Title aside, this post doesn’t actually have a huge amount to tell you about the budget, which is the reason for a polling drought this week — Newspoll, Resolve Strategic and Essential Research should all be conducting polling over the coming days to gauge response to the budget and its effect if any on voting intention, to arrive in a flood probably on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. All we have on the poll front is the usual light-on-detail weekly numbers from Roy Morgan, which have Labor’s two-party lead out to 54.5-44.5 after narrowing from 56.5-43.5 to 53.5-46.5 last week, from primary votes of 35.5% apiece for Labor (down half) and the Coalition (steady) and 12.5% (down half, so presumably the two-party movement comes off preference flows).
Other than that:
• The Australia Institute had a survey last week found 80% agreement that the budget should provide more spending on affordable housing, compared with 10% who disagreed, with only 25% considering the government’s proposed housing investment fund would provide enough of it, compared with 51% who disagreed. The survey was conducted from April 11 to 14 from a sample of 1002. Simon Welsh of RedBridge Group says the firm’s focus group research suggests the public has grown more empathetic following a pandemic that “broadened out our in-groups to include the vulnerable and the disadvantaged”, combined with “the rising influence of Millennial and Gen Z voters, with their high-levels of social progressiveness”. Together no doubt with the parlous state of conservative politics at present, this is feeding into “strong levels of support for policies/proposals like the Voice, NDIS funding, ‘raising the rate’ or restitution of single parent payments”.
• The Australian reports Fran Ward, founder of a charity supporting distressed farmers, has the support of Stuart Robert to succeed him as the Liberal National Party candidate at the imminent Fadden by-election, and is “seen as the front-runner”. Ward ran unsuccessfully to succeed Andrew Laming in Bowman at the last election and Steve Ciobo in Moncrieff in 2019. Also said to be considering a run is Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell, whom Fran Ward unsuccessfully challenged at the council election in 2016. The Australian added another name to the list yesterday in Dinesh Palipana, “Queensland’s first quadriplegic medical graduate, works as an emergency doctor at the Gold Coast University Hospital”. After an initial flurry of speculation, Amanda Stoker, who failed to win re-election to the Senate from third position on the party’s ticket last year, has ruled herself out. Peter Dutton appeared to scotch the possibility of Stoker on the weekend when he said a local would be preselected, suggesting a failure to do so was the principal lesson to be learned from the defeat in Aston.
• Notwithstanding Amanda Stoker’s residence in Brisbane, The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column related a fortnight ago that she was “sniffing around the Gold Coast” for a seat – the suggestion at the time being that she would seek to succeed Karen Andrews in McPherson when she retires at the next election. Others said to be in contention for McPherson were Ben Naday, a lawyer and rural fire brigade officer backed by Andrews, and Leon Rebello, solicitor for King & Wood Mallesons and former staffer to Julie Bishop as Foreign Minister.
• Also from Feeding the Chooks, a report that hard right Liberal National Party Senator Gerard Rennick has attracted a number of preselection challengers for his third position on the party’s Senate ticket, the most formidable of whom is said to be Nelson Savanh, a registered lobbyist who has support from James McGrath. Others in the field are “current Queensland LNP party treasurer and former Tattersall’s Club prez Stuart Fraser, serial candidate Fiona Ward (who has run for state and federal lower house seats before) and former Coalition adviser Sophie Li”, the latter of whom describes herself as “a technology entrepreneur, former banker and immigrant millennial woman”. The matter will determined by the party’s state conference on July 7.
Pi says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 6:16 pm
Upnorth: “howling night”
Ha. I spent a fair amount of time long ago in Thailand, but I can’t remember ever being there during an election cycle. That’s a cracker.
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It’s been a hoot and very enjoyable from an outsiders perspective. Kind of funny that the biggest “whistle blower” in the Kingdom made his fortune running soapy massages.
I had rather expected that royalist sentiment has been damaged by the current incarnation who is orders of magnitude less respected that the late lamented.
Boerwar says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 6:19 pm
I had rather expected that royalist sentiment has been damaged by the current incarnation who is orders of magnitude less respected that the late lamented.
UK/Thailand: same old, same old?
Boerwar says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 6:19 pm
I had rather expected that royalist sentiment has been damaged by the current incarnation who is orders of magnitude less respected that the late lamented.
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I would like to exercise my right to silence.
BW:
I believe that it absolutely has been damaged by the current monarch’s, er, active social life, but when you can still go to prison for criticising the guy, noone is going to dare express a negative opinion about him to anybody they don’t trust implicitly.
“Sarah Henderson needs to remember her party doesn’t have control of the AFP any more.”
I bet they still do. We have no freedom of speech in Australia, I hope hubby is ok Zoom.
Rex:
Indeed.
So, with that in mind, why are you jumping to the conclusion that the words used were so extreme that they warranted getting the Australian Federal Police involved, rather than the much more likely situation that the email was along the lines of “Fuck off you corrupt wankers.”
WeWantPaul says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 6:23 pm
“Sarah Henderson needs to remember her party doesn’t have control of the AFP any more.”
I bet they still do. We have no freedom of speech in Australia, I hope hubby is ok Zoom.
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As alluded to earlier this sort of things happen in Thailand when certain Instutions are criticised. In Australia Henderson’s response is disgusting.
C@T and Enough Already
Notwithstanding the four successes, I suspect the broader intent of shooting down Russian aircraft in Russian airspace is to force Russian aircraft deeper into Russia thereby diminishing the risk of Russian air superiority during the impending counteroffensive.
Asha @ #1956 Sunday, May 14th, 2023 – 6:28 pm
I did not conclude the words used were extreme.
I said it’s hard to judge without knowing the words used.
Rex:
What sort of words do you think would warrant a politician referring a constituent to the AFP?
Thai Election Update
The Thai Electoral Commission has just announced that a record turnout has been recorded in Thailand in this historic poll. Turnout is expected to exceed 80% when polls close in 90 minutes. Thailand’s first ever election was in 1932. In 2019, at the last poll, just over 74% of electors voted.
Without zoomster re-posting the words used by her husband, we cannot make a judgement about the truth of the matter.
” In Australia Henderson’s response is disgusting.”
I agree, but so is much of the behaviour of the AFP for more than a decade.
Asha @ #1960 Sunday, May 14th, 2023 – 6:32 pm
You’re now moving the goalposts.
You misrepresented me and I think you should acknowledge that.
”I said it’s hard to judge without knowing the words used.”
Unless the words included threats or hate speech, referral to the AFP does look like intimidation.
Ven
Thanks for that information re George III but I don’t get your point. I’m quite aware of George III’s style and title. It doesn’t invalidate anything I wrote earlier. There has not been a king of England since William III or queen since Anne.
Personally, I hope that one day there will be a monarch of England again as it means that Scotland will be an independent republic, hopefully as part of the EU. Not likely to happen in my lifetime, however.
Is the NationalDefence-DefenceStrategicReview. worth downloading and printing?
There doesn’t seem to be any way to order a hardcopy or don’t they do that these days?
A quick guide for how to follow a Turkish election.
Voting is now underway and closes at 5pm Turkish time.
From 6pm to 9pm, only results from the Supreme Election Council can be shared.
From 9pm onwards, the media can start commentating on results and venture predictions.
9pm in Istanbul is 4.00am AEST
“Without zoomster re-posting the words used by her husband, we cannot make a judgement about the truth of the matter.”
We can, it may be incorrect, but we certainly can.
WeWantPaul says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 6:42 pm
“Without zoomster re-posting the words used by her husband, we cannot make a judgement about the truth of the matter.”
We can, it may be incorrect, but we certainly can.
_________________________________
Ok we ought not make a judgement.
Rex:
Well, someone certainly is!
I don’t see how.
The only justification for a politician siccing the AFP onto a private citizen is if the email they sent contained either threats of violence / criminal activity or truly inflammatory hate speech. Otherwise, they just have to suck it up like every other elected official.
Asha says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 6:46 pm
Rex:
You’re now moving the goalposts.
Well, someone certainly is!
You misrepresented me and I think you should acknowledge that.
I don’t see how.
The only justification for a politician siccing the AFP onto a private citizen is if the email they sent contained either threats of violence / criminal activity or truly inflammatory hate speech. Otherwise, they just have to suck it up like every other elected official.
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Talking about undies – sic em Rex.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 6:44 pm
WeWantPaul says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 6:42 pm
“Without zoomster re-posting the words used by her husband, we cannot make a judgement about the truth of the matter.”
We can, it may be incorrect, but we certainly can.
_________________________________
Ok we ought not make a judgement.
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Wrong pronoun from you.
Try again ‘I’
The offence is using a carriage service to menace harass or offend.
So I think Asha it wouldn’t be merely being rude but it would be a lower standard of behaviour then you have articulated.
Lars:
Does that apply when someone is responding to unsolicited spam?
Asha
You said…
I did not conclude that.
You should withdraw the misrepresentation.
I don’t know Asha.
I’d guess the political parties wouldn’t limit their capacity to do political spam.
There’s be a lot of nutters who “communicate” with MP’s. Although robust communications should clearly be allowed.
Thai Election Update (Zoomster lucky hubby ain’t here) with thanks to our partners at The Nation.
“There have been three reports of voters destroying their ballot sheets so far today (Sunday) in Thailand’s general election. They all claimed they had unintentionally violated the election law.
In the southern province of Songkhla, a 76-year-old retired woman tore a green ballot sheet, which is for voting for party list members. She said that she did it due to a misunderstanding and that she has eyesight problems. She was, however, taken to a Songkhla police station and will be brought before a court charged with breaking election laws.
Meanwhile, in Samut Prakan province, a man who reportedly has Alzheimer’s disease also tore a ballot for party list MPs. Election officials did, however, allow him to vote for a constituency MP before taking him to Samrongnua police station, where he will face legal action for allegedly violating election laws.
In the northern province of Lamphun, a 41-year-old man, identified as Koradorn Thamnasart, crumpled a ballot while casting his vote at a polling station in Muang district. He confessed that he damaged the ballot out of anger, because he could not find the number of the party for which he wanted to vote.
The election officials at the polling station handed him over to police, who took him to a police station where he will face legal action for allegedly violating the election laws.”
471.12 Using a postal or similar service to menace, harass or cause offence
A person commits an offence if:
(a) the person uses a postal or similar service; and
(b) the person does so in a way (whether by the method of use or the content of a communication, or both) that reasonable persons would regard as being, in all the circumstances, menacing, harassing or offensive.
Penalty: Imprisonment for 2 years.
So I think based on your example Asha “Fuck off wanker”- you would be expecting a visit from the polizei.
I would think getting unsolicited emails from said LNP members would constitute being menacing, harassing or offensive, especially given the crap sent out post budget.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 7:00 pm
471.12 Using a postal or similar service to menace, harass or cause offence
A person commits an offence if:
(a) the person uses a postal or similar service; and
(b) the person does so in a way (whether by the method of use or the content of a communication, or both) that reasonable persons would regard as being, in all the circumstances, menacing, harassing or offensive.
Penalty: Imprisonment for 2 years.
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I guess Zoomsters Hubby felt harrassed by the unsolicited email from Senator Henderson. The good Senator could do two years in the lockup!
Rex:
Sure, okay, maybe you didn’t “jump to that conclusion.” I’ll withdraw that bit.
But, seriously, mate? You responded to someone sharing an anecdote about a disgusting and truly concerning abuse of authority by someone in a position of power, which would have only been justified in extreme circumstances, by basically saying “But we don’t know the full story, yet.” No, I guess we don’t, but we can make a decent stab at it based on the balance of probabilities.
I’d suggest Mr Zoomster might be wiser to call up the Senator’s office in the morning, and make an apology for any offence caused or given (unless the email was innocent.)
Asha @ #1984 Sunday, May 14th, 2023 – 7:09 pm
I appreciate you correcting the record.
I simply stand by what I initially said that it’s hard to judge without knowing the ‘adjectives’ used.
So, are we going to get a Newspoll or similar, tonight?
Dr John (I think) says :
Actually yabba, further to your informative cost of living spending post yesterday
I purchased at my recent new found great retail store chain Harris Scarfe last week 8 pairs of top quality Holeproof undies for $35!
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
98.6 says :
My HOM brand undies cost me $35 each and that’s when they are on sale.
98.6 says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 7:16 pm
Dr John (I think) says :
Actually yabba, further to your informative cost of living spending post yesterday
I purchased at my recent new found great retail store chain Harris Scarfe last week 8 pairs of top quality Holeproof undies for $35!
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
98.6 says :
My HOM brand undies cost me $35 each and that’s when they are on sale.
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So who is the silly one now for going commando style?
Lars:
I’m not a lawyer, but I would imagine that “harrassing, menacing, and causing offence” would require a pattern of aggressive unsolicited communication, threats of violence (or other stuff someone wouldn’t want done to them), genuinely bigoted language, or some combination of the three.
When you call or write or email someone out of the blue, you are inviting a response, possibly one that isn’t very friendly. You aren’t being harassed or menaced if they send an irate reply back to you, even one strewn with curse words, because you initiated the exchange with an unwilling person. Now, if they kept sending angry emails completely unprovoked, that may be a different story. (Even then, surely the local police are the appropriate people to contact, not the fucking AFP!)
By your logic, I’m committing a crime every time I tell a cold caller to fuck off.
I’d suggest he demand an apology from her office!
Shop around. You can get three or four good quality briefs for that price.
Upnorth says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 7:19 pm
So who is the silly one now for going commando style?
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Your decision on that.
I had a very entertaining mate whom unfortunately died prematurely from cancer.
You have brought back memories as Terry boasted he never wore undies.
MABWM:
Almost certainly.
My prediction:
Minor swing to Labor on primaries and TPP.
Minor swing to Greens and independents.
Albo’s personal ratings down a little.
Dutton’s personal ratings down more than a little.
Minor move back to to Albo on PPM.
Asha,
It’s federal legislation – so the AFP would deal with any complaints not the local coppers.
I don’t think there is a requirement for repeat unwanted behaviour – it is however subject to a reasonable person test, so would the hypothetical reasonable person consider the conduct to constitute menacing , Harrassing or causing offence.
I think the last part “causing offence” is the most problematic part of it. So a rude email or offensive behaviour could constitute “causing offence”
The obvious point to me is think before you send email communications. I think if you sent an email like
” please don’t send me your emails I am not interested etc etc”
That would obviously be ok – but sending a “fuck off wanker” email could constitute causing offence. It does seem crazy that the maximum penalty can be 2 years in the big house.
I’d imagine the most likely outcome is a junior officer at the AFP would counsel a person to think about what they send via email etc etc.
“Ok we ought not make a judgement.”
I don’t know our priors with Zoom exemplary and credible behaviour, and the LNP types, and the AFP types, we almost certainly should draw a judgement.
Re:Commando Style, As someone in who in their childhood and early career wore a kilt… I could’nea tell ye!
Dr John says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 7:26 pm
Upnorth says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 7:19 pm
So who is the silly one now for going commando style?
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Your decision on that.
I had a very entertaining mate whom unfortunately died prematurely from cancer.
You have brought back memories as Terry boasted he never wore undies.
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I hope they are good memories cobber. Had a few mates go too young from the “Spanish Dancer”. Me best mate told me to “live a bloody good life” just before he passed. I reckon he’d approve of my antics.
“That would obviously be ok – but sending a “fuck off wanker” email could constitute causing offence. It does seem crazy that the maximum penalty can be 2 years in the big house.”
Surely it would have to be a lot lot worse than that for unsolicited spam from these vile pricks?
From Riviere Law:
SOME COMMON EXAMPLES
Some examples of Use Carriage Service To Menace, Harass Or Offend are listed below, but they are in no way an exhaustive list of possibilities;
Using a Facebook status post to call someone nasty names or mock them
Texting or posting threats, punishment, or desire to cause harm to a person, people or property
Texting or posting offensive language or offensive topics of discussion
Phoning someone to yell insults or threats, including strangers, randomly dialled numbers and free call numbers
Constant phone calls, texts or continual undesired Facebook messages
Text messages or app messages pressuring someone to send nude or explicit photographs of themselves
Forwarding pornographic images
Sharing intimate photos or videos of a partner
Phoning or messaging an ex-partner or desired partner repeatedly