Monday miscellany: RedBridge poll, Dunkley and teal seat polls, preselection latest (open thread)

More evidence of strong support for the stage three tax cut changes, but with Labor failing to make ground and facing a close result in Dunkley.

RedBridge Group has conducted its first federal poll for the year, and the movement it records since its last poll in early December is in favour of the Coalition, who are up three points on the primary vote to 38%. Labor and the Greens are steady at 33% and 13% with others down three to 16%, and Labor records a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, in from 52.8-47.2. A question on negative gearing finds an even split of 39% each for and against the status quo, with the latter composed of 16% who favour removing it from new rental properties in future and 23% for removing it altogether. Further detail is forthcoming, including on field work dates and sample size.

Progressive think tank the Australia Institute has published a number of federal seat-level automated phone polls conducted by uComms, most notably for Dunkley, whose by-election is now less than three weeks away. The result is a 52-48 lead to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 56.3-43.7 split in favour of Labor in 2022. After distributing a forced response follow-up question for the unusually large 17% undecided component, the primary votes are Labor 40.1% (40.2% at the election), Liberal 39.3% (32.5%), Greens 8.2% (10.3%) and others 12.4% (16.9%). A question on the tax cut changes finds 66.3% in favour and 28.1% opposed, although the question offered a bit too much explanatory detail for my tastes. The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 626.

The other polls are from the teal independent seats of Kooyong, Mackellar and Wentworth, conducted last Monday from samples of 602 to 647. They show the incumbents leading in each case despite losing primary vote share to Labor, together with strong support for the tax cut changes. In Kooyong, distributing results from a forced response follow-up for the 9.7% undecided produces primary vote shares of 33.5% for Monique Ryan (the only candidate mentioned by name, down from 40.3% in 2022), 39.5% for the Liberals (42.7%), 15.7% for Labor (6.9%) and 7.5% for the Greens (6.3%). Ryan is credited with a 56-44 lead on two-candidate preferred, but preference flows from 2022 would make it more like 53.5-46.5.

In Mackellar, distribution of the 10.8% initially undecided gets incumbent Sophie Scamps to 32.2% of the primary vote (38.1%), with 39.3% for Liberal (41.4%), 14.8% for Labor (8.2%) and 6.6% for the Greens (6.1%). This comes out at 54-46 after preferences (52.5-47.5 in 2022), but I make is 52.7-47.3 using the flows from 2022. In Wentworth, Allegra Spender gets the best result out of the three, with distribution of 6.3% undecided putting her primary vote at 35.1% (35.8% in 2022), with Liberal on 39.0% (40.5%), Labor on 15.3% (10.9%) and Greens on 10.4% (8.3%). The reported two-candidate preferred is 57-43, but the preference flow in this case is weaker than it was when she won by 54.2-45.8 in 2022, the result being 59.2-40.8 based on preference flows at the election.

Federal preselection news:

Andrew Hough of The Advertiser reports South Australia’s Liberals will determine the order of their Senate ticket “within weeks”, with the moderate Anne Ruston tussling with the not-moderate Alex Antic for top place. The third incumbent, David Fawcett, a Senator since 2011 and previously member for Wakefield from 2004 to 2007, will be left to vie for the dubious third position against political staffer and factional conservative Leah Blyth.

• The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports nominations have closed for the Liberal preselection in Gilmore, and that Andrew Constance has again put his name forward, after narrowly failing to win the seat in 2022 and twice being overlooked for Senate vacancies last year. He faces competition from Paul Ell, a moderate-aligned lawyer and Shoalhaven deputy mayor who had long been mentioned as a potential candidate for the seat, having been persuaded to leave the path clear for Constance in 2022.

Hannah Cross of The West Australian reports Sean Ayres, a 26-year-old lawyer and staffer to former member Ben Morton, has emerged as a fourth Liberal preselection contender in the normally conservative Perth seat of Tangney, joining SAS veteran Mark Wales, Canning mayor and former police officer Patrick Hall and IT consultant Harold Ong.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,288 comments on “Monday miscellany: RedBridge poll, Dunkley and teal seat polls, preselection latest (open thread)”

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  1. ”What about Dutton then? And where do they rank on the relative scales of terribleness re: Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison/Trump? A cane toad and a nuclear bomb are both terrible things but of different degrees.”

    Trump is by a big margin the most terrible, a genuine fascist, racist and likely psychopath who has little regard for and little understanding of his country’s Constitution, institutions and democratic processes. He also has no regard for people and allies except to the extent that he can use them to his advantage. That plus he has nuclear bombs (but no cane toads). The prospect of his return to power is genuinely scary.

    Turnbull is more a mainstream “moderate” Liberal, economically conservative and socially liberal. Not terrible but I wouldn’t vote for him.

    Abbott, Morrison and Dutton are all terrible. Ready to reach for the dogwhistle, ready to divide and conquer, ready to punch down, mendacious, refusing to accept accountability and blaming others for their failures. None have the partially redeeming virtue of competence.

    I think I’ve listed them in increasing order of terribleness in the previous para. None are as bad as Trump. Unlike Trump, Morrison accepted his election loss. Abbott accepted his ousting through legitimate Parliamentary processes.

  2. MelbourneMammoth says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 8:53 am
    “Episode 1: Tony Abbott is a terrible person
    Episode 2: Malcolm Turnbull wasn’t that terrible but he was surrounded by terrible people and couldn’t get much done.
    Episode 3: haven’t seen yet, but yes, Scott Morrison is a terrible person.”

    What about Dutton then? And where do they rank on the relative scales of terribleness re: Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison/Trump? A cane toad and a nuclear bomb are both terrible things but of different degrees.

    To help MelbourneMammoth, it is timely to redux the genealogy of how we got here…

    The Lying Rodent begat
    The Lying Friar begat
    The Lying Waffle begat
    The Liar from the Shire begat
    The Truthful Thug

  3. I have to say that money has never been my jam. As long as I have enough to survive comfortably, then others can have the rest. I guess that’s why I will never be a Conservative. They love money too much.

    Speaking of which, there’s been some interesting conversations about Universal Basic Income and its intersectionality with the AI revolution coming headlong down the pike,recently. The main question being,what do you do as a society with all the people who will be thrown out of work by AI? And it includes a lot of creative people as well as those doing mundane work. It’s no solution to just put them in their homes in front of their computer screens, commenting on politics, watching daytime TV, or playing games. So,what to do with them?

  4. goll says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 8:40 am
    “the great dividing range” is a great name for the inevitable republic that “Australia” will become.
    The inordinate “great divide” distinction on display, whether it be through wealth, taxation, housing, transport, education, wages, income, nutrition, travel, race, health, communication and opportunity has become so stark that once well regarded referencing to a “fair dinkum” Australia has long gone.

    Albanese and Labor are still in front, not because of their mastery of the “art of the impossible” but rather that enough voters identify with glimmer of hope, some trustworthiness and a lotteries chance of sorting through the quagmire of self centred greed and corruption that is the first twenty years of the 21st century in the lucky country.

    More likely some voters have a false hope that Labor, on the big issues are different to the Liberals and Nationals.
    But Labor insist they must keep all Howard’s, Morrisons and Dutton’s polices.
    As the months progress less will be convinced there is any difference.

    Robodebt as well as the choice of Offshore Contractors for the Asylum seeker detention centres was well known by the Albanese Opposition during the last Morrison government. But they said nothing.
    Opposing as an LOTO is not what Albanese chose to do.

    Player One says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 8:44 am
    A shocker … no longer content with just being a domestic climate vandal, we want to become an international one …

    Michael West gets to the truth our taxpayer representatives want kept silent.
    When our international fossil fuel buyers want our gas, with requirements, we say yes.
    As Shorten said before the May 2019 election, we can’t risk our fossil fuel buyers going elsewhere, so we must agree to their demands. ‘Sovereign risk’ too great.

    Labor rapidly losing any credibility on effectively reducing CO2 emissions. In actuality from the beginning of the Albanese government.

    And Grant_ExLibris says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 9:21 am

    Stop all public funding to private schools. These are businesses not education providers. If they cannot cover their expenses shut them down and the government should take them over.

    Agree. But Labor are chasing the wealthier Australian voters. So unlikely any more money found for public schools to help those in need of more resources.

    Be interesting to see how much further Labor’s first preference vote falls.

  5. T**** (The Unnameable One/New Voldemort) may be a foul and beastly individual but there is still a difference between someone like him whose governance was incompetent and a shambles (he did not appoint any ministers of significant competence) and a far-right dictatorship where the ministers and executive appointees have a modicum of genuine competence that while life is still awful for dissenters, the country and economy at least continues to function in a stable manner. The latter is arguably worse.

    The only examples that come to mind are Apartheid South Africa in the 1950s and 1960s, and Taiwan under Chiang Kai-shek between 1949 and 1975. I wonder if South American dictatorships are a similar example.

  6. Nothing wrong with democratic socialism when done right- look at Scandinavia and even Flanders for instance.

    Just a shame that here in australia all the revenue that would be able to fund it is tied up in tax-avoiding creative corporate and individual accounting, usage of legislative loopholes( trusts, investment property and wealth portfolios) and the inability of a government to take on the status quo.

    How can we not have a resource rent tax, for instance. Absolutely criminal that the likes of Gina etc can lay claim to the holes in the ground just because their father went through staking out pegs in the ground to declare it theirs

  7. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK, and thanks for reporting the Guardian poll, Oliver Sutton. On this result, I am aghast. It is one thing to fall for the Murdoch media schtick that the LNP are superior economic managers. But how could anyone be stupid enough to believe the LNP will make taxes fairer?

    “Guardian Essential poll:

    “create a fair taxation system”
    Labor 31%
    Coalition 29%
    no difference 41%”

  8. Former Brisbane lord mayor Jim Soorley popped up recently and suggested Labor could form a minority government with the Greens. He suggested the Greens were threat to some Labor seats. But were a bigger threat to Liberal seats. The comments were not entirely welcome by Labor councilors pushing the line. They were aiming for a majority in their own right.

    Its been a long time between drinks for Labor in Brisbane city council. I don’t follow Brisbane city council politics. But the Liberals have seemed to run a very tight ship. This is in comparison to their state LNP counter parts. That a dominated with a sea of red Labor state seats all throughout Brisbane.

  9. Zero commitment to zero net fifty or any intervening target, active undermining of international climate action plus SMNRs, plus astroturfing anti wind farms, plus astroturfing anti transmission lines, plus undermining and defunding climate science, plus undoing the emissions standards and plus cutting whatever climate action funding they can.


    a legislated commitment to 43/30, plus a long term commitment to zero net fifty, plus $20 billion in climate action expenditure, plus public support for wind power, plus public support for solar power, plus the phased closing down of coal-fired power stations, plus support for climate science, the construction of the national grid and the unleashing of private investment in renewables.

    The only ‘same old, same old’ in this neck of the woods are some same old, same old Labor loathing fools.

  10. leftieBrawlersays:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 9:51 am
    Nothing wrong with democratic socialism when done right- look at Scandinavia and even Flanders for instance.

    So I assume you are campaigning for a 20% GST then?

  11. The only greenwashing that some posters are truly interested is in the so-called eco-resorts providing cover for an industry that pumps out 8% of the world’s CO2 emissions.
    And growing.

  12. No jocobin,
    Increasing GST is a little gem straight out of the LNP playbook of cheap tricks.

    I’m talking about the legislative protection rackets that ensure a continuing bulwark against the equitable sharing of the nation’s wealth.

  13. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 9:30 am

    I have to say that money has never been my jam. As long as I have enough to survive comfortably, then others can have the rest. I guess that’s why I will never be a Conservative. They love money too much.
    I don’t think it’s just conservatives, and I think the moderate wing of the Liberals are more enterprise focused. The conservatives are obsessed with cultural battles mostly.

    Look at the Norwegians, social democrats almost to a man, yet they have amassed one of the great fortunes. A well regulated market is all I ask for.

  14. My first preference vote could go Green, Labor or Teal, depending on the seat I am in and the current state of play. Latham’s abandonment of ATSIC and Gillard’s abandonment of single mothers infuriated me and sent me Green for a while. I’m glad things have moved away from those dark days.

  15. So I assume you are campaigning for a 20% GST then?

    Does it come with a corresponding yet progressive income tax reduction (and associated benefit increases for those not paying income tax)?

    There would be a lot of people who can reduce consumption but unable to easily increase income. A 20% GST could be sold to them as an incentive to reduce consumption (and hence consumption tax) and thus increase savings (thanks to the reduction in consumption and consumption tax and increase in income) for either retirement, housing, a business venture, a second property (?), or an exe eco tourism holiday.

    Shall we also discuss the wonders and potential popularity of a high threshold bequeathment tax?

  16. Bill Shorten the most effective opposition leader in recent elections ,who seen 2 liberal party prime ministers in 1st term
    and at the 2016 federal election
    Lib/nats 76 seats (91 seats 2013)
    Labor 69 seats (55 seats 2013)

  17. On a well-regulated capital market, for those who want to make money and how that intersects with the government, on that we are in furious agreement, nath.

    And I was just listening to a conversation about NG on the radio as I drove around and the general consensus, again, was that NG is a problem at the margins, even as far as Renters are concerned. Supply is the key to unlock pressure on Renters and Buyers alike. And making sure there is no explosion of immigration, student/temporary and permanent.

  18. I have raised here before the question of why are we spending $5 billion buying Apache attack helicopters? Other NATO allies are abandoning them as too vulnerable in light of experience in the Ukraine War. USA just cancelled their next class and Japan is selling their Apaches.

    If we want to employ more local people this money could/should be used to finish the Army purchase of Boxer IFVs (made in Ipswich) and/or Redback IFVs (made in Marles’ own seat in Geelong). We can replace the helicopters with drones for a fraction of the cost.

    If Marles wants to save $5 billion, the Apache order is the first place to start. The Abrams tanks are the second.

  19. nath is always too harsh on Shorten. However, Shorten is without doubt the worst in front of camera Aus political leaders I have seen. Good on a prepared speech. Seems more than adequate in policy. Kept his team in reasonable order. Designed an decent campaign platform. But selling and pitching, persuading, fluency in answering questions, believability, charisma and thinking on his feet? OMG.

  20. Nath(?)

    Was it you who raised some (valid) questions yesterday about economics and impacts on home affordability for the young and inter-generational equity?

    Whoever it was this is an economic policy article that finally acknowledges what every member of Gen X and Gen y/Millenials has known for two decades: current economic policy is biased in favour of holders of existing wealth i.e. mostly boomers. It is not necessarily economically efficient.

  21. nath says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 10:27 am
    Scott, how did you get out of Jonestown?
    No matter what personally you think about Shorten

    He was politically effective as an opposition leader and unlucky , too many Australian votes fell gullible to the propaganda against Labor/Shorten

  22. Leftie, I think it was Richard Pratt who said if you took all the money from everybody and threw it up in the air – it would still end up ultimately with the same people.

    Equality of opportunity is good, equality of outcome is not achievable.

    Tax reform of the sort ur talking about is desirable but won’t happen without an overhaul of our broken political system. Notwithstanding Australia still operates a substantial system of transfer payments to ameliorate disadvantage.

  23. leftieBrawler says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 9:51 am

    Trusts are not created legislatively. If, say, I own a truck and leave it with you on the condition that it will be returned at some time in the future, a trust has been created between you and I. The truck is an asset of trust. The trust owes me a truck. If you or I or someone employed by the ‘trust’ starts a delivery business using the truck the income earned belongs to the trust. It doesn’t belong to you. It doesn’t belong to me. Neither you nor I should be paying tax on the income. And yet there is income and it should be taxed. It is taxed. The “trust” pays the tax. It’s taxable even though the trust only exists in a kind of invisible sense; only because of an arrangement between individuals.

    The Tax Act generally sets out to tax the income accruing to trusts as if they were corporations or individuals even though they are neither of those things.

    Regarding resources tax, generally these materials are vested in the States. The Commonwealth cannot take anything from anyone, including the States, other than ‘on just terms’. The Commonwealth has no right to appropriate from the States that which belongs to the States. End of story, really. The revenue derived from the extraction of resources accrues in public hands – with the States. It is misleading to suggest resources are not taxed. They are. Rudd tried to use the Tax Act to execute a partial nationalisation of both the losses and the profits accruing from resource extraction. Along with a couple of other errors, this cost him his office.

  24. Scott says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 10:39 am

    “too many Australian votes fell gullible to the propaganda against Labor/Shorten”

    …because Labor would never do that. Ever. Apparently.

  25. Lars,

    Pratt said a lot of things and if he said that it must be one of the most sanitised and benign things to ever leave his mouth and associated grotesque head.

    But democratic socialism isn’t about ensuring equality of outcome, just a reasonable and adequate minimum social safety net for all.

    Equality of outcome is related to communism and sadly many either cannot or chose not to distinguish these crucial differences between socialism and communism.

  26. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 8:12 am
    billie: The doxing legislation will not be restricted to any one particular religious or other group. It will protect the privacy of everyone.

    Does using the cover of a supposed civil defamation case. Which you ultimately don’t go through with. To use the courts to uncover the identity of a anonymous poster. Is also equal to doxing?.Asking for PRGuy17.

  27. Lars Von Trier says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 10:42 am
    Leftie, I think it was Richard Pratt who said if you took all the money from everybody and threw it up in the air – it would still end up ultimately with the same people.

    Well he would say that, would he not.

    Pratt has used a quasi-monopolistic dominance to vastly enrich himself. Murdoch has done the same thing. The energy companies seek the same advantages, as do the financial corporations. The monopolies in Australia should be dismantled. That way the income would be shared more widely.

  28. The GST Base should be expanded to 100% of the tax base (as NZ nearly is).

    This should be done with similar offsets as was done when the GST first came in – increased transfer payments and tax cuts.

    If the Australian Democrats hadn’t fucked it up there would be plenty of GST going into State coffers now and now need to amend it. Dickheads.

  29. leftieBrawler says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 9:51 am

    I’m interested to know what your proposed changes are to The Mining Act (1978) in WA.

  30. Network 10 is losing this battle with Wilkinson. If, which is admitted, 10 gave her advice as to the Logies’ speech, then her speech can be properly be regarded as being given in the course of her employment hence they meet her legal costs.

  31. Scott says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 10:33 am
    Didn’t know the lehrmann vs Wilkinson ,ch10 trial was on today , thought it was over


    This is Wilkinson v Channel 10. It’s a tangential issue about whether Ch 10 should pay for Wilkinson’s separate (from Ch 10) representation in the defamation case.

  32. Grant_ExLibrissays:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 9:21 am

    “Stop all public funding to private schools.”

    You don’t do politics, do you. Good luck with taking that policy to an election.

    “These are businesses not education providers.”

    No, they aren’t. They are not-for-profit organisations.

    “Education should be free and open to all regardless of circumstances.”

    It is. If parents choose to send their kids to Government Schools then there are no school fees. There may be costs for some items and activities, but not School Fees.

  33. What worries me is rich well resourced people will still be able to dox anyone they choose to. As they can carry out a fake defamation cases to uncover the identity of people who are saying things they dislike. By getting the courts to agree to their discovery demands. Certainly in the case i posted above @10:51pm an ultra far right Jewish person with access to large amount of funds. Was able to use them to get disclosure orders in courts against an anonymous poster whose political ideology was different to him. As the poster was a big supporter of Dan Andrews.

  34. Shellbell says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 11:07 am

    But as an employee, why should the employer pay for other representation when the employer already has adequate representation?

  35. “But as an employee, why should the employer pay for other representation when the employer already has adequate representation?”

    They cut her loose in relation to the Logies’ speech

  36. FUBAR, re the 1978 WA mining act I can’t claim an encyclopaedic recall of it by any measure.

    However what is the section that explicitly states that compelling reasons must be provided to prevent the free exploration of any lands for the purpose of prospecting? 102?

    But in any case if an ACT could be a movie character, that one is Daniel Plainview from the 2007 masterpiece “there will be blood” personified

  37. Irene 9.31am
    “More likely some voters have a false hope that Labor, on the big issues are different to the Liberals and Nationals.
    But Labor insist they must keep all Howard’s, Morrisons and Dutton’s polices.
    As the months progress less will be convinced there is any difference.”

    The polls are not indicating your assertion.
    Albanese and Labor are making progress in many areas, undoing embedded LNP imbalance and favouritism. The Howard pandering to the better off, environmental conservatives and the property “tycoons” will need years to rectify.
    Essentially Howard was a “political vandal” masquerading as “fair” minded carer for the Australian voters.
    Howard was the luckiest politician for a multitude of reasons and the boomer devotees benefitting from never seen before affluence.
    Inflation and house prices “wat done it”.

    Albanese and Labor are no offering all the answers just some transparent honesty so missing from the Australia in the 21st C.

    Simply, the Liberal, the Nationals and their cohorts have been woeful.

    Look at the litany of good old fashioned “hands in the he till” and corruption over the last 23 1/2 years.

    Howard was famous for saying ” you wouldn’t want house prices to fall”.

    We are suffering from a succession of “fuck you ” LNP governments.

    Dutton will be exposed before he goes to the polls as leader.

    Barnaby will look like a “choir boy” when Dutton’s foibles are on display.

  38. FUBAR says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 11:13 am
    Shellbell says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 11:07 am

    But as an employee, why should the employer pay for other representation when the employer already has adequate representation?


    Because Wilkinson was sued in her own right, separate from Channel 10. The question here is not whether she should have her own representation. If she was represented by Channel 10’s legal team their first responsibility would be to their client – Channel 10. Which means they could legitimately throw her to the wolves (if there was a basis to do so) if it were in the legitimate interests of their client.

    The issue here is whether Channel 10 should pay for her separate representation – in regard to whether she was being sued for conduct that occurred as an employee/contractor of Channel 10.

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