RedBridge Group has conducted its first federal poll for the year, and the movement it records since its last poll in early December is in favour of the Coalition, who are up three points on the primary vote to 38%. Labor and the Greens are steady at 33% and 13% with others down three to 16%, and Labor records a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, in from 52.8-47.2. A question on negative gearing finds an even split of 39% each for and against the status quo, with the latter composed of 16% who favour removing it from new rental properties in future and 23% for removing it altogether. Further detail is forthcoming, including on field work dates and sample size.
Progressive think tank the Australia Institute has published a number of federal seat-level automated phone polls conducted by uComms, most notably for Dunkley, whose by-election is now less than three weeks away. The result is a 52-48 lead to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 56.3-43.7 split in favour of Labor in 2022. After distributing a forced response follow-up question for the unusually large 17% undecided component, the primary votes are Labor 40.1% (40.2% at the election), Liberal 39.3% (32.5%), Greens 8.2% (10.3%) and others 12.4% (16.9%). A question on the tax cut changes finds 66.3% in favour and 28.1% opposed, although the question offered a bit too much explanatory detail for my tastes. The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 626.
The other polls are from the teal independent seats of Kooyong, Mackellar and Wentworth, conducted last Monday from samples of 602 to 647. They show the incumbents leading in each case despite losing primary vote share to Labor, together with strong support for the tax cut changes. In Kooyong, distributing results from a forced response follow-up for the 9.7% undecided produces primary vote shares of 33.5% for Monique Ryan (the only candidate mentioned by name, down from 40.3% in 2022), 39.5% for the Liberals (42.7%), 15.7% for Labor (6.9%) and 7.5% for the Greens (6.3%). Ryan is credited with a 56-44 lead on two-candidate preferred, but preference flows from 2022 would make it more like 53.5-46.5.
In Mackellar, distribution of the 10.8% initially undecided gets incumbent Sophie Scamps to 32.2% of the primary vote (38.1%), with 39.3% for Liberal (41.4%), 14.8% for Labor (8.2%) and 6.6% for the Greens (6.1%). This comes out at 54-46 after preferences (52.5-47.5 in 2022), but I make is 52.7-47.3 using the flows from 2022. In Wentworth, Allegra Spender gets the best result out of the three, with distribution of 6.3% undecided putting her primary vote at 35.1% (35.8% in 2022), with Liberal on 39.0% (40.5%), Labor on 15.3% (10.9%) and Greens on 10.4% (8.3%). The reported two-candidate preferred is 57-43, but the preference flow in this case is weaker than it was when she won by 54.2-45.8 in 2022, the result being 59.2-40.8 based on preference flows at the election.
Federal preselection news:
• Andrew Hough of The Advertiser reports South Australia’s Liberals will determine the order of their Senate ticket “within weeks”, with the moderate Anne Ruston tussling with the not-moderate Alex Antic for top place. The third incumbent, David Fawcett, a Senator since 2011 and previously member for Wakefield from 2004 to 2007, will be left to vie for the dubious third position against political staffer and factional conservative Leah Blyth.
• The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports nominations have closed for the Liberal preselection in Gilmore, and that Andrew Constance has again put his name forward, after narrowly failing to win the seat in 2022 and twice being overlooked for Senate vacancies last year. He faces competition from Paul Ell, a moderate-aligned lawyer and Shoalhaven deputy mayor who had long been mentioned as a potential candidate for the seat, having been persuaded to leave the path clear for Constance in 2022.
• Hannah Cross of The West Australian reports Sean Ayres, a 26-year-old lawyer and staffer to former member Ben Morton, has emerged as a fourth Liberal preselection contender in the normally conservative Perth seat of Tangney, joining SAS veteran Mark Wales, Canning mayor and former police officer Patrick Hall and IT consultant Harold Ong.
Boerwar @ #666 Tuesday, February 13th, 2024 – 10:04 am
Doubt, deflect, distract, delay, deny … your schtick never changes, does it?
Entropy
Certainly in the case i posted above @10:51pm an ultra far right Jewish person with access to large amount of funds
_______________________________________________
Why did it matter that they were Jewish (assuming you are correct anyway)? Was this an Australian political matter or something related to Judaism or Israel?
The problem is the insidiousness of antisemitism. Implicit in your comment is that there is something particularly aggravating about the person being Jewish, even though Jewish people in Australia support all parts of the political spectrum.
It is on a par with talking about tentacles and all of it plays into the underlying but unspoken (in polite circles) belief that Jewish people take part in what happens in this country beyond their right to do so.
leftieBrawler says:
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 11:20 am
Don’t know and don’t really care. The development of our resources sector has provided us with one of the highest living standards in the world. Good luck with trying to destroy the goose laying the golden and other colour eggs.
Enjoy your eggs while ye may.
Catching up with the reporting of Nemesis last night, there is a lot said about AUKUS and Morrison’s lies, but still a lot of questions unasked.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-13/morrison-macron-submarines-deal-nemesis/103410862
Obviously Morrison lied, but not only to Macron. Did he lie to the Australian people? (Yes) The Opposition (Yes) and Joe Biden, whom he had promised to keep Macron and the Opposition informed? (Yes).
Now that Marles is coming to grips with the financial challenges in AUKUS, I hope he reconsiders it.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-doubles-down-on-army-choppers-despite-warnings-they-are-obsolete-20240212-p5f4ai.html
“Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said: “Ukraine has shown that crewed helicopters are just not usable in many respects in a modern battlefield scenario.
“But he added that it would be “political suicide” for the government to cancel the Apache program given it was already under fire for failing to invest in defence.
________
Come On! Do better!!!
Have the courage to cancel the Apache program. The set of reasons for a midlife switch from the Tiger to the Apache have now largely evaporated (ie. plugging into the HUUUGE US Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft helicopter program, thus providing our apaches with an upgrade pathway that the Tiger could not compete with given its small customer-user base, and the ability to buy replacement airframes as needs be from an operational production line).
I’m not saying we should cancel our reconnaissance-attack helicopter capability altogether simply based on the reports out of the Ukrainian war: even if attack helicopters are not as capable as they once were, they probably still have a role. No, what Australia should do is simply commit to seeing the Tigers continue in service until the 2030s, with upgrades (which have been deliberately stalled because ‘the Apaches are coming’) being now prioritised.
Unfortunately it seems as if the Perfumed Warlord can only fight against Fort Fumble intransigence and sheer bloody-minded incompetence on one front at a time.
Certainly some resource extraction is not economical. Consider the rehabilitation costs on the Ranger mine, which exceeds its profits. The Australian gas exporting industry has seen lots of money invested here but has been rather marginal in relation to the profits seen by investors.
No matter what personally you think about Shorten
He was politically effective as an opposition leader and unlucky , too many Australian votes fell gullible to the propaganda against Labor/Shorten
@Scott
Bill Shorten played his cards right with Tony Abbott as Prime Minster when opposition leader. Abbott once claimed in article after his Prime Minstership ended the opposition was ‘hysterical’. It was actually the opposite while Shorten did oppose Abbott’s controversial 2014 budget. Shorten generally stayed out of the crossfire and let Abbott hang himself. Malcolm Turnbull also confirmed this with his own strategy on Nemesis. Turnbull backers advised him to be patient and Abbott would eventually fall over.
The problem came when Turnbull took over as Prime Minster. Shorten was never going to beat Turnbull on a personality contest. And he had to start taking some risks in releasing policies. He had to put some meat on the bones. Backlash to Turnbull calling an early election and Labor’s effective campaign on the Liberals setting up taskforce to priviatise the Medicare pay system. Brought the Turnbull close to minority government.
But Shorten releasing policies and not playing small target. Also could be vulnerable against a Prime Minster who knew how to attack them. This is what Labor found in Scott Morrison who’s specialty as a Liberal front bencher was the role of attack dog . The last opposition leader who released polices well before the election was John Hewson. And sure enough history would repeat itself and Shorten would lose the 2019 federal election.
FUBAR, ease up it’s only AM on a Tuesday.
For anyone interested. You could argue that the LNG boom has been good for anyone working in the industry and for the Australian economy generally, but it certainly hasn’t been a brilliant investment.
https://www.accr.org.au/research/australias-lng-growth-wave-did-it-wash-for-shareholders/
Shown on Fox News.
BK @ #711 Tuesday, February 13th, 2024 – 11:45 am
I’d have added Netanyahu as #2, but other than that it seems about right.
TPOFsays:
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 11:25 am
Entropy
Certainly in the case i posted above @10:51pm an ultra far right Jewish person with access to large amount of funds
_____________________
Why did it matter that they were Jewish (assuming you are correct anyway)? Was this an Australian political matter or something related to Judaism or Israel?
The problem is the insidiousness of antisemitism. Implicit in your comment is that there is something particularly aggravating about the person being Jewish, even though Jewish people in Australia support all parts of the political spectrum.
It is on a par with talking about tentacles and all of it plays into the underlying but unspoken (in polite circles) belief that Jewish people take part in what happens in this country beyond their right to do so.
==================================================
Because currently the media is selling the anti-doxing laws to be brought in. As a response to protect jews that were doxed. So why is it alright to report when it is Jews getting doxed and not to report it when it is a jew doing the doxing?. Doing so would amount to religious discrimination. Where one group can only be described as victim of doxing never the perpetrator. In fact i haven’t heard a news report on the new proposed doxing laws that doesn’t use the word “jewish” today.
The person involved is certainly Jewish though. With strong connections to the IDF. If you are worried i just made it up without evidence though.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avi_Yemini
Note: Papers are happy to report when people of African appearance commit a crime too.
Moratorium P1- I’d hate to see you be forced to use up some PB long service leave
leftieBrawler @ #714 Tuesday, February 13th, 2024 – 11:52 am
My post was not about the subject under Moratorium. However, happy to let William rule on that one.
Entropy says:
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 11:51 am
TPOFsays:
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 11:25 am
Entropy
Certainly in the case i posted above @10:51pm an ultra far right Jewish person with access to large amount of funds
_____________________
Why did it matter that they were Jewish (assuming you are correct anyway)? Was this an Australian political matter or something related to Judaism or Israel?
The problem is the insidiousness of antisemitism. Implicit in your comment is that there is something particularly aggravating about the person being Jewish, even though Jewish people in Australia support all parts of the political spectrum.
It is on a par with talking about tentacles and all of it plays into the underlying but unspoken (in polite circles) belief that Jewish people take part in what happens in this country beyond their right to do so.
==================================================
Because currently the media is selling the anti-doxing laws to be brought in. As a response to protect jews that were doxed. So why is it alright to report when it is Jews getting doxed and not to report it when it is a jew doing the doxing?. Doing so would amount to religious discrimination. Where one group can only be described as victim of doxing never the perpetrator.
The person involved is certainly Jewish though. If you are worried i just made it up without evidence though.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avi_Yemini
Note: Papers are happy to report when people of African appearance commit a crime too.
__________
They are different. One party is being doxed based on their religious/ethnic status. The other did not undertake an aborted defamation action because of their religious ethnic status. Or are you saying otherwise? Hopefully not. Actually you may not need to answer the question if it gets William Bowe in a spot of bother.
As for your “Note”, the media does it isn’t a high integrity threshold.
c@t: “…there’s been some interesting conversations about Universal Basic Income and its intersectionality with the AI revolution coming headlong down the pike,recently. The main question being,what do you do as a society with all the people who will be thrown out of work by AI? And it includes a lot of creative people as well as those doing mundane work. It’s no solution to just put them in their homes in front of their computer screens, commenting on politics, watching daytime TV, or playing games. So,what to do with them?”
—————————————————————————
Interesting question and it has caused me to ruminate on the subject a bit. It’s a long piece, so people should skip by if they are not interested. I’ll sure some of my comments will provoke strong disagreement from some.
IMO there are basically four categories of workers in the labour forces of most advanced Western nations, including Australia.
1. An ageing group of unionised and largely male workers receiving comparatively high wages for relatively unskilled, traditionally blue collar work. This group will remain powerful in some areas where AI is not readily going to dislodge them – eg, stevedoring, general labouring work in construction – but they will be replaced by AI in many other areas: eg, transport workers, perhaps even things like garbage collection. The sectors in which these people work are not going to provide large numbers of employment opportunities in future.
2. Relatively unskilled workers in person-to-person service industries: retail, hospitality, tourism, age care, orderlies in hospitals, delivering packages, etc. These industries are looking for workers with good people skills who are prepared to work hard in often difficult and demanding jobs. Workers in these industries also need far more skills than did their predecessors of previous generations: eg, they generally need to be able to use IT devices and programs and to master ever more complex rules and guidelines devised for the purpose of mininimising risk. Australian-born women particularly thrive in these sectors, as do migrants from societies with a strong work ethic: the growing presence of people from the sub-continent in these sectors is strongly evident.
3. People with post-school qualifications: ranging from tradies and hairdressers through nurses and teachers to university professors and company CEOs. Notwithstanding AI, I think these people will continue mostly to be fine in the Australian labour market of the future although, for some of them, the nature of their jobs will change. In the white collar sectors, the roll out of desktop IT in the 1980s and 1990s eliminated a large number of jobs – people who predominantly did typing, photocopying, filing and document delivery – but these were more than compensated for by a growing demand for people who had (to put it bluntly) more education and higher IQs. There is a risk that some of these higher function jobs will be offshored (to the sub-continent in particular), but I think there will always be some cultural barriers preventing too much of this: it’s always going to be difficult for someone who has never set foot in Australia to produce culturally-appropriate material for company boards, politicians, media outlets, the public, etc.
4. Finally, we have the growing population of mostly male, mostly Australian-born people who have no post-school qualifications (or haven’t even finished school), a relatively poor work ethic and, quite often, problems with their behaviour (including drug and alcohol abuse). Once upon a time, these people would have been aiming for employment in category 1, but those opportunities are now largely gone, so a lot of them are now routinely on Jobseeker. The brighter or more motivated often get their s__t together and find some sort of career (albeit that this is sometimes a criminal career: but, hey, at least they are putting their brains to use). The remainder represent a growing problem.
So my thesis is that AI is going to be less of a significant factor going forward than the long-term process – dating back to the 1980s if not earlier – of the gradual average upskilling of all jobs. A process that is leaving a significant segment of the labour force increasingly far behind.
Sadly, I don’t think there is much of an alternative for many of these people than to continue to pay them sit down money. As the baby boomers retire and there is a growing shortage of Australian-born people of working age to take their place, the contemporary Australian economy is probably richer with employment opportunities than it has been for 70 years. Any able-bodied person who can’t compete in this labour market is going to need a great deal of help, and a point is likely to be reached at which the cost of trying to get them ready for work and to stay in a full-time job might be far greater than any benefit likely to flow to them. For these people, I reckon a UBI could ultimately provide much of the solution: particularly if it is designed in a way that encourages them to take on a small amount of work to supplement it. And then, who knows, some of them might find they enjoy working and try to do more of it.
I know this sounds a bit harsh, but it’s definitely the way things are at the moment. Why would an employer want to take on a low-skilled Australian-born worker with a bad attitude when there are a thousand or more hard-working and often skilled migrants currently arriving in the country every day?
Entropy
Because currently the media is selling the anti-doxing laws to be brought in. As a response to protect jews that were doxed. So why is it alright to report when it is Jews getting doxed and not to report it when it is a jew doing the doxing?. Doing so would amount to religious discrimination. Where one group can only be described as victim of doxing never the perpetrator.
_____________________________________________
The anti-doxxing laws, which would be long overdue, would and should apply to everyone – including non-political cases. You have been told this by others and choose to ignore it because you would rather go full anti-Jew.
It’s irrelevant that this guy is Jewish. You chose to throw that in because you are antisemitic. You say this guy is an arsehole, and you throw in “jewish” for good measure because you need to remind everyone every time you see a “bad” Jew. As for links with the Israeli army, there are a lot of Jewish people in Australia with links to the Israeli army, or who have even been in it, given there is compulsory conscription. What’s the point? Ben Roberts-Smith had links to the Australian army. So did Mike Kelly, former member for Eden-Monaro.
Morrison Government rebuffed a request by the USA for more assistance in the Red Sea in February 2022. Yet the hypocrites criticised Labor for doing the same thing for the same reason. In both cases the ADF said we don’t have the resources to assist.
FUBAR @10:09pm:
“I doubt it. The fact that Australia generally gives a new government a second term is the most likely reason.”
Less true than one may think, especially in recent times. Consider the last three times a first-term Commonwealth Govt sought re-election:
2016 – Lost 14 seats, reduced to 1-seat majority. 2PP vote: 50.4-49.6.
2010 – Lost 11 seats, hung Parliament. 2PP vote: 50.1-49.9.
1998 – Lost 14 seats, reduced to 5-seat majority. 2PP vote: 49-51.
Each time, the incumbents have effectively fallen over the line. This bodes ill for the current Government, as (unlike each of these examples) it has little margin to play with.
nath says:
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 11:45 am
The ACCR’s job is to make LNG look bad, very bad.
TPOFsays:
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 12:04 pm
================================================
Sorry TPOF, i reserve the right to call someone Jewish when they are Jewish. Particularly when the topic in discussion is being reported by all news outlets, all containing the word Jewish in their reports too.
So what you are saying is i can only use the word Jewish for people you like but not people you dislike?. Do you use the same system for people of African ethnicity?. As i don’t know whom you like and who you don’t. Could you supply a list of all Jewish people you don’t like. So in the future i’ll know not to point to their Jewish ethnicity in anyway. Lets start with this one. Is it alright for me to call Frydenberg that, in certain context, or never at all?.
FUBAR’S just getting in early with the misdirection and disinformation to explain the LNP’s next loss. 😉
The media environment has been generally stacked against the left for many a year. At least as far back as the mid 70’s when Murdoch turned hard on Whitlam overnight. It is what it is. But even without that impediment, the ALP still needs to recognise that policy needs to be sold and sold well. Especially big change. Good policy doesnt sell itself. Like it or not, leaders (especially leaders of left of centre parties) need a little charisma/boldness/audacity/chutzpah to succeed in a of a capitalist democracy – mixed in with a steady hand and good policy.
As we have seen with people like Trump, Obama, even Sanders and certainly Keating and maybe Johnson, boldness can be an electoral advantage. I would argue that it wasnt Shortens bold policy platform that was the problem.
Small target certainly works when your ‘steady hands and calm leadership’ platform is up against a looney like Trump (2020) or Morrison (2022). But Morrison (2019) was ripe for a bold opposition campaign imo.
A perverse outcome, IMO.
What, exactly, constitutes ‘world peace’?
Trump did not initiate a war while he was POTUS. When push comes to shove he was, and is, an isolationist. His external focus is almost invariably trade-related. If he is a threat to world peace it may be because of the potential destabilization pursuant to his isolationism and his lack of respect for multi-lateral institutions including NATO. (ANZUS under Trump is, of course, a dead duck.)
Putin is a serial warmonger whose contribution to world peace stands at many hundreds of thousands dead in several different countries. He astroturfs regional conflicts, supports one side or the other and then freezes them and unfreezes them as required. Supports Assad with his military. He is up to his neck in the destabilization of half a dozen Sahelian states by way of Russian soldiers, equipment and ammunition. Oh. And he has threatened to use nuclear weapons. Clearly the single biggest threat to world peace.
Xi has approved the ramming of Philippines vessels, has approved military actions against India, and has threatened to launch an invasion of Taiwan. He is also engaged in the biggest naval build up in world peace time history. This is coupled with a world-wide spread of basing facilities and a permanent extension of the blue water fleet into the Indian Ocean. Xi is actively engaged in grey warfare including anchor dragging in the Baltic and in the approaches to Taiwan. Has made threats against Japan. Xi’s MSM employs a consistently bellicose tone replete with tub thumping military threats. A clear second to Putin.
Kahamenei routinely initiates military aggressions from within Iran, and via his mates, in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Pakistan. These military attacks are current and include attacks on neutral shipping. Routinely recruits, trains, arms and supplies a large number of jihadi groups. His vision statement includes the genocide of Israel’s jews. Further, Kahamenei is up to his neck in islamic sectarian conflicts. In terms of the countries he has attacked he a clear third to Xi.
Kim fulminates but does not show the slightest evidence that he would actually launch a war. IMO he should not be on this list at all.
Netanyahu is responsible for military strikes against various neighbours and has, and has his Government’s vision statement, the genocide of Palestinians. Encourages and reinforces the piece meal and persistent aggression of so-called settlers into Palestinian lands. Maintains Gaza as the world’s biggest open-air jail.
My list would be:
Putin
Xi
Khamenei/Netanyahu
Trump
Kim
Just how bad is Ssusssan Ley at her job? Behold:
https://youtu.be/8GgMdwJq–A?si=9syGmLvVbg8uSXSH
With Wilkinson still on the Channel 10 payroll, they could send into the jungle for a return on her 1.7m salary.
Any other show for her return would be a ratings flop. She is toxic to mainstream audiences.
But I would watch her on I’m a Celebrity get me out of here. I would also pay to vote her in to participate in the eating trials.
Entropy,
Are you ESL? You seem to have trouble spelling certain common words, like ‘too’ and ‘won’t’. ‘Anyway’ used instead of any way.
C@t I’m now more leaning towards entropy potentially being some kind of chat GPT4 or similar AI deployment to test how it goes in a forum type of setting?
Putin is a threat to peace in Europe, Xi is a threat to peace in East Asia and the Pacific, Kim is a threat to peace in Korea, etc. etc. etc.
A destabilised isolationist USA led by a madman who actively incites his enemies to attack his allies is a threat to peace just about everywhere.
‘EightES says:
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 12:21 pm
Putin is a threat to peace in Europe, Xi is a threat to peace in East Asia and the Pacific, Kim is a threat to peace in Korea, etc. etc. etc.
A destabilised isolationist USA led by a madman who actively incites his enemies to attach his allies is a threat to peace just about everywhere.’
—————————
Actually, your view reinforces my point. It is not Trump who would be emboldened to launch wars in that context. It is Putin and Xi and Khamenei.
Entropy
You’re talking shit.
If Trump gets reelected, Australia should seriously consider shifting to a nuclear subs deal with Japan or South Korea.
They have the ship and sub building talents (far more capacity than UK industry), they have nuclear industries, and their shipbuilding industries are known to be far cheaper than US or UK (literally half the cost for similar ships).
If Trump gets reelected they will also have the motivation.
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 12:18 pm
Entropy,
Are you ESL? You seem to have trouble spelling certain common words, like ‘too’ and ‘won’t’. ‘Anyway’ used instead of any way.
===================================================
Is it common on here to criticise peoples grammar. When they disagree with what they saying?. It is a common method employed by TPOF and their sock puppets. Now you are employing it. The fact you can’t win an argument with someone with poor grammar. Says more about your intellectual ability than mine i suspect though.
@Taylormerde:
“She is toxic to RWNJ audiences.”
FTFU.
She is toxic to you. Good.
leftieBrawler @ #729 Tuesday, February 13th, 2024 – 12:21 pm
I didn’t want to go that far but it’s an experiment that will happen one day.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 12:18 pm
Entropy,
Are you ESL? You seem to have trouble spelling certain common words, like ‘too’ and ‘won’t’. ‘Anyway’ used instead of any way.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Maybe Entropy’s English teacher was the same person as Entropy’s Tax Law teacher.
Interesting article in the Guardian today.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/12/revealed-the-1200-big-methane-leaks-from-waste-dumps-trashing-the-planet
High % of the emissions are due to food waste, mixed with everything else, rotting. 🙁
Makes sense. My partner works for an urban local Govt that has a lot of cafe / restaurant businesses.
Apparently they did the sums and 70% of their LGA carbon emissions are food waste.
But what i found most interesting about this article was that segregation even into just food /not-food
would make a big difference.
Have been looking around for info on the Kwinanna Waste to Energy Plant as rubbish segregation is important for the feedstock. Apparently construction delays mean its now proposed to open late 24 but seems that’s circumstantial (hard to get workers /supply chain / covid / legal ?? ) rather than any problem with the tech.
Any of the engineering / contractor types on PB know anything about this project??
TPOFsays:
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 12:24 pm
Entropy
You’re talking shit.
=========================================
I was reply to you and so used language consistent with your normal repertoire.
Entropy says:
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 12:35 pm
TPOFsays:
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 12:24 pm
Entropy
You’re talking shit.
=========================================
I was reply to you and so used language consistent with your normal repertoire.
________________________________________________
I can’t work out whether you are a genuine closet Jew-hater (you don’t like the word antisemite) or whether you are so absorbed in you own cleverness that you have lost all moral bearings.
“If Trump gets reelected, Australia should seriously consider shifting to a nuclear subs deal with Japan or South Korea. ”
Or, seriously … maybe France? They seem to have a pretty reliable product in the Suffren /Barracuda ?
But if the decision was to dump Nuclear and go conventional boats then the Korean yards deserve a good look. Japan may win that though as their new lithium ion powered boats are impressive.
Reading all this hostility this morning I call for peace and lefties peacemaking intervention.
Anyway, I’ll leave you to your nastiness. I’m off. So you can have the last meaningless words.
nadia88 on Mon at 10.52 pm
“Someone might post and explain the difference between these two groups, but they’re different.”
Hanson is a persistent RW cult, albeit one with a leader without any personality, except the claim that she always knows best about everything (much like Brezhnev). Initially Hanson depended on some RW Lib operatives, such as David Oldfield, and later on Ashby. Note: it is a political cult not a party.
While there have been occasional peaks in voter support and representation, sometimes accidental (e.g. courtesy of Turnbull’s DD in 2016), the overall trend since 2016 has been downward, and this shows no sign of ending, because of the nature of the group as a personality cult with a leader-based identity. Hanson supporters identify with her because of who she is, rather than due to policies etc.
However bad the performance of the cult’s leadership, e.g. running away from the media in the 2017 WA election, there seems to be a floor of something around 4%, which Hanson did not get below, before Palmer resurfaced with his much more expensive franchise in 2019, outpolling Hanson.
While Hanson pretended to stand for something, which she could not articulate, Palmer was purely a preference harvesting operation for the Libs. Palmer had historical links to the LNP. Because he had much more advertising, and competed for disgruntled and ignorant voters like Hanson, Palmer regularly outpolled Hanson in 2019 and 2022. Yet Palmer only got one Senate seat (Babet) in 2022.
The Dunkley by-election will be a clear indication of what happens when neither Palmer nor Hanson candidates stand, since in 2022 Palmer got 5% and Hanson 2.8%.
You also said: “And sorry, someone posted earlier that a sample of 600 voters is rubbish. It’s not, out of an electorate of 115000 people. We have national polls which poll only 1200 out of a population of 26 million, so no a 600 sample is a solid figure.”
Here you have conflated two things: 1) poll size, and 2) national vs seat polls). If 600 were a solid figure for national polls it would be used by the pollsters, to minimise costs. It isn’t, for good reason.
However, the problem with seat polling is inherent, as Dr Bonham has stressed. A seat poll of 600 is much less reliable than a national poll of 1500 not just due to the number, but because of the inherent unreliability of seat polls.
There are countless historic examples. Here are two from about 10 days before the 2022 election:
12–13 May 2022 Utting Research Hasluck— 39% 31% 10% — 9% 6% — 55% 45% —
12–13 May 2022 Utting Research Tangney— 47% 35% 8% — 2% 2% — 54% 46%
The estimated Lib vote after prefs is given toward the end of both lines, before the Labor vote.
The actual result in Hasluck was 56% to Labor, so the poll was wrong by 11%.
The actual result in Tangney was 52.4% to Labor, so the poll was wrong by 7%.
That’s assuming there was no big swing to Labor after pre-polls started in 2022, which did not occur.
Entropy @ #734 Tuesday, February 13th, 2024 – 12:31 pm
Interesting. If anyone has a different pov to you they’re weak, they’re wrong, and that’s why they are criticising you. M’ok. Also, you still don’t understand the meaning of sock puppet. Here you go: a false online identity used for deceptive purposes. I’m not trying to deceive anyone here. I’ll also defend TPOF from your attacks on him simply for not being on the side of the Oct 7 terrorists. You’re welcome.
Morrison has imaginary friends – eg, Turnbull & Frydenberg; yet they don’t seem to be enamoured of him – can’t think why. Anway,
the lot of them were only it for self-angridisment and it’s so good that this chapter can be despatched to the shitbin of history.
The Australian 13/02
The federal government has apologised to ASIO director-general Mike Burgess after a confidential briefing to a Labor MP where he purportedly described pro-Palestine rallies as a “pressure release” on domestic terror was relayed to a voter.
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Loose lips sink ships.
Casual Observersays:
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 12:32 pm
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 12:18 pm
Entropy,
Are you ESL? You seem to have trouble spelling certain common words, like ‘too’ and ‘won’t’. ‘Anyway’ used instead of any way.
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Maybe Entropy’s English teacher was the same person as Entropy’s Tax Law teacher.
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Maybe they were. Though i still wish to get rid of NG on shares. While i quite like the idea of NG on houses to be on new builds only though.
Team Katich: “Small target certainly works when your ‘steady hands and calm leadership’ platform is up against a looney like Trump (2020) or Morrison (2022). But Morrison (2019) was ripe for a bold opposition campaign imo.”
I strongly disagree. Shorten would have won easily in 2019 if Labor had adopted a small target strategy.
Labor lacked the agility to switch tactics after the plutocrat Turnbull was replaced with the highly suburban (at least ostensibly) ScoMo.
Sam Maiden explained all this well in her book on the 2019 election: long before Turnbull got the boot, Labor had committed all the savings from their proposed changes to tax and superannuation towards various policies in health, education, child care and other areas that were strongly favoured by their shadow ministers. Unfortunately, these policies largely seemed to comprise simply throwing buckets of additional money at these sectors rather than financing significant reforms that would provide clearly-identifiable benefits to the public.
The spending policies therefore struggled to gain much traction, but hundreds of thosands of voters could clearly identify themselves as losers from the revenue-raising changes to tax and superannuation. And Shorten and Bowen and others struggled to respond adequately to criticism of these proposals: culminating in Shorten’s embarassing inability even to recall the existence of one of them during an exchange with a voter in Queensland.
And yet I reckon Labor might still have won the election if they hadn’t gone all in with those tone deaf slogans about the “big end of town”: slogans that were crafted to target Turnbull, and which were more or less meaningless in relation to ScoMo. According to Maiden, some Labor politicians didn’t want to use them, but were forced to do so by head office. The class war and class envy have never played well in Australian politics, as Ben Chifley found to his cost in 1949.
If Shorten had run a small target strategy in 2019, as Albo did in 2022, nath would be a much more unhappy camper than he is today.