Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)

Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings continue to fall steadily to earth, but the latest Newspoll registers very strong support for the government’s proposed super reforms.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 54-46, in from 55-45 last time. The primary votes are Labor 37% (down one), Coalition 35% (up one), Greens 10% (down one) and One Nation 7% (up one). Anthony Albanese’s approval rating is down two to 55% and his disapproval is up five to 38%, and his lead on preferred prime minister is in from 56-26 to 54-28. We are told that Peter Dutton’s net rating is at minus 11 – he was at 36% approval and 46% disapproval last time (UPDATE: Now 37% approval and 48% disapproval).

The poll also finds very strong support for the proposed changes to taxation of superannuation, which the question goes to some lengths to explain. Sixty-four per cent registered support for the idea, with only 29% opposed, with breakdowns viewable here finding the proposal seemingly scoring well with every constituency other than journalists.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1530.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,108 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. My take on the old stale media, the under 40’s mostly don’t watch free to air TV ( well you wouldn’t pay for it ) and do not buy or read newspapers .
    my kids are 40 and 38 so i have a good insight .
    they are also not homophobic or racist and very environmentally aware .
    they have little respect for boomers , and can we blame them.
    that’s why Mudrake and strokes are failing.

  2. Kelta says:
    Monday, March 6, 2023 at 10:54 am

    My take on the old stale media, the under 40’s mostly don’t watch free to air TV ( well you wouldn’t pay for it ) and do not buy or read newspapers .
    my kids are 40 and 38 so i have a good insight .
    they are also not homophobic or racist and very environmentally aware .
    they have little respect for boomers , and can we blame them.
    that’s why Mudrake and strokes are failing.
    ____________

    Kelta, it took me a couple of seconds but then I got “Mudrake” – LOL!

    Not “touching” “Strokes”…!

  3. A former U.S. Army private from Kentucky who was devoted to a violent extremist group seeking to erode or destroy Western civilization was sentenced to the maximum 45 years in prison Friday for plotting a murderous terrorist attack on his paratrooper unit.

    Ethan Melzer’s hands trembled as the judge said he deserved the maximum because of the lasting harm he caused by sharing U.S. military secrets with other followers of a radical violent group known as the Order of Nine Angles, or 09A, and other terrorist groups.

    U.S. District Judge Gregory H. Woods rejected the 24-year-old’s claim to be a remorseful, reformed man, saying it was more likely he was “playing another role” in pursuit of leniency just as he had “played soldier” so he could conspire to try to murder fellow paratroopers.

  4. Snappy Tom,
    The Uniting Church needs a better advertising agency, if they have one at all. Plus, a rejig of the Sunday Mass. It’s why the Pentecostals have done so well. They turned Sunday Mass in to a rock concert experience.

  5. Ethan Melzer will be right at home in prison in the US. There’s a flourishing White Supremacy movement there. 😐

  6. Kelta says:
    Monday, March 6, 2023 at 10:54 am
    My take on the old stale media, the under 40’s mostly don’t watch free to air TV ( well you wouldn’t pay for it ) and do not buy or read newspapers .
    my kids are 40 and 38 so i have a good insight .
    they are also not homophobic or racist and very environmentally aware .
    they have little respect for boomers , and can we blame them.
    that’s why Mudrake and strokes are failing.
    —————————————————

    Agreed and I echo the above. My family (same ages) are the same.

  7. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, March 6, 2023 at 11:03 am

    Snappy Tom,
    The Uniting Church needs a better advertising agency, if they have one at all. Plus, a rejig of the Sunday Mass. It’s why the Pentecostals have done so well. They turned Sunday Mass in to a rock concert experience.
    ____________

    We made an initial choice not to get into advertising – possibly naive.

    The general public often think the Salvos are big in community service.

    Every year, the largest non-govt community service provider is either the Uniting or Catholic Churches (and the Catholics are more than 2.5 the Uniting Church’s numerical size).

    As far as turning worship into a rock concert, it can be done with integrity, just not often by pentecostals. I’m specifically happy to NOT replicate Hillsong.

  8. Kelta says:
    Monday, March 6, 2023 at 10:54 am

    My take on the old stale media, the under 40’s mostly don’t watch free to air TV ( well you wouldn’t pay for it ) and do not buy or read newspapers .
    my kids are 40 and 38 so i have a good insight .
    they are also not homophobic or racist and very environmentally aware .
    they have little respect for boomers , and can we blame them.
    that’s why Mudrake and strokes are failing.
    ——————————
    The media has become an easy excuse for whoever losses an election and its easy to see a generation in a positive light when its voting how you want but what happens when it doesn’t because that day will come.

  9. RC streaming has improved. So far Turnbull has agreed:
    – ministers must not break the law
    – ministers must support cabinet decisions
    – WhatsApp is great

    Currently asking about Mr Tudge’s travels.

  10. SK:

    Interest rate announcement tomorrow – 80% prediction of up. The ALP and Albanese are under electoral pressure due to some downward pressures on standards of living and it has little to do with Dutton or Murdoch. That they are still at 54% is quite a honeymoon.

    But these pressures are constant. Everytime interest rates rise, even every time people shop for groceries.

    Yet profits are up. If the ALP govern 3 years of a trickle up economy it will come back to bite them.

    Agree with all of this.

  11. UK Cartoons:
    Nicola Jennings on how #RishiSunak can’t step free of past scandals

    Patrick Blower on #MattHancock #CovidMessages #CovidLeaks #CovidInquiry

    Guy Venables on #PrinceHarry #FrogmoreNoMore

    Morten Morland on #ToryShambles #ConservativeParty

    “You’ve heard your father, Harry. Come out, we know you’re in there!” #PrinceHarry #FrogmoreCottage #FrogmoreNoMore

    Andy Davey: A dishy, served by little #RishiSunak cold to that poor #MattHancock

    Chris Riddell on Boris Johnson, the DUP, Matt Hancock, (no) tomatoes, a turnip… all in the prime minister’s in-tray

  12. laughtong says:
    Monday, March 6, 2023 at 11:24 am

    Late Riser @ #186 Monday, March 6th, 2023 – 11:14 am

    Hmm. RC video is stuttering. Frustrating.

    Turnbull’s legacy re nbn?
    ___________

    Off-topic I know, but couldn’t Counsel Assisting slip in a pointed question about the patchy quality of the NBN-supported video of the RC…?

  13. RC live:
    – Turnbull’s diary is not a record of events
    – Turnbull’s diary was a scheduling tool.
    – Greggery mis-tabs.
    – Turnbull points it out.

  14. RC Commissioner asks, wtte, “Did Tudge understand his job?”
    Turnbull responds with faint praise and Turnbull wanting Tudge to “do his job”.

  15. RC Commisioner is digs into Tudge’s performance and Turnbull’s awareness of it. Turnbull responds, “I don’t recall.”

  16. I mentioned before the importance and value of an FTA with Europe. It isn’t only for tanks and wine from us.

    China is making big strides in EV e ports to Australia. Thanks to our FTA, they attract zero tariff, whereas EVs from Europe attract 5% duty.

    So in the absence of an overall EV policy other than “save the utes!”, Chinese made EVs are getting a competitive advantage over those made in USA, UK, EU and Korea.

    Small wonder our EV market is dominated by Chinese made EVs, with popular cheap EVs made by VW, Peugot, Renault not sold here.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-03/china-electric-vehicles-launch-into-australia-affordable-prices/101794194

    Therefore I would argue that an FTA with the EU, preferably combined with adopting the EU emissions scheme, is essential to getting a competitive market of affordable EVs in Australia.

  17. Turnbull has surprised himself in finding out that his memory is failing. He hasn’t known himself to have any mental limitations previously 🙂

  18. Greggery turns to PwC’s role in developing budgets, re achievability of financial targets. Now it’s Turnbull who is stuttering.

  19. Here is what was at stake for Ukraine in Estonia’s just-concluded general election:

    “The Baltic state, a member of the EU and NATO, has led international calls over the past year for more military aid to help Ukraine fight off Russia’s invasion.

    Estonia’s military assistance to Ukraine currently amounts to more than one percent of GDP — the biggest contribution of any country relative to the size of its economy.

    “We support an open, friendly, Western-minded, European, smart country,” Kallas told AFP in an interview.

    “My biggest competitor thinks that we shouldn’t help Ukraine, we shouldn’t support Ukraine, we should only look for our self-interest,” she said.

    According to EKRE’s leader, Martin Helme, Estonia should not be “further escalating tensions” with Moscow.

    EKRE has campaigned against additional military aid to Kyiv, and called for an end to accepting Ukrainian refugees and for lower immigration rates to protect Estonian workers.”

    https://www.kyivpost.com/post/13832

    So, by boosting Reform’s seats and reducing EKRE’s, Estonia has convincingly voted to continue its exceptional level of support for Ukraine’s resistance. 🙂

  20. Turnbull describes a chaotic process.
    Commissioners observes the processes were “amateurish and disastrous”.
    Turnbull says, we’re only human.

  21. Late Riser says:
    Monday, March 6, 2023 at 11:45 am

    Turnbull describes a chaotic process.
    Commissioners observes the processes were “amateurish and disastrous”.
    Turnbull says, we’re only human.
    ———————-
    That reflects well on the party of business and management.

  22. BK,

    That was a fair response re economics and Bode diagrams from control theory. In fact, a lot of very technical economist make use of control concepts, e.g. things like using LQRs to model investment in financial products when receiving a temporary positive income shock.

    Of course when this is said:
    “…both control systems and economic systems can be modeled using transfer functions that relate input variables to output variables. In economics, interest rates can be considered a control variable that affects output variables such as inflation, economic growth, and employment…”

    we should go back to first principles and recall that transfer functions are typically derived for linear time-invariant systems, and economies are not neither of these things (esp. over the long term).

    I’ve seen it argued that Lowe and the RBA’s policy mistake are because they are assuming some elements of the economic system haven’t changed over the last 30 years, like industrial bargaining power. Complex systems are complex.

    But yeah, a pretty good response from ChatGPT.

  23. I think Turnbull’s opening statement about going back to a government based on Ministerial Responsibility is where his input will begin and end.
    He’s position is the assumption that the minister and ministry is working within the law and because they never indicate any differently then it’s not his responsibility.

  24. Snappy Tom @ #149 Monday, March 6th, 2023 – 10:49 am

    yabba says:
    Monday, March 6, 2023 at 10:08 am

    Snappy Tom @ #123 Monday, March 6th, 2023 – 9:18 am

    Alpha Zero says:
    Monday, March 6, 2023 at 8:17 am

    I love the article in todays SMAge (in the Dawn Partol):
    Largest survey of Catholic women reveals what they think of their church
    A survey of women in the Catholic church have shown many want serious change.
    Australian researchers led the global study, finding that two-thirds of Catholic women are frustrated and want radical reform in the church.
    _______________________________
    How about they try LEAVING the church?
    It’s not for changing…
    ____________

    Message from my sponsor: they could try joining the Uniting Church!

    Let’s face it, we could do with the numbers…

    Yabba says:

    Hi Snappy, what’s your view on:
    Ephesians. 5 Verses 21 to 33
    [22] Wives, be subject to your husbands, as to the Lord. [23] For the husband is the head of the wife as Christ is the head of the church, his body, and is himself its Savior. [24] As the church is subject to Christ, so let wives also be subject in everything to their husbands.

    Who wrote that particular piece of offensive nonsense? On what authority? Why?

    When was it written? In what language? To what obscure group of cultists?

    On what possible basis could a heap of foul, misogynistic garbage like that quote be used as the basis for consistent ongoing domestic abuse by those with ‘faith’ (ie irrational beliefs)?

    There are lots of Uniting’s ‘faithful’ victims in this set:
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-23/clergy-wives-speak-out-domestic-violence/9168096
    ____________

    One victim/survivor of domestic violence is one too many.

    St Paul almost certainly didn’t write Ephesians.

    St Paul? What is the SAINT bit meant to mean? Is it like an Abbott knighthood?

    An itinerant tent maker who had a stroke, or some other major brain explosion while on the road, and says he changed instantaneously from being a persecutor of a tiny ratbag jewish cult to being a supporter. And you say that this particular nonentity didn’t write this major cause of within marriage abuse and rape amongst ‘christians’!!! Whew! That’s a relief. I’m glad you told me that, I’m sure!

    Why does it matter which one of the two or three “St Paul”s penned that particular piece of vomitous garbage. Which one didn’t write the Timothy II bit of ‘god’s word’ that justifies gay bashing and conversion therapy? I am sure that it must be essential that we know that we don’t know that as well.

    Untold millions of women have been abused and serially raped for large parts of their lives, because a motley assembly of cult leaders, in 325 CE, decided that a bunch of incoherent, internally contradictory ‘books’, of almost completely unknown authorship, should be lumped together and called ‘holy scripture’.

    This grab bag of random nonsense soon thereafter became the basis of killing people who did not accept the whole steaming pile of arcane, ridiculous bullshit as being authoritative. Woe betide any blasphemer or heretic. Whipped, stoned, hanged, banished, all in the name of the Jewish, Muslim, Roman, Eastern, Mormon, Methodist, Anglican, Presbyterian, Uniting mythical SKY FAIRY that was INVENTED by a tribe of middle eastern nomadic sheep and goat herders in around 3500 BCE. Notice the weird obsession with ‘lambs’ throughout the ridiculous wholly babble tome!

    BAAAAH! And you still have faith!

  25. News of yet another devastating explosion on a Russian military base in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory:

    “Exiled Mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov said in an interview on TV on March 5 that two powerful explosions were heard in the northern part of the occupied city of Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, possibly killing hundreds of Russian soldiers stationed in the city.

    “In occupied Melitopol, powerful explosions are heard, two enemy bases were destroyed,” Fedorov said.

    According to the mayor, Russian losses as a result of the strike “amount to hundreds of people, but the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will provide more detailed information.”

    “Today is a weekend of hell for them, just like the whole last week of hell,” Fedorov also said.

    https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/mayor-two-areas-with-hundred-russian-soldiers-allegedly-destroyed-in-occupied-melitopol

    Whether they zombie-walk towards entrenched Ukrainian positions in ruined husks of towns like Bakhmut, or cower in their stolen hideouts “safely” behind the lines, Russian invaders in Ukraine are being killed in their hundreds and thousands. When will they say ‘Enough is enough’ and just drop their weapons and scurry off back home to Russia where they belong? How much more death do they want to reap and sow?

  26. Late Riser says:
    Monday, March 6, 2023 at 11:45 am
    Turnbull describes a chaotic process.
    Commissioners observes the processes were “amateurish and disastrous”.
    Turnbull says, we’re only human.
    —————————————————————————————

    I’m not sure that will be well received by the hundreds of thousands impacted nor the families of those who took their lives.

  27. Commissioner asks, AGS didn’t look at “averaging”, how could the advice have been on that?
    Turnbull stutters…

  28. Ukraine is not sitting back and doing nothing while it follows US advice to time their spring/summer counteroffensive to mesh properly with supply and training requirements for their enhanced NATO-supplied weapons systems:

    “Kraken, a Ukrainian special forces unit, reported on March 5 that it had destroyed a Russian military watchtower in Bryansk Oblast with a kamikaze drone.

    The watchtower was used by Russian border guards to monitor part of the Ukrainian border.

    A video published by Kraken shows the tower being destroyed on the second attempt.

    It is unclear exactly when exactly the tower was destroyed.”

    https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrainian-forces-destroy-military-watchtower-in-russia

    Here is the abovementioned video:

    https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1632524245296087040

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