As Anthony Albanese rules out the April 12 election he had been widely expected to call this weekend before Cyclone Alfred came into view, YouGov presents his government with its most encouraging poll result in some time. The poll credits Labor with a two-party lead of 51-49, reversing the result of the last such poll a week ago (YouGov had hitherto reported around once every three weeks – presumably this portends a quicker pace ahead of the election). The two-party headline is the product of a recently adopted preference formula which, not unreasonably, assumes weaker flows from minor parties to Labor than in 2022. A strict application of flows from the last election would likely have produced a result of 52-48.
On the primary vote, Labor is up three points to 31%, the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down one to 13%, One Nation is down one to 7%, and Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of the Patriots remains on 1%. Anthony Albanese is up two points on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 51%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 43% and up one to 47%. Albanese holds a 45-39 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 42-40. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1504.
What did leaving cans of dog food on his desk possibly mean?
Newspoll: ALP 32 L-NP 39 Green 12 One Nation 7 ind/others 10
51-49 to the Coalition
Mr Albanese’s approval rating rose four points to 41 per cent, with disapproval falling five points to 53 per cent.
This has lifted the Prime Minister’s net performance from his worst ever score on this measure in the previous poll – minus 21 – to a net negative approval rating of minus 12.
Mr Dutton suffered a two-point fall in approval to 39 per cent and a two-point rise in dissatisfaction to 53 per cent, giving him a net negative rating of minus 14.
This is the first time since late last year that Mr Albanese has had a better approval rating than the Opposition Leader.
In the head-to-head contest between the two leaders, Mr Albanese has improved his position two points to 47 per cent, with Mr Dutton falling two points to 38 per cent. While still a narrow margin, it is the strongest lead Mr Albanese has enjoyed over his rival since September last year.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-majority-of-voters-believe-coalition-not-yet-ready-to-govern-again/news-story/c429e633ae4d0c5d578eed3abe53e91e?amp
BK
There should be a newspoll tonight.
Vic
Already in.
Haha
Thanks Holden!
Teflon Dutton.
The punters are determined to elect him. 39%.
Greens woeful, Pauline steady.
Bit deflating for the Labor love club this weekend.
Eine Katastrophe droht!
Even if you win going backwards you still going backwards.
Support for Anthony Albanese’s performance has lifted but not enough to carry Labor to a winnable position, with Newspoll also showing a majority of voters are not convinced the Coalition is ready to govern again.
Simon Benson
Newspoll 9/3/25:
2pp 51-49 to the libs,
Primaries:
LNP 39,
ALP 32,
GRNS 12
Looks like an Azerbaijan coalition (Red , Green and Teal) not Liechtenstein coalition (Red and Teal).
Libs are up a notch, just shy of 40%.
Fuck, that stupid attack on Dutton’s finances last week, and with Albo “Mr $4.3m clifftop mansion”, in the background. Stupid Labor attack line.
God Bless the Australian voters. They can see thru a clown-show a mile away.
Scott/Alastair – where are you ?
News ltd has waived the white flag as demonstrated by the series of new editorials dropped at the same time as the newspoll. Almost all critical and no longer bullish of a Dutton/LNP win. Albo now back to dominating the preferred PM contest.
According to Newspoll Labor’s primary is basically back to the 2022 election level……Your move Dutton
Labor 32, Greens 12, yet 2PP still stuck at 49-51 in favour of the LNP.
Although the LNP primary is 3 points higher than the 2022 election, with the disappearance of UAP they have just split that vote with ON.
Seems a very odd result.
Anyone (looking at you KB) had a go at a 2PP projection using last election’s preference flows?
I feel some of the superfans were expecting a YouGov result, ie 51-49 the other way. Cest la vie
Paul A wetting himself for no reason.
The problem is Labor had a good couple of weeks, with the attacks on Dutton, the interest rate cut. These were all timed for a 12 April election.
It is a small positive movement in net sat but not enough to sustain a 7 week campaign.
Albo has missed the bus.
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham:
My aggregate post-Newspoll:
By 2022 preferences 50.2 to ALP
With One Nation adjustment (recommended) 50.4 to L-NP
As near as 50-50 as you could get.
Andy i was wondering the same thing. I’d also like to know how they interpreted the impact of that extra 3/4% to the LNP. Considering the greens are steady at 12% are they suggesting a teal collapse so severe that it would hand Dutton the lodge ?
The Newspoll results just basically confirmed what I was already thinking, that the YouGov poll from a few days ago seemed to be an outlier.
Lars Von Triersays: Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 9:39 pm
Surely there’s better coalition names than countries? Hopefully something very Australian, and make it very specific that no one else outside of the country knows wtf it is, similar to the Tiger Duck Coalition in Germany
Although if we’re coming up with Coalition names…
Labor-Greens-Teal: Light Coalition (Red, Blue and Green are primary colours of light), Fairy Bread Coalition or Opal coalition considering that it’ll be a mishmash of different groups.
Labor-Greens: Christmas Coalition (ironic), Waratah Coalition (I prefer Paw Coalition after Kangaroo Paw),
Pual I know you’re a bit slow but do you realize like Peter’s approval ratings are down and also Simon saying from the Australian that they also don’t trust the coalition to lead this is going to be a minority government bro like I always been saying which is funny considering Simon would probably be talking up the coalitions chances but honestly it’s good that Anthony slowly getting back to approval so the attacks are probably working on Peter
I dunno
Albo throws $8.5b towards medicare
Dutton wants to cancel WFH arrangement for the “cushy public servants”
Albo turns up in Brisbane for a bit of disaster tourism and photo op’s
Dutton flys back to his electorate in time for the Cyclone
Albo fucks off before the Cyclone
LNP up to 39% on the premier poll.
Spin it the way you want though guys.
\
Spin spin spin
The trend is our friend. 🙂
Dutton down. PM up.
Pual if the liberals were doing better they would be on a have a bigger lead in the polling also Peter came back when he got caught at a fundraiser Anthony being at Queensland since the cyclone coverage begin so it’s going going to be minority government bro also why do you have a problem with people working at home
The Australian were just hours ago writing about just how accurate the newspoll methodology has proven to date.
And just hours later they are dispatching editorials left right and centre downplaying coalition chances despite a new and accurate 51-49 ??
Spin spin spin. Its all the Oz ever does.
Well bludgeoned westie – they had a traffic light coalition and a Jamaica coalition in Germany.
Im going with Azerbaijan coalition and Liechtenstein coalition but if there is a better name I am happy to go with it.
Did entropy run out of data this evening ? Haven’t seen him for several hours now.
Spin spin spin
Yes you are, paul A. 😐
‘When Peter Dutton should have been filling sandbags, he was filling his money bags.’
”ALP 32 L-NP 39 Green 12 One Nation 7 ind/others 10
51-49 to the Coalition”
My calculation is ALP =
32 + .83*12 + .4*7 + .5 * 10 —> 50%
I’m sure this result will just be a minor speed hump in Dutton’s journey to the lodge.
Luckily for him he has a budget reply speech which will surely bring him up to a 55-45 2pp just in time for election day
Lefty brawler honestly I would not be surprised if people in the Australia newspaper got word that while the coalition is going to get seats it’s not going to be enough of them I remember what that 1983 guy said that he had people in both major party saying that it’s going to be a line ball election
I understand the Liberal dirt response was being held back pending the start of the campaign. The ALP definitely scored some hits on Dutton in the last 2 weeks , but we’ll see what the Libs have in the can.
As someone in the “Labor Love club” I’ll take that poll
More green shoots in the approvals / preferred PM despite, at least with the published rounding, no move in the PVs and the published 2PP
Much rather be Labor than coalition…..or for that matter the demented idiots who want Dutton to get within striking distance of government rather than getting destroyed yet kid themselves they are progressives….
Quentin I think you’re on the money. I smell a rat with the cache of sobering editorials included with the newspoll drop.
Simon benson for starters …
“Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 10:05 pm
I understand the Liberal dirt response was being held back pending the start of the campaign. The ALP definitely scored some hits on Dutton in the last 2 weeks , but we’ll see what the Libs have in the can.”
Good luck with that Lars, but I suspect they may have fired those shots 3 years ago no?
C@tmommasays: Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 9:56 pm
Idk C@t, it looks like we might need to see more polls showing some sort of improvement for Labor in primary vote and PM approval before declaring the trend’s your friend.
Rn overall polling trend is showing that support for the Liberals is rising, but there’s still enough people who are distrustful of Dutton (if there wasn’t, Liberals would be around 53-47 2pp result in Bonham or PollBludger’s aggregates at this point in time) which makes the race close for both parties.
“paul Asays:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 9:54 pm
I dunno
Albo throws $8.5b towards medicare
Dutton wants to cancel WFH arrangement for the “cushy public servants”
Albo turns up in Brisbane for a bit of disaster tourism and photo op’s
Dutton flys back to his electorate in time for the Cyclone
Albo fucks off before the Cyclone
LNP up to 39% on the premier poll.
Spin it the way you want though guys.
\
Spin spin spin”
Self awareness not the strong suit with this one!
The Revisionistsays:
Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 10:07 pm
As someone in the “Labor Love club” I’ll take that poll
More green shoots in the approvals / preferred PM despite, at least with the published rounding, no move in the PVs and the published 2PP
Much rather be Labor than coalition…..or for that matter the demented idiots who want Dutton to get within striking distance of government rather than getting destroyed yet kid themselves they are progressives….
+1
Some around here who call themselves ‘leftie’, for example.
Lars Von Trier,
I love those German coalition names based on the colours; Jamaica coalition, traffic lights coalition…
I have to give you a couple of points for coming up with the ‘Azerbaijan coalition’. Not that I agree with you, of course, but I admit that one was clever.
Lars what ever the real story, at least it’s starting to heat up and sizzle. Should be an intriguing next 8 weeks no matter the end result.
Who’d have guessed silly old Roy Morgan was onto something
paul A,
Peter Dutton was shamed into coming back to his electorate. Just in time for ex-tropical cyclone Alfred to turn into an East Coast Tropical Low. Bravo that man! 😐
Lefty brawler yeah I’m not I’m not saying that maybe there are people inside the coalition campaign telling Simon telling him to cool the Jets that was some weird wording Simon said like people don’t even trust the coalition to be government wonder that’s what 1983 said where he heard on both sides that it’s gonna be a line ball election that labour will lose some seats Coalition will gain some seats but I will not be surprised if independence gained some too because this close to election and it’s listen it’s basically 50/50 this isn’t the Queensland election this isn’t the Western Australia election this is an election where people like both sides up not doing well and it would not be surprised if Labor keeps attacking Peter and launching promises because if anything the coalition should be higher than 51 to 49 because we all know what happened with labour and 2019
I stick by Mumble and Michelle Grattan’s observation that the government usually picks up support during an election campaign, from where they are at the beginning.
New thread.
Ante M – I like the “Kenyan Coalition” for the CDU/SPD/Green combo.
As I said before the “Debt brake” question is going to be a sticking block towards future spending and therefore coalition forming.