Polls: Essential Research, WA Voice results, Ukraine support (open thread)

Essential Research records Anthony Albanese’s softest personal ratings since the election, plus more results from Utting Research’s eyebrow-raising poll from Western Australia.

Three batches of poll results, plus relevant news on the Indigenous Voice referendum and Victoria’s Warrandyte state by-election:

• The Guardian reports the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Anthony Albanese’s approval rating below half for the first time since the election, dropping six points in its monthly reading to 48%, with disapproval up six to 41%. Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 37% and down two on disapproval to 43%. The report does not provide the poll’s voting intention numbers, which should be with us later today. In other findings, 41% approved and 36% disapproved of the Victorian government’s cancellation of the Commonwealth Games, with support at 44% from the poll’s modest sample of Victorian respondents. The poll had a sample of 1150 and was presumably conducted as per usual from Wednesday to Sunday. UPDATE: The voting intention numbers are Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 32% (steady), Greens 14% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one), with undecided up one to 6%. This is the first time the Coalition has led on the primary vote in this series since the election, and the 2PP+ lead of Labor 50% (down one) to Coalition 45% (up one), with undecided on 6% (up one), is equal narrowest. Full report here.

• The West Australian today brings further results from the Utting Research poll that credited the state Liberals with a 54-46 lead, finding 58% planning to vote no on the Indigenous Voice compared with 29% for yes and 13% undecided. With the latter excluded, the result is exactly two-thirds yes and one-third no. Since other recent polling from Western Australia has tended to suggest only a modest leaning towards no, it’s tempting to regard this as evidence that the poll struck a heavily conservative rogue sample, and to interpret the voting intention numbers accordingly. The poll further records 54% saying the state’s Aboriginal Cultural Heritage Act had made them less likely to vote for the Voice, compared with 16% for more likely, 23% for neither and 7% for unsure.

• The Age/Herald had yet more results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll on Sunday, showing 31% in favour of increased support for Ukraine, 45% support for retaining it at its current level and only 9% support for decreasing or withdrawing support.

• Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review reports 60,000 Indigenous voters have been added to the electoral roll since the end of last year, increasing the enrolment rate from 84.5% to 94.1%. This followed “sustained work” by the Australian Electoral Commission encompassing “special enrolment strategies, direct enrolment rules for remote communities, and changes to allow voters to enrol a Medicare card”. As noted here previously, the Indigenous enrolment surge has led to a proposed redistribution for the Northern Territory parliament being scrapped and started again.

• Tom Cowie of The Age reports Labor “looks increasingly unlikely to field a contender” at the Victorian state by-election for Warrandyte on August 26. The Greens have endorsed Manningham deputy mayor Tomas Lightbody. Other candidates include independent Maya Tesa, a past Liberal Democrats candidate who polled 7.0% as an independent at the Aston by-election on April 1.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,848 comments on “Polls: Essential Research, WA Voice results, Ukraine support (open thread)”

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  1. 1. What was your reaction to ANAO’s report that stated the “unforeseen immaturity” of the Taipan design and support system, as well as high running costs ..?

    2. Given the 2010 engine failure while in-flight, the 2019 tail rotor blade problem and in 2020 the sliding cabin door rail problems – all of which resulted in groundings – were you concerned at all that the Taipan was still in operation now ?

    3. What briefings have you had from RAAF command regarding the ongoing safety of the Taipan ?

  2. @ C@t:

    “ Not quite happy with the explanation of the drones being an inside job by the Russians. The last one did some real damage. ”

    ______

    I think that if Ukraine wanted to send some sort of ‘existential’ message to Russia – and its populous – that nowhere was safe, alla Hamas and its rockets into Tel Aviv, also alla bomber command’s strike on Berlin in the early phases of the boB, then it would go ahead and take credit: BUT the Ukrainians are denying responsibility. That’s too curious a fact to overlook.

  3. But Marles? Dude, he’s a minister.

    Yes, he’s answerable to the people regarding the operations of the ADF.

  4. Here we go …

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/30/unseasonably-warm-winter-weather-sweeps-eastern-australia-with-sydney-set-to-reach-24c-degrees

    8 degrees above normal. …

    “Parts of inland eastern Australia are pushing up to around eight degrees above normal, but we’re also seeing widespread areas of between two and six degrees above average through much of eastern Australia,”

    But this has little to do with the heat wave in the northern hemisphere …

    “Certainly it’s been extremely hot through large parts of the world. That’s not a direct cause of the temperatures here, it’s not like the heat has drifted south of the equator, but there are elements contributing to the weather we’re seeing here,” Hines said.

    One of the main contributing elements to Australia’s winter warmth was the warm ocean conditions, Hines said.

    The ocean has been storing 80% of the additional heat from global warming. Effectively, it has been our cooling system, making us think the climate was only getting a little bit warmer, and that we still had plenty of time to act.

    Wrong.

    While this current temperature spike is only temporary and we will soon see some respite, the respite will also only be temporary. We have gone far beyond what used to be considered “normal”.

    It’s time to act.

  5. “For those discussing biblical texts on here, there is a good new(ish) podcast that might interest you. It’s called “Data Over Dogma” and it’s a show run by two people, a biblical scholar (who is a believer but not a hard fundie or anything) and a layman (who is a non-believer but not obnoxious about it) and they discuss biblical texts (and relevant supporting historical texts and apocrypha) to cover what the texts might mean and how they differ among versions and what their relevance are through a historic lens. It doesn’t push any spiritual agenda and it’s more about critical understanding about certain biblical topics than any moral guidance, or pushing people towards or away from belief. It can be a little dry at times but it’s a good listen if that kind of thing interests you.”

    Thanks I will definitely look this up and have a listen this week.

  6. I’m not sure I’m comfortable going to The Oval tonight, Broad no doubt after Warner’s scalp, possibly adding to the total dismissals of him to 18. In any event, Warner should retire after this match unless he saves the day, which is highly improbable given his form of late. I sometimes wonder whether I’m on a psephological, biblical, or sports’ site.

  7. “The ocean has been storing 80% of the additional heat from global warming. Effectively, it has been our cooling system, making us think the climate was only getting a little bit warmer, and that we still had plenty of time to act.”

    We are talking about very complex systems, and we may see quite a few feedback loops that help us, but we may also see some accelerating systems that hurt us more than expected.

    But this ocean heat sink thing could be quite a bad thing, in much simpler systems you know when heat sinks you’ve been relying on get to the overheat point, bad bad bad things happen very quickly.

  8. Good job with the Googling, Rex. But Taylormade’s question was smarter. The ANAO report to which you refer was about a decade ago, and Marles very obviously received no briefing to the effect that the helicopter shouldn’t have been flying

  9. Player One @ #1751 Sunday, July 30th, 2023 – 6:46 pm

    Here we go …

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/30/unseasonably-warm-winter-weather-sweeps-eastern-australia-with-sydney-set-to-reach-24c-degrees

    8 degrees above normal. …

    “Parts of inland eastern Australia are pushing up to around eight degrees above normal, but we’re also seeing widespread areas of between two and six degrees above average through much of eastern Australia,”

    But this has little to do with the heat wave in the northern hemisphere …

    “Certainly it’s been extremely hot through large parts of the world. That’s not a direct cause of the temperatures here, it’s not like the heat has drifted south of the equator, but there are elements contributing to the weather we’re seeing here,” Hines said.

    One of the main contributing elements to Australia’s winter warmth was the warm ocean conditions, Hines said.

    The ocean has been storing 80% of the additional heat from global warming. Effectively, it has been our cooling system, making us think the climate was only getting a little bit warmer, and that we still had plenty of time to act.

    Wrong.

    While this current temperature spike is only temporary and we will soon see some respite, the respite will also only be temporary. We have gone far beyond what used to be considered “normal”.

    It’s time to act.

    We have a GLOBAL BOILING catastrophe about to hit and we have a Prime Minister with a massive carbon footprint obsessed with red carpets and taking directions from fossil fuel exporters.

  11. Thanks Spence. The submission has been backed by a local planning firm (not lawyers). The decision will have very little to do with the planning code as it has been taken over by the State Planning Commission due to its monetary value and size and nature. My assessment is that arguing against the SPC on planning matters will be an expensive task (that I doubt the local action group have the funds for) and likely to fail (but may get some concessions). However, the development is clearly at odds with the proclamation and watching the SPC at the local meeting react to someone bringing it up has me smelling rats. I strongly suspect they do not want the minister to be answering questions in the media about why he is quietly asking the governor to revoke a proclamation that was made under the Dunstan ALP government. It wouldnt cost much to get advice from a planning lawyer then head straight to the media and David Spiers.

    I am not that against the development idea but the plans show the developer isnt trying to be sensitive to the location – it is an environmentally significant area. Their own ecology report clearly enunciates they need to redesign to protect more of the vegetation.

  13. “It’s the King James Bible.”

    Are not all English monarchs saints? Wasn’t that what happened behind the magic curtain when Chuck III got extra kinged?

  14. Mavis @ #1753 Sunday, July 30th, 2023 – 6:48 pm

    I’m not sure I’m comfortable going to The Oval tonight, Broad no doubt after Warner’s scalp, possibly adding to the total dismissals of him to 18. In any event, Warner should retire after this match unless he saves the day, which is highly improbable given his form of late. I sometimes wonder whether I’m on a psephological, biblical, or sports’ site.

    Not for me either Mavis. So many unlikeable types.

  18. Thanks guys, I am. The exercises seem to be working.

    I washed the dogs, did some chores and then did 35 minutes on the indoor bike trainer this afternoon without feeling like I needed to vomit. Fingers crossed.

  21. On matters religious plenty of time for the Eagles to lose this one by a lot. Their only job this year is to secure many many sympathy / too pathetic not to help draft picks.

  22. An unequivocal statement revealing the true, unvarnished nature of the Jewish/Christian/Islamic common deity.

    Deuteronomy 20:16-17
    English Standard Version

    “(16) But in the cities of these peoples that the Lord your God is giving you for an inheritance, you shall save alive nothing that breathes, (17) but you shall devote them to complete destruction, the Hittites and the Amorites, the Canaanites and the Perizzites, the Hivites and the Jebusites, as the Lord your God has commanded.”

    Complete destruction. Absolute total genocide. Nothing that breathes! As the Lord your God has commanded! As the Lord your God has commanded! As the Lord your God has commanded!

    Justify that please. Anyone at all.

    Apparently the Genesis gobbledygook makes total sense to some. I presume that this piece of horror must, as well, somehow. Over to you.

  24. And before someone calls me a Nimby – no, this isnt a residential, community nor renewable energy development and it isnt in my immediate local area. I am helping out some peeps and annoyed that a developer thinks they can get away with clearing native bushland when there is ample cleared space they could build on.

    And oh yes indeedee do – I have no problem calling up a Liberal mate or two to get the opposition leader on board.

  26. Rex Douglas:

    Sunday, July 30, 2023 at 6:54 pm

    [‘Not for me either Mavis. So many unlikeable types.’]

    I have to say, I’ve never forgiven Smith & Warner for cheating, nor the latter’s propensity for sledging. I really don’t like Warner.

  27. Ch9 news reported that 90% of Australian households will be able to access super fast fibre NBN by 2025. This is the internet the country should’ve had 10 years ago.

    Another example of the wasted decade of missed opportunities courtesy of the Liberal party.

  28. More signs of Moscow’s diplomatic isolation:

    “The Associated Press is reporting that Saudi Arabia will host a Ukrainian-organised peace summit in early August seeking to find a way to start negotiations, an official said on Saturday night.

    The kingdom and Kyiv did not immediately acknowledge the planned talks.

    The summit will be held in the Red Sea port city of Jeddah, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity as no authorisation had been given to publicly discuss the summit.

    Those taking part in the summit will include Ukraine, as well as Brazil, India, South Africa and several other countries, the official said. A high-level official from Joe Biden’s administration also is expected to attend, the official said. Planning for the event is being overseen by Kyiv and Russia is not invited, the official said.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jul/30/russia-ukraine-war-live-drones-damage-moscow-buildings-in-early-morning-attack-putin-says-he-does-not-reject-peace-talks

    Time to start speaking of BICS rather than BRICS, maybe. Pariah status for Russia is just what happens when you spend 18 months flagrantly violating international law, waging completely unnecessary war, committing genocide, then deliberately sabotaging the world’s food supply, I guess.

  29. I dislike both Smith and Warner. They are two of the reasons I went off cricket, despite being a fan for most of my life.

  30. Shellbell, easy than I thought it would be….

    37—Proclamation of open space
    A proclamation made under section 62 of the Planning Act 1982 (or made under
    section 61 of the Planning and Development Act 1966 or section 29 of the Town
    Planning Act 1929) will continue in force and effect as if the Planning Act 1982 had
    not been repealed (and that Act will be taken to continue to apply in relation to any
    such proclamation).

  31. Wow, I’ve heard it all now:

    “Putin says the African proposal could be a basis for peace in Ukraine, but that Ukrainian attacks made it hard to realise.

    “There are provisions of this peace initiative that are being implemented,” he said. “But there are things that are difficult or impossible to implement.”

    Putin says that one of the points in the initiative was a ceasefire. “But the Ukrainian army is on the offensive, they are attacking, they are implementing a large-scale strategic offensive operation… We cannot cease fire when we are under attack.””

    Putin, hello!!! Piss your military units the fuck off out of Ukraine and back behind its own borders, and stop your units firing missiles into Ukrainian cities. Then, those units won’t be ‘attacked’ by Ukrainian defenders trying to clear them out by force because you won’t give the order yourself. Tosser.

  33. Deuteronomy 20:16-17
    English Standard Version

    “(16) But in the cities of these peoples that the Lord your God is giving you for an inheritance, you shall save alive nothing that breathes, (17) but you shall devote them to complete destruction, the Hittites and the Amorites, the Canaanites and the Perizzites, the Hivites and the Jebusites, as the Lord your God has commanded.”
    ___________
    That’s just trash talk. There was probably a big football match on that weekend.

  35. If Warner scores big – even more reason to retire.

    I dont see them getting there. But if they do get there, then they deserve to win the series.

  36. ““(16) But in the cities of these peoples that the Lord your God is giving you for an inheritance, you shall save alive nothing that breathes, (17) but you shall devote them to complete destruction, the Hittites and the Amorites, the Canaanites and the Perizzites, the Hivites and the Jebusites, as the Lord your God has commanded.””

    I’m assuming this is similar too, or a translation of my ‘kill them all don’t spare the women and children’ quote that I found a little surprising as a child.

  39. Q: Ch9 news reported that 90% of Australian households will be able to access super fast fibre NBN by 2025. This is the internet the country should’ve had 10 years ago.

    The important phrase is ‘will be able to access’…of course AT A HUGE PRICE.

    I am in an ordinary rented flat here in Bangkok for a month in 2023, just did a speed test -315Mbps!!!!

  40. I wanna see how much England get it hooping again. When they need it most, it swings. Any Aussies at the ground need to get their binocs onto ball shining efforts – look for patches on their clothing.

  43. You are right about the King James Bible and I recall Chrisopher Hitchens’ praise:

    Four hundred years ago, just as William Shakespeare was reaching the height of his powers and showing the new scope and variety of the English language, and just as “England” itself was becoming more of a nation-state and less an offshore dependency of Europe, an extraordinary committee of clergymen and scholars completed the task of rendering the Old and New Testaments into English, and claimed that the result was the “Authorized” or “King James” version. This was a fairly conservative attempt to stabilize the Crown and the kingdom, heal the breach between competing English and Scottish Christian sects, and bind the majesty of the King to his devout people. “The powers that be,” it had Saint Paul saying in his Epistle to the Romans, “are ordained of God.” This and other phrasings, not all of them so authoritarian and conformist, continue to echo in our language: “When I was a child, I spake as a child”; “Eat, drink, and be merry”; “From strength to strength”; “Grind the faces of the poor”; “salt of the earth”; “Our Father, which art in heaven.” It’s near impossible to imagine our idiom and vernacular, let alone our liturgy, without them. Not many committees in history have come up with such crystalline prose.

    http://www.jeffriddle.net/2017/01/more-hitchens-on-king-james-version.html

  44. I am in an ordinary rented flat here in Bangkok for a month in 2023, just did a speed test -315Mbps!!!!

    We’ve been so ripped off in Australia when it comes to internet services. And cost.

  46. Confessions:

    Sunday, July 30, 2023 at 7:09 pm

    [‘I dislike both Smith and Warner. They are two of the reasons I went off cricket, despite being a fan for most of my life.’]

    So do I, though Smith was misled by Alpha male Warner – a Jack!

  48. Hitchens adds:

    A culture that does not possess this common store of image and allegory will be a perilously thin one. To seek restlessly to update it or make it “relevant” is to miss the point, like yearning for a hip-hop Shakespeare. “Man is born unto trouble as the sparks fly upward,” says the Book of Job. Want to try to improve that for Twitter?

    __________________
    It’s a good point. And while they may have believed in ‘Sky fairies’ Yabba has never written anything near as beautiful.

  50. Initial Taipan Helicopter accident assessment from what I’ve been able to piece together:

    Aircraft belonged to 6 AVN, the collocated regiment to 5AVN.
    Both regiments fly MRH-90s (5 AVN also fly CH-47 Chinooks).
    The Taipan did not ditch and there were no warning communications.
    The airframe broke in two suggesting the airframe struck the ocean at speed or on a banking manoeuvre close to the ocean surface.
    The part of the airframe recovered was the rear of the helicopter.
    The crew likely died on impact at speed with the bodies remaining in the front of the yet-to-be-recovered front section.

    This leaves open the option of either airframe failure or operator error, potentially due to spacial awareness problems or misjudgement resulting from night flying at speed.

    None of the above has been officially confirmed and the formal investigation will take a significant period.

    NZ MRH-90s only continue to fly on Ex Talisman Sabre.

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