Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)

After a respectable result in Fadden, no further cheer for the Coalition from the latest Newspoll.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 55-45, out from 54-46 three weeks ago, despite a two-point drop on the primary vote to 36%. The primary votes overall suggest the two-party movement can’t have amounted to much before rounding, with the Coalition down one to 34%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation up one to 7%. Anthony Albanese is steady on 52% approval and down one on disapproval to 41%, while Peter Dutton is down two on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 49%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister widens from 52-32 to 54-29. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1570.

UPDATE: Newspoll also has a question on the Indigenous Voice which finds support down two since three weeks ago to 41% and opposition up one to 48%, with undecided up one to 11%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

321 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Andrew Bolt
    Albo’s honeymoon as PM is finally over

    Anthony Albanese just had his worst week as Prime Minister. Losing the Fadden by-election shows he’s in danger and voters are switching off his crusades.

    Ahh good old bolte didn’t last a day …..this

  2. Good ol’ Simon Benson delivering for his boss:

    Hip-pocket hit as Labor tumbles to post-poll low
    Popular support for Labor has fallen to its lowest level nationally since the 2022 election as the cost-of-living crisis begins to bite.
    20 MINUTES AGO By SIMON BENSON

  3. And another unattributed article under Benson’s

    Newspoll delivers an electoral pox on both houses
    The honeymoon is officially over. Voters are souring on the ­Albanese government as cost-of-living concerns go unanswered.

  4. Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham · 13m #Newspoll

    Albanese netsat +11 (+1, 52-41)
    Dutton netsat -13 (-2, 36-49)
    Albanese leads 54-29 as Better PM (lead up 5, 54-29)

    All politicians pray for their honeymoons to be this over.

  5. citizensays:
    Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 9:53 pm
    Good ol’ Simon Benson delivering for his boss:
    _______________
    Almost impressive in it’s obliqueness.

  6. Albanese must be wracked with the anxiety about his support plummeting to numbers that would see him reelected in a landslide.

  7. From previous thread.
    clem attleesays:
    Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 9:33 pm
    It’s pretty clear that the Noms on this board would prefer a Tory victory, rather than a true leftist win anywhere. They are as fearful of real change as the chinless wonders of the Coalition. Got to protect those rents and all.
    ============================================================

    Nailed it there Clem!

  8. The result actually looks like Labor has improved its position. A small increase in 2PP of 1%, within the margin on error ~2.5%. Basically a status quo result, like yesterday’s by-election.

    The primaries are Labor 36, Coalition 34, None of the Above 30. Nearly two thirds of “none of the above” prefer Labor. Does the Australian article mention that?


  9. nathsays:
    Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 9:57 pm
    citizensays:
    Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 9:53 pm
    Good ol’ Simon Benson delivering for his boss:
    _______________
    Almost impressive in it’s obliqueness.

    Can you clarify further?


  10. Steve777says:
    Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 10:10 pm
    The result actually looks like Labor has improved its position. A small increase in 2PP of 1%, within the margin on error ~2.5%. Basically a status quo result, like yesterday’s by-election.

    The primaries are Labor 36, Coalition 34, None of the Above 30. Nearly two thirds of “none of the above” prefer Labor. Does the Australian article mention that?

    Not on your nelly.

  11. I assume they would have asked their voice question at the same time but are holding the results until Tuesday to get 2 headlines.

  12. “ The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 55-45, out from 54-46 three weeks ago, despite a two-point drop on the primary vote to 36%.”

    As I said, a -2% swing in a bi-election is not a bad result, especially in an arch-conservative seat.

    I was going to say this should shut the critics up, but it won’t.
    If they had any shame they would be eating their words, but they don’t.

  13. Ship sailing steady, all settings for a better future for the country in place.

    Well done our elected Labor government!

    Continue as normal!

    A1? No!

    Just me, Been There.

  14. Newspoll also has a question on the Indigenous Voice which finds support down two since three weeks ago to 41% and opposition up one to 48%, with undecided up one to 11%.

  15. William Bowesays:
    Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 10:45 pm
    Newspoll also has a question on the Indigenous Voice which finds support down two since three weeks ago to 41% and opposition up one to 48%, with undecided up one to 11%.
    ======================================================================
    This is not looking good.
    First Nations person here.
    What is going wrong?
    Is this Alabama or Australia?
    Something wrong with this country!!!


  16. William Bowesays:
    Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 10:45 pm
    Newspoll also has a question on the Indigenous Voice which finds support down two since three weeks ago to 41% and opposition up one to 48%, with undecided up one to 11%.

    Gonski!

  17. Charlie Teo and supporters are planning a march across the Harbour Bridge to end his effective deregistration.

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=DTWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailytelegraph.com.au%2Fnews%2Fnsw%2Fthis-is-really-happening-charlie-teos-patients-shock-at-ruling%2Fnews-story%2F3bb46ef6c2b10195c2a10d302e90155d&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=dynamic-groupa-test-noscore&V21spcbehaviour=append

    In a message to his loyal supporters, Dr Teo said on Saturday: “Many have asked what you can do to show your support … Well, I would be honoured if you would join me in solidarity on the Sydney Harbour Bridge.”

    Dozens of former patients and families have already committed to the 3.5km walk across the bridge in September, since hearing the news in The Saturday Telegraph that Dr Teo had accepted work at three hospitals in China.

  18. Socrates says Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 10:34 pm

    As I said, a -2% swing in a bi-election is not a bad result, especially in an arch-conservative seat.

    I was going to say this should shut the critics up, but it won’t.
    If they had any shame they would be eating their words, but they don’t.

    Don’t discount the possibility that there might have been an anti Stuart Roberts factor in previous elections. Just having someone other than Roberts might have increased the LNP vote.

  19. Vensays:
    Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 10:57 pm

    William Bowesays:
    Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 10:45 pm
    Newspoll also has a question on the Indigenous Voice which finds support down two since three weeks ago to 41% and opposition up one to 48%, with undecided up one to 11%.

    Gonski!
    ===========================
    Gonski!
    So easy to say Ven, without thinking the consequences of your remark!!

    I’ve a strong feeling you are so wrong, so don’t be so flippant!

  20. BC

    True re Roberts. Either way, a 2% swing was never anything flash for the Liberals in a bi-election in one of their safest seats.

  21. @Been There:

    It’s a confluence of multiple factors:

    1) Australians’ general dislike of changing the Constitution (see the historical record for more data);

    2) Australians’ current precarity in their own circumstances making us less inclined to be generous/nice to others (It’s a lot easier to be magnanimous when your own situation is secure, after all);

    3) A well-resourced “No” campaign being run by the MSM, especially Rupert’s disgraceful mob;

    4) A particularly deceitful and negative campaign being put about by the Coalition, magnified by the MSM’s biased coverage as noted in (3) above; and

    5) Lack of clarity on what The Voice will actually, in practical terms, MEAN or DO. And yes, I know the wording is out there, but it’s bloody vague – I’ve read it. It doesn’t commit to having The Voice elected at all by Indigenous Australians, doesn’t specify what The Voice can or cannot do if instituted, or make clear its purpose beyond a vague “recognition” of Australia’s First Nations. Instead, Parliament – which is to say the Prime Minister – is asking for the power to make such decisions later. And Australians have never much liked giving politicians more power, but especially not now, when trust in public institutions is at/near all-time lows.

    In short: The Voice was always going to fight an uphill battle – and the Government’s vagueness about its form/purpose/details hasn’t helped one bit.

  22. Charlie Teo….ah..not going there.

    Why would someone even bring this up on this site knowing the potential consequences?

    Tell you what Oakeshott Country, I’ll be walking in the opposite direction to your march if it happens!

    I’m sure there will be many with me!

  23. The Tories are still ahead.

    The Labor Party are Tories. The Liberal Party are also Tories but also far-right near-fascists at the same time.

    We are ALL Howard aspirationalists now.

  24. There was a lot of discussion about concerns over AUKUS earlier today on the other thread. I expressed concern about the credibility of the UK’s role in AUKUS, not USA’s. I suggested we would be better off switching to FAUST – France, Australia and USA.

    The UK has just completed its own inquiry into its own defence procurement and finds – its broken. Slow, bureaucratic and costly. So why are we joining them in AUKUS?
    https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/40911/documents/199247/default/

    The Type 26 frigate (basis of Hunter frigate design) is cited as one of the examples they review. It is years late. The design was first commissioned in 2010 and is years late, creating the RN’s own risk of a “capability gap”.

    And which foreign naval procurement agencies do they cite as efficient? France, USA and Israel.

  25. @Socrates: My problem with AUKUS is the sheer bill. $384bn….even over a 40-year development & operational lifespan, that’s still $9bn+ p.a. – or a 20% boost to the Defence budget. All on submarines, no consultation or oversight sought or permitted. What happens when some boffin decides Australia “needs” a hundred latest-n-greatest aircraft? Or a carrier or three?

    Bascially, we’ve been sold a bill of goods – at top guilder, no less.

  26. MelbourneMammothsays:
    Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 11:26 pm
    The Tories are still ahead.

    The Labor Party are Tories. The Liberal Party are also Tories but also far-right near-fascists at the same time.

    We are ALL Howard aspirationalists now.
    =================================================================

    Good try!

    Go to the far queue!

    Yes, that one over there>>>>!

  27. Matt

    I agree. I never agreed with the AUKUS choice of SSN or price. We could have built the French SSNs sooner and for less than half of that cost probably still over $100 billion but far less than $368 billion. And as you correctly point out, the difference would cover the cost of more RAAF F35s, IFVs for the army, all without risking a gap.

    The two elements of AUKUS worth keeping are the supply of 3 US Virginias to avoid a gap, and crew training for SSNs, which is essential for any option.

    We should also drop the Hunter frigates ASAP to go back to building more AWDs and their successor frigate. No delay, cheaper, able to be built here and meets our needs. The navy continually ropes us into costly development programs for the world’s greatest warships, which we then cannot afford to build in realistic numbers.

  28. I got an official Yes vote leaflet over the weekend, just a load of vague motherhood statements without any clarity as to how the Voice would be elected or operate.
    No wonder No is winning by a country mile when the Yes side’s advertising strategy is so mediocre. And poor old Linda Burney is not the ideal frontperson for that campaign.

  29. I really have to ask at this point, how in the world did the 1967 referendum on Indigenous Australians pass with over 90% voting yes?

    If this is the state of the electorate 56 years later, what kind of stars and planets aligned from back then that made over 90% of the country vote in that way as opposed to now where it seems more than half are furiously fighting against what seems to be a similar goal?

  30. Albo is losing political capital for a vague idea conceived sentimentally. Was the voice mentioned in the campaign? Create an admin council now Albo and save us all the pain. Throw refer in Duttons face perfect exit ramp. Whole thing too risky and for what? More stan grant?

  31. Evansays:
    Monday, July 17, 2023 at 12:36 am
    I got an official Yes vote leaflet over the weekend, just a load of vague motherhood statements without any clarity as to how the Voice would be elected or operate.
    No wonder No is winning by a country mile when the Yes side’s advertising strategy is so mediocre. And poor old Linda Burney is not the ideal frontperson for that campaign.
    ======================================================================
    An official Yes vote leaflet??

    From who??

    Evan?? More details??

    No more vague motherhood statements!!

  32. The Australian’s report saved the best to the final paragraph:

    “Mr Albanese lifted two points as preferred prime minister to 54 per cent while Mr Dutton dropped three points to 29 per cent.”

  33. ‘Labor … falls to post-election low’

    That’s what Simon says.

    • 2PP 55 – 45 (cf election 52 – 48)

    • Primary 36% (cf election 33%)

    • Preferred PM 54 – 29

    Falling upwards?

  34. The corrupt lib/nats and propaganda media units, may have to accept their combined primary vote peak is likely 35/36%

  35. Today’s moronic letter to the editor in Monday’s Age

    A victory for the Liberals
    Congratulations to Peter Dutton and his team in Queensland for the byelection result in Fadden. It is very good news and shows that Australians are beginning to wonder about the Albanese government and what it is doing.
    Diana Goetz, Mornington

    Clearly been hiding under a rock over the last few weeks Diana?

  36. And a suitable response to Diana by George of Mitcham.

    That there was a swing to the LNP in Fadden, despite its illegal use of robo-debt when in power with Stuart Robert, says more about the voters than anything else.

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