A report in Nine Newspapers yesterday quoted “a pair of ministers” expressing the view that Cyclone Alfred may, depending on its severity, deter the Prime Minister from calling an April 12 election on Sunday. Simon Benson of The Australian notes the optics of an election announcement would be particularly troublesome if, as appears likely, the most heavily affected areas encompass Peter Dutton’s own seat of Dickson. That would lock the government into a March 25 budget and an election in May – unless, as Benson notes, it pursued the no less optically troublesome path of extending the campaign to six weeks and holding the election on May 3.
On the poll front, the fortnightly Essential Research records little change on voting intention, with an increased Coalition result among women cancelling out a drop among men. Labor is down a point to 29% with the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation down one to 8%. The Coalition nudges ahead on the 2PP+ measure, now leading 48-47 after a 48-48 result last time. Leadership ratings that normally come monthly are included for the second fortnight in a row, with Anthony Albanese down two on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 49%, while Peter Dutton is steady on 41% and down one to 44%.
A question on firmness of voting intention reflects other polling in finding Coalition voters more likely to profess certainty in their intention (65% compared with 31% for “might change my mind” and 4% for “not yet decided”) than Labor voters (52%, 39% and 9%). Respondents were divided on the likely outcome, 29% apiece expecting Labor the Coalition to win a majority, with 22% for a Labor minority and 21% for a Coalition minority. A regular pre-election question on voting method finds more than ever planning to vote early (31%, up from 24% in the May 2022 survey), with election day down three points to 35% and postal down five to 19%. A monthly national mood indicator is slightly improved on a weak result last time, 34% holding that the country is heading in the right direction (up three) compared with 49% for the wrong track (down two).
DemosAU now has federal results for the South Australian poll for which state results were published earlier in the week. The poll shows Labor with a two-party lead in the state of 53-47, a swing to the Coalition of 1% compared with 2022. The primary votes are Labor 34% (34.5% at the election), Coalition 35% (35.7%), Greens 11% (12.8%) and One Nation 6% (4.8%). Anthony Albanese leads Peter Dutton 39-33 on preferred prime minister; 39% agree and 46% disagree that Australia is headed in the right direction. As with the state poll, it was conducted February 18 to 23 from a sample of 1004, but evidently required substantial weighting, as the methodology statement reports an effective sample of 440 and a margin of error of 4.8%.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll did not replicate the surge to Labor it recorded last week, with the Coalition recording a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 51-49 Labor lead last time. The primary vote were Labor 28.5% (down three), Coalition 40% (up three-and-a-half), Greens 13.5% (steady) and One Nation 4% (down one). The result on previous election preference flows was 50-50, after Labor led 53-47 last week. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1673.
Have to feel sorry for those in Lismore. 108mm since 9am this morning with no end in sight. Looks like deja vu all over again.
Steve777 @ #900 Friday, March 7th, 2025 – 8:41 pm
Because most of those in control of the media really really wanted him to go early so that if Dutton wins then he can pass a horror budget that benefits them and hurts everyone else and nobody would notice because of the honeymoon in popularity that he’d presumably get.
Scepticsays:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 8:31 pm
beguiledagain says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 5:58 pm
Mark Carney..
“Piece of trivia: his mother was Margaret Kemper. That was Margaret Trudeau’s name when she remarried Fried Kemper after splitting with Pierre in 1984.“
Does that make Mark & Justin sort of brothers?
=====================================================
Mark Carney’s mother was Verlie Margaret Carney (née Kemper). She was not Margaret Kemper, though, and while they share the surname Kemper, I don’t believe they are closely related.
What with Tesla crashing & Starship exploding it’s not a good time for poor ketamine addled Elon
Boerwar – China does have its problems.
The top marginal tax rate in China is 45% for those earning more than 960,000 yuan. Even the business rate is 35%. There is not a huge amount of room to move in that.
Indirect taxation like tariffs are not such a bad idea for them.
Their rapidly ageing population will be another issue they will have to deal with. The drop in birth rate is probably worse than then the official figures say. Individualism is so strong in the culture that it is very hard to get many Chinese women to marry and pop up kidlets. This is a problem that seems fairly common across a lot of north east Asia.
”Have to feel sorry for those in Lismore. 108mm since 9am this morning with no end in sight. Looks like deja [vu] all over again”
That 108 mm is in addition to 148 mm in the 24 hours to 9:00 AM and 52 mm in the preceding few days, over 300 mm all up and counting.
‘B. S. Fairman says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 8:48 pm
Boerwar – China does have its problems.
The top marginal tax rate in China is 45% for those earning more than 960,000 yuan. Even the business rate is 35%. There is not a huge amount of room to move in that.
Indirect taxation like tariffs are not such a bad idea for them.
Their rapidly ageing population will be another issue they will have to deal with. The drop in birth rate is probably worse than then the official figures say. Individualism is so strong in the culture that it is very hard to get many Chinese women to marry and pop up kidlets. This is a problem that seems fairly common across a lot of north east Asia.’
=================
Yep. I agree with every one of these points. The problem for us is this: China is our biggest market.
Mark Carney leads Pierre Poilievre by 9 points as the best candidate to negotiate with Trump…
https://cultmtl.com/2025/03/mark-carney-leads-pierre-poilievre-by-9-points-as-the-best-candidate-to-negotiate-with-trump/
Chump Trump pulls off another winner
‘steve davis says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 8:42 pm
Have to feel sorry for those in Lismore. 108mm since 9am this morning with no end in sight. Looks like deja vous all over again.’
====================
Plus one. I just feel sorry for the people who live there.
The policy issues are becoming sharper and sharper. Around 350,000 houses in Australia are at severe risk because of global warming.
The old story is to listen to the organ grinder not the monkeys
The pm is the organ grinder
Media are the monkeys
BW
I suppose there will still be the deniers even after all these weather events.
Herald Sun 07/03
Has Lindsay Fox flipped his script?
The Linfox founder has always been thought of as dyed in the wool of Labor and even described as the party’s go-to billionaire when Dan Andrews was in government.
So there were plenty walking the mean streets of Toorak this week perplexed at the great big giant billboard placed on the fence of his sprawling Eulinya estate on Irving Rd, promoting none other than Liberal candidate for Kooyong Amelia Hamer.
_____________________
Obviously not a fan of Monique Ryan.
Boerwar – Yes, but we mostly sell raw material to them. We can sell those same raw materials to however else is make stuff next. The problem is India will not get rich in the same way as China and that only leaves one significantly under developed place in the world – AFRICA. The second half of the 21st Century is going to be the African renaissance.
steve davissays:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 8:56 pm
BW
I suppose there will still be the deniers even after all these weather events.
_____________________
I suppose Labor will still be approving coal mine expansions even after all these weather events.
I suppose the Coalition will keep coal fired power stations going even when they are well past their sell by date.
If climate change is to blame for Cyclone Alfred, then how come there was a cyclone that took a similar path 50 years ago?
Really, people need to stop blaming climate change for individual weather events. What matters is the trend: and the trend is quite disturbing enough. Trying to blame every unusual weather event on climate change is reminiscent of Henny Penny.
Meher baba
So are you a denier?
steve davissays:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 9:09 pm
Meher baba
So are you a denier?
=======================================================
I would say not, his statement on that is pretty clear.
“What matters is the trend: and the trend is quite disturbing enough.”
steve davis @ #915 Friday, March 7th, 2025 – 9:06 pm
Yeah, and they’d break down a lot more often too.
I doubt that’d be fun, suffering 45°C+ heatwaves and then Yallourn, Eraring and Callide have to be shut down simultaneously so there’s a load shedding operation so there’s no air conditioning or even ceiling fans able to be operated.
Oh well, only the vulnerable would be likely to die from that and that’s all fine and dandy with the right wing anti-woke “clean out the barn” crowd.
No single weather event can ever be assigned to climate change. It is the frequency of their occurrence that will be altered.
Such an expert on China
Amazing
steve davis: “Meher baba
So are you a denier?”
Not in the slightest. I am an advocate for the data, which is showing an alarming long-term warming trend.
However, over recent decades, I have heard a lot of silly claims made about how climate change is to blame for individual weather events.
In Australia, cyclones occasionally push further south than where they normally hang out. It’s happened before and will no doubt happen again. It has happened on the east coast twice in 50 years. If it happens 5 more times in the next 50 years, then attributing that to climate change would be a reasonable hypothesis. Although, given that Cyclone Alfred formed in the Coral Sea, where many other cyclones form, there would be a need for an explanation of why climate change makes some cyclones head south but not others.
My all time fav was that warmer weather would make sharks more aggressive.
Well I think there is the theory that a Warmer planet expands the tropics, thereby extending the range of tropical cyclone activity.
Not “carbon dioxide isn’t a poison”?
Advantages for Albo in delaying calling the election – if he and the government are seen to have managed well the relief efforts for Cyclone Alfred, all the logistical planning and so on, that’ll pay off for Labor in terms of poll ratings and overall perceptions of the government. Deliver the budget on March 25 with some goodies – extra energy rebates for households and businesses etc, if that is received well by the markets and the electorate at large, that’s a plus too.
The downsides of a May election – having to campaign during Easter school holidays, when a lot of people won’t have their minds on politics. Anzac Day gets in the way too.
‘meher baba says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 9:16 pm
steve davis: “Meher baba
So are you a denier?”
Not in the slightest. I am an advocate for the data, which is showing an alarming long-term warming trend.
However, over recent decades, I have heard a lot of silly claims made about how climate change is to blame for individual weather events.
…’
========================
Meh. Earth is one climate system. Increase the energy in the system then ALL events are affected. Even the ones that look ‘normal’.
And, all the best to everyone in Brisbane, SE Qld, Lismore, Northern coastal regions of NSW – thinking of you all!
meher baba @ #922 Friday, March 7th, 2025 – 9:16 pm
There’s simple mathematics to this. As more energy enters the global climate system via carbon emissions, that means that major weather events such as cyclones/typhoons/hurricanes/polar vortexes get more energy put into them so that they become more powerful and do more damage.
Yes, a lot of powerful weather events happened in the past, a lot more deadly than the ones we face today, but most of them are becoming stronger than predicted from previous weather models.
‘Democracy Sausage says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 9:24 pm
Advantages for Albo in delaying calling the election – if he and the government are seen to have managed well the relief efforts for Cyclone Alfred, all the logistical planning and so on, that’ll pay off for Labor in terms of poll ratings and overall perceptions of the government. Deliver the budget on March 25 with some goodies – extra energy rebates for households and businesses etc, if that is received well by the markets and the electorate at large, that’s a plus too.
The downsides of a May election – having to campaign during Easter school holidays, when a lot of people won’t have their minds on politics. Anzac Day gets in the way too.’
=================================
Yep. All upside for Albanese. Dutton will find it difficult to get people to concentrate on his policies during the Easter Holidays and on ANZAC Day.
davesays:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 9:21 pm
Well I think there is the theory that a Warmer planet expands the tropics, thereby extending the range of tropical cyclone activity.
======================================================
I agree with that. If we see cyclones well south of where they have ever gone before, we can probably attribute that single event to global warming. The current cyclone is further south than normal but not outside the known range.
Cheap goods ‘not essence of American dream’, Trump official says amid tariff price fears
Treasury secretary Scott Bessent defends the new administration’s aggressive trade strategy
…
Jesus has anyone explained that to Trumps supports they just voted Biden out because they couldn’t afford eggs.
If smoking causes lung cancer then how come this one non-smoker got lung cancer
BW: “Meh. Earth is one climate system. Increase the energy in the system then ALL events are affected. Even the ones that look ‘normal’.”
——————————————————————————-
That sort of statement is a long way removed from scientific method and far closer to the tendency of the Jehovah’s Witnesses to see evidence of the imminence of the Second Coming in every major global political event.
Also this talk of “campaigning through the holidays” is meaningless. I doubt that most people really pay attention to an election campaign until the final 3 weeks and 17 May is a full 3 weeks after ANZAC day.
It’s how the 2022 election played out after all, the first week was dominated by Albanese’s gaffe, then he caught Covid, then things only resumed when he recovered.
This map of global sea temperature anomalies from historical averages is a bit of a worry. It’s a sea of red.
If nothing much was happening, one would expect, on a global scale, for average and below average to balance out. Red areas (warmer) would more or less balance cool areas (blue). That is not what we’re seeing.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/?ninoIndex=nino3.4&index=nino34&period=weekly#overview-section=Sea-surface-temperature-maps
Democracy Sausagesays:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 9:24 pm
Advantages for Albo in delaying calling the election – if he and the government are seen to have managed well the relief efforts for Cyclone Alfred, all the logistical planning and so on, that’ll pay off for Labor in terms of poll ratings and overall perceptions of the government. Deliver the budget on March 25 with some goodies – extra energy rebates for households and businesses etc, if that is received well by the markets and the electorate at large, that’s a plus too.
The downsides of a May election – having to campaign during Easter school holidays, when a lot of people won’t have their minds on politics. Anzac Day gets in the way too.
======================================================
Which is why May 17th is most likely, or even May 24th, with the agreement of the GG, as both mean the active end of the campaign, is primarily in May.
‘A surprise revenue gain is giving Labor more options to help households in the federal budget to be delivered on March 25, creating room for a new round of energy bill relief before an election that will be held in May.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has confirmed the budget date and election plan after top cabinet ministers signed off on major policies, intensifying a contest on economic policy with Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.
Albanese and senior colleagues decided on Friday to confirm the government’s stated plan to release the budget on March 25 and head to the election in the first weeks of May, after Cyclone Alfred ruled out the option of an earlier election.
The prime minister went public with the plan on the 7.30 program on the ABC on Friday night when host Sarah Ferguson asked him if he was “categorically” ruling out calling the election on Sunday or Monday.
“That’s correct,” he said. “I have no intention of doing anything that distracts from what we need to do, and what we need to do is look after each other at this difficult time. This is not a time for looking at politics.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-sets-up-energy-bill-relief-in-march-budget-for-may-election-20250306-p5lhh5.html
How’s that early election going now?
‘meher baba says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 9:29 pm
BW: “Meh. Earth is one climate system. Increase the energy in the system then ALL events are affected. Even the ones that look ‘normal’.”
——————————————————————————-
That sort of statement is a long way removed from scientific method and far closer to the tendency of the Jehovah’s Witnesses to see evidence of the imminence of the Second Coming in every major global political event.’
===================
Except that there is no ‘scientific method’ in that statement.
It is a statement of how systems function.
Earth is one climate system. Increase the energy in the system then ALL events in the system are affected. Even the ones that look normal.
And with that, it is off to bed.
I hope that all nothern Bludgers are able to stay safe.
Why use the words “election delay”? Albo repeatedly said the Government will do three years. ALP pollies don’t lie, we get more than enough of that from the LNP.
Boerwar says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 8:39 pm
‘B. S. Fairman says:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 8:32 pm
China’s debt is not national debt. It is mostly at the province and city level. But in a country that is controlled by one party, does that fact matter?’
Debt.
Debt is both a liability on one side of the ledger and an asset in the other. The question is never whether debt or asset creation is a good or bad thing. The question is whether or not the servicing requirements can be satisfied. In China, where savings ratios are very high, investment is usually a very good thing. The alternative is an economy that is starved of demand.
meher baba @ #922 Friday, March 7th, 2025 – 8:16 pm
The difference between Alfred and Wanda (the cyclone behind the 1974 Brisbane floods) is that Wanda changed to a rain depression before crossing the coast because it struck ocean below the temperature required to sustain the cyclonic circulation.
With global warming the temperature of the ocean off southern Queensland is now high enough at times to keep fuelling the cyclone and that is what is keeping Alfred going.
This year, we have what amounts to a ten-day Easter-Anzac break, or at least a slowdown, from April 18 to April 27. There are only three work days during this period, which many people will take off.
So I’m expecting a May 17 election, announced on April 14. Campaigning will be mostly squeezed into the last three weeks given that most people will not be paying much attention before then.
”
steve davissays:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 8:56 pm
BW
I suppose there will still be the deniers even after all these weather events.
”
Ask Centre, FUBAR and PP about it.
Ven
They’re too busy at Liberal HQ in WA trying to get more than 3 candidates elected.
Vensays:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 9:45 pm
”
steve davissays:
Friday, March 7, 2025 at 8:56 pm
BW
I suppose there will still be the deniers even after all these weather events.
”
Ask Centre, FUBAR and PP about it.
=============================================
On second thoughts, let’s not.
Quote: “Camelot. ‘Tis a silly place”
Hack – Yes, much of the debt is owed domestical. Which does open the possibility that it is easier for the “government” to do the dirty on the debt holders. There are various ways that could be done – straight up default, printing more money to pay it off, forced acceptance of new terms, etc.
AUKUS is still in nappies and it is starting to loo as it should never be allowed to grow. Turnbull’s option is starting to look a lot better than Morrison’s.
These coal fired power assets are in the hands of private enterprise including significantly Corporations not domiciled in Australia
And they carry debt, so there are lenders involved, lenders who analyse risk
What we do know is that these coal fired power assets are distressed, at the end of their economic life and requiring maintenance
Their transition to stranded assets is on course
Shareholders and bankers are very well educated as to this risk including that there is no alternate use in prospect
But, there is a need to TRANSITION to alternate sources of power, the Tories now introducing nuclear to the equation with the time frame they present and, in the absence of Capital being provided by private enterprise to be funded by government (tax payers)
This transition has been delayed thru never ending climate wars over 2 plus decades now, the climate wars down to the Tories and their fellow travellers, the Greens
So we have an immediate reliance on distressed assets – hence governments supporting Capital to ensure their functioning and the supply of power to you and me
The proprietors are reluctant to commit Capital because they will be held to account by their Shareholders, whose money they are spending on distressed assets on the scrap heap of stranded assets – so, if you like, government is being blackmailed because of the history of climate wars
The collateral issue is not the immediate requirement but the ongoing requirement until alternate sources of power are mature (noting the proprietors of these to be stranded assets are investing into alternate sources (NOT nuclear) such that they have a continuing asset returning for Shareholders)
This is not only in Australia, these Corporations global
So courtesy of the climate wars over decades now, this is where all the parties are (now further complicated by nuclear being added)
Industry trying to exit as fast as possible because any expense on distressed assets headed to stranded assets is wasted money not delivering long term, sustainable cash flow
Government compromised as the end result of culture wars on climate
And you and me expecting to flick a switch and the lights come on
This is brief
If you want a banker’s risk assessment it is brutal – because your first loss is your best loss so get out quick
Money is being burnt for us to be able to flick the switch
But the investment into the requirements to deliver from alternate sources has been delayed (because given the war, Capital has been reticent to spend which is absolutely the right decision, and now questioning given nuclear being added to the conversation)
You do not invest absent a business plan from planning approvals (at cost) to function (at cost) to break even trading and then to profit – and dividends to Shareholders
You do not just flick a switch and presto you have energy from renewable resources
Then you need a banker to attend the risk assessment and to commit to funding