Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)

Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings continue to fall steadily to earth, but the latest Newspoll registers very strong support for the government’s proposed super reforms.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 54-46, in from 55-45 last time. The primary votes are Labor 37% (down one), Coalition 35% (up one), Greens 10% (down one) and One Nation 7% (up one). Anthony Albanese’s approval rating is down two to 55% and his disapproval is up five to 38%, and his lead on preferred prime minister is in from 56-26 to 54-28. We are told that Peter Dutton’s net rating is at minus 11 – he was at 36% approval and 46% disapproval last time (UPDATE: Now 37% approval and 48% disapproval).

The poll also finds very strong support for the proposed changes to taxation of superannuation, which the question goes to some lengths to explain. Sixty-four per cent registered support for the idea, with only 29% opposed, with breakdowns viewable here finding the proposal seemingly scoring well with every constituency other than journalists.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1530.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,108 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 23
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  1. Here come The Greens!

    The Greens, locked in a battle with the government over the future of the climate change safeguard mechanism, dropped a point to 10 per cent – the minor party’s lowest level of support in this term of parliament, and more than two points down on its election result.

    Oh wait … maybe not. 🙂

  2. I think the internal ALP chatter starts once they get to 53-47. Remember Rudd got rolled for 52-48 in Newspoll.

  3. #Newspoll Preferred PM: Albanese 54 (-2) Dutton 28 (+2) #auspol

    After wall to wall coverage of Dutton by MSM including ABbloodyC
    I’d call that an epic fail on Dutton’s part.

  4. Scrptic @ #NaN Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 9:51 pm

    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Albanese 54 (-2) Dutton 28 (+2) #auspol

    After wall to wall coverage of Dutton by MSM including ABbloodyC
    I’d call that an epic fail on Dutton’s part.

    He probably sees it as a massive success.

    But you can just picture what goes on behind the scenes, can’t you? Dutton’s media advisor rings up the networks and harasses them into giving Dutton equal time to the PM, which they capitulate to because they have Stockholm Syndrome (ABC), or are fellow travellers.

  5. “I think the internal ALP chatter starts once they get to 53-47. Remember Rudd got rolled for 52-48 in Newspoll.”

    There are no Mark Arbibs or Bitar Carls left. Even Kimba Kitchen is no more.

    Silly L’arse: time for you to zip up your black plastic cosplay suit me thinks. Integrity is coming over with the riding crop and P1 one promises to bring fresh towels and mints from her eco-prepper compound. Taylormerde sends his apologies: an unfortunate chainsawing accident means there is no way he could possibly squeeze into his wetsuit this time around. … Meher may turn up, but he’s busy counting his franking credits.

  6. Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 9:50 pm

    I think the internal ALP chatter starts once they get to 53-47. Remember Rudd got rolled for 52-48 in Newspoll.
    ________
    I was thinking the other day that apart from the initial coup against Rudd, all subsequent coups were electorally beneficial to the party staging them. People can dislike them, but it’s hard to argue that they have not been effective.

  7. Of course the Tanya P article on the weekend was total coincidence – as was Albo coming out within 6 hours saying he was elected unopposed.

    As was Littlefinger saying last weekend how much he was loving his time in Parly and he had no intention of taking a diplomatic appointment.

    Nothing to see here, Nothing at all.

  8. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 9:45 pm

    2 down on Approval is a ‘plunge’!?!
    ____________

    Plunge, dive, plummet, tailspin…

    Yes, Albo’s goooooorrrrrnnnn!

    And I believe everything from Lars, Rex, P1……

  9. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 9:55 pm

    Scrptic @ #NaN Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 9:51 pm

    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Albanese 54 (-2) Dutton 28 (+2) #auspol

    After wall to wall coverage of Dutton by MSM including ABbloodyC
    I’d call that an epic fail on Dutton’s part.

    He probably sees it as a massive success.

    But you can just picture what goes on behind the scenes, can’t you? Dutton’s media advisor rings up the networks and harasses them into giving Dutton equal time to the PM, which they capitulate to because they have Stockholm Syndrome (ABC), or are fellow travellers.
    ____________

    1. Why stop at equal time? Just stop covering the, you know, govt, and go wall to wall Dutts!
    2. If they did impose Dutts on the public, how long before Labor 2PP hits 60?

  10. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 10:00 pm

    “I think the internal ALP chatter starts once they get to 53-47. Remember Rudd got rolled for 52-48 in Newspoll.”

    There are no Mark Arbibs or Bitar Carls left. Even Kimba Kitchen is no more.

    Silly L’arse: time for you to zip up your black plastic cosplay suit me thinks. Integrity is coming over with the riding crop and P1 one promises to bring fresh towels and mints from her eco-prepper compound. Taylormerde sends his apologies: an unfortunate chainsawing accident means there is no way he could possibly squeeze into his wetsuit this time around. … Meher may turn up, but he’s busy counting his franking credits.
    ____________

    Are you sure it was an accident?

  11. “1. Why stop at equal time? Just stop covering the, you know, govt, and go wall to wall Dutts!
    2. If they did impose Dutts on the public, how long before Labor 2PP hits 60?”

    _____

    I am reminded of the stage in The Deathly Hallows when the Ministry of Magic started saying positive things about Voldemort in its daily emergency bulletin.

  12. Lars Von Trier,
    Rolling Rudd was a strategic mistake of epic proportions for the ALP. Hopefully that’ll be a one in 50 years event.

  13. Snappy Tom @ #11 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 10:05 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 9:45 pm

    2 down on Approval is a ‘plunge’!?!
    ____________

    Plunge, dive, plummet, tailspin…

    Yes, Albo’s goooooorrrrrnnnn!

    And I believe everything from Lars, Rex, P1……

    Oh look. Another moron who insists in including me in their pathetic and feeble arguments for no discernible reason, since I have never posted on the topic.

    Colour me Surprised!

  14. nathsays:
    Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 9:51 pm
    apology accepted.

    “It is a dear and lovely disposition, and a most valuable one, that brush away indignities and discourtesies and seek and find the pleasanter features of an experience” (Mark Twain)

  15. Obviously, the Prime Minister needs to pay more attention to core economic issues, especially the cost of living and housing. For example, I haven’t heard anything real from the Government on the rental crisis (my own rent went up 20%). Dutton’ s hopeless and the Government should be much further ahead.

  16. Player One says:
    Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 10:26 pm

    Snappy Tom @ #15 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 10:12 pm

    … from her eco-prepper compound …

    It just burns you people, doesn’t it?
    ____________

    That was one of A_E’s!

    In other news, if the 54/46 number occurred uniformly in an election (never does), it would mean a 1.87% swing to Labor and a pick up of 7 seats.

  17. “It just burns you people, doesn’t it?”

    Nope, but I guess that having your risible virtue signalling gizmo poked fun of clearly gets under your skin. Good.

  18. @ Snappy Tom “In other news, if the 54/46 number occurred uniformly in an election (never does), it would mean a 1.87% swing to Labor and a pick up of 7 seats.”

    If the LNP lost 7 more seats they would have….. 6 seats outside Queensland.

  19. PRGuy

    A whopping two thirds of Australians back the Albanese Government closing super tax loopholes for millionaires — and over half of coalition voters back the change.
    ———-
    That’s funny! Ita’s ABC (American Broadcasting Company) is running programmes about how it’s brutally unjust to billionaires.

    (So i have read. The ABC is now almost unwatchable for me). I assume she is faithfully fulfilling her orders from the Morrison Government, to get it ready for sale to Fox Nooooos).

    In so many areas the ALP is as useless as tits on a bull. I acknowledge, being useless is considered a post-modern virtue.

    Sadly, Whitlam was the last ALP PM with an actual passion to support Australian culture .

  20. One closing comment for the night on AUKUS – there is a fair summary article on the sub choice in the Guardian.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/05/uk-us-or-a-hybrid-intense-speculation-as-australias-170bn-nuclear-submarine-choice-looms

    It quotes retired Adm Peter Briggs, who makes the argument Andrew Earlwood and I have raised before about the practical advantages of a choice other than the US SSNX or Virginia. The smaller, cheaper UK subs (even more so for the French alternative) would allow more SSNs to be built and operated for the same budget and total crew.

    This would also lend itself towards a longer term build, perhaps a continuous build cycle, assuming a lower per-anum spend, for the same cost.

  21. Rakali @ #32 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 10:44 pm

    (So i have read. The ABC is now almost unwatchable for me).

    That’s a shame. You are missing the “Stan Grant News”, the “Stan Grant’s Current Affairs”, “Fifty Shades of Stan Grant”, “Back in Time with Stan Grant”, “Q&A Hosted By Stan Grant, With Tonight’s Special Guest Stan Grant”, and “Stan Grant: Who Do You Think I Am?”

  22. The movements in party support since the last Newspoll are all within the margin of error (about 2.5%). A status quo result.

  23. On Newspoll the result is not bad, not great relative to Albo’s recent polls.

    I see no evidence the super change is the problem. It has been well received outside Gina, Rupert and Newscorpse. Inflation, interest rates and housing affordability are the obvious challenges for Labor now.

  24. Player One says:
    Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 10:53 pm
    Rakali @ #32 Sunday, March 5th, 2023 – 10:44 pm

    (So i have read. The ABC is now almost unwatchable for me).
    That’s a shame. You are missing the “Stan Grant News”, the “Stan Grant’s Current Affairs”, “Fifty Shades of Stan Grant”, “Back in Time with Stan Grant”, “Q&A Hosted By Stan Grant, With Tonight’s Special Guest Stan Grant”, and “Stan Grant: Who Do You Think I Am?”
    ——

    That’s Funny …… I’ve never found Stan Grant enjoyable to watch.

  25. “other than journalists”

    Missing is journalists minus independence and dictated to by media Chairs with their Party political bias

    Attempting to influence to the detriment of a functioning government


  26. nathsays:
    Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 10:02 pm
    Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 9:50 pm

    I think the internal ALP chatter starts once they get to 53-47. Remember Rudd got rolled for 52-48 in Newspoll.
    ________
    I was thinking the other day that apart from the initial coup against Rudd, all subsequent coups were electorally beneficial to the party staging them. People can dislike them, but it’s hard to argue that they have not been effective.

    Incorrect. Gillard was rolled by Rudd and ALP got 55 seats and lost election.

    Rolling the leader only works for LNP because of pliant media and because they made that act into a an art form.
    When LNP changes leaders they make people think that they voted for a new government and a better alternative.

  27. The Australians’s take:

    Super a win with voters but PM pays: Newspoll
    A majority of voters have embraced the government’s superannuation tax plan despite marking down Labor and Anthony Albanese.

    The punters have failed to follow Newscorp’s instructions and get outraged over reducing tax concessions* for multi millionaires. Meanwhile, Albo’s support (PPM, approval, 2PP) drops by amounts well within the margin of error, the 2PP to a level that would be Labor’s biggest landslide since 1946.

    * which is quite different to an attack on their super, let alone an attack on “yours” (their target audience, the “punters”)


  28. Lars Von Triersays:
    Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 10:04 pm
    Of course the Tanya P article on the weekend was total coincidence – as was Albo coming out within 6 hours saying he was elected unopposed.

    As was Littlefinger saying last weekend how much he was loving his time in Parly and he had no intention of taking a diplomatic appointment.

    Nothing to see here, Nothing at all.

    There are no snide remarks about how Rohsana Campbell is imposed on Aston voters like There were when KK was selected for Fowler (and what do you know. The Tu les of this world don’t have any support in the electorate. It was just noise.)
    The thing is KK was effective spokesperson when in opposition. But what is Ms. Campbell capable off? She was never thought fit even for Victorian state parliament but wrote some articles in Victorian news outlets.

    The hypocrisy is so thick we can’t see the other side.
    What people like Lars are saying is that the people of Australia doesn’t deserve any good governance. I don’t know why they hate Australia so much.

  29. The public is not listening to the corrupt libs/Nats propaganda media units

    Leadership spill within a year for federal liberal party leader ,the lib/nats combined primary vote will likely hit it’s peak of 35%, not going to get 40%, or higher with Dutton as leader

  30. The UK MoD’s latest update includes a scoop on Russia’s latest Wunderwaffe it hopes will turn the tide of the war its way:

    “4h ago
    20.08 AEDT
    The latest intelligence briefing from the UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) says recent evidence suggests an increase in “close combat” in Ukraine, probably due to Russia’s shortage of “munitions”.

    It also refers to Russian mobilised reservists being ordered to assault a Ukrainian concrete strong point armed with only “firearms and shovels”.

    These shovels are likely to be the outdated MPL-50 entrenching tools used in hand-to-hand combat.

    The MoD says their continued use highlights the “brutal and low-tech fighting” that has characterised much of the war.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/mar/05/russia-ukraine-war-live-kyivs-forces-repelling-attacks-as-russian-troops-try-to-surround-bakhmut

    The MPL-50 is actually a highly versatile piece of kit:

    “The main purpose of MPL-50 is entrenching, which is carried out at a rate of 0.1–0.5 m3/hour depending on the soil type and physical condition of the soldier. The spade can also be used as an axe, and one side of its blade is sharpened for this purpose, or as a hammer, with the flat of the blade as the working surface. It can serve as an oar for paddling on improvised rafts, as a frying pan for cooking food, and as a measuring device, as its length and width are standardized.

    Soviet Spetsnaz units had advanced training with the MPL-50, which they mostly used not for entrenching, but for close quarters combat. The spade is well balanced, which allows it to be used as a throwing weapon.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MPL-50

    Here’s how they look:

    I’ve seen authentic specimens available online for 2,800 rubles (about $60AUD), or similar at Bunnings for $19.98.

  31. “Former [British] Chief of the General Staff Gen Lord Richard Dannatt has said Ukraine could potentially mount a successful counter-offensive in late Spring or early Summer.

    He said:

    I think there’s every prospect that the Ukrainians can mount a successful counter offensive … late spring, early summer, and provided that’s planned properly and seen through and we continue to give them as much equipment and ammunition as they need, there is a chance of having some decisive outcome on the battlefield this year.

    …I’m not alone in believing that a few decisive blows struck at certain points along that very extended front on the Russian army could well have the effect of breaking the morale of the Russian soldier and breaking the back of the Russian army.

    You don’t have to defeat an army in detail everywhere on the battlefield. You’ve just got to convince enough soldiers that they’ve lost and when they think they’ve lost, they have lost.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/mar/05/russia-ukraine-war-live-kyivs-forces-repelling-attacks-as-russian-troops-try-to-surround-bakhmut

    Ret. Gen. Ben Hodges, former Supreme Commander of the US Army in Europe, has made similar points before about the inferior morale of Russian troops in Ukraine being a weakness the Ukrainian army could well exploit. General Dannatt takes this a little further, pointing out that this fragility means Ukraine can shatter the Russian front merely by hitting it hard in a few well-chosen places. This means Ukraine and its supporters need not be discouraged by the thought of so many kilometres of frontline having been fortified in depth by Russian occupiers.

  32. More from General Lord Richard Dannatt:

    “On Bakhmut he said:

    Strategically, it’s not very significant, but it’s achieved its aim of effectively being the anvil on which so many Russian lives have been broken, and therefore it makes complete sense for the Ukrainians now, to withdraw to a more defensible line and continue the battle there.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/mar/05/russia-ukraine-war-live-kyivs-forces-repelling-attacks-as-russian-troops-try-to-surround-bakhmut#top-of-blog

    Like the Ukrainian political and military authorities, as well as many military analysts, General Dannatt emphasises the crucial role being played by the infliction of maximum attrition upon advancing Russian forces by Ukraine’s defensive operations.

  33. “my rent has gone up 20%”

    Perhaps you could follow Sukkar’s advice and find a better job so you can buy a house

    But a question – or a couple of questions

    Was the 20% increase in one hit in the last 12 months and were cheaper rentals explored?

    And how long have you been a tenant, what was the commencement rent and what is the rent now?

    20% is $100- to $120-, or $600- to $720-, so which bracket?

    In the normal course Rents are adjusted upwards annually or on a change in tenancy – usually by the rate of inflation or to what the landlord can get (and there are Tribunals you can appeal to)

    Landlords invest into residential rental properties for a) the net return and b) the Capital Gain

    Then you get to supply and demand

    One of the questions is what level of home mortgage debt would the rental service (noting the Council Rates, Insurance, Utility supply and Repairs and Maintenance also need to be met so it is not just servicing the mortgage)?

    Noting also lenders will lend to 80% of the Loan to Valuation Ratio (unless you want the added expense of Mortgage Insurance)

    So where is the impediment?

    The lack of ability to accrue savings to meet the LVR?

    And why?

    Or the rental is less than the amount to service a modest mortgage?

    Or where you want to live and the price of property in those preferred locations?

    Or the attraction of shared rental for whatever reason?

    You always ask questions when throw away comments are made

    Why?

    What is the fuller story?

    Noting media never ask

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