Essential Research’s fortnightly voting intention numbers, which include a 5% undecided component, have both Labor and the Coalition down a point on the primary vote, to 33% and 30% respectively, with the Greens steady on 14%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor up one to 53%, the Coalition down one to 42% and undecided steady on 5%. The poll includes has Anthony Albanese’s monthly personal ratings, on which he is down a point on approval to 52% and up one on disapproval to 35%.
Other findings from this fortnight’s survey include strong majority support for six proposed federal government measures to deal with the cost of living, ranging from 77% for electricity and gas price caps to 57% for changing industrial relations laws to make it easier for workers to negotiate pay rises. Fifty-four per cent now rate themselves as financially struggling or worse, up five since March, with 46% rating themselves comfortable or secure, down five. Asked how much impact federal government policies had on the cost of living, 31% chose a lot, 40% a little, 18% not that much and 5% hardly anything.
On climate change, 39% now rate that the government is not doing enough, down four from October and the lowest result this question has yielded going back to 2016, with doing enough up a point to 33% and doing too much up three to 16%. Fifty-one per cent support a national authority to manage the transition to renewable energy with 20% opposed, and 50% support government assessment of greenhouse gas emissions when considering new projects with 20% opposed, but only 34% support ending future coal and gas extraction projects with 35% opposed. Asked whether parliamentary approval should be required for a decision to go to war, the sample split 90-10 in favour of yes. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1133.
Also out yesterday was the latest Roy Morgan result, which had Labor’s two-party lead in from 57-43 to 54.5-45.5 from primary votes of Labor 34.5%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 13%.
UPDATE: Also out this morning from The Australian is results from Newspoll on the Indigenous voice, which finds 54% in favour and 38% opposed, breaking down to 55-36 in New South Wales, 56-35 in Victoria, 49-43 in Queensland, 51-41 in Western Australia, 60-33 in South Australia and 55-39 in Tasmania. The results are aggregated from three polls conducted since the start of February, but sub-sample sizes are as low as 334 in the case of Tasmania, increasing to 1414 in the case of New South Wales.
BK @ #98 Wednesday, April 5th, 2023 – 10:33 am
Are you watching the Tony Abbottesque, when too many flags are never enough, press conference from Mar A Lago?
”
MelbourneMammothsays:
Wednesday, April 5, 2023 at 10:29 am
Ven – the REAL power in this country is the Murdoch-Rag Media. It’s easy to avoid the cogwheels of law and justice if you have friends amongst them, as many Liberal party politicians do.
Also I wonder had Leifer and Hayne not been in minorities themselves but were white Anglo-Saxon Protestant Christians, whether their misdeeds would have gone unpunished.
”
I don’t necessarily agree with your 2nd paragraph.
B.S. Fairman @ #100 Wednesday, April 5th, 2023 – 10:34 am
I’ve been thinking about it and all I can conclude is that the higher ups decree that deference must be shown to a former President of the United States, and Trump plays that off a break.
Cronus says:
Wednesday, April 5, 2023 at 10:04 am
William Bowe says:
Wednesday, April 5, 2023 at 8:26 am
Addendum to the post:
Also out this morning from The Australian is results from the weekend’s Newspoll on the Indigenous voice, which finds 54% in favour and 38% opposed, breaking down to 55-36 in New South Wales, 56-35 in Victoria, 49-43 in Queensland, 51-41 in Western Australia, 60-33 in South Australia and 55-39, with due caution for small sample sizes in the smaller states especially.
————————————————————————————
And on behalf of decent Queenslanders I apologise both for our backwardness and apparently, inherent racism. I’m tired of being embarrassed by my state.
中华人民共和国
I reckon we will get there cobber. Undecideds will break on the Yes behalf. That’s only 1% more. It was QLD (and North Queensland) importantly that got the original Federation Referendum up. But yes unfortunaetly QLD is different. Years of mass migration from Southern Climes has brought Tory Nasties to QLD’s Tropical Climes.
Mrs Upnorth and I are now off the electoral rolls. Too long overseas and no intention at this stage to return. But Mum and Dad pushing hard for a yes with local yokels.
Ben Raue has answered THAT question about the recent NSW State election:
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/51352#more-51352
I can’t wait for the Seth Meyers and Stephen Colbert takes… 😀
”
B.S. Fairmansays:
Wednesday, April 5, 2023 at 10:34 am
Trump’s address is basically the same incoherent ramble that he has been making since the last election. It is not designed to convert anyone to his cause, just to maintain his existing base.
Surely ABC24 should be having a discussion about something else instead of showing this crap.
”
And Dutton is following the same formula.
Why do the media give this looney any airtime is beyond me? Every word he says is a lie. He needs to be locked up in an asylum.
Dog’s Brunch says:
Wednesday, April 5, 2023 at 8:57 am
Alpha Zero says:
Wednesday, April 5, 2023 at 8:50 am
Have the LNP “Got Enough Detail” now to decide their position???
Bridget Archer said they did , but you know Spud, his middle name is No.
____________
If Dutton has a Ph.D, he could be Dr No…
ABC Brisbane Radio devoting swathes of air time to the live bleatings of the Orange-is-the-new-Orange one.
Are you watching the Tony Abbottesque, when too many flags are never enough, press conference from Mar A Lago?
______
C@t
I have been, but doubt if I can stand any more of it.
Can Albo actually sell the Voice to the Australian public?
Success or failure will turn on this. The newspoll figures suggest is far from a sure thing.
So far it’s been platitudes like it’s manners, it’s being polite. Ultimately Albo will actually need to explain the detail and argue the case.
It shouldn’t be a close run thing – but clearly Albo has decided not to engage with the opposition which is a shame Because it should have been bipartisan.
Seth Meyers’ teaser from yesterday:
Trump Indicted, Arrives in New York to Face Arrest, Fox and GOP in Hysterics: A Closer Look
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_GQXKbzvTw
ABC get’s bored.
$45million spent on campaigns for one judge in Wisconsin supreme court election. This is, in part, an abortion election and in part setting up for election rules challenges come 2024, which helps explain the money – but still. That is a lot of coin.
Team Katich,
Australia’s GPD is HALF that of the state of California.
It’s interesting that Romney is saying the indictment is a mistake – given Romney is no friend of Trump.
And to think this man will again be President of the United States. The people of America will get what they deserve.
Pueo says:
Wednesday, April 5, 2023 at 10:22 am
Correction: … second only to Tasmania in switching to “no religion” in the Census.
————————-
Who knew? It seems counterintuitive.
C@t: “all I can conclude is that the higher ups decree that deference must be shown to a former President of the United States, and Trump plays that off a break.”
Reminds me of 6 January, when an ABC honcho banned the word ‘insurrection’ in reportage.
Colbert:
Will T**** Pose For a Mugshot? | GOP Warns: You Could Be Next
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-11iag36wFU
Cronus says:
Wednesday, April 5, 2023 at 10:04 am
William Bowe says:
Wednesday, April 5, 2023 at 8:26 am
Addendum to the post:
Also out this morning from The Australian is results from the weekend’s Newspoll on the Indigenous voice, which finds 54% in favour and 38% opposed, breaking down to 55-36 in New South Wales, 56-35 in Victoria, 49-43 in Queensland, 51-41 in Western Australia, 60-33 in South Australia and 55-39, with due caution for small sample sizes in the smaller states especially.
————————————————————————————
And on behalf of decent Queenslanders I apologise both for our backwardness and apparently, inherent racism. I’m tired of being embarrassed by my state.
____________
I am “in” but definitely not “of” Qld!
Some of Ms Snappy’s relatives have asked when they can call me a Qlder.
I could say “Not until hell freezes over” – but:
1) I don’t believe in an independently-existing “hell”; and
2) even if I did believe in it, and it was sulphur-hot, and there was ever a time when it froze over, it still wouldn’t be long enough.
Are we clear?
PS Part of me hopes the Voice passes in Qld by about 2 votes – which will make Ms Snappy and I relocating hear politically delicious.
IKR?
https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/religious-affiliation-australia#change-in-no-religion-over-time
To quote from an address given to the Chamber of Commerce and Industry by the deputy prime minister
“One man’s pay rise is another man’s job”
The deputy pm?
Anthony
This is recalled in context of the headline given to Gittens’ article in The Age today
So nearly 50 years on
“$45million spent on campaigns for one judge in Wisconsin supreme court election. This is, in part, an abortion election and in part setting up for election rules challenges come 2024, which helps explain the money – but still. That is a lot of coin.”
And to me, that is a really stark example of a very fundamental problem with American democracy.
Fine, elect the LAWMAKERS. These are the people in the legislatures that decide what the laws are and they should be subject to occasional popularity contests in the form of elections.
NOT Fine, elect the LAW ENFORCERS. Judges, Sheriffs, Police Commissioners Prosecutors……..
These people should be state and federal employees. The employment standard against which their worthiness for continuing employment should be judged is whether they enforce the law in a proper and impartial way. Subjecting them to a popularity contest among the people they may have to enforce the law upon is just outright wRONg.
Big $ spent to secure a judge position is just obvious and outright corruption and gaming of the system. 🙁
And don’t get me started on the whole “Electoral College” thing. Seems to me that the US actually has Democracy by Convention, not Democracy by Constitution like they think. 🙁
Daily Kos regarding Chicago Mayor election result:
Wow. This one is crazy close. Vallas now leads by just 400 votes—less than one-tenth of a percent—with an estimated 78% counted. This is the closest election for mayor of Chicago since 1983, when the legendary Harold Washington beat Republican Bernard Epton 52-48 to become the city’s first Black mayor.
C@tmomma and South, excellent points this morning on the way forward for Ukraine’s liberation of Crimea. My own view is that it will take a localised shock to prompt the Russian occupiers (military and civilian) to evacuate back to Russia. This is because it is very easy to imagine the peninsula as being very easy to defend, because of the offensive bottleneck created by the narrowness of the Isthmus of Perekop.
I think the best way to achieve such a shock is to exploit the very inaccessibility of the peninsula which makes a land assault look so daunting. That inaccessibility can work both ways – inhibiting entry of friendly re-supply as well as your own evacuation if needed, just as much as inhibiting hostile entry. Blow up the Kerch Bridge, seize the Isthmus, and demonstrate you can sink any craft arriving on the Crimean coast, and watch the panic unfold among the occupiers, civilian and military. Then offer to allow craft leaving Crimea to go unmolested.
This requires Ukraine to advance and hold down to about the town of Nizhnegorskiy, about 115km south-east of the narrow part of the Isthmus, where it attaches to the Kherson mainland. This is almost exactly the same advance Ukraine achieved in its Kharkiv offensive last September, which took them almost exactly one month.
It shouldn’t be a close run thing – but clearly Albo has decided not to engage with the opposition which is a shame Because it should have been bipartisan.
@Lars Von Trier
Considering the opposition believes their best chance of returning to government. Is the Tony Abbott playbook which is to obstruct and block everything. I think your comment should be viewed with skepticism.
Trump surely in contempt of court with his remarks just now.
Lock him up.
Mostly Interested
“ Lived there for 16 years, got culture shock right up until we left last year to move back to Tasmania. I always put it down to being a provincial hick from the south, but I came to understand that the Overton Window is a meaningful lens to view the differences through.
I believe that the initial colonization practices of the British in Australia played a significant role in shaping the current mindset of Queensland. However, I also believe that the internal migration patterns over the past 50 years have contributed just as much to Queenslanders current political and cultural views.”
———————————————————————————-
I always hoped that interstate migration might change things but apparently not, perhaps the age and politician persuasion of those migrating has something to do with it. Perhaps it’s not only the sunshine and cheaper living that draws folk up here, it may also be the inherent conservatism that’s a drawcard.
There’s also the anomaly that the Gold Coast is both hedonistic yet significantly Pentecostal (perhaps it suits their prosperity doctrine). It’s complicated I guess. Although the Southside of Brisbane saw many Chinese (among others as evidenced by the Mosques) settling there over the last 10-15 years, Indians now have been moving to the northern suburbs. I’d like to think these communities will broaden the perspectives of SEQ at least but of course notwithstanding some old Italian hotspots in FNQ, the regions will take much longer to change.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, April 5, 2023 at 10:44 am
Can Albo actually sell the Voice to the Australian public?
Success or failure will turn on this. The newspoll figures suggest is far from a sure thing.
So far it’s been platitudes like it’s manners, it’s being polite. Ultimately Albo will actually need to explain the detail and argue the case.
It shouldn’t be a close run thing – but clearly Albo has decided not to engage with the opposition which is a shame Because it should have been bipartisan.
____________
Bullfrackingsh1t.
From the party and the state that gave us Peter Dutton:
‘An Australian senator [Rennick] has attempted to undermine the entire theory of the greenhouse effect with a bizarre viral claim that scientists have been ignoring gravity’s role in heating the planet.’
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/05/climate-experts-hit-back-at-australian-politicians-bizarre-theory-about-gravitys-role-in-global-heating
Of course Labor and Liberal can do deals (when the mood seizes them).
Look at the Federal ICAC – that legislation was agreed by both sides to the exclusion of the teals/ greens.
The same could have been done with The Voice if both sides had wanted to.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, April 5, 2023 at 10:34 am
My eldest son actually lives in the US right now and he’s doing just fine. He’s entrepreneurial by nature and so when he got there he found a lot of like-minded individuals that were prepared to encourage him and the business he set up. I guess it depends on the sort of mindset you go there with.
—————————————————————————————
C@T
And what an incredibly interesting time for your son to be there, there’s always something of significance happening in the US. I should say too that I found individuals and families to be extraordinarily friendly (including die hard Republicans) and welcoming almost to a fault wherever I travelled. It’s the nation, their politics and media in particular that’s more problematic. I also met many Democrat voters that were quite horrified and humiliated by what has happened since the advent of Trumpism proving the division within US society. It’s an intriguing country and continue to be sure.
Cronus
“ Agreed, especially in relation to trade and similar (though not the same) political values. It may be that increasing trust through these elements that benefit both countries might even lead to changes in defence philosophies over the longer term. There’s little doubt that a proactive India sharing similar Defence and strategic goals would be a critical element to a more stable Indo-Pacific.”
Yes exactly. There is probably some historical baggage to overcome in any US attempts to improve defence ties with India. But Australia not so much. A closer Australia- India relationship has many potential benefits.
After the Ukraine war fiasco and closer Russia – China ties, India might be looking to move away from its traditional relationship with Russia for defence equipment. Australia developing closer ties could help there too. If The RAAF replaces its super hornet squadron with F35s, and USA agreed, India would be a good recipient of the surplus aircraft, which are not that old.
In the long term India, South Korea and Japan are the three countries Australia will most want to close trade and security ties with in the Indo Pacific, in the event Chinese authoritarianism continues, and the USA retreats to the east.
Cronus et al:
Lest we forget, Queensland has a proud history of progressive politics, from the world’s first Labo(u)r government to the first Australian state to elect a government led by a woman — with the abolition of capital punishment half a century before ‘Australia’s most progressive state’ (TM) along the way.
Albanese needs to engage with the Opposition?
Last tally I heard from him was seven meetings with Dutton on the Voice.
The Liberal culture warriors are not interested.
Latest news is the meeting today has been delayed. Maybe the leadership can’t agree on a position.
imacca @ #125 Wednesday, April 5th, 2023 – 11:01 am
Excellent summary. By making the law enforcers electable, the US has allowed their slavish devotion to “democracy” to instead turn the country into a plutocracy.
Nothing says this as clearly as the fact that even if he is found guilty of one or more felonies, Trump still has a real chance of being the next president.
I often wonder how it can be that so many Americans don’t seem to realize this.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, April 5, 2023 at 11:11 am
Of course Labor and Liberal can do deals (when the mood seizes them).
Look at the Federal ICAC – that legislation was agreed by both sides to the exclusion of the teals/ greens.
The same could have been done with The Voice if both sides had wanted to.
____________
As you well know, one side never, ever, wanted to. They didn’t when they could’ve in govt. They don’t now.
That’s one reason Albo accurately labels them the “Noalition”.
Like Craig Kelly and a few before him, Rennick is a con artist trying to monetize being a cooker.
Anyone who is sucked in by him is a fool and a moron.
“It shouldn’t be a close run thing – but clearly Albo has decided not to engage with the opposition which is a shame Because it should have been bipartisan. ”
So was Albo to blame for Dutton not turning up to parliament when the legislation was tabled? Really??
Reminds me of Russian propaganda about Ukraine not being willing to engage in peace talks.
Oliver Sutton @ #132 Wednesday, April 5th, 2023 – 11:08 am
He he …
Georgia becomes the first US state to condemn Hinduphobia.
https://youtu.be/DJSIJ9J19GM
Sounds like the Liberal shadow ministers still can’t decide what they want – the “move further right” crowd vs the “move to the sensible centre” crowd.
B.S. Fairman says:
Wednesday, April 5, 2023 at 10:34 am
Trump’s address is basically the same incoherent ramble that he has been making since the last election. It is not designed to convert anyone to his cause, just to maintain his existing base.
Surely ABC24 should be having a discussion about something else instead of showing this crap.
——————————————-
Agreed, just because an idiot says something stupid doesn’t mean it’s news. That after all is the Fox defence against Dominion, that they had a responsibility to show Trump whereas I’d argue they have a responsibility not to show Trump in light of his attempted coup on his nation.
The AG proposed words to give govt power to limit representations to executive govt. The Libs wanted the same thing.
The conservative critique has been exactly on this point.
Albo chose to ignore his own AG and the conservative critique.
Seems like if Albo agreed to the change the conservatives would have no where to go in opposing the voice.
That’s reflected in the polling now it’s about 60-40 at the moment . Will depend on albos ability to sell it.
It’s not going to be a bipartisan voice it will
Be a partisan voice unfortunately.
Oliver Sutton @ #132 Wednesday, April 5th, 2023 – 11:08 am
I once used to hand out HTVs at the local hall with a guy who handed them out for the Liberals and was the author, in Abbott times, of the Sunspot theory of Climate Change. Apparently every extreme weather event could be explained away by reference to sunspot activity. Ergo, man-made Climate Change was not a thing.
Nice man aside from that.
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, April 5, 2023 at 11:23 am
The AG proposed words to give govt power to limit representations to executive govt. The Libs wanted the same thing.
The conservative critique has been exactly on this point.
Albo chose to ignore his own AG and the conservative critique.
___________________________
No, the conservative critique was to ask for “More Details.”
The nut-job critique is just to say no…
My bet is that they will say Yes, to their own model only which totally un-ironically will be presented without any detail.
Just for laughs, I flicked across to FoxNews. I was not disappointed. They are rolling out the crazies to perform.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, April 5, 2023 at 11:23 am
The AG proposed words to give govt power to limit representations to executive govt. The Libs wanted the same thing.
The conservative critique has been exactly on this point.
Albo chose to ignore his own AG and the conservative critique.
Seems like if Albo agreed to the change the conservatives would have no where to go in opposing the voice.
That’s reflected in the polling now it’s about 60-40 at the moment . Will depend on albos ability to sell it.
It’s not going to be a bipartisan voice it will
Be a partisan voice unfortunately.
____________
Aston really is burning.
Look, a unicorn!