Has Trump asked anything of Putin, the frickin aggressor, to end this war??
Anything at all?
——————————
The “art of the deal” was a typo. They dropped an “f”. Trumps deals stink like rotting cheeseburgers in a lift- for trump, better out than in. For everyone else – press the emergency button and hold your breath.
Cat
I know several people in SA and interstate who happen to live in “teal” seats or have worked with Teal MPs. All those who have given an opinion have said that those Teals were quality MPs. There is no sign of their vote going backwards. They also all have strong campaign teams.
This isn’t just a teal phenomenon. Since the days of Fred Mack and Peter Andren back in the 1990s, independent MPs that get elected Federally with good local name recognition have consistently proven hard to shift. Consider Andrew Wilkie, Haynes and Rebekah Sharkie. All three are virtual certainties.
The issues the teals campaigned on in 2022 are all still relevant. Who will they lose votes to?
Among the many achievements of this Government there is one stand-out: it has wound down the inflation it inherited from the previous, completely incompetent Reactionary outfit. This has made it possible for real wages to improve. They’ve done this while restoring the budget to surplus and generally improving the social estate in many ways, both great and small.
Nicholas is not going to give Albo any credit. He’s a cadet Reactionary.
Well Albert continues to be a pain in the butt. I have almost gone from hoping it would go away to wishing it would just get here so we can start to relax again. Anyway we are still ok at this time.
Wont the US still share some of this intel with, say, Australia and UK and then they would pass it on? How clearly would a directive like this percolate up and down at the Pentagon – in an administration as haphazard as this one? What processes are there that Trump can rely on to make sure a directive of – ‘dont share with Ukraine’ – means intel doesnt end up there via other channels?
I also wonder just how close the intelligence branches of Ukraine and the US are working. I’d be surprised if they were side by side. The drip feed would already be guarded.
“Yep, not a good look for Dutton being a QLD’er, heading down to a fundraiser in Sydney”
Yes, but Dutton not being from Labor, can do that with impunity.
And there are no LNP seats at risk in Queensland; there’s no way Dickson will change hands short of Dutton being caught with a dead boy.
IMO, Sharkie would be looking very closely at stability of government considerations as well as her and her electorates biases.
She will also be made aware (by me) of the little know fact that the ALP in Mayo won the 2PP v Libs in 2022. That is despite a long history of poorly funded ALP campaigns in Mayo.
China warns US it is ready for ‘any type of war’
China has warned the US it is prepared to fight “any type” of war after it retaliated against Donald Trump’s escalating trade war.
The trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies escalated when the US President doubled tariffs on all Chinese imports to 20 per cent.
“If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lian Jian this week.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/china-warns-us-it-is-ready-for-any-type-of-war/ar-AA1AkA9O?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=17cdf7aea93e4c0a915de7a06db6a70a&ei=24
davesays:
Thursday, March 6, 2025 at 8:41 am
Is William factoring in the undecided? Does it mean the LNP primary could be 40? Opinion polling has been upended because the stooges can’t face sub 30.
===========================================================
Actually, nearly all polls factor in the undecided vote; Essential is the exception here. To compare Essential to other polls, you need to distribute the undecided vote in the same way as other polls do.
PhRed, friggin CCP hawks. Dumb af. Xi more and more looking like their puppet.
I have met a bunch of Chinese navy chaps and they would make very good ambassadors for softening relations around the Pacific. Chinese economic might is plenty good enough to win hearts and minds and vastly increase their influence during a time of Trumplandia. Honestly, they dont need to take Taiwan by force. They dont need to rock boats with live fire exercises. We know they have a big military. Just show us the money with a smile and a little love.
“It’s the economy, stupid.” So what happens when you put “stupid” in charge of the U.S. economy? It goes belly up in about 40 days.
Elon Musk’s AI chatbot estimates ’75-85% likelihood Trump is a Putin-compromised asset’
President Donald Trump’s first major speech of his second term Tuesday night had all the hallmarks of one that could have been delivered by a ‘Russian asset’ compromised by Russian President Vladimir Putin
In fact, the chatbot named Grok – brainchild of Musk’s company xAI– said it was “75-85% likely” that the individual who addressed a joint session of Congress more or less works for Putin based on publicly available data, columnist EJ Montini wrote Tuesday. Putin himself, according to the AI chatbot developed by Elon Musk.
“Throughout the 1990s and 2000s, as Trump faced bankruptcies, he increasingly relied on funding from sources tied to Russia and former Soviet states,” Grok is reported to have said. “His sons, Donald Jr. and Eric, made statements reinforcing this: Donald Jr. in 2008 said, ‘Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets,’ and Eric in 2014 claimed, ‘We have all the funding we need out of Russia.’”
Along with Trump’s financial ties to Russia, his “consistent refusal to criticize” the Russian president were also cited as factors in Grok’s judgement, according to Montini. It also weighed Trump’s “ego,” saying that, coupled with his debts, “make him unwittingly pliable.”
Even with the attempts by the Greens to derail every initiative, There has been many Labor government achievements this term, many involve undoing Liberal stuff-ups..
1) Bring the wasteful spends to an end to the point where the budget is in surplus as it should be when inflation is an issues ( the Liberal are promising to crank up the porkballel again).
2) Bring Chinese relationships back to same form of sanity. The behavior of the right wind press in the recent weak would indicate they still want a war with our biggest trading partner.
3)Bring Robo debt to and end.
“It’s the economy, stupid.” So what happens when you put “stupid” in charge of the U.S. economy? It goes belly up in about 40 days.
———————————–
Economies are more resilient than we’ve been led to believe. And the cult wont care until it smacks them like a bag of spuds across the chops. The test will be how big powerful companies are going later this year and how main street is doing this time next year.
Andy,
The Bludgertrack estimate NATIONALLY for the Labor primary is 30.1%. Its sub 30 across the Eastern seaboard on Bludgertrack.
Maybe you’ve personally strangled a chicken and examined the entrails but on William’s objective measure it can be said the ALP is on track for sub 30 and worse. To be clear that is a decline of 10% of an already anaemic 2022 election vote.
Whatever it is Albo is selling – has been rejected by the Electorate. Bring on minority government it cannot come soon enough.
The spendathon must and will end – when oversight of spending is handed to Allegra post election!
So prices are way higher than they were three years ago, but be grateful to Albo now that after three years they’re still rising but just not as fast. Maybe not the winning message you think it is.
I thought Dutton was busy sandbagging his and his aunty’s houses?
The federal lib/nats combined primary vote will be struggling to get over 36%
And no political evidence of the federal lib/nats are getting the non lib/nats voters , why the 2025 federal election is not going to be close, the federal lib/nats are going to lose ground on 2022 federal election
The spendathon must and will end – when oversight of spending is handed to Allegra post election!
_______________________
Sukkar has been out and about promising sports grants like it was 2015 again… You mean to say he can’t waste more cash doing that, putting in CCTV in religious organisaitons buildings or not building car parks once Dutton wins minority government…
The National Party has always liked to label the city as elite. The fact of the matter is that many in the city are doing it tough. All of them receive little or no support from a decade of LNP governments that only pork-barreled their own seats. Then the filthy rich National Party bastards, like Barnaby, had the audacity to label the city as undeserving because they are supposedly elite. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.
https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2021/electorates-government-grants/