On the eve of Western Australia’s state election, the first two public polls have emerged since the start of the campaign, with little to separate them. Newspoll in The Australian finds Labor leading 57.5-42.5, out from 56-44 in its poll four weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 44% (up two), Liberal 29% (down three), Nationals 5% (up two), Greens 10% (down two) and One Nation 3% (down one). Roger Cook’s ratings are all but unchanged with respect to both respect to his performance, with approval steady on 55% and disapproval up one to 38%, and his lead as preferred premier, in from 54-34 to 53-34. Libby Mettam is up four on approval to 43% and one on disapproval to 42%. The poll was conducted last Thursday to Wednesday from a sample of 1061.
The West Australian has a result from DemosAU putting the Labor two-party lead at 57-43, from primary votes of Labor 43%, Liberal 30%, Nationals 5% and Greens 11%. The results at the 2021 election were Labor 59.9%, Liberal 21.3%, Nationals 4.0% and Greens 6.9%, with a two-party preferred of 69.7-30.3 in favour of Labor. A preferred premier question produces a narrower result than Newspoll, with Cook’s lead at 47-32. Forty-nine per cent rated that the state was headed in the right direction, with 31% disagreeing. The poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 1126.
The accompanying report also relates that both parties believes themselves to be ahead in Dawesville, with Liberal polling put them at 52-48 and Labor’s at 54-46, and quotes a Labor source saying the party was “in the game” in South Perth and “close, but feeling more confident” in Albany.
UPDATE: I have a paywalled article in Crikey on the election, with a focus on the performance and prospects of the Liberal Party.
The Libs may have been smarter to put Basil in.
IF Basil gets elected. On these numbers, he’ll be struggling.
A great polling result – looking towards a possible, narrow loss of a couple of seats.
Hopefully, Basil doesn’t get up – but then we Easties may be cursed with him calling the footy when Freo & the Weagles matches are broadcast.
Lars, the Liberals would have been smarter if they had ignored that loudmouthed self promoting Basil, entirely.
The Sky News election broadcast should be amusing once again.
This augurs very well for WA Labor. The 2021 election was extraordinary and not a realistic yardstick for comparison. Surpassing the 2017 result is still excellent.
Further, holding onto the reformed upper house will allow legal reform.
This may also mean the effective end of the WA nationals. They are as relevant as the DLP.
Looks like housing is a nothing burger to voters on these polls.That is the big weakness of labor in WA.
Lars Von Trier says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 5:15 am
The Libs may have been smarter to put Basil in.
————
Baz sounded like a grating prick on the ABC radio debate with John Carey yesterday.
“ Program: Labor Minister John Carey and Liberal Candidate Basil Zempilas debate ahead of state election”
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/perth-mornings/zempilas-and-carey-debate/105017688
I have an image of the WA Newspoll table on my Bluesky post.
https://bsky.app/profile/leroylynch.bsky.social/post/3ljqhhi32ek2p
More on the WA Demos state level poll below. (+/-) figures vs. November.
TPP: ALP 57 (+2) L/NP 43 (-2)
Primaries: ALP 43 (+2) LIB 30 (-4) NAT 5 (+1) GRN 11 (-1) OTH 11 (+2)
https://thewest.com.au/politics/wa-election-2025/wa-election-2025-labor-tipped-for-a-2017-sized-victory-but-the-libs-are-back-c-17948716 ($)
Demos press release
https://demosau.com/news/wa-poll-points-to-clear-wa-labor-win/
Methodology statement
https://demosau.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/DemosAU-WA-Poll-State-Results-March-4-5-2025.pdf
The last WA Demos poll from November is here.
https://demosau.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/WA-Poll-30-Oct-to-Nov-4-2024-1.pdf
The problem with Western Australia is that their one media owner town and next time round with Basil facing Cook, the media barron will be gunning for his mate Basil. The media run this country and we need to do something about their hold on it. Little in regards to good policy is being done as a result.
I wonder how much of this result for Labor is due to Trumps chaos in the US of A.
The latest YouGov poll has Federal Labor 51 to 49 two party preferred, Labors first positive result in over 8 months.
MikeK, I reckon that fraudster/rapist Trump is having an effect, if only minor. Not only are he and his mates policy stupid, but they come across as arrogant pricks.
The fact that some Liberals, that loud mouth Senator Cash from WA in particular, said that they want to import Trumpism to Australia wouldn’t have helped. All that Trump has achieved so far is chaos and note that his local sycophants have quietened down considerably.
MikeKsays:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 10:31 am
“I wonder how much of this result for Labor is due to Trumps chaos in the US of A.”
Probably like half a percent, tops.
In case I forgot to post it, I predict a re-elected Majority Labor state-government. I’ll come back later to post my 2PP estimate.
CW
The West newspaper and its affiliates have long been supporters of the Liberal side of politics. I have lost count of the editorials which stick it to Albanese/Cook or both. Nobody in the West is fooled by Basil Z’s entry into politics as something that has been burning him for some time. Rather it is the siren call of his boss.
I am sure the Liberals (Nationals?) will regain some of there former nominally “Liberal” seats on Saturday.
I think two things are also likely
One is that the Liberals will be in opposition until two Federal elections have been and gone.
Two….after a period of time (relatively short) Libby Mettam will be replaced, most likely by Zempilas.
Other more debatable items relate to the much reduced impact/influence of the West newspaper on political matters and the observation this election is purely local….though with similar issues to many other places.
I doubt whether there is any kind of Trump tinge though Mettam’s pathetic “We are all under one flag” thereby aping Dutton on the Aboriginal flag and he, in turn, using the Trump play book on this shows the corrosive impact of the Trump message on the Liberals.
Agree with Arange above…..
Mainly local factors in WA at this election, but of course the whinge factor about housing, cost of living, health and the rest are the same here as across the rest of Oz and overseas.
Liberals have tried hard to blame Cook and Labor for this but the local voters are not stupid and as our ‘local’ news is dominated from what is happening “over East” voters can see for themselves that many governments are struggling with the same issues.
Dr Jags Incident
Labor MP owns share in Key Largo clinic at centre of probe into the death of Sandipan Dhar
https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/labor-mp-owns-share-in-key-largo-clinic-at-centre-of-probe-into-the-death-of-sandipan-dhar-20250306-p5lhk0.html
Unsurprising results. I’ve seen a stronger performance for Labor in the second week of early voting in terms of who is taking which HTVs. Might represent a late swing, might just be the changing character of who votes at what point during early voting.
Interesting that DemosAU didn’t ask about One Nation (and good to see them on just 3% in the Newspoll).
A comparison of this poll result and the 2021 result, would suggest that the L.P. may gain back the following seats: Churchlands (1.6%), Warren Blackwood (2.3%), Nedlands (3.0%) & Carine (4.0%).
These were probably ALP oncers and may return to the LP.
After Carine, the next government seat with the lowest margin is Bateman on 6.7%.
After Bateman, the margins blow out into 9%+ territory.
Local conditions may prevail in other electorates but my understanding is that, unlike Queensland, their doesn’t appear to be a hugely negative swing against the government.
@ C@tmomma
Churchlands is on a 1.6% margin, so Basil not getting elected will be an absolute disaster for the Liberals. IMO Basil not getting elected would be a blessing in disguse for the Liberals.
Its worth noting the Teals have mounted strong campaigns in both Churchlands and Cottosloe, and it’ll be intresting to see how that goes.
Should Basil not get elected, I’d wager it’ll be the third election in a row where WA Labor significantly outperform publicly published polling, and I’ll again still be scruitineering when the result is declared.
I’ll be scruitineering at a booth in Swan Hills, where the Liberals have wheeled out one of their go to serial candidates for seats they have no realistic prospect of winning. He had taken to parking in the disabled bay at prepolling, despite being fined every day for it, before the WAEC stepped in & laid down the law on parking at the venue.
For the Liberals any claw back of 10 seats or more will be seen as ‘putting Labor in its place’ and providing a ‘real opposition’ to ‘save democracy’ in WA.
After the West begrudgingly accepts the likely Labor win, it will spend a week telling its “readership” what a great job the Liberals have done and warn Labor the end is nigh (in four years time),
Not sure anything can be drawn from this election into the Federal sphere though if the Labor win is going to be still as big as the polls suggest, hard to believe WA will suddenly fall in love with Dutton.
@Tricot
My own view is that Dutton’s plans to build a NPP in Collie will hand Forrest to Dr Sue Chapman, the Teal who is mounting a strong campaign in the seat.
Your thoughts?
Very interesting polling. I’m predicting churchlands, Nedlands, carine, Kalgoorlie, Geraldton, Warren Blackwood and south Perth will go but not sure beyond that.
Bateman will be interesting. Libs candidate was a surprise choice and former member Dean Nalder backing the nationals candidate.
I saw comment on whether Dutton’s embrace of Trumpism is a negative factor for Liberals in WA.
Certainly if Trump tariffs China, and China’s demand for resources shrinks, it will damage the WA economy.
Embracing Trump is not a strategy I would be adopting in Dutton’s shoes.
(Though I’d hate to think I would ever do something that would leave me in them.)
Grimmace
I don’t know enough about that seat to comment, but as an aside, son who lives in one of the leafy-green (former) Liberal seats has already voted and this was for a Green or Independent. Usually, his sentiments lie with Labor but he has a feeling the independent he voted for might help to keep the Liberal candidate out.
At the moment, WA voters are very aware of what they are voting for and who they are not voting for. I gather pre-poll votes are over 300,000 now with my crew included as we are heading up the coast for the weekend and out of our normal neck of the woods.
I predict a state-wide 2PP of 57.0 to Labor. (I aim to be within 1.5 of the result)
My prediction – Biggest anti-Labor swings will be in their traditional ultra safe seats, probably where most of biggest anti-vaxxers are and still up in arms on what McGowan’s vax policy was. The swings in the traditional blue ribbon seats that currently Labor hold will be tamer.
Churchlands, Warren-Blackwood, Carine, Bateman, Geraldton, Albany, Kalgoorlie and Nedlands I think will be lost.
I think Labor can hang on to South Perth and Scarborough, which would be a great effort by them if they did. Dawesville, Riverton and Kalamunda should be close.
Labor 45
Libs/Nats 14
The bar has been set.
I give credit to the ALP here – they oppose just about everything that the Federal ALP are trying to do to damage WA. No need to vote Liberals when the WA ALP are doing exactly what a Liberal Government would do. They even criticised the Federal ALP’s industrial relations laws that are causing a rise in Union problems in the mining sector. They want to keep expanding the Gas industry and all mining. They oppose the live sheep export ban. They killed off their ridiculous cultural heritage laws.
It is exactly the two election path to Liberal victory that I have talked about since the last election. Build a base. If Basil gets in, then give him a couple of years in Parliament to gain experience and then a smooth transition to him as Leader for a 2029 tilt.
I might be wrong, but I think the polls are a little harsh and expect a slightly better result. We do not appear to be an “it’s time” point for the ALP, but the WA LNP isn’t on the nose like it used to be, and Mettam has done a good job given the circumstances.
I voted last weekend – not that it will make much difference to the result in Perth.
Grimace @ https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/03/07/newspoll-57-5-42-5-to-labor-in-wa-demosau-57-43/#comment-4469930
As a Forrest elector and (very) amateur psephologist, I’m finding it difficult to judge the likely Sue Chapman effect. Climate 200 didn’t pony up the cash without good reason, but she has a fair hill to climb. Are there enough anti-Dutton Libs, Greens unhappy with MCM and strategic ALP and other supporters to make her competitive?
Dutton’s proposal for Collie may well lift her support base, although those opposed to an offshore wind area adjacent to Bunbury presumably won’t. They are unlikely to be her natural constituency, of course. Time will tell!
Yeah – this kind of result wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Outside of some kind of return of the “natural order” – the Liberal campaign really hasn’t given justification for them to get anywhere close to governing.
If these are the numbers tomorrow, Labor and the Greens should have a comfortable majority in the upper house. I’m guessing 16 Labor and 4 Greens so that they hold 20/37 seats.
On the other side, it could be interesting to see if the Nationals can get 1 or 2 members elected. If they get over 5% then that puts it more likely at 2 MLC’s. The Liberals meanwhile are looking at about 11 MLC’s.
That leaves 4 seats on the crossbench, one of which being One Nation and the rest to be fought out between Legalise Cannabis, Australian Christians, SFF and the other microparties.
I must plead ignorance of most of the campaign as coverage has been sparse on the eastern seaboard. Normally I do try my best but overseas/national events have dominated the press/tv etc. So I am guessing there has not really been any real scandals or else we would have heard more.
I did note that some candidates had been caught expressing opinions on social media in the past that fail to align with their parties but that is basically par for course now.
Not sure if this is new polling, or a rehash. Interesting sentiment all the same
https://www.6pr.com.au/labor-pegs-basil-zempilas-as-a-liability-to-the-liberal-party/
Labor’s decision to be so vocally critical of Basil Zempilas has been mystifying to Perth Today host Simon Beaumont.
However, new polling suggests the Labor Party believes Zempilas’s campaign to become the Liberal member for Churchlands is actually a liability to the Liberal Party.
Tom Rabe, Australian Financial Review, explained to Simon that the Liberals may have overestimated Basil’s popularity among voters and Labor is using this to their advantage.
“Labor are convinced that the Libs are miscalculating Basil’s upside, and inversely, there are some people in the Liberal Party who think Labor have completely miscalculated this and Basil’s going to prove extremely popular and a really massive asset to the party,” he said.
Click PLAY to hear about the polling results.
Sounds like Labor propaganda but we will find out tomorrow
If Zempilas wanted a seat in the Legislative Assembly, he’d have a(n even) better chance if he ran in Nedlands because there’s no incumbent (current Stretton moving to Legislative Council), Labor apparently running dead there and it’s also a marginal seat neighbouring Churchlands.
This is in contrast to Churchlands where Tonkin, from what I’ve heard from friends, is active in this electorate and is apparently campaigning hard there. I would be surprised if Churchlands is somehow a Labor retain but it’d be something that would make sense to me when looking back on it. Either way, I think it’d be safe to predict Churchlands being a LIB gain.
Speaking of predictions, I don’t think I’ll be making too much changes to it, maybe a slightly better prediction to account for this poll.
SEAT COUNT (Post Redistribution for reference)-
ALP- 54 (53 seats + Oakfield)
LIB- 2
NAT- 3 (I’m counting Mid West here)
SEAT COUNT (AFTER ELECTION)-
ALP- 42 (-12)
LIB- 11 (+9)
NAT- 6 (+3)
SEAT CHANGES-
– Nedlands, Churchlands, Carine, Scarborough, South Perth, Bateman, Dawesville, Kalamunda, Kalgoorlie flip to LIB from ALP
– Warren-Blackwood, Geraldton, Albany flip to NAT from ALP
– Mid-West gain for NAT
SEATS TO WATCH:
– Riverton
– Bicton
– Murray-Wellington
– Collie Preston
– Darling Range
– Jandakot
– Forrestfield
– Fremantle (interested to see how IND will go)
– Hillarys
– Kingsley
– Pilbara
These seats act as litmus test to see how well ALP or Coalition did well on election night. This list is compiled from the “What might a 14% swing look like in WA” page in The Tally Room and ABC’s WA election preview by Anthony Green. May god bless this man for his work and I hope he has a great retirement.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/03/western-australia-2025-final-polls.html
Western Australia 2025: Final Polls Predict Another Drubbing
Bludgeoned Westie says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 8:19 pm
If Zempilas wanted a seat in the Legislative Assembly, he’d have a(n even) better chance if he ran in Nedlands because there’s no incumbent (current Stretton moving to Legislative Council), Labor apparently running dead there and it’s also a marginal seat neighbouring Churchlands.
———
I understand his primary residence is in Floreat which is within Churchlands so that would explain why he’s running there.
He is a polarising figure and while he should get over the line if he does I doubt it will be a huge victory I think he’s a superficial blowhard but that will probably appeal to the electorate enough to be elected.
I reckon the hesitancy against Basil Zempilas is probably because he seems to be quite similar to Troy Buswell and all the headaches he caused for the WA Liberals in his time.
mjsays: Friday, March 7, 2025 at 11:26 pm
“I understand his primary residence is in Floreat which is within Churchlands so that would explain why he’s running there.”
Ah, that explains why he’s running in Churchlands, I never knew he lived in Floreat, and tbh, I never bothered to looked up where he lived bc I felt that it was weird. I just assumed he chose Churchlands bc Labor holds it on a really tight margin.
I’m amazed that there doesn’t appear to be any sort of ‘natural correction’ incoming for this WA election tomorrow. Bilbo aka man with the big stick I was in a state of shock ti read that labor’s McGowan high water mark is at risk of being bettered?!!!?.
Beyond the quirks of the uniquely independent status of the WA nationals, the old ‘zonal’ weighting of electorates that speak to the ‘land doesn’t vote’ quips of the democrats regarding the American electoral college etc I must profess to be a novice when it comes to WA state politics.
Perhaps these forecasts of another WA LNP state wipeout could be telling for the next election in May?. Dutton should be concerned if there is no natural correcting of state seats in WA- could be the difference between Albo having some mandate to negotiate minority or a Dutton resounding majority called at by 10pm election night.
By chance I have a cousin who was elected as a state Labor MP in a previously safe as houses part of metro Perth Liberal heartland in 2017. I for sure thought he would have been on the racks by now but alas that are talking him up as increasing an already wincing 20%+ margin. The WA Liberal caucus of 2 complains about not having any traditional opposition staffer and other resources for their poor prognosis . So it begs the question- where is big Gina when she’s needed?.
McGowan won’t be bettered, how can you beat 70-30? I think the state govt does have to some extent a halo effect on fed Labor in WA but it’s not big enough to ensure a second term federal Labor govt. I don’t think it’ll matter much the Liberals aping Trump will work against them as we see his administration spiral out of control which will reflect badly on the federal Libs.
New thread.
So Basil is being compared to the loud mouthed chair sniffer. The Liberals still run by extremists and church groups that no one voted for. Libby flip flop Mettam, no policies just the ones her backers give her.