Title aside, this post doesn’t actually have a huge amount to tell you about the budget, which is the reason for a polling drought this week — Newspoll, Resolve Strategic and Essential Research should all be conducting polling over the coming days to gauge response to the budget and its effect if any on voting intention, to arrive in a flood probably on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. All we have on the poll front is the usual light-on-detail weekly numbers from Roy Morgan, which have Labor’s two-party lead out to 54.5-44.5 after narrowing from 56.5-43.5 to 53.5-46.5 last week, from primary votes of 35.5% apiece for Labor (down half) and the Coalition (steady) and 12.5% (down half, so presumably the two-party movement comes off preference flows).
Other than that:
• The Australia Institute had a survey last week found 80% agreement that the budget should provide more spending on affordable housing, compared with 10% who disagreed, with only 25% considering the government’s proposed housing investment fund would provide enough of it, compared with 51% who disagreed. The survey was conducted from April 11 to 14 from a sample of 1002. Simon Welsh of RedBridge Group says the firm’s focus group research suggests the public has grown more empathetic following a pandemic that “broadened out our in-groups to include the vulnerable and the disadvantaged”, combined with “the rising influence of Millennial and Gen Z voters, with their high-levels of social progressiveness”. Together no doubt with the parlous state of conservative politics at present, this is feeding into “strong levels of support for policies/proposals like the Voice, NDIS funding, ‘raising the rate’ or restitution of single parent payments”.
• The Australian reports Fran Ward, founder of a charity supporting distressed farmers, has the support of Stuart Robert to succeed him as the Liberal National Party candidate at the imminent Fadden by-election, and is “seen as the front-runner”. Ward ran unsuccessfully to succeed Andrew Laming in Bowman at the last election and Steve Ciobo in Moncrieff in 2019. Also said to be considering a run is Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell, whom Fran Ward unsuccessfully challenged at the council election in 2016. The Australian added another name to the list yesterday in Dinesh Palipana, “Queensland’s first quadriplegic medical graduate, works as an emergency doctor at the Gold Coast University Hospital”. After an initial flurry of speculation, Amanda Stoker, who failed to win re-election to the Senate from third position on the party’s ticket last year, has ruled herself out. Peter Dutton appeared to scotch the possibility of Stoker on the weekend when he said a local would be preselected, suggesting a failure to do so was the principal lesson to be learned from the defeat in Aston.
• Notwithstanding Amanda Stoker’s residence in Brisbane, The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column related a fortnight ago that she was “sniffing around the Gold Coast” for a seat – the suggestion at the time being that she would seek to succeed Karen Andrews in McPherson when she retires at the next election. Others said to be in contention for McPherson were Ben Naday, a lawyer and rural fire brigade officer backed by Andrews, and Leon Rebello, solicitor for King & Wood Mallesons and former staffer to Julie Bishop as Foreign Minister.
• Also from Feeding the Chooks, a report that hard right Liberal National Party Senator Gerard Rennick has attracted a number of preselection challengers for his third position on the party’s Senate ticket, the most formidable of whom is said to be Nelson Savanh, a registered lobbyist who has support from James McGrath. Others in the field are “current Queensland LNP party treasurer and former Tattersall’s Club prez Stuart Fraser, serial candidate Fiona Ward (who has run for state and federal lower house seats before) and former Coalition adviser Sophie Li”, the latter of whom describes herself as “a technology entrepreneur, former banker and immigrant millennial woman”. The matter will determined by the party’s state conference on July 7.
Dr John @ #1993 Sunday, May 14th, 2023 – 7:26 pm
You do realize there is a reason for wearing undies?
https://ibb.co/PwvdrHW
Re Henderson and AFP.
Many times, usually around election time, I may receive ‘junk’ mail from the LNP which I consider tells lies about Labor.
So, I will write on the letter or brochure words and/or adjectives that I feel are appropriate to rebut those lies and send it back to them.
However, I am always reminded that people in powerful positions may have ways and means of causing me trouble, similar to Mr Zoomster’s predictment so I tend not to give my name, just as I don’t give my name on PB.
I would agree that if we were privy to those emails us PBs could give a more informed opinion on what maybe the outcome.
On the other hand, if they are breaking some law, we might be better off not publishing them on PB.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 7:40 pm
From Riviere Law:
SOME COMMON EXAMPLES
Some examples of Use Carriage Service To Menace, Harass Or Offend are listed below, but they are in no way an exhaustive list of possibilities;
Using a Facebook status post to call someone nasty names or mock them
Texting or posting threats, punishment, or desire to cause harm to a person, people or property
Texting or posting offensive language or offensive topics of discussion
Phoning someone to yell insults or threats, including strangers, randomly dialled numbers and free call numbers
Constant phone calls, texts or continual undesired Facebook messages
Text messages or app messages pressuring someone to send nude or explicit photographs of themselves
Forwarding pornographic images
Sharing intimate photos or videos of a partner
Phoning or messaging an ex-partner or desired partner repeatedly
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
What about putting stupid posts on Poll Bludger?
Adrian Beaumont post on the Turkish election:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/05/14/turkish-elections-live/
Upnorth Can one anonymous person using a pseudonym cause offence to another anonymous person using a pseudonym?
If your posting about public individuals potentially.
Attack the organisation not the individual is usually the safest ground.
You would think there should be some sort of public interest defence but apparently not.
Grime says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 7:40 pm
Dr John @ #1993 Sunday, May 14th, 2023 – 7:26 pm
Upnorth says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 7:19 pm
So who is the silly one now for going commando style?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Your decision on that.
I had a very entertaining mate whom unfortunately died prematurely from cancer.
You have brought back memories as Terry boasted he never wore undies.
You do realize there is a reason for wearing undies?
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
This is true cobber – especially up here after a feed a Grilled Field Rat and spicy Som Tam, but hey sometimes you gotta take a risk and roam free!
”
nathsays:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 3:21 pm
Ven, let me tell you, as a descendant of Edward III and a member of the Blood Royal if you will, that the others are correct on the order of succession. Upon which I keep a close eye in case of a catastrophe such as occurred in King Ralph.
”
As per your earlier post some months ago, you mentioned your mother is French and your father is Belgian.
Unemployment rate:
Nigeria: 33.3%
South Africa: 32.7%
Spain: 13.26%
Turkey: 10%
Colombia: 10%
Iran: 9.7%
Chile: 8.8%
Brazil: 8.8%
Italy: 7.8%
Sweden: 7.7%
Egypt: 7.2%
Euro Area: 6.5%
Pakistan: 6.5%
Argentina: 6.3%
Germany: 5.6%
Indonesia: 5.45%
Poland: 5.4%
China: 5.3%
Canada: 5%
Saudi Arabia: 4.8%
United Arab Emirates: 3.9%
Israel: 3.9%
United Kingdom: 3.8%
Norway: 3.7%
Russia: 3.5%
Netherlands: 3.5%
Australia: 3.5%
United States: 3.4%
Japan: 2.8%
South Korea: 2.6%
Mexico: 2.4%
Switzerland: 2%
Singapore: 1.8%
We could base an episode of an Australian version of “Law and Order” upon how Mr Zoomster sent an email containing naughty words to the good Senator. Or maybe “Bull” if it concentrates on the trial…
Upnorth says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 7:33 pm
I hope they are good memories cobber
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
More than good memories but one pursuit of colourful Terry was tantric sex later in life and many group orgies earlier in life (with some notable Melbournians also) was not my bag.
ha ha
William Bowe says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 7:43 pm
Adrian Beaumont post on the Turkish election:
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
So Big Adrian gets a dedicated thread to some obsucure election thousands of kilometres away meanwhile poor old Upnorth slaves on in the General Thread bringing punters live updates on an election in Australia’s backyard and in South East Asia’s second largest economy!
Favouritism I calls it. Anyway with 10 minutes left until the close of polls Upnorth will keep his nose to the keyboard on the General Thread with updates on the most important Thai election in Generations.
I hope there is a bloody Newspoll later and I keep interrupting with election results (unless William kicks me out).
Asha says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 7:24 pm
My HOM brand undies cost me $35 each and that’s when they are on sale.
………………………………………………………………………..
Shop around. You can get three or four good quality briefs for that price.
………………………………………………………………………………
98.6 says :
I bought my first pair of HOM undies 40+ years ago in Double Bay and never wear anything else.
Unfortunately, you can only buy them from France online now but I did buy some in Hong Kong 10 years ago.
To save time and postage I buy 10 at a time.
Usually white, sometimes black.
“Today is Mother’s Day in Ukraine.
We thank them for their care, love and understanding, and particularly bow our heads before all the mothers who have made the ultimate sacrifice, sending their sons and daughters to defend their country.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FwEMYafWwAEphZF?format=jpg&name=small
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/may/14/russia-ukraine-war-live-zelenskiy-arrives-in-berlin-after-germany-announces-further-27bn-of-military-aid
Слава Україні! Героям слава! Слава нації! Смерть ворогам!
Москва повинна бути зруйнована.
98.6says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 7:57 pm
Asha says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 7:24 pm
My HOM brand undies cost me $35 each and that’s when they are on sale.
………………………………………………………………………..
Shop around. You can get three or four good quality briefs for that price.
………………………………………………………………………………
98.6 says :
I bought my first pair of HOM undies 40+ years ago in Double Bay and never wear anything else.
Unfortunately, you can only buy them from France online now but I did buy some in Hong Kong 10 years ago.
To save time and postage I buy 10 at a time.
Usually white, sometimes black.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Each to their own but surely white undies are a no no no!
Upnorth @ Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 7:53 pm:
=================
Upnorth, I’m greatly appreciating your posts here on the Thai general election. It has inspired me to turn some of my attention to familiarising myself a little better with this near neighbour of ours, of such underrated strategic and economic importance to us. Please keep them going on the next open thread once the Newspoll results come out.
Dr Johnsays:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 7:49 pm
Upnorth says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 7:33 pm
I hope they are good memories cobber
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
More than good memories but one pursuit of colourful Terry was tantric sex later in life and many group orgies earlier in life (with some notable Melbournians also) was not my bag.
ha ha
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
98.6 says :
Just googled ‘tantric sex’ just to be sure of what I thought it was.
From what I read it was more like slow torture with no happy ending.
Are you living over there upnorth? I have Thai connections myself and keenly awaiting results of the election – although my understanding is the military regime has rigged the senate in its favour and will therefore have a big say over who supplies the PM.
Enough Already says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 8:03 pm
Upnorth @ Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 7:53 pm:
=================
Upnorth, I’m greatly appreciating your posts here on the Thai general election. It has inspired me to turn some of my attention to familiarising myself a little better with this near neighbour of ours, of such underrated strategic and economic importance to us. Please keep them going on the next open thread once the Newspoll results come out.
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
hazza4257 says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 8:05 pm
Are you living over there upnorth? I have Thai connections myself and keenly awaiting results of the election – although my understanding is the military regime has rigged the senate in its favour and will therefore have a big say over who supplies the PM.
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
No problems Enough Already – I will keep ploughing through and keep yous updated.
Hazza – yes Thailand has been home for over 8 years and yes the 250 Military appointed Senators get a vote along with the 500 MPs elected today. It will be interesting. Votes are being counted now. Expect first results in about 90 minutes.
Dr John says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 8:00 pm
98.6says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 7:57 pm
Asha says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 7:24 pm
My HOM brand undies cost me $35 each and that’s when they are on sale.
………………………………………………………………………..
Shop around. You can get three or four good quality briefs for that price.
………………………………………………………………………………
98.6 says :
I bought my first pair of HOM undies 40+ years ago in Double Bay and never wear anything else.
Unfortunately, you can only buy them from France online now but I did buy some in Hong Kong 10 years ago.
To save time and postage I buy 10 at a time.
Usually white, sometimes black.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Each to their own but surely white undies are a no no no!
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
98.6 says :
It most probably goes back to my childhood when all undies were white including singlets, but who wears them anymore ?
My motto “Must be white on the night”.
EA:
Agreed!
Dr John @ #2014 Sunday, May 14th, 2023 – 8:00 pm
Yes doesn’t work with Shock and Awe.
98.6says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 8:13 pm
My motto “Must be white on the night”.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Pauline Hanson hanging around Canberra bars would love it!
Thailand Very early figures (party vote only).
Move Forward 1897 (32%)
Pheu Thai 1321 (22%)
UTN (PM Prayut) 778 (11%)
BJT (Deputy PM Anutin) 735 (11%)
These figures are from the South which should have favoured the PM and Deputy PM
More results coming in:
Move Forward 35%UTN
Pheu Thai 22%
UTN 11%
BJT 10%
Democrats 8%
Cronus @ #1958 Sunday, May 14th, 2023 – 6:28 pm
Thanks for that. 🙂
Move Forward and Pheu Thai are the main Opposition Parties.
UTN, BJT, PPP and the Democrats all formed part of the Military backed coalition Government. Latest figures are:
Move Forward – 37%
Pheu Thai – 22%
UTN – 11%
BJT – 9%
PPP – (Deputy PM Prawit 8%)
Democrats 6%
Upnorth and Hazza
Hazza – yes Thailand has been home for over 8 years and yes the 250 Military appointed Senators get a vote along with the 500 MPs elected today. It will be interesting. Votes are being counted now. Expect first results in about 90 minutes.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
98.6 hopes :
ABC 24 had a lengthy story on the Thai election and showed thousands of supporters from both sides at various rallies in a way we’re not used to seeing in Australia. 1975 may have been the exception !
I always worry about such displays of over enthusiasm, especially in politics and in a country that has had any form of military rule in the past.
One only has to look at Trump’s MAGA supporters to see how things could go pear shaped.
However, I wish Thailand the best outcome from this election and no doubt whichever side Upnorth
backs is probably the way to go.
98.6 says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 8:33 pm
Upnorth and Hazza
Hazza – yes Thailand has been home for over 8 years and yes the 250 Military appointed Senators get a vote along with the 500 MPs elected today. It will be interesting. Votes are being counted now. Expect first results in about 90 minutes.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
98.6 hopes :
ABC 24 had a lengthy story on the Thai election and showed thousands of supporters from both sides at various rallies in a way we’re not used to seeing in Australia. 1975 may have been the exception !
I always worry about such displays of over enthusiasm, especially in politics and in a country that has had any form of military rule in the past.
One only has to look at Trump’s MAGA supporters to see how things could go pear shaped.
However, I wish Thailand the best outcome from this election and no doubt whichever side Upnorth
backs is probably the way to go.
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
The Election of a Move Forward Government would be “Whitlamesque” in terms of social change here.
Move Forward currently on 38% of the vote – that’s a swing of over 20%
Pheu Thai on 21% about the same as last time.
PPP which formed Government last time on 8% – a swing against it of 15%
Surprising results compared with opinion polls. Move Forward doing a lot better than expected. Long way to go
But of course winning the election is only the first hurdle to wresting power from the current mob
Does the Thai political party with the largest vote provide the Prime Minister? And does the Deputy come from a Coalition partner if no one party gets >50% of the vote?
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 8:46 pm
Does the Thai political party with the largest vote provide the Prime Minister? And does the Deputy come from a Coalition partner if no one party gets >50% of the vote?
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
A prime minister is elected by parliament. Candidate or candidates may be nominated by a party with at least 25 MP seats. A prime ministerial candidate must have the backing of at least 50 MPs to be considered for election by parliament. A candidate must have the support of more than 250 MPs to be elected. The non elected, 250 Military appointed Senators will also vote with the lower house on the Prime Minister. So the largest Party will not necessarily get the PM post!
Upnorth,
Do you think Ms Shinowatra would be favoured by the Generals in the Senate?
my understanding is the PM is selected by a joint vote of the 500-member soon to be elected HoR and and the 250-member Senate. So a party will need a landslide HoR victory to win that vote single-handedly.
The senate was previously an elected body (or at least partially) but is now entirely appointed by the military per the latest constitution. Previously the PM was chosen by a simple majority of the HoR members. Now it will be chosen by a joint vote.
I’m sure upnorth is better placed to say whether the military will actually honour the result of the election. The guy they installed as PM was a distant third in polling.
Suppose Move Forward stands little chance to provide the PM even if they are the largest party as I understand they are even more explicitly anti-militarist than Pheu Thai.
Just popped in to see what was exercising the minds of the bludgers tonight and was greatly surprised to find that it was men’s underpants. Obviously a slow news day.
”
Ballantynesays:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 6:36 pm
Ven
Thanks for that information re George III but I don’t get your point. I’m quite aware of George III’s style and title. It doesn’t invalidate anything I wrote earlier. There has not been a king of England since William III or queen since Anne.
Personally, I hope that one day there will be a monarch of England again as it means that Scotland will be an independent republic, hopefully as part of the EU. Not likely to happen in my lifetime, however.
”
Ballantyne
What I meant about the extract was George 3 was King of Great Britain and King of Ireland seperately at the time of his ascension before becoming King of Union of Great Britain and Ireland in 1801.
This is in reply to what you posted regarding that.
Update on Regions leading in seats –
Bangkok (33 seats) – Move Forward 31 seats, Pheu Thai, 1 Seat, Domocrats 1 Seat
Northern Region (59 seats) – Move Forward 12 seats, Pheu Thai 11 Seats, UTN 6 seats, PPP 1 Seat, BJT 1 Seat, 27 seats yet to count.
Northeast Region (133 Seats) – Pheu Thai 22 seats, Move Forward 14, BJT 9 seats, PPP 4 seats, 84 seats still counting
Central Region (67 Seats) – Move Forward 23, BJT 7, Domocrats 4, UTN 2, Pheu Thai 2, 28 seats still counting.
Eastern Region (29 Seats) – Move Forward 13 seats, Pheu Thai 6 seats, BJT 2 seats, PPP 1 seats, UTN 1 seat, 6 seats still counting.
Western Region (19 Seats) – BJT 2 seats, UTN 2 Seats, PPP 2 seats, Pheu Thai 2 Seats, Move Forward 1 Seat, 10 seats still counting.
Southern Region (60 Seats) – Democrats 13 seats, BJT 4 seats, UTN 3 seats, Move Forward 4 seats, Thai Sang Thai 2 seats, 4 independents still counting in 33 seats
Bystander:
I can start an argument about The Greens, if you want.
Update – Move Forward are now ahead in all 33 Bangkok seats.
Bystander says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 9:00 pm
Just popped in to see what was exercising the minds of the bludgers tonight and was greatly surprised to find that it was men’s underpants. Obviously a slow news day.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
But great the slaggers haven’t been around tonight!
Current State of the Parties (leading in counts)
Move Forward – 100 seats
Pheu Thai – 60 seats
BJT – 34 seats
PPP – 16 seats
Democrats – 16 seats
UTN – 11 seats
Chathai Pattana – 7 seats
Currently the Opposition Parties are on 160 of the 500 seats. Government Parties 73.
Looking like a landslide for the good guys in Thailand so far!
The Nation is now predicting there is a 64% chance of a change of Government.
Asha says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 9:19 pm
Looking like a serious landslide for the good guys in Thailand so far!
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
If I was in Australia I would agree with that comment
UpNorth Doesn’t the Govt only need 125 seats out of 500 to have a majority (given the 250 seats in the Senate)?
No thanks Asha. I think I’d prefer the underpants.
Even though the votes seem to look good for the opposition in Thailand, I’m a little worried about what might happen if the military decides to do a coup against it again.
I don’t think it would be immediate, they’ll probably take their time and strike unexpectedly later on like they did in Myanmar.
I hope such a thing doesn’t happen this time around.
How long before the military claim voting irregularities, a disrespect for the Royal Family, and demand an election do-over … in about 10 or 20 years time, Upnorth?
“Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 4:30 pm
I note the silence and protection from Newscorp and Foxsports given to their high profile and outspoken rugby league commentator arrested for alleged domestic violence.
It’s not what they report, it’s what they don’t report.”
————————————————————————
Saw that, Rex.
Happened to do a quick perusal of my workmates Sunday Telegraph while they went to worship the temple of Morrison/Trump in the little room.
Not one mention of said persons misdemeanours, and such a high profile one at that.
SMH meanwhile weren’t too concerned about putting the story up.
Won’t provide a link for obvious reasons.
#edited words added ” about putting the story up”