As Anthony Albanese rules out the April 12 election he had been widely expected to call this weekend before Cyclone Alfred came into view, YouGov presents his government with its most encouraging poll result in some time. The poll credits Labor with a two-party lead of 51-49, reversing the result of the last such poll a week ago (YouGov had hitherto reported around once every three weeks – presumably this portends a quicker pace ahead of the election). The two-party headline is the product of a recently adopted preference formula which, not unreasonably, assumes weaker flows from minor parties to Labor than in 2022. A strict application of flows from the last election would likely have produced a result of 52-48.
On the primary vote, Labor is up three points to 31%, the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down one to 13%, One Nation is down one to 7%, and Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of the Patriots remains on 1%. Anthony Albanese is up two points on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 51%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 43% and up one to 47%. Albanese holds a 45-39 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 42-40. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1504.
Good Morning Bludgers!
How’s Sub _._ going?
Oh wait. It isn’t. 😐
All good here
Can we now add the obvious Dutton + Trump + Vance Conservative Coalition with “would likely have produced a result of 52-48.”…. pollsters will be missing this .. sure as eggs.
I’ve come across a few Australian Flat Earth’s that support Trump & Dutton.. a huge turnoff to sensible Australians.
One Nation being the original Flat Earth’s will have a strong preference flow to fellow flat earther Dutton
davidwh: that’s good to hear. However, it does sound like downtown Brissy is going to cop a drenching
davidwh: that’s good to hear. However, it does sound like downtown Brissy is going to cop a drenching
Push polling is back – and who would benefit by Teal candidates being targeted?
The “electoral poll” conducted by “Intelligent Dialogue” in the past week asked respondents in Zoe Daniel’s Melbourne seat of Goldstein and the Sydney seat of Wentworth, held by Allegra Spender, to select which candidate would receive their vote if an election was held today.
If respondents chose someone other than Daniel or Spender, the survey concluded.
But if they selected the teal MP, they were asked two additional questions.
The first read: “[Zoe Daniel/Allegra Spender] is a teal MP who receives significant funding from Simon Holmes à Court, a billionaire investor. Some people are concerned that it makes her and other teals less independent. Do you agree or disagree?”
Daniel received $710,000 from the Holmes à Court-led Climate 200 fundraising vehicle to fight the 2022 election, and has been handed a further $400,000 ahead of this year’s poll.
However, Australian Electoral Commission figures and disclosures to her personal website show she has not received donations directly from Holmes à Court, who is the son of a billionaire but not one himself.
The same goes for Spender.
She received more than $600,000 from Climate 200 before the 2022 election, and $250,310 since, according to figures from the AEC and her personal website.
The teal independents and Holmes à Court himself have repeatedly said the clean energy advocate does not influence the Climate 200-backed MPs.
The second question asks: “[Daniel/Spender] has said she was open to looking at an increase to the GST as part of her ideas for tax reform. Do you support an increase to the GST? Yes or No?”
Daniel in 2023 said there was a “solid argument” to increase the tax on consumption provided low-income households were compensated, while Spender has said GST should be “on the table” in a wide-ranging review of the tax system.
Daniel described the survey as “dirty tactics” which were designed to sow discord in voters’ minds.
“I think it’s unethical, and I think it’s an affront to democracy, and I think it’s insulting to voters,” she said.
Daniel said she believed the Liberal party was behind the “push poll”, but could not produce evidence.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/08/teal-mps-decry-anonymous-push-poll-allegra-spender-zoe-daniel-ntwnfb
Alfie hit Bribie Island and headed north. Couldn’t cross to the big island. We and our island are even too tough for Alfie.
Well done to davidwh on the frontline. It got quite windy here in Mansfield from about 12:30 to 13:30 but by 14:30 it had calmed down considerably, and I was much more relaxed. Rain is constant here but not torrentialy heavy at present. We did not lose power at all but there are about 240,000 reportedly without power.
One poll does not a trend make.
The betting markets refuse to budge.
The trend is your friend…
Morale in the government was boosted by the latest batch of polls, which confirm Albanese’s major announcements in recent weeks have stemmed the decline in voter support and Labor has begun to regain momentum. A senior Labor strategist says there is a sense that the country is turning the corner, thanks to the February interest rate cut, along with policies on Medicare rebates, urgent care clinics and the acceptance by all the states – except, at this stage, Queensland – of funding increases for public schools tied to Gonski-style benchmarks.
Labor is somewhat bewildered by the Coalition’s failure so far to produce a major head-turning policy. It is running out of time to do so and to sell it. According to the strategist, “Dutton is acting as if he is 10 points ahead in the polls, whereas it is closer to 50-50.”
A RedBridge Group poll of 20 marginal seats last weekend revealed Labor is in danger of losing seats in Victoria but will likely retain them elsewhere. An analysis of the figures suggests the 1.4 per cent swing against Labor nationwide would see a Labor minority government with a number of seats in the low 70s and the Coalition in the low 60s.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2025/03/08/albanese-tracks-storms-queensland-and-washington
Wait what my predictive powers failed me again, 2 incorrect guesses on the election date, but I’m such a genius at election predictions….checks own history…with a success rate of about 50:50.
davidwh
Glad to hear that you are surviving!
David Rowe
World News & Politics Patrol:
Zelensky’s approval rating jumps to 68% after Trump clash, poll shows: https://kyivindependent.com/zelenskys-approval-rating-jumps-after-trump-clash-poll-shows/
Poland to offer military training for all adult men, says PM: https://tvpworld.com/85449284/poland-to-offer-military-training-for-all-adult-men-says-pm
Poland seeks access to nuclear arms and looks to build half-million-man army: https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-tusk-plan-train-poland-men-military-service-russia/
Trump threatens new tariffs on Canada, including 250% tax on dairy: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/07/business/tariffs-trump-canada/index.html
As Trump pivots to Russia, allies weigh sharing less intel with U.S.: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna194420
US cuts Ukraine access to Maxar’s satellite imagery service, company says: https://www.politico.eu/article/us-satellite-company-maxar-cuts-off-ukraine-access-imagery-report-says/
Donald Trump is considering pulling US troops from Germany and redeploying them to Eastern Europe: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2025/03/07/donald-trump-considers-pulling-troops-out-of-germany/
Trump threatens Russia with ‘large scale’ sanctions after massive missile attack on Ukraine: https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-threatens-russia-large-scale-152449251.html
Donald Trump told to expect ‘loud’ protests during UK visit: https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-live-starmer-ukraine-zelenskyy-war-trump-macron-meloni-king-12593360?postid=9233295#liveblog-body
‘Five Eyes alliance’ crumbling after UK, Australia, New Zealand and Canada give US cold shoulder: https://metro.co.uk/2025/03/06/five-eyes-alliance-starts-crumble-four-nations-give-us-cold-shoulder-22679726/
Reform UK refers MP Rupert Lowe to police: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4ge5jl62nro
Reform UK civil war as party suspends Rupert Lowe after complaints of ‘serious bullying’ by female employees: https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/uk/reform-suspends-rupert-lowe-mp/
Trump Asked For The Real Declaration of Independence Be Moved Into His Office, ‘Alarming’ Aides: https://www.latintimes.com/trump-asked-real-declaration-independence-moved-his-office-alarming-aides-report-577799
Elon Musk Is Now $111 Billion Poorer, Thanks To His Best Bro Donald Trump’s Tariffs: https://www.vanityfair.com/style/story/elon-musk-111-billion-poorer-tariffs-tesla-stock
American CEOs Sour on Trump’s Economy: https://www.newsweek.com/american-ceos-sour-trump-economy-2040722
Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Nosedives on Foreign Policy: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-slides-foreign-policy-gaza-ukraine-2041126
House Dems still offer no promises to help GOP avoid shutdown: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/03/07/congress/house-dems-invoke-medicaid-cuts-in-warnings-over-government-shutdown-fight-00218222
B.C. planning legislation that could toll trucks travelling to Alaska: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/us-truck-tolls-alaska-1.7476852
Justice Department Disrupts Covert Russian Government-Sponsored Foreign Malign Influence Operation Targeting Audiences in the United States and Elsewhere: https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-disrupts-covert-russian-government-sponsored-foreign-malign-influence
Trump sends letter to Iran on nuclear program: ‘make a deal’ or face US ‘militarily’: https://www.foxbusiness.com/fox-news-world/trump-sends-letter-to-iran-nuclear-on-program-make-deal-face-us-militarily.amp
Rubio, Musk clash at Trump Cabinet meeting: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5183121-rubio-musk-clash-at-trump-cabinet-meeting-nyt/
39 new cases of measles reported in Texas as outbreak grows to 198: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/40-new-cases-measles-reported-texas-outbreak-grows/story?id=119545554
Re Trump:
As is his wont about any topic, Boerwar bangs on and on about Trump having frontal lobe dementia.
I watched a lot of Trump’s speech the other night, and have also watched a number of his other recent appearances including the contretemps with Vance and Zelenskyy in the White House.
Trump is neither demented nor mad IMO. He is, and has always been, profoundly self-centred and, like his late father apparently was, cruel and mean: he has a deep mistrust of the concept of win/win, and can really only feel like he’s won if somebody else loses and is suffering.
But, more to the point, he’s mainly just stupid, as he has always been. Or perhaps a better way of putting it is that he has a certain amount of cunning, but is profoundly ignorant.
Ignorant as in the way he frittered away his father’s fortune and then got lucky by becoming a star on The Apprentice. Ignorant in how he thinks that a US trade deficit with another country means they are “ripping us off.” Ignorant in how he thinks that the tariffs he imposes are paid for by foreign countries. Ignorant in how he likes Putin because he thinks Putin has always treated him nicely in the conversations they have had.
In his first term, the US and the world were largely protected from his ignorance by the various professional, experienced advisers he had around him. In retrospect, those people must be seen as heroes. Now he is surrounded by gumbies like Hegseth and Navarro, wack jobs like Musk and RFK jnr, and gutless wonders like Marco Rubio and Howard Lutnick. So there’s nobody to protect the world from his impulsive idiocy.
So, as I said last night, let’s watch and see what the billionaire class of the US chooses to do about the current situation. Minus, of course, the Trump ally Musk (but even he might eventually become a latecomer to that party, because Trump will surely turn on him sooner or later). As I said, give it 6-12 months.
It’s not that the US billionaire class don’t see many things about a Trump presidency that they would potentially like. It’s just that he’s so erratic that they can’t trust him to deliver any sort of package of measures that would benefit them and then not immediately do something else that undermines them.
When they decide to act, they undoubtedly have both the money and the means to get rid of Trump, or at least to bring him under control. Trump will of course resist, and possibly even try to use the military to stay in power, so it might get a bit ugly. But my money in this fight would be on the billionaire class.
Mike Johnson is the man to watch IMO. Of course I don’t like his politics, but he seems to me to be reasonably smart and eminently sensible. He could play a lead role in constraining Trump or, under some House of Cards-type scenarios, could even become the President.
At any rate, this can’t possibly go on for four years. It’s all very well for Warren Buffet to hold on to billions of dollars waiting to swoop when the stock market indexes go sufficiently far south. And, unless Trump doesn’t stop his tariff nonsense and his dumb foreign policies favouring a nation that has virtually nothing to offer the US in economic terms, the markets will continue to get worse. But, with Trump capable of doing stupid stuff on any given day, how can anyone predict when share values might start rising once more?
C@t,
Like you, I do not have a sub to the Fin Review, and I have deleted my twitter account, but I can quite often magic up recent David Rowe cartoons.
So today I have posted some.
Also, I am in France at the moment, which makes it even trickier.
Sprocket 7.38am
(Saturday Paper)
[Labor is somewhat bewildered by the Coalition’s failure so far to produce a major head-turning policy. It is running out of time to do so and to sell it. ]
The election date is still some way off with plenty of advertising having been booked with the various levels of media by the Dutton mob.
The push polling type “thingies” are what you’d expect from a Dutton/Trump driven attempt to attain legitimacy by deception.
The “born to rules” have become the “wolf in sheep’s clothing”, and with so much depending for many of the LNP Parliamentarians by gaining another term in office, they’ll not disappoint with a final “blow ya house down” blitz.
A final obstacle for the LNP/Dutton/Cash/Trump “roughriders” is a planned, finalised and surprisingly good budget bottom line by Chalmers/Gallagher/Labor.
Very interesting from yougov.
You can be forgiven for dismissing silly old Roy Morgan but now he appears to have some credible shipmates.
Thoughts Lars?.
Has the cialis finally worn off or has Dutton got a repeat to see him through to may ?
cromoII says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 7:31 am
One poll does not a trend make.
The betting markets refuse to budge.
The betting markets are right until the are wrong.. just a lot of unknowing speculators following the herd, they intrinsically know what the pollsters don’t know
Good Morning! Here’s your Daily News and Views Roundup.
Climate change has been elevated to a major election issue by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese declaring that leaders must take decisive action to address global warming because it is making natural disasters such as Cyclone Alfred worse and more expensive to recover from.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/more-frequent-intense-pm-puts-climate-front-and-centre-for-election-20250307-p5lhqx.html
Australia’s largest private arms supplier, Robert Nioa, has become a regular of Donald Trump’s inner circle – and a confidant of Peter Dutton. He is also Bob Katter’s son-in-law. By Jason Koutsoukis.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2025/03/08/shark-fishing-with-don-jr-and-bob-katters-son-law
Dutton’s plan to cull public servants isn’t just risky – it’s misguided
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-s-plan-to-cull-public-servants-isn-t-just-risky-it-s-misguided-20250304-p5lgof.html
The Coalition don’t have many policies, but they still can’t get their story straight.
Peter Dutton and his team keep contradicting themselves, ‘misspeaking’ and backtracking.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/08/the-coalition-dont-have-many-policies-but-they-still-cant-get-their-story-straight
Liberal candidate Ro Knox has doubled down on her claims that Wentworth MP Allegra Spender’s volunteers deliberately put a poster on top of an image of an Israeli family snatched by Hamas, despite the independent decrying it a “disgraceful accusation” and her campaign team supplying photographic evidence to the contrary.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/teal-mp-allegra-spender-threatens-to-sue-challenger-over-disgraceful-accusation-20250307-p5lhof.html
Teal MPs decry anonymous ‘push poll’ sent to voters in two independent seats. Transparency advocates raise concerns over ‘survey’ that asked loaded questions about Climate 200-backed MPs Zoe Daniel and Allegra Spender
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/08/teal-mps-decry-anonymous-push-poll-allegra-spender-zoe-daniel-ntwnfb
A credible teal threat to the Liberals in Sydney’s Bradfield raises the question: would minority government be so bad?
https://insidestory.org.au/disruption-with-australian-characteristics/
More than half a million Gen Zs will vote for the first time in this election, boosting a young demographic that is more powerful than ever and a serious threat to the major parties. By Karen Barlow.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2025/03/08/election-hangs-youth-vote-gen-z-and-millennials-ditch-major-parties
To put it bluntly, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would be foolish to call a federal election this Sunday or Monday.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-prime-minister-would-be-mad-to-call-an-election-on-sunday-or-monday-20250307-p5lhpx.html
Federal government to hand down 25 March budget after Tropical Cyclone Alfred delays election announcement. Delay means election will almost certainly be held on 3 May, 10 May or 17 May – the latest date for the 2025 poll
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/07/federal-government-to-hand-down-25-march-budget-after-tropical-cyclone-alfred-delays-election-announcement
Peter Hartcher comments on the storms that will chase Dutton and Albanese to election day
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-storms-that-will-chase-dutton-and-albanese-to-election-day-20250307-p5lhpm.html
Liberals ‘cheering against Australia’s interest’ over Trump tariffs, Albanese says
Amid growing concern exemption will not be secured, some in Coalition have said it would be failure of prime minister
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/07/anthony-albanese-donald-trump-australia-tariffs-liberals
Back to Back Barries: how to rescue a recession election
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2025/mar/08/back-to-back-barries-how-to-rescue-a-recession-election
Politics Podcast with Michelle Grattan: James Curran on Trump, Ukraine, shifting tectonic plates, and a bigger Australian defence bill
https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-james-curran-on-trump-ukraine-shifting-tectonic-plates-and-a-bigger-australian-defence-bill-251486
Laura Tingle writes that natural and geopolitical disasters have made Albanese and Dutton more conspicuous
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-08/cyclone-alfred-anthony-albanese-public-service-election-date/105021502
Climate Change Authority head Matt Kean joins critics of the Coalition’s energy policy, with a scathing rebuke to the ‘deliberately obstructionist’ forces slowing Australia’s progress on climate. By Mike Seccombe.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2025/03/08/coalition-leads-obstructionist-forces-climate
In ‘A Political Memoir’, Robert Manne views almost half a century of political and cultural flux through an intensely personal lens.
https://insidestory.org.au/radical-astonishment/
Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, the Coalition rising star charged with reducing government waste, has had to repay expenses she improperly claimed from the taxpayer 13 times totalling almost $11,000 and is being investigated again for potentially misusing her federally funded car to attend her husband’s concerts. She needs to cut the ‘waste, fraud and abuse’.
Exclusive: Julie Bishop consults for Chinese military-linked uranium mine. Concerns are being raised about the former foreign minister’s consultancy work for a company suing Greenland over US$11.5 billion of uranium exploitation.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/economy/2025/03/08/exclusive-julie-bishop-consults-chinese-military-linked-uranium-mine
John Hewson comments that Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has been waxing eloquent about his strategy to reclaim seats lost in the last election and to prevent the loss of more. Yet he has consistently failed to address any of the Coalition policy failings behind those losses – principally the issues of integrity in government, gender equality and the need for urgent and substantive climate action.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2025/03/08/power-the-climate-vote
One of Western Australia’s most prominent indigenous advocates has accused the WA Greens of being racist after her nomination to run for the party in the looming federal election was blocked over concerns she would become “another Lidia Thorpe”.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/western-australia/we-don-t-want-another-lidia-thorpe-indigenous-activist-accuses-greens-of-racism-20250307-p5lht6.html
The seats to watch in the 2025 WA election
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/western-australia/the-seats-to-watch-in-the-2025-wa-election-20250307-p5lhvu.html
Voters list priorities in tightly contested WA seat of Warren-Blackwood
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-07/voter-priorities-marginal-wa-seat-warren-blackwood-election/105012716
After years of problems in youth justice, will WA’s election finally offer solutions?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-07/wa-election-promises-youth-justice-solutions/105013140
Labor MP owns share in Key Largo clinic at centre of probe into the death of Sandipan Dhar
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/western-australia/labor-mp-owns-share-in-key-largo-clinic-at-centre-of-probe-into-the-death-of-sandipan-dhar-20250306-p5lhk0.html
The Victorian government’s giant Metro Tunnel project has been corrupted by CFMEU delegates working for the state’s biggest labour hire firm, sparking the sacking of union delegates and an urgent investigation into the extent of a “ghost shifts” scam on one of Labor’s signature projects.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-s-15b-metro-tunnel-rocked-by-cfmeu-ghost-shift-scandal-20250306-p5lhk1.html
NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey has warned that boosting NSW’s growth this year must be a priority, with a focus on accelerating planning approvals to allow private investment in the booming industries of tech and clean energy, or the state faces a “grim decade” of high inflation and sluggish economic conditions.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/the-boom-industries-nsw-must-rely-on-to-avoid-a-grim-decade-20250306-p5lhbr.html
‘Illegal practices’ affected Adelaide City Council election result, judge finds.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-07/adelaide-city-council-court-case-election-result/105023606
First cyclone to hit Brisbane in half-a-century on final approach
https://www.smh.com.au/national/queensland/first-cyclone-to-hit-brisbane-in-half-a-century-on-final-approach-20250307-p5lhxf.html
Busting cyclone myths: What you should and shouldn’t do when Alfred arrives
https://www.smh.com.au/national/queensland/busting-cyclone-myths-what-you-should-and-shouldn-t-do-when-alfred-arrives-20250307-p5lhpu.html
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/mar/07/tropical-cyclone-alfred-live-updates-wind-rain-category-2-storm-south-east-queensland-northern-nsw
Flood preparations are a familiar ritual in Brisbane’s Rosalie — but not a cyclone watch
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-07/cyclone-watch-alfred-rosalie/105024496
‘I’m ready’: why John is determined to weather Cyclone Alfred in his tent despite authorities’ warnings
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/07/im-ready-why-john-is-determined-to-weather-cyclone-alfred-in-his-tent-despite-authorities-warnings
Tasmanian Salmon industry apologises for impact of ‘unprecedented mortality event’
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-07/salmon-tasmania-apologises-for-mortality-event/105024028
The key to saving Whyalla and seizing massive national security rewards? A clean commodities trading company. By Oliver Yates and Elizabeth Thurbon
https://johnmenadue.com/the-key-to-saving-whyalla-and-seizing-massive-national-security-rewards-a-clean-commodities-trading-company/
The secret ‘wild life’ of Ken Henry.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/the-secret-wild-life-of-ken-henry-20250227-p5lfq1.html
Republican acts of political self-preservation could form the most effective resistance to the Trump agenda.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-is-shirtless-and-out-of-control-but-his-maga-minions-are-bringing-him-back-to-earth-20250221-p5ldz9.html
There are 1,000 grotesque memes of JD Vance – and they’re all more likable than the real thing
Marina Hyde
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/mar/07/jd-vance-vice-president-america-memes
‘People are going silent’: Fearing retribution, Trump critics muzzle themselves
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/people-are-going-silent-fearing-retribution-trump-critics-muzzle-themselves-20250307-p5lhnu.html
Wealthy foreigners — including Russian oligarchs — will be able to pay $US5 million ($7.89m) to buy a “Trump Gold Card” for access to permanent residency and a path to US citizenship, President Donald Trump says.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-08/donald-trump-gold-cards-visas-explained/104984228
Julia Baird writes that Elon Musk is wrong. To spurn empathy is to spur evil. Also as The New York Times’ David French, himself a conservative evangelical, points out, “in its most extreme political faction” the Republican Christian right “is turning against empathy itself”.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/elon-musk-is-wrong-to-spurn-empathy-is-to-spur-evil-20250307-p5lhpr.html
‘Those with bigger fists should not be allowed to call the shots’: China takes aim at Trump
(China should take its own advice)
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/anchor-of-stability-china-eyes-opportunity-amid-trump-chaos-20250307-p5lhvn.html
China, US a world apart on shaping the future – Asian Media Report By David Armstrong
https://johnmenadue.com/china-us-a-world-apart-on-shaping-the-future-asian-media-report/
Sam Roggeveen on Why Australia’s response to China must be measured
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2025/03/08/why-australias-response-china-must-be-measured
Israel, US reject plan to rebuild Gaza without displacing more people
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-08/arab-peace-initiative-gaza-israel-united-states-trump-netanyahu/105021712
Trump’s conduct on Ukraine prompts strategic reckoning By Hugh White
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2025/03/08/trumps-conduct-ukraine-prompts-strategic-reckoning
The EU is doing exactly what Trump wants. He still doesn’t care.
https://www.politico.eu/article/european-council-summit-donald-trump-war-in-ukraine-peace-talks/
Poland seeks access to nuclear arms and looks to build half-million-man army
Already a major spender within NATO, Warsaw has massive military plans as fears grow about the reliability of the U.S. as an ally against Russia.
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-tusk-plan-train-poland-men-military-service-russia/
Ukraine uses French Mirage jets for first time in repelling massive Russian attack. It was the first large combined airstrike by Moscow since Washington halted aid and intel-sharing to Kyiv. Yay!
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-use-french-mirage-2000-jet-first-time-repel-russia-missile-drone-strike/
Alan Jones hit with further indecent assault charge, bringing alleged victim count to 11
The former broadcaster is now facing a total of 35 charges of indecent assault and sexual touching, with the case due to return to court next week.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/alan-jones-hit-with-new-charge-against-11th-alleged-victim-20250307-p5lhve.html
A Current Affair reporter Seb Costello has resigned from the Nine Network, just months after the company launched a review into an incident where he chased an interview subject into a women’s public toilet.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/seb-costello-exits-nine-amid-review-into-bathroom-incident-20250307-p5lhr2.html
Ross Gittins writes that despite the economy only just popping its head up after 21 months of “per-person recession”, our jobs market has been going gangbusters. How can it possibly be so strong? It’s this strength that has made the Reserve Bank so reluctant to cut interest rates.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/our-jobs-market-is-booming-but-the-rba-needn-t-be-so-worried-20250306-p5lhkw.html
‘The cost of cash is real’: So who’s really paying to keep it alive?
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/the-cost-of-cash-is-real-so-who-s-really-paying-to-keep-it-alive-20250220-p5ldvl.html
Cartoon Time!
First Dog On the Moon
Fiona Katauskas:
Donald Trump or Don Corleone? Sometimes it’s hard to tell the difference
‘Please let Mr Hitler speak’: the trouble with ‘hearing from both sides’ – the Stephen Collins cartoon
Martin Rowson on Europe’s fear of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin
From the Internet
Matt Wuerker
Enjoy!
leftieBrawler: “You can be forgiven for dismissing silly old Roy Morgan but now he appears to have some credible shipmates.”
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I reckon there is definitely a swing back to Labor: I can sense it in my conversations with people I know.
But it’s got almost nothing to do with Australian politics: it’s a consequence of the incredible damage that Trump is currently doing to the global right wing political brand.
And this is happening everywhere. Both Farage and Le Pen felt the need to criticise Trump’s treatment of Zelenskyy and it is said that Le Pen is now feeling slightly despondent at her prospects of winning the presidency: something that looked quite likely just a few weeks ago.
Dutton must be feeling similarly despondent, although he brought it on himself to some extent with his ill-judged decision to announce DOGE-like public service cuts.
It’s a lucky break for Albo, who has been very mediocre (notwithstanding listicles by BW, Van Badham or whoever). But lucky breaks happen in politics: Trump got lucky when Biden pushed his advisers out of the way and decided to run for a second term. What goes around usually comes around (the people of Russia might beg to differ: they reckon the Karma Bus is long overdue in their neck of the woods. It was probably driven off the road into a snowdrift by a driver who was out of his mind on vodka.).
Sceptic @ #NaN Saturday, March 8th, 2025 – 8:13 am
Probably a Pump and Dump scheme from Liberal supporters. 😐
Musk spits dummy & announce support for Democrat Party
NYT..
Inside the Explosive Meeting Where Trump Officials Clashed With Elon Musk
Simmering anger at the billionaire’s unchecked power spilled out in a remarkable Cabinet Room meeting. The president quickly moved to rein in Mr. Musk.
Marco Rubio was incensed. Here he was in the Cabinet Room of the White House, the secretary of state, seated beside the president and listening to a litany of attacks from the richest man in the world.
Seated diagonally opposite, across the elliptical mahogany table, Elon Musk was letting Mr. Rubio have it, accusing him of failing to slash his staff.
You have fired “nobody,” Mr. Musk told Mr. Rubio, then scornfully added that perhaps the only person he had fired was a staff member from Mr. Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.
The wheels are falling off the Clown Car… beware the Ides of March.
“Any book worth banning is a book worth reading.” Isaac Asimov.
I’m not quite sure about that. Back in the days when Australian Customs used to seize books at the border, some of Jackie Collins’s novels were on the banned list. They were about as interesting as a rainy day at the cricket.
And then there was Lady Chatterley’s Lover. A book that started out as an evocative description of British rural life and the travails of a gamekeeper on a large estate, but which was spoilt by a boring and irrelevant subplot featuring the lady of the manor.
US Cartoons (Part 1):
US Cartoons (Part 2):
Definitely meher. I always thought the longer this takes the better for albo.
Now he also has the now tropical low Albert bearing down in an area he needs to try and win seats. He can and no doubt will throw cash all around SE and then northern rivers under the auspices of recovery programs. And the longer it takes the more time spent in normal mode as opposed to caretaker.
Getting back to the trump by association pickle for the LNP we now have the would-be Australian DOGE minister being investigated for a 14th alleged breach of the misuse of electoral allowances. Oh-the-irony.
There is even trouble for Andrew Constance in Gilmore with his campaign seemingly falling apart faster than a bombay bicycle
That ‘anonymous’ push polling in Wentworth and Goldstein looks like a fossil fuel cartel black ops operation.
What a despicable individual this man is!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/03/07/trump-russia-sanctions-threat/
Trump having an effect on our polling I reckon.
Duttons focus groups probably telling him to disassociate immediately.
Ukraine president is a grifter said nothing when hundreds of thousands of his people deserted.
Trump doing what he was voted in for going well upsetting leftie bedwetters.
Two time president and MAGA is being implemented.
China is on April 2 going to have to deal with not being able to game the global economy at the expense of the West.
Should have happened 10 years ago.
Musk doing well USA has to pay its bills cannot do it with massive hangers on in a so called public service.
Victoria Australia is the result when debt compounds.They are a gov mass sacking as well.
Keeping Rudd who called Trump “a traitor” as Ambassador shows how stupid the fed labor government is.Next week Thurs tariff decision.
Alpha Zero says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 8:29 am
Has the tone of US cartoonist changed or are you just doing a great job in finding the good ones ?
pied piper says:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 8:37 am
So Tesla shares went up when Musk supported Chump..because of potential kickbacks in Chumps graft & corruption scheme.. will they go down if Musk is dumped? My guess is NO.
Why because the US stock market drinks the same Kooaid as Chump’s supporters
Meher baba
Even if Dutton loses the election, he is almost guaranteed to stay on as Opposition Leader / PM in waiting. At the very least Labor will be reduced well into minority in an unstable coalition with the independents and/or the Greens. We would be looking at Gillard level polling for most of the ensuing term.
Insiders Sunday, 9 Mar
Wa Election Special From Perth
Start your Sunday morning with the show the politicians rely on to find out what’s going on. David Speers is in Perth with the washup after the WA Election and any federal implications, plus the week in federal politics.
“and don’t come back”
At least he’s wearing a suit!
”
Scepticsays:
Saturday, March 8, 2025 at 7:03 am
Can we now add the obvious Dutton + Trump + Vance Conservative Coalition with “would likely have produced a result of 52-48.”…. pollsters will be missing this .. sure as eggs.
I’ve come across a few Australian Flat Earth’s that support Trump & Dutton..
”
We come across them daily on PB. I don’t think the above combination is a turn off as you think across Australia.
A lot of people know ‘Dutton is Trump mini-me’ but around 40% want to still give their 1st PB to Dutton LNP. This is after a scandal free and competent government, which increased wages of low and middle class income earners, produced 2 consecutive surpluses.
Do not underestimate the lure of LNP. There is good and bad in each person. LNP has the knack of bringing out the worse angels in people.
The last ALP government avoided GFC with very good set of economic policies. People behaved as if ‘what GFC?’ based on LNP disinformation and misinformation.
I think Australian people are easily susceptible to LNP misinformation and disinformation. Prime example is ‘Voice’ referendum vote.
To put it in thr language more comfortable for American, they are now facing the biblical plagues as caused by their bewitching and fall to the anti-christ.
From C@t’s Dawn Patrol:
”Liberal candidate Ro Knox has doubled down on her claims that Wentworth MP Allegra Spender’s volunteers deliberately put a poster on top of an image of an Israeli family snatched by Hamas, despite the independent decrying it a “disgraceful accusation” and her campaign team supplying photographic evidence to the contrary.”
Isn’t that the way with Liberals.
1. Loudly make an assertion which supports their agenda. It doesn’t matter whether it is true or not.
2. If the assertion is called out as being false, repeat it even louder.
3. If provided with inconvertible evidence that the assertion couldn’t possibly be true, refer point 2.
This kind of approach to hiring is just nuts:
The exchange ended with Mr. Trump telling Mr. Duffy that he had to hire people from M.I.T. as air traffic controllers. These air traffic controllers need to be “geniuses,” he said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/07/us/politics/trump-musk-doge-power.html
Soooo a group of centrist Dems got together earlier in the week to nut out a Third Way. They have released a memo with a recommended path forward which is available in the Politico article, but I’m loving the suggestion they distance themselves from far left groups and reject ideological purity tests.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/02/third-way-patriotism-democrats-campaign-00206890
Sprocket @7:38 am: Labor is somewhat bewildered by the Coalition’s failure so far to produce a major head-turning policy. It is running out of time to do so and to sell it. According to the strategist, “Dutton is acting as if he is 10 points ahead in the polls, whereas it is closer to 50-50.”
Me: Maybe Dutton LNP internal polls say they are 10% ahead. Or take Resolve poll where LNP is 10% ahead in polls. Who knows. Beware.
There are lots of scromos, PPs, FUBARs, Paul As, Centres in Australia.
Confessions @ #NaN Saturday, March 8th, 2025 – 8:46 am
Because suits = seriousness, apparently. 😐
#weatheronPB
Monotonous wet.
Grey, more grey, and then more wet,
but which too will end.
Thanks for the roundups all!
Although we’re not out of the woods yet it seems Alfred was a bit of a fizzer, and the models quite significantly overestimated the wind and rain
We had a wet and soggy night but pretty fine for the most part
Lots of localised areas cut off, Bellingen as expected, yet another landslide on the waterfall way (how much longer that road remains passable is anyone’s guess)
Be some nervous hours for Lismore and other Riverside communities in the northern rivers
Credit where it’s due, QLD premier Crisafulli has done a great job. I’m no fan of the LNP but Qld did a great job preparing and the lack of widespread damage there is a great result
Here in NSW we’ve done ok but if I’m honest it feels like coordination hasn’t been as good nor the messaging as clear and consistent
Confessions @ #NaN Saturday, March 8th, 2025 – 8:58 am
And it’s a smart idea, finally. Fringe groups don’t win elections for you. ‘You’ve got to go where the people are’, as Paul Ericksen, Labor’s campaign chair, says. We may not approve but we are hyper-engaged and atypical.
davidwh raising his arms to the sky (Exodus 9:34) seems to have had some moderating effect
https://kyivindependent.com/zelenskys-approval-rating-jumps-after-trump-clash-poll-shows/
By contrast Trump has suffered a poll drop as US voters were appalled at the Oval office exchange.
Red ink budget deficits for next five years that will win voters over.
Long term 18 month Trend is not labors friend federally.
Federal labor has got no plan except to head at best into minority government.
250k without power hopefully floods will be minor.
Err Trump does not care about polls he is not running again!
He’s also getting stuck into USA universities on anti semitism.