Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)

Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings continue to fall steadily to earth, but the latest Newspoll registers very strong support for the government’s proposed super reforms.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor leading 54-46, in from 55-45 last time. The primary votes are Labor 37% (down one), Coalition 35% (up one), Greens 10% (down one) and One Nation 7% (up one). Anthony Albanese’s approval rating is down two to 55% and his disapproval is up five to 38%, and his lead on preferred prime minister is in from 56-26 to 54-28. We are told that Peter Dutton’s net rating is at minus 11 – he was at 36% approval and 46% disapproval last time (UPDATE: Now 37% approval and 48% disapproval).

The poll also finds very strong support for the proposed changes to taxation of superannuation, which the question goes to some lengths to explain. Sixty-four per cent registered support for the idea, with only 29% opposed, with breakdowns viewable here finding the proposal seemingly scoring well with every constituency other than journalists.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1530.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,108 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Also, Campbell is army. This is the sort of attitude from the landed gentry that points at a hill with an MG on it and says “I’ll send as many young men to die if needs be to secure that objective, I will have that glory”

    If I were secretary I would have focused my efforts on the digital transformation of the Human Services. I know for a FACT that as of a two years ago the central mainframe of Centrelink, called ISIS (30 year old big iron mainframe) produces accounting errors to the order of 500K to 1M a day.

    Fix that first before going after the poors

  2. I have had some discussions around the concept of being Indigenous or non-Indigenous.
    I don’t appreciate having my primary descriptor being non-something.
    The occasional use by Indigneous people of ‘whites’ (as opposed to Indigenous or Blaks) is ridiculous when we have millions of Australians who are not ‘whites’.
    I have been tending to describing myself as Australian. I could go to Dutch-Australian as a subset but am OK with ‘Australian’ or, more informally, ‘Aussie’.
    If someone wants to self-define as some other definition in opposition that is fine with me.

  3. Many people have wondered why ms Campbell is still in the public service.
    The government will have its reasons and I’m prepared to give them the benefit of doubt

  4. Thank you yabba. Moeba is shapely. I will remember that. My perspective on the argument is that that we (people) tend to label the unusual as interesting, hence when atheist is used it is because theist is the default and may remain unsaid. I hope for a reversal.

  5. Please put aside political partisanship. Kathryn Campbell still continues in the public service earning outsized salary. How or why?

  6. Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham
    #Morgan federal ALP 38 L-NP 33.5 Green 11.5 others 17.0 Morgan has a 2PP of 54.5 (-2) but my last-election estimate for these primaries is 55.8 (+0.3)
    · Mar 7, 2023

  7. frednksays:
    Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 4:32 pm
    Ms Campbell is having to face what she has done.
    —-

    I am not sure she accepts that what was done was wrong? Has she apologised.

    It is a little easier to face what was done in circumstances where presumably the Government is picking up the tab for legal representation and the salary continues to be deposited fortnightly. Is there any accountability in that?

  8. There are two possible formal processes in relation to Ms Campbell:

    1. Criminal action. She has not been charged. IMO she is unlikely to be charged.
    2. Process under APS Code of Conduct. For this to be triggered someone has to make a complaint. The RC has made no reference to a formal complaint made against Ms Campbell.

    It seems to me that, were she sacked tomorrow, she would be in with an excellent case on an unfair dismissal action.

    https://www.apsc.gov.au/publication/aps-values-and-code-conduct-practice

  9. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 4:27 pm
    Kathryn Campbell is so freaking smug! And so lacking in empathy for the victims.
    ———————————————————————————-

    Classic narcissist, loose with the lives of others, all care no responsibility. Humans meh.

  10. Guardian reporting ACT specific issues polling, that shows how out of his depth Albo is.

    Labor need to negotiate to get their legislation through the senate. There’s no chance the potato will talk, so it’s down to Labor needing the Greens, Thorpe (who has indicated she intends to vote with the Greens on climate) and one other, most likely Pocock.

    Canberrans overwhelmingly oppose Labor’s policies. By about a 12:1 ratio for overall, 9:1 on offsets, and a bit over 2:1 on coal and gas bans.

    Also some lessons in here for the Greens, who are doubtless hoping to pick up Pocock’s seat when he’s done with it. On coal and as bans, the Greens need to move further if they want to keep up with the ACT community. While 23% agree with the Green position, 40% want the Greens to go further, while only 28% want the Greens to go less far.

    82% of Canberrans believe polluting projects should not be able to offset 100% of their emissions via carbon offsets, only 9% believe in 100% carbon offsets for projects
    56% believe polluting projects should have to directly reduce their emissions, not use carbon offsets
    26% believe projects should be able to offset some but not all emissions
    85% believe the Senate should improve legislation; 7% believe Senate should pass legislation “as is”
    61% believe it would be better for the Senate to improve climate legislation even if takes longer, while 30% believe climate law should be passed as is so it comes into operation sooner
    63% agree that the Commonwealth Government should stop new gas & coal projects, 28% believe new projects should be allowed to go ahead, 8% are unsure
    40% believe the Government should stop new gas & coal projects and start to phase down production from existing projects
    23% believe the Government should stop new projects, but allow existing projects to continue operating as is
    8.4% Unsure / don’t know

    Albo needs to respect the mandate given to the Greens and Pocock and get out of the way.

  11. No doubt a formal complaint will eventually be made about Ms Campbell. If not by one of the current Services Australia employees who have given evidence already, then by someone else.

  12. @JenAuthor:
    “My study reinforced my decision that religion/faith … whatever, is and always has been, a massive con by people who either have power or want power over the others in their society.”

    With the caveat of ORGANISED religion I agree. It’s hard to study history without seeing the same patterns repeat of organised religion used to keep masses in line and following the High Priest, Pope, Emperor, King or whoever and the same in their holy texts. Even if there is something well meaning at the bottom of it. So much of it is clearly the limited thinking of small-minded power grabbers of 2000 years ago and not the thinking of any kind of omnipotent omniscient being.

    To use Christianity as an example, Jesus’ teachings contain much which is tremendously humanistic even now let alone for the era he lived in. But look how the Bible and established Churches then buries that under layers of layers of rules and rituals and hierarchies and hate for gay people and women and such.

    Anglicans subscribe to a branch of Christianity that branched off specifically so King Henry VIII could take new wives. So holy!

    To me it’s all pretty much Scientology that just happens to have been around a lot longer.

    As I said though, I draw the distinction between organised religious structures and belief in general. I don’t believe in a God but I have no problem with people following a philosophy in the name of a God. You can definitely do worse than “do unto others as thy would have done to you”. I can’t actually disprove a greater power exists and people are welcome to believe in one as long as they don’t try to force their beliefs onto me or into law.

    I don’t however need to respect beliefs that an omnipotent or near omnipotent being cares about what food you eat on Fridays or that it demands that you discriminate against your fellow human being on the basis of their gender or sexuality or other such petty and/or nasty things. A God that really demanded Abraham sacrifice his son is clearly not a real God, and if it was then would not be worth worshipping either, what a needy asshole.

  13. Because The Greens’ tail should wag the Labor government dog and Canberrans are soooo representative of the rest of Australia. Not.

  14. Given the headlines today in the disgraceful Nine Papers how many on this board are ready (or will be ready) for war with China in a few years time. I can only hope that the insanity and irresponsibility of todays effort is the end for any of that lot to be taken seriously. I doubt it though.

  15. Voice Endeavour,
    I lived in Canberra for 21 years. I like it, but the people are out of touch. It’s easy to email you’re local member and say “kill the coal mines”. It’s harder to get out of the bubble, go to any of the mine sites, and look 40 year old men in the face and tell them you think they shouldn’t have a job right now.

    There is a gross impracticality and heartlessness in the kill coal now crowd. They are just like people who start wars and then cut funding from veterans affairs.

  16. Kathryn Campbell sounds like she knows that her ‘illustrious’ career in the Public Service is over. Dead, buried and cremated.

  17. @c@tmomma – welcome to democracy in Australia.

    Australia has suffered for decades as a result of the large amount of marginal Qld seats, and the lack of ACT marginal seats.

    In this current term, the ACT is kingmaker.

    Deal with it.

  18. ‘Voice Endeavour says:
    Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 4:41 pm

    Guardian reporting ACT specific issues polling, that shows how out of his depth Albo is.
    …’
    ————————
    Classic ecofascism in action.

    Albanese is running a majority government elected by the Australian people just 9 months ago. He was perfectly clear what his climate policies were going to be.

    So were the Greens. 88% of Australians rejected the Greens policies.

    IMO, Bandt should act like he talks and block Labor’s climate action policies. He has consistently said they are not enough, and, indeed, will INCREASE emissions.

    This would set up a DD that Albanese will definitely go to.

    #thereisonlyonepollthatcounts

  19. Arky,

    Oh, and P1, I agree with you on another thing – that if a document can be generated by ChatGPT then it is probably not worth much. It also ensures that rather than new thought being given, all existing errors and prejudices continue to get baked in.

    Asking a chat AI to list 5 criteria for such and such a business process or IT application, then tweaking it into a request for funding for project initiation doesn’t invalidate the document. Probity and governance are still important when handling cash. It’s just a smarter use of the time of the author.

    I demonstrated earlier today I could write a few hundred word media release in a minute using ChatGPT. Do we now just say, oh well I guess media releases have had their day.

    It’s just a tool to get content on specific topics quickly.

    I’m sure you don’t carve letters out of wood for your movable type printer.

  20. Voice Endeavour,
    Hey I live in Tassie, I get it. But there’s an impracticality there that will have serious impact on every part of the economy. And the greens won’t answer that question.

  21. ‘yabba says:
    Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 4:44 pm

    The Campbell person just said anythink.’
    ——————————
    Goes nicely with her ‘would of’ earlier in the day.

  22. There is a gross impracticality and heartlessness in the kill coal now crowd.

    There is a gross ignorance, recklessness and arrogance in the fossil fuel industry crowd toward the sustainability of the life on this planet

  23. Lol Voice Endeavour.

    Have you not seen the polling of Greens’ voters, the ones you contemptuously dismiss because they are not Canberrans, it seems, which says that they want The Greens in the Senate to deal productively with the Labor government when it comes to the Safeguards Mechanism because they do not want a repeat of the CPRS debacle. It appears you are incapable of dealing with that. 😐

  24. I gave Pocock my second preference over Seselja.
    If Pocock serially thwarts climate action, and if Seselja does not run again, a lot of Labor tactical voters would be reviewing their choices.
    Only five years and three months to go!
    Unless there is a DD, of course.

  25. I love that BW thinks a DD could fix Labor’s problem.

    You just don’t get it. Labor has no chance of receiving a senate majority.

    Currently, they need Greens (inc Thorpe on environmental) + Pocock to pass legislation.

    A DD might leave them in the same situation. It might get them able to pass legislation with just the Greens. Or, more likely it puts them reliant on Greens + Pocock + a number of minors.

    Labor know that a DD won’t help them. They simply need to negotiate, because they will never win 50%+1 in the senate

  26. 32% Labor would NOT be in Govt without the Greens/Teal voters preferences.

    Labor owes the Greens/Teals considerable climate policy concessions.

  27. ‘Voice Endeavour says:
    Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 4:54 pm

    I love that BW thinks a DD could fix Labor’s problem.
    ….’
    ————————————
    Every single possible alternative outcome would be superior to the current situation where everything significant is either being blocked or delayed.

  28. @BW – 85% of Canberra support Pocock’s stance of pushing for amendments on the climate legislation. 7% support Labor’s Bill ‘as is’.

    There may be an issue that kills Pocock’s campaign in 2 ish years. But this ain’t it.

  29. The Greens’ polling is back down to 10% in Newspoll. I wonder why that is? Arrogance and inability to compromise perhaps?

  30. I can think of few things I would want to do less than to go back to the polls this soon after the last federal election, especially with a referendum later this year and a council and state election due next year.

  31. Rex Douglas,
    It’s not the greens that gave those preferences. Its the voters. You should learn the difference. because the Greens party seems to take their voters for mugs. Everyone who voted second preference labor, said with their vote that something is better than nothing. Yet the Greens party take the party line. My way or the highway.

    Who owes who….really!

  32. Campbell is not a junior burger. People at her level are not usually that hard to move on as long as you pay their termination clause out. Secretary of a Department is not a lifetime role and governments often move them on.

    Tony Abbott axed 3 public service department secretaries the moment he got sworn in.

    If Albo and co want to get rid of Campbell they can.

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