Title aside, this post doesn’t actually have a huge amount to tell you about the budget, which is the reason for a polling drought this week — Newspoll, Resolve Strategic and Essential Research should all be conducting polling over the coming days to gauge response to the budget and its effect if any on voting intention, to arrive in a flood probably on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. All we have on the poll front is the usual light-on-detail weekly numbers from Roy Morgan, which have Labor’s two-party lead out to 54.5-44.5 after narrowing from 56.5-43.5 to 53.5-46.5 last week, from primary votes of 35.5% apiece for Labor (down half) and the Coalition (steady) and 12.5% (down half, so presumably the two-party movement comes off preference flows).
Other than that:
• The Australia Institute had a survey last week found 80% agreement that the budget should provide more spending on affordable housing, compared with 10% who disagreed, with only 25% considering the government’s proposed housing investment fund would provide enough of it, compared with 51% who disagreed. The survey was conducted from April 11 to 14 from a sample of 1002. Simon Welsh of RedBridge Group says the firm’s focus group research suggests the public has grown more empathetic following a pandemic that “broadened out our in-groups to include the vulnerable and the disadvantaged”, combined with “the rising influence of Millennial and Gen Z voters, with their high-levels of social progressiveness”. Together no doubt with the parlous state of conservative politics at present, this is feeding into “strong levels of support for policies/proposals like the Voice, NDIS funding, ‘raising the rate’ or restitution of single parent payments”.
• The Australian reports Fran Ward, founder of a charity supporting distressed farmers, has the support of Stuart Robert to succeed him as the Liberal National Party candidate at the imminent Fadden by-election, and is “seen as the front-runner”. Ward ran unsuccessfully to succeed Andrew Laming in Bowman at the last election and Steve Ciobo in Moncrieff in 2019. Also said to be considering a run is Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell, whom Fran Ward unsuccessfully challenged at the council election in 2016. The Australian added another name to the list yesterday in Dinesh Palipana, “Queensland’s first quadriplegic medical graduate, works as an emergency doctor at the Gold Coast University Hospital”. After an initial flurry of speculation, Amanda Stoker, who failed to win re-election to the Senate from third position on the party’s ticket last year, has ruled herself out. Peter Dutton appeared to scotch the possibility of Stoker on the weekend when he said a local would be preselected, suggesting a failure to do so was the principal lesson to be learned from the defeat in Aston.
• Notwithstanding Amanda Stoker’s residence in Brisbane, The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column related a fortnight ago that she was “sniffing around the Gold Coast” for a seat – the suggestion at the time being that she would seek to succeed Karen Andrews in McPherson when she retires at the next election. Others said to be in contention for McPherson were Ben Naday, a lawyer and rural fire brigade officer backed by Andrews, and Leon Rebello, solicitor for King & Wood Mallesons and former staffer to Julie Bishop as Foreign Minister.
• Also from Feeding the Chooks, a report that hard right Liberal National Party Senator Gerard Rennick has attracted a number of preselection challengers for his third position on the party’s Senate ticket, the most formidable of whom is said to be Nelson Savanh, a registered lobbyist who has support from James McGrath. Others in the field are “current Queensland LNP party treasurer and former Tattersall’s Club prez Stuart Fraser, serial candidate Fiona Ward (who has run for state and federal lower house seats before) and former Coalition adviser Sophie Li”, the latter of whom describes herself as “a technology entrepreneur, former banker and immigrant millennial woman”. The matter will determined by the party’s state conference on July 7.
It is wise for dictators to encourage pretenders to monarchies.
Hitler, of course, had Edward VIII ready to resume royal duties, possibly with Sir Oswald Moseley as premier.
Personally I think the Chinese should go the long game and support a Stuart restoration – the pretender will soon be (after the death of her octogenarian father and uncle) Sophia, Hereditary Princess of Liechtenstein. A personal union between the UK and Liechtenstein offers significant advantages for Xi.
You just abolish primogeniture and replace it with the most worthy child of the next generation (as chosen by a people’s assembly) and voila
King Harry the first
What are Harry and Meghan’s thoughts on Taiwan ? have they expressed them exclusively to Netflix ?
I went through the whole of last weekend without seeing one second of the coro but some PBs are posting photos from it that are making me vomit.
Such is life !
98.6:
I live in the division of Wright, where public nakedness is eschewed; privately though…?
Mavis says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 5:05 pm
98.6:
I live in the division of Wright, where public nakedness is eschewed; privately though…?
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
What about your local MP’s elbows? I hear they are for the looking in the nude.
Upnorth:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 5:08 pm
I haven’t seen them nor do I think I want to even though uninteresting elbows may indicatate a pathology of some kind.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 5:03 pm
You just abolish primogeniture and replace it with the most worthy child of the next generation (as chosen by a people’s assembly) and voila
King Harry the first
What are Harry and Meghan’s thoughts on Taiwan ? have they expressed them exclusively to Netflix ?
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
98.6 says :
There is speculation that Meg is considering entering politics and from there running for President of the US and then its just a matter of proclaiming herself Queen.
Isn’t that how royal families started hundreds of years ago ?
Thai Election Update:
Poll Bludgers exclusive election partners (Nation News PLC) have just released exit polls and with just under three hours until polling close they make interesting reading (Note the poll was conducted in Greater Bangkok this morning).
If this poll is emulated at booths across the Kingdom the Government will be in massive trouble with the two main Opposition parties garnering over 82% of the vote. I expect Move Forward to do well in Bangkok and the Central Plains. Pheu Thai will score well in Thailands’ most populous regions across the North and North East.
For the Government to have any chance it will have to do exceedingly well in the South.
Paethongtarn Shinawatra – 27.1% Pheu Thai
Pita Limjaroenrat – 55.5% Move Forward
Prayut Chan-o-cha – UTN (Sitting Prime Minister) 13.3%
Jurin Laksanawisit – 4.1% Democrats
It could be a double bagger for the Chinese – they subvert the US and the UK by backing Harry and Meghan.
Upnorth,
Have Pheu Thai bribed the farmers of the N and NE again for their votes?
Also, if Paethongtarn Shinawatra gets to lead the country will she bring her father back from exile?
Sarah Henderson sent an unsolicited email to my husband.
He sent an email back asking her not to do this and throwing in a few adjectives to describe the Liberal party.
He has had an email back saying he has been referred to the AFP.
More Thai Election News this time from firebrand and former Soapy Massage Tycoon Chuvit, again courtesy of The Nation:
“Whistleblower Chuwit Kamolvisit claimed that more than 100 people had complained to him about candidates allegedly buying votes during the “howling night” on the eve of election day.
The former politician made this claim as he showed up to cast his vote at his polling station on Soi Ratchadapisek 3 in Bangkok’s Din Daeng district Sunday morning.
The night before election day is often referred to as “howling night” because parties supposedly send out representatives to their target voters at night to pay for votes, causing dogs in the neighbourhood to bark or howl.
On Sunday morning, before entering the polling station, Chuwit called National Police chief Pol General Damrongsak Kittiprapas to say that more than 100 people had told him about votes being bought. He made the call in front of a group of reporters.
He said the complaints posted on his Facebook page on Saturday night came from several provinces including Chonburi, Ayutthaya, Pathum Thani, Songkhla, Yala, Ubon Ratchathani and Udon Thani as well as Bangkok.
Chuwit, who made his fortune as a soapy massage parlour tycoon, said people were too afraid to go to the police, so they posted on his Facebook page instead.”
Cronus @ #1877 Sunday, May 14th, 2023 – 3:48 pm
… Where they have been firing their missiles from. So, is that legitimate to take down the source of the missiles that are meant for Ukraine by targeting that source in Ruzzia?
Terminator @ #1875 Sunday, May 14th, 2023 – 3:44 pm
I’d like him to as well. 🙂
Mavis says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 5:05 pm
98.6:
I live in the division of Wright, where public nakedness is eschewed; privately though…?
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
98.6 says :
That may be the case but you are only a hop skip and jump away from the Southport Spit where nudists abound.
The line of succession is William, then his eldest sprog, then their kids and so on and so forth. If William’s first brat fails to have a kid, it then passes to his second kid etc etc etc. It would be a rare thing for Harry or any of the others to get a look in.
Upnorth @ #1853 Sunday, May 14th, 2023 – 2:39 pm
Just wear some grundies, Upnorth. 😀
zoomster:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 5:24 pm
Henderson has the right… Please counsel your spouse.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 5:23 pm
Upnorth,
Have Pheu Thai bribed the farmers of the N and NE again for their votes?
Also, if Paethongtarn Shinawatra gets to lead the country will she bring her father back from exile?
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
Pheu Thai have offered everyone over 18, a 10,000 baht into a digital wallet that they can only spend within 5km of their place of residence. Farmers have been offered the usuals – debt forgiveness etc.
Dad has said he wants to come back and face the music as Paethongtarn delivered a baby son last week and he wants to see his grandchild. Not a bad effort to campaign in 35+ degree heat for months and then have a baby and be back on the hustings in a few days.
Smartly, she hasn’t answered directly if Pheu Thai will get him back.
But I think the Dark Horse and Party to watch is Move Forward. They are really riding a wave. There will be masive changes in Thai Society if they form Government (and are allowed to stay) including the end of conscription and changes to the Section 112 which deals with Lese Majeste and any criticisim of the Royal Instiution.
I can see months of horse trading before Thailand gets a new Government.
zoomster says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 5:24 pm
Sarah Henderson sent an unsolicited email to my husband.
He sent an email back asking her not to do this and throwing in a few adjectives to describe the Liberal party.
He has had an email back saying he has been referred to the AFP.
—————————
Lol zoomster , they dont like any criticism
zoomster @ #1377 Sunday, May 14th, 2023 – 5:24 pm
That one has a rather thin skin
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 5:33 pm
Upnorth @ #1853 Sunday, May 14th, 2023 – 2:39 pm
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 2:12 pm
Sounds like there’ll be a contest for highest conflict personality at the sir Stamford.
Hard to pick a finishing order for c@t, Andy and Yabba. Really depends on the on the day match performance to decide imo .
Maybe I should come along and provide independent adjudication ?
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
Well I will be judging nought all as I will be half sozzled. A word of warning I haven’t socialised with non-Thais for some time, but I shall try to recall my “Australian social mores”during the luncheon.
Just wear some grundies, Upnorth.
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
Scouts Honour cobber – I will even wear the ones without holes.
I am a bit of rebel though as it is technically illegal to leave your household in Thailand without underwear!
Scott says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 5:35 pm
zoomster says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 5:24 pm
Sarah Henderson sent an unsolicited email to my husband.
He sent an email back asking her not to do this and throwing in a few adjectives to describe the Liberal party.
He has had an email back saying he has been referred to the AFP.
—————————
Lol zoomster , they dont like any criticism
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
Tell ’em they’re dreaming!
C@tmomma @ Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 5:26 pm:
“A tough day in the air for Russia losing two MI-8 Hind Helicopters and an SU-34 bomber and SU-35 fighter. Interestingly all shot down in Russian airspace.
… Where they have been firing their missiles from. So, is that legitimate to take down the source of the missiles that are meant for Ukraine by targeting that source in Ruzzia?”
===============
C@tmomma, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius says ‘yes’ – even with ground troops.
https://kyivindependent.com/german-defense-minister-says-it-is-normal-for-ukraine-to/
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken doesn’t say ‘no’ – just that the US doesn’t “encourage and enable” such strikes.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/blinken-says-us-neither-encourages-nor-enables-ukraine-strike-inside-russia-2022-12-06/
I’d call that an ‘all clear’ for Ukraine to strike within Russia, as it is straight self-defence. My own view is that it is perfectly legitimate for a nation under attack to strike military assets within the territory of the aggressor nation. I’m not as sure about the general principle regarding enemy assets in a third country, such as Belarus in this conflict. I’m inclined to regard Belarus as an aggressor state against Ukraine, exactly because it has permitted Russia to use its territory to launch ground, air and missile attacks upon Ukraine.
Слава Україні! Героям слава! Слава нації! Смерть ворогам!
Москва повинна бути зруйнована.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1841 Sunday, May 14th, 2023 – 1:53 pm
You can turn up on Saturday if you like. The rest of us will be there on Sunday at High Noon. 😐
RSVPs need to be in to the blog by Wednesday so I can book the table with the correct numbers.
Thanks for that, Enough Already. 🙂
Sarah Henderson – she of the thin skin.
Sarah Henderson needs to remember her party doesn’t have control of the AFP any more.
98.6:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 5:32 pm
[‘That may be the case but you are only a hop skip and jump away from the Southport Spit where nudists abound.’]
I have an appointment with my GP tomorrow in Southport but refuse to go any near the Spit.
”King Harry the first”
More likely Henry IX.
”
Ballantynesays:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 3:48 pm
98.6
“What a lot of absolute f**king bullshit, to think that the son of the King Of England would not sit in the front row during the coro.”
The last King of ENGLAND was actually William III (of William and Mary). The last Queen of ENGLAND was Anne. She then became Queen of Great Britain and Ireland with the Act of Union in 1707. This eventually became the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland or UK for short. ENGLAND is not synonymous with the UK, notwithstanding what the English would have you believe.
”
Ballantyne
George III (George William Frederick; 4 June 1738[c] – 29 January 1820) was King of Great Britain and of Ireland from 25 October 1760 until his death in 1820. Both kingdoms were in a personal union under him until the Acts of Union 1800 merged them on 1 January 1801. He then became King of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_III
Russians KIA May 13: 620 (155 scaled to US estimate)
Total Russians KIA: 198,880 (49,720 scaled to US estimate)
Daily average Russians KIA: 447.9 (112.0 scaled to US estimate)
Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/14/7402106/
Слава Україні! Героям слава! Слава нації! Смерть ворогам!
Москва повинна бути зруйнована.
Upnorth says :
The night before election day is often referred to as “howling night” because parties supposedly send out representatives to their target voters at night to pay for votes, causing dogs in the neighbourhood to bark or howl.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
98.6 asks :
Although I have been to Thailand I don’t know much about their politics. Except that they have a monarchy and are ruled at present by the military.
Is it a country that can be seen to have fair and democratic elections, or will we see accusations of vote rigging etc. no matter who wins ?
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 5:26 pm
Cronus @ #1877 Sunday, May 14th, 2023 – 3:48 pm
A tough day in the air for Russia losing two MI-8 Hind Helicopters and an SU-34 bomber and SU-35 fighter. Interestingly all shot down in Russian airspace.
… Where they have been firing their missiles from. So, is that legitimate to take down the source of the missiles that are meant for Ukraine by targeting that source in Ruzzia?
———————————-
C@T
I think these were all air-to-air attacks. I say this on the basis that I’m unsure that Ukraine has ground based systems that could take down Sukoys from a distance. Also, the MI-8s were anti-ground radar types therefore should’ve mitigated against such attacks.
Given that Russia has been firing missiles from land and air sources, I think Ukraine, with newer aircraft and ground-based missile coverage has chosen to initiate attacks on any Russian aircraft remotely close to their border (distance tba). I should add that aviation is not my strong suit other than to fall out of them.
Upnorth @ #1436 Sunday, May 14th, 2023 – 5:36 pm
How do you get them on?
So Labor has a ‘healthy lead’ says Clennel.
At this point in the cycle, the ‘healthy lead’ in the PPM stakes, and the net dissatisfaction of the Liberal leader are of more interest.
Re Zoomster @5:24.
”…He sent an email back asking her not to [send emails] and throwing in a few adjectives to describe the Liberal party.”
He has had an email back saying he has been referred to the AFP.”
That’s a gross overreaction, even if the response (to an unsolicited email) might have included a bit of strong language. I would have thought the AFP has higher priorities. In fact, it seems like attempt at intimidation on Ms Henderson’s part.
Zoomster:
Looking forward to Henderson’s tearful speech about this in the Senate tomorrow.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 5:43 pm
Sarah Henderson needs to remember her party doesn’t have control of the AFP any more.
So easy to forget, one became so used to dealing with the riff-raff in that way!
98.6 says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 5:56 pm
Upnorth says :
The night before election day is often referred to as “howling night” because parties supposedly send out representatives to their target voters at night to pay for votes, causing dogs in the neighbourhood to bark or howl.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
98.6 asks :
Although I have been to Thailand I don’t know much about their politics. Except that they have a monarchy and are ruled at present by the military.
Is it a country that can be seen to have fair and democratic elections, or will we see accusations of vote rigging etc. no matter who wins ?
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
No Thailand has had an elected Government since 2019 (there was a military junta from 2014 until 2019). A coalition (which had the numbers in the lower house) backed Military strongman Prayut to be PM and went full term .
I doubt there will be accusations of vote rigging. Vote buying yes – but Thais I know have accepted cash from mutiple parties and will vote for the candidate of their choice. There are scrutineers in each booth and votes are secret. Foreign observers have also travelled the Kingdom to make sure things are fair. Lots of focus is on the Electoral Commission.
Today 500 Lower House seats will be decided. 400 individual constituencies and 100 from party lists.
The problem will be when the House convenes after the election to decide who will be PM and form Government. The 500 Lower House MPs will be joined by 250 Senators who were appointed by the then Military Junta. If the Senate vote as a bloc a PM might be appointed and a Government formed without the support of the Lower House.
Interesting times indeed.
yabba says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 6:02 pm
Upnorth @ #1436 Sunday, May 14th, 2023 – 5:36 pm
Just wear some grundies, Upnorth.
…………………
Scouts Honour cobber – I will even wear the ones without holes.
How do you get them on?
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
Paint
98.6:
From my limited understanding – and people much more knowledgeable on the subject like Upnorth can correct me on this – the elections themselves tend to be reasonably legit, however the military will seize power with the support of the royal family if the winning party gets ideas above their station and starts trying to implement actual reforms. It’s happened the last few times the major centre-left party has won government.
Asha @ #1938 Sunday, May 14th, 2023 – 6:06 pm
It’s hard to judge without knowing the ‘adjectives’ used.
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 6:02 pm
Upnorth @ #1436 Sunday, May 14th, 2023 – 5:36 pm
Just wear some grundies, Upnorth.
…………………
Scouts Honour cobber – I will even wear the ones without holes.
How do you get them on?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Straight over your head!
Actually yabba, further to your informative cost of living spending post yesterday
I purchased at my recent new found great retail store chain Harris Scarfe last week 8 pairs of top quality Holeproof undies for $35!
Upnorth: “howling night”
Ha. I spent a fair amount of time long ago in Thailand, but I can’t remember ever being there during an election cycle. That’s a cracker.
Rex:
Unless he genuinely threatened her life, there’s absolutely no excuse for an elected politician to be using such intimidation tactics on a private citizen.
The freedom to say mean words about politicians and political parties is a right afforded to all living in a democracy.
Asha says:
Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 6:11 pm
98.6:
From my limited understanding – and people much more knowledgeable on the subject like Upnorth can correct me on this – the elections themselves tend to be reasonably legit, however the military will seize power with the support of the royal family if the winning party gets ideas above their station and starts trying to implement actual reforms. It’s happened the last few times the major centre-left party has won government
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
I couldn’t possibly say that Asha given where I am posting. But if it was this time next weekend in Oz I would be agreeing 100% with you.
Another big election in Turkiye tonight. Liking the ballot paper…
Not really conducive to the donkey vote
Asha @ #1946 Sunday, May 14th, 2023 – 6:16 pm
We just don’t know the words used in the replying email.
Upnorth:
Ha, yes, I wouldn’t have dared write the above post if I was still in Thailand!