The reliable Essential Research has published its regular fortnightly poll, featuring federal voting intention numbers which, inclusive of a 5% undecided component (down one), have the Coalition up two points on the primary vote to draw level with an unchanged Labor on 32%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure is nonetheless steady at 52% for Labor and 42% for the Coalition, presumably reflecting better preference flow for Labor than last time (UPDATE: It seems the Essential Research chart display is misfiring – for me, at least – by not extending to the latest numbers, which actually have Labor down a point to 51% and the Coalition up two to 44%), with the vagaries of rounding pushing undecided up a point to 6%. The Greens are unchanged at 14%, while One Nation is up one to 8%, the upper limit of their range through the current term.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from double its usual sample size at 2248 respondents, presumably to add extra muscle to state breakdowns from a question on the Indigenous Voice, which is framed around the wording to be used in the referendum. This records the yes vote at 47% nationally with no at 43%, with state breakdowns showing yes well in the clear in Victoria (48% to 39%) and South Australia (49% to 38%), well behind in Queensland (42% to 50%), and statistically tied in New South Wales (45% to 44% in favour of yes) and Western Australia (49% to 47% in favour of yes).
Interesting bit of speculation in the Guardian. Obviously Chalmers is being very careful to do everything by the book.
Peter Dutton and his cronies will have to come out of hiding sooner than later
Mike Lindell forced to sell off MyPillow assets as his Big Lie keeps shrinking
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/11/2180487/-Mike-Lindell-forced-to-sell-off-MyPillow-assets-as-his-Big-Lie-keeps-shrinking
The (Minneapolis) Star Tribune:
“Major retailers such as Walmart, Bed Bath & Beyond and Slumberland Furniture all said they will no longer sell MyPillow products as Lindell continues to falsely claim that the 2020 election was stolen from former President Donald Trump.
“It was a massive, massive cancellation,” Lindell said in a phone interview Monday. “We lost $100 million from attacks by the box stores, the shopping networks, the shopping channels, all of them did cancel culture on us.”
…
Lindell has not backed down from his assertions that there was something wrong with the 2020 election and its results. He said he plans to host an event next month detailing a new way to hold elections.”
https://m.startribune.com/mypillow-is-auctioning-off-equipment-after-losing-many-retailers-mike-lindell-minn-2020-election/600288705/?refresh=true&clmob=y&c=n&clmob=y&c=n
“World’s biggest economies in 2075, projected by Goldman Sachs:”
Hilarious
You reckon in 1971 predictions for 2023 would have been any good?
Predictions in 2001 for 2023 wouldn’t have been much good….
This sort of thing is just put out to gain publicity for Goldman.
”
nathsays:
Wednesday, July 12, 2023 at 9:50 am
C@t thinks she’s a bigger Labor icon than PJK. And among the stooges she’s probably right.
”
No not the above when I posted “here comes nath”@9:35am. 🙂
”
Arkysays:
Wednesday, July 12, 2023 at 10:00 am
“World’s biggest economies in 2075, projected by Goldman Sachs:”
Hilarious
You reckon in 1971 predictions for 2023 would have been any good?
Predictions in 2001 for 2023 wouldn’t have been much good….
This sort of thing is just put out to gain publicity for Goldman.
”
True.
Actually they have ruined economies of many countries like Soros. Prime example being Greece.
Names like Goldman Sachs, PwC and Exxon should send shivers down your spine.
From the Guardian:
“Australia’s drug habits revealed
Here are Australia’s drug-habits, broken down by city, courtesy of the latest national wastewater drug monitoring report from the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission and AAP:
Sydneysiders consumed the most cocaine, MDMA and nicotine.
Melburnians consumed the most heroin, fentanyl and ketamine.”
You go Melbourne. We even do drugs harder than Sydney!
”
DeSantis was so busy out-Trumping Trump that he killed his campaign
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/11/2180435/-DeSantis-hard-right-tack-is-also-his-anchor
”
“Some pundits and Republican strategists are advocating a strategy that the DeSantis camp itself has already embraced: run to the right of Trump—it’s the only way.
The hateful yet weirdly homoerotic anti-LGBTQ video shared by Team DeSantis last week on Twitter epitomized the entire strategy. Pick an already disenfranchised group—in this case transgender Americans, whom MAGA cultists freakishly believe are ruining their lives—and then unleash a heinous attack on them to prove you don’t possess a shred of human decency. Bonus points for courting deeply disturbed misanthropes such as incels in the process.
As governor, DeSantis has deployed his fascist savagery on every disenfranchised minority he can locate, duping vulnerable migrants into being flown to Martha’s Vineyard, outlawing any mention of gay or transgender individuals in K-12 educational settings, and empowering books bans in school libraries on any material any parent finds objectionable (e.g., books covering Black, brown, and LGBTQ+ people and sexual themes, among others).
DeSantis also moved to the right of his chief rival Donald Trump—whom he continues to trail in national polls by some 30 points—on abortion. In evangelical-laden Iowa, DeSantis is playing up his anti-abortion bona fides after signing a near-total six-week abortion ban (despite the fact that he buried it in the dead of night). “
I suppose after the Anthropocene comes the Chatbotocene.
Ces’t la Vie.
Late Riser @ Wednesday, July 12, 2023 at 8:57 am:
==============
LR, my quick take is very similar to yours: some bones have been thrown to Ukraine, rather than the meat which Sweden and Finland have received since Russia invaded Ukraine.
I would add to your list of Ukrainian takeaways the formal waiving of NATO’s normal requirement for a MAP, but given they had waived this already for Finland and Sweden, it would have been an actual rebuff to Ukraine if they hadn’t.
What must anger President Zelenskyy, though, is that NATO has proved itself unable, even after observing Russian atrocities against Ukraine at close quarters for nearly 17 months, to offer Ukraine either a transparently measurable timetable for NATO accession post-war, or failing that, a dependable and enforceable security guarantee against future Russian aggression.
Overall, I am very disappointed in NATO’s effort here, given the sacrifices Ukraine has made to date to keep the rest of Europe safely shielded – so far – from autocratic Russian imperialist expansion, with all the human misery that entails.
”
Player Onesays:
Wednesday, July 12, 2023 at 10:16 am
I suppose after the Anthropocene comes the Chatbotocene.
Ces’t la Vie.
”
I don’t what Chatbotocene and ‘Ces’t la Vie’ but we are the only beings that know we are living in ‘Anthropocene’ epoch and not doing much to alter the course.
We are living like Dinosaurs although more “evolved” than dinosaurs.
The thing is Dinosaurs lived for millions of years before becoming extinct. Even the beings from which we were supposed to have evolved lived for hundreds of thousands of years. The previous Holocene epoch, which began 11,700 years ago as the last ice age ended, has ended.
Update:
But more impressive, from a modern moviegoer’s perspective, than the specifics of how Planet of the Apes ends—with astronaut Colonel Taylor (Charlton Heston) slamming his fists into the sand, shrieking, “You maniacs! You blew it up! Damn you!”
“Avi Loeb claimed that ‘Oumuamua (1I/2017 U1) was alien technology …”
Surely ‘oumuamua’ was created by Russell Morris and Molly Meldrum in Armstrong Studios in 1969?
https://youtu.be/WDel7m72iJU
Thanks, BK
There are alien life forms that are advanced enough to send space craft to Earth. For some reason their technology is advanced enough to get here but not advanced enough to land safely. Consequently, the alien space craft always crash. Also, they never crash in a densely populated area with thousands of witnesses. They always crash in a corn field or a desert or some other remote location. We are trying to figure out why.
― Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy
”
Nicholassays:
Wednesday, July 12, 2023 at 10:39 am
There are alien life forms that are advanced enough to send space craft to Earth. For some reason their technology is advanced enough to get here but not advanced enough to land safely. Consequently, the alien space craft always crash. Also, they never crash in a densely populated area with thousands of witnesses. They always crash in a corn field or a desert or some other remote location. We are trying to figure out why.
”
And they crash in USA. I am trying to figure out why. 🙂
Thanks for the roundup BK. Looks like my concerns over probable Robodebt compo costs are not overblown. It will be billions. Maybe Fadden voters will care about that?
I have to agree with Enough Already- the NATO summit outcomes are underwhelming. There is no sign of anything significant and new. I wonder what arm twisting is going on behind the scenes?
I am pleased Albo did not cave in on the EU trade deal. “Free” trade deals do not always help if the concessions are one way. The one Howard signed with USA in the early 2000s gained us nothing, and merely sealed the death of the auto component industry here.
“Too expensive and slow”
Probably never been a more apt campaign slogan for the current federal coalition.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/11/nuclear-power-too-expensive-and-slow-to-be-part-of-australias-plans-to-reach-net-zero-study-finds
Democratic HORs Maxwell Frost, Robert Garcia jump on the ‘Barbie’ train, float congressional screening
https://thehill-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/4090757-maxwell-frost-robert-garcia-jump-on-the-barbie-train-float-congressional-screening/amp/?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16891162085848&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fthehill.com%2Fblogs%2Fin-the-know%2F4090757-maxwell-frost-robert-garcia-jump-on-the-barbie-train-float-congressional-screening%2F
”
In a Monday tweet, Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.) wondered aloud, “How do we get a Barbie Blowout Screening at the Library of Congress or something?”
The Library of Congress didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment from ITK on Frost’s “Barbie” pitch. But it does appear to have at least one connection to the iconic toy.
A 1989 Washington Post story detailed how the library had a warehouse in its U.S. Copyright Office that was located “miles from the library’s hushed, oak-paneled main reading room on Capitol Hill.“ At least at the time, part of the collection stored in the warehouse — which the Post dubbed “kitsch heaven” — included Barbie dolls.
Frost’s “Barbie” viewing plea immediately drew some support from at least one colleague in Congress.
“I’m in bro,” Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) replied.
“Come on Barbie let’s go party,” Garcia added, in a nod to a line from the 1997 Aqua hit song.
Socrates @ #12 Wednesday, July 12th, 2023 – 7:24 am
Who values lives so cheaply?
I swear there are alien life forms on this blog. There’s a few who certainly aren’t tethered to reality. They sound like they flew in from another world. 😐
Soc: “Looks like my concerns over probable Robodebt compo costs are not overblown. It will be billions. Maybe Fadden voters will care about that?”
On the evidence of the vox pop on ABC’s AM this morning … not so much. 🙁
Oliver Sutton at 6:17 am,
Having seen the insides of this – not directly involved though – the team did a very good job, but there are some significant holes. Here isn’t the place to critique it in detail.
However, I hope that it contributes to the debate by pointing out just how great the challenge of deploying massive amounts of renewables will be. The land and raw resource requirements are enormous.
Then there is CCUS assumptions. Goodness me.
Oliver Sutton at 6:17 am,
Having seen the insides of this – not directly involved though – the team did a very good job, but there are some significant holes. Here isn’t the place to critique it in detail.
However, I hope that it contributes to the debate by pointing out just how great the challenge of deploying massive amounts of renewables will be. The land and raw resource requirements are enormous.
Then there is CCUS assumptions. Goodness me.
Ven @ Wednesday, July 12, 2023 at 10:43 am:
”
Nicholassays:
Wednesday, July 12, 2023 at 10:39 am
There are alien life forms that are advanced enough to send space craft to Earth. For some reason their technology is advanced enough to get here but not advanced enough to land safely. Consequently, the alien space craft always crash. Also, they never crash in a densely populated area with thousands of witnesses. They always crash in a corn field or a desert or some other remote location. We are trying to figure out why.
”
And they crash in USA. I am trying to figure out why. ”
===============
They’ll blend in better.
The legal academics start with posing a question, bypass matters relevant to the answers and end up as advocates.
https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-the-tort-of-misfeasance-and-how-might-it-apply-in-the-case-of-robodebt-209507
Anyone advising potential claimants will need to address the following issues:
(a) are the claims barred by the earlier settlements;
(b) how are matters proved when the Commission’s findings are not evidence and the use of evidence before the Commission may be restricted;
(c) what is the Cth’s appetite to defend claims but mindful (ironically) that the Cth should act in accordance with its legal obligations which include not paying out afresh settled claims?
UFO’s don’t always appear in rural areas:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westall_UFO
ShellBell
The RoboDebt settlements were by the Cth, but instructed by the previous government.
The new government may have a different view on compensation, and in seeing this issue and it’s blame attribution stretched out
Oliver Sutton says:
Wednesday, July 12, 2023 at 11:03 am
Soc: “Looks like my concerns over probable Robodebt compo costs are not overblown. It will be billions. Maybe Fadden voters will care about that?”
On the evidence of the vox pop on ABC’s AM this morning … not so much.
_______________________________________
People on this site (Taylormade aside) are rightly focussed on the incredible pain and psychological damage imposed on Australian people, many of whom are the most vulnerable in our society.
Unfortunately, the general public tends to care a lot less than us. Decades of largely conservative governments have made “dole bludging” and the like red hot issues for working Australians (often those on the lowest and most fragile incomes) who have been convinced by the Morrisons and Hadleys of the world that there is a huge bunch of people out there getting paid the same money for sitting on their arses. These welfare recipients are more despised than the undeserving rich who try to pay as little tax as possible.
It took a long time to get to this point from the 1940s and 1950s where assisting the most vulnerable and unfortunate was a recognised, even desired, role of government. It will take a long time to turn that around again and will have to be done subtly.
In the meantime I think the best political use the government can make of the Robodebt scandal is to promote the incredible waste of money by the Coalition. They spent a fortune chasing people who did not have a debt and who had not been cheats. I think that will help sheet home the blame far more effectively, as well as starting to change the notion (which I think the Coalition ministers collectively truly believed) that most people on welfare are ripping off “hard-working” Australians and need to be caught.
It would have been good for Labor at the Fadden by-election to highlight the financial waste that the current Government needs to clean up, rather than focus on the pain caused to ordinary people (as appalling as that is).
Oliver Sutton @ #4 Wednesday, July 12th, 2023 – 6:17 am
CCS always reminds me of this …
Russians singled out by Ukraine for their crimes can run, but they can’t hide…
“A senior Russian draft officer and former submarine commander accused by Ukraine of deadly strikes on its territory has been shot dead while jogging in the southern Russian city of Krasnodar.
Stanislav Rzhitsky, 42, was killed on Monday by an unidentified gunman during a morning run in a park near the Olimp sports centre, local police said.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/11/senior-russian-draft-officer-shot-dead-while-running-in-park
Absolutely, P1.
EA Snap
A disappointing day for Russian military leaders. As a result of the strike by the British Storm Shadow cruise missiles on the Russian command headquarters of the 58th Army in the Berdyansk region, the deputy commander of the Southern Military District, Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov, was killed.
And in addition to that:
“ A Russian naval captain who appeared on a Ukrainian blacklist of suspected war criminals was ambushed and executed by an assassin on his morning run. Stanislav Rzhitsky, 42, was shot four times in the back and chest with a Makarov pistol around 6am Monday in a park in the southern city of Krasnodar, Russian authorities have confirmed, reported the New York Post.
The killer could have tracked Rzhitsky’s movements in Krasnodar on an app where he posted details of his regular jogging route and how long he took to complete it, reported Baza, a Russian Telegram channel with ties to the security services.”
https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/russian-submarine-captain-on-ukraines-blacklist-killed-by-assassin-after-sharing-jogging-route-on-workout-app/news-story/36d14b86f500dc3be7aeb92efffad977
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, July 12, 2023 at 11:26 am
ShellBell
The RoboDebt settlements were by the Cth, but instructed by the previous government.
The new government may have a different view on compensation, and in seeing this issue and it’s blame attribution stretched out
___________________________________
Further to my last post, the Commonwealth should defend any actions of misfeasance, subject to model litigant requirements. Any early compensation payout would simply allow the Coalition to claim that Labor did a sweetheart deal and refer it all off to Nacc in a blaze of publicity. Just look at Linda Reynolds conduct towards Brittany Higgins!
I do wonder, though, whether the Commonwealth is actually liable, as opposed to the individuals who may be sued. The Commonwealth, of course, would pay for the defence of the individuals in the same way it would defend former ministers and public servants sued for conduct in the course of their work. But who would pay compensation?
Anyway, this stuff still has a long way to run. We’ll see what happens.
Ouch!
‘Kennett has called for public servants working from home to be paid less than frontline government employees like nurses who must attend their workplace everyday. …
Carroll said the Andrews government did “not take advice from Jeff Kennett”’
(Guardian blog)
Oliver Sutton says:
Wednesday, July 12, 2023 at 11:34 am
Ouch!
‘Kennett has called for public servants working from home to be paid less than frontline government employees like nurses who must attend their workplace everyday. …
Carroll said the Andrews government did “not take advice from Jeff Kennett”’
(Guardian blog)
_____________________________________
A timely reminder of why Victorians did not want a bar of him.
And they crash in USA. I am trying to figure out why.
_____
Ven
An early leader for the comment of the day.
On Sky. A moronic councillor from Albany W.A wants to remove a sister city relationship with a Chinese city because China could infiltrate Albany, via Albany Airport. Also Albany is the ‘Home of Anzac’ where ships were sent to Gallipoli….yeah….so…yeah
The Guardian has this snippet from the aftermath of the NATO Summit’s declaration:
“… Western leaders, however, remain keen to emphasise other forms of ongoing support to Ukraine. On Wednesday the G7 leading economies, including the UK, will commit to a framework of long-term security arrangements aimed at guaranteeing long-term weapons supply and economic support to Ukraine while the war continues…”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/11/zelenskiy-accuses-nato-of-lack-of-respect-over-ukraine-membership
The problem that leaps out from this is the lack of even a vague intention to extend such support after the war concludes. So, what security guarantee is NATO actually offering to Ukraine which would actually deter Russia from a having another go at conquest two, five, ten years after being pushed back this time?
As it stands, this declaration sees Ukraine no more secure from future Russian aggression than it was in February 2022.
“The Commonwealth public service has agreed to some of the most generous work from home rights in the country as part of a broader deal with the union to improve mobility, with no caps on WFH days, a bias towards approving requests and rights to appeal refusals.”
An employer of choice?
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/public-sector-agrees-to-uncapped-wfh-days-20230711-p5dnfv
AR
” If you said a million per wrongful death and $10k per financial victim, you are looking at $5 to $10 billion.
Who values lives so cheaply?”
I agree these values are low, and were the basis of multiplying out to get the $5 billion figure. I don’t expect actual compo values will be this low and so I suggested a range of $5 to $10 billion. Some Robodebt victims falsely paid out thousands but lost their homes in the process, so their claim will be a lot more than a few thousand. But that was my point – even making optimistic assumptions about settlement values, settling Robodebt is going to cost billions.
Nath wrote, “C@t thinks she’s a bigger Labor icon than PJK. And among the stooges she’s probably right.”
She is one of the main Kool Aid drinkers, that’s for sure. She would have been a very effective communist functionary through the 40’s and 50’s under Stalin. Comrade Stalin is always right, the Party is the only hope for the future of mankind…
“Ben Roberts-Smith … argues judge ‘cherry-picked’ evidence in defamation decision”
He’s gonna need a bigger Sugar Daddy.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/12/ben-roberts-smith-appeal-soldier-claims-judge-evidence
Stanislav Rzhitsky, 42, was killed on Monday by an unidentified gunman during a morning run in a park near the Olimp sports centre, local police said.”
######
@enough already
The genius kept putting his runs on Strava.
“Hi, I launch guided munitions against civilian targets and this is where I jog.”
Deutsche Welle has more on the Ukrainian reaction to NATO’s declaration at the Vilnius summit:
“… Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy voiced disappointment over the situation, saying it would be “absurd” if no time frame for membership were given.
“I traveled here today with belief in a decision, with belief in partners, with belief in a strong NATO, a NATO which does not doubt, which does not lose time,” he told a crowd of thousands of cheering, flag-waving Ukraine supporters in Vilnius alongside Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda.
Zelenskyy thanked Nauseda for Lithuania’s, “clear, honest and courageous position.”
Then the Ukrainian leader said, “every soldier expects… our every citizen, our every mother, our every child…” wants certainty from NATO, “is that too much to wish for?”
Olexander Scherba at Kyiv’s Foreign Ministry told DW that NATO’s position on Ukraine membership in recent years had been “one big lie,” saying that Ukraine was already “doing NATO’s job and defending Europe.””
https://www.dw.com/en/nato-summit-no-ukraine-entry-timeline-turkey-backs-sweden/a-66194681
I wholeheartedly concur with Scherba: Ukraine has been doing NATO’s job for it. I would go further and challenge anyone to offer a list of Hungarian contributions to European security against Russian imperialist aggression that comes anywhere near matching what Ukraine has done.
Not looking good for Teo:
Cronus and Jubb, that Russian missile-operator-cum-recruiting-officer chose a particularly arrogant way of trying to evade justice. Hard to hide when you’re drawing the target on your own back.
😆 😆 😆
On NATO membership for Ukraine, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda gets it:
“Nauseda has staunchly backed Ukraine, and Lithuania was the first NATO member to send Kyiv weapons before Russia’s February 24, 2022, invasion.
Speaking alongside Zelenskyy, he said, “Ukraine is buying us time with their blood, so we can prepare and give a strong retort to Russia.””
https://www.dw.com/en/nato-summit-no-ukraine-entry-timeline-turkey-backs-sweden/a-66194681
Enough Already @ #94 Wednesday, July 12th, 2023 – 12:30 pm
That’s all true, but also NATO agreeing to admit Ukraine while Ukraine is actively at war with Russia has always been extremely unlikely at the absolute best. Zelensky and Scherba need to be careful about how much disappointment they cast in that direction, lest it come off as disingenuous.
Creates a bit of a political problem for NATO though, as they’re basically giving Russia (or at least, NATO-hating Putin) a very public and pretty good excuse to stretch the war out indefinitely as a means of blocking Ukraine’s NATO ascension.
I bet the Greens will, with their parents the coalition, vote this down too,
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-12/second-offshore-wind-zone-announced-for-australia/102590380