Monday miscellany: RedBridge poll, Dunkley and teal seat polls, preselection latest (open thread)

More evidence of strong support for the stage three tax cut changes, but with Labor failing to make ground and facing a close result in Dunkley.

RedBridge Group has conducted its first federal poll for the year, and the movement it records since its last poll in early December is in favour of the Coalition, who are up three points on the primary vote to 38%. Labor and the Greens are steady at 33% and 13% with others down three to 16%, and Labor records a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, in from 52.8-47.2. A question on negative gearing finds an even split of 39% each for and against the status quo, with the latter composed of 16% who favour removing it from new rental properties in future and 23% for removing it altogether. Further detail is forthcoming, including on field work dates and sample size.

Progressive think tank the Australia Institute has published a number of federal seat-level automated phone polls conducted by uComms, most notably for Dunkley, whose by-election is now less than three weeks away. The result is a 52-48 lead to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 56.3-43.7 split in favour of Labor in 2022. After distributing a forced response follow-up question for the unusually large 17% undecided component, the primary votes are Labor 40.1% (40.2% at the election), Liberal 39.3% (32.5%), Greens 8.2% (10.3%) and others 12.4% (16.9%). A question on the tax cut changes finds 66.3% in favour and 28.1% opposed, although the question offered a bit too much explanatory detail for my tastes. The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 626.

The other polls are from the teal independent seats of Kooyong, Mackellar and Wentworth, conducted last Monday from samples of 602 to 647. They show the incumbents leading in each case despite losing primary vote share to Labor, together with strong support for the tax cut changes. In Kooyong, distributing results from a forced response follow-up for the 9.7% undecided produces primary vote shares of 33.5% for Monique Ryan (the only candidate mentioned by name, down from 40.3% in 2022), 39.5% for the Liberals (42.7%), 15.7% for Labor (6.9%) and 7.5% for the Greens (6.3%). Ryan is credited with a 56-44 lead on two-candidate preferred, but preference flows from 2022 would make it more like 53.5-46.5.

In Mackellar, distribution of the 10.8% initially undecided gets incumbent Sophie Scamps to 32.2% of the primary vote (38.1%), with 39.3% for Liberal (41.4%), 14.8% for Labor (8.2%) and 6.6% for the Greens (6.1%). This comes out at 54-46 after preferences (52.5-47.5 in 2022), but I make is 52.7-47.3 using the flows from 2022. In Wentworth, Allegra Spender gets the best result out of the three, with distribution of 6.3% undecided putting her primary vote at 35.1% (35.8% in 2022), with Liberal on 39.0% (40.5%), Labor on 15.3% (10.9%) and Greens on 10.4% (8.3%). The reported two-candidate preferred is 57-43, but the preference flow in this case is weaker than it was when she won by 54.2-45.8 in 2022, the result being 59.2-40.8 based on preference flows at the election.

Federal preselection news:

Andrew Hough of The Advertiser reports South Australia’s Liberals will determine the order of their Senate ticket “within weeks”, with the moderate Anne Ruston tussling with the not-moderate Alex Antic for top place. The third incumbent, David Fawcett, a Senator since 2011 and previously member for Wakefield from 2004 to 2007, will be left to vie for the dubious third position against political staffer and factional conservative Leah Blyth.

• The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports nominations have closed for the Liberal preselection in Gilmore, and that Andrew Constance has again put his name forward, after narrowly failing to win the seat in 2022 and twice being overlooked for Senate vacancies last year. He faces competition from Paul Ell, a moderate-aligned lawyer and Shoalhaven deputy mayor who had long been mentioned as a potential candidate for the seat, having been persuaded to leave the path clear for Constance in 2022.

Hannah Cross of The West Australian reports Sean Ayres, a 26-year-old lawyer and staffer to former member Ben Morton, has emerged as a fourth Liberal preselection contender in the normally conservative Perth seat of Tangney, joining SAS veteran Mark Wales, Canning mayor and former police officer Patrick Hall and IT consultant Harold Ong.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,288 comments on “Monday miscellany: RedBridge poll, Dunkley and teal seat polls, preselection latest (open thread)”

  1. Mexicanbeemersays:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 12:34 am
    Entropy
    Do we know how much lower the ALP primary vote in that seat was compared to normal?. Which will give some idea of the size of the ALP strategic vote for Ryan was on last election day. I suspect it might be greater than 7% though. So strategic voters will tell the pollster they vote ALP but will park their vote with Ryan come election day. As they believe Ryan has a lot better chance of beating the Liberal candidate. if she makes the last two, than the ALP does.
    —————
    Results since 2010

    19
    Lib 49.4
    ALP 16.8
    Grn 21.4

    16
    Lib 58.2
    ALP 19.8
    Grn 18.9

    13
    Lib 55.6
    ALP 22.4
    Grn 16.5

    10
    Lib 52.5
    ALP 27.3
    Grn 18.4

    Frydenberg entered parliament in 10 and labor won a second term but since then the liberal and labor vote has fallen but the greens have been constantly high teens or low teens in 19 . In the polling labor’s support has gone back to its 2019 level and Ryan has taken a big slice of support from the greens and liberals.
    ====================================================

    So that’s 10% higher than Labor got in the 2022 election. When their vote was 6.9%. It hard to tell exactly what a ALP or Green strategic voter will tell a pollster. Though i suspect many will tell them the party they support even if come election day they park that vote with Ryan instead. As such Ryan being down 7% on primaries in that poll is probably quite good for her. The better measure on how Ryan is going would be to look at the Liberal vote in that poll.

    Note: Though even if that 10% has gone back to stay with the ALP. Ryan still has enough to make the 2PP. All that vote will flow back to her in preferences anyway.

  2. C@tmomma says:
    “It looks like the Luke Mcillveen era has started at 9Fax. Tom Switzer has been given a column to attack the Albanese government from.”

    In addition to his weekly shows on ABC Radio National?

    And his day job as head of the Centre for Independent (sic) Studies?

    Aren’t we fortunate that our mainstream media gives a voice to those who would not otherwise be heard? 😉

  3. Entropy: “Note: Though even if that 10% has gone back to stay with the ALP. Ryan still has enough to make the 2PP. All that vote will flow back to her in preferences anyway.”

    Indeed. Subject to the usual caveats about seat-level polls:

    The Australia Institute u-Comms poll has Ryan either maintaining her 2022 election 2PP (on 2022 preference flows), or up a few points (on respondent-allocated preferences).

  4. Guardian Essential poll:
    tax reforms

    (responses in favour, with change from November)

    “providing more benefit to low- and middle-income earners by trimming tax cuts for high-income earners”: 56%

    breakdown:
    30% strongly support
    26% somewhat support
    28% neither support nor oppose
    10% somewhat oppose
    6% strongly oppose

    * * *

    “preventing wealthy families from using family trusts to split their assets to minimise tax”: 50% (-4)

    “allowing people to claim negative gearing tax concessions on one investment property”: 44% (-3) [vs 21% opposed]

    “reduce the capital gains tax discount for assets held longer than a year from 50% to 25%”: 42% [vs 20% opposed]

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/13/guardian-essential-poll-any-changes-to-negative-gearing-get-lukewarm-support

  5. Guardian Essential poll:
    trust

    “create a fair taxation system”
    Labor 31%
    Coalition 29%
    no difference 41%

    “keeping taxes low”
    Labor 29%
    Coalition 27%
    no difference 43%

    “use the money from taxes effectively”
    Labor 27%
    Coalition 31%
    no difference 42%

    (‘no difference’ is the clear winner on all of those questions)

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/13/guardian-essential-poll-any-changes-to-negative-gearing-get-lukewarm-support

  6. Having had the misfortune to discover that the XPT service from Melbourne to Sydney, was cancelled and replaced by buses due to track work in both Victoria & NSW, last year, I was taken on a Magical Mystery Tour of the two states.
    Despite adding an extra 2 hours to the journey it was illuminating.
    1st stop Albury. One of many.
    All of the train stations have had a platform / building makeover and looked fabulous.
    However, it was the shabby, run down towns which really surprised.
    I had read and heard a lot about rural decline and the death of small villages, but the decline was very noticeable in many of the once very prosperous, large towns.
    Empty shops, dilapidated pubs, run down houses (Cootamundra, take an unfortunate bow) – the only thing missing was tumble weed flowing along the streetscape, probably it was the wrong season for this sight.
    And what was worse my team lost by a point, to Collingwood, and missed the Grand Final.

  7. Macca RB,
    Flyover towns? I sense that, going by your analysis, you may have found the source of the continuing strength of the PHON & UAP Senate vote. Just the same cohort of people who comprise Trump’s base of support. The No Way Out cohort, you could call them. The smart business owners have gotten out but the people with no way out, remain.

    Or, they like living there. However, the Hay Plains is a hard place to love. Albury is better, still,I would have thought.

  8. Scott @ 3.26pm
    Dan Teehan as next Opposition Leader.
    He may be battling to save his own seat.
    He has made one of the safest LP seats in Victoria, marginal.
    In 2022, he barely held off a challenge from an under resourced independent candidate.
    His 3.92% margin may also be affected by the Victorian redistribution one way or another.
    By the way if Michael Sukkar dislikes sitting in the House, so much, that he is constantly being ejected why doesn’t he resign?
    Or is this an interesting strategy to be noticed. I suppose for anyone representing the most marginal LP seat in Parliament (0.19%) may believe that any publicity is good publicity.

  9. Macca RB
    Thats the problem the federal liberal party have , even Peter Dutton seat of Dickson is not a safe seat, even though QLD is the strongest state for LNP

    Micheal Sukkar is also in the same bracket as Tehan and Dutton, maybe 1 ,2 or all 3 may be kicked out of their seats at the 2025 federal election

  10. A 70-year-old man could face 10 years in jail for allegedly sending a threatening homophobic letter to Sydney MP Alex Greenwich which invoked the AIDS epidemic and referred to firebrand MP Mark Latham “as a real man”.

    The man allegedly sent the graphic letter to Greenwich on October 4 last year, using a pseudonym. It was concealed in a greeting card.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/man-charged-after-latham-inspired-homophobic-letter-sent-to-sydney-mp-20240212-p5f483.html

    What is wrong with people? And what is wrong with letting people just live their own lives? I bet this old fart has never met Greenwich and their lives have therefore never touched. The old man must be seriously deranged if he goes to those sorts of levels to criticise someone he’s never met.

  11. Services Australia has a backlog of about 1.1 million unprocessed new claims across both health and welfare payments, contributing to Australians waiting months for access to payments such as the age pension. In his first interview in the role, the agency’s chief executive, David Hazlehurst, said he intended to slash the backlog by up to 60 per cent by the middle of this year, helped by 3000 new recruits.

    Services Australia is the agency that manages Centrelink, Medicare and Child Support. Hazlehurst’s target was to have 400,000-500,000 claims on hand at any one time, given Services Australia manually processes about 19.2 million claims every year and new claims are received every day.
    In numbers to be revealed in Senate estimates later this week, Hazlehurst said the backlog included about 775,000 manual Medicare claims and about 360,000 welfare and social security claims.

    The welfare claims are only 17 per cent of the annual manually processed claims, but nearly a third of the backlog, resulting in long waits for pensions, unemployment payments, parental leave pay and other benefits. The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age reported on Monday that new parents were often waiting three months to receive parental leave pay from the government. “With the age pension, we aim to have 80 per cent of those claims done in 49 days and, at the end of December, 72 days was our average, so that’s clearly not where we want it to be,” Hazlehurst said.

    “That feeds through into phone calls. The average time that people are waiting is around 33 minutes over the year to date, particularly in relation to the welfare and social services side of things. We’d like that to be more like 15 to 16 minutes.” Fiona Guthrie, chief executive of Financial Counselling Australia, said the delays for welfare entitlements had huge impacts on people, and it was “demoralising and frustrating”. “Financial counsellors have clients who are at risk of becoming homeless because of lack of income,” Guthrie said. “Parents are struggling to provide for their children and put food on the table three times a day.” Hazlehurst said Services Australia was prioritising disaster relief, managing to answer most calls for flood assistance in South East Queensland within a minute and processing claims quickly as well.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-government-agency-with-a-backlog-of-more-than-one-million-claims-20240209-p5f3s5.html

  12. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 10:44 pm
    It looks like the Luke Mcillveen era has started at 9Fax. Tom Switzer has been given a column to attack the Albanese government from. His first target this week is Jim Chalmers. I’m not going to bother linking it because it’s just a disingenuous load of disinformation garbage.

    Time to cancel my subscription.

    ***********

    Cancelled mine well over a year ago….Independent Always (bull s*@$)

  13. Good pick up Aaron, what else would you expect from that Costello corporation lol.

    I agreed Nath that was the thesis of nemesis. I know you come from a conservative point of view and I just want to say I feel bad for the reasonably minded, intelligent centre right people in this country.

    It’s embarrassing that an all bark, no bite poser like Morrison was able to successfully move geniuses like Turnbull around like chess pieces for his own end and without any pushback or trouble.

    I was never a fan of how the PR-obsessed Rudd plied his trade into lunacy but for me Morrison takes the cake, he is the worst PM I can recall since Malcolm Fraser

  14. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. apologized to his family members after a super PAC backing his independent bid for the White House aired a commercial during the Super Bowl on Sunday night.
    “I’m so sorry if the Super Bowl advertisement caused anyone in my family pain. The ad was created and aired by the American Values Super PAC without any involvement or approval from my campaign. FEC rules prohibit Super PACs from consulting with me or my staff. I love you all. God bless you,” Kennedy wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.
    American Values 2024 ran a 30-second ad during the Super Bowl that heavily relied on imagery from former President John F. Kennedy’s 1960 presidential campaign.

  15. Autocrat that certainly entertains me lol.

    It’s great because you get to see a compulsive liar working on the run, making it up as he goes in freestyle mode, the heavy deployment of the smirk to try and keep even himself from not breaking character during the BS en mass etc

  16. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has asked his attorney-general to fast track the drafting of laws to respond to the doxxing of hundreds of people in the Jewish community, whose names and social media profiles were shared online. The new laws will criminalise the publication of a person’s private details, including their name, address and phone number, with malicious intent.
    The attorney-general has also been tasked with strengthening hate speech laws. “The idea that in Australia, someone should be targeted because of their religion, because of their faith is just completely unacceptable,” Albanese said on 2GB on Monday. The plans follow the publication of names and details of almost 600 Jewish writers, artists and academics by anti-Zionist activists last week as tensions over the war in the Middle East continue to divide Australia.

  17. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Voters have given a tick of approval to the Albanese government’s changes to income tax cuts but are lukewarm on broader tax reform, including negative gearing, writes Paul Karp about the latest Essential poll.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/13/guardian-essential-poll-any-changes-to-negative-gearing-get-lukewarm-support
    Barnaby Joyce’s late-night antics will drag down support for the Coalition among women, Nationals frontbencher Anne Webster has warned, while former party leader Michael McCormack has urged Joyce to open up about his medical condition and seek the help he needs.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-s-position-on-shadow-frontbench-in-question-after-video-20240212-p5f43i.html
    Barnaby Joyce has happily made himself the butt of jokes and replayed it to Nationals faithful as the boy from the bush getting the best of city slickers his entire political career. But there is something sad about his latest pratfall, points out the SMH editorial which says these Joycean antics show parliament needs new stream of consciousness. It says “politicians have a workplace problem that, through arrogance, bloody mindedness or incompetence, they ignore or fob off. They must change.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/joycean-antics-show-parliament-needs-new-stream-of-consciousness-20240212-p5f45j.html
    Barnaby Joyce has long been a national embarrassment and should quit politics without delay, declares Peter van Onselen who says his life of rolling scandal should no longer be tolerated.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/barnaby-joyce-has-long-been-a-national-embarrassment-and-should-quit-politics-without-delay/news-story/a3094b402f2d7057546d4f5cc94820dd?amp=
    A damning internal Home Affairs audit shows Paladin, the contractor paid $532 million to run the Manus Island detention centre, was never properly assessed for its ability to run the centre, and the department failed to consider the corruption and fraud risks of working in Papua New Guinea. Documents tabled in parliament on Monday show that when then-minister Peter Dutton was sent a briefing note about the audit, he simply indicated he had “noted” the report without having a discussion about it with his department.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-consequences-for-bureaucrats-from-home-affairs-probe-20240212-p5f45l.html
    But Home Affairs secretary Stephanie Foster says she will not seek to reprimand individuals in her response to a review into offshore processing contracts, which found the department failed to do its due diligence.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8517844/richardson-review-not-a-scathing-report-stephanie-foster/?cs=14329
    Phil Coorey tells us that Anthony Albanese has shot down demands by the Greens that he pare back negative gearing and capital gains tax deductions in return for supporting a signature housing policy, saying the minor party was being juvenile and there will be no negotiation.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-slaps-down-greens-on-negative-gearing-demands-20240212-p5f43q
    Paul Bongiorno explains why now is not the time Labor will talk tax concessions.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2024/02/13/paul-bongiorno-negative-gearing-labor
    “Chalmers is doing a fantastic job … at ignoring the dire outlook”, complains Tom Switzer.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/chalmers-is-doing-a-fantastic-job-at-ignoring-the-dire-outlook-20240212-p5f46z.html
    Harking back to the old Prices Justification Tribunal, Alan Kohler says, “Name and shame the price gougers. It worked for us once before.”
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/02/12/kohler-shame-price-gougers
    Anthony Albanese has demanded Israel heed the international community’s warnings to minimise civilian casualties in Gaza as new strikes killed dozens of people in the southern city of Rafah on Monday. Matthew Knott says Albanese’s remarks – his strongest criticism yet of Israel since it launched its retaliation against Hamas after the group’s attack on southern Israel in October – came as Israelis celebrated the rescue of two elderly hostages who had been held in captivity in Gaza.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/israel-strikes-rafah-despite-warnings-from-biden-20240212-p5f49o.html
    The Albanese government failed to consult its top productivity adviser over the effect of controversial workplace laws, including the right to disconnect, which businesses from Airtasker to Woodside warn unnecessarily complicate how people work. The AFR says the Productivity Commission’s absence and the lack of a regulatory impact statement about the right to disconnect changes add to fears the laws, including almost 100 amendments, were rushed through parliament.
    https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/no-scrutiny-of-labor-s-workplace-laws-20240212-p5f480
    Kieran Rooney reports that annual taxes from the state pokies sector is expected to fall by millions of dollars as the Allan government implements major reforms to minimise gambling harm.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-to-lose-205-million-in-pokies-revenue-over-next-four-years-20240212-p5f49v.html
    Sarah McPhee reports that eighty potential jurors in the marathon trial of construction boss George Alex and five others accused of pocketing more than $13 million in unpaid taxes have been warned that any research about the case outside court could have “disastrous” consequences, such as occurred in the aborted trial of Bruce Lehrmann.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/jury-given-lehrmann-research-warning-in-marathon-13m-fraud-trial-20240212-p5f44i.html
    Successive governments have been happy to have Australia as the world’s quarry. But now there’s an additional role for us as the world’s CO2 dump. Rex Patrick reveals the secret plans.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/australia-secret-co2-dump-plan/
    There was “no evidence” that two Afghan men allegedly murdered by or at the direction of Ben Roberts-Smith were armed at the time of their death, the barrister acting for the newspapers at the centre of the former elite soldier’s high-stakes defamation appeal has said. Michaela Whitbourn reports from yesterday’s hearing.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/no-evidence-slain-afghan-men-were-armed-roberts-smith-appeal-told-20240212-p5f46b.html
    The first day of a legal throwdown brought by former ACT director of public prosecutions Shane Drumgold SC against the inquiry that ended his career will be heard in the ACT Supreme Court today, in a battle the disgraced prosecutor hopes will reinstate his reputation and possibly catapult him back into his old job.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/shane-drumgold-walter-sofronoff-supreme-court-showdown-begins/news-story/5194a3268f64c24d81c9014776e7a44b?amp=
    Services Australia is grappling with 1.1 million unprocessed health and welfare claims. Its new boss David Hazlehurst wants to halve that by the middle of this year, writes Caitlin Fitzsimmons.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-government-agency-with-a-backlog-of-more-than-one-million-claims-20240209-p5f3s5.html
    According to Alexandra Smith, a 70-year-old man could face 10 years in jail for allegedly sending a threatening homophobic letter to Sydney MP Alex Greenwich which invoked the AIDS epidemic and referred to firebrand MP Mark Latham “as a real man”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/man-charged-after-latham-inspired-homophobic-letter-sent-to-sydney-mp-20240212-p5f483.html
    Chinese export prices have been falling at their fastest clip since the financial crisis, helping to dampen inflationary pressures worldwide, writes Karen Maley who wonders if China can escape its debt deflation trap.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/can-china-escape-its-debt-deflation-trap-20240212-p5f476
    America’s trade wars have turned into a game of whack a mole, and Donald Trump wants to ramp them up if he gets back in office. Its citizens may pay the price, opines Stephen Bartholomeusz who says he could unleash another wave of unacceptably high inflation and a fierce assault on Americans’ living standards.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/donald-trump-s-attack-on-china-might-backfire-20240212-p5f434.html
    Never before has a president of the United States – even a former one aspiring to reclaim the office – suggested he would incite an enemy to attack American allies, writes the New York Times’ Peter Baker.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/donald-trump-s-attack-on-china-might-backfire-20240212-p5f434.html
    And David Cameron has become the most senior member of Britain’s Conservative Government to explicitly criticise Donald Trump’s suggestion that the United States would not protect its NATO allies who fail to spend enough on defence.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/david-cameron-blasts-trump-s-nato-stance-as-not-sensible-20240213-p5f4e3.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/XBxJDq6WLub2UphQ8wEq23/704d9047-faa6-49f8-914e-c8b61420cf3d.png/r0_0_1920_1079_w1200_h678_fmax.webp#image.jpg
    David Rowe
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGHWzwtbkAA6Weu.jpg
    Cathy Wilcox
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.338255033557047%2C$multiply_2.2063%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_66%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/b056bdbc3effb9ec01048d5911c99d36c012c8ab.jpg
    Matt Golding
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.31711409395973156%2C$multiply_3.8519%2C$ratio_1%2C$width_378%2C$x_210%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/df377e0847b63a40de703b3f3672c344dcbf76b2.jpg
    Mark Knight
    https://content.api.news/v3/images/bin/c2ae20f67043450ee13516e33e6dcc20?width=1024#image.jpg
    John Shakespeare
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGG-tNTbUAA9Hkd.jpg
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGG-yhxbwAAmn3O.jpg
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.28571428571428575%2C$multiply_3.8519%2C$ratio_1%2C$width_378%2C$x_0%2C$y_23/t_crop_custom/q_62%2Cf_auto/538bfbcaf76984fc1f90caf113adbe42af4b450b.jpg
    Spooner
    https://content.api.news/v3/images/bin/089a615d08aa3585f93414190d2afae9?width=1024#image.jpg

    From the US

    https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/oeV6Y5VXzqk7un5daTP9Uo-1024-80.jpg
    https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/ETsKBDe3XudDkGw9Cn4Q6F-1024-80.jpg
    https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/YdiG3tbhwyqKdztrdwGFKK-1024-80.jpg
    https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/mGeJ8afTT3ECqxeKUzjyP7-1024-80.jpg
    https://image.cagle.com/282539/750/282539.png
    https://image.cagle.com/282538/750/282538.png
    https://image.cagle.com/282536/750/282536.png
    https://image.cagle.com/282534/750/282534.png
    https://image.cagle.com/282529/750/282529.png
    https://image.cagle.com/282527/750/282527.png
    https://image.cagle.com/282513/750/282513.png

  18. UK Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    Lowest Conservative % since Sunak became PM. Just two points above lowest under Truss.
    11 Feb/Changes +/- 4 Feb :

    Labour 46% (+1)
    Conservative 21% (-3)
    Reform UK 12% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (+2)
    Green 5% (+1)
    SNP 3% (–)
    Other 2% (–)

  19. If its a criminal offense to dox Jews, I expect it will be a criminal offense for Jews to dox others

    “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you” – christian

    “Do not do to others that which you don’t want done to you” – judaism

    BK thanks for your roundup

  20. “Phil Coorey tells us that Anthony Albanese has shot down demands by the Greens that he pare back negative gearing and capital gains tax deductions in return for supporting a signature housing policy, saying the minor party was being juvenile and there will be no negotiation.”
    ________________

    Hmm…. who’s the one that’s really being juvenile …?

  21. billie: The doxing legislation will not be restricted to any one particular religious or other group. It will protect the privacy of everyone.

  22. leftieBrawler says:

    I agreed Nath that was the thesis of nemesis. I know you come from a conservative point of view and I just want to say I feel bad for the reasonably minded, intelligent centre right people in this country.
    ______________________
    I don’t come from a conservative point of view. I don’t have a single point of view on any issue that could be considered conservative anywhere in the multiverse.

  23. The Greens are the ones being juvenile. You don’t demand a major policy change by the political equivalent of stamping your feet and holding your breath until you get your way.

    The best and most sensible thing The Greens should be demanding is a Senate Inquiry into the things that they want changed. Then they should take it up with the Housing Minister and work collaboratively to achieve an outcome. Like adults.

    I also note that Max didn’t retail the statistics for the number of Greens’ MPs who own multiple NG properties. Disingenuous, to say the least, if that’s his real bugbear.

  24. nath relishes a bit of controversy, but conservative he is not. Or, only insofar as he seems to have conservative opinions around money and capital formation.

  25. Nemesis:

    Episode 1: Tony Abbott is a terrible person
    Episode 2: Malcolm Turnbull wasn’t that terrible but he was surrounded by terrible people and couldn’t get much done.
    Episode 3: haven’t seen yet, but yes, Scott Morrison is a terrible person.

  26. “the great dividing range” is a great name for the inevitable republic that “Australia” will become.
    The inordinate “great divide” distinction on display, whether it be through wealth, taxation, housing, transport, education, wages, income, nutrition, travel, race, health, communication and opportunity has become so stark that once well regarded referencing to a “fair dinkum” Australia has long gone.

    “Nemesis”, so appropriately released to display not just the political divide between political parties, but the disintegration within political parties.

    The totally unfulfilled Morrison, about to leave Parliament, having so wilfully abused its purpose, now embarking on another quest, just as equally a mission, so ill suited to a charlatan, propped up by “faith”.

    The “child like” Abbott chasing the “great statesman” folklore of another time.

    And a question for Turnbull, to make a difference perhaps ? Fruitless!

    Considering the deception, deceit and disingenuous duplicity beginning with the “shyster” Howard and maintained by a production line of “FUBARs” dumping “crock” on the laps of the expectant “haves” while denying an ever increasing group of “have nots” a possibility, where and how do they expect this ad hoc mixture of duplicity to end.

    The families in caravans, the homeless in parks, the two hours to work”, the insecurity of work, the hunger and the dumping of the “aged” in receptacles do tell a story.

    Albanese and Labor are still in front, not because of their mastery of the “art of the impossible” but rather that enough voters identify with glimmer of hope, some trustworthiness and a lotteries chance of sorting through the quagmire of self centred greed and corruption that is the first twenty years of the 21st century in the lucky country.

    Australia has become a flotilla of trophy castles in a sea of “lean to” leftovers.

  27. A shocker … no longer content with just being a domestic climate vandal, we want to become an international one …

    https://michaelwest.com.au/australia-secret-co2-dump-plan/

    One of the projects Japan is relying on for its energy security is Santos’ Barossa LNG project. In June last year the AFR reported Japan had formally requested our government exclude the project from the safeguard mechanism.

    Instead, our Government asked the Parliament to make changes to the Environment Protection (Sea Dumping) Act 1981. The explanatory memorandum to the amendment Bill stated the purpose of the amendments was to “implement Australia’s international obligations under the 1996 Protocol to the Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter 1972 (the London Protocol)”

    But the Bill’s real purpose, at least in part, (as revealed in briefs to ministers obtained under FOI), was to give comfort to Santos and Japan that CO2 from the Barossa project could be piped across the Australian-Timor Leste border for depositing in the depleted Bayu-Undan gas field using carbon capture and storage (CCS).

    And that leads us to the real ambitions of the Albanese Government.

    Whilst amending the Sea Dumping Bill would allow the Barossa project to continue, to the great relief of Japan, it also paves the way for CCS 2050 – Albanese’s plan to make Australia the abatement go-to place for the world.

    A briefing provided to Minister Bowen stated:

    “Over the last 12 months, there has been [a] significant rise in interest from Australian industry and companies (for example, APPEA, Santos, deepC Store and Denison Gas) as well as regional partners with limited CO2 storage potential, such as Singapore, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (ROK), seeking to establish a pathway for Australia to become a regional location for CO2 geological storage.

    “Prospective estimates indicate Australia might have a storage capacity of over 20 billion tonnes (DISER, 2021) in at least four strategic sedimentary basins to safely sequester CO2 permanently underground (both on and offshore).”

    Albanese is breaching his climate change commitments to the electorate and short-changing Australia’s future in more ways than one.

    There’s more – and worse – in the article. Such as the plan to use the Great Artesian Basin as a C02 dump, which could have unimaginable consequences for about one third of Australia, and potentially ruin huge swathes of prime agricultural land.

    FFS Wake up, Australia 🙁

  28. Well you’ve done a good job these past years in fooling me Nath!

    C@t- would you place Nat ‘firmly within the middle of the bell curve’ for political leanings ?

  29. “Episode 1: Tony Abbott is a terrible person
    Episode 2: Malcolm Turnbull wasn’t that terrible but he was surrounded by terrible people and couldn’t get much done.
    Episode 3: haven’t seen yet, but yes, Scott Morrison is a terrible person.”

    What about Dutton then? And where do they rank on the relative scales of terribleness re: Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison/Trump? A cane toad and a nuclear bomb are both terrible things but of different degrees.

  30. goll: good points all round!

    Prompted an idea: The Great Dividing Rage” can be applied to so many people now. Think Trumpists, Jews, Palestinians, “Vote No”, Putin – and so on, for ever and ever!

  31. Well who would have ‘thunk it’

    Taylor Swift releases more tickets for Melbourne and Sydney shows but with ‘restricted’ viewing.

    https://www.theage.com.au/culture/music/taylor-swift-releases-more-tickets-for-melbourne-and-sydney-shows-20240213-p5f4fd.html

    Of course this was all part of the ‘master plan’ to quote Dad’s Army (or was it The Goon Show?)

    Nevertheless it will be interesting to see if the attendance at the MCG over this coming weekend (Friday, Saturday and Sunday) equals or exceeds crowds for AFL grand finals, test cricket or Billy Graham crusades in the late 60s and early 70s.

    Given Metro Trains are providing additional services at five to ten minute frequencies over most lines from 2300 on each night I think the answer might be some records could be broken.

    Meanwhile at Melbourne University there is a three day ‘Swiftposium’ with 400 papers being presented.

    The world is a strange place.

  32. Been a long time since a state government wants to get out of office faster than the current tas gov.Parliament does not sit again until early March ,the two independents are saying this morning they do not want a early election.
    But the tas premier is meeting today with his colleagues on going to an early election.

    Weird.

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