The latest Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald records no changes of consequence since the last such poll five weeks ago. Maintaining the pollster’s recent form as the strongest for Labor, it finds Labor down one on the primary vote to 39%, the Coalition steady on 30%, the Greens down one to 11% and One Nation steady on 6%. Based on preferences flows at the 2022 federal election, this would produce a two-party preferred of around 59-41 to Labor, compared with around 60-40 last time. Breakdowns for the three biggest states suggest Labor leads of around 58-42 in New South Wales, 63.5-36.5 in Victoria and 53.5-46.5 in Queensland.
Personal ratings find Anthony Albanese down slightly on both approval and disapproval, by two to 51% and one to 34%, while Peter Dutton is up three on approval to 31% and down one on disapproval to 47%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Albanese’s lead nudging from 53-22 to 51-21. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1610. If the pollster and its publisher maintain their recent pattern, it should followed over the next day or two by a Victorian state poll.
UPDATE: Further questions on the poll encompass attitudes to immigration, with the headline finding that 59% think the current rate too high, 25% about right and 3% too low.
From The Guardian…
3m ago
19.07 AEST
That said, your initial weather update is that it is hosing all over the joint. Today has been pitched as the big grudge match: AccuWeather versus The Met Office. So far the Met’s more pessimistic forecast is winning, damp palms down.
Let’s pretend we’re going to start at 11!
nath
BW gets half stale bread for half price on Mondays.
Sounds like a great idea. Where is this place that sells half-price bread? Mrs Shogun could use it for her bread-and-butter pudding.
https://t.co/sfkd9cQfvp, on them far to the left of Greens (not really), yes and no pamphlets on the voice to parliament & executive …
‘Shogun says:
Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 7:30 pm
nath
BW gets half stale bread for half price on Mondays.
Sounds like a great idea. Where is this place that sells half-price bread? Mrs Shogun could use it for her bread-and-butter pudding.’
————————
The local IGA first thing on mondays.
Thanks Boerwar. I do not think there is a IGA in my area. But there are Coles and Woolworths coming out of the woodwork.
Good idea
– also go to the fruit and veg section and ask for the specks
– unfortunately, you can no longer buy broken biscuits
GOP voters are all about vibes. Policy is but a small factor for them. A majority of GOP voters support a higher minimum wage, paid parental leave, free college, free health care. They don’t support the main policies that GOP politicians care about (low taxes for the wealthy; pro-corporate rules for labour, the environment, consumer protection).
GOP voters like Trump because he fits their idea of being tough. They think he sticks it to the mainstream media, skewers corporate politicians, says what’s on his mind. They find him entertaining, irreverent, and emotionally honest. They are malleable on issues like LGBTI rights and economic policy as long as they think their leader is strong and charismatic. That’s why de Santis’ efforts to brand Trump as too woke fail to land – the GOP voters don’t regard anti-trans panic as essential.
For Democratic voters policies are a somewhat bigger factor than for GOP voters. It would be hard or impossible for a politician to win a Democratic primary if they are seen as sexist, racist, or homophobic. But on economic issues there is ample scope for a strong, charismatic leader to define the policy agenda. Voters get a lot of their information and opinions on policy from – and this will blow your mind – POLITICIANS. The relationship between public opinion and politicians’ positions is a complex one, with lots of public opinion being shaped by what politicians choose to highlight and how well they communicate. Occasionally public opinion is so intense and so widespread that it forces politicians to reflect the public. But the vast majority of the time voters don’t have strong opinions and they can be persuaded to support policies that are currently outside the mainstream, not because voters disagree but because they haven’t heard an argument in favour. Even if people do disagree with a policy you have to consider how much they care about it. If they disagree but it isn’t a central issue for them they will still vote for the person who seems to be on their side, who fights for them, who exudes strength. That is why it is deeply misguided to rule out a policy – and to dismiss its advocates as “unelectable” – just because it is currently opposed or ignored by opinion leaders.
What will voters think about the policy when they consistently hear an argument in favour of it? Are they strongly attached to the opinion they currently express when asked? How much weight will they assign to that policy when they decide who to vote for? Do economic, political, and media elites oppose the policy because it wouldn’t serve their interests but it WOULD be in the public interest? These are important questions for a politician to consider when forecasting the electoral consequences of supporting something.
Grant_ExLibris says:
Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 6:12 pm
“I am at Tullamarine in preparation to board a flight to the USA for a library conference.
I am feeling really frightened now and wondering if I can cancel ….”
Like others I say go. The USA is a large diverse place. It is not all like Idaho or Missouri. Inequities in the US political system hide the fact that a clear majority of Americans oppose Trump.
You are going to a conference of librarians. Its a fair bet they won’t be Trump supporters and certainly not De Santis! You will probably meet some nice people, who share your concerns.
The last transport conference I went to in USA was when Trump was POTUS. The other transport engineers and planners were aghast at his approach to civic government, and I had a nice time.
Oakeshott Country says:
Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 7:41 pm
Good idea
– unfortunately, you can no longer buy broken biscuits
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reminiscent of 55+ years ago paying with pennies.
Shogun
Woolies usually sells bread at half price (or better) around 6.30 pm.
Idaho is a lovely place. It’s just infested with awful people. Like Western Australia (I kid! I kid!)
I used to get into trouble in my father’s shop (60 yrs ago); when I couldn’t find broken biscuits in the bottom of the tin, I would break some.
Grant_ExLibris
I assume you will have already boarded the plane, or headed home.
But I was concerned to read you were feeling lonely and frightened – this hit close to home as I was at Tullamarine this morning, having been away from my family.
If these are feelings you experience regularly, I hope you can talk to someone about them.
I visited Russia with some apprehension five years ago, but I found the people warm and generous (if unwilling to speak politics with a stranger).
For those of us who live in a “political bubble”, it’s important to remember that most people are just trying to get by, and that the films and media we consume distort and refract the truth on the ground.
I’ve never visited the US Grant_ExLibris, but I expect this to be the case. Either way, I hope you stay well.
OC
When I was a 15 year old check out chick, the store manager said that any broken Easter eggs would be divided up amongst the staff.
We started playing cricket in the aisles….
Tonight in Brisbane the Women’s World Cup game England vs Haiti has drawn a larger crowd (40,000) than the AFL game Lions vs Geelong (33,000).
The crowd draw success of the WWC will be a big win for it in future with sponsorships and broadcast rights revenue sure to grow.
And the Lions stopped freezing up (whew) 🙂
America is a big place. In my experience, the worst travel. Sometimes the loudest. Maybe like Australia… I don’t know. I’d like to think it’s not like that here. Henry Rollins did a piece on it live. It’s the fuck you man. You can’t tell me what to do. That’s what they as a culture think. 1st amendment. raaaaah. No other country has that thing.
But, again, America is a big place. Behind Thais, the second friendliest people to engage with if you travel their country. Haven’t read that; my words. But I am a white man.
zoomster says:
Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 8:24 pm
OC
When I was a 15 year old check out chick, the store manager said that any broken Easter eggs would be divided up amongst the staff.
We started playing cricket in the aisles….
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The introduction to a life of crime? ha
Swans playing in WA
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/07/21/gop-college-towns-00106974
This Is a Really Big Deal’: How College Towns Are Decimating the GOP
Growing population in America’s highly educated enclaves has led to huge gains for the Democratic Party. And Republicans are scrambling for answers.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/07/21/gop-college-towns-00106974
‘This Is a Really Big Deal’: How College Towns Are Decimating the GOP
Growing population in America’s highly educated enclaves has led to huge gains for the Democratic Party. And Republicans are scrambling for answers.
Charles
“ Growing population in America’s highly educated enclaves has led to huge gains for the Democratic Party. And Republicans are scrambling for answers.”
The Republican leaning Supreme Court stopping Biden cancelling student loans won’t have helped either.
Charles
“Growing population in America’s highly educated enclaves has led to huge gains for the Democratic Party. And Republicans are scrambling for answers.”
Republicans blocking Biden’s cancellation of student loans won’t help with this either.
That’s a really good post Nicholas. I don’t know how you square that level of understanding about politics with some of the other stuff you say, but that post is really spot on and well expressed.
BW: “Physics and chemistry do not give a damn about carbon intensity. ”
Humans who know math do.
as an aside, I too am concerned about c@t.
zoomster
Woolies usually sells bread at half price (or better) around 6.30 pm.
Good to know, thank you.
I laughed at the Easter egg story.
Agree re Nicholas. I love bold statements. Not what you’re against; What are you for? Love it. Not sure what the point was though. America is weird. They vote for stupid shit all of the time. Dog catcher. Judge. whatever.
Acording to a gardian article at the time banks successor Gladis liu claimed credit for Banks victory with her running a anti gay maridge labor campaign on we chat she was apeeling to chinease voters aparently against safe schools the liberals used similar tacdicks in 2019 and 2022 but the damage was dun buy then with morrisons retorick so it did not work
Raining in Manchester and an update from the ground: sitting alone in the middle of the empty Party Stand, getting soaked, is a bloke with a beard and a nautical hat dressed as Captain Birdseye, and five friends dressed as fish fingers.
I have been mulling over this idea of cowardice. Is centrality and negotiated outcomes a sign of cowardice?
Or is delegating one’s moral reasoning and values to idolatry a form of moral cowardice.
Did I say idolatry? I meant ideology. But if the (horse)shoe fits….
This video is the latest instalment from “Binkov’s battlefields”. It is titled
“Is the Royal Navy up to the task? Under (financial) pressure: Royal Navy’s uncertain future”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMlsMmuiOKA
Sobering viewing for Britain’s allies.
You’ve all read Sapiens, right?
Well, who knew. Here’s Yuval Noah Harari on you can’t do it by yourself.
https://youtu.be/_Os5QrPRQpg
The long video with this remarkable thinker follows, again with time stamps (scroll across time bar) and/or pull down menu.
0:00 – Introduction
1:24 – Intelligence
20:19 – Origin of humans
30:41 – Suffering
51:22 – Hitler
1:09:54 – Benjamin Netanyahu
1:28:17 – Peace in Ukraine
1:45:07 – Conspiracy theories
1:59:46 – AI safety
2:14:04 – How to think
2:23:47 – Advice for young people
2:26:28 – Love
2:36:38 – Mortality
2:41:02 – Meaning of life
https://youtu.be/Mde2q7GFCrw
Griff @ #1729 Saturday, July 22nd, 2023 – 9:15 pm
Outsource nothing. Funny you should cross post this – I just posted Yuval Noah Harari on anthropomorphising deities.
HHB: “Raining in Manchester and an update from the ground: sitting alone in the middle of the empty Party Stand, getting soaked, is a bloke with a beard and a nautical hat dressed as Captain Birdseye, and five friends dressed as fish fingers.”
As is tradition.
wombat, if you’re about, Douglas Stewart and The Fire on the Snow resonated strongly. I have a signed copy, a gift from my mother, a gift to her. Somehow my mother had a relationship with Margaret Coen, his wife, perhaps nursing her in her old age I think, something my mother took to after we had all left home. Thanks for the links, and the tragedy of Mallory, of whom I knew nothing.
How did you come to this pursuit?
ItzaDream says:
Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 9:29 pm
Griff @ #1729 Saturday, July 22nd, 2023 – 9:15 pm
“I have been mulling over this idea of cowardice. Is centrality and negotiated outcomes a sign of cowardice?
Or is delegating one’s moral reasoning and values to idolatry a form of moral cowardice.
Did I say idolatry? I meant ideology. But if the (horse)shoe fits….”
Outsource nothing. Funny you should cross post this – I just posted Yuval Noah Harari on anthropomorphising deities.
___________
Fortuitous indeed. Thanks for the link, as I am not firm in this opinion, and welcome additional input.
Griff: ” I am not firm in this opinion, and welcome additional input.”
Words to live by.
PS: that made me read the earlier post. yes. idolatry. ideology. I’d like to think they’re not related, but they are.
VCT Et3e at 7.31 pm
The Guardian Australia journalists’ fact-checking is more thorough, though a bit weak in places:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2023/jul/20/the-vote-no-pamphlet-referendum-voice-to-parliament-voting-essay-aec-published-read-in-full-annotated-fact-checked
Anybody with a link to Deakin Uni should ask why their library does not provide a link to such fact-checking of the Yes and No pamphelts, and why it has a 1 min video for Yes and a 9 min video for No:
https://deakin.libguides.com/voice-to-parliament/yes
https://deakin.libguides.com/voice-to-parliament/no
https://deakin.libguides.com/voice-to-parliament/referendum
The library is promoting falsehoods without any link to correction of basic factual errors. A shame.
From yesterday’s Crikey:
Trumpian tactics –
” The No campaign relies upon, and the Trump campaign drew its strength from, white grievance and the positioning of privileged majority groups as the real victims of far less powerful, dispossessed minorities. Both rely on a conspiracy theory narrative in which progressive elites — corporate, political, media — are oppressing, robbing and taking away the rights of ordinary people, who are urged to vote in defiance of this plot.”
https://www.crikey.com.au/2023/07/21/voice-to-parliament-no-vote-australia-trump-moment/?su=UEJ5dU1IVWZVbWdidyt2NDV2RGQwUT09
ItzaDream @ #1735 Saturday, July 22nd, 2023 – 9:38 pm
Because I had the fleeting opportunities, they filled me and I survived. It can have a fierce & ephemeral joy. I don’t think of Mallory as a tragedy – which is why Gray’s song resonates. The change in mountaineering from punk (e.g. Joe Simpson’s Touching the Void) to the Everest Industry (e.g. Jon Krakauer’s Into Thin Air, or Jen Peedom’s Sherpa) is melancholy. Soon the ice will be gone – my kids will never know what it was like.
Rex Douglassays:
Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 10:09 am
The Voice is very different from truth/treaty.
It’s very disingenuous to pretend both are the same thing.
=========================================
You, like many, are not getting it.
The Voice leads to Truth & Treaty!
It is not very different, it is the start of the process.
Stop opposing things because they are Labor!
If the Voice is lost, Treaty is off the agenda for a generation. The direct elocutionists joined with the populist right to kill the Republic – 24 years so far, at least 7-10 to go. The Greens joined with the populist right to kill climate action for a decade and carbon pricing permanently. Now they are fantasising about a Treaty.
P1
The article was about eco resorts in general.
Not your little neck of the woods.
Obviously, your ego took control.
Good to see the article made very salient points which you chose to ignore in defence of your project.
How long do England need? They may get a short blast here.
Well, they dropped a bowler for an allrounder. Cometh the moment….
This is the best for the moment!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTdHQ065A_o
Sorry all.
Another good one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyTa_gJkYwI
Been There says:
Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 11:52 pm
Sorry all.
Another good one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyTa_gJkYwI
………………………………………………………………………………………….
As Stepoe’s son Harold would say, Verrrry Nice !
Tony Bennet aside, Lady Gaga has pretty good voice don’t you think?
Cheers 98.6!
On travel to the US. Never thought I’d go there as many other places in the world were a priority but then my circumstances changed and I’ve just booked my 4th trip which will be the 4th in 6 years and but for the pandemic would be the 5th.
It’s bloody brilliant from North to South, East to West. Not for a moment I’ve been there have I been worried. Some of the best country I’ve ever seen with spectacular scenery. People are very very friendly.
Unfortunately it’s more likely that a US school student than an Aussie tourist will get into a random shooting event.
I’d worry no more than travelling anywhere in the big wide world which I’ve also done. The US is great. Just from my own experience…