Three batches of poll results, plus relevant news on the Indigenous Voice referendum and Victoria’s Warrandyte state by-election:
• The Guardian reports the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Anthony Albanese’s approval rating below half for the first time since the election, dropping six points in its monthly reading to 48%, with disapproval up six to 41%. Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 37% and down two on disapproval to 43%. The report does not provide the poll’s voting intention numbers, which should be with us later today. In other findings, 41% approved and 36% disapproved of the Victorian government’s cancellation of the Commonwealth Games, with support at 44% from the poll’s modest sample of Victorian respondents. The poll had a sample of 1150 and was presumably conducted as per usual from Wednesday to Sunday. UPDATE: The voting intention numbers are Labor 31% (down one), Coalition 32% (steady), Greens 14% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one), with undecided up one to 6%. This is the first time the Coalition has led on the primary vote in this series since the election, and the 2PP+ lead of Labor 50% (down one) to Coalition 45% (up one), with undecided on 6% (up one), is equal narrowest. Full report here.
• The West Australian today brings further results from the Utting Research poll that credited the state Liberals with a 54-46 lead, finding 58% planning to vote no on the Indigenous Voice compared with 29% for yes and 13% undecided. With the latter excluded, the result is exactly two-thirds yes and one-third no. Since other recent polling from Western Australia has tended to suggest only a modest leaning towards no, it’s tempting to regard this as evidence that the poll struck a heavily conservative rogue sample, and to interpret the voting intention numbers accordingly. The poll further records 54% saying the state’s Aboriginal Cultural Heritage Act had made them less likely to vote for the Voice, compared with 16% for more likely, 23% for neither and 7% for unsure.
• The Age/Herald had yet more results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll on Sunday, showing 31% in favour of increased support for Ukraine, 45% support for retaining it at its current level and only 9% support for decreasing or withdrawing support.
• Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review reports 60,000 Indigenous voters have been added to the electoral roll since the end of last year, increasing the enrolment rate from 84.5% to 94.1%. This followed “sustained work” by the Australian Electoral Commission encompassing “special enrolment strategies, direct enrolment rules for remote communities, and changes to allow voters to enrol a Medicare card”. As noted here previously, the Indigenous enrolment surge has led to a proposed redistribution for the Northern Territory parliament being scrapped and started again.
• Tom Cowie of The Age reports Labor “looks increasingly unlikely to field a contender” at the Victorian state by-election for Warrandyte on August 26. The Greens have endorsed Manningham deputy mayor Tomas Lightbody. Other candidates include independent Maya Tesa, a past Liberal Democrats candidate who polled 7.0% as an independent at the Aston by-election on April 1.
Genesis sets out the foundation myths of a group of tribes who lived in the general area that is now Israel, its occupied territories and nearby areas. There’s a bit of myth from the Babylonians and other ancient peoples in the general area mixed in, e.g the Flood, plus some “Dreamtime” myths, e.g. Creation. It seems to have been written down no earlier than about the 6th century BCE.
It also sets out laws that are to bind the said tribes. Most of this is now ignored by Christians. Much of it is not too bad, e.g make reasonable efforts to wandering livestock, pay your debts, make restitution for damage, avoid cruelty to animals. Some of it is pretty harsh, e.g, stoning to death as penalty for a wide variety of offences, e.g. working on the Sabbath.
We don’t know who wrote it all down or exactly why. It does seem to be reasonable to ask whether the unknown authors believed they were writing was literal history. Did they intend that it be believed without question as literal truth by all future generations on pain of the most dire punishments?
As far as I can tell, Hindus and Buddhists don’t believe that their ancient texts are intended as literal truth, to be believed without question. I don’t think that Australian First Nations people believe that, for example, the Rainbow Serpent refers to a physical creature that does or did exist. I think they’d say that it’s not a meaningful question.
There’s something about monotheistic religions – they conflate the quest for meaning with social control.
My only interest in professional elite sport is in seeing Australians get beaten.
Team Katich:
Sunday, July 30, 2023 at 7:17 pm
If Warner scores big – even more reason to retire.
[‘I dont see them getting there. But if they do get there, then they deserve to win the series.’]
Not really. Inclement weather denied a victory in the Fourth, England will level the series tonight – of that I have no doubt, weather saving.
Labor should make explicit the absolute debacle the coalition made of the NBN.
The coalition and Abbott and Turnbull in particular should be painted as absolute vandals and the punters should be left in no doubt as to their incompetence.
Abbie Chatfields Logies outfit doesn’t leave much to the imagination.
She may as well have just gone naked.
Leigh Sales for the Gold Logie.
Marsh tops the batting averages for the series.
Overall, he has close to (or has) a non-winning average while playing for Australia in all formats.
Only like player with anywhere near as many games for Australia who has lost more than he won is Kim Hughes.
Re Mundo @7:27 PM.
”Labor should make explicit the absolute debacle the coalition made of the NBN”
Absolutely. Also about the way they’ve undermined Medicare, Aged Care, the NDIS and the ABC, among others.
Warner is an old houso boy!
Sledging is how you survive in the burbs.
By that I mean you don’t take any shit!
Been There done that!
Very alarmed by his form slump though.
End of an era for a number of 35+ Aussies
Warner and Uzzie could be end of the road
Steve Smith at 34, has a couple of years left
Not really. Inclement weather denied a victory in the Fourth,
———————————————
Nah. Conditions have often favoured England. And it is more than feasible that a sunny day 4 could have resulted in a good batting day for Australia. Who knows. Games and series are not won or lost on hypothetical results.
i spose mcgregrers friendship with abott may help him but a former senater Chris ketter was appointed to a trade role as was rudd ambasada but when jorje brandis was appointed as hicomitioner to uk despite having no obveous diplomatic skills no coment i am not prepaired to forget his trashing of human rights comition and admin tribuna plus its okay to be biggets just becaus he made one speech attaking hanson
Anderson is a dead set legend of the game.
Jonny Bairstow must be the worst English wicketkeeper since Geraint Jones
https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/07/25/polls-essential-research-wa-voice-results-ukraine-support-open-thread/comment-page-37/#comment-4140431
Plus, https://www.news.com.au/technology/online/internet/millions-of-homes-eligible-for-faster-internet-under-plan-to-replace-aging-copper/, this seems to suggest to get non-performing services up to a wired [fibre copper] 50/ 20 Mbps (and presumably a wireless 25/ 5 Mbps with congestion and convoluted quotas) requires an upgrade [to fibre, quelle surprise] …
I doubt lotsa white van people in the neighbourhood will do wonders for uptime or performance.
Hmmm, the Libferals were the builders, they kept the government biz enterprise set up/ renationalising the broadband on ramp, red Liebor/ blue Libs lite were the architects, a 2009 relaunch of more than one billions dollars larger as an initiative than Telstra’s market cap at the time says it all …
Neither seems to have updated for WFA, gaming, streaming over browsing, email, calling.
Anyway, overdue, overpriced, still no reliable Gbps over here. We now pay the same on Nbnco HFC doing 57/ 17 Mbps [and regularly fall back on a mobile hotspot during working hours] as we did Telstra HFC doing 117/ 7 Mbps.
Supposedly by 2025, 4/ 5 premises on Nbnco get 500 to 1000 Mbps?
The fed gov must benchmark Nbnco for Gbps/ $, TB/ $, latency/ jitter, MTBF, MTTR …, say against the Netherlands (competition between serviceco, telco, mobileco, cableco, DVB-cable/ sat/ terrestrial competition) Wi-Fi at transport hubs), Singapore (stack separation), New Zealand (tendered to industry, 80% wired), France (competition in metro, subsidies elsewhere), Canada (vast country, small population).
In the meantime the regulator must dig out copper regulatory, as to minimum services, maximum prices, penalties.
laughtong says:
Sunday, July 30, 2023 at 7:25 pm
All this bible discussion has me wondering what’s happened to Snappy Tom
—————————-
I’ve been thinking the same, I miss his exegesis.
“ Warner and Uzzie could be end of the road”
Uzzie probably has 18 months at least of test cricket if he wants it.
He is still in career best form, and is a special for the home test series this summer. It would be a big incentive to finish off with a home ashes series in 2024/5.
Warner has already announced that he’s gone after the Pakistani home series this Australian summer (assuming he doesn’t get axed beforehand).
Uzzie has the technique to play into his late 30’s.
Team Katich:
Sunday, July 30, 2023 at 8:22 pm
[‘Nah. Conditions have often favoured England. And it is more than feasible that a sunny day 4 could have resulted in a good batting day for Australia. Who knows. Games and series are not won or lost on hypothetical results.’]
Fair dinkum, TK, such is not one of your better arguments. Had it not rained in the Fourth, England, with little doubt, would have won the Ashes. What will occur tonight is that Oz will retain them.
Shellbell proves what a fantastic lawyer he is, again. 🙂
Uzzie is fading fast. Time to retire.
Shaun Micallef for the Gold Logie!
Ha. If more of Crawleys edges or misses had found catches. Or inside edges of Bairstow or others hit the stumps. If only it hadnt been so dark on day 2 test 5. If only the umpires were better in 2005. If only if only if only. You can have your tea leaves – only the scoreboard matters.
There have been some stupid decisons made in this test series. Even without the benefit of hindsight, Cummins putting in Engalnd to bat in this 5th test was unfathomable. Comounded by the fact that none of the Australian bats who made a start went on with it to score a ton; not to mention that it took 15 chances to dismiss engalnd in the first innings.
I know that forelock tugging enthusiasts like Mavis (was it all the loyal toasts in the wardroom, I wonder) and flogs like Piers Morgan think that Engalnd have been the better team, but really – we let them back into the game time and again.
SBS Dutch podcast: The newish Australian ambassador to the court of King Willem-Alexander of Orange-Nassau of the Netherlands, certainly seems guaranteed to bring in high BS bingo scores.
Butter would not melt.
Can probably talk underwater.
The importance of The Hague based international courts (MH17 included), long ties like 1606, even managed to come up with a pre-1788 whatever.
Though he sounds excited, after being in Germany and Sri Lanka before.
@Henry:
“ Uzzie is fading fast. Time to retire.”
Last ten innings – 141, 65, 17, 77, 13, 43, 3, 18, 47 and currently 18 no*
So a century, two half centuries, two more near half centuries, a few other starts and … he’s in the bin. … with a series average of ~47 (matching his career average) … this seems an odd conclusion to draw from the evidence.
There have been some stupid decisions made in this test series.
————————————————-
None more so that not selecting Wood from the 1st. Close series open up so many butterfly wing moments. But Wood seems the most consequential to me on those first two tracks.
Or Root (and England in other formats) overbowling Archer in 2019 😉
Is tonight a Newspoll night?
Or are we on a three week cycle at the moment?
Andrew_Earlwood:
Sunday, July 30, 2023 at 8:52 pm
[‘I know that forelock tugging enthusiasts like Mavis (was it all the loyal toasts in the wardroom, I wonder) and flogs like Piers Morgan think that Engalnd have been the better team, but really – we let them back into the game time and again.’]
Oh FFS get over yourself, Andrew. I’m attempting to look at it objectively. But you wouldn’t know how to assess issues in such a manner. Off to The Oval, hoping that Broad will take Warner’s wicket.
I live in Kooyong and I got polled by Ucomms earlier this week. It was very targeted about Kooyong too asking about the performance of Monique Ryan etc.
So I got wonder why is Ucomms (owned by the ACTU) checking up on the vote in Kooyong? Is the government interested in how “teals” are going in their seats because they are thinking about a potential early election? Are they worried about how the “yes” vote is going in “teal” areas?
“Abbie Chatfields Logies outfit doesn’t leave much to the imagination.
She may as well have just gone naked.”
Which is disturbingly close to the official LNP policy on women, which is one of the key reasons why we have the teals.
“[‘I know that forelock tugging enthusiasts like Mavis (was it all the loyal toasts in the wardroom, I wonder) and flogs like Piers Morgan think that Engalnd have been the better team, but really – we let them back into the game time and again.’]
Oh FFS get over yourself, Andrew. I’m attempting to look at it objectively. But you wouldn’t know how to assess issues in such a manner. Off to The Oval, hoping that Broad will take Warner’s wicket.”
I think to be fair England has been Australia’s greatest weapon and vice versa in this series. England could easily have won the first two tests but didn’t, there is no way Australia could have won the last test, if Australia can win this tomorrow it will be incredible.
I googled it and was very underwhelmed by the Abbie Chatsfield’s outfit, if you think that is almost naked have I … well ok lets leave that to the side, but I’m still not sure who she is.
The longer the game goes on, the harder the batting will get (regardless of tiring bowlers). England seem to get the ball to do things around over 50.
These two need to keep the scoreboard ticking. There can be no shutting up shop for lunch.
Never heard of Abbie Chatfield…
Odds almost even! My nephew at the ground is gonna put some smart but yellow dosh on England.
“ @Henry:
“ Uzzie is fading fast. Time to retire.”
(Me): Last ten innings – 141, 65, 17, 77, 13, 43, 3, 18, 47 and currently 18 no*
_____
Make that another 50 no*
”
Mavissays:
Sunday, July 30, 2023 at 7:49 pm
Team Katich:
Sunday, July 30, 2023 at 7:17 pm
If Warner scores big – even more reason to retire.
[‘I dont see them getting there. But if they do get there, then they deserve to win the series.’]
Not really. Inclement weather denied a victory in the Fourth, England will level the series tonight – of that I have no doubt, weather saving.
”
Mavis
I believe your prediction that England will win today is not going to happen and it looks like Australia may actually win this test match.
Congrats to the AUS Swimming Team- final tally 13 Golds to the USAs 7 Gold…
So, objectively, the tea leaves say if it wasn’t for the rain Australia had this in the bag so no matter what happens we put this down as a win now. 3-1.
Good to see Khawaja and Warner putting on a good performance. A lot of Australian bats are “due” for a better performance…. Shame about the rain while the going was good.
@Fairman – entirely possible that’s polling being done for Monique Ryan. The ALP is highly unlikely to be polling a teal seat since they’ll be running dead there again anyway. Kooyong makes sense for the Yes campaign to poll (sort of) but they probably wouldn’t include questions about Ryan (I guess they could to correlate to what type of voters need to be outreached? But it seems less likely) . And the Libs wouldn’t use UComms.
Team Katich says:
Monday, July 31, 2023 at 1:30 am
“So, objectively, the tea leaves say if it wasn’t for the rain Australia had this in the bag so no matter what happens we put this down as a win now. 3-1.”
Lol
New thread.
Warner handled the sunny side up delivery from Anderson well
Zelensky pretty much claimed the drones, saying the war was returning to Russia. It’s primarily a psy-op, I think, to interrupt the sleep of Muscovites like that of Ukrainians, and bring the war home to them.
Using western missiles like Storm Shadow would imperil their arms supplies.
The drones aren’t necessarily launched from Ukrainian soil though, Ukrainian special ops people has been going into Russia, and then there are the Russian partisans backed by Ukraine also
“Senator David Van turned up briefly at the opening of the Senate for prayers, then promptly left. … he looked quite uncomfortable and left immediately after prayers were over.”
Well may we pray ‘God save the King’, for nothing will save the Senator.
(Guardian blog)
“Peter Dutton, has hit back at Labor for targeting him over whether he was briefed that the AFP had an investigation into alleged bribery one month before the home affairs department entered into a new contract with the target of that investigation.”
They don’t like it up ‘em!
(Guardian blog)
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, July 30, 2023 at 11:54 am
I should not have insulted you. I apologise. I amused myself at your expense. I regret it now. I hope you start to feel better and find some repose.