Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 30, Greens 11 (open thread)

More thin gruel for honeymoon-is-over narratives, this time from Resolve Strategic.

The latest Resolve Strategic poll from the Age/Herald records no changes of consequence since the last such poll five weeks ago. Maintaining the pollster’s recent form as the strongest for Labor, it finds Labor down one on the primary vote to 39%, the Coalition steady on 30%, the Greens down one to 11% and One Nation steady on 6%. Based on preferences flows at the 2022 federal election, this would produce a two-party preferred of around 59-41 to Labor, compared with around 60-40 last time. Breakdowns for the three biggest states suggest Labor leads of around 58-42 in New South Wales, 63.5-36.5 in Victoria and 53.5-46.5 in Queensland.

Personal ratings find Anthony Albanese down slightly on both approval and disapproval, by two to 51% and one to 34%, while Peter Dutton is up three on approval to 31% and down one on disapproval to 47%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Albanese’s lead nudging from 53-22 to 51-21. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1610. If the pollster and its publisher maintain their recent pattern, it should followed over the next day or two by a Victorian state poll.

UPDATE: Further questions on the poll encompass attitudes to immigration, with the headline finding that 59% think the current rate too high, 25% about right and 3% too low.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,756 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 30, Greens 11 (open thread)”

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  1. “… this would produce a two-party preferred of around 59-41 to Labor …”

    “Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Albanese’s lead … 51-21.”

    But … but … Simon says “Labor support takes a hip-pocket hit, falls to post-election low”.

  3. “Breakdowns … suggest … 53.5-46.5 in Queensland.”

    The Fadden sample-of-one didn’t bear out the polling picture of a big turnaround in Labor’s support in Queensland … but of course that’s just one of 30 divisions, each with its own idiosyncrasies.

    I guess we’ll know for sure in 2025.

  4. Joshua Black @Joshua_Black97

    Today’s random archival find: Pierre Trudeau thanking Gough and Margaret Whitlam for little Justin’s new toy koala, 1973

  7. [I put this on the last thread, but here it is for the new thread as well]

    PLEASE READ THIS AP REPORT ON RUSSIA’S MASS ABUSE OF UKRAINIAN CIVILIANS IN OCCUPIED TERRITORIES:

    “ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine (AP) — The Ukrainian civilians woke long before dawn in the bitter cold, lined up for the single toilet and were loaded at gunpoint into the livestock trailer. They spent the next 12 hours or more digging trenches on the front lines for Russian soldiers.

    Many were forced to wear overlarge Russian military uniforms that could make them a target, and a former city administrator trudged around in boots five sizes too big. By the end of the day, their hands curled into icy claws.

    Nearby, in the occupied region of Zaporizhzhia, other Ukrainian civilians dug mass graves into the frozen ground for fellow prisoners who had not survived. One man who refused to dig was shot on the spot — yet another body for the grave.

    Thousands of Ukrainian civilians are being detained across Russia and the Ukrainian territories it occupies, in centers ranging from brand-new wings in Russian prisons to clammy basements. Most have no status under Russian law.

    And Russia is planning to hold possibly thousands more. A Russian government document obtained by The Associated Press dating to January outlined plans to create 25 new prison colonies and six other detention centers in occupied Ukraine by 2026.

    In addition, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree in May allowing Russia to send people from territories with martial law, which includes all of occupied Ukraine, to those without, such as Russia. This makes it easier to deport Ukrainians who resist Russian occupation deep into Russia indefinitely, which has happened in multiple cases documented by the AP.

    Many civilians are picked up for alleged transgressions as minor as speaking Ukrainian or simply being a young man in an occupied region, and are often held without charge. Others are charged as terrorists, combatants, or people who “resist the special military operation.” Hundreds are used for slave labor by Russia’s military, for digging trenches and other fortifications, as well as mass graves.

    Torture is routine, including repeated electrical shocks, beatings that crack skulls and fracture ribs, and simulated suffocation. Many former prisoners told the AP they witnessed deaths. A United Nations report from late June documented 77 summary executions of civilian captives and the death of one man due to torture.

    Russia does not acknowledge holding civilians at all, let alone its reasons for doing so. But the prisoners serve as future bargaining chips in exchanges for Russian soldiers, and the U.N. has said there is evidence of civilians being used as human shields near the front lines…”

    https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-prisons-civilians-torture-detainees-88b4abf2efbf383272eed9378be13c72

    There is much more to this article. It truly makes the blood boil to read about it. There is no way this Russia can be allowed back into the community of civilised nations.

  8. “The UN secretary general, António Guterres has said he deeply regrets Russia’s decision to terminate the Black Sea grain deal, saying hundreds of millions of people facing hunger as well as hard-pressed consumers will pay the price for the Kremlin’s move.

    The deal was designed to alleviate a food crisis sparked by a Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports that had frozen millions of tonnes of grain exports around the world, much of it to developing countries.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/17/russia-decision-not-extend-black-sea-grain-deal-final

    Russia wants millions to starve, unless they are allowed to conquer Ukraine and still get to make tonnes of money.

  9. “Australian government spending on big four consultancy firms up 1,270% in a decade, analysis shows”

    “In 2012 the federal government spent $44m on these services, which include audits, project management and strategic advice. In the last financial year the bureaucracy spent $605m …”

    Hmm, did something happen in federal government after 2012?

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/17/australian-government-spending-big-four-consultancy-firms

  11. P1 from last thread

    According to our constitution Australia was empty.

    Which section of the constitution says that?

  12. Who knows, there may have been a swing of 7.5% to Labor in Queensland since the 2022 election……..but if so, I have some spare non fungible tokens on sale. I live here and maybe the Government has held its own and gained a ‘bit’ from a low base but that’s about the extent of it.

  13. “Support for the government also softened over the last month amid growing voter pessimism about the state of the economy and a fractious debate on the Indigenous Voice, but it retains an election-winning primary vote lead.
    … 50 per cent of people nominated the cost of living (inequality, poverty, infrastructure in general, such as comms – anyone not remember the [New Labour, centrist to right] ALP as architects and LN(C)P as builders of Nbnco besides school halls and pink batts … [presumably why Airbus … Albo is more incrementalist and less blue sky/ visionary], energy, housing, regional development, transport, water …) as the most important policy issue for them.
    Health and aged care (11 per cent), and economic management and the environment and climate change (both 8 per cent) were the next most pressing topics.”
    Neither subs, though I suppose it could be argued the photo-ops without follow ups the previous fed gov to 2022 took care of?
    Nor an Ersatz NACC/ fICAC/ CIC either.
    Perhaps campaign finance reform, useful FoI will go further, unlike mandatory and binding referendums … say war powers/ republic/ monarchy/ flag.
    And then instead of progressing cosmopolitan/ multi-cultural Australia there’s the regression to the pollyTICs of white and black.
    As if some pigs are more equal …

  14. Historyintimesays:
    Tuesday, July 18, 2023 at 6:22 am
    “Who knows, there may have been a swing of 7.5% to Labor in Queensland since the 2022 election……..but if so, I have some spare non fungible tokens on sale. I live here and maybe the Government has held its own and gained a ‘bit’ from a low base but that’s about the extent of it.”

    You’re being a bit Tokenistic there !

  15. maybi labor needs to get rid of its weaker qld mps and replace them with tallent mayybi labor needs to get rid of its long serving qld mps and replace them with tallint

  16. Morning all. In the Solomons PM Sogavare has returned from China repeating Chinese talking points verbatim.
    “ The narrow and coercive diplomatic approach of targeting China-Solomon Islands relations, and I want to use this word, is unneighbourly … This is nothing but interference of foreign states in the internal affairs of Solomon Islands,” he said.

    “China has not invaded or colonised any other nation-state. Australia and the United States should not fear China’s police support.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/17/china-to-fill-the-gap-in-solomon-islands-budget-as-pm-blasts-unneighbourly-australia-and-us

    These are of course lies. Labor has increased aide despite Sogavare not detailing the China policing deal. Australia has not been coercive, but may need to state that aide will stop if this keeps up. (Sogavare and Morrison are both pentecostals. Just a coincidence. Two great blokes.)

    This is why Australia needs Radio Australia funded and broadcasting into Pacific Islands. PMs like Sogavare survive through misinformation.

  18. OS: Constitution

    I provided plenty of links on the previous page. You should have read them. The Australian constitutions validity for existence is undermined by its creation as an act of British Parliament. It requires Terra Nullius for its justification.

    https://aiatsis.gov.au/explore/mabo-case

    The decision

    On 3 June 1992, six of the seven High Court judges upheld the claim and ruled that the lands of this continent were not terra nullius or ‘land belonging to no-one’ when European settlement occurred, and that the Meriam people were ‘entitled as against the whole world to possession, occupation, use and enjoyment of (most of) the lands of the Murray Islands’.

    In Mabo v. Queensland (No. 2), judgments of the High Court inserted the legal doctrine of native title into Australian law. The High Court recognised the fact that Indigenous peoples had lived in Australia for thousands of years and enjoyed rights to their land according to their own laws and customs. They had been dispossessed of their lands piece by piece as the colony grew and that very dispossession underwrote the development of Australia as a nation.

    The new doctrine of native title replaced a seventeenth century doctrine of terra nullius on which British claims to possession of Australia were justified on a wrongful legal presumption that Indigenous peoples had no settled law governing occupation and use of lands. In recognising that Indigenous peoples in Australia had prior rights to land, the Court held that these rights, where they exist today, will have the protection of the Australian law until those rights are legally extinguished.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/-/media/05_About_Parliament/52_Sen/523_PPP/2023_Australian_Constitution.pdf?la=en&hash=D9117474455DBD5DDAA61E699329B64A598291C1

    (xxxi) the acquisition of property on just terms from any State or person for any purpose in respect of which the Parliament has power to make laws

  21. Aaron newton says:
    “maybi labor needs to get rid of its weaker qld mps”

    There are not that many to get rid of. 😉

  23. “maybi labor needs to get rid of its weaker qld mps and replace them with tallent mayybi labor needs to get rid of its long serving qld mps and replace them with tallint”

    @Aaron newton

    I’ve seen you crap on with this argument before. Getting rid of Labor incumbents such as Graham Perrett and Shayne Neumann is not going deliver Labor a bagful of seats in Queensland. Weaker I assume your meaning because they don’t have a minstery. Ofcourse you disregard they have held on to their seats in some tough federal elections in Queensland for Labor. And Labors job would have been harder if they had not recontested.

  25. Preview of Bowen’s speech to the Australian Clean Energy Summit today:

    “Scott Morrison was a terrible prime minister for climate change. I say to you deliberately and soberly, Peter Dutton would be worse.”

    “Even worse than Dutton is the cabal of climate denial that runs policy in the federal opposition.”

    “[All that makes Dutton] the alternative prime minister from the alt right”

    (Guardian blog)

  27. Enough Already @ #7 Tuesday, July 18th, 2023 – 5:38 am

    It truly makes the blood boil to read about it. There is no way this Russia can be allowed back into the community of civilised nations.

    Appalling. Worse than the the My Lai massacre, maybe. Or the Waterloo Creek Massacre, or the Coniston Massacre. And they call themselves civilised!

  31. Shifting goal posts
    You said:
    According to our constitution Australia was empty.

    Terra Nullius was a policy implemented by the early NSW governors and reversed by Mabo. It makes no appearance in the Australian constitution.

  32. yabba @ Tuesday, July 18, 2023 at 8:22 am:

    “Enough Already @ #7 Tuesday, July 18th, 2023 – 5:38 am

    It truly makes the blood boil to read about it. There is no way this Russia can be allowed back into the community of civilised nations.
    Appalling. Worse than the the My Lai massacre, maybe. Or the Waterloo Creek Massacre, or the Coniston Massacre. And they call themselves civilised!”
    ================

    Gabba, this is why it is naive at best to urge Kyiv to consign 20% (or any %) of its land and the Ukrainian civilians who reside there to Moscow in any ‘peace deal’. Look what those people are being consigned to.

  33. Again:

    OC, explain Mabo in your words, and how the High Court had jurisdiction to make its decision.

    From your answer it’s clear you haven’t read anything about this subject. I provided links yesterday which directly contradict that statement you just made about NSW governors. You should read them and expand your knowledge. Basically, you’re now just making shit up.

  35. “OC, explain Mabo in your words, and how the High Court had jurisdiction to make its decision.”

    I haven’t looked it up so I might be wrong on this, but wasn’t it the UK Parliament, and it just maintained that power through the Westminster Act and Australia Acts?

    As much as I think Mabo was a great and important decision, it fits pretty squarely in the court running amok chapter of book.

  36. Julian the Lesser is peeved with Bowen’s upcoming speech to the Australian Clean Energy Summit:

    “… instead of addressing the issue of power price rises, he’s gone out and attacked a series of parliamentary colleagues. I think that’s a shame and I think Australians want better from political leaders generally.”

    (Guardian blog)

    Meanwhile, the northern hemisphere boils for another week. Nothing to see here, hey Jules?

  37. Which section of the constitution declares Terra Nullius?
    Just give me the number.
    If it exists, it is scandalous and we need to remove it by referendum.

    Not all High Court decisions are constitutional questions and Eddie Mabo’s case was an appeal from lower courts on a point of common law, that aboriginal ownership of land could not be extinguished by the proclamations of the early NSW governors.

  38. Hartcher’s Red Alert fever dreams:

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/albanese-unlike-keating-believes-nato-ties-serve-australia-s-interests-20230717-p5doq7.html

    NATO has no place being part of a western attempt to superintend China.

    If we want a mutual defence alliance of likeminded democracies as a response to the rise of China, we should start with the resident ones in the South Pacific. America can be an auxiliary member if it wants, but should get tom be the tail that wags the dog. For Australia, an alliance with France, the corner stone of which would be a ten boat Barracuda SSN fleet, which we could starting building next year – and between Cherbourg and Adelaide – we could be punching them out at a rate of one boat per year with a decade – would provide as much deterrence as we could ever need.

  39. Obviously for much of its life the High Court’s power was subject to appeal to the UK, so it wasn’t the ‘Supreme Court’ that was in the UK.

    Not entirely:

    “In brief, appeals
    could go from the High Court in all cases except constitutional cases that
    raised so-called inter se questions, and they could also go direct from
    State Supreme Courts, although for practical reasons they were not
    likely to be in large numbers”

  40. OC: “Not all High Court decisions are constitutional questions”

    Of course they are.

    https://www.nla.gov.au/digital-classroom/senior-secondary/cook-and-pacific/cook-legend-and-legacy/challenging-terra

    “Terra nullius—meaning land belonging to no-one—was the legal concept used by the British government to justify the settlement of Australia.”

    Congratulations OC; you’ve almost reached a grade 10 understanding of civics. Links I provided last night. That. you. didn’t. read.

  42. OC

    To give Pi some wriggle room, he could be referring to Chapter III of the Constitution which establishes the judiciary….

  43. Gods this argument is boring. I hate cod law arguments between non lawyers (if either of you is a lawyer, oh dear).

    Terra nullius isn’t stated in the Constitution – Oakeshott is right.

    Australian law assumed terra nullius was true for decades until overturned in Mabo – which is I assume what Pi is actually getting at. But Pi, you should leave the snide comments about civics at home.

    If the Constitution said terra nullius the Court would have had no room to declare otherwise. The whole point of Mabo was to say actually terra nullius was just an incorrect assumption, and that under British law at the time (as inherited by the colony) and consistent with our Constitution, Australia had to be treated as conquered land with local land rights respected to the extent they are not already overridden by local laws. It was a very clever decision but also ironclad.

  44. sprocket, wiggle room? What other justification can I have for questioning jurisdiction?

    OC, explain Mabo in your words, and how the High Court had jurisdiction to make its decision.

    Arky, the whole point of Mabo was the recognition that crown land isn’t crown land if someone else owns it, according to our own laws. And you’re not allowed to take shit that ain’t yours.

  45. If Terra Nullius was written into the Australian Constitution, the decision in Mabo would not have been possible without a referendum.

  46. Sprocket
    I think this can be the only possible wriggle area, as tortured as it is.

    But that means I can now argue that the constitution enshrines the innocence of George Pell

    I would accept the “vibe” argument.

  47. “To give Pi some wriggle room, he could be referring to Chapter III of the Constitution which establishes the judiciary….”

    But even then terra nullius comes from the UK not the constitution.

    There seems to be a bit of confusion around the role of the Australian Constitution, UK Parliament and an independent Australia following the Australia Acts in 1986.

  49. Shogun @ #284 Monday, July 17th, 2023 – 10:12 pm

    Nicholas
    In Australia the Australian Labor Party (a centre-right party)

    No – the Australian Labor Party is a centre-left party.

    You must be a Green. The Greens believe they are centre left. The Greens are not centre-left. They are far-left.

    You are both correct. The ALP is a centre-left party with centre-right policies.

  50. UK Poll Via @Survation , 7-9 Jul. Changes w/ 30 Jun – 2 Jul.

    LAB: 46% (+1)
    CON: 28% (-2)
    LDM: 12% (+1)
    RFM: 4% (+1)
    SNP: 3% (=)
    GRN: 3% (=)

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