Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Little change on voting intention in the latest Essential Research poll, but a dip from Labor’s recent highs in Roy Morgan.

Essential Research’s fortnightly voting intention numbers, which include a 5% undecided component, have both Labor and the Coalition down a point on the primary vote, to 33% and 30% respectively, with the Greens steady on 14%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor up one to 53%, the Coalition down one to 42% and undecided steady on 5%. The poll includes has Anthony Albanese’s monthly personal ratings, on which he is down a point on approval to 52% and up one on disapproval to 35%.

Other findings from this fortnight’s survey include strong majority support for six proposed federal government measures to deal with the cost of living, ranging from 77% for electricity and gas price caps to 57% for changing industrial relations laws to make it easier for workers to negotiate pay rises. Fifty-four per cent now rate themselves as financially struggling or worse, up five since March, with 46% rating themselves comfortable or secure, down five. Asked how much impact federal government policies had on the cost of living, 31% chose a lot, 40% a little, 18% not that much and 5% hardly anything.

On climate change, 39% now rate that the government is not doing enough, down four from October and the lowest result this question has yielded going back to 2016, with doing enough up a point to 33% and doing too much up three to 16%. Fifty-one per cent support a national authority to manage the transition to renewable energy with 20% opposed, and 50% support government assessment of greenhouse gas emissions when considering new projects with 20% opposed, but only 34% support ending future coal and gas extraction projects with 35% opposed. Asked whether parliamentary approval should be required for a decision to go to war, the sample split 90-10 in favour of yes. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1133.

Also out yesterday was the latest Roy Morgan result, which had Labor’s two-party lead in from 57-43 to 54.5-45.5 from primary votes of Labor 34.5%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 13%.

UPDATE: Also out this morning from The Australian is results from Newspoll on the Indigenous voice, which finds 54% in favour and 38% opposed, breaking down to 55-36 in New South Wales, 56-35 in Victoria, 49-43 in Queensland, 51-41 in Western Australia, 60-33 in South Australia and 55-39 in Tasmania. The results are aggregated from three polls conducted since the start of February, but sub-sample sizes are as low as 334 in the case of Tasmania, increasing to 1414 in the case of New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,550 comments on “Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 51
1 2 51
  1. “[Essential’s] 2PP+ measure has Labor up one to 53%, the Coalition down one to 42% and undecided steady on 5%.”

    Divvying up the 5% would put Labor on 55-point-something and the Coalition on 44-point-something: pretty much in line with Newspoll.

  2. Repost from the previous thread….

    C@t,

    You asked for proof of Albo’s commitment to a million homes , so here you go

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11350437/Anthony-Albaneses-government-announces-plan-build-one-million-homes.html

    Re-read what I posted – I never once advocated for the greens housing policy, I simply make the point that housing in this country is broken, and that the HFF as a policy is grossly insufficient to address even the current waiting list for social housing and homelessness, much less do anything about affordability and housing in general.

    I actually advocated for an everything on the table summit to try and come to an accord/grand bargain on housing

    As usual the Labor sycophants on this blog ignore the substance, assume that if you’re against ALP policy you’re a green, and defend ALP policy as perfect and also the only possible solution to the issue at hand

    The HFF is pure neoliberalism, and an insult to all Australians struggling with housing, especially given the huge immigration and foreign student intake the ALP is targeting which will completely swamp the paltry 30k homes that the HFF might ‘incentivise’ to be constructed

  3. So, this mass immigration thing, without the necessary housing and other infrastructure to accommodate it, will make business happy? More working poor. Housing is at crisis levels in this country. If politicians declared real conflicts of interest there would be very few capable of voting on housing policy given how many of them have ‘investment homes’.

  4. Thanks William

    “ Asked whether parliamentary approval should be required for a decision to go to war, the sample split 90-10 in favour of yes.”
    ——————————————————————

    Count me in as one of the 90%.

  5. Unsurprisingly Trump pleads not guilty to the 34 charges of falsifying records. The indictment is here:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/documents/84fba797-216a-490c-b75d-d77bca6d10f3.pdf?itid=lk_inline_manual_22

    These would just be BAU for the Trump orbit. Nothing out of the ordinary, it’s just the way you get things done. I’m hoping that these charges are the tip of the iceberg and more illegal practices are identified through this case.

  6. “ But sources close to Murdoch then told Vanity Fair that while the exact reason for the split was unknown, it could be due to Murdoch’s reported discomfort with Smith’s evangelical views.

    Smith was previously involved in a court battle with her husband’s stepchildren over his multimillion-dollar assets, Vanity Fair added. During the litigation, Smith was accused of “financial elder abuse” by one of the children. The case was settled in 2010.”

    I’m not sure who got luckiest in this instance.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/apr/04/rupert-murdoch-calls-off-engagement-ann-lesley-smith

  7. Former US president Donald Trump is facing 34 charges of falsifying business records following his indictment by a grand jury in New York. Appearing at a Manhattan court on Tuesday afternoon, local time, Mr Trump pleaded not guilty to all counts.

    In the indictment, unsealed by a judge, prosecutors accuse Mr Trump of “repeatedly and fraudulently” falsifying records to “conceal criminal conduct that hid damaging information from the voting public” before the 2016 presidential election.

    “From August 2015 to December 2017, the defendant orchestrated a scheme with others to influence the 2016 presidential election by identifying and purchasing negative information about him to suppress its publication and benefit the defendant’s electoral prospects,” the indictment reads.

    “In order to execute the unlawful scheme, the participants violated election laws and made and caused false entries in the business records of various entities in New York.”

    The next in-person hearing in the case is reportedly scheduled for December, with a trial set to start in January of 2024 at the earliest. The 2024 presidential election, in which Mr Trump is a candidate, will happen in November of that year.

    https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/us-politics/donald-trump-faces-34-charges-of-falsifying-business-records/news-story/150e04d889f28e731257e3947eb6b66b

  8. Page Boi,
    You make a lot of assumptions about people you don’t know and have never met. Didn’t your mother tell you what happens when you assume things?

    Nevertheless, if you had asked my opinion, instead of assuming it when I asked for proof of the PM’s ‘1000000 homes’ statement, then you would have found out that I had a more nuanced perspective on the HFF than you assumed.

    For example, I had questions about how much money could be spent on Housing from a fund which relied on the market for its returns. What if the market slumped or there’s another GFC? Wouldn’t that mean that the money pipeline for Housing would dry up? Well, that question was answered to the extent that the government will cover that shortfall, should it occur. So, progress will not be halted.

    Now to the substance of your attempted Henny Penny alarum. These are the actual words of the PM and Treasurer:

    Building one million new homes will be the target of a Labor plan to bring together governments, the construction industry and super funds to boost investment in affordable housing.

    Treasurer Jim Chalmers will confirm details surrounding the plan when he delivers his first budget on Tuesday night.

    The federal government has already pledged $10billion to its Housing Australia Future Fund, which it says will deliver 30,000 social and affordable homes in the next five years.

    Dr Chalmers said reaching the one million homes target would tackle one of the biggest challenges facing the nation and its economy.

    1000000 new homes is the target. May I remind you of the saying, ‘Rome wasn’t built in a day’? You seem to think it should be.

    Also, the legislation being held up in the Senate by The Greens is obviously necessary before the government, the construction industry and Super Funds, an get together.

    Finally, the government has pledged to build 30000 social and affordable homes in the next 5 years. That’s a realistic goal. And if you don’t understand that, then you need to go and look up the meaning of ‘capacity constraints’. The PM and the Treasurer obviously do and have based their realistic goal for the first 5 years of the project, on that.

    Except The Greens are holding the whole thing up in the Senate so they can grandstand over it! 😡

    And you think that running around like a chook with your head cut off while not understanding the issue will solve it. Um, no. 😐

  9. The view from the Trump orbit.

    The Recount@therecount
    ·
    5h
    Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA): “Trump is joining some of the most incredible people in history being arrested today. Nelson Mandela was arrested, served time in prison. Jesus! Jesus was arrested and murdered.”

  10. Confessions @ #12 Wednesday, April 5th, 2023 – 6:31 am

    The view from the Trump orbit.

    The Recount@therecount
    ·
    5h
    Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA): “Trump is joining some of the most incredible people in history being arrested today. Nelson Mandela was arrested, served time in prison. Jesus! Jesus was arrested and murdered.”

    Jeffrey Dahmer was arrested. So was Ted Bundy, John Wayne Gacy. America has arrested lots of psychopaths. 😐

  11. south,
    You might be interested to read this article about the Russian fortifications in Crimea (it’s free for you to read, and anyone else who is interested):

    With Ukrainian leaders vowing to retake all of their territory occupied by Russia, Moscow has readied elaborate defenses, especially in Crimea, the peninsula it annexed illegally in 2014, which is now one of the most fortified in the war zone.

    After weeks of digging, the area around the small town of Medvedivka, near a crossing to mainland Ukraine, is webbed with an elaborate trench system stretching several miles. The passages are cut into the earth at angles to give soldiers a broader range of fire. Nearby are other fortifications, including deep ditches designed to trap tanks and heavy vehicles.

    Satellite images provided to The Washington Post by Maxar, a commercial space technology company, show that Russia has built dozens of similar defenses.

    “The Russian military, apparently, understands that Crimea will have to be defended in the near future,” said Ian Matveev, a Russian military analyst.

    https://wapo.st/3UbMREJ

  12. Trump’s lawyers tried to claim that this post from Trump was just him showing off an American baseball bat, and someone else put a picture of the DA next to him. As with their boss, it’s all lies.

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Donald Trump has just now pleaded not guilty to 34 felony charges of falsifying business records and conspiracy related to his role in hush money payments to cover up an alleged extramarital affair in the final days of the 2016 presidential election, an unprecedented development that marks the first time in American history a former president has been charged with a crime.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/04/donald-trump-charges-34-felony-counts
    Liberal shadow ministers will thrash out the opposition’s Voice stance in a hastily convened early morning meeting today as the party prepares to wave through the government’s bill allowing the referendum to take place. Paul Sakkal and Angus Thompson tell us that the opposition’s snap party room meeting in Canberra created confusion among senior Liberals, many of whom were not aware last night exactly what the party’s leadership wanted to decide on this morning.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-calls-snap-meeting-of-mps-to-decide-liberals-voice-stance-20230404-p5cy1h.html
    Meanwhile, a majority of Australians in a majority of states support enshrining an Indigenous voice to parliament in the Constitution, signalling the likelihood that a referendum would meet the critical double majority test to succeed if one were held today. Simon Benson reports that an exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows 54 per cent of all Australian voters support constitutional recognition and an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander voice to parliament, with 38 per cent opposed.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/five-states-raise-voice-to-back-indigenous-recognition-newspoll/news-story/027f9c23aaa6aa4bd0e61965eab65688?amp
    Paul Bongiorno writes that Peter Dutton can’t say yes, despite the Aston wipe-out.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/04/04/paul-bongiorno-peter-dutton-aston-wipeout/
    Phil Coorey and Tom McIlroy writes that chances of the Voice of parliament receiving bipartisan support could evaporate as soon as today with the Liberal Party poised to adopt a take-it-or-leave-it approach on its demands for an overhaul.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/voice-bipartisanship-unlikely-from-liberals-20230404-p5cxz9
    The National party has framed its opposition to the voice to parliament as wanting practical outcomes over symbolism. But can it escape the symbolism of being on stage next to Pauline Hanson, asks Gabrielle Chan.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2023/apr/04/by-choosing-to-share-a-stage-with-one-nation-barnaby-joyce-invited-division-into-his-community
    “It is easy to catastrophise electoral outcomes. The by-election loss in Aston was bad for the Liberal Party. Very bad. However, if the messages from this electoral drubbing are heard and the wake-up call seized, then good can come of bad”, writes Simon Birmingham in this call to arms. He’s still banging on about lower taxes and small government though.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-easy-to-catastrophise-election-outcomes-here-s-how-good-can-come-of-bad-20230404-p5cxzx.html
    There are some important lessons for the Liberal Party to learn from their recent series of election losses. There is no necessary law of political gravity which means that a party which has entered a losing sequence needs or will continue to do so. But if you keep making the same mistakes it is most likely that you will keep getting the same result, writes Bob McMullan who reckons the Liberals should ditch the Coalition with the Nationals.
    https://johnmenadue.com/election-reflections/
    Former Liberal MP Katie Allen writes, “There is no doubt that voting on Saturday was at least in part a tick of approval for Labor’s leadership. Despite being unpopular as an opposition leader, Albanese as prime minister is currently riding high. But the long and inexorable decline of the Liberal vote in Victoria shows the party needs to address its brand issue urgently if it is to turn around its fortunes in Melbourne.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberals-on-the-nose-well-beyond-goat-s-cheese-curtain-20230403-p5cxrb.html
    Peter Dutton has failed his own test. Here are four areas the Liberals must address to win back young voters, writes Victorian Liberal Party member, Andy Gordon in a heartfelt contribution.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/04/peter-dutton-has-failed-his-own-test-here-are-four-areas-the-liberals-must-address-to-win-back-young-voters
    As the Liberal Party tries to right the ship after a bruising defeat at the weekend’s Aston by-election, a second senior member of the former government has been tipped to go overboard. The New Daily revealed on Monday that senior Liberals had been briefed that former prime minister Scott Morrison would soon quit politics. Speculation is rampant within the party room that one of his closest allies, Stuart Robert, could follow, writes James Robertson who tells us that Robert is coming under pressure.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2023/04/03/stuart-robert-under-pressure/
    Ross Gittins argues that pay rises won’t screw the economy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/why-pay-rises-won-t-screw-the-economy-20230404-p5cxut.html
    The RBA has paused its record run of interest rate hikes. Relief may only be temporary, warns Peter Hannam.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/05/the-rba-has-paused-its-record-run-of-interest-rate-hikes-relief-may-only-be-temporary
    Sure, the RBA froze interest rates this time, but there’s plenty of pain to come, predicts Peter Martin.
    https://theconversation.com/sure-the-rba-froze-interest-rates-this-time-but-theres-plenty-of-pain-to-come-203223
    The Albanese government has had to negotiate eight separate deals with the states and territories to meet its promise to deliver up to $3 billion in power bill relief at the May 9 federal budget. Phil Coorey writes that, due to different eligibility criteria and varying power prices in each jurisdiction, the assistance for low-income households and small business will resemble a patchwork quilt in terms of amounts and who receives it.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/eight-deals-required-to-deliver-national-energy-relief-20230404-p5cxuz
    Outgoing NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet’s inflated view of Sydney is indicative of the Liberal Party’s entitled colonial leadership, writes Dave Donovan.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/perrottets-sydney-centric-stance-sums-up-liberals-elitist-worldview,17393
    Australia’s top-selling utes are among the most expensive and polluting vehicles to run and their popularity means transport emissions are projected to remain high as manufacturers funnel their least efficient models to the Australian market due to a lack of fuel efficiency standards, reports Elias Visontay.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/05/australias-high-polluting-utes-spark-calls-to-change-fuel-efficiency-laws
    Liquidators of collapsed construction firm Porter Davis have warned that some new customers could lose thousands of dollars from deposits because they were not insured, as the first meeting called by the administrators was swamped with questions from affected customers. This is disgraceful.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/devastated-porter-davis-customers-swamp-liquidator-s-meeting-with-questions-20230404-p5cxxo.html
    Asking rents in Sydney have shot up 25 per cent over the past 12 months and in Melbourne by almost 22 per cent as experts predict there will be no let-up for renters, writes John Collett who says that landlords are “tightening the screws”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/planning-and-budgeting/landlords-turn-the-screws-with-rents-set-to-soar-even-higher-20230331-p5cx3x.html
    Jacqui Maley explains how the Hayne verdict answers a brutal question about rape. She says it takes three trials, one appeal, an aborted jail sentence, almost five years, countless dollars in legal fees and taxpayer funds, and unquantifiable amounts of trauma extracted from the victim.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/hayne-verdict-answers-a-brutal-question-about-rape-20230404-p5cy4k.html
    Kate Aubusson reports that doctors offering cosmetic procedures will be banned from using influencer testimonials or posting photoshopped images on social media, and their would-be patients will need a GP referral under a suite of reforms aimed at cracking down on rogue cosmetic operators.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/crackdown-on-deceptive-cosmetic-doctors-social-media-posts-20230404-p5cy2t.html
    Oncologist Ranjana Srivastava tells us how Australia’s stretched health services leave doctors chasing X-ray results and nurses acting as orderlies.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/05/australias-stretched-health-services-leave-doctors-chasing-x-ray-results-and-nurses-acting-as-orderlies
    Mike Foley and Simon Johanson tell us how a Whyalla wipe-out is finally going to occur, a decade on, but in a different way to that trumpeted by Tony Abbott.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/a-whyalla-wipeout-is-finally-going-to-occur-a-decade-on-20230404-p5cxwf.html
    Australian sporting chiefs have warned grassroots sports will suffer if revenue from gambling advertising is cut, downplaying concerns over the number of ads targeting sports fans at a parliamentary inquiry into online betting in Canberra.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/not-a-major-issue-afl-nrl-bosses-defend-ads-at-gambling-inquiry-20230404-p5cy24.html
    In an open letter to Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil, Margaret Sinclair addresses the urgent need for the Albanese Government to end the Coalition’s perversion of human rights.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/coalitions-legacy-of-inhumanity-must-end,17396
    It’s almost twenty years since all asbestos use was finally banned in Australia, followed by buy-back schemes and class lawsuits to compensate victims. But in Canberra, some owners of ‘Mr Fluffy’ homes are still waiting to be compensated. Kim Wingerei reports.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/the-scourge-of-asbestos-remains-for-some-while-the-act-government-fails-to-act/
    At the last election, the Labor Party adopted a climate policy of “Swimming between the Flags”. This resulted in electoral success, but it represented an unthinkable future for humanity, complains David Shearman.
    https://johnmenadue.com/swimming-between-the-flags-on-climate-policy-threatens-our-future/
    A big lesson from a turbulent month in global banking is that digital banking and social media have introduced new risks to the industry, explains Clancy Yeates.
    https://www.theage.com.au/money/banking/why-banking-s-need-for-speed-could-also-be-its-key-risk-20230331-p5cx37.html
    David Southwick tells us how the paedophile fugitive Malka Leifer was brought to justice after 15 years.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/how-paedophile-fugitive-malka-leifer-was-brought-to-justice-after-15-years-20230403-p5cxrd.html
    Media mogul Lachlan Murdoch was culpable for the violent insurrection of the US Capitol after the 2020 presidential election because of lies told through Fox News, a judge has heard. In the federal court yesterday, barrister Michael Hodge KC said that while many media sources fuelled a conspiracy theory that Joe Biden stole the election from Donald Trump, Murdoch could still be held responsible.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/apr/04/lachlan-murdoch-culpable-for-january-6-insurrection-because-of-fox-news-lies-australian-defamation-case-hears
    It is the home of dance tutorial videos and viral comedy sketches. But it is also host to self-harm and eating disorder content, with an algorithm that has been called the “crack cocaine of social media”. Now, the information commissioner has concluded that up to 1.4 million children under the age of 13 have been allowed access to TikTok, with the watchdog accusing the Chinese firm of not doing enough to check underage children were not using the app.
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/apr/04/how-tiktoks-algorithm-exploits-the-vulnerability-of-children
    Rupert Murdoch has abruptly ended his engagement with the wedding only months away, according to sources close to the 92-year-old media mogul. Vanity Fair reported the news about the four-times-married Fox Corporation chairman’s engagement to Ann Lesley Smith, 66, a former San Francisco police chaplain turned conservative radio host, which was reported only last month. No comment is necessary.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/apr/04/rupert-murdoch-calls-off-engagement-ann-lesley-smith

    Cartoon Corner

    Matt Golding



    David Pope

    Simon Letch

    John Shakespeare

    Dionne Gain

    Andrew Dyson

    Glen Le Lievre


    Mark Knight

    Spooner

    From the US














  14. Thanks so much BK

    Even the media en masse are finally in agreement that the Coalition will not support The Voice. The media are so wilfully slow on this issue.

  15. Morning all. Cronus you can add me to the 90% wanting war decisions voted on in parliament. Considering how well Iraq and Afghanistan turned out.

    In the current climate it makes sense for Australia to diversify trade more. In that context India makes sense – hard for any Pacific power to disrupt, no national disputes between us, complimentary economies, and good growth potential. We might also help shift Indian sentiment to being more pro western.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-04-05/australia-free-trade-agreement-export-opportunities-india/102171032

  16. Thanks for the roundup BK. The forensic analysis of the Liberal crime cartel is good for schadenfreude. I was thinking about the reaction to the Voice compared to the 60s referendum and former Senator Neville Bonner. They have forgotten their own history. Too busy grifting.

    I like this cartoon.

  17. Another day and another day on which 30,000 homes will not be built.
    Another day on which 4,000 refuge homes will not be built for women and children who are escaping domestic violence.

    Give me the money or the kid gets it?

    #AtHomeWithBlockerBandt

  18. It is time for a financial day of reckoning in Australian sport. There are too many CEOs and a declining number of participants.

    Gambling money goes into high income elite / professional sport, not grassroots.

  19. On Porter Davis homes, there is a need for investigation and probably prosecution. Cost pressures in the building industry have been well known for 12 months. Companies that size do not go bankrupt overnight. Were they trading insolvent. Since taxpayers will pick up the tab, we are entitled to answers.

  20. Put me down for supporting war declarations to be made by a vote of both houses.

    Actually, put me down for supporting decisions any deployment of ADF beyond Australia’s territorial waters for the purposes of fighting to be made by a vote of both houses. (This is so that the standard workaround of the executive not actually declaring war is nullified.)

  21. Will Dutton be able to finagle a simultaneous:
    1. Liberal Party opposition to the Voice
    2. An individual MP conscience vote on the Voice?

  22. its funny the loudist people for the cashlis cardherald nines tv network has a lot of advertising from sports bet they wernt happy when minns desided to ban club donations dont know whiy as i dont see whiy clubs cant donate to politicial parties

  23. Aaron newton,
    David Harris, from the Central Coast, has been put in charge of implementing Labor’s gambling policy. He’s a very honest and thoughtful man and not someone who will be swayed by the Clubs and Pubs, I believe.

  24. didnt shadow aterney general julian leecer support the voice before what has changed maybi shadow cabenit solidarity he has lost credability

  25. so sezelja wants to run in senatefor act again obveously the canbera libra liberals hacve not learnt that a hard right leader in a progresive region may not be a good fit


  26. Former Liberal MP Katie Allen writes, “There is no doubt that voting on Saturday was at least in part a tick of approval for Labor’s leadership. Despite being unpopular as an opposition leader, Albanese as prime minister is currently riding high. But the long and inexorable decline of the Liberal vote in Victoria shows the party needs to address its brand issue urgently if it is to turn around its fortunes in Melbourne.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberals-on-the-nose-well-beyond-goat-s-cheese-curtain-20230403-p5cxrb.html

    Back hand compliment of Albanese by a Liberal, who was defeated by a party lead by him.
    Allen, another so-called Moderate Liberal, was defeated by a candidate , who was considered controversial because of her views on COVID. And she was defeated in a seat which elected PMs and Deputy Liberal leaders.

  27. I find the focus on ‘brand’ and ‘logo’ to be interesting. Ditto, the focus on the leader. Dutton asserts Liberal values of low taxes, small government, and individual enterprise. He was a minister in the government that had the federal government’s highest ever debt and highest ever tax take.
    However, not all is cognitive dissonance. Coalition MPs and Senators were certainly enterprising.

  28. A squad of Australian scientists and engineers will be the first to establish contact with the astronauts undertaking the most significant space mission of this century once the Orion space capsule blasts off from Florida and begins Artemis II, the first crewed lunar mission since 1972.

    The Canberra Deep Space Communication Complex will serve as a crucial conduit for correspondence and data transfer between the Artemis mission’s four astronauts – who were named on Tuesday – and NASA’s mission control centre in Houston, Texas. “It’s been 50 years since we supported human spaceflight beyond earth. It’s great to be back and part of that again,” the complex’s spokesman Glen Nagle said. “We supported the original Apollo missions. It’s a new generation now: the Artemis generation.”

    The Canberra complex, a NASA facility run by the CSIRO, is one of three stations that make up the agency’s deep space network (the other stations are in Madrid, Spain, and Goldstone, California) and it provides two-way radio contact for spacecraft roaming the solar system. It’s the only station that has retained communication with the Voyager 2 spacecraft, now 20 billion kilometres from Earth and deep into interstellar space. “Think of the deep space network as being the telephone exchange for the universe,” said Nagle.

    The four astronauts on Artemis II include the first woman, engineer Christina Koch, and the first person of colour, African American naval aviator Victor Glover, to embark on a lunar mission. In 2024 or ’25 they’ll fly the Orion capsule spacecraft around the moon in a crucial 10-day test-run ahead of an actual moon landing. As well as transmitting critical comms and data, the Canberra complex is also an emotional lifeline for the humans who, once launched, will become the most isolated souls in the solar system.
    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/we-re-the-connection-australia-s-vital-role-in-historic-lunar-mission-20230404-p5cy1d.html

  29. About the best that can be said about the coast-to-coast Labor administrations is that they’re not Liberals, Nationals or the Country Liberal Party. That’s no trivial point, given their collective determination to represent a constituency only slightly larger than the Sky After Dark commentariat. But it’s hardly a ringing endorsement of Australia’s oldest party. So perhaps we should dampen the celebrations following the last fortnight’s results until we see “how Labor governs” in New South Wales. In other places, we’ve already seen what happens when Labor governs without an effective Opposition.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/blog/russell-marks/2023/03/2023/labor-power-recent-history

  30. ‘Dog’s Brunch says:
    Wednesday, April 5, 2023 at 8:07 am

    About the best that can be said about the coast-to-coast Labor administrations is that they’re not Liberals, Nationals or the Country Liberal Party. …’
    ———————————————
    The best is that Labor can will do. The worst is that the Greens can’t and won’t do.


  31. Socratessays:
    Wednesday, April 5, 2023 at 6:57 am
    Morning all. Cronus you can add me to the 90% wanting war decisions voted on in parliament. Considering how well Iraq and Afghanistan turned out.

    In the current climate it makes sense for Australia to diversify trade more. In that context India makes sense – hard for any Pacific power to disrupt, no national disputes between us, complimentary economies, and good growth potential. We might also help shift Indian sentiment to being more pro western.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-04-05/australia-free-trade-agreement-export-opportunities-india/102171032

    Socrates
    India has been a better friend of Australia than US since advent of COVID.
    1. India bought about $150 million worth of Barley during COVID from Australia after China banned the imports of the same from Australia. Whereas USA captured that market lost by Australia.

    2. After AUKUS deal was announced for Nuclear Subs in September, 2021, China wanted the NNPT regime to sanction for breaching NNPT. India prevented that from happening by convincing majority of members on that regime not to vote with China. In the end China had to withdraw that submission.
    3. India treated both LNP and ALP governments same irrespective of their ideology, which cannot be the case when it comes to US administration.
    4. India treated Australia as 50-50 parterners. That is not the case with US

  32. Harking back to a previous life, borrowers sought access to products available in a deregulated banking industry to seek relief from the prevailing interest rate regime

    These products included Foreign Currency Loans – Non trade (in Swiss Francs because of the divergence of interest rates in Switzerland versus globally) AND Fixed Interest products (over as long as 5 years)

    Both products introduced elevated risk

    FCL-NT’s because of currency (noting there were claw back provisions but where did the available liquidity (funds) come from to meet the claw back provisions

    Stop loss Contracts priced the product at domestic cost so not effective given the core reason for requesting the facility (to seek relief from domestic cost of funds)

    With Fixed Interest Contracts the risk was market rates reducing to less than Fixed Rates over the term of the Fixed Rate Agreement noting the terms of those FRA’s

    Plus there were break costs to exit the FRA – based on the gross initial cost, so returning to the provider of those funds (the bank’s position arbitrary and arms length)

    The underlying consideration put to those seeking such facilities waa the ongoing and critical need of the borrowing to survive (so interest cover) in the (any) prevailing market and regardless of the actual cost of funds being lesser because of the lending product

    This explanation meant I had no such lending products across my set of accounts (there were FCL-trade exposures with a natural hedge being foreign currency revenues)

    If the borrowing was reliant on products to mitigate the cost of funds there was a fundamental problem – and that fundamental problem invited Receivership

    The great irony of that time was that I was ultimately put in the position of resolving FCL-NT lending given the depreciation of the AUD v the Swiss Franc (on the Cross Rates), where claw back provisions were in breach and security margins eroded (also because of falling property valuations so a double whammy)

    And Receivers appointed in cases where there was no other resolution available particularly because of the fundamentals of the business and the diversity of cash flow and profitability from the business model (so not able to leverage the risk assessment short falls against overall business performance and profitability)

    The so called “mortgage cliff” referred to is read (by me at least with my background) in the light of my experience

    And the borrowings being serviceable in prevailing domestic cost of funds analysis REGARDLESS of any product which mitigates against prevailing domestic cost of funds and availed of

    Then you get to claw back – so deploying the savings versus prevailing cost of funds to debt reduction (so not fixing all of the borrowing for this purpose)

    At the core is that the Cash Rate was never ever going to maintain ar 0.1%

    So you entertain the product for short term gain – deploying the monetary gain to accelerated principal repayments and shortening the length of the borrowing term with the benefits that brings

    Then you get media – the uneducated presenting to their fellow uneducated

    Of interest also is that just one third of residential property is subject to mortgage

    The reason being the lending is over 25 years on a principal plus interest repayment regime

    Business, invested into property it operates from introduces a different set of circumstances and equation

    But, in terms of your home mortgage, the consideration was that interest rates will never be this cheap so take advantage by paying debt down

    I would suggest that this scenario applies to the majority

    And media promotes the minority, the uneducated minority

    And just to add fools and their money are easily parted

  33. Addendum to the post:

    Also out this morning from The Australian is results from the weekend’s Newspoll on the Indigenous voice, which finds 54% in favour and 38% opposed, breaking down to 55-36 in New South Wales, 56-35 in Victoria, 49-43 in Queensland, 51-41 in Western Australia, 60-33 in South Australia and 55-39, with due caution for small sample sizes in the smaller states especially.

  34. I’m not sure if I saw it here to twitter, but If the LNP come out against the Voice today the choice also becomes about saying “Yes” to the voice and “no fuck off” to dutton. Nice and easy.

  35. BK @ #16 Wednesday, April 5th, 2023 – 6:50 am

    At the last election, the Labor Party adopted a climate policy of “Swimming between the Flags”. This resulted in electoral success, but it represented an unthinkable future for humanity, complains David Shearman.
    https://johnmenadue.com/swimming-between-the-flags-on-climate-policy-threatens-our-future/

    Good article. But …

    “I’ve come to think of formulating climate policy as an exercise in swimming between the flags. There’s now a bed-rock of support in Australia within certain parameters. But Labor’s view was, step outside those parameters and things start to get dangerous electorally”.

    The policy is political and not based on facts and science.

    While “swimming between the flags” is a clever analogy to use for the politics of climate change and Labor’s fear of deep water, it is also a dangerous analogy to use for anything to do with climate change because it assumes there is a lifeguard on duty that will save us from our own stupidity. There isn’t. On this issue the lifeguards have already announced the beach is closed and we are on our own.

    Also, want to kinow the real impetus behind AUKUS and our ridiculous submarine deal?

    In this enterprise we join our closest allies, the USA which is increasing its fossil fuel exports with new developments on their east coast and the approval of the Willow project in Alaska– apparently President Biden felt bound to approve it or he would run into legal difficulties! The UK, seeking former glory, has announced a huge new off-shore oilfield development.

    The three Aukus countries now walk together down the same street, but unfortunately in the wrong direction. All are excluding themselves from world leadership on climate.

    Fossil fuels are not the solution, as some posters here like to pretend – they are the problem.

    But if all that isn’t alarming enough, then this might be:

    It is crucial that all who wish to understand our likely future read the article by David Spratt on the recent IPCC report**. This explains that the huge scientific report has been significantly modified by the political representatives of governments but predominantly those of the fossil fuel producers, to provide the Summary for Policy Makers which guides governments. The scientific report itself indicates the current emission reduction targets of nations are totally inadequate to avert the dire consequences of a rise to 1.5 degrees.

    Our future is being determined by people who believe politics and profit is more important than facts and science. Their political future is more important to them than our lives or livelihoods.

    I’m not real happy about that.

    ** Here is a link to that article, and an extract:

    https://johnmenadue.com/ipcc-a-gamble-on-earth-system-and-human-civilisation-failure/

    But there is a tendency to put into future tense what should be present tense. The SPM says that warming of more than 1.5 degrees “would” be devastating for Earth’s people and ecosystems, but that is already the case because a number of crucial climate systems have already passed their tipping points at the current level of warming of 1.2 degrees. A search of key words relating to system tipping points and their consequences in the SPM is instructive: “feedback” appears once, “cascade” and “hothouse” not at all, “tipping” gets one mention, as does “Antarctic”.

    There is no admission that limiting warming of 1.5 degrees is not a desirable outcome and would involve, amongst many outcomes, eventual sea-level rises measured in many metres and likely in the tens of metres.

    And again, the SPM says that beyond the 1.5 degrees threshold, scientists have found that climate disasters will become so extreme that people will not be able to adapt. But that is already happening. People are already fleeing from desertification of the dry subtropics, from unprecedented drought, and from the salination of their land, today.

    In the report and the media commentary, there has been confusion about the feasibility of keeping warming below 1.5 degrees. Given the projected increases in emissions in the short term, which may not plateau till this decade’s end, and then remain high, the world is not within co-ee of keeping warming to 1.5 degrees (or even 2 degrees), and talk of 1.5 degrees is really about scenarios that involve significant overshoot and then trying to cool back to 1.5 degrees by century’s end.

Comments Page 1 of 51
1 2 51

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *