Next week being budget week, we’re likely to see little in the way of polling beyond the usual Roy Morgan, followed by a deluge the week after as the main players to take the field to gauge the public’s response. For now, there’s the following:
• YouGov has published a further result from its April 19-23 survey showing 35% support for Australia recognising Palestine as an independent state with 27% opposed and 44% unsure, with Greens supporters the most enthusiastic and One Nation supporters the least.
• The Australian Electoral Commission, which hitherto offered only the second quarter as the time when the proposed redistributions for New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia would be published, is now saying “late May/early June”. I’ve also noticed for the first time that a redistribution process for the Northern Territory began in late February. With 81,170 voters presently enrolled in Lingiari and 72,748 in Solomon, this is likely to involve a transfer of voters in Palmerston from the latter to the former. This will be welcome for Labor, as the loss of this conservative-voting area will boost their 0.9% margin in Lingiari while reducing their 9.4% margin in Solomon.
• The Liberals have announced Brendan Small, managing director of a local cleaning products firm, as candidate for the New South Wales Central Coast seat of Dobell, held for Labor by Emma McBride on a margin of 6.5%.
• Weeks after I’d forgotten about it, an advisory from the AEC that they are about to archive their Cook by-election media feed prompted me to update my own results page with what are the definitive final results. Liberal candidate Simon Kennedy scored 62.7% of the primary vote, winning at the final count ahead of the Greens with 71.3%.
• The Nationals have preselected Brendan Moylan, a Moree solicitor, as their candidate for the New South Wales state by-election for Northern Tablelands, the date for which the government appears in no hurry to announce. The by-election will choose a successor to Nationals member Adam Marshall, who was re-elected last year with 71.6% of the primary vote and is abandoning state politics at the age of 39, with media reports suggesting he hopes to succeed Barnaby Joyce in New England.
D&M
Getting rid of Iemma left us with Rees and I thought Labor could not get lower but then….
Did the Fascists come to power in the 30s because of a lack of resolve and corruption amongst the Socialists?
Lordbain,
1. ‘We expect Biden to be better than Trump. ‘
He is. Also, as they say in America, he will be ‘graded on the curve.’ Him, or the ‘Muslim Detention and Deportation Camps’ guy. Palestinians are Muslims, remember? So are the voters you highlight in Michigan etc. They are not stupid nor blinded by rage so that they can’t see the binary choice before them, or how staying away would only help Trump. Idealism always meets hard reality at the voting booth.
2. You don’t get to pick Kuru or Ebola, it picks you. Nevertheless, other than ignoring the October 7 attack on Israel, the worst since the Holocaust, you made my case. Biden has helped, and tried to help a lot more but been rebuffed by Netanyahu, the Palestinians. In the teeth of the war. More than even Clinton did. In this situation, it is an environment where things like not sending more big bunker-busting, human life-obliterating bombs to Israel matters. Small moves like that are bigly appreciated.
3. The non-obligatory voting system becomes obligatory if you are facing Deportation if you don’t vote. Also if your friends don’t want you to be deported. It’s as stark as that.
4. Younger voters know that the stakes are high. See above, wrt friends and family and themselves even. Also, from what I have read, they are protesting now mainly to get their universities to divest from their investments in Israel. They will be voting in November about Muslim Detention and Deportation Camps. They are Uni students, they can tell the difference between the issues.
5. Trump is NOT outpolling Biden across the swing states. If you’re looking at Real Clear Politics figures, then they include the most pro Trump polls like Rasmussen. Other than that a lot of the polling is neck and neck, or MOE. Also, as I have stated before, the Biden campaign is planning to come home with the wind in the 4th quarter and deliberately not peak too early.
6. This time President Biden has the power of Incumbency. Also, he’s up against twice impeached insurrection instigator, 4 times indicted, Donald Trump. It’s said that the Republicans are planning to run a ‘corrupt Democrats ‘ campaign. Good luck with that when Donald Trump is top of your ticket.
7. Younger LW voters will be able to see the coming ethnic cleansing of America under Trump as just as important to them as the current mass murder in Gaza (I wouldn’t call it a genocide because there’s still a lot of displaced Gazans left to come back to Gaza).
8. I don’t think that 15-20٪ of the younger voters will stay away simply because of the Gazan situation. There’s too much else that’s important to them, like abortion, that will motivate them to come out to vote. Have you heard about Republican Party Senator, Katie Britt’s plan for a national pregnancy data base that will track all pregnant women in the US so that they will be unable to get an abortion anywhere!?! If I were a young LW Woman that would sure as hell motivate me to get out and vote in November over every other issue.
So, Gaza may be a hot button issue now,but it’s not the only one which will determine how people vote in November.
Been There,
I, for one, am not one of the ‘usual suspects’ when it comes to that topic. I hope that you realise that I am trying to be circumspect, factual and reasonable. That is all Mr Bowe wants and he is removing the more extreme commentary. I think that makes the discussion doable. If we just keep our heads, when all around are losing theirs.
”
Kirsdarkesays:
Sunday, May 12, 2024 at 9:19 pm
“Fun” fact of history is that at the November 1932 German election, the Social Democrats and the Communists combined won more seats than the Nazis (121+100=221 to 196), but because they were more focused on fighting each other, that allowed a certain toothbrush-mustached Austrian with a published book about his intentions for mass genocide to assume power a couple of months later
”
Theodor Heuss, who was West Germany President from 1949-1959, voted to make Hitler quasi-dictator but was never punished.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theodor_Heuss
“On 23 March 1933, along with his four fellow DStP parliamentarians, Heuss voted in favour of the Enabling Act (Ermächtigungsgesetz), granting Chancellor Adolf Hitler quasi-dictatorial powers.[9] He had set out to abstain, but after Heinrich Brüning indicated that with regard to the Reichskonkordat the Centre Party MPs would assent, ultimately subordinated to party discipline.[10]”
Oakeshott Country @ #802 Sunday, May 12th, 2024 – 10:28 pm
Ahhh. No worries.
I was on a train with Nathan Rees one day. Had a chat with him. Seemed nice enough to me. Lives up the central coast now from memory.
Douglas and Milkosays:
Sunday, May 12, 2024 at 8:37 pm
===============================================
I did a stint in security at UNSW 2005/2006.
Worked for Chubb after they took over the regular crew, new contract and all that.
Felt bad about that, didn’t sit well with me, the old crew were not happy about it and I don’t blame them!
Believe me that was a job and a half!
Big campus and a lot of haunted/scary buildings!
Probably crossed paths if you were there at that time.
”
davidwhsays:
Sunday, May 12, 2024 at 9:24 pm
Pied piper the real issue about the current conflict is how Israel is undertaking their response to October 2023. There was a lot of goodwill for Israel to confront Hamas however much of this goodwill is being lost because the rules of war are largely being ignored.
The more longer term issues seem beyond any rational means of resolution. Doesn’t seem to be any good reasons to give either side, sides, unqualified support.
”
davidwh
Recently I read in an article that Israeli people don’t understand why they can’t fight war as they want when US, their benefactor, fought wars many times as they like, Like the Vietnam and Iraq war 2.
Douglas and Milko @ #756 Sunday, May 12th, 2024 – 8:37 pm
D&M. Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ritonavir) is expensive (~$800 for <65yos not covered by PBS inclusions) but much more effective than the alternatives (remdesivir & Lagevro (molnupiravir)) at reducing risk of progression & post-COVID effects if started within 5 days of symptoms – not so much after that. It doesn't have much effect on the 10-14 day "immunologic phase" and the COVID-rebound with Paxlovid is a myth. Good luck – & get reviewed before day 5 if you deteriorate.
Interesting how The Australian entertains and publishes the whinges of ‘Union thugs’ when they want to have a rant against the Albanese government. 🙂
Hi Aqua, I am sure he is a wonderful guy but I don’t think he was Premier material. My view was that he didn’t realise that he was the puppet of the Terrigals until the very end.
Aqualung,
The perception wrt Sussex Street is entirely historical from Oakeshott Country and coloured.
RHW
You have heard of the shenanigans at SLHD?
All good C@t!
Oakeshott Country @ #814 Sunday, May 12th, 2024 – 10:57 pm
Only some & 4th hand. Thickened fluids & shifting dullness?
Probably got on your bus Aqualung!
Central to UNSW.
You weren’t the cranky one I hope , but then what bus driver isn’t cranky?
”
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, May 12, 2024 at 10:56 pm
Hi Aqua, I am sure he is a wonderful guy but I don’t think he was Premier material. My view was that he didn’t realise that he was the puppet of the Terrigals until the very end.
”
He is not qualified to be even a state MP. May be councillor at the most.
Die Zeit der Rache ist gekommen.
C@t
That was rotten luck being informed about your eviction just as you were beginning the trip you had been looking forward to so much. It doesn’t seem to have dampened your enthusiasm though, which is good. I hope when you get back you don’t have too much trouble finding new accommodation.
Oakeshott Country @ #819 Sunday, May 12th, 2024 – 11:05 pm
Rache ist süß.
Douglas and Milko,
I read an article in The Guardian the other day about a fresh new face in French Centre Left politics, Raphael Glucksmann, who is making quite an impact. The article is, ‘In France, we’ve been desperate for a real alternative to Macron and Le Pen. Finally, he’s here.’ By Alexander Hurst on May 10. Well worth taking the time to read it.
Thanks for the kind thoughts, Bystander. Such is life. For the Renter. Rest assured, it won’t be making me vote for The Greens as a result. 😀
Been There @ #817 Sunday, May 12th, 2024 – 11:03 pm
Possibly although on this particular day I was on my way home. Some poor soul had had a close encounter with the overhead wiring at Lidcombe station and brought the western line to a standstill.
My brilliant idea was to get to Chatswood and catch the metro to Tallawong where my son was going to pick me up. I was at Central. The Harbour Bridge railway was closed for the replacement of the wooden deck and sleepers so I caught a train to Wynyard to pick up the replacement buses and he got on it with me.
I can’t for the life of me figure out why they didn’t extend the metro to Schofields. It’s about a kilometre and there was basically nothing between Tallawong and Schofields at that stage. Off topic. Back to Star Trek – The Voyage Home. Live long and prosper
C@t at 11:12pm
If that’s the case, I hope that Raphael Glucksmann starts showing up in opinion polls sooner than later, since according to the polls in this article, Marine Le Pen is winning (albeit narrowly) against pretty much all challengers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2027_French_presidential_election
And furthermore Macron is term-limited, so he cannot run for that election.
Read the article, Kirsdarke, it references polling and gives context.
I reckon Glucksmann could siphon off a lot of Macron’s 17% and more of Melenchon’s 7% and that puts him closer to Le Pen/Jordan Bardella.
C@t,
I’m assuming you mean this article?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/10/france-emmanuel-macron-marine-le-pen-raphael-glucksmann
In that case, I’ll reserve my opinion until after the European elections in France. I’d be very glad if Glucksmann performs well over Le Pen there.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/05/why-does-suspending-standing-orders-in.html
Why Does Suspending Standing Orders In The Tasmanian Assembly Require A Two-Thirds Majority?
Yes, that article (sorry I am not great at linking articles on my tablet). I do hope that the European electors don’t fall for the RW Populists’ siren song.
C@t,
Ah, okay, that’s understandable. Posting links on a tablet is stuff of nightmares to get right.
But yes, on the whole hoping the best for people like Gluckmann in the EU elections in 3 weeks and very much against the far right wing ratbags they’re running against.
(The EU elections running from 6-9 June)
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, May 12, 2024 at 10:35 pm
Lordbain,
1. ‘We expect Biden to be better than Trump. ‘
He is. Also, as they say in America, he will be ‘graded on the curve.’ Him, or the ‘Muslim Detention and Deportation Camps’ guy. Palestinians are Muslims, remember? So are the voters you highlight in Michigan etc. They are not stupid nor blinded by rage so that they can’t see the binary choice before them, or how staying away would only help Trump. Idealism always meets hard reality at the voting booth.
———————-
Another group of voters to watch in November might be Raegan era republican boomers and gen x. since they wouldn’t be feeling any love from the MAGA republicans and they know Biden is gone in four years.
Just watched a brilliant interview on the Silicon Curtain YouTube channel with Ukraine Vlogger, Jake Broe, where he goes outside his usual remit to talk more expansively about Putin, Russia, the war and the West. It’s titled: Jake Broe-despite incremental gains in territory Russia has failed to breakthrough. If someone could link it here I would really appreciate it. It’s that good!
No newspoll after 3 weeks , things have not change , not good news for federal lib/nats and propaganda media units
Could people please absorb this message:
2 sets of Battleground State polls out this week-CBS & Emerson- have Joe Biden and Donald Trump equal within the MoE in every state now. There has been encouraging polls out of Arizona and Wisconsin. Senate and House polls are looking good, and the GOP has a ‘bad candidate’ problem again. The Republicans are in the midst of their own civil war and they have almost a zero presence on the ground in the Battleground States. Don’t lose hope guys!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/big-business-has-one-big-problem-with-sydney-s-tolling-shake-up-20240510-p5jchk.html
If ever you needed evidence that the toll roads are serving corporate investors rather than drivers, here it is.
Hey C@t
https://youtu.be/AYvyNr4ZMSs?t=2
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/liberals-new-game-plan-to-take-on-teals-and-it-involves-women-20240510-p5jcht.html
The Liberals do not have a woman problem. The party has a man problem.
Self selecting poll for sure, but what is the top end of town wanting from the Budget? An insight into what is hurting them..
Almost 60 per cent of surveyed readers want the government to either reduce debt or rein in spending, with only one in four suggesting cost-of-living relief should be a priority.
Debt reduction and spending restraint were each selected by 20 per cent of The Australian Financial Review readers asked to nominate their preferred focus for this week’s budget.
Another 24 per cent said cost-of-living relief should be priority, while funding defence and increasing revenue were each selected by just 5 per cent of readers.
The budget, Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ third, will be handed down on Tuesday evening. Market expectations are that the government will limit new spending, despite a forecast surplus, to help keep inflation under control.
Almost half, or 47 per cent, of readers were not confident Dr Chalmers could balance “fiscal responsibility with easing cost-of-living pressures”.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/readers-want-government-to-cut-debt-rein-in-spending-20240512-p5jcwr#:~:text=Almost%2060%20per%20cent%20of,relief%20should%20be%20a%20priority.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Both Albanese and Dutton believe they’re on the right track. But one of them must be wrong, says Sean Kelly who thinks that ahead of budget week, both will be risk averse.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/both-albanese-and-dutton-believe-they-re-on-the-right-track-but-one-of-them-must-be-wrong-20240510-p5jcmp.html
Inflation is likely to be within the Reserve Bank’s target band of 2 to 3 per cent by the end of the year, the federal budget will reveal tomorrow, and will reduce pressure on official interest rates but also signal an economy struggling to grow fast enough to generate strong jobs growth.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-budget-promises-good-news-on-inflation-and-interest-rates-but-there-s-a-flipside-20240512-p5jcvd.html
Jim Chalmers could well be setting the government up for a potential political catastrophe ahead of the election if Treasury’s new inflation forecasts are wrong, says Simon Benson.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/jim-chalmers-rolls-the-dice-on-inflation/news-story/e57ffb06ce6518001be96f367c02ff39?amp=
Shane Wright looks at how well the government has addressed the five major budgetary issues it identified after taking power.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-five-key-pressures-on-the-budget-and-how-they-ve-blown-out-over-time-20240510-p5jcna.html
Ross Gittins declares that Labor’s persistent refusal to fix the JobSeeker payment is shameful.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/labor-s-persistent-refusal-to-fix-the-jobseeker-payment-is-shameful-20240512-p5jcw8.html
Universities will be forced to stop a surge in overseas students and help cut annual migration to 260,000 a year under a federal cap that has sparked fears of drastic intervention that hurts the sector. David Crowe writes that the federal plan will require universities and other education providers to slash the growth in overseas student numbers from the 15 per cent increase they recorded last year, under talks aimed at driving that number toward 5 per cent.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/inside-labor-s-drastic-cap-on-overseas-students-and-the-urgent-meeting-it-s-triggered-20240512-p5jcve.html
The SMH reports that a man released from immigration detention by the former Coalition government has been convicted of carrying an illegal weapon in the wake of being charged with assault in the alleged bashing of Perth grandmother Ninette Simons and says this might take a bit of sting out of the opposition’s attacks on Labor.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/weapons-conviction-piles-pressure-on-dutton-over-released-detainee-20240511-p5jcsn.html
Discrimination against pregnant workers or those on parental leave is on the rise – complaints about that issue and redundancy have increased by 15 per cent in the past year. Amber Schultz tells us that some employers directly told employees their pregnancy would “bankrupt the business”. Other employers were less explicit, excluding new mothers from meetings and handing their responsibilities to other staff members, making them redundant, then hiring the maternity cover into a permanent role.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/you-ll-bankrupt-the-business-pregnant-workers-made-redundant-20240509-p5jb8o.html
“Is the Coalition planning to overtake Labor and tax rich inner-city EV drivers?”, asks Paul Karp. He says the commonwealth had state electrical vehicle taxes struck down in court and now reform is stuck in the slow lane.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/may/13/is-the-coalition-planning-to-overtake-labor-and-tax-rich-inner-city-ev-drivers
The latest news on emissions is not good. The annual climate update was buried by other news, notably the climate damaging Future Gas Strategy, writes David McEwen who opines that Labor is staring down the barrel of a climate defeat.
https://michaelwest.com.au/the-other-budget-labor-staring-at-climate-deficit/
No silver bullet is going to fix our housing woes, but there is now a window of opportunity through which real and significant change can occur, suggests Scott Langford.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/housing-system-is-broke-and-broken-but-government-alone-can-t-solve-this-crisis-20240512-p5jcv9.html
Ahead of the ALP state conference this weekend, Influential construction unions have joined more than 30 Labor branches in contesting the Allan government’s plans to redevelop Melbourne’s 44 public housing towers.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/building-unions-labor-branches-clash-with-state-on-housing-towers-demolition-20240512-p5jcvj.html
Labor’s paid placements are a slap in the face, not a saving grace, argues Victoria Devine.
https://www.smh.com.au/money/planning-and-budgeting/labor-s-paid-placements-are-a-slap-in-the-face-not-a-saving-grace-20240510-p5jcl8.html
The SMH editorial commends Chris Minns for committing to an apology to the LGBTQ community.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/we-commend-minns-for-committing-to-an-apology-to-lgbtq-community-20240512-p5jcxs.html
Kate McClymont tells us about the dirty stuff behind the arson of Jordan Shanks’ home. It’s not pretty.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-abc-reporter-the-underworld-postman-and-the-sinister-threats-20240512-p5jcxf.html
Alexandra Smith writes that the NSW Liberals will run female candidates for the first time in the federal seats of Wentworth and North Sydney as the party tries to wrest both back from teal independents and convince voters it has made ground in fixing its so-called women problem.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/liberals-new-game-plan-to-take-on-teals-and-it-involves-women-20240510-p5jcht.html
The Albanese government has directly, if unintentionally, rewarded Hamas and its long history of anti-Semitic terrorism, complains Greg Sheridan.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/australia-rewards-hamas-for-antisemitic-terror-by-voting-to-admit-palestine-as-a-un-member-state/news-story/39a867451ccc6377a5bae35ad49dc38a?amp=
Palestinian statehood is the only way forward for peace – and our media don’t help, posits Margaret Reynolds.
https://johnmenadue.com/palestinian-statehood-is-the-only-way-forward-for-peace/
At Donald Trump’s New York criminal trial, his lawyers have insisted he had “nothing to do” with any of the felony charges against him. But testimony from prosecution witnesses over the past several weeks has called that argument into question, underscoring that Trump can be obsessive about two all-important aspects of his work: anything having to do with the media, and anything having to do with his money. The 34 documents at the heart of the prosecution’s case relate to both obsessions, explains The New York Times.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-is-a-micromanager-prosecutors-doubt-he-d-let-lawyers-handle-stormy-daniels-20240512-p5jcw6.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Megan Herbert
Alan Moir
Joe Benke
Jon Kudelka
Mark David
Peter Broelman
Mark Knight
Spooner
From the US
Thanks BK. It is as though the Fourth Estate had a pow wow to come up with bad news week. Even inflation tracking down is bad!
The news has been pretty bleak for a while now. Last week there were several women who were either attacked or murdered by their male partners. It feels like it’s never ending.
The Michealwest article makes for depressing reading… but hey, so does anything that reminds me just how pathetic the global action on climate change is
Much thanks BK!
Lordbain says:
Monday, May 13, 2024 at 7:45 am
The Michealwest article makes for depressing reading… but hey, so does anything that reminds me just how pathetic the global action on climate change is
____________
Here is a song for this morning 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MW6E_TNgCsY
Jim Chalmers will put the government’s economic credibility on the line 12 months out from the election, with Treasury forecasts in Tuesday’s budget expecting inflation to hit the 2-3 per cent target band by December – a year faster than new Reserve Bank projections.
In a major divergence from updated RBA forecasts released last week, Dr Chalmers’ third budget will assume a rapid fall in inflation that if realised would heap pressure on the central bank to slash rates ahead of a May 2025 election.
Treasury forecasts, which downgrade economic growth over the next two financial years, suggest the headline inflation rate will return to the target band by the end of 2024. The assumption is in sharp contrast with RBA projections that inflation and rates will remain higher for longer.
The RBA board, which has hiked rates 12 times since the 2022 election when inflation was running at 6.1 per cent, kept the cash rate at 4.35 per cent at their meeting last Tuesday but did not rule-out further increases if inflation remains sticky.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/jim-chalmers-big-inflation-bet-puts-him-at-odds-with-rba/news-story/d61b503b7f5a32ec7bacd4f3fb2d21a7?amp
Good morning all and thank you, BK.
Classic late Autumn sunny day. Crisp on the outside and warm on the inside.
I’d say Labor’s only hope is to reconnect with their battlers before they turn into Dutton’s Battlers.
A good start would be flensing the NDIS and cutting Migration/Student visas by 90%.
I woke up from the strangest dream.
Trump (or his team) decided that the only way to win the general election was to repent his sins and find god. In my dream he was positioning himself as the new saviour from the lord. He went on a tour of the Americas, speaking in front of crowds of 100,000s of thousands. The election was badged as a holy war that only the true believers could stop from being taken away by the heretics and blasphemers. Unfortunately I woke before the outcome was revealed.
As I say, an odd one.
Ross Gittins declares that Labor’s persistent refusal to fix the JobSeeker payment is shameful.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/labor-s-persistent-refusal-to-fix-the-jobseeker-payment-is-shameful-20240512-p5jcw8.html
—————————
Thanks BK. Shameful is correct but that is Labor/Liberal policy in most areas. Identical.
Business must be allowed to rort the taxpayer, gain a payment, by claiming they had helped the unemployed find a job. When they hadn’t.
It is right faction Minister Tony Burke who oversees this department.
Likely involved in Labor’s big immigration policy. As well as the big Labor donors, the gas industry, having freedom with Labor help, to expand their drilling and gain even more $billions from overseas sales.
Global warming risks by increasing gas burning is of no interest to Labor. Business must not be denied their right to our resources.
While the gas companies price for Australian consumers and business is too expensive for many.
Of course, these policies put Albanese in the firing eye of many.
If Biden wins the election but dies before the inauguration does Kamala Harris become President , or do Biden’s electors vote decide it ?
Anyone know the answer ?
#weatheronPB
Freely blazing forth,
we dare not look upon her,
grateful for her warmth.
Lars Von Trier @ #848 Monday, May 13th, 2024 – 8:29 am
They’d both still be sworn in from the 2020 election, its kind of a re-swearing. Interesting problem defining the infinity of the moment whereby one presidential term ends and another starts.