Federal polls: Resolve, Essential and more (open thread)

Multiple new polls defy emerging talk of an end to the Albanese government’s honeymoon.

Two new federal opinion poll results today:

• The long-awaited set of voting intention numbers from Resolve Strategic finds Labor down a point on last month to 39%, the Coalition down one to 30%, the Greens up three to 13% and One Nation steady on 5%. The Coalition gets a particularly bad set of numbers from Queensland, where they are down 11 points to 24% with Labor steady on 39%. No two-party preferred is provided, but I make it at close to 60-40 in favour of Labor. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 55% and up one on disapproval to 31%, while Peter Dutton is up three to 32% and down one to 44%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 55-23 to 51-22. The poll was conducted Sunday to Thursday from a sample of 1600.

• The fortnightly voting intention numbers from Essential Research, which include a 5% undecided component, have Labor up two to 34%, the Coalition down one to 31%, the Greens up two to 14% and One Nation down two to 5%. Labor’s lead on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure widens from 49-44 to 52-43, the balance being undecided. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1124.

As was the case with the Resolve Strategic poll with numbers published on Saturday, the Essential Research poll featured further results on AUKUS, finding 40% agreement with contention that the submarine agreement would “make Australia more secure” (down four from November) versus 21% for less secure (up five) and 40% saying it would have no impact (up one). Respondents were also less inclined to rate that China was a threat needing to be confronted than in November, down six to 20%, and correspondingly more favourable to the alternative view that it was a “complex relationship to be managed”, up six to 67%, with an unchanged 13% considering it “a positive opportunity to be realised”. Twenty-six per cent considered the purchase worth the expense, 27% felt the submarines were necessary but the expense too great, and 28% believed the submarines were unnecessary.

An occasional series of questions on leaders’ attributes, the first such since February last year, found Anthony Albanese’s biggest strength to be that he was in control of his team (59%), while 54% felt he changed his opinions too much and 49% rated him out of touch with ordinary people. Peter Dutton scored weak results across the board, his strongest being that 47% felt him in control of his team, and his weakest being 61% for out of touch and 34% or 35% for visionary, understanding of women’s issues and more honest than other politicians.

In other poll news, JWS Research finds 42% favouring a yes vote in an Indigenous voice referendum, down one since August, with 28% for no, down five; and the latest Roy Morgan voting intention results, conducted from March 6 to 12, have Labor leading 56.5-43.5 from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 34% and Greens 12.5%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,285 comments on “Federal polls: Resolve, Essential and more (open thread)”

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  1. I know you are well versed in aged care protocols. Can you help me clarify the report about the aged care interest payment increases.
    Thanks in advance.
    ______________
    Vic
    Actually, I thought the article explained it quite well. The nugget in there is the maximum that the resident is expected to pay while in a facility capped currently at $76,097.

  2. The Apostate Stooge says:
    Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 9:48 am

    The Greens….they are tactical kin of the Lying Reactionaries. They will be sorely tempted to vote against Labor, whom they despise.
    _______
    If you were wondering what you did in your fugue state for two years it was posting this repeatedly.

  3. BK

    The part i was confused about was the case example of Shirley. Looking back at the article, i had missed the words “If Shirley pays by daily payment”

    Thanks BK!

  4. Poor Dutton (and the state Liberal leaders) have played all the tricks in the Howard, Abbott and Morrison playbook……and they don’t work anymore! The Voice will be the nail in the coffin.

    It is like the electorate (and a few in the MSM) have finally woken up!

  6. ‘Holdenhillbilly says:
    Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 8:58 am

    Reuters reports commanders of the air forces of Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark signed a letter of intent to create unified Nordic air defence to counter the threat from Russia.’
    ——————————————
    Quite a mix of jet fighters but the spine will eventually be around 100 JSFs.

  7. P1

    Wow, your comprehension skills are really astounding.

    You do realise that the quotes you’ve pulled from that article are basically saying the Greens are in danger of making themselves irrelevant?

  12. zoomster @ #1157 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 11:06 am

    P1

    Wow, your comprehension skills are really astounding.

    You do realise that the quotes you’ve pulled from that article are basically saying the Greens are in danger of making themselves irrelevant?

    Your ability to miss (or is it misrepresent?) the point always astounds me.

    I won’t bother to repeat or expand it. I think those who look without blinkers will will get it.

  14. Confessions @ #1120 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 8:16 am

    Thanks BK. My god, an absolute howler from Tingle.

    Former Western Australian Indigenous Liberal treasurer and Aboriginal affairs minister Ben Wyatt summed up one of those moments well when he wrote in The Australian on Friday of the emotion showed by the Prime Minister and Indigenous leaders at Thursday’s press conference in Canberra to announce the agreed wording on the referendum question on the Voice, and the proposed new chapter in the Constitution.

    Ben Wyatt was Treasurer in McGowan’s Labor government before he retired at the last state election.

    She misread one letter as K instead of B, apparently.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/24/ken-wyatt-warns-opposing-indigenous-voice-could-add-to-perceptions-liberals-are-a-racist-party

  15. I am surprised that the Liberals senators have not been saying what they heard Watts say. Senator Cash certainly heard something – she yelled “you grub” – but she has not said anything to the media. That is out of character.

  16. laughtong @ #1163 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 11:21 am

    Rex Douglas @ #492 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 11:16 am

    Question marks will hang over Murray Watts character if the alleged comments aren’t stated.

    Probably the effect Henderson was wanting to create. IIRC she was a journalist before entering politics

    We can’t judge Senator Henderson’s reaction, or Senator Watts character, until we know what the exact comments from Watt were.

  17. USA: Regulators again assured the public that the banking system is safe, as fresh data showed customers recently pulled nearly $100 billion in deposits.

    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and more than a dozen other officials convened a special closed meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council on Friday. A readout from the session indicated that a New York Fed staff member briefed the group on “market developments.”

    “The Council discussed current conditions in the banking sector and noted that while some institutions have come under stress, the U.S. banking system remains sound and resilient,” the statement said. “The Council also discussed ongoing efforts at member agencies to monitor financial developments.” There were no other details provided on the meeting.

    The readout, released shortly after the market closed Friday, came around the same time as new Fed data showed that bank customers collectively pulled $98.4 billion from accounts for the week ended March 15. That would have covered the period when the sudden failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank rocked the industry. Data show that the bulk of the money came from small banks. Large institutions saw deposits increase by $67 billion, while smaller banks saw outflows of $120 billion.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/24/100-billion-pulled-from-banks-but-system-called-sound-and-resilient.html

  20. Murry Watt’s remark as reported by Swollen Pickles.

    “Are you going to move the expulsion of your far right members?”

    The monster!

  22. Peter Hartcher in today’s Nine papers totally nails Dutton on his almost inevitable support for the No vote in the referendum, and how the yes vote going down to defeat would damage Dutton far more than Albanese. Good read!

  23. Asha says:
    Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 11:39 am

    Murry Watt’s remark as reported by Swollen Pickles.

    “Are you going to move the expulsion of your far right members?”

    The monster!
    _______
    Doesn’t seem likely to me. I thought he called for a Nazi. Which would fit more with her reaction; crying and calling it ‘the most disgraceful thing’. but who knows.

  24. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 11:16 am
    Question marks will hang over Murray Watts character if the alleged comments aren’t stated.
    —————————–
    The corrupt media hacks aren’t going on about it, because it doesnt look good for Sarah Henderson sending those text messages to the Victorian liberal party leader

  26. The senator Sarah Henderson stunt against senator Murray Watt , failed like the bullying stunt the liberal/nats females tried against Anthony Albanese

  28. zoomstersays:
    Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 11:55 am

    Great to see Rex defending a Liberal who supports anti-trans activists.

    So much integrity.

  29. Hansard:

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=chamber/hansards/26449/&sid=0000

    Senator BIRMINGHAM: The unity with which all mainstream political parties in Australia have stood against Nazi ideology, Nazi sympathisers and Nazi propaganda—

    Senator Watt: You sent the text messages.

    Senator BIRMINGHAM: has provided a strong and enduring protection against a known evil being able to inflict harm on our society.

    Senator Henderson: You are a disgrace.

    The PRESIDENT: Senator Birmingham, could you resume your seat.

    Senator Watt: You’re a disgrace.

  30. To clarify – both Watt and Henderson are clear in their later personal statements that this is the incident referred to.

    Watt says his comment was directed at the Liberal Senators in general, not one in particular.

    It’s possible that something was said that wasn’t picked up by Hansard, but neither of them allege that.

  36. Rex

    I’ve provided you with what was said.

    If you were at all genuine (ha, ha) you’d be demanding to see Henderson’s texts, and saying she had questions to answer.

  40. I think there are 3 possibilities here;

    1. Watt said something hurtful to Henderson
    2. Henderson manufactured her reaction for some reason
    3. Henderson misheard something and gave a genuine reaction to something that didn’t happen.

  43. nath @ #1190 Saturday, March 25th, 2023 – 12:26 pm

    I think there are 3 possibilities here;

    1. Watt said something hurtful to Henderson
    2. Henderson manufactured her reaction for some reason
    3. Henderson misheard something and gave a genuine reaction to something that didn’t happen.

    Yes, maybe hansard missed some of the exchange between them …?

    It’s all very unfortunate for both of them.

  44. It was at the same time that Birmingham was talking about Nazis. It’s possible she misheard what was being said and thought the word ‘nazi’ came from Watt, following his comment about ‘right wing members’.

  48. Rex

    In which case, Henderson comes out badly. Watt explained it wasn’t directed at her, and apologised.

    Instead of accepting his apology, she’s doubled down.

    I’ve taken offence sometimes (particularly in the classroom!) to a misheard comment. The reaction is genuine, but when I’ve worked out what’s happened, I’m the one who owes the apology.

  50. Well Henderson hasn’t actually said what she heard or misheard.

    I think we can chalk this one up to the headless horseman and move on. Until further evidence emerges.

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