RedBridge Group has conducted its first federal poll for the year, and the movement it records since its last poll in early December is in favour of the Coalition, who are up three points on the primary vote to 38%. Labor and the Greens are steady at 33% and 13% with others down three to 16%, and Labor records a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, in from 52.8-47.2. A question on negative gearing finds an even split of 39% each for and against the status quo, with the latter composed of 16% who favour removing it from new rental properties in future and 23% for removing it altogether. Further detail is forthcoming, including on field work dates and sample size.
Progressive think tank the Australia Institute has published a number of federal seat-level automated phone polls conducted by uComms, most notably for Dunkley, whose by-election is now less than three weeks away. The result is a 52-48 lead to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 56.3-43.7 split in favour of Labor in 2022. After distributing a forced response follow-up question for the unusually large 17% undecided component, the primary votes are Labor 40.1% (40.2% at the election), Liberal 39.3% (32.5%), Greens 8.2% (10.3%) and others 12.4% (16.9%). A question on the tax cut changes finds 66.3% in favour and 28.1% opposed, although the question offered a bit too much explanatory detail for my tastes. The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 626.
The other polls are from the teal independent seats of Kooyong, Mackellar and Wentworth, conducted last Monday from samples of 602 to 647. They show the incumbents leading in each case despite losing primary vote share to Labor, together with strong support for the tax cut changes. In Kooyong, distributing results from a forced response follow-up for the 9.7% undecided produces primary vote shares of 33.5% for Monique Ryan (the only candidate mentioned by name, down from 40.3% in 2022), 39.5% for the Liberals (42.7%), 15.7% for Labor (6.9%) and 7.5% for the Greens (6.3%). Ryan is credited with a 56-44 lead on two-candidate preferred, but preference flows from 2022 would make it more like 53.5-46.5.
In Mackellar, distribution of the 10.8% initially undecided gets incumbent Sophie Scamps to 32.2% of the primary vote (38.1%), with 39.3% for Liberal (41.4%), 14.8% for Labor (8.2%) and 6.6% for the Greens (6.1%). This comes out at 54-46 after preferences (52.5-47.5 in 2022), but I make is 52.7-47.3 using the flows from 2022. In Wentworth, Allegra Spender gets the best result out of the three, with distribution of 6.3% undecided putting her primary vote at 35.1% (35.8% in 2022), with Liberal on 39.0% (40.5%), Labor on 15.3% (10.9%) and Greens on 10.4% (8.3%). The reported two-candidate preferred is 57-43, but the preference flow in this case is weaker than it was when she won by 54.2-45.8 in 2022, the result being 59.2-40.8 based on preference flows at the election.
Federal preselection news:
• Andrew Hough of The Advertiser reports South Australia’s Liberals will determine the order of their Senate ticket “within weeks”, with the moderate Anne Ruston tussling with the not-moderate Alex Antic for top place. The third incumbent, David Fawcett, a Senator since 2011 and previously member for Wakefield from 2004 to 2007, will be left to vie for the dubious third position against political staffer and factional conservative Leah Blyth.
• The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports nominations have closed for the Liberal preselection in Gilmore, and that Andrew Constance has again put his name forward, after narrowly failing to win the seat in 2022 and twice being overlooked for Senate vacancies last year. He faces competition from Paul Ell, a moderate-aligned lawyer and Shoalhaven deputy mayor who had long been mentioned as a potential candidate for the seat, having been persuaded to leave the path clear for Constance in 2022.
• Hannah Cross of The West Australian reports Sean Ayres, a 26-year-old lawyer and staffer to former member Ben Morton, has emerged as a fourth Liberal preselection contender in the normally conservative Perth seat of Tangney, joining SAS veteran Mark Wales, Canning mayor and former police officer Patrick Hall and IT consultant Harold Ong.
FUBAR says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:29 pm
Kirsdarke says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:21 pm
@FUBAR
“You do seem to have a bit of contempt for Indigenous people, often bringing up their cultural practices out of nowhere in the context of mockery of them.”
I’m an atheist. All religions are up for mockery.
————————————————————————-
Mocking people for their beliefs is not funny and you just come across as an arsehole.
Boerwar says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 10:02 pm
“this is most likely to be one of the drivers keeping the Coalition out of government at the next election.”
I doubt it. The fact that Australia generally gives a new government a second term is the most likely reason.
Andrew_Earlwood at 9.35 pm and Mexicanbeemer at 9.41 pm
“A side issue is that the Liberal support appears to have gone up. I suspect that some disaffected Liberal voters who parked their vote with ON or Palmer are coming back home. That doesn’t appear to actually move the needle back to the Libs though.”
So far the second sentence is hearsay at best. Wait for the Dunkley by-election and that will be clearer, one way or the other. Meanwhile, we are talking only about a seat poll with a low bow (626 responses) in Kooyong and the other Teal seats.
It was a missed opportunity that M. Willacy did not ask Frydenberg about the historical significance of his loss. The whole programme was quite narrowly personalised, so that there were no real revelations.
Alpha Zero says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 10:07 pm
Good one, Champ.
FUBAR says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:11 pm
nathsays:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:04 pm
“Fubar, you obviously consider yourself a feminist?”
Anyone – what evidence do you have that I am a sexist or a misogynist?
______________________
Well it was not I who called you a misogynist. I just point out that if you aren’t, then you are clearly a feminist, and congrats on that.
Who blew up Nordstream?
(Via the Australian born Russian interpreter)
https://www.reddit.com/r/straya/s/YbJxL8MxII
“I’m an atheist. All religions are up for mockery.”
Excellent.
Now do Judaism.
Ross Cameron
Barnaby Joyce
Alan Tudge
But no politician will ever outdo, Christian Porter.
Why was the Amish girl excommunicated?
Too mennonite
Ah Ross Cameron. The only conservative I ever liked. God he was fun. Remember his campaign against modern art in Parliament House.
And running a prayer group while operating as a notorious pantsman.
Dude had serious comedy chops.
FUBAR should do himself a favour and watch the ‘Mystery Road Origins’ show, as I have been. He might just gain some real insight into Indigenous peoples’ lives and beliefs and then maybe he wouldn’t be such a demonstrable arsehat about them.
WB et all,
Per Redbridge.
Fieldwork date 30-Jan to 7-Feb.
Page 3 of report states 2040 polled, however it appears they reduced it to an effective sample of 1672. Let you work out what’s the correct figure.
Link: https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/RedBridge-Federal-vote-intention-and-public-opinion-Feb-2024.pdf
Tzadiksays:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 7:58 pm
Would you accept a police officer wantonly firing at civilians in the hopes of clipping a criminal hiding behind them?
If the criminal is a rapist and a murderer, then I don’t think it would be fair to blame the police in such a situation. The criminal could just surrender and then nobody would be hurt.
================================================
What sort of idiot are you. No respectable Police force in the world would mow down a whole lot of civilians just to kill a murderer or rapist in the crowd. This is sort of thing Communist China might do. As they proved in Tiananmen Square. To suggest it would be alright for a police force say in Australia to do is ridiculous. To suggest that the criminal would instead surrender is just naive and wishful thinking. If they are a nasty criminal like you suggested why would they have the morality to do right thing in this situation?. Why would the polices action be excused too because the criminal had no morality?.
Note: Though in state like Texas were they have open carry laws. So half the crowd may have a gun and some one starts shooting. I’m not sure how the the police deal with that. I’m actually surprised that a mass shooting were everyone draws their gun and starts shooting everyone else who has drawn their gun. Due to one initial shooter hasn’t yet occurred in that state or other states with similar open carry laws.
Oh,I left out John Howard. 😉
Red Bridge Poll:
Labor 33, Green 13: no change.
Coalition 38: +3
Someone else 16: -3.
My calculation of 2PP is Labor 33 + (5/6)*13 + (1/2)*16 ~> 52.
If the sample size is about 2,000 then margin of error is about 2%, if 1,000 about 3%.
On the face of it, 3% of voters switched from independents and minor parties to the Coalition. Who are they? Disaffected Teals? They would like the Dutton Liberals even less than the Morrison version. Hansonists and Palmists returning to the Coalition fold? They probably thought the Morrison Liberals were too left wing. They would have little impact on the 2PP. Or maybe just statistical noise?
Why was the Amish girl excommunicated?
Too mennonite
——————————
My mind immediately went to images of Kelly Mcgillis in witness. She made quite a splendid impression.
@Steve777
I think it is probably Hansonists and Palmists returning to the Coalition fold, given the result of the referendum last year. That would be a big tick for them in their culture wars.
”Oh,I left out John Howard.”
Sadly, we can’t…
Rainman from earlier. Yes, the players behaved like pork chops. Needed a cool and wise head to just say ‘well, we are appealing now’. But this team is a mixed bag lacking in cool wisdom flavour.
Two men a night. If anyone didn’t get it.
It looks like the Luke Mcillveen era has started at 9Fax. Tom Switzer has been given a column to attack the Albanese government from. His first target this week is Jim Chalmers. I’m not going to bother linking it because it’s just a disingenuous load of disinformation garbage.
Time to cancel my subscription.
FUBARsays:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 4:08 pm
The investment decision should not be made because of the availability of tax concessions. It should be based on the analysis of the investment and how it meets the investor’s needs. Unfortunately, it doesn’t matter how many times it happens – it will happen again – where investors make investments based on the tax outcome and not the investment. Most recent examples being the Sandal Wood and Tree Farms that have all collapsed.
=======================================================
I must say your argument for getting rid of NG is a compelling one. I’m little surprise you would argue against NG but i got that wrong too.
As you argue no good investor is making investment decision based on a tax concessions. Which pretty much leaves the argument for NG dead in the water. As the only real justification for NG was to encourage investment in a certain area. Which as you rightfully point out is not doing that. As investors are not deciding where to invest due to this tax concession, but instead are doing so because they believe it a good investment. So the Australian Government is foregoing revenue for nothing and should just scrap NG all together. As it doesn’t achieve what it is suppose to achieve at all.
The Clan still has the WA Libs firmly under control. The West tells us that the front runner to replace Reynolds is a former Church Pastor.
Long may the right wing religious loons control the Liberal Party, thereby keeping them in opposition for ever.
Steve777
Gut feeling it’s the UAP vote returning to mother. I think UAP is finished. ONP, on the other hand, is holding up (referring to Bludgertrack, not today’s Morgan). They’re a slightly different co-hort. Someone might post and explain the difference between these two groups, but they’re different.
Per the polls out last week for Mackellar/Kooyong etc from U-Comms, it looks like the Teal vote is moving to Labor, not LNP. I thought maybe there might be some disaffected Teals returning to the Libs, but that hasn’t played out in the above three polls. And sorry, someone posted earlier that a sample of 600 voters is rubbish. It’s not, out of an electorate of 115000 people. We have national polls which poll only 1200 out of a population of 26 million, so no a 600 sample is a solid figure.
Interesting what’s going on, can’t put my finger on it, but at a guess voters are taking sides and polarising somewhat. Perhaps the electorate can smell an election coming up later this year. I think it’s on the cards, although I’m only one of 3 or 4 posters who is saying this at the moment. We’ll see. ALP figures are not flash at the moment, but if they improve by Nov/Dec – an election has to be on the cards. I’d go for it.
* With UAP – I think their constituency has had enough of Palmer etc. Dutton has made a play for them and has lapped up their vote. That’s got the LNP to around 36-37 % consistently.
* With Teal voters – Strategic vote by ALP/Green voters in 2022, but I think you’ll find those voters are returning to mum too. If you were an ALP voter, what would you prefer – a “Teal” or the real deal. The “nasty job” was done in 2022, now its time to return to the grown ups.
* Essential Poll tomorrow, and then that’s it for a while.
* Could be a Freshwater, but I doubt it.
* Resolve Poll is overdue – Quite narked. I think you and most of the posters here have a lowish regard for Resolve, so maybe I shouldn’t get fussed about this. We’ll see when (if) it turns up.
Ross Cameron’s father, Jim, was an even greater hypocrite.
He was the only member of the NSW LA to oppose the otgan transplantation bill.
But 5 years later Lord Jesus told him that his work was not finished and he should have the heart transplant after all.
TK
My thoughts turned to Lili Simmons in Banshee, a very naughty Amish girl indeed.
OC watches Banshee. Mind blown.
nathsays:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 10:41 pm
Two men a night. If anyone didn’t get it.
====================================================
We are doing religious jokes, here is one i once heard.
A drunken homeless man is sleeping in the yard of a Methodist church on a Sunday morning. It is an extremely cold morning so he goes into the church. Where the congregation is listening to the Ministers sermon on the evils of drink. As the drunk watches the minister brings out a glass of whiskey and dangles a live worm over it. The Minister tells the congregation look what happens when i drop this worm into the whiskey. He drops it in, it wriggles for a short period and then goes dead still. The Minister then asks his congregation what does this tell you?. Nobody seems to want to answer. So the drunk gets up and in a drunken slur says ” if you drink whiskey you want get worms”.
Following on from the 7:30 report buggery of poor old Dutton by Ferguson in a pathetic game, set match rolling of the leader of the opposition one has to wonder what the actual fucking point of the federal Opposition is and what (if anything) they stand for.
Now we hear that the failed probing skirmishes of negative gearing fears by Angus Taylor et al to try and replace the S3 narrative have failed the coalition is now trying to elevate ‘utes’ as it’s hail mary leading into the next election.
Jesus Christ, what shallow, pitiful and pathetic times lay ahead for Dutton and the LNP. They have fucking nothing.
Although tonight’s “Nemesis” was dominated by the ever-smirking Morrison, the series overall was excellent viewing. Well done Aunty.
Second one:
A woman goes to see what goes on in a Pentecostal church. When she gets there she observes a pastor delivering a “happy clapper” type sermon. In the middle of the sermon the pastor says “stand up all of you who are born again Pentecostals”. So everyone stands up except the woman. The pastor turns to her and says “why aren’t you standing”. To which she replies “I’m Presbyterian”. The preacher asks “why are you Presbyterian”. To which the woman replies “my parents were Presbyterian and their parents before them were to and so i’m Presbyterian”. The preacher then asks “what if your parents were idiots”. The woman thinks about this for awhile then says ” i guess i would be Pentecostal”.
Re Entropy @11:19. An oldie but a goodie.
For those who saw it, anything new in tonight’s Nemesis? Any new revelations on Morrison and AUKUS, Brittany Higgins’ alleged coverup, vaccine orders or secret ministries?
Mexican Beemer:
“Ryan’s poll numbers looked poor.”
Please explain?
————–
Ryan’s primary down 7% to low 30s.”
If Ryan’s numbers are so bad, why did Josh cut and run from his once safe seat? Ryan looks pretty safe.
Tonight concluded the 3 part series ‘Scott Morrison is a terrible person’.
do you not agree with that assertion Nath??
Socrates,
Don’t let the truth get in the way of a good story mate!
Socratessays:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 11:45 pm
Mexican Beemer:
“Ryan’s poll numbers looked poor.”
Please explain?
————–
Ryan’s primary down 7% to low 30s.”
If Ryan’s numbers are so bad, why did Josh cut and run from his once safe seat? Ryan looks pretty safe.
====================================================
Do we know how much lower the ALP primary vote in that seat was compared to normal?. Which will give some idea of the size of the ALP strategic vote for Ryan was on last election day. I suspect it might be greater than 7% though. So strategic voters will tell the pollster they vote ALP but will park their vote with Ryan come election day. As they believe Ryan has a lot better chance of beating the LNP candidate. if she makes the last two, than the ALP does.
Morrison lies to bitter end.
Says he’s made up with Frydenberg over being the secret treasurer.
Frydenberg’s answer would suggest not.
Morrison lies to bitter end.
Says he’s made up with Frydenberg over being the secret treasurer.
Frydenberg’s answer would suggest not.
leftieBrawler says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 11:47 pm
do you not agree with that assertion Nath??
_____________
I have a lot of sympathy with that assertion. But that was the programs’ thesis wasn’t it?
Rossmcgsays:
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 12:00 am
Morrison lies to bitter end.
Says he’s made up with Frydenberg over being the secret treasurer.
Frydenberg’s answer would suggest not.
=========================================
A good point, even on the third telling. It was same with Turnbull last week. Morrison telling us how much Turnbull and him got on. Turnbull telling us he thought Morrison was a snake in the grass. Morrison can’t help lying. He even may lie to himself at times.
Rossmcg
“Morrison lies to bitter end.
Says he’s made up with Frydenberg over being the secret treasurer.
Frydenberg’s answer would suggest not.”
Its not even a clever lie. So easily dis-proven. Morrison lies whenever he gets a difficult question.
When he gets caught out he moves onto another lie. Shameless.
I think the Senate candidate for the Libs’ church is in Ian Goodenough’s electorate of Moore.
The West Australian article online has a nice photo of her with ZRFK.
I would have some respect for Morrison if he had just admitted that he had played his colleagues off against each other, split them down the middle and with a ‘faction’ of only 7 or so, had taken over the party with more skill and success than Littlefinger.
I note for Kooyong at last election. The ALP primary vote was down 10.6% and Greens down 14.8% from the previous 2019 election. So some of this would have been strategic voting for Ryan by both ALP and Greens voters. Note in 2019 the Greens ran Julian Burnside and he made the 2PP against Josh not the ALP candidate. Burnside lost the 2PP by 5.7%. I suspect in 2019 some strategic voting by ALP voters for Burnside may have occurred too. As it was believed he had a better chance of winning too.
”
nathsays:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 11:45 pm
Tonight concluded the 3 part series ‘Scott Morrison is a terrible person’.
”
nathsays:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 11:45 pm
Tonight concluded the 3 part series ‘Scott Morrison is a “horrible, horrible man”. 🙂
Fascinating election result in Pakistan.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68271462
Entropy
Do we know how much lower the ALP primary vote in that seat was compared to normal?. Which will give some idea of the size of the ALP strategic vote for Ryan was on last election day. I suspect it might be greater than 7% though. So strategic voters will tell the pollster they vote ALP but will park their vote with Ryan come election day. As they believe Ryan has a lot better chance of beating the LNP candidate. if she makes the last two, than the ALP does.
—————
Results since 2010
19
Lib 49.4
ALP 16.8
Grn 21.4
16
Lib 58.2
ALP 19.8
Grn 18.9
13
Lib 55.6
ALP 22.4
Grn 16.5
10
Lib 52.5
ALP 27.3
Grn 18.4
Frydenberg entered parliament in 10 and labor won a second term but since then the liberal and labor vote has fallen but the greens have been constantly high teens or low teens in 19 . In the polling labor’s support has gone back to its 2019 level and Ryan has taken a big slice of support from the greens and liberals.
Socratess
Ryan’s primary down 7% to low 30s.”
If Ryan’s numbers are so bad, why did Josh cut and run from his once safe seat? Ryan looks pretty safe.
——————
Josh landed at Goldman Sachs and is enjoying the perks of working in Melbourne close to family and friends but if he was guaranteed reelection and the freedom to run the show he might have been tempted back into politics.