As Anthony Albanese rules out the April 12 election he had been widely expected to call this weekend before Cyclone Alfred came into view, YouGov presents his government with its most encouraging poll result in some time. The poll credits Labor with a two-party lead of 51-49, reversing the result of the last such poll a week ago (YouGov had hitherto reported around once every three weeks – presumably this portends a quicker pace ahead of the election). The two-party headline is the product of a recently adopted preference formula which, not unreasonably, assumes weaker flows from minor parties to Labor than in 2022. A strict application of flows from the last election would likely have produced a result of 52-48.
On the primary vote, Labor is up three points to 31%, the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down one to 13%, One Nation is down one to 7%, and Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of the Patriots remains on 1%. Anthony Albanese is up two points on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 51%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 43% and up one to 47%. Albanese holds a 45-39 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 42-40. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1504.
The Trump effect – the elevation of uncertainty about the future – will help re-elect Labor. This was almost certainly a factor in Labor’s really impressive victory yesterday here in WA. By the time the Federal election is held in May voters will have fully tuned in to the catastrophe that is Trump-in-power.
Voters will rally to the relative safety of the Government they know. I think the Liberals are at risk of losing quite a few more seats. The Trump-cringe will haunt the Reactionaries, making it difficult for them to campaign. Wherever Dutton goes he will remind voters of Trump. And that will mean that whenever he campaigns he will be campaigning for Labor. We’ve already seen this. Dutton has gone into hiding.
In another effect, Trump is already hurting the property market. Buyers are holding back….conserving their cash, just in case. Buyers are already starting to factor in the prospects of a Trump-led recession. This will undoubtedly affect political expression in the same way as it is influencing investment behaviour.
Trump has saved the day for the Canadian Liberals, for President Macron, for Keir Starmer. He is going to assist Albo too. He has ruined Le Pen’s run. He will stem Dutton’s hopes. Trump. The emperor is naked and the populace do not like what they see..
Quentin perhaps- but I’d err more on the side of genuine concern coming through from benson et al because he knows Dutton will now have to develop policies to not only prosecute but also release.
They know that having to make Dutton formulate a budget reply will be disastrous.
They know that Albanese was steadfast and decisive in declaring support for Ukraine just as Europe was cobbling together a coalition of the ‘willing’
They know that Labor now gets to bask in the glory of incumbency as they mop up SE QLD and begin work on a milk and honey budget.
But most importantly they know that mimicry of trumpism won’t work in a nation that values and relies on social safety net no matter your political or social economic status.
Just as work choices failed spectacularly for Howard so will this emulation for Dutton.
The news limited ranking committee has obviously seen the writing on the wall.
Hack, woke, Partisan says:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 10:26 pm
The Trump effect – the elevation of uncertainty about the future – will help re-elect Labor. This was almost certainly a factor in Labor’s really impressive victory yesterday here in WA. By the time the Federal election is held in May voters will have fully tuned in to the catastrophe that is Trump-in-power.
….
Yep a fair summary. The Liberal cheer leaders are still trying to boost Trump. Dutton is still trying to follow the republicans. As they have been trying for decades. Their ability to make policy has gone, their ability to run elections has been outsourced.
World News & Politics Patrol:
Trump wants to see more than just a minerals deal to restart aid and intel to Ukraine: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/trump-wants-see-just-minerals-deal-restart-aid-intel-ukraine-rcna195508
Poland’s PM on latest Russian strikes on Ukraine: This is what happens when someone appeases barbarians: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/03/8/7501905/
Kyiv furious as Germany suggests Ukraine should fight Russia until 2030 to shield Europe: https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/03/09/you-will-not-avoid-war-kyiv-furious-as-germany-suggests-ukraine-should-fight-russia-until-2030-to-shield-europe/
Israel cuts off electricity to Gaza: https://www.jfeed.com/news-israel/ssv2jp
Macron to convene European army chiefs willing to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-says-he-will-hold-meeting-european-army-chiefs-paris-next-week-2025-03-05/
Germany to reach out to France and UK over sharing of nuclear weapons: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/09/germany-to-reach-out-to-france-and-uk-over-sharing-of-nuclear-weapons
Trump says Ukraine may not survive even with US continued aid: https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/trump-says-ukraine-may-not-survive-even-with-1741537523.html
Trump suspending US intelligence sharing is ‘suffocating’ Ukraine’s hope, says Ben Wallace: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/08/trump-suspending-us-intelligence-sharing-is-suffocating-ukraine-hope-says-ben-wallace
Trump says tariffs on Mexico and Canada ‘could go up,’ declines to rule out possible recession: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/09/business/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-recession/index.html
Trump Aide Confidently Contradicts Prez With Recession Promise: https://www.thedailybeast.com/commerce-sec-lutnick-splits-from-trump-over-economy/
Donald Trump ‘goes cool’ on Britain after King Charles meets Zelensky at Sandringham: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/trump-gone-cool-on-britain-after-king-charles-met-zelensky-b1215574.html
Trump Privately Fuming After King Charles Makes Other Leaders Feel ‘Special’ Too: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-privately-fuming-after-king-charles-makes-other-leaders-feel-special-too/
Trump Plays MAGA Civil War Mediator for Bannon and Musk: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-plays-maga-civil-war-mediator-for-bannon-and-musk/
Swedes launch boycott of US goods in response to recent policy shifts: https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/03/07/swedes-launch-boycott-of-us-goods-in-response-to-recent-policy-shifts
RFK Jr. urges people to get vaccinated amid deadly Texas outbreak: https://www.axios.com/2025/03/03/kennedy-jr-measles-outbreak-vaccine
Ukrainians in America fear for their lives after Trump deportation threat: https://inews.co.uk/news/world/ukrainian-america-trump-deportation-fear-3574363
US Secret Service shoots armed man near White House overnight: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-secret-service-shoots-armed-man-near-white-house-agency-says-2025-03-09/
Musk’s DOGE team reportedly tried to fire air traffic controllers amid multiple plane crashes but was stopped by the transportation secretary: https://www.aol.com/finance/musk-doge-team-reportedly-tried-185321678.html
Noem Directs Polygraph Use to Target Homeland Security Leaks: https://news.bgov.com/bloomberg-government-news/noem-directs-polygraph-use-to-target-homeland-security-leaks
US Cartoons:
