Title aside, this post doesn’t actually have a huge amount to tell you about the budget, which is the reason for a polling drought this week — Newspoll, Resolve Strategic and Essential Research should all be conducting polling over the coming days to gauge response to the budget and its effect if any on voting intention, to arrive in a flood probably on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. All we have on the poll front is the usual light-on-detail weekly numbers from Roy Morgan, which have Labor’s two-party lead out to 54.5-44.5 after narrowing from 56.5-43.5 to 53.5-46.5 last week, from primary votes of 35.5% apiece for Labor (down half) and the Coalition (steady) and 12.5% (down half, so presumably the two-party movement comes off preference flows).
Other than that:
• The Australia Institute had a survey last week found 80% agreement that the budget should provide more spending on affordable housing, compared with 10% who disagreed, with only 25% considering the government’s proposed housing investment fund would provide enough of it, compared with 51% who disagreed. The survey was conducted from April 11 to 14 from a sample of 1002. Simon Welsh of RedBridge Group says the firm’s focus group research suggests the public has grown more empathetic following a pandemic that “broadened out our in-groups to include the vulnerable and the disadvantaged”, combined with “the rising influence of Millennial and Gen Z voters, with their high-levels of social progressiveness”. Together no doubt with the parlous state of conservative politics at present, this is feeding into “strong levels of support for policies/proposals like the Voice, NDIS funding, ‘raising the rate’ or restitution of single parent payments”.
• The Australian reports Fran Ward, founder of a charity supporting distressed farmers, has the support of Stuart Robert to succeed him as the Liberal National Party candidate at the imminent Fadden by-election, and is “seen as the front-runner”. Ward ran unsuccessfully to succeed Andrew Laming in Bowman at the last election and Steve Ciobo in Moncrieff in 2019. Also said to be considering a run is Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell, whom Fran Ward unsuccessfully challenged at the council election in 2016. The Australian added another name to the list yesterday in Dinesh Palipana, “Queensland’s first quadriplegic medical graduate, works as an emergency doctor at the Gold Coast University Hospital”. After an initial flurry of speculation, Amanda Stoker, who failed to win re-election to the Senate from third position on the party’s ticket last year, has ruled herself out. Peter Dutton appeared to scotch the possibility of Stoker on the weekend when he said a local would be preselected, suggesting a failure to do so was the principal lesson to be learned from the defeat in Aston.
• Notwithstanding Amanda Stoker’s residence in Brisbane, The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column related a fortnight ago that she was “sniffing around the Gold Coast” for a seat – the suggestion at the time being that she would seek to succeed Karen Andrews in McPherson when she retires at the next election. Others said to be in contention for McPherson were Ben Naday, a lawyer and rural fire brigade officer backed by Andrews, and Leon Rebello, solicitor for King & Wood Mallesons and former staffer to Julie Bishop as Foreign Minister.
• Also from Feeding the Chooks, a report that hard right Liberal National Party Senator Gerard Rennick has attracted a number of preselection challengers for his third position on the party’s Senate ticket, the most formidable of whom is said to be Nelson Savanh, a registered lobbyist who has support from James McGrath. Others in the field are “current Queensland LNP party treasurer and former Tattersall’s Club prez Stuart Fraser, serial candidate Fiona Ward (who has run for state and federal lower house seats before) and former Coalition adviser Sophie Li”, the latter of whom describes herself as “a technology entrepreneur, former banker and immigrant millennial woman”. The matter will determined by the party’s state conference on July 7.
Ukraine’s military claims that Russian helicopters and jets shot down yesterday were downed by Russia’s own air defenses!!
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 9:23 pm
UpNorth Doesn’t the Govt only need 125 seats out of 500 to have a majority (given the 250 seats in the Senate)?
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Correct – if the whole Senate votes as bloc. Some Senators have already said they will vote for the Party with the most seats, some have said they will abstain and leave it to the Lower House. Time will tell.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 9:24 pm
How long before the military claim voting irregularities, a disrespect for the Royal Family, and demand an election do-over … in about 10 or 20 years time, Upnorth?
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Not sure cobber. If Move Forward keep well moving forward – the Elites and Military Establishment might move quick. Again this is a seismic shift in Thai Politics – time as always will tell.
Newspoll ALP 55 (-1) L/NP 45 (+1)
Federal Primary Votes: ALP 38 (0) L/NP 34 (+1) GRN 11 (0) ON 7 (0)
Newspoll 55 (-1) 45 (+1)
LNP 34 (+1) all others unchanged ALP 38, GRN 11, PHON 7
Biggest takeaway for me of polls since the election is the ALP primary has been stubbornly below 40. Maybe primary votes of 40-45 are a thing of the past
Will the Generals have something to say about a likely good guys result Upnorth?
I saw an article somewhere they may not be happy about a change?
Current State of the Parties (leading in counts) – Pheu Thai are making a come back and Move Forwards early momentum is stalling a little.
Move Forward – 100 seats
Pheu Thai – 69 seats
BJT – 39 seats
PPP – 20 seats
Democrats – 18 seats
UTN – 15 seats
Chathai Pattana – 9 seats
KLA – 2 Seats
Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham
#Newspoll Budget impact on economy Good 33 Bad 28 (net +5 is rather low historically)
Been There says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 9:33 pm
Will the Generals have something to say about a likely good guys result Upnorth?
I saw an article somewhere they may not be happy about a change?
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They have said no but they do get allocated Senate seats.
Newspoll Preferred PM: Albanese 56 (+2) Dutton 29 (+1)
The media trashing of the budget was a farce. Chalmers just can’t catch a break from them. But ultimately you can’t tarnish the first surplus in 15 years.
Labor still well ahead and people are either unsure or positive about the Budget.
Onto the next thing.
Latest Thai Updates including Party List Seats – much more counting to do however:
Move Forward – 100 Constituency Seats – 44 Party List – 144
Pheu Thai – 69 Constituency Seats – 22 Party List – 91
BJP – 39 Constituency Seats – 2 Party List – 41
UTN – 15 Constituency Seats – 15 Party List – 30
PPP – 21 Constituency Seats – 1 Party List – 22
Re Thailand, I was told some years ago by one of the RMC Duntroon classmates of King Vajiralongkorn that his nickname there was “Veggie”, and it wasn’t a contraction of his name.
So my reading of the Thai election results (thank you Up North) is Good Guys (progressive/anti-militarists) 235 seats, Bad Guys 93, uncertain / someone else 172.
The military appoint 250 Senators and as I understand it have a effective veto on legislation and appointments.
Holdenhillbilly,
Middle of the road budget has middle of the road impact.
The govt would probably be content with that Newspoll – seemingly little to no movement as a result of the budget either to the LNP or the Greens. The budget probably hasn’t enthused anyone greatly which was predictable but more importantly hasn’t put people totally offside either.
With such an unpopular leader like Dutton for Labor to have a primary of only 38% suggests Labor’s support is very soft.
33% is the floor and 38% is the ceiling.
Steve777 says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 9:50 pm
So my reading of the Thai election results (thank you Up North) is Good Guys (progressive/anti-militarists) 235 seats, Bad Guys 93, uncertain / someone else 172.
The military appoint 250 Senators and as I understand it have a effective veto on legislation and appointments.
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Very early in the count Stevo but about right. A joint sitting can be called if the Senate gets in the way. BTW the Senate is out next year and the next batch elected.
Lols L’arse.
Labor won majority government with a PV of 32.
Sustained polls of around 38% Labor PV kinda make you look stupid.
And you are not a stupid boy, are you?
BTW – when are we catching up for that drink?
Trouble at Pit:
“SAMUT PRAKAN: A woman was detained after injuring her husband in a gun and knife attack near a polling station in Muang district on Sunday, police said. According to police, the incident occurred at 12.20pm.
According to police, the incident occurred at 12.20pm while the husband, 63, was driving a pickup truck with his minor wife to the polling station at Darunrat School in Soi Wat Dan Samrong 58 in tambon Samrong Nua to vote. His legal wife was waiting for them in front of the school and signalled him to stop.”
Bangkok Post
New thread.
Labor can’t get above 38% primary vote even with Dutton as Oppo Leader. That’s clearly Labor’s primary vote ceiling in this term.
Re Hazza @9:32. “Biggest takeaway for me of polls since the election is the ALP primary has been stubbornly below 40. Maybe primary votes of 40-45 are a thing of the past”
The Greens seem to have a “floor” of about 10% and 80-83% of their votes return to Labor via preferences. The Greens party members and voters would in times past have been the “soft left” of Labor, but they will not be going back any time soon. So Labor won’t be getting 40+ very often if at all in future.
On the Right, I’m not too sure about One Nation. Many are Liberals who think that the Liberal Party is too tolerant and too left wing, like Pauline Hanson, but that’s not the full story. Their preferences go all over the place. They see to attract a few colourful characters (not necessarily “NSW Colourful”). Maybe they’re just a bit crazy.